So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Momus
Posts: 928
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:23 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Momus » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:30 pm

We have about 6M people unemploymed right now at 3.5 -> 8%.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

It's gonna get worse before it's getting better. 10-30% unemployment is possible.

Great depression 2.0.

Novine
Posts: 1228
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:07 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Novine » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:35 pm

hbdad wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:56 am

I think the bottom is behind us. Lots of people said today would be down because of the unemployment numbers. The opposite is true. That tells me the market has already priced that in. There very well could be a V shaped recovery if this isn't as bad as everyone is making it seem. Just a few days ago, Gov. Newsom said 56% of CA would get it within a few weeks, roughly 26 million ppl. Well globally, to date, only about 500k people have gotten it. A lot of overstatements have been made! Add to that we are in the second week of stay at home orders, I expect the numbers to begin decreasing soon.
That's not what the Governor said. He said those were the potential numbers in 8 weeks if California did nothing. Obviously, he doesn't expect it to be that high or he wouldn't have bothered to institute the steps that they did.

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 5268
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 pm

huskerfan1414 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:23 am
.

Did we actually hit the bottom?? WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON :confused :shock:
Is this your first big bear?

The bear doesn't always eat you all at once.

It sometimes plays with you, making you think you can escape....lures people back into the market...then mauls them again.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

tombonneau
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 4:24 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by tombonneau » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:39 pm

RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:31 am
The following is the main reason why the bottom is not yet in:

Image
Not sure why the only post in this entire thread with relevant data hasn't been quoted yet. 8-)

If I'm reading this right, the previous record for shortest peak-to-trough of a bear market is 6 months? If that's true, we haven't even made it past the opening credits.

Ocean77
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 3:20 pm

Re: We hit bottom days ago...

Post by Ocean77 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:46 pm

Streptococcus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:05 pm
For those who are sitting out thinking that “this time is different” or we are in for another 30% decline or don’t buy the dip, etc.
Are you sure? A few days ago I made the case that the market will be down 60% from its high.
Today I make the case that we hit bottom a few days ago. And if you’re out, you started losing BIG :dollar :dollar a few days ago, when we had the biggest rally since 1933.
I can make those 2 extreme cases because I am still in. It does not cost me a penny :beer

So feel free to comment if you still expect the apocalypse (another 20-30%+ decline) and you are timing the market.
I think your predictions are a good reflection of the overall market sentiment and how that sentiment first turned down, and then up. I think the next turn will be down again.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 2120
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:47 pm

RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:31 am
The following is the main reason why the bottom is not yet in:

Image
I guess 1987 doesn’t count?

RayKeynes
Posts: 148
Joined: Mon Nov 11, 2019 2:14 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by RayKeynes » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:50 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:47 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:31 am
The following is the main reason why the bottom is not yet in:

Image
I guess 1987 doesn’t count?
1987 was around 4 months - Correct. The above data shows Peak to Through of real economic data.

james22
Posts: 1654
Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 2:22 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by james22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:56 pm

Basically, you can bet on a bounce that's just about as large as the average 9% decline in the initial correction that precedes an outright bear market.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4133995-time-hedge

As a reminder, bear markets evolve in distinct phases ...

The first down leg is generally a decline of about -11% in 50 days (median results). This is followed by a re-test rally of 8% over 29 days. After that re-test fails, the dreaded major down leg phase ensues, with a median decline of -29% over 105 days.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02- ... y-fool-you

Enganerd
Posts: 130
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:22 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Enganerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:56 pm

jhh9327 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:41 am
Enganerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 am
Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 am
For those who think the virus is slowing, it’s not. I am sorry to say this but every major city is going to look like NYC within the next month. Hospitals will be overwhelmed and we will all know friends or family who have been impacted by this virus. This will have major health and economic implications.

Most Americans (I’m not referring to people on this board) can’t think steps ahead. So their linear thought process is I feel fine, I’ll just go about my normal activities. Combine that with a virus that is severely contagious before people get symptoms and the end result is a growing pandemic.

The way I see it there are 3 solutions 1) everyone locks down for a few weeks 2) treatment is developed 3) vaccine is developed

It’s going to get worse before it gets better. This shouldn’t matter for how this group invests. I just can’t not respond to people who think this is over. Be smart and stay safe.
I felt this about 10 days ago when American leadership still seemed to be in denial and we were not testing. Since then we have taken things much more seriously and I do not see reason to believe that other than NYC and a few others, many areas of US will look like Milan. Of course we are seeing signs that America may not have the stomach for social distancing even with the evidence right in front of us.

Here is a great dashboard that normalizes numbers per capita. Unfortunately it does not break it down to cities. I think that would be useful, how is NYC compared to Milan. Comparing US to Italy is not apples to apples, and neither is NY state to Italy. But looking at the trends I no longer think most US states will be completely overwhelmed.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visuali ... 2sOEtarhjo
Stats don't look pretty and, to me, back up Valueinvestor2. Yesterday 5 states had over 500 new cases (NY, NJ, MA, FL, MI). The day before only 3 had over 500 new cases. Before that only 2 (NY and NJ).

Yesterday had 20 states with at least 100 new cases. The day before that was 17. Day before that was 15 I think. I agree with Gov Cuomo. NY is just ahead of the curve where others are going towards.
The stats are not pretty I agree. But 12 days ago I was reading articles about how the US is tracking roughly 12 days behind Italy. Italian doctors were then facing the agonizing decision to remove unlikely to survive patients from ventilators in order to treat those with better odds. At the time our authorities were being less than truthful about the situation. They were downplaying the threat and our poor testing procedures. I was sure every state was basically doomed to become overwhelmed much like the worst areas of Italy.

But that was not well reasoned opinion. Obviously, just positive case numbers, not normalized for population, is not a good way to make projections. Even when you normalize the country numbers by population it does not account for population density and culture. That is why comparing Milan per capita to NYC per capita would be better for forecasting.

Some areas like NYC were indeed late to respond. But some Midwest states took measures on the first positive case. Obviously our issue with testing is a big factor here. The x-axis of these charts is hard to compare country to country and state to state when testing procedures may vary tremendously. I am not optimistic in current talk of loosening social distancing policies and we have a ways to go on testing but I am not as pessimistic as I was 2 weeks ago.

whereskyle
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:29 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by whereskyle » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:02 pm

m@ver1ck wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:55 pm
The market is rigged. Corporations get bailouts. Stockholders win. I don’t like this as a middle class person, but as a stock holder this explains why vtsax has been doing wat better than vtiax. Not fundamentals, but because the US economy due to lobbying etc fundamentally favors corporations and hence stakeholders over people.

So - nothing to see here - no reason to sell. Congress will take care of us shareholders, even when millions starve cause they are jobless. Or if they die due to the virus.

Stay the course. The market is rigged in our favor.
:sharebeer Exactly why my wife told me to forget international when I brought it up. I firmly believe that no other country will take care of corporations like the U.S. will. Against her better judgment, I still hold some VT and VWO just in case of a political revolution, but I think corporatism will continue its reign for decades.
"I am better off than he is – for he knows nothing, and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know." - Socrates. "Nobody knows nothing." - Jack Bogle

Bankroll
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2019 1:07 pm
Location: Snohomish County

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Bankroll » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 pm
Is this your first big bear?

The bear doesn't always eat you all at once.

It sometimes plays with you, making you think you can escape....lures people back into the market...then mauls them again.

Best response to this thread.

mptfan
Posts: 5866
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:58 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by mptfan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:09 pm

I have no idea, but I'm going to guess that the S&P 500 closing price three days ago on March 23,2020 of 2,237.40 was the market low for this year.

Thesaints
Posts: 3454
Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:25 am

Re: We hit bottom days ago...

Post by Thesaints » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:12 pm

Streptococcus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:05 pm
A few days ago I made the case that the market will be down 60% from its high.
Today I make the case that we hit bottom a few days ago.
So, you have no idea. That wouldn't usually be a big problem, but this time turns out nobody has the foggiest idea and that's why we are experiencing those huge oscillations from one day to another.
The range of possible financial outcomes from coronavirus is huge. Bigger than anything else we ever saw in the past. Maybe the possibility of the Japanese taking over the West Coast while the Germans parade under Marble Arch was on a similar scale, but back then the economy was much, much less securitized and interconnected on a global basis than it is today.

User avatar
oneleaf
Posts: 2441
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 5:48 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by oneleaf » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:33 pm

m@ver1ck wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:55 pm
The market is rigged. Corporations get bailouts. Stockholders win. I don’t like this as a middle class person, but as a stock holder this explains why vtsax has been doing wat better than vtiax. Not fundamentals, but because the US economy due to lobbying etc fundamentally favors corporations and hence stakeholders over people.

So - nothing to see here - no reason to sell. Congress will take care of us shareholders, even when millions starve cause they are jobless. Or if they die due to the virus.

Stay the course. The market is rigged in our favor.
Honestly, this gives me more reason to invest in VTIAX over VTSAX, because at least there will be an equity risk premium going forward. There was a great podcast interview with Ben Inker from GMO (transcript here) where he more or less said he underestimated how complacent American voters are. This experience is making me feel like we can only expect low returns and low risk from US markets going forward. Or, as Ben Inker believes, there has to be some limit to letting corporations keep getting a bigger piece of the pie, which means markets could mean revert. No way to know, but I continue to spread globally.

surfstar
Posts: 2063
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by surfstar » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:42 pm

Bankroll wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 pm
Is this your first big bear?

The bear doesn't always eat you all at once.

It sometimes plays with you, making you think you can escape....lures people back into the market...then mauls them again.

Best response to this thread.
Remember, you don't have to outrun the bear, just your hiking partner.

k1982
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 12:36 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by k1982 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm

dead cat bounce

madbrain
Posts: 5334
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:06 pm
Location: San Jose, California

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by madbrain » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:55 pm

james22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:06 am
watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:53 pm
When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go.
I wouldn't necessarily assume interest in margin and HELOCs mean some believe the "market" is undervalued. It certainly isn't in my case.
Indeed. You can use those instruments to profit while market is on a downtrend, also.

User avatar
ThereAreNoGurus
Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm

k1982 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm
dead cat bounce
Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D
Trade the news and you will lose.

peskypesky
Posts: 165
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:56 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by peskypesky » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm

sucker rally

madbrain
Posts: 5334
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:06 pm
Location: San Jose, California

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by madbrain » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:06 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
sucker rally
That's my opinion. I'm not usually a gambler, but I bought some 6-months way in-the-money SPY puts in my Roth IRA today. Still only .75% of my portfolio, though.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 2120
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:09 pm

madbrain wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:06 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
sucker rally
That's my opinion. I'm not usually a gambler, but I bought some 6-months way in-the-money SPY puts in my Roth IRA today. Still only .75% of my portfolio, though.
If I were a gambler and if shorting the market didn't give me a sinking feeling in my gut, I'd be shorting the stuffing out of this market with SPXU.

User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 1109
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by firebirdparts » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:15 pm

Surely this must be a bull trap.
A fool and your money are soon partners

madbrain
Posts: 5334
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 5:06 pm
Location: San Jose, California

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by madbrain » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:17 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:09 pm
If I were a gambler and if shorting the market didn't give me a sinking feeling in my gut, I'd be shorting the stuffing out of this market with SPXU.
Can't short in a Roth IRA, and I would never do it for the same reasons as you. SPXU is meant to be held for less than a day, and as we can see today, the market can be quite irrational in the very short-term, so I'm just not going to place a bet that short. My bet is that at some point in the next 6 months, we will be lower than today, and perhaps much lower. I bought way in the money puts so that I wouldn't pay much in premium. This limits my upside, but also my risk. It is also a very small bet, just 2 contracts (at difference strike prices & dates). Baby steps.

User avatar
bligh
Posts: 1237
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 9:13 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by bligh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
k1982 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm
dead cat bounce
Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D
The deader the cat, the higher it bounces.

User avatar
ThereAreNoGurus
Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:35 pm

bligh wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
k1982 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm
dead cat bounce
Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D
The deader the cat, the higher it bounces.
Was not aware of that... it should be put in the BH wiki somewhere. :twisted:
Trade the news and you will lose.

todaysBob
Posts: 21
Joined: Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:39 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by todaysBob » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:41 pm

Isn't the market always out to get us :), so if most of the posts here say bottom is not behind us, it probbaly is? :sharebeer

Enganerd
Posts: 130
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:22 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Enganerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:41 pm

oneleaf wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:23 am
Enganerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 am
I felt this about 10 days ago when American leadership still seemed to be in denial and we were not testing. Since then we have taken things much more seriously and I do not see reason to believe that other than NYC and a few others, many areas of US will look like Milan. Of course we are seeing signs that America may not have the stomach for social distancing even with the evidence right in front of us.
We still aren't testing, though. Restrictions on who gets tested is trending in the wrong direction. Lots of people are dying without being confirmed... I know a nurse who is presumed to have it but probably won't even be tested... If we actually had the data (and it was totally within our capability to obtain enough tests to test WAY more people than we have), we might actually know more about this virus and make better decisions.

That said, I think there is a 50/50 chance we've already hit bottom. Impossible to know or have confidence in either outcomes.
Yes our testing is still far behind where we should be. And public discourse about easing the social distancing for the economy seems very short sighted. However, it is hard to compare state to state or country to country because of the large variance in testing. I believe Lombardy region of Italy has a very high CFR indicating they also are not testing enough.

I basically feel we could have bottomed. But because the large amount of discourse which seems to indicate the worst is past, or the cure is worse than letting it continue to spread, gives me doubt. I will leave some cash on the sidelines and watch how this next week plays out.

jello_nailer
Posts: 166
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 10:20 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by jello_nailer » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:28 pm

Be careful. This rally can rip your face off as they say, if you're timing. Buy and hold or DCA, sit back and grab a beer, this could be fun to watch.
Last edited by jello_nailer on Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

striker79
Posts: 9
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:38 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by striker79 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:29 pm

Short sucker stimulus rally. We just got into this mess. Look at the Shanghai composite, it fell and fell until they flattened the curve, and then it climbed all the way back up to similar levels like nothing happened. Now they have gone passed their previous low. We will be dealing with this for a while, we havent even reached the peak of the virus. This is just a short term stimulus rally. Only thing to keep this thing going is continuous stimulus which i dont see happening. 2 trillion is a lot of money, market is responding in kind. Too many people on these forums and general public are too enthusiastic thinking its all over just because of a stimulus.

reln
Posts: 64
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:01 pm

Re: We hit bottom days ago...

Post by reln » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:40 pm

Streptococcus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:05 pm
For those who are sitting out thinking that “this time is different” or we are in for another 30% decline or don’t buy the dip, etc.
Are you sure? A few days ago I made the case that the market will be down 60% from its high.
Today I make the case that we hit bottom a few days ago. And if you’re out, you started losing BIG :dollar :dollar a few days ago, when we had the biggest rally since 1933.
I can make those 2 extreme cases because I am still in. It does not cost me a penny :beer

So feel free to comment if you still expect the apocalypse (another 20-30%+ decline) and you are timing the market.
In all the way :sharebeer

reln
Posts: 64
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 4:01 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by reln » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:44 pm

striker79 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:29 pm
Short sucker stimulus rally. We just got into this mess. Look at the Shanghai composite, it fell and fell until they flattened the curve, and then it climbed all the way back up to similar levels like nothing happened. Now they have gone passed their previous low. We will be dealing with this for a while, we havent even reached the peak of the virus. This is just a short term stimulus rally. Only thing to keep this thing going is continuous stimulus which i dont see happening. 2 trillion is a lot of money, market is responding in kind. Too many people on these forums and general public are too enthusiastic thinking its all over just because of a stimulus.
The market knows about Shanghai, the sigmoidal infection rate, and every other fact, prediction, and projection. It has considered all known information. It will move up or down based on a change of expectation of change not on simply change.

User avatar
Stef
Posts: 629
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:45 pm

20% up in just 3 days.

This is the new bull market that started in March 2020! Looking forward to see great gains in the coming 10 years.

Hogan773
Posts: 464
Joined: Thu May 07, 2015 11:14 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Hogan773 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:48 pm

striker79 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:29 pm
Short sucker stimulus rally. We just got into this mess. Look at the Shanghai composite, it fell and fell until they flattened the curve, and then it climbed all the way back up to similar levels like nothing happened. Now they have gone passed their previous low. We will be dealing with this for a while, we havent even reached the peak of the virus. This is just a short term stimulus rally. Only thing to keep this thing going is continuous stimulus which i dont see happening. 2 trillion is a lot of money, market is responding in kind. Too many people on these forums and general public are too enthusiastic thinking its all over just because of a stimulus.
So would you suggest trimming some equity exposure into cash at this point and then wait for the fall?

User avatar
oneleaf
Posts: 2441
Joined: Mon Feb 19, 2007 5:48 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by oneleaf » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:50 pm

Hogan773 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:48 pm
So would you suggest trimming some equity exposure into cash at this point and then wait for the fall?
Not market timing myself, but I sold a bunch of equities today cuz i was over my rebalancing bands. What a crazy market. Makes me want to just do a target retirement fund and never look at my accounts again until I'm 60.

User avatar
White Coat Investor
Posts: 14490
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:11 pm
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth

Re: We hit bottom days ago...

Post by White Coat Investor » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:50 pm

markcoop wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:17 pm
White Coat Investor wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:10 pm
I have no idea. Just like I didn't on Monday or two weeks ago. But when the bottom does come, it will look and feel a lot like this week. How do I know? Because I've seen this movie before and I know how it ends. I just don't know when and what happens in the meantime.
I'm not so sure anyone knows how it ends. It may be a sharp "V" correction. It may be slow steady correction over many years of below average performance. It may be a slow recovery with lots of volatility over many years? It may have been ready for a correction and we only recover quickly to a half way point and then be more normal.
It ends with a down day followed by an up day and nobody will know if that was the bottom. That's what I meant.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

surfstar
Posts: 2063
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by surfstar » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:53 pm

RE: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

If you're walking forward while facing forward....right.

If you're walking backwards...wrong.
If you're rolling down a hill...right...wrong...right...wrong...

ValuationsMatter
Posts: 93
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2020 2:12 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by ValuationsMatter » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:59 pm

njdealguy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:48 am
Nearly noon and only 836 new cases of the virus in USA? Doesnt seem to be on pace so far of yesterday's 12k+ total.
The reporting comes in waves. We're at 13,732, now. We just surpassed China & Italy on the 'official' count of total cases. I don't believe China, though. I guess we'll see.

bck63
Posts: 951
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by bck63 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:07 pm

With earnings season coming, and it's likely accompanying shocking numbers, I personally don't think we're near the bottom. But nobody knows nothin'.

palanzo
Posts: 351
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 4:28 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by palanzo » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:40 pm

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
k1982 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm
dead cat bounce
Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D
All depends on how high you drop it :D

User avatar
ThereAreNoGurus
Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:54 pm

palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:40 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
k1982 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm
dead cat bounce
Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D
All depends on how high you drop it :D
And it happens to land on a trampoline... sheesh... :o
Trade the news and you will lose.

Hogan773
Posts: 464
Joined: Thu May 07, 2015 11:14 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Hogan773 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:14 pm

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:54 pm
palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:40 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
k1982 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm
dead cat bounce
Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D
All depends on how high you drop it :D
And it happens to land on a trampoline... sheesh... :o
yeah or if the Fed and US Government catches the dead cat, quickly puts it into an oversized T-shirt cannon and then shoots it straight up in the air again

User avatar
ThereAreNoGurus
Posts: 469
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:34 pm

Hogan773 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:14 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:54 pm
palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:40 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
k1982 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm
dead cat bounce
Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D
All depends on how high you drop it :D
And it happens to land on a trampoline... sheesh... :o
yeah or if the Fed and US Government catches the dead cat, quickly puts it into an oversized T-shirt cannon and then shoots it straight up in the air again
*LOL* This poor cat... Prior to this debacle, but during some other slump/correction, way up-thread, somebody posted a pic or described the hapless creature as impacting into a crater never to be seen again... but here we are...

Edited to add: Whoops, that reference to way up-thread was on the markets are soaring or falling thread... forgot which. :D
Trade the news and you will lose.

LeftCoastIV
Posts: 101
Joined: Wed May 01, 2019 7:19 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by LeftCoastIV » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:01 pm

The SP500 dropped 34% in 23 trading days, then gained over three days. Sounds more like volatility, than a bottom, but who knows...

CoastalWinds
Posts: 1063
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:28 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by CoastalWinds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:05 pm

hbdad wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:56 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:05 am
The market soars again... maybe the bottom is behind us? But it seems unfathomable to have a V-shaped recovery while the virus continues to spread. The US has now exceeded 70,000 cases and could pass China within a week for the dubious #1 spot. I don’t get it.
I think the bottom is behind us. Lots of people said today would be down because of the unemployment numbers. The opposite is true. That tells me the market has already priced that in. There very well could be a V shaped recovery if this isn't as bad as everyone is making it seem. Just a few days ago, Gov. Newsom said 56% of CA would get it within a few weeks, roughly 26 million ppl. Well globally, to date, only about 500k people have gotten it. A lot of overstatements have been made! Add to that we are in the second week of stay at home orders, I expect the numbers to begin decreasing soon.
In looking at the worldometer chart, the US has now passed China for # of cases. Over 82,000. And it is still rising exponentially with no sign of slowing.

adave
Posts: 248
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2007 7:17 pm
Location: Houston

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by adave » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:12 pm

Tough to trust the Chinese numbers. US has tested 550k people so far - good work on scaling up testing. 86% of tests negative. Hard to understand this market, I will keep some dry powder available while continuing to nibble here and there.

WhiteMaxima
Posts: 2122
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:17 pm

bottom was in 100 years ago. If you invested 10K in a diversified folio 100 years ago and never sell during market correction. Go figure how much the $10k investment worth today. What happend last 3 weeks is just pothole when you look back 5 years later. Stay calm, stay the course.

User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 3287
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:22 pm

Flubber Cat

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 5268
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:22 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:17 pm
bottom was in 100 years ago. If you invested 10K in a diversified folio 100 years ago and never sell during market correction. Go figure how much the $10k investment worth today. What happend last 3 weeks is just pothole when you look back 5 years later. Stay calm, stay the course.

Are you The Highlander?
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

Wannaretireearly
Posts: 873
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2010 4:39 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Wannaretireearly » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:24 pm

Moved a big chunk from TRD 2035/45 into S&P 500/vanguard windsor 2 last Thursday (i.e. moved into close to 100% stock when dow dropped below 20k).

Today I moved from those 2 funds back into a TRD 2030 (roughly 30/35% bonds). I guess I market timed today.

I feel comfortable with my TRDs. With 2030 I can ride if if markets keep going up, or buy into more aggressive TRDs if markets cycle down. I think the latter is more likely. 3m unemployed last week. Projections of 14m unemployed next 6 months. No one can predict earnings let alone GDP. Seems its gonna get ugly. I like to have some dry powder if it gets ugly. What's ugly? Dow 15k? Dow 12k? Markets down 50-60% potentially.

When *could* it turn? 4-5 weeks when we hopefully are at our peak deaths per day? I really hope that bottom is that quick, but who knows. Could be a protracted downturn thru 2021?

I like my TRD for this reason. Always has that bond cushion. I'm likely to cycle bw TRD 2030/35/40/45 to buy low next few months. If not (and markets have bottomed) I'll happily let 2030 ride.

Anyone else playing similar games with their TRD's with all this fluctuation?

Note: this is in my 401k accounts. I'm not really playing with my intl stock heavy taxable account. Cos of all the tax associated tax pain...

My ideal landing spot for AA is between 20-40% bonds so another reason I like these TRDs...

Comments/criticism welcome. Be healthy....
Buy Low, Sell High

peskypesky
Posts: 165
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:56 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by peskypesky » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:32 pm

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:54 pm
palanzo wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:40 pm
ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
k1982 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:46 pm
dead cat bounce
Never seen a dead animal bounce that high. Looks like it has some lively legs. :D
All depends on how high you drop it :D
And it happens to land on a trampoline... sheesh... :o
and you're on the moon, where gravity is a lot less than Earth?

Post Reply