U.S. stocks in free fall

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:44 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:27 am
So, we’re to believe that a 24% Market haircut from already-lofty valuations had priced in a record 3.3M in new unemployment claims?
Apparently the market believes the current situation to be only slightly worse than in late 2018, when the drawdown of TSM was 20%.

It makes zero sense to me.
Makes complete sense to me. Victory against COVID is inevitable, governments and central banks are responding with extremely aggressive fiscal manoeuvres and will likely continue to do so, economy may actually rebound too excessively.
Was there ever much doubt of that (i.e. the underlined)?

I don't think many here at least ever thought that this would spell the end of humanity, capitalism, the U.S., etc.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

madbrain
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by madbrain » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:10 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:44 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:27 am
So, we’re to believe that a 24% Market haircut from already-lofty valuations had priced in a record 3.3M in new unemployment claims?
Apparently the market believes the current situation to be only slightly worse than in late 2018, when the drawdown of TSM was 20%.

It makes zero sense to me.
Makes complete sense to me. Victory against COVID is inevitable, governments and central banks are responding with extremely aggressive fiscal manoeuvres and will likely continue to do so, economy may actually rebound too excessively.
Contrarian argument : one must deal with the virus first. And we are not doing that very well in the US right now. Doing economic stimulus is putting the cart before the horse.
https://www.businessinsider.com/austan- ... ork-2020-3

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:11 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:44 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:27 am
So, we’re to believe that a 24% Market haircut from already-lofty valuations had priced in a record 3.3M in new unemployment claims?
Apparently the market believes the current situation to be only slightly worse than in late 2018, when the drawdown of TSM was 20%.

It makes zero sense to me.
Makes complete sense to me. Victory against COVID is inevitable, governments and central banks are responding with extremely aggressive fiscal manoeuvres and will likely continue to do so, economy may actually rebound too excessively.
Was there ever much doubt of that (i.e. the underlined)?

I don't think many here at least ever thought that this would spell the end of humanity, capitalism, the U.S., etc.
Maybe just my imagination, but I saw some posters here think that this is it. This is the end.

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:16 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:44 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:27 am
So, we’re to believe that a 24% Market haircut from already-lofty valuations had priced in a record 3.3M in new unemployment claims?
Apparently the market believes the current situation to be only slightly worse than in late 2018, when the drawdown of TSM was 20%.

It makes zero sense to me.
Makes complete sense to me. Victory against COVID is inevitable, governments and central banks are responding with extremely aggressive fiscal manoeuvres and will likely continue to do so, economy may actually rebound too excessively.
Was there ever much doubt of that (i.e. the underlined)?

I don't think many here at least ever thought that this would spell the end of humanity, capitalism, the U.S., etc.
Then it shouldn’t have a huge impact on the future profits of companies. Bull market here we come

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm

madbrain wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:10 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:44 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:27 am
So, we’re to believe that a 24% Market haircut from already-lofty valuations had priced in a record 3.3M in new unemployment claims?
Apparently the market believes the current situation to be only slightly worse than in late 2018, when the drawdown of TSM was 20%.

It makes zero sense to me.
Makes complete sense to me. Victory against COVID is inevitable, governments and central banks are responding with extremely aggressive fiscal manoeuvres and will likely continue to do so, economy may actually rebound too excessively.
Contrarian argument : one must deal with the virus first. And we are not doing that very well in the US right now. Doing economic stimulus is putting the cart before the horse.
https://www.businessinsider.com/austan- ... ork-2020-3
No matter what strategy we use the virus will be dealt with. Some strategies will result in more deaths (particularly in the elderly) than others. The strategies that result in most deaths are also likely to be best for economy, hence why we see governments trying to avoid a long period of lockdown.

In the hospital where I work, the tidal wave of COVID has now started so I’ve accepted I’m going to have a torrid time for a few months, but I’m not even slightly concerned about the stock market (even if it plummets)

jibantik
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jibantik » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm

I am not a market timer so I don't claim to know anything, but I would have thought stocks would drop more.

On the other hand, the sheer number of "bogleheads" who bailed on the market and are now saying that we cannot have hit the bottom yet makes me think that we have, in fact, hit the bottom. :mrgreen:

madbrain
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by madbrain » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:22 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:16 pm
Then it shouldn’t have a huge impact on the future profits of companies. Bull market here we come
It all it depends how long it takes to actually curb COVID-19, and what happens during that time. If it lasts a long time, a lot of businesses and individuals will go bankrupt. Things will be very different if infections are curbed in 3 months or 2 years. And the worst case scenario is much longer than that.

nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:22 pm

jibantik wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm
I am not a market timer so I don't claim to know anything, but I would have thought stocks would drop more.

On the other hand, the sheer number of "bogleheads" who bailed on the market and are now saying that we cannot have hit the bottom yet makes me think that we have, in fact, hit the bottom. :mrgreen:
Who bailed? I think maybe one?

Seasonal
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Seasonal » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:23 pm

madbrain wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:10 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:44 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:27 am
So, we’re to believe that a 24% Market haircut from already-lofty valuations had priced in a record 3.3M in new unemployment claims?
Apparently the market believes the current situation to be only slightly worse than in late 2018, when the drawdown of TSM was 20%.

It makes zero sense to me.
Makes complete sense to me. Victory against COVID is inevitable, governments and central banks are responding with extremely aggressive fiscal manoeuvres and will likely continue to do so, economy may actually rebound too excessively.
Contrarian argument : one must deal with the virus first. And we are not doing that very well in the US right now. Doing economic stimulus is putting the cart before the horse.
https://www.businessinsider.com/austan- ... ork-2020-3
Many have been saying the key is to stop the spread of the virus, which should be our highest priority. In the meanwhile, follow the other prescriptions of that article - keep people and businesses from collapsing. That would be good for people and the market. Also, see https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... and-health

Perpetual
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Perpetual » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm
No matter what strategy we use the virus will be dealt with. Some strategies will result in more deaths (particularly in the elderly) than others. The strategies that result in most deaths are also likely to be best for economy, hence why we see governments trying to avoid a long period of lockdown.
How would having literally millions of people dying within the span of a few short months be "best for the economy"?

madbrain
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by madbrain » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:32 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:23 pm
Many have been saying the key is to stop the spread of the virus, which should be our highest priority. In the meanwhile, follow the other prescriptions of that article - keep people and businesses from collapsing. That would be good for people and the market. Also, see https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... and-health
Agree that both must be done. Unfortunately, right now it seems on a national level in the US, we are primarily dealing with the economic aspect, and not doing as much about the pandemic as we could.

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bligh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:33 pm

Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm
No matter what strategy we use the virus will be dealt with. Some strategies will result in more deaths (particularly in the elderly) than others. The strategies that result in most deaths are also likely to be best for economy, hence why we see governments trying to avoid a long period of lockdown.
How would having literally millions of people dying within the span of a few short months be "best for the economy"?
Every body dies. It is just a question of whether they die at 5, 30, 70, 90, etc. If I remember correctly, something like 5 million people die every month, of various causes. If this virus causes an extra 5 million people to die this year, that is an extra 8% more people dying this year. Since those that are being affected most are also the oldest, this will likely mean a slightly lower death rate over the next 5 to 10 years, hence the effect would basically even out over time.

This is definitely a case of society prioritizing lives over the economy. Losing a few million people over the span of a few short months would barely show up as a small blip to the economy. However, to every individual and family affected by these death, it would be a tragedy.
Last edited by bligh on Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Portfolio7 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:34 pm

jibantik wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm
I am not a market timer so I don't claim to know anything, but I would have thought stocks would drop more.

On the other hand, the sheer number of "bogleheads" who bailed on the market and are now saying that we cannot have hit the bottom yet makes me think that we have, in fact, hit the bottom. :mrgreen:
Not sure who is bailing, but I don't think we've hit bottom... and I still rebalanced into stocks on Monday.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:36 pm

nps wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:47 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:44 am
Apparently the market believes the current situation to be only slightly worse than in late 2018, when the drawdown of TSM was 20%.

It makes zero sense to me.
Markets can be inscrutable.
Nobody knows nothing. That is why I buy and hold no matter what. I have a 99 and 44/100% chance of making money in the long run. I will continue to bet with the house and not try to beat it; the house always wins.

jibantik
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jibantik » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:40 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:22 pm
jibantik wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm
I am not a market timer so I don't claim to know anything, but I would have thought stocks would drop more.

On the other hand, the sheer number of "bogleheads" who bailed on the market and are now saying that we cannot have hit the bottom yet makes me think that we have, in fact, hit the bottom. :mrgreen:
Who bailed? I think maybe one?
A ton of people are trying to time the market in this thread and others. People are selling off their equities, shorting, trying to figure out when to come back in, etc.

Only a few, THE PROUD, are staying the course like we should.

Perpetual
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Perpetual » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:40 pm

madbrain wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:36 pm
bligh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:33 pm
This is definitely a case of society prioritizing lives over the economy. Losing a few million people over the span of a few short months would barely show up as a small blip to the economy.
Even if I agreed with any aspect of your premise - and I don't - consider this : a lot of the deaths will be concentrated in the healthcare sector, not just the elderly. New doctors take a very long time to train. The economic impact could be very long-lasting.
Not only that, it would also make us much more vulnerable to the next epidemic or pandemic.

Keep in mind that the scenario is not "back to business as usual, economy improves, people die, virus goes away". The scenario is that the virus stays, and becomes seasonal, and some seasons can be much worse than others.

It's simply not a workable scenario.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:43 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:22 pm
jibantik wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm
I am not a market timer so I don't claim to know anything, but I would have thought stocks would drop more.

On the other hand, the sheer number of "bogleheads" who bailed on the market and are now saying that we cannot have hit the bottom yet makes me think that we have, in fact, hit the bottom. :mrgreen:
Who bailed? I think maybe one?
Way more than one, the internets never forgets. I do applaud those who called their shots. Most say what they did after the fact.
squirm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:37 pm
So as Bill Gates put it, go ahead and shop, eat out and buy houses, just ignore that heaping pile of dead bodies over there. Makes perfect sense to me.
Link? Sounds like something that you should contribute to Einstein.

I notice that construction on new housing is going full speed ahead again in New Jersey.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:50 pm

H-Town wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:11 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:52 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:44 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:27 am
So, we’re to believe that a 24% Market haircut from already-lofty valuations had priced in a record 3.3M in new unemployment claims?
Apparently the market believes the current situation to be only slightly worse than in late 2018, when the drawdown of TSM was 20%.

It makes zero sense to me.
Makes complete sense to me. Victory against COVID is inevitable, governments and central banks are responding with extremely aggressive fiscal manoeuvres and will likely continue to do so, economy may actually rebound too excessively.
Was there ever much doubt of that (i.e. the underlined)?

I don't think many here at least ever thought that this would spell the end of humanity, capitalism, the U.S., etc.
Maybe just my imagination, but I saw some posters here think that this is it. This is the end.
A few perhaps, but were there enough market participants to move stock prices much due to that viewpoint? And have those participants that held that view suddenly abandoned it?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:52 pm

bligh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:45 pm
squirm wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:37 pm
bligh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:33 pm
Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm
No matter what strategy we use the virus will be dealt with. Some strategies will result in more deaths (particularly in the elderly) than others. The strategies that result in most deaths are also likely to be best for economy, hence why we see governments trying to avoid a long period of lockdown.
How would having literally millions of people dying within the span of a few short months be "best for the economy"?
Every body dies. It is just a question of whether they die at 5, 30, 70, 90, etc. If I remember correctly, something like 5 million people die every month, of various causes. If this virus causes an extra 5 million people to die this year, that is an extra 8% more people dying this year. Since those that are being affected most are also the oldest, this will likely mean a slightly lower death rate over the next 5 to 10 years, hence the effect would basically even out over time.

This is definitely a case of society prioritizing lives over the economy. Losing a few million people over the span of a few short months would barely show up as a small blip to the economy. However, to every individual and family affected by these death, it would be a tragedy.
So as Bill Gates put it, go ahead and shop, eat out and buy houses, just ignore that heaping pile of dead bodies over there. Makes perfect sense to me.
That is what we have always done haven't we? Like I said, 5 million people die world wide from various causes, each month. Death is normal. Alcohol related deaths account for an estimated 88,000 deaths per year. https://www.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/ ... statistics .... When was the last time this kept anyone from going shopping, eating out and buying houses? This is quite an easily avoidable cause of death, at much lower economic costs! Society makes trade offs.

Just to be clear, I am laying out the argument for "the strategy that results in most deaths is also likely to be best for the economy". It has merit even if you do not agree with it. I am NOT stating my personal opinion on the matter.
I get it, but people are going to think twice about being squeezed in an aluminum tube, eating out, or being close to others where they might unknowingling be bringing the virus home to mom and grandma.

frugaltigris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by frugaltigris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:19 pm

This market seems "efficient" but dishonest.

frugaltigris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by frugaltigris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:25 pm
Click bate. :x
frugaltigris wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:19 pm
This market seems "efficient" but dishonest.
The market is full of manipulators playing the herd for suckers'. Buy and hold no matter what; if one can't do that only hold CDs.
Buy and hold is the main mantra for success. But is disheartening to have potentially hundreds of thousands dying, families and businesses in ruins and market and Fed just caring about $$$. Market may be "efficient" (I believe not) but certainly seems to have its moral compass broken.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:35 pm

frugaltigris wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm
Buy and hold is the main mantra for success. But is disheartening to have potentially hundreds of thousands dying, families and businesses in ruins and market and Fed just caring about $$$. Market may be "efficient" (I believe not) but certainly seems to have its moral compass broken.
I see it as 2 separate issues. Why the market needs to have moral compass? We, as human beings, can have compassion and whatnots. But it's not a job for the stock market.

frugaltigris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by frugaltigris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:53 pm

H-Town wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:35 pm
frugaltigris wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm
Buy and hold is the main mantra for success. But is disheartening to have potentially hundreds of thousands dying, families and businesses in ruins and market and Fed just caring about $$$. Market may be "efficient" (I believe not) but certainly seems to have its moral compass broken.
I see it as 2 separate issues. Why the market needs to have moral compass? We, as human beings, can have compassion and whatnots. But it's not a job for the stock market.
I am not complaining it should have a moral compass. Of course the market is built on the pillar of human greed. I am having rethinking on whether it is worth it.

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:56 pm

frugaltigris wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:53 pm
H-Town wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:35 pm
frugaltigris wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm
Buy and hold is the main mantra for success. But is disheartening to have potentially hundreds of thousands dying, families and businesses in ruins and market and Fed just caring about $$$. Market may be "efficient" (I believe not) but certainly seems to have its moral compass broken.
I see it as 2 separate issues. Why the market needs to have moral compass? We, as human beings, can have compassion and whatnots. But it's not a job for the stock market.
I am not complaining it should have a moral compass. Of course the market is built on the pillar of human greed. I am having rethinking on whether it is worth it.
It is worth it. Ignore the short term, don’t even give it the the slightest bit of attention. Think 30+ years

frugaltigris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by frugaltigris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:59 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:56 pm
frugaltigris wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:53 pm
H-Town wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:35 pm
frugaltigris wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm
Buy and hold is the main mantra for success. But is disheartening to have potentially hundreds of thousands dying, families and businesses in ruins and market and Fed just caring about $$$. Market may be "efficient" (I believe not) but certainly seems to have its moral compass broken.
I see it as 2 separate issues. Why the market needs to have moral compass? We, as human beings, can have compassion and whatnots. But it's not a job for the stock market.
I am not complaining it should have a moral compass. Of course the market is built on the pillar of human greed. I am having rethinking on whether it is worth it.
It is worth it. Ignore the short term, don’t even give it the the slightest bit of attention. Think 30+ years
Yes for a majority it is worth it. Not sure about myself.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:28 pm

Too lazy to dig around, but where are we now compared to the market high around Feb. 20-ish?
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:32 pm

Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:28 pm
Too lazy to dig around, but where are we now compared to the market high around Feb. 20-ish?
SP500 is down from 3386 to 2630 (-22.3%).

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:43 pm

Stef wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:32 pm
Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:28 pm
Too lazy to dig around, but where are we now compared to the market high around Feb. 20-ish?
SP500 is down from 3386 to 2630 (-22.3%).
Thanks!
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

Arabesque
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Arabesque » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:46 pm

India is under lockdown for 21 days. 1.3 billion not working/working from home. I’m not optimistic about a fast return to business as usual

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52043465

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:53 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:23 pm
bligh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:50 pm
madbrain wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:36 pm
bligh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:33 pm
This is definitely a case of society prioritizing lives over the economy. Losing a few million people over the span of a few short months would barely show up as a small blip to the economy.
Even if I agreed with any aspect of your premise - and I don't - consider this : a lot of the deaths will be concentrated in the healthcare sector, not just the elderly. New doctors take a very long time to train. The economic impact could be very long-lasting.
Agreed, we are left with a set of bad choices and we have to pick the least bad one. Just to be clear though, I am not arguing FOR saving the economy over lives. I was just stating the argument and I do believe it has some merit. I just cannot personally agree with it on moral grounds. Especially for a society as wealthy as ours. If it was a choice that was going to lead to millions starving as a result of the economic closure, it would be a different matter. Right now it is a choice between severe economic hardship for tens of millions, versus severe health related hardship for tens of millions plus death affecting millions of families. I can see those going through severe economic hardship due to this, taking a different position on the matter.
The idea that there's a trade-off between lives and the economy in this case is not one with good economic or epidemiological support. Here's an article from an economist https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... and-health
Excellent article. I entirely agree with the thesis.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

jay22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jay22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:02 pm

Have we seen the bottom? I doubt it.

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:01 pm

Is it reasonable to assume that the market has now priced in the stimulus bill? I’m a little surprised to see it going up 3 days in a row, to the tune of nearly 20%, when it has known all along this would pass and what’s in it. It’s going to need some more juice to keep moving up. Where will that juice come from? A Q1 GDP report that isn’t as bad as expected? Next Friday’s payroll report?

Clearly, we are back to the “bad news is good news” cycle that we spent 2010-2016 in.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:47 pm

A number of coronavirus posts have been removed. Please stay on-topic, which is about the market.

Also see: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:52 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:01 pm
Is it reasonable to assume that the market has now priced in the stimulus bill? I’m a little surprised to see it going up 3 days in a row, to the tune of nearly 20%, when it has known all along this would pass and what’s in it. It’s going to need some more juice to keep moving up. Where will that juice come from? A Q1 GDP report that isn’t as bad as expected? Next Friday’s payroll report?

Clearly, we are back to the “bad news is good news” cycle that we spent 2010-2016 in.
I'd like to think so, but people can still get excited for the signing. I'm unsure if/when the "sell the news" part happens.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by seychellois_lib » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:04 pm

bligh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:33 pm
Perpetual wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:20 pm
No matter what strategy we use the virus will be dealt with. Some strategies will result in more deaths (particularly in the elderly) than others. The strategies that result in most deaths are also likely to be best for economy, hence why we see governments trying to avoid a long period of lockdown.
How would having literally millions of people dying within the span of a few short months be "best for the economy"?
Every body dies. It is just a question of whether they die at 5, 30, 70, 90, etc. If I remember correctly, something like 5 million people die every month, of various causes. If this virus causes an extra 5 million people to die this year, that is an extra 8% more people dying this year. Since those that are being affected most are also the oldest, this will likely mean a slightly lower death rate over the next 5 to 10 years, hence the effect would basically even out over time.

This is definitely a case of society prioritizing lives over the economy. Losing a few million people over the span of a few short months would barely show up as a small blip to the economy. However, to every individual and family affected by these death, it would be a tragedy.
I am 68, I only risk dying if I interact with an infected person. I am not interacting and anyone my age would be a fool to do so regardless of economy start or no start. I am perfectly happy to have the economy restart. I will stay home along with the vast majority of presumably intelligent elderly people. To me the absolutely key question is how deadly is Covid19? Especially for the younger cohort. We won't know until we get our testing organized which is happening albeit not as quickly as we would like. I think the jury is way out on what we ought to do. And I am absolutely not a Covid19 denyer, it is indeed deadly and we don't want to overload hospitals but we have to look at who is in the hospitals overloading them. Mostly older folks or those with comorbidities. We should stay isolated as long as necessary.

I established a small $10K sandbox to play around with. Bought a little BRKB a couple days ago. Plan to add some AMZR and few others. I am assuming we will have ample opportunities for deals going forward, As far as my "real" portfolio is concerned ... STC.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:46 pm

Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:28 pm
Too lazy to dig around, but where are we now compared to the market high around Feb. 20-ish?
I didn't buy any VOO on February 20. The VOO I bought on February 18 is -22.24% and the VOO I bought on February 21 is -21.47%. I have a long way to go before I feel guilty about the money I made again. :?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fanmail » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:06 am

Pre market is down 3%. Could be a few things but doubt people want to be long into the weekend after a 20% up week considering what’s looming.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Mrmetalpole » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:24 am

Much of the bounce over past few days was short covering. Here’s Monday’s headline: US passes 100K cases, in fact this could be tomorrow’s headline! There will be bounces along the way, but without Fed intervention and backstopping, market would be down what? 50-60%

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:34 am

Mrmetalpole wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:24 am
Much of the bounce over past few days was short covering. Here’s Monday’s headline: US passes 100K cases, in fact this could be tomorrow’s headline! There will be bounces along the way, but without Fed intervention and backstopping, market would be down what? 50-60%
It's hard to imagine what the result would have been. I think this type of event is Exhibit A for why we have a Federal Reserve with strong independent monetary powers.

Im guessing we'd have seen 2008 again; frozen commercial paper, broken MM funds, and a general failing of the system.

And yeah, that won't be Mondays headline. It's quite likely to be tonight's headline. That and Boris Johnson being sick.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:48 am

Boris Johnson tests positive.

Methinks the markets may not take kindly to that.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by columbia » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:49 am

peskypesky wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:48 am
Boris Johnson tests positive.

Methinks the markets may not take kindly to that.
FTSE is down 5%.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:26 am

A few coronavirus posts have been removed. As a reminder, the main intent of the post must be related to the stock market.

Also see: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:14 am

Shortest bull market ever?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:23 am

We will close in green today. You can take these words to a bank. *

* Not really.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:58 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:23 am
We will close in green today. You can take these words to a bank. *

* Not really.
It doesn't look good for green. Not enough bump after the house passed the helicopters money package. One good thing I'm not out any income but I still get a check. What a country. :greedy

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:00 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:58 pm
It doesn't look good for green. Not enough bump after the house passed the helicopters money package. One good thing I'm not out any income but I still get a check. What a country. :greedy
Looking forward to all the threads about the package, finally we can talk about it without them getting locked. :)

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Toons » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:01 pm

Opportunity
:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:28 pm

UncleLeo has a question which I've moved into a new thread. See: [Which brokerage for leveraged ETFs?]
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:29 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:00 pm
Looking forward to all the threads about the package, finally we can talk about it without them getting locked. :)
Not yet... Hang in there. :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:30 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:29 pm
Not yet... Hang in there. :wink:
I know, I know, not quite there yet. :)

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