Unemployment numbers

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
Topic Author
theorist
Posts: 328
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:39 am

Unemployment numbers

Post by theorist » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:40 am

Unemployment claims at 3.3 million. Does this get us another 20% down?

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-week ... ion-2020-3

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 629
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:43 am

Image

Not really.

Topic Author
theorist
Posts: 328
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:39 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by theorist » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:44 am

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:43 am
Image

Not really.
“Already priced in”?

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 629
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:44 am

It seems like the market expected 4 million.

ciscovp
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Apr 30, 2008 10:02 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by ciscovp » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:46 am

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:43 am
Image

Not really.
Futures are not a real judge of this. We should check how the market opens.

User avatar
Rick Ferri
Posts: 9054
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:40 am
Location: Georgetown, TX. Twitter: @Rick_Ferri
Contact:

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Rick Ferri » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:47 am

theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:40 am
Unemployment claims at 3.3 million. Does this get us another 20% down?

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-week ... ion-2020-3
No. The estimate was well within the anticipated 2-4 mm range. Next week will be another large number. That being said, the mass media will focus be all over this language, "This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series." That will scare a lot of people.

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

alex_686
Posts: 5626
Joined: Mon Feb 09, 2015 2:39 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by alex_686 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:48 am

theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:44 am
“Already priced in”?
Sort of. Everybody knew that unemployment numbers were going to spike with shuttered business. I know a few people who were long term professional salaried employees earning 100k who were sacked and told to get unemployment. They may be rehired in maybe 2, maybe 4 months.

User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 5139
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by JoeRetire » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:03 am

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:44 am
It seems like the market expected 4 million.
"Consensus estimates from economists surveyed by Dow Jones showed an expectation for 1.5 million new claims, though individual forecasts on Wall Street had been anticipating a much higher number."
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.

jebmke
Posts: 10249
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:44 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by jebmke » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:05 am

Did Ohio report? Last time I checked they were planning to suppress the data.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 5139
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by JoeRetire » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:06 am

"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,283,000, an increase of
3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the
history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 695,000 in October of 1982. "

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.

nordsteve
Posts: 754
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 9:23 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by nordsteve » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:10 am

jebmke wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:05 am
Did Ohio report? Last time I checked they were planning to suppress the data.
First hit when I search under News for "Ohio unemployment" is https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2 ... utType=amp

aristotelian
Posts: 6977
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by aristotelian » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:10 am

Futures are actually higher (less negative) than overnight so looks like this is about what the market expected. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

User avatar
AnalogKid22
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:12 am

Assuming we don't become one of the "numbers" in the coming months, perhaps we can capitalize.

User avatar
Ramjet
Posts: 278
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:45 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Ramjet » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:16 am

Forgive my ignorance but the 3.3M national unemployment number is for what time period

User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 5139
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by JoeRetire » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:17 am

Ramjet wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:16 am
Forgive my ignorance but the 3.3M national unemployment number is for what time period
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

"In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,283,000, an increase of
3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the
history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 695,000 in October of 1982."
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.

njdealguy
Posts: 122
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:15 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by njdealguy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 am

This is nuts, record unemployment claims and somehow the futures is still pointing towards a positive day, presumably because it isn't as bad as the worst estimate of 4MM claims that Citi had issued! Am really learning this month how markets are priced based on future predictions and therefore trying to time it really doesnt work!

Seasonal
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:22 am

The number is likely understated, based on reports that state UI offices are overwhelmed and don't have enough staff to process claims and reports that many people don't realize they are entitled to UI even though they are.

Futures are up a bit at the moment, likely because the market expected worse.

Perpetual
Posts: 123
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 3:56 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Perpetual » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:24 am

Something does not look right with these numbers.

Yesterday, California's governor said they have had more than 1 million claims since March 13th.

The DOL report shows a total of 186k.

In contrast, Pennsylvania reports... 379k.

New York, where half of all known COVID cases are located, reports... 80k.

I have never been as distrustful of an official US statistic as today.

Seasonal
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:26 am

njdealguy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 am
This is nuts, record unemployment claims and somehow the futures is still pointing towards a positive day, presumably because it isn't as bad as the worst estimate of 4MM claims that Citi had issued! Am really learning this month how markets are priced based on future predictions and therefore trying to time it really doesnt work!
A valuable lesson. You really need to compare your predictions to the market's predictions and, however difficult it may be to predict the future accurately, knowing what the market is predicting and how it will react is likely harder.

Topic Author
theorist
Posts: 328
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:39 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by theorist » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:29 am

Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:26 am
njdealguy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 am
This is nuts, record unemployment claims and somehow the futures is still pointing towards a positive day, presumably because it isn't as bad as the worst estimate of 4MM claims that Citi had issued! Am really learning this month how markets are priced based on future predictions and therefore trying to time it really doesnt work!
A valuable lesson. You really need to compare your predictions to the market's predictions and, however difficult it may be to predict the future accurately, knowing what the market is predicting and how it will react is likely harder.
This reminds me of the Keynes analogy, where trying to understand the stock markets way of pricing isn’t like being judge in a beauty contest. It is like being asked to judge who the other judges will find most beautiful. But they know this too, so you’re really being asked to judge who the other judges think the other judges will find most beautiful. And so forth...
Last edited by theorist on Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

protagonist
Posts: 6230
Joined: Sun Dec 26, 2010 12:47 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by protagonist » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:30 am

I'm no expert when it comes to stock market psychology. I doubt that anybody is. At any time. If somebody was, they would probably be a trillionaire.

But especially now, with the myriad of new data arriving by the minute, and the huge variety of spin and how it is interpreted (just take any coronavirus thread on this forum for an example of that), how can anybody have a clue as to what is "priced in" and what is not?

I would humbly like to suggest that this is all speculation and guesswork. You can believe whomever and whatever you wish to believe, and whatever confirms your personal bias.

Seasonal
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:32 am

Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:24 am
Something does not look right with these numbers.

Yesterday, California's governor said they have had more than 1 million claims since March 13th.

The DOL report shows a total of 186k.

In contrast, Pennsylvania reports... 379k.

New York, where half of all known COVID cases are located, reports... 80k.

I have never been as distrustful of an official US statistic as today.
Are those numbers from the same time frame as the US numbers?

Didn't the administration say "States should not provide numeric values to the public”?

Seasonal
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:32 am

protagonist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:30 am
I'm no expert when it comes to stock market psychology. I doubt that anybody is. At any time. If somebody was, they would probably be a trillionaire.

But especially now, with the myriad of new data arriving by the minute, and the huge variety of spin and how it is interpreted (just take any coronavirus thread on this forum for an example of that), how can anybody have a clue as to what is "priced in" and what is not?

I would humbly like to suggest that this is all speculation and guesswork. You can believe whomever and whatever you wish to believe, and whatever confirms your personal bias.
It's really difficult, which is why it's really difficult to beat the market, market time, etc.

rascott
Posts: 1719
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by rascott » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:33 am

njdealguy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 am
This is nuts, record unemployment claims and somehow the futures is still pointing towards a positive day, presumably because it isn't as bad as the worst estimate of 4MM claims that Citi had issued! Am really learning this month how markets are priced based on future predictions and therefore trying to time it really doesnt work!
Actually not nuts at all.... everyone knew at least a week ago that unemployment was going to hit extreme levels immediately. I did back of envelope math and came up with an easy 10m unemployed over the next 2 weeks.... just from hospitality industry.

Then you have the govt coming in with a bazooka of all emergency financial support ($50k salary for unemployed) ... cases seeming to plateau in Italy, e.t.c..... market only going to care about the unknowns becoming knowns.... not a report on what's already known

Perpetual
Posts: 123
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 3:56 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Perpetual » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:36 am

Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:32 am
Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:24 am
Something does not look right with these numbers.

Yesterday, California's governor said they have had more than 1 million claims since March 13th.

The DOL report shows a total of 186k.

In contrast, Pennsylvania reports... 379k.

New York, where half of all known COVID cases are located, reports... 80k.

I have never been as distrustful of an official US statistic as today.
Are those numbers from the same time frame as the US numbers?

Didn't the administration say "States should not provide numeric values to the public”?
The 1 million number is for March 13th through the 25th, whereas the US jobs numbers are for the week that ended on the 21st. So there's about a 4 day gap, which definitely doesn't explain the massive discrepancy.

Perpetual
Posts: 123
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 3:56 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Perpetual » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:38 am

Interesting thread: https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status ... 6784324608

Particularly:
Third, the sudden flood of claims has overwhelmed state UI systems. There are tons of reports of jammed phone lines, overloaded servers and claimants who aren't able to file (I've spoken to several myself). Others may have heard those stories and decided not to bother trying.

rascott
Posts: 1719
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by rascott » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:41 am

Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:36 am
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:32 am
Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:24 am
Something does not look right with these numbers.

Yesterday, California's governor said they have had more than 1 million claims since March 13th.

The DOL report shows a total of 186k.

In contrast, Pennsylvania reports... 379k.

New York, where half of all known COVID cases are located, reports... 80k.

I have never been as distrustful of an official US statistic as today.
Are those numbers from the same time frame as the US numbers?

Didn't the administration say "States should not provide numeric values to the public”?
The 1 million number is for March 13th through the 25th, whereas the US jobs numbers are for the week that ended on the 21st. So there's about a 4 day gap, which definitely doesn't explain the massive discrepancy.

I expect there was MASSIVE upturn in filings in the last 4 days.

I don't think it really matters....as far as weekly numbers right now. They are going to astronomical and likely full of errors.

User avatar
AnalogKid22
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:02 am

Several businesses around me are closed/closing and I continue to see very few cars in the streets or people in the businesses (grocery stores) that are open. I find it very hard to believe our economy is on the upswing with so much uncertainty out there.

User avatar
simplesimon
Posts: 3604
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2008 8:53 pm
Location: Boston, MA

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by simplesimon » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:11 am

Claims are going to skyrocket if the proposed legislation passes allowing self-employed workers to file.

guyinlaw
Posts: 504
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am

The forecasts say the unemployment rate to increase to between 7-12%. But if self employed folks are added to this the number can grow up higher..

Typically unemployment benefits last between 12 weeks to 26 weeks. Senate bill is proposing to add $600 for 4 months..

Question is how this impacts consumer confidence, revenue of companies and Stock markets?

Consumer confidence is already plummeting..
The economist added: "The unemployment rate should rise quickly over the next few months, but the March increase will understate the problem (maybe 3.8-4.2 percent in March). I'd expect to see an unemployment rate of about 7-8 percent in the next few months (we got near 10 percent during the previous downturn)."

"We look for nonfarm payrolls to decline by roughly 8-million over the next two quarters, sparking the unemployment rate to shoot up to nearly 9 percent by Q3," Wells Fargo senior economist Sam Bullard also said.

Joel Naroff of Naroff Economics, LLC predicted that there could be "something in the range of 5-8 million jobs lost and the unemployment rate rising to anywhere from 8.5 percent to 12.0 percent" if COVID-19 related shutdowns last until June.

"April could show a decline in payrolls above 1 million and a rise in the unemployment rate by one percentage point," he added. "Similar numbers could be sustained for three months."

While the three most followed U.S. indices plunged as the COVID-19 pandemic continued its spread last week, the former Director of the Federal Reserve's Division of Research and Statistics David Wilcox said monthly job reports were "likely to be the worst ever on record."

He also told Newsweek that May's job report covering April's pay period would have particularly important data on layoffs resulting from the coronavirus crash.

The U.S. unemployment rate peaked at 24.9 percent in 1933 amid the Great Depression, and hit a post-Depression record of 10.8 percent in December 1982.

During the Financial Crash of 2007 to 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate hit a 10 percent peak in October of 2009 and has steadily declined since.

According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the unemployment rate was steady at 3.5 percent as of the end of February. The total civilian labor force stood at roughly 164,546,000 people.

In order to surpass the Great Depression's peak rate of unemployment, an unprecedented 41,136,500 Americans would have to be put out of work by the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://www.newsweek.com/jobless-claims ... is-1494400

Seasonal
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am
The forecasts say the unemployment rate to increase to between 7-12%. But if self employed folks are added to this the number can grow up higher..

Typically unemployment benefits last between 12 weeks to 26 weeks. Senate bill is proposing to add $600 for 4 months..

Question is how this impacts consumer confidence, revenue of companies and Stock markets?

Consumer confidence is already plummeting..
More money in people's pockets from unemployment benefits (and the cash per person) should help consumer confidence, revenue of companies (that's where much of the more money will go) and stock markets (because more to public companies), in each case compared to the alternative. Also, the money should allow more people to isolate, reducing the spread on the virus and leading to a better economy next year, if not sooner, which should help confidence, companies and the market.

Perpetual
Posts: 123
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2010 3:56 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Perpetual » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am
The forecasts say the unemployment rate to increase to between 7-12%. But if self employed folks are added to this the number can grow up higher..

Typically unemployment benefits last between 12 weeks to 26 weeks. Senate bill is proposing to add $600 for 4 months..

Question is how this impacts consumer confidence, revenue of companies and Stock markets?

Consumer confidence is already plummeting..
More money in people's pockets from unemployment benefits (and the cash per person) should help consumer confidence, revenue of companies (that's where much of the more money will go) and stock markets (because more to public companies), in each case compared to the alternative. Also, the money should allow more people to isolate, reducing the spread on the virus and leading to a better economy next year, if not sooner, which should help confidence, companies and the market.
$1,200 is not that much. For most people, it is one month's rent/mortgate, plus utilities. Keep in mind that a significant portion of people in this country live paycheck-to-paycheck and cannot scrounge together $400 for an emergency.

Seasonal
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:16 pm

Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am
The forecasts say the unemployment rate to increase to between 7-12%. But if self employed folks are added to this the number can grow up higher..

Typically unemployment benefits last between 12 weeks to 26 weeks. Senate bill is proposing to add $600 for 4 months..

Question is how this impacts consumer confidence, revenue of companies and Stock markets?

Consumer confidence is already plummeting..
More money in people's pockets from unemployment benefits (and the cash per person) should help consumer confidence, revenue of companies (that's where much of the more money will go) and stock markets (because more to public companies), in each case compared to the alternative. Also, the money should allow more people to isolate, reducing the spread on the virus and leading to a better economy next year, if not sooner, which should help confidence, companies and the market.
$1,200 is not that much. For most people, it is one month's rent/mortgate, plus utilities. Keep in mind that a significant portion of people in this country live paycheck-to-paycheck and cannot scrounge together $400 for an emergency.
I agree completely, but it's better than nothing. People who are employed should still get their paychecks and people who meet the definition of unemployed get enhanced benefits (regular unemployment plus an extra $600), which are designed to approximate their paychecks (obviously a very rough approximation). People who have their hours cut or don't meet the technical definition of unemployed can have serious issues.

What will happen when this money runs out is a good question.

User avatar
AnalogKid22
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:21 pm

Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am
The forecasts say the unemployment rate to increase to between 7-12%. But if self employed folks are added to this the number can grow up higher..

Typically unemployment benefits last between 12 weeks to 26 weeks. Senate bill is proposing to add $600 for 4 months..

Question is how this impacts consumer confidence, revenue of companies and Stock markets?

Consumer confidence is already plummeting..
More money in people's pockets from unemployment benefits (and the cash per person) should help consumer confidence, revenue of companies (that's where much of the more money will go) and stock markets (because more to public companies), in each case compared to the alternative. Also, the money should allow more people to isolate, reducing the spread on the virus and leading to a better economy next year, if not sooner, which should help confidence, companies and the market.
$1,200 is not that much. For most people, it is one month's rent/mortgate, plus utilities. Keep in mind that a significant portion of people in this country live paycheck-to-paycheck and cannot scrounge together $400 for an emergency.
Wouldn't surprise me if people expecting a check have already put a new TV or computer on their credit cards, for example. We can't assume the recipients will use the money responsibly.

Seasonal
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:15 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:21 pm
Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am
The forecasts say the unemployment rate to increase to between 7-12%. But if self employed folks are added to this the number can grow up higher..

Typically unemployment benefits last between 12 weeks to 26 weeks. Senate bill is proposing to add $600 for 4 months..

Question is how this impacts consumer confidence, revenue of companies and Stock markets?

Consumer confidence is already plummeting..
More money in people's pockets from unemployment benefits (and the cash per person) should help consumer confidence, revenue of companies (that's where much of the more money will go) and stock markets (because more to public companies), in each case compared to the alternative. Also, the money should allow more people to isolate, reducing the spread on the virus and leading to a better economy next year, if not sooner, which should help confidence, companies and the market.
$1,200 is not that much. For most people, it is one month's rent/mortgate, plus utilities. Keep in mind that a significant portion of people in this country live paycheck-to-paycheck and cannot scrounge together $400 for an emergency.
Wouldn't surprise me if people expecting a check have already put a new TV or computer on their credit cards, for example. We can't assume the recipients will use the money responsibly.
Why are those things irresponsible? A computer is almost a necessity for working from home. Anecdotally sales have been soaring for that reason. Consider staying home for extended periods with a young child without a TV.

A theme of market capitalism is people making choices for themselves, unless those choices hurt others.

Any such purchase would seem good for the economy.

User avatar
AnalogKid22
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:37 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:15 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:21 pm
Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am
The forecasts say the unemployment rate to increase to between 7-12%. But if self employed folks are added to this the number can grow up higher..

Typically unemployment benefits last between 12 weeks to 26 weeks. Senate bill is proposing to add $600 for 4 months..

Question is how this impacts consumer confidence, revenue of companies and Stock markets?

Consumer confidence is already plummeting..
More money in people's pockets from unemployment benefits (and the cash per person) should help consumer confidence, revenue of companies (that's where much of the more money will go) and stock markets (because more to public companies), in each case compared to the alternative. Also, the money should allow more people to isolate, reducing the spread on the virus and leading to a better economy next year, if not sooner, which should help confidence, companies and the market.
$1,200 is not that much. For most people, it is one month's rent/mortgate, plus utilities. Keep in mind that a significant portion of people in this country live paycheck-to-paycheck and cannot scrounge together $400 for an emergency.
Wouldn't surprise me if people expecting a check have already put a new TV or computer on their credit cards, for example. We can't assume the recipients will use the money responsibly.
Why are those things irresponsible? A computer is almost a necessity for working from home. Anecdotally sales have been soaring for that reason. Consider staying home for extended periods with a young child without a TV.

A theme of market capitalism is people making choices for themselves, unless those choices hurt others.

Any such purchase would seem good for the economy.
This is a rescue bill from our tax money to help people survive. Food, rent, medicine, utilities, etc. are essentials for survival.

Seasonal
Posts: 1357
Joined: Sun May 21, 2017 1:49 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:17 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:37 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:15 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:21 pm
Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm

More money in people's pockets from unemployment benefits (and the cash per person) should help consumer confidence, revenue of companies (that's where much of the more money will go) and stock markets (because more to public companies), in each case compared to the alternative. Also, the money should allow more people to isolate, reducing the spread on the virus and leading to a better economy next year, if not sooner, which should help confidence, companies and the market.
$1,200 is not that much. For most people, it is one month's rent/mortgate, plus utilities. Keep in mind that a significant portion of people in this country live paycheck-to-paycheck and cannot scrounge together $400 for an emergency.
Wouldn't surprise me if people expecting a check have already put a new TV or computer on their credit cards, for example. We can't assume the recipients will use the money responsibly.
Why are those things irresponsible? A computer is almost a necessity for working from home. Anecdotally sales have been soaring for that reason. Consider staying home for extended periods with a young child without a TV.

A theme of market capitalism is people making choices for themselves, unless those choices hurt others.

Any such purchase would seem good for the economy.
This is a rescue bill from our tax money to help people survive. Food, rent, medicine, utilities, etc. are essentials for survival.
Some guess on your part of what people will do with the money is hardly statistical data. We don't know what most people will do.

It's being paid for by borrowings and those borrowings could well be rolled over to new borrowings. It's certainly not coming out of today's taxes and may never be.

Remind me of which section of the law limits how the this money can be used.

TropikThunder
Posts: 2165
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by TropikThunder » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:37 pm

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:37 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:15 pm
Why are those things irresponsible? A computer is almost a necessity for working from home. Anecdotally sales have been soaring for that reason. Consider staying home for extended periods with a young child without a TV.

A theme of market capitalism is people making choices for themselves, unless those choices hurt others.

Any such purchase would seem good for the economy.
This is a rescue bill from our tax money to help people survive. Food, rent, medicine, utilities, etc. are essentials for survival.
How about if I use the stimulus check for rent, and use my rent money for a new TV. Would that be ok?

User avatar
AnalogKid22
Posts: 332
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:41 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:17 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:37 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:15 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:21 pm
Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm


$1,200 is not that much. For most people, it is one month's rent/mortgate, plus utilities. Keep in mind that a significant portion of people in this country live paycheck-to-paycheck and cannot scrounge together $400 for an emergency.
Wouldn't surprise me if people expecting a check have already put a new TV or computer on their credit cards, for example. We can't assume the recipients will use the money responsibly.
Why are those things irresponsible? A computer is almost a necessity for working from home. Anecdotally sales have been soaring for that reason. Consider staying home for extended periods with a young child without a TV.

A theme of market capitalism is people making choices for themselves, unless those choices hurt others.

Any such purchase would seem good for the economy.
This is a rescue bill from our tax money to help people survive. Food, rent, medicine, utilities, etc. are essentials for survival.
Some guess on your part of what people will do with the money is hardly statistical data. We don't know what most people will do.

It's being paid for by borrowings and those borrowings could well be rolled over to new borrowings. It's certainly not coming out of today's taxes and may never be.

Remind me of which section of the law limits how the this money can be used.
People can spend the money however they choose. The point of this bill is provide money to lower- and middle-income people who can't work, either due to recent illness or job loss, and to business to keep them afloat in an attempt to stave off a recession. Increasing our staggering deficit so that citizens can buy shiny, new toys, whether they "need" them or not, won't aid in their survival. Or, would you prefer that we continue to borrow and send them money as they need it? After all, it's our children's children's children that will have to pay all this back, right?

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 18731
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by abuss368 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:57 pm

theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:40 am
Unemployment claims at 3.3 million. Does this get us another 20% down?

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-week ... ion-2020-3
I think it was largely priced in. I am concerned about where do we go from here.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 7560
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Unemployment numbers

Post by whodidntante » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:06 pm

Rick Ferri wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:47 am
theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:40 am
Unemployment claims at 3.3 million. Does this get us another 20% down?

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-week ... ion-2020-3
No. The estimate was well within the anticipated 2-4 mm range. Next week will be another large number. That being said, the mass media will focus be all over this language, "This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series." That will scare a lot of people.

Rick Ferri
Yeah, it will scare people. Especially the 3.3 million who filed for benefits.

Post Reply