Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:49 pm

So I need to update this thread. Sorry I haven't been on in a couple of days lol.

- So, as mentioned this was my first major crash. My investment in stocks over a good chunk of the last decade was mainly The Bull Market Run.

- When I looked at everything going on, I thought for sure I could time the market this time.

- I was wrong. I did pull out Monday evening like I said and I missed a good portion of the gain on Tuesday, but I did get back in and got some of the Tuesday bounce. I've been back in ever since. I was in an Index Fund prior and I just jumped back in through an ETF. The huge Tuesday run up immediately made it clear to me that I just can't time this.

- Now, this thing can still fall with the bad economic reports that will be coming out. But the lesson I've learned here is that I can't accurately TIME this. Even during The Great Shutdown, I thought for SURE I could time that the market was going to fall to DOW 10000-15000. But the reality is, I just don't know.

So I'm buying and holding, like I've always been doing. I still have at least 25 year horizon and this was just a learning experience. At least I learned early on though :D !!

FireSekr
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by FireSekr » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:55 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:49 pm
So I need to update this thread. Sorry I haven't been on in a couple of days lol.

- So, as mentioned this was my first major crash. My investment in stocks over a good chunk of the last decade was mainly The Bull Market Run.

- When I looked at everything going on, I thought for sure I could time the market this time.

- I was wrong. I did pull out Monday evening like I said and I missed a good portion of the gain on Tuesday, but I did get back in and got some of the Tuesday bounce. I've been back in ever since. I was in an Index Fund prior and I just jumped back in through an ETF. The huge Tuesday run up immediately made it clear to me that I just can't time this.

- Now, this thing can still fall with the bad economic reports that will be coming out. But the lesson I've learned here is that I can't accurately TIME this. Even during The Great Shutdown, I thought for SURE I could time that the market was going to fall to DOW 10000-15000. But the reality is, I just don't know.

So I'm buying and holding, like I've always been doing. I still have at least 25 year horizon and this was just a learning experience. At least I learned early on though :D !!
We all learn through experience. Living through 2008/9 I've made some mistakes too but nothing major. Those lessons have also made me understand that I can't possibly time the market, and I've been calm throughout this current crises because I had lived through that. This will make you stronger in the future and better able to withstand whatever the next crisis may be

Stay the course

BW1985
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by BW1985 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:57 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:15 pm
The best strategy is to not time the market and I will preach that until the end of day. But we have a different problem here. The issue here is that we are now in a crisis that the world has never seen before with The Great Shutdown.

I'm reading report after report after report, that The Great Shutdown will go beyond April. It will go until the month of June in some capacity. So this Great Shutdown isn't a temporary situation, it's going to be here for a number of months. You have entire States that are shut down, completely SHUT DOWN. You have sectors shut down. This can turn into a modern day version of The Great Depression.

- As a result, stocks are going to roller coaster ride all the way to DOW 15,000 in my opinion (or lower).

- I have $55,000 to recover (portion of principal and growth) in order to get back to the amount my equity investments were at the peak in January 2020. I have a long time horizon (25 years) to get the recovery back, but I don't see why I should stay in here and ride the market all the way down as now that $55,000 amount balloons to $70,000 or $75,000.

- So my strategy here is to move the monies to the side, let The Great Shutdown end, then get back in the market later.

- I know this looks like I'm trying to time the market and I honestly am not. I'm not trying to perfectly get out and get back in perfectly at the bottom, I don't know what the bottom is on this but I am predicting it's going to be way lower than DOW 19000 as of yesterday.

- So I made the move to move the monies out of equities and off to the side for now, until The Great Shutdown is over. I'll move the monies back in later in the year. Can I miss some gains with this? Yes. For example, DOW can ride down to 15,000 and spike to 17,000 and I miss it that portion. I get it. But by not having rode down to 15,000 I can afford to miss said gains and get back in around 17,000 in this example.

Again, I know this looks like timing the market, but there's no way with The Great Shutdown that stocks aren't about to tank lower. There's just no way.
What has changed since Saturday to make you realize this now? Just the fact that the market has gone up?
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

Topic Author
Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:02 pm

FireSekr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:55 pm
We all learn through experience. Living through 2008/9 I've made some mistakes too but nothing major. Those lessons have also made me understand that I can't possibly time the market, and I've been calm throughout this current crises because I had lived through that. This will make you stronger in the future and better able to withstand whatever the next crisis may be

Stay the course
Exactly!

BW1985 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:57 pm

What has changed since Saturday to make you realize this now? Just the fact that the market has gone up?

Well, it was because my plan all along has been buy and hold a diversified/market based set of index fund(s). I have never and was never going to try to time a bottom or top of a market, because I didn't think I had enough information to do so and the best thing I could do as an individual investor was just buy and hold the market, and ride the roller coaster.

Well, the only reason I thought this one was different was because I can't remember a time within the last 100 years in this country that everything was shutting down like this. I thought the bad economic reports would certainly tank the markets (and listen, it still could tank the markets).

But when I seen the rally on Tuesday morning/early afternoon that didn't stop (like it did on Monday) it made me quickly realize that under no circumstance, even this one where it seemed like the world was ending, can I as an individual investor truly TIME this market. I really, really thought I could TIME it this time, but it just hit me very quick/fast that I couldn't accurately do it.

So the best thing for me is to ride the roller coaster and make sure I stick to my proper risk tolerance.

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bertilak
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by bertilak » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:45 pm

BW1985 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:57 pm
What has changed since Saturday to make you realize this now? Just the fact that the market has gone up?
Give the guy a break. The change is called a life lesson and I'm guessing we have all had a few. And it's NOT "Just the fact that the market has gone up" but the fact that the ups and downs are not as predictable as one might at first think. It's a VERY noisy signal with lots of feedback. It is agravated by forces that profit from the confusion.

It's never-ending.
Last edited by bertilak on Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet

TimeTheMarket
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by TimeTheMarket » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:47 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:15 pm
- I know this looks like I'm trying to time the market and I honestly am not.
Honestly you are. Exactly. This is exactly what you're doing.

I'm glad you're back in, but you still negatively hit your portfolio by five digits by doing exactly what everybody has always said not to do.
Last edited by TimeTheMarket on Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Username is not serious :)

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:50 pm

bertilak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:45 pm
BW1985 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:57 pm
What has changed since Saturday to make you realize this now? Just the fact that the market has gone up?
Give the guy a break. The change is called a life lesson and I'm guessing we have all had a few. And it's NOT "Just the fact that the market has gone up" but the fact that the ups and downs are not as predictable as one might at first think. It's a VERY noisy signal with lots of feedback. It is agravated by forces that profit from the confusion.

It's never-ending.
At-least the OP was humble enough to report back. Less than one trading day to capitulate on the "rebalance" is amusing though. OP I hope you don't regret things even further if we hit S&P 1500 next week :twisted:.

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bertilak
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by bertilak » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:56 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:50 pm
bertilak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:45 pm
BW1985 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:57 pm
What has changed since Saturday to make you realize this now? Just the fact that the market has gone up?
Give the guy a break. The change is called a life lesson and I'm guessing we have all had a few. And it's NOT "Just the fact that the market has gone up" but the fact that the ups and downs are not as predictable as one might at first think. It's a VERY noisy signal with lots of feedback. It is agravated by forces that profit from the confusion.

It's never-ending.
At-least the OP was humble enough to report back.
Yes, the OP gets LOTS of respect for that.
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet

BW1985
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by BW1985 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:16 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:50 pm
bertilak wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:45 pm
BW1985 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:57 pm
What has changed since Saturday to make you realize this now? Just the fact that the market has gone up?
Give the guy a break. The change is called a life lesson and I'm guessing we have all had a few. And it's NOT "Just the fact that the market has gone up" but the fact that the ups and downs are not as predictable as one might at first think. It's a VERY noisy signal with lots of feedback. It is agravated by forces that profit from the confusion.

It's never-ending.
At-least the OP was humble enough to report back. Less than one trading day to capitulate on the "rebalance" is amusing though. OP I hope you don't regret things even further if we hit S&P 1500 next week :twisted:.
100% agree. Welcome back OP. :sharebeer
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

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TxAg
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by TxAg » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:33 pm

Welcome back :sharebeer

But please stop calling it The Great Shutdown

Topic Author
Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:08 pm

Thanks guys and yes, I'm buying and holding. I'm doing what Jack Bogle said and again, I only thought this was different because of The Great Shutdown (I know you guys hate that term but I promise it's the last time I'll use it lol :D).

As I told Moto, I understand my Risk Tolerance fully and despite my age of 36, I do not have an allocation of 70% equity over fixed income/bonds because that's never been my tolerance. So my asset allocation (which is Conservative/Moderate) is right for my Risk Tolerance and I think I'll be all set going forward until Retirement in 25 to 26 years :D

manatee2005
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by manatee2005 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:21 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:02 pm
FireSekr wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:55 pm
We all learn through experience. Living through 2008/9 I've made some mistakes too but nothing major. Those lessons have also made me understand that I can't possibly time the market, and I've been calm throughout this current crises because I had lived through that. This will make you stronger in the future and better able to withstand whatever the next crisis may be

Stay the course
Exactly!

BW1985 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:57 pm

What has changed since Saturday to make you realize this now? Just the fact that the market has gone up?

Well, it was because my plan all along has been buy and hold a diversified/market based set of index fund(s). I have never and was never going to try to time a bottom or top of a market, because I didn't think I had enough information to do so and the best thing I could do as an individual investor was just buy and hold the market, and ride the roller coaster.

Well, the only reason I thought this one was different was because I can't remember a time within the last 100 years in this country that everything was shutting down like this. I thought the bad economic reports would certainly tank the markets (and listen, it still could tank the markets).

But when I seen the rally on Tuesday morning/early afternoon that didn't stop (like it did on Monday) it made me quickly realize that under no circumstance, even this one where it seemed like the world was ending, can I as an individual investor truly TIME this market. I really, really thought I could TIME it this time, but it just hit me very quick/fast that I couldn't accurately do it.

So the best thing for me is to ride the roller coaster and make sure I stick to my proper risk tolerance.
I learned this lesson in 2008. Glad you’re learning it now.

vipertom1970
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by vipertom1970 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:24 pm

Buy more if I were you, opportunity like this does not come too often for new money. This is my third rodeo and bought another 580k last couple weeks. I even sold my brand new high end sport car to raise dry powder :mrgreen:

History has already shown that not 1 penny was lost if you held equities for 20 years.
Last edited by vipertom1970 on Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:31 pm, edited 3 times in total.

siriusblack
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by siriusblack » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:30 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:08 pm
Thanks guys and yes, I'm buying and holding. I'm doing what Jack Bogle said and again, I only thought this was different because of The Great Shutdown (I know you guys hate that term but I promise it's the last time I'll use it lol :D).

As I told Moto, I understand my Risk Tolerance fully and despite my age of 36, I do not have an allocation of 70% equity over fixed income/bonds because that's never been my tolerance. So my asset allocation (which is Conservative/Moderate) is right for my Risk Tolerance and I think I'll be all set going forward until Retirement in 25 to 26 years :D
Ambitious994-- I challenge you, here and now, to declare an asset allocation and then stick with it, and then report back here in a year (put a reminder on your calendar) and let us know how it went from this point. By the way, I agree with those above, your humility and willingness to learn/change will serve you well in the future.

Also-- be prepared for the possibility that (a) the bottom may already be in, OR, (b) stocks may go lower than the recent lows. Your AA should be something that you can live with regardless of whether it's A or B.

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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:31 pm

siriusblack wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:30 pm

Ambitious994-- I challenge you, here and now, to declare an asset allocation and then stick with it, and then report back here in a year (put a reminder on your calendar) and let us know how it went from this point. By the way, I agree with those above, your humility and willingness to learn/change will serve you well in the future.

Also-- be prepared for the possibility that (a) the bottom may already be in, OR, (b) stocks may go lower than the recent lows. Your AA should be something that you can live with regardless of whether it's A or B.
Will do!

jnet2000
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by jnet2000 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:00 pm

Good luck with what you are doing. As for us, we are staying the course.
"You really don't need leverage in this world much. If you're smart, you're going to make a lot of money without borrowing" Warren Buffet

vicferrari
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by vicferrari » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:07 pm

Well I leaned the same lesson the hard way. Lost 7500 on a 50k investment as market started going down. My adviser and others said kinda like a bad 9-11. Then turned much worse so got out so I could have the liquid. Not a terrible loss to have the cash but enough of one that I’m kicking myself for trying to time the market. I am also NOT going to time it again by buying low. We really don’t know how long this will last and I need cash for the next six months. When earnings reports come out, unemployment remains high, and casualties continue to be high, it’s gonna be nasty. For quite a while.

Hyperchicken
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Hyperchicken » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:10 pm

vicferrari - If you sold because you needed cash, this is not market timing.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Scott S » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:36 am

Whew!
Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:08 pm
As I told Moto, I understand my Risk Tolerance fully and despite my age of 36, I do not have an allocation of 70% equity over fixed income/bonds because that's never been my tolerance. So my asset allocation (which is Conservative/Moderate) is right for my Risk Tolerance and I think I'll be all set going forward until Retirement in 25 to 26 years :D
Remember that your investing horizon doesn't end when you retire. I'm 3 years older than you, but hope I have at least another 50 years in me. That's a lot of time to weather the ups and downs of the market. :sharebeer
My Plan: (Age-10)% in bonds until I reach age 60, 50/50 thereafter. Equity split: 50/50 US/Int'l, Bond split: 50/50 TBM/TIPS.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Waiting_for_Godot » Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:20 am

Kudos! I capitulated and went into Treasuries after debating for a few weeks. I definitely appreciated Watchnerd's kind words during my struggle, and am sorry to hear that he's becoming frustrated by those who are losing their nerve.

I wasn't surprised by the big bounce running up to the passing of the stimulus bill, but in theory I should have been; wasn't this a certainty, and should have been priced in 2 weeks ago or so?

Also I'm a bit dismayed by the snark (thanks for the shares!)... once we put our money where our mouths are, the results should speak for themselves

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Makaveli
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Makaveli » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:07 am

retired@50 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:11 pm
saintsfan342000 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:09 pm
xraygoggles wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:01 pm
I've seen so many posts recently of people "not market timing" but just selling their equities for cash.
It is really remarkable. People know market timing is a losing game, so rather than just admit that's what they're doing, they craft some circuitous argument about how what they're doing is something more intelligent than reactionary timing. It's super entertaining.
+1
It IS super entertaining. Like a kid caught in the cookie jar.

Regards,
That’s a big cookie jar.

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G12
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by G12 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:09 pm

Down $55k?? That's not even a flesh wound. :wink:

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by vicferrari » Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:14 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:10 pm
vicferrari - If you sold because you needed cash, this is not market timing.
I called it that because I got in mid March for 50k for total stock index and markets started tanking real bad. It looked like it was going to be a much longer ordeal than I expected so I took my money out a week later (lost 7500 in the market drop just that week). I didn’t need it for emergency cash then—but if this lasts more than three months I’ll need it. This was much worse than at the time financial advisors I talked to predicted. (They said a bad 9-11; well, it appears much worse than that). Hence my attempt to get in and make money when it was going down. But I’m not doing that again. I have 12 years to retirement and will continue with just simple monthly DCA. I’m done ever trying the “timing” thing again. Chalk it up to experience. I’ll stick to what I do well—practicing law. I’m far from a financial wizard.

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Ambitious994
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ambitious994 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:48 pm

Just had to come bump my thread here. Man, who can possibly predict the stock market? Maybe Warren Buffett and that's it lol? Who would have predicted we would be back at 2600 level on the S&P 500 this fast?

So glad that I came to my senses early in my investing career. Remember, I only moved out last Monday evening (3/23) but I jumped back in later in the trading day on Tuesday afternoon 3/24 through an ETF. Staying the course for life. There's absolutely no way someone can time this thing lol.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:10 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:48 pm
Just had to come bump my thread here. Man, who can possibly predict the stock market? Maybe Warren Buffett and that's it lol? Who would have predicted we would be back at 2600 level on the S&P 500 this fast?

So glad that I came to my senses early in my investing career. Remember, I only moved out last Monday evening (3/23) but I jumped back in later in the trading day on Tuesday afternoon 3/24 through an ETF. Staying the course for life. There's absolutely no way someone can time this thing lol.
Buffet doesn't claim to predict the stock market, either.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Scott S » Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:38 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:48 pm
Just had to come bump my thread here. Man, who can possibly predict the stock market? Maybe Warren Buffett and that's it lol? Who would have predicted we would be back at 2600 level on the S&P 500 this fast?
I don't make predictions, but I'm not surprised at all either. Not all of the recent news has been bad. :P
So glad that I came to my senses early in my investing career. Remember, I only moved out last Monday evening (3/23) but I jumped back in later in the trading day on Tuesday afternoon 3/24 through an ETF. Staying the course for life. There's absolutely no way someone can time this thing lol.
Whew, glad for you too. Now turn off the news and stock apps and have a beer. :sharebeer
My Plan: (Age-10)% in bonds until I reach age 60, 50/50 thereafter. Equity split: 50/50 US/Int'l, Bond split: 50/50 TBM/TIPS.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by HenrysPlan2 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:57 pm

It’s 2600 now, should I put more cash in? Still have a lost of $80k

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by sergeant » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:40 pm

HenrysPlan2 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:57 pm
It’s 2600 now, should I put more cash in? Still have a lost of $80k
You should probably stick to your IPS which should have you at your appropriate asset allocation.
Lincoln 3 EOW! AA 40/60.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by pkcrafter » Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:48 pm

sergeant wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:40 pm
HenrysPlan2 wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:57 pm
It’s 2600 now, should I put more cash in? Still have a lost of $80k
You should probably stick to your IPS which should have you at your appropriate asset allocation.
+1 !

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Don't play, simply stay.


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When times are good, investors tend to forget about risk and focus on opportunity. When times are bad, investors tend to forget about opportunity and focus on risk.

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