Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

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ThereAreNoGurus
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:34 pm

knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:30 pm
surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:12 pm
njdealguy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:47 pm
USA in first place now, ahead of China & Italy for Coronavirus cases
That was fast.
#1 with a bullet.
but not #1 in deaths
We're not even close to the top in terms of per capita deaths or cases.
Trade the news and you will lose.

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knpstr
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by knpstr » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:38 pm

surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:33 pm
Be patient.
I'm not saying we won't ever reach #1 in deaths, either. But #1 in cases but not deaths means we have a CFR on the lower side, which is actually good news.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

KlangFool
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KlangFool » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:39 pm

Folks,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pQYtc0poxE&t=3439s
20:10
Latest New York State numbers:

3/24/2020 25,665 cases 3,234 hospitalized 756 ICU beds
3/25/2020 30,811 cases,3,805 Hospitalized, 888 ICU patients
3/26/2020 37,358 cases, 5,327 Hospitalized, 1,290 ICU patients, 1,517 patients discharged.

KlangFool

Irenaeus
Posts: 69
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Irenaeus » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm

Here is an article on some of the tension between the fight against the virus and the economic hardship of the fight:

India's poorest 'fear hunger may kill us before coronavirus'

Here is an excerpt:
A cobbler, who didn't want to give his name, said he had been "polishing people's shoes at the railway station in Allahabad for years, but nobody is showing up now".

He said he doesn't even know why people have stopped travelling.

"I don't know what is happening. Not many people are coming to the station these days. I know that some curfew is going on, but I don't know why," he said.

Vinod Prajapati, who sells water bottles in the same area, intervenes in the conversation.

"I know everything about coronavirus. It's very dangerous, the whole world is struggling. Most people who can afford and have a place to stay are indoors. But for people like us, the choice is between safety and hunger. What should we pick?" he asks.

webbie90
Posts: 36
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by webbie90 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:45 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:39 pm
Folks,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pQYtc0poxE&t=3439s
20:10
Latest New York State numbers:

3/24/2020 25,665 cases 3,234 hospitalized 756 ICU beds
3/25/2020 30,811 cases,3,805 Hospitalized, 888 ICU patients
3/26/2020 37,358 cases, 5,327 Hospitalized, 1,290 ICU patients, 1,517 patients discharged.

KlangFool
Yikes, if we consider hospitalization and ICU patients to be harder endpoints, they jumped 40% and 45% in one day. They aren't dependent on doing comprehensive testing, or skewed by missing asymptomatic cases.

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ram
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ram » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:47 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:50 pm
Is there a simple way to relate epidemiological statistics to individual statistics? So far, we've discussed percentages of:
- exposed people
- symptomatic people
- those needing ICU
- those needing ventilators
- those dying --
depending on the locality's place on the curve and the measures such as shelter in place.

But let's consider individuals:
- Alan is a physician at a major hospital. He sees dozens of patients many of whom test positive. His PEP is inadequate.
- Bob is a janitor in the same hospital as Alan.
- Cynthia takes a densely packed bus every day.
- David visits shops 2-3 times/week and occasionally bumps into other people. Otherwise, he stays at home.
- Eva visits shops once a week and maintains 6ft distance.
- Frank never leaves home, has everything delivered, and thoroughly disinfects it.

Clearly, A, B, C, D, E, and F have different probabilities of being exposed to a virus. Probabilities are decreasing from the highest for A to the lowest for F.

When they do catch a virus, they catch different quantities of viruses:
- For the same level of the hospital contamination, A is catching 100 viruses, but B is catching only 30 viruses.
- When they encounter the same carrier in a store, D is catching 10 viruses, but E is catching only 4 viruses.

In other words, some people are in a high-risk group where both the probability of exposure and the quantity of viruses are high. Other people are in intermediate and low risk groups.

1. For those of us who are not in medical profession and follow the guidance of shelter in place, is there much difference in risk between behaving like David vs. Eva?
2. Is Frank much safer than Eva?
3. If Eva occasionally catches 4 units of viruses, is her immune system more likely to fight it--and develop immunity--than if she were A or B?

Victoria
No.

Some data like that may come out 12-24 months later. It will be along the lines of:
33 % doctors in a New York hospital with an average exposure of 3000 COVID patient days (30 patients /day x 100 days = 3000 COVID days) got COVID.

11 % of doctors in a rural midwest hospital with an average exposure of 600 COVID days got COVID.

The relative risk in the 2 groups was 3.0 ( 33/11)

......A lot of statistical data.....

Summary: Our study shows that for each 56.4 COVID patient days exposure the risk of contacting it increases by 10% over the baseline risk.

(Note : These are all made up numbers)

For a real study about tuberculosis transmission: https://www.thelancet.com/article/S1473 ... 2/fulltext
Last edited by ram on Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Ram

ScoobyDoo
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Location: Dallas

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ScoobyDoo » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:58 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:15 pm
mouses wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:34 pm
Is this thread accomplishing anything? Just asking. Endless arguments about currently unknowable things, with giant included posts. I'd like to see some discussion about the structure of society, as what the effect is of giantly more jobless claims than ever, Washington disbursing giant amounts of money (where is that coming from, what effect does it have on inflation or other things of significance). That's something at least some of the people here ought to be able to discuss.

And Dr. Oz as an expert, really, how low have we sunk.
I think the thread has been informative. I had similar questions about where the $2 trilllion is coming from. Planet money explains it here - https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/82178709 ... 00-000-000
+1 —-great show. Still blows my mind we (not we but they) can print money...i.e. say ‘poof’ and money appears....the human ingenuity is amazing!
ScoobyDoo!

folkher0
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:04 pm

knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:28 pm
folkher0 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:10 pm

Further, it is very difficult for me to say with any authority what immunity to this virus means. Are you immune for life (like the measles)? Are you immune to a current strain which will likely be different at some point in the future (like the flu?). Is immunity essentially meaningless and the virus comes around again and again in a different form with varying amounts of virulence (the common cold)?
Is not the "coronavirus" the second most common reason for a "common cold"?

Seems to me we aren't eliminating coronavirus infections forever, we all have almost with certainty been infected with a strain of coronavirus before and we aren't immune to this strain.
This may be true. Just don’t know. I am not a virologist. And only really an armchair epidemiologist. Have a read of Justin Lesslers Washington post article that I posted earlier. He presents what the future with this virus may look like. Not awesome, but certainly better than it is now.

kksmom
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by kksmom » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:28 pm


Prettyfrtnt
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Prettyfrtnt » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:36 pm

Cure with tech we have:
1) Grow weaker strain of the live virus in culture proof by the cdc March 5 announcing this works (in a very huge vat).
2) Study week by week minumum innoculum for 99/100 to get disease. Study seroconversion if possible (assuming test fda approved soon 17 companies working on it UB etc). Otherwise use symptoms to check. Start 1 virus then 10 then 100 etc.
3) Offer volunteer dosage of weaker strain of live virus in lowest quantitaties. Offer to medical people. Make this voluntary. Lines will be around the street so people can get back to work and play
4) Offer special nontransferable hat that says you’ve been cleared and can party in ft lauderdale safely not risking grandma.
Last edited by Prettyfrtnt on Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:48 pm, edited 3 times in total.

EnjoyIt
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Re: BHs I need help. Unusual Corona Virus Situation

Post by EnjoyIt » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:37 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:09 am
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:45 am
HappyJack wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:52 am
Please forgive me if this question is out of line on the BH network. I know we have a lot of very intelligent people here and I am asking for some help.

I just replaced my upstairs heating and AC unit and all the ductwork which was old and nasty. I had a crew of five workers upstairs for two days. My family and I stayed
separated on the first floor.

If I turn on the system it occurred to me that it will blow potential virus contaminants (i.e. sweat, breath)back on all of us. My only thought was to leave it off and let it heat up in the attic maybe kill some contaminants.

Thanks for any thoughts you may have.
There was a study on how long the particle stays active on different materials. If I remember correctly the longest timeframe was on stainless steel lasting 3 days.

If you are really concerned, wait 3-4 days. 21 would work but would likely be overkill.
When dealing with health and safety issues, overkill is a good approach. There is no do-over for any fatal mistake. Especially for a virus that we have very little knowledge of.

KlangFool
There is being overly cautions and then there is neurotic. Everyone gets to choose where on that spectrum they want to be.

Barkingsparrow
Posts: 151
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Barkingsparrow » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:41 pm

Prettyfrtnt wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:36 pm
Cure with tech we have:
1) Grow weaker strain of the live virus in culture proof by the cdc March 5 announcing this works (in a very huge vat).
2) Study week by week minimum innoculum for 99/100 to get disease. Study seroconversion if possible (assuming test I haven’t confirmed). Otherwise use symptoms to check. Start 1 virus then 10 then 100 etc.
3) Offer volunteer dosage of weaker strain of live virus in lowest quantities. Offer to medical people. Make this voluntary. Lines will be around the street so people can get back to work and play
4) Offer special nontransferable hat that says you’ve been cleared and can party in ft lauderdale safely not risking grandma.
A friend her works in a hospital said her hospital was pulling antibodies from the plasma of recovered patients and injecting those antibodies into the more critical patients. Anyone have information about this?

frand
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by frand » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:47 pm

Curious to know how many percent of your family and friends still don't take CoronaVirus seriously, still think it's no worse than a flu?

Cash is King
Posts: 186
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:48 pm

Dr. Birx's comments during today's Coronavirus press briefing were insightful.

She talks about some things discussed in today's thread with regards to UK, Italy etc. It seems the math behind many of the models are flawed.

cjking
Posts: 1897
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by cjking » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:21 pm

cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
Indeed. Original thread straight from the horse's mouth
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 5200124928

Edit: As yet the twitter account is unverified, so it is a possibility that isn't the real Neil Ferguson. That said, the account has existed since 2008 so it definitely isn't a case of somebody registering a fake account recently.

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knpstr
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by knpstr » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:25 pm

folkher0 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:04 pm
This may be true. Just don’t know. I am not a virologist. And only really an armchair epidemiologist. Have a read of Justin Lesslers Washington post article that I posted earlier. He presents what the future with this virus may look like. Not awesome, but certainly better than it is now.
Well it is true coronavirus is the 2nd most common reason for a cold, the first being rhinovirus. So it is highly likely we've all fought the coronavirus (some strain of it) before in our lives.

Also, I got a paywall on that when I clicked it.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

Cash is King
Posts: 186
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm

cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.

KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm
cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.
What did she say? I didn't hear that. What I heard is that we have predictions about what we should see based on new data that we can test.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

cjking
Posts: 1897
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by cjking » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:38 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:47 pm
jharkin wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:28 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:16 pm
And, the UK's approach is "do nothing" and "no testing". I would let you draw your own conclusion.

KlangFool
Where did you get that from? I have colleagues in the UK (Cambridge, England specifically) and I just spoke with one 3 hours ago. He is only allowed to leave his house 1 hour per day under the lockdown law right now. Only permissible reasons to leave are food shopping and light exercise in the local neighborhood.

Hardly "do nothing"
jharkin,

UK's lockdown started 3/23 = this week.

KlangFool
Which is presumably why the peak is predicted to be in three weeks time.

Everyone in the country can only leave their house to go to work, shopping for food, medical appointments. Also exercise, as long as they maintain their distance from everyone else.

They must not go to work if they have a job that can be done from home.

It is illegal for more than 2 people who don't belong to the same household to gather together in public. (And when there are two they have to stay 6 feet apart.)

All except essential shops are closed by law.

Lots of businesses have closed to protect their staff. I have had an email from a clothes retailer who've decided to close their mail-order operation in addition to closing their shops. Various other business are closing completely.

All dentists are at a minimum closed for anything but emergencies. (Some have closed altogether.)

Supermarkets are limiting the number of people who can enter, and those waiting to get in are lined up six feet apart from each other.

All schools and universities have closed, September is probably the earliest they will open. Exams have been cancelled, some people will have to get into university on the basis of the grades their teachers think they would have got. (Schools are running a child-care service for a minority of children so that essential workers, doctors etc, are not lost to looking after children. Apart from that, all children are at home.)

A emergency hospital with 4000 beds and two morgues is being constructed inside a conference centre about ten minute from where I live.

Various businesses are looking at getting into the respirator business, Dyson (vacuum cleaners maker) reckons he's read to make 10,000 of a new design in a matter of weeks.

These are just random things I can think of off the top of my head.

Cash is King
Posts: 186
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:04 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm
cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.
What did she say?
To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.

KyleAAA
Posts: 8083
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:42 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm
cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.
What did she say?
To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.
And Dr Ferguson himself says that they have done no such thing:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 5200124928

She also doesn't say the math was flawed. She said we now have predictions we can test.

Dr Birx starts talking around 1:17
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtTc8zc09iE

SteadyOne
Posts: 64
Joined: Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:26 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by SteadyOne » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:43 pm

surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:33 pm
knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:30 pm
surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:12 pm
njdealguy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:47 pm
USA in first place now, ahead of China & Italy for Coronavirus cases
That was fast.
#1 with a bullet.
but not #1 in deaths
Be patient.
If we can believe numbers from China. Who knows how many people died from this virus there.
“Every de­duc­tion is al­lowed as a mat­ter of leg­isla­tive grace.” US Federal Court

7eight9
Posts: 805
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by 7eight9 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:47 pm

SteadyOne wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:43 pm
surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:33 pm
knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:30 pm
surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:12 pm
njdealguy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:47 pm
USA in first place now, ahead of China & Italy for Coronavirus cases
That was fast.
#1 with a bullet.
but not #1 in deaths
Be patient.
If we can believe numbers from China. Who knows how many people died from this virus there.
I think we have to believe the numbers from China.

If we start doubting them then we go down a slippery slope where everyone's numbers are suspect.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

Cash is King
Posts: 186
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:04 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:42 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm
cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm


Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326

You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.
What did she say?
To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.
And Dr Ferguson himself says that they have done no such thing:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 5200124928

She also doesn't say the math was flawed. She said we now have predictions we can test.

Dr Birx starts talking around 1:17
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtTc8zc09iE
Please start listening at 1:22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc

ImUrHuckleberry
Posts: 374
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
That is only with, "very intensive social distancing," in the authors own words. Otherwise, up to 500,000 deaths.

"Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)."

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402
Last edited by ImUrHuckleberry on Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

folkher0
Posts: 169
Joined: Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:48 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:52 pm

knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:25 pm
folkher0 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:04 pm
This may be true. Just don’t know. I am not a virologist. And only really an armchair epidemiologist. Have a read of Justin Lesslers Washington post article that I posted earlier. He presents what the future with this virus may look like. Not awesome, but certainly better than it is now.
Well it is true coronavirus is the 2nd most common reason for a cold, the first being rhinovirus. So it is highly likely we've all fought the coronavirus (some strain of it) before in our lives.

Also, I got a paywall on that when I clicked it.
Yes I know this. This is a new virus to humans. There were previously I think 6 or 7 known species coronaviruses. 3 or 4 caused the common cold. 1 caused SARS. One caused MERS.

Each time one jumps from animal to human represents a novel virus to which any immunity to the other species does not transfer.

It’s like the difference between a house cat and a saber toothed tiger. Same class. Totally different beast.

KyleAAA
Posts: 8083
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:42 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm


You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.
What did she say?
To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.
And Dr Ferguson himself says that they have done no such thing:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 5200124928

She also doesn't say the math was flawed. She said we now have predictions we can test.

Dr Birx starts talking around 1:17
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtTc8zc09iE
Please start listening at 1:22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
I do not hear where she says the math behind the models was flawed at 1:22. I hear her say they are digging into what 20k in the UK means and how it got there.

And again: https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402

Cash is King
Posts: 186
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:04 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:56 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
That is only with, "very intensive social distancing," in the authors own words. Otherwise, up to 500,000 deaths.

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402
Please listen to Dr. Birx starting at 1:22:19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc

Cash is King
Posts: 186
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:04 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:59 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:42 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm


What did she say?
To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.
And Dr Ferguson himself says that they have done no such thing:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 5200124928

She also doesn't say the math was flawed. She said we now have predictions we can test.

Dr Birx starts talking around 1:17
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtTc8zc09iE
Please start listening at 1:22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
I do not hear where she says the math behind the models was flawed at 1:22. I hear her say they are digging into what 20k in the UK means and how it got there.

And again: https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402
She does not use the word flawed exactly. Semantics. The video is posted and everyone can draw their own conclusion.

7eight9
Posts: 805
Joined: Fri May 17, 2019 7:11 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by 7eight9 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:59 pm

Barkingsparrow wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:41 pm
Prettyfrtnt wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:36 pm
Cure with tech we have:
1) Grow weaker strain of the live virus in culture proof by the cdc March 5 announcing this works (in a very huge vat).
2) Study week by week minimum innoculum for 99/100 to get disease. Study seroconversion if possible (assuming test I haven’t confirmed). Otherwise use symptoms to check. Start 1 virus then 10 then 100 etc.
3) Offer volunteer dosage of weaker strain of live virus in lowest quantities. Offer to medical people. Make this voluntary. Lines will be around the street so people can get back to work and play
4) Offer special nontransferable hat that says you’ve been cleared and can party in ft lauderdale safely not risking grandma.
A friend her works in a hospital said her hospital was pulling antibodies from the plasma of recovered patients and injecting those antibodies into the more critical patients. Anyone have information about this?
FDA says it is expediting the use of a blood plasma treatment as New York begins to roll out new clinical trials

(CNN)The US Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday said it is expediting the use of a blood plasma treatment for patients seriously ill with the coronavirus, making it easier for doctors to try another tool to attack the illness.

The FDA said in a news release that it is "facilitating access" for patients with life threatening infections to blood plasma taken from a person who recovered after once testing positive for the virus.

It's a treatment the state of New York is pursuing in clinical trials, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday.

The process, known as plasma-derived therapy or "convalescent plasma," involves doctors testing the plasma of people who recovered for antibodies to the virus and then injecting that plasma, or a derivative of it, into the sick person.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/health/c ... index.html
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.

KyleAAA
Posts: 8083
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:00 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:59 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:54 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:42 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm


To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.
And Dr Ferguson himself says that they have done no such thing:
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 5200124928

She also doesn't say the math was flawed. She said we now have predictions we can test.

Dr Birx starts talking around 1:17
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtTc8zc09iE
Please start listening at 1:22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
I do not hear where she says the math behind the models was flawed at 1:22. I hear her say they are digging into what 20k in the UK means and how it got there.

And again: https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402
She does not use the word flawed exactly. Semantics. The video is posted and everyone can draw their own conclusion.
Ok.
Last edited by KyleAAA on Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

ImUrHuckleberry
Posts: 374
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:00 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:56 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
That is only with, "very intensive social distancing," in the authors own words. Otherwise, up to 500,000 deaths.

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402
Please listen to Dr. Birx starting at 1:22:19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
Why would I care what she says versus the author of the study? She either misunderstood the newer study, or is misrepresenting the new estimates which are based on a model assuming intensive social distancing, and have nothing to do with "bad math" in the original study.

KyleAAA
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:02 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:00 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:56 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
That is only with, "very intensive social distancing," in the authors own words. Otherwise, up to 500,000 deaths.

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402
Please listen to Dr. Birx starting at 1:22:19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
Why would I care what she says versus the author of the study? She either misunderstood the newer study, or is misrepresenting the new estimates which are based on a model assuming intensive social distancing, and have nothing to do with "bad math" in the original study.
She's doing neither. All she's doing is saying they are trying to dive deep into the UK trajectory and what, if anything, it implies for the US.

SteadyOne
Posts: 64
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by SteadyOne » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:04 pm

7eight9 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:47 pm
SteadyOne wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:43 pm
surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:33 pm
knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:30 pm
surfstar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:12 pm


That was fast.
#1 with a bullet.
but not #1 in deaths
Be patient.
If we can believe numbers from China. Who knows how many people died from this virus there.
I think we have to believe the numbers from China.

If we start doubting them then we go down a slippery slope where everyone's numbers are suspect.
China is not transparent country, ruled by totalitarian communist dictatorship. Their press is controlled by the non-elected government. They lied to the world for months about the human to human transmission. So we should doubt their numbers
“Every de­duc­tion is al­lowed as a mat­ter of leg­isla­tive grace.” US Federal Court

ImUrHuckleberry
Posts: 374
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:04 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:02 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:00 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:56 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
That is only with, "very intensive social distancing," in the authors own words. Otherwise, up to 500,000 deaths.

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402
Please listen to Dr. Birx starting at 1:22:19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
Why would I care what she says versus the author of the study? She either misunderstood the newer study, or is misrepresenting the new estimates which are based on a model assuming intensive social distancing, and have nothing to do with "bad math" in the original study.
She's doing neither. All she's doing is saying they are trying to dive deep into the UK trajectory and what, if anything, it implies for the US.
Well ok, then Cash is King is misrepresenting what she said. Thank you for clearing that up for me.

Cash is King
Posts: 186
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:04 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:00 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:56 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
That is only with, "very intensive social distancing," in the authors own words. Otherwise, up to 500,000 deaths.

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/statu ... 9952230402
Please listen to Dr. Birx starting at 1:22:19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
Why would I care what she says versus the author of the study? She either misunderstood the newer study, or is misrepresenting the new estimates which are based on a model assuming intensive social distancing, and have nothing to do with "bad math" in the original study.
Okay.

ebrasmus21
Posts: 335
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ebrasmus21 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:06 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm
cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:58 am
Another interesting read:https://threader.app/thread/1243133211011690499

The number of deaths are no longer expected to be around 500K in the UK. They are now expecting less than 20,000 which is less than the annual flu deaths.

:shock:
Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.
What did she say?
To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.
Do these estimates really having any practical meaning at all? The experts we are all relying on, in the span of about 1 week, changed their numbers from 500,000 to less than 20,000. How are we supposed to rely on any of this information?

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knpstr
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by knpstr » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:08 pm

folkher0 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:52 pm
Yes I know this. This is a new virus to humans. There were previously I think 6 or 7 known species coronaviruses. 3 or 4 caused the common cold. 1 caused SARS. One caused MERS.

Each time one jumps from animal to human represents a novel virus to which any immunity to the other species does not transfer.

It’s like the difference between a house cat and a saber toothed tiger. Same class. Totally different beast.
Doesn't Covid-19 also cause SARS? That's what wikipedia says anyway.
I believe that's why this is so dangerous, the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome).
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by knpstr » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:09 pm

ebrasmus21 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:06 pm
Do these estimates really having any practical meaning at all? The experts we are all relying on, in the span of about 1 week, changed their numbers from 500,000 to less than 20,000. How are we supposed to rely on any of this information?
They didn't change from 500k to 20k.
500k was the "do nothing" estimate
20k is the "intensive measures" estimate
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by cjking » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:13 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Please start listening at 1:22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
Yes I can see why you have the impression that you do. She created a misleading impression. You can in isolation take something she said as implying that the figures had changed, which is untrue. Initially I thought that she had merely failed to clarify the reason for the difference between 500K and 20K, but then she goes on to suggest that the model must be wrong because there aren't 400,000 deaths in Italy. On the assumption that 400K is Italy's equivalent of the UK 500K figure, this is nonsensical. She seems oblivious to the idea that lock-downs make a difference to the number. Hopefully she misspoke and will issue a clarificaiton, otherwise her credibility is shot.

(I read the Imperial report carefully a week ago, so I know with first-hand certainty that it is a misrepresentation to say there has been the change some are claiming. I don't need to rely on interpretations by intermediaries. I would say she hasn't read the report herself, because there's no way she could have said what she said if she had. Unless she misspoke.)

Cash is King
Posts: 186
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:14 pm

cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:13 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm
Please start listening at 1:22.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3i1qyZOumc
Yes I can see why you have the impression that you do. She created a misleading impression. You can in isolation take something she said as implying that the figures had changed, which is untrue. Initially I thought that she had merely failed to clarify the reason for the difference between 500K and 20K, but then she goes on to suggest that the model must be wrong because there aren't 400,000 deaths in Italy. On the assumption that 400K is Italy's equivalent of the UK 500K figure, this is nonsensical. She seems oblivious to the idea that lock-downs make a difference to the number. Hopefully she misspoke and will issue a clarificaiton, otherwise her credibility is shot.

(I read the Imperial report carefully a week ago, so I know with first-hand certainty that it is a misrepresentation to say there has been the change some are claiming. I don't need to rely on interpretations by intermediaries. I would say she hasn't read the report herself, because there's no way she could have said what she said if she had. Unless she misspoke.)
Okay.

folkher0
Posts: 169
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 pm

knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:08 pm
folkher0 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:52 pm
Yes I know this. This is a new virus to humans. There were previously I think 6 or 7 known species coronaviruses. 3 or 4 caused the common cold. 1 caused SARS. One caused MERS.

Each time one jumps from animal to human represents a novel virus to which any immunity to the other species does not transfer.

It’s like the difference between a house cat and a saber toothed tiger. Same class. Totally different beast.
Doesn't Covid-19 also cause SARS? That's what wikipedia says anyway.
I believe that's why this is so dangerous, the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome).
Yes and no. The virus that caused SARS in the early 2000s was a different coronavirus. In many ways that virus was worse: that epidemic had something like a 30% mortality.

However, with a 30% mortality and few if any asymptomatic carriers it was very easy to identify and isolate the infected.

I believe that virus was eradicated and has not circulated in humans since then.

This virus causes a similar syndrome, but only in a relatively small proportion of infected carriers. While that means the virus is less lethal, it also means that it could spread quickly and broadly without detection. Hence the pandemic.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by knpstr » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:32 pm

folkher0 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 pm
Yes and no. The virus that caused SARS in the early 2000s was a different coronavirus. In many ways that virus was worse: that epidemic had something like a 30% mortality.

However, with a 30% mortality and few if any asymptomatic carriers it was very easy to identify and isolate the infected.

I believe that virus was eradicated and has not circulated in humans since then.

This virus causes a similar syndrome, but only in a relatively small proportion of infected carriers. While that means the virus is less lethal, it also means that it could spread quickly and broadly without detection. Hence the pandemic.
Oh sorry I did not mean to say that this is the exact same virus, but both cause SARS as it seems that this current virus is called SARS-CoV-2 and the first one was SARS-CoV

And it looks like that one was 9% mortality rate not 30%
Last edited by knpstr on Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:34 pm

I removed an off-topic post and reply. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
This is a moderated forum. We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones. Discussions are about issues, not people. If you disagree with an idea, go ahead and marshal all your forces against it. But do not confuse ideas with the person posting them. At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable. If you feel that someone has attacked you or otherwise violated the policies of this forum, do not respond in kind. Instead, please click the report button on the offending post. This is the quickest method to notify the site moderators.
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folkher0
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by folkher0 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:49 pm

knpstr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:32 pm
folkher0 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 pm
Yes and no. The virus that caused SARS in the early 2000s was a different coronavirus. In many ways that virus was worse: that epidemic had something like a 30% mortality.

However, with a 30% mortality and few if any asymptomatic carriers it was very easy to identify and isolate the infected.

I believe that virus was eradicated and has not circulated in humans since then.

This virus causes a similar syndrome, but only in a relatively small proportion of infected carriers. While that means the virus is less lethal, it also means that it could spread quickly and broadly without detection. Hence the pandemic.
Oh sorry I did not mean to say that this is the exact same virus, but both cause SARS as it seems that this current virus is called SARS-CoV-2 and the first one was SARS-CoV

And it looks like that one was 9% mortality rate not 30%
Very likely sorry I’m quoting most of this stuff from memory. Should’ve looked it up before posting.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by JAZZISCOOL » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:56 pm

Peggy Noonan, a Pulitzer-prize winning writer for the WSJ (who also wrote speeches for Pres. Reagan), has been very sick and was tested for COVID-19 on March 17 in NYC. As of today, still no results (almost a week later).

She wrote an opinion piece on her experience today:

My Corona (or Is It Schmutz?)

I went in for a Covid-19 test March 17. I’m feeling much better but still awaiting my results.

By Peggy Noonan
March 26, 2020 7:01 pm ET


https://www.wsj.com/articles/my-corona- ... nts_sector

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tadamsmar
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by tadamsmar » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:15 pm

ebrasmus21 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:06 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm
cjking wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:13 pm


Fortunately for my blood pressure, other posters have alreay pointed out what was wrong in that link. Unfortunately when I google, I see even some newspapers repeating what that guy said.

Here's the first link I found where Neil Ferguson makes clear there has not been a change.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/neil-f ... d-20200326

You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.
What did she say?
To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.
Do these estimates really having any practical meaning at all? The experts we are all relying on, in the span of about 1 week, changed their numbers from 500,000 to less than 20,000. How are we supposed to rely on any of this information?
The 20,000 comes from this Oxford study:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavir ... tudy-says/

The idea is that there are many more UK infections than we think. This means that the proportion of fatalities is lower than we think, and that UK is close to herd immunity.

It should be easy to determine if about half the Brits have antibodies. You just have to sample 100 Brits to get an pretty good estimate. An antibody test was developed and used a month ago in Singapore and put on the market. But Brix seemed to be waiting for an easier test or something.

ThankYouJack
Posts: 3271
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:27 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:36 pm

Here's an interview with Bill Gates:

https://youtu.be/Xe8fIjxicoo

Definitely thinks there needs to be a strong push for testing.

Jotted a couple notes if you don't want to listen to the full thing:
2:30 (did people listen to your pandemic warning 5 years ago?) Basically no.

7:12 (when was it clear this could be a deadly pandemic) In January, human to human transmission - made his alarm bells ring. On Jan. 23 China did its version of the shutdown. Let's get our act together with testing, therapeutics and vaccines. We've got to get organized.

8:45 (what was going on behind the scenes during that period) Well you'd like to have government money show up for the key activities. We put up $100M, created the therapeutic accelerator. I think the most important thing today is we're still not creating the testing capacity and giving it to the people who are most in need. The testing has got to be organized and is super super urgent. The second thing is the isolation. The sooner you do it in a tough way, the sooner you can undo it.

11:00 (what happened with testing) We certainly didn't take advantage of the month of February. Sent info to the FDA that the accuracy of an individual test selfing is about the same as a HCP doing it.

13:11 (how well testing work) It's pretty chaotic today because the government hasn't stepped in to make sure the testing capacity both increased and is used in the right cases. There will be a website where you can get kits. The testing is everything because that's where you know if you need to do more shutdown or you're getting to the point where you can relieve it.

14:30 (testing absolutely essential) The 2 that go together are testing and isolation piece. Testing is what indicates to you, do you need to into isolation and not spread. So that is paired with the isolation piece. If you don't do these things that where you get to the huge overload of the medical system.

17:00 (thoughts on isolation strategy and crashing the economy) Very tough to say to people keep going to restaurants, go buy houses, ignore that pile of bodies in the corner because we want you to keep spending because maybe some politician cares that GDP growth is what really counts...I don't know of any rich countries that have chosen to use that approach. Herd immunity is meaningless until you infect over half the population. It's very irresponsible for someone to suggest we could have the best of both worlds.

18:00 S. Korea did not have to do the extreme shutdown because they did such a good job on testing. That's why it's so maddening to me that the government is not allocating the testing to where it's needed. And maybe that will have to happen at the state level because that's not happening on the federal level.

21:30 We did not act fast enough to avoid an ability to not have a shutdown.

22:30 Results of imperial are not matching what we're seeing in China. Seasonality may help us in the northern hemisphere. We don't know how seasonal this one is. And it's your testing that is always telling you do I have to shut down more or open up. I'm on the more optimistic side that it will be possible to do what China is doing.


26:00 (if you were President for a month, what would you do?) Prepare ourselves that we have no choice but to maintain this isolation, probably for about 6 weeks and do it very well. We need a clear message that this is not going to be easy. It is very tragic that the economy took a hit but that is easier to bring back to life.
Last edited by ThankYouJack on Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.

KyleAAA
Posts: 8083
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KyleAAA » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:46 pm

tadamsmar wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:15 pm
ebrasmus21 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:06 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:41 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:30 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:28 pm


You can draw your own conclusion. I tend to believe what Dr. Birx said today about the math behind the modeling.
What did she say?
To paraphrase, Dr. Birx said that the UK had reduced their prediction of deaths from 500,000 to under 20,000. She said the math behind the originally models were flawed to have such a drastic change. Again, I'm paraphrasing. I think it's worth listening to your comments today.
Do these estimates really having any practical meaning at all? The experts we are all relying on, in the span of about 1 week, changed their numbers from 500,000 to less than 20,000. How are we supposed to rely on any of this information?
The 20,000 comes from this Oxford study:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavir ... tudy-says/

The idea is that there are many more UK infections than we think. This means that the proportion of fatalities is lower than we think, and that UK is close to herd immunity.

It should be easy to determine if about half the Brits have antibodies. You just have to sample 100 Brits to get an pretty good estimate. An antibody test was developed and used a month ago in Singapore and put on the market. But Brix seemed to be waiting for an easier test or something.
Yes, and Dr Ferguson commented directly on the Oxford study, saying that scenario implies there's an army of undocumented asymptomatic cases and that the data doesn't support that. But as you say, simple enough to test. We will hopefully soon know which view is more accurate. When a similar test was conducted in China, no such cases were found.

But what's more, the study didn't actually conclude that. What it did was outline a broad range of scenarios consistent with the deaths we see in Italy on the UK. The "half the population is already infected" is merely the most extreme of those. The study itself doesn't appear to favor one interpretation over another. But this is good because now we have a testable hypothesis and we can start ruling out scenarios one by one.

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