New Bull Market!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
dh
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by dh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:52 pm

jajlrajrf wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm
I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down.
You are on record (a guarantee of movement up or down). I am going to hold you to that :sharebeer

During this time when the magnitude of short-term movements are greater (both up and down) than at any time since the early 1930s, I think it is interesting that people love labeling market movements with clever phrases ... my new favorite is every bear puts out a little honey. This could be a bear market rally, or perhaps a bull run to all time highs. Mr. Market does what it does, and I have an asset allocation ready for whatever comes. At times like this, I thank the Bogleheads who have taught me to have a plan and ignore the noise. However, I am going to watch :shock: what happens next so I can measure jajlrajrf's bold guarantee.

Be well my friends!

wkimdds
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by wkimdds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:31 pm

Just to add about new bull market, my opinion is this is a bull trap (and yes im staying the course regardless)

We have 3 million people on EI, over 90k cases (and soon to be worse. Most likely #2 in the world as I know chinese are lying about their numbers) and severe economic impact. I am lucky to have emergency fund but many people live paycheck to paycheck. Think what can happen to these people if this prolongs. QE will fail eventually.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by whereskyle » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:31 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.

If the doomsdayers are right, maybe it'll be the shortest bull market ever, which we could facetiously dub The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020.

Or it could really be the start of a long bull.

Nobody knows nuthin.
Oh that definition of a bull market is bulls*** in my opinion. For me the bear lasts until we reach the prior peak. Anything less and we're getting ahead of ourselves. Hilarious how CNBC is running "Biggest gain since 1931/33!" Could there be a more foreboding headline?
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing, and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle

fusspot
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by fusspot » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:33 pm

Here is the truth.wait for it.....................................................Who the hell knows.

fusspot
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by fusspot » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:34 pm

Forgot to add Throw a dart!

Nowizard
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Nowizard » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:44 pm

Well, at least these posts are generally more enjoyable than many over the past week, even if celebration is premature, at least in my opinion.

Tim

rudeboy
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by rudeboy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:44 pm

This thing shot up 20% before the market timers could find the "ON" switch to their Rube Goldberg machines.

This may well be a false rally, but ask yourself: if you didn't predict this, what makes you think your future predictions will fare any better?

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:46 pm

rudeboy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:44 pm
This thing shot up 20% before the market timers could find the "ON" switch to their Rube Goldberg machines.
The bear put on a bull costume to lure the market timers back so he can nomnomnom.
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Call_Me_Op » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:50 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:13 pm
Don’t we need to get past previous market top before new bull market declared?
No.
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vipertom1970
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by vipertom1970 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:51 pm

up 142K today....beer on me even for the end of the world guys :sharebeer

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by grettman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:00 pm

My prediction: tomorrow’s close will be different than today’s close. Prove me wrong with science.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Mr.BB » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:02 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Wait till they post the GDP numbers. That will be a wake up call. Everything's going depend on how quickly people can go back to work... nothing else.
Nope, GDP numbers will be terrible but predictable and most likely priced in.

Stop thinking short term. You can’t predict the market, nobody can
I'm not thinking short-term That's just part of the road trip. I don't think anybody has any idea where those GDP numbers are going to fall except very low, and since I don't think anybody's seen anything quite like this I don't think they know how to price it.
"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit."

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watchnerd
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:03 pm

jajlrajrf wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm
I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down.
That's already priced in.

:sharebeer
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by EFF_fan81 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:08 pm

mac808 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm
I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]."

It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the market. The US Government is not willing to let asset prices fall below certain levels, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. (I'll withhold judgment on whether they should, or not.) They learned from the GFC and wrote the blank check in record time, this time.

There is no free lunch, so as the Fed increasingly pumps, that money will find its way somewhere, sort of how the inflation of the last decade hid in health care, education, housing, and financial asset prices generally. That will be where the wind is sown for future generations. But the Fed can, and may, absolutely guarantee that the S&P 500 remains above a certain level come high or hell water, or that highly-leveraged airlines don't go bankrupt, or that financial institutions that make bad bets remain solvent. As a result there's little point in trying to analyze fundamentals during a macro crisis like this.

I'm readjusting my AA and trading strategies based on this fairly obvious realization that I'm sure many people have had before me.
Thanks. I think this is a very prescient post. Stocks cannot effectively "go all the way to zero" because our government (and most governments) would simply pump enough money out to prevent that (or just buy stocks directly). This creates inflation risk (including hidden inflation, as you note), which makes nominal bonds relatively riskier. I think this is (and will) have a lot of impacts, some of which I can guess and some of which I can't. But I'll note that things like "age in bonds" have now been replaced by "90-100% stocks until you are 40," so I wonder if common wisdom is picking up on the ramifications of these moves?

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watchnerd
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:11 pm

Mr.BB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:02 pm
I'm not thinking short-term That's just part of the road trip. I don't think anybody has any idea where those GDP numbers are going to fall except very low, and since I don't think anybody's seen anything quite like this I don't think they know how to price it.
Corporate earnings will be public, soon, and for those companies that are debt-dependent, they're already having to provide guidance to creditors and ratings agencies.

At tech megacorp, finance is busy doing revenue recasts and ramping up acquisition shopping lists to scoop up weaker players on the cheap.
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watchnerd
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:20 pm

Along with stocks going up today...

Long Treasuries are up, too, 50 bps.

Hmmm.

Everything green makes me suspicious.
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nps
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by nps » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:33 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:26 pm
I have never liked the definition of a 20% rise from a low. Didn't we have several rallies over 20% during the GFC?
I don't think so

wkimdds
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by wkimdds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:42 pm

nps wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:33 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:26 pm
I have never liked the definition of a 20% rise from a low. Didn't we have several rallies over 20% during the GFC?
I don't think so

I see some in 13% rise but not 20%

saintsfan342000
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by saintsfan342000 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:49 pm

It's the biggest 3-day rally since 1931. Markets never went back down again after that, and the depression ended, right?

Greg in Idaho
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Greg in Idaho » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:25 pm

aaahhhhh....VIX

striker79
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by striker79 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:36 pm

Highest jobless claims in the history of our nation and peak of the coronavirus is still 3-4 weeks away. Yes, this is definitely the start of a bull market.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:39 pm

striker79 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:36 pm
Highest jobless claims in the history of our nation and peak of the coronavirus is still 3-4 weeks away. Yes, this is definitely the start of a bull market.
IT'S A TRAP!
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by mister_sparkle » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:09 pm

striker79 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:36 pm
Highest jobless claims in the history of our nation and peak of the coronavirus is still 3-4 weeks away. Yes, this is definitely the start of a bull market.
+also, the U.S. now the nation with the most confirmed cases of COVAD-19, yet the market jumped almost 6% today.

We're living in Bizarro world.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Dottie57 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 pm

mister_sparkle wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:09 pm
striker79 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:36 pm
Highest jobless claims in the history of our nation and peak of the coronavirus is still 3-4 weeks away. Yes, this is definitely the start of a bull market.
+also, the U.S. now the nation with the most confirmed cases of COVAD-19, yet the market jumped almost 6% today.

We're living in Bizarro world.
+1

fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:30 pm

Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:00 pm
Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Beach wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:49 pm
Where is the good news about life returning to normal? I can't believe this is the start of the V
Well if you look back at 2009 the good news came way after March 2009.
I guess so, this just seems like the evidence should be crystal clear and in real time. Life returning to normal, people being able to go out and spend money. Hourly workers back on the job. Toilet paper on the shelves....
But once it became that obvious, it would be obvious to everyone. The market always looks forward to predict when things will get better, it doesn't wait until things are actually better. That would make it way to easy to make money after a downturn -- just wait until all is clear and then back up the truck. There is positive news out of UK and Italy, and the market can be assume that will happen here as well. We are almost two weeks into the social distancing, which is when we should start seeing the positive affects from it.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by mac808 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:35 pm

EFF_fan81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:08 pm
mac808 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm
I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]."

It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the market. The US Government is not willing to let asset prices fall below certain levels, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. (I'll withhold judgment on whether they should, or not.) They learned from the GFC and wrote the blank check in record time, this time.

There is no free lunch, so as the Fed increasingly pumps, that money will find its way somewhere, sort of how the inflation of the last decade hid in health care, education, housing, and financial asset prices generally. That will be where the wind is sown for future generations. But the Fed can, and may, absolutely guarantee that the S&P 500 remains above a certain level come high or hell water, or that highly-leveraged airlines don't go bankrupt, or that financial institutions that make bad bets remain solvent. As a result there's little point in trying to analyze fundamentals during a macro crisis like this.

I'm readjusting my AA and trading strategies based on this fairly obvious realization that I'm sure many people have had before me.
Thanks. I think this is a very prescient post. Stocks cannot effectively "go all the way to zero" because our government (and most governments) would simply pump enough money out to prevent that (or just buy stocks directly). This creates inflation risk (including hidden inflation, as you note), which makes nominal bonds relatively riskier. I think this is (and will) have a lot of impacts, some of which I can guess and some of which I can't. But I'll note that things like "age in bonds" have now been replaced by "90-100% stocks until you are 40," so I wonder if common wisdom is picking up on the ramifications of these moves?
You hit upon one of the fundamental changes I think has occurred or will occur as a result of the Fed's new policies: the long-term value of equities will increase relative to bonds given there's now an Invisible Floor on equities during a macro crisis. I've reduced (but not eliminated) the bonds portion of my long-term AA as a result.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by nedsaid » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:39 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.

If the doomsdayers are right, maybe it'll be the shortest bull market ever, which we could facetiously dub The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020.

Or it could really be the start of a long bull.

Nobody knows nuthin.
Yes, technically we can call this a bull but I still treat this like a bear. Bear markets can have ferocious rallies. My sense is that everything will roar back once the uncertainties caused by the Coronavirus dissipate. But we don't know for certain. I am just relieved that we seem to have hit a bottom for now and have bounced back somewhat from the bottom. Still a long ways to go.
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:40 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 pm
Mr.BB wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Wait till they post the GDP numbers. That will be a wake up call. Everything's going depend on how quickly people can go back to work... nothing else.
Nope, GDP numbers will be terrible but predictable and most likely priced in.

Stop thinking short term. You can’t predict the market, nobody can
Absolutely agree. People are acting as if we just got back to the new highs. We are still 25% down from February 19. That still prices in quite a hit on GDP. But I think the market believes that this slowdown will be temporary -- I tend to agree. Looking out to future years of earnings and using a DCF model, a temporary slowdown simply does not warrant a massive drop in prices. This is not like other bear markets where there were more structural problems with the economy.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by dziuniek » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:44 pm

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:04 pm
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm
Yeah. The next several weeks look bad what about several months from now, and beyond? The market looks at all of that. I'm not saying we've bottomed - no idea - but if you wait until the good news really starts hitting, usually you've missed the bottom.
Not only the bottom but probably missed a 20-30% recovery.

I wonder what the news were back in December 2009 when the markets were up +65% from the bottom.
Probably filled with H1N1 stuff... and bull stuff!

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by brianH » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:44 pm

Random Musings wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:32 pm
For Bogleheads, I'm surprised of the lack of analytics, but maybe people watch too much news that stresses important facts less and relies on sensationalism more.
Agreed. Even considering the absolute worst case scenario, there's no reason for the level of fear and panic. As the numbers have been becoming more clear, the original estimates are obviously overblown and the efforts made to contain it are largely working.

The number of posts that are nothing more than disaster fantasy or a sick form of schadenfreude are troubling. We're certainly not out of the woods yet, but the market has clearly started to realize that we're nowhere near how this was originally sold.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by mrspock » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 pm

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.

If the doomsdayers are right, maybe it'll be the shortest bull market ever, which we could facetiously dub The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020.

Or it could really be the start of a long bull.

Nobody knows nuthin.
This is great, after buying last Thursday, I’m down just 16.4% overall. Very floofy, huggable bear market!

For reference, this is about where my account was in November of 2019. Not that dire when I think of it this way.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by madbrain » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:33 pm

jajlrajrf wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm
I know a lot of you are confused by the signals the market has given, but I have done a LOT of technical analysis and I can tell you that all of my experience allows me to GUARANTEE you that the market will, in the coming days, move up or down.
You might still be wrong on that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/12/the-dow ... ee-it.html

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JoMoney
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by JoMoney » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:35 pm

I'm of the opinion that cash is a horrible place to be, unless you're planning on consuming it pretty quickly.
I expect other assets will have slowed/contracted, with reduced productivity... but they keep making more and more dollars, while productive assets don't just get created out of thin air.... I mean, I suppose Investment Banks can create worthless IPOs to feed an insatiable stock market, but I don't think that's where we are today with the supply/demand.
The economy is contracting, but we're in a dollar bubble, it's just hard to measure since that's the unit of account.
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by White Coat Investor » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:46 pm

huskerfan1414 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:19 pm
This is insane.

Either the virus stuff is overblown and the market somehow knows it, and this is going to be a V.

or the market is walking up a mountain blind and is going to step off the ledge and go tumbling.

At this point I don't think there's a "medium" or "in between". I don't see how anyone can forecast anything other than great news or terrible news at this point.

But I know nothing! This has to be unprecedented.
I expect the high volatility to continue. Maybe we can have three or four bear markets this Spring.
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by William Million » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:58 pm

If past is our guide (2000-1/2008-9), bear market will fall to 45-55% off peaks. Rapid ups-and-downs in the meantime ideal for day traders.

At 45-55% down, stocks will be too good to pass up (once earnings start to come back).

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Pencilskirt » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:37 pm

mac808 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm
I don't think we're trading on news of the virus any more. This is now about US Government stimulus and the Fed's willingness to intervene. "Good news is good news and bad news is good news [because it means more stimulus]."

It dawned on me this morning that there is an Invisible Floor in the market. The US Government is not willing to let asset prices fall below certain levels, regardless of the underlying fundamentals. (I'll withhold judgment on whether they should, or not.) They learned from the GFC and wrote the blank check in record time, this time.

There is no free lunch, so as the Fed increasingly pumps, that money will find its way somewhere, sort of how the inflation of the last decade hid in health care, education, housing, and financial asset prices generally. That will be where the wind is sown for future generations. But the Fed can, and may, absolutely guarantee that the S&P 500 remains above a certain level come high or hell water, or that highly-leveraged airlines don't go bankrupt, or that financial institutions that make bad bets remain solvent. As a result there's little point in trying to analyze fundamentals during a macro crisis like this.

I'm readjusting my AA and trading strategies based on this fairly obvious realization that I'm sure many people have had before me.

This is the “realization” I had this morning. I put realization in quotes because I’m not an expert. Anyhow, that was my gut conclusion after wrestling over the incongruous events of this morning.

I became further convinced when I saw the extreme consistency of the DOW in today’s chart.

It’ll be very interesting to see if there are no more dramatic drops next week.

My mind boggles at how expensive this could get if the Fed continues this “whatever it takes” tactic for as long as required.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by AlohaJoe » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:02 am

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.
Sounds like nonsense. A 20% rise isn't the start of a bull market. I don't think that definition has ever been used before this week.

When all those articles talked about the "10 year anniversary of the bull market" last year none of them used a 20% rise as the beginning of the bull market. They all use the bottom.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/03/inve ... index.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull- ... 2019-03-06
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/busi ... rsary.html

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by unclescrooge » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:51 am

William Million wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:58 pm
If past is our guide (2000-1/2008-9), bear market will fall to 45-55% off peaks. Rapid ups-and-downs in the meantime ideal for day traders.

At 45-55% down, stocks will be too good to pass up (once earnings start to come back).
If anything, history tells us people overestimate the downside and miss the boat on the upside.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:04 am

William Million wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:58 pm
If past is our guide (2000-1/2008-9), bear market will fall to 45-55% off peaks. Rapid ups-and-downs in the meantime ideal for day traders.

At 45-55% down, stocks will be too good to pass up (once earnings start to come back).
If only it were so predictable

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by F150HD » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:09 am

why is this turning into a virus testing thread?

This is a good spot for that discussion: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=305217

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by peskypesky » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:23 am

I think the bull market was short-lived.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by Stef » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:36 am

So is this the shortest bull market ever?

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by rudeboy » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:39 am

Stef wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:36 am
So is this the shortest bull market ever?
It has to go down 20% before it is no longer a bull.

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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:41 am

A number of posts discussing coronavirus only have been removed.

General discussions go here: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Also see: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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UpsetRaptor
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:28 am

AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:02 am
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:15 pm
This is somewhat funny, but the DOW just hit a bull market. Today's close is up 21.3% from Monday's close. S&P still a couple % away.
Sounds like nonsense. A 20% rise isn't the start of a bull market. I don't think that definition has ever been used before this week.

When all those articles talked about the "10 year anniversary of the bull market" last year none of them used a 20% rise as the beginning of the bull market. They all use the bottom.

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/03/inve ... index.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull- ... 2019-03-06
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/09/busi ... rsary.html
Once stocks go up 20% from a low, that's technically a bull, and you go back to the low to get its start. So those articles are correct, once stocks popped 20% off the March 2009 low, that March 2009 low retroactively became the start of that bull market, which ended up going on for years.

And so once it went up 20% this week, the DOW technically entered bull market territory and The Great Coronavirus Bull Market of March 2020 started with the low of Monday's close of 18,584. The DOW is still in that technical bull until we drop 20% from any high, be it yesterday's close or a future one.

S&P is still in a technical bear because it just missed the threshold of 20% jump. Sure, it's all fairly arbitrary and almost humorous in the current environment but hey, I didn't make the definitions, someone else did.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bullmarket.asp
the most common definition of a bull market is a situation in which stock prices rise by 20%, usually after a drop of 20% and before a second 20% decline

AlohaJoe
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by AlohaJoe » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:20 am

UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:28 am
Once stocks go up 20% from a low, that's technically a bull, and you go back to the low to get its start.
Nope, I'm still not buying it. It is still nonsense. After dropping 40% between September 1929 and November 1929, the market then proceeded to rise between November 13, 1929, and January 3, 1930. The stock market went up 20%, from 17.66 to 21.23. No one, absolutely no one says the Wall Street Crash of 1929 only lasted 2 months and then talks about the "bull market of 1929". Simply has never happened.

I can point out many, many similar examples in the data that no one has ever called a bull market before.

There is no "technically" when it comes to the definition of bears & bulls. It isn't like the numbers are based on anything. They are just round numbers that someone made up 15 or 20 years ago and with the rise of CNBC and 401ks, everyone started repeating them as gospel.

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UpsetRaptor
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by UpsetRaptor » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:02 pm

AlohaJoe wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:20 am
UpsetRaptor wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:28 am
Once stocks go up 20% from a low, that's technically a bull, and you go back to the low to get its start.
Nope, I'm still not buying it. It is still nonsense. After dropping 40% between September 1929 and November 1929, the market then proceeded to rise between November 13, 1929, and January 3, 1930. The stock market went up 20%, from 17.66 to 21.23. No one, absolutely no one says the Wall Street Crash of 1929 only lasted 2 months and then talks about the "bull market of 1929". Simply has never happened.

I can point out many, many similar examples in the data that no one has ever called a bull market before.
Whether you personally happen to buy it or not, no skin off my back, but 20% rise is really the most commonly utilized definition for a "bull market". There were actually a few theoretical bull markets through the depression era.

Image

Source: https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pdf

MotoTrojan
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:20 am

nps wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:33 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:26 pm
I have never liked the definition of a 20% rise from a low. Didn't we have several rallies over 20% during the GFC?
I don't think so
Found it. Quite a few in the tech crash as well if you trust this.

https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/co ... ame=iossmf

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nps
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Re: New Bull Market!

Post by nps » Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:38 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:20 am
nps wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:33 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:26 pm
I have never liked the definition of a 20% rise from a low. Didn't we have several rallies over 20% during the GFC?
I don't think so
Found it. Quite a few in the tech crash as well if you trust this.

https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/co ... ame=iossmf
Nice find! Looks like it did happen once during GFC. I took a look at the news around that time and found this mention from the Wall Street Journal on January 7, 2009 (the day after the local peak):

Though major indexes' gains from their November lows so far fit the traditional definition of a bull market, up 20%, few participants are interpreting them that way. Many say the market's recent rebound is a short-term bounce in a broader bear market that remains under way.

"People are still thinking of all the money they lost," during the market's full-year swoon for 2008, which represented the worst annual loss since the Great Depression, says strategist Brian Gendreau, of ING Investment Management. "When I talk to clients, I see no greed out there, as you'd expect in a bull market. People are fearful."


https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123128801585159197

MotoTrojan
Posts: 9121
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: New Bull Market!

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:22 am

nps wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:38 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:20 am
nps wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:33 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:26 pm
I have never liked the definition of a 20% rise from a low. Didn't we have several rallies over 20% during the GFC?
I don't think so
Found it. Quite a few in the tech crash as well if you trust this.

https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/co ... ame=iossmf
Nice find! Looks like it did happen once during GFC. I took a look at the news around that time and found this mention from the Wall Street Journal on January 7, 2009 (the day after the local peak):

Though major indexes' gains from their November lows so far fit the traditional definition of a bull market, up 20%, few participants are interpreting them that way. Many say the market's recent rebound is a short-term bounce in a broader bear market that remains under way.

"People are still thinking of all the money they lost," during the market's full-year swoon for 2008, which represented the worst annual loss since the Great Depression, says strategist Brian Gendreau, of ING Investment Management. "When I talk to clients, I see no greed out there, as you'd expect in a bull market. People are fearful."


https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123128801585159197
Nice find yourself. The first part seems to describe the situation we are in now quite well.

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