Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

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bugleheadd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by bugleheadd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm

did anyone sell yesterday?

Alex GR
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Alex GR » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm

So it seems like there are two camps here:
1) "Stop saying it's just a paper loss. It is *NOT* a paper loss but a REAL loss. Your account value is what it is. It is very real."
2) "You still own shares in the best companies on earth, with hard-working and smart employees. Keep 'em forever."

Since I've decided to ride this out (seems to be much easier today w/+9.3%, but yesterday and last week was VERY VERY hard) I try to rationalize my decision by believing #2. Furthermore, I try to calm myself down during this crash by making a bold statement: It shouldn't worry me this much what's going on with equities 'cause I'll NEVER sell them (except to rebalance according to IPS).
Here's the rationale that helps keep my senses:
Please help me here---> Suppose by retirement age I have $1M in a typical 2-fund portfolio w/allocation of 50/50. Exactly how much does this kick out in interest/dividends?
I am free and clear on my condo and living expenses are $2500/Mo (today's dollars). Suppose I take SS and the payment is $1500. I then turn off reinvestment (DRIP) on the funds. Am I correct that the interest on VTI (is it 2.52%?) and dividend payment on the bond is 2.7% (or is it 1.94%? I still have a lot to learn...) comes to approx. $26k/Year? Yeah I realize there may be tax on that if it's in taxable. But either way, since I only need $12k, so I've got nothing to worry about.
Any obvious flaw here except that I am using today's dollars?
Anyway, this kind of rationalization helps me personally stay the course.
Last edited by Alex GR on Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm

ginrummy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:26 pm
He was a good sport to come back. Do what you like OP, but I hope the criticism of the board helped change your mind. You reached out and you got an answer. Nice work.
I think this is all an act of performance art.

I'm suspecting mathguy isn't an investor at all.

He's actually an out-of-work community theater actor who is practicing his craft best he can while his theater troupe is on lockdown.
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chevca
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by chevca » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:29 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
I had a feeling it was all talk. See my post earlier ^^

Thanks for the entertainment, at least. :D

ginrummy
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by ginrummy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:35 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm
ginrummy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:26 pm
He was a good sport to come back. Do what you like OP, but I hope the criticism of the board helped change your mind. You reached out and you got an answer. Nice work.
I think this is all an act of performance art.

I'm suspecting mathguy isn't an investor at all.

He's actually an out-of-work community theater actor who is practicing his craft best he can while his theater troupe is on lockdown.
Well, it's a much better act than the guy down who folds himself into a pretzel down the street.

RCL
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by RCL » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:23 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm
ginrummy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:26 pm
He was a good sport to come back. Do what you like OP, but I hope the criticism of the board helped change your mind. You reached out and you got an answer. Nice work.
I think this is all an act of performance art.

I'm suspecting mathguy isn't an investor at all.

He's actually an out-of-work community theater actor who is practicing his craft best he can while his theater troupe is on lockdown.
Really?? you think that comment was called for?
These are trying times and some people react differently than you do; there's no reason to respond they way you did.
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bligh
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by bligh » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:37 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
Thanks for following up on the thread OP. Ignore the snarky comments.

In my opinion, we haven't seen the bottom yet, and this was essentially a dead cat bounce. We are a long way from being out of the woods just yet. I think we will see darker days ahead. Having said that, I think you did the right thing by not selling today. Why? Because you have no idea which one of us is right. We have our theories, but events may not unfold the way we planned. Provided you are not in a situation where you fear job loss, have a decent emergency fund, and have a long enough time horizon, the best approach right now is to hold on to what you got, and keep adding to your position as best you can. Will it pay off? No one knows the future, but history shows us that this has been the right strategy.

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:05 pm

RCL wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:23 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:28 pm
ginrummy wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:26 pm
He was a good sport to come back. Do what you like OP, but I hope the criticism of the board helped change your mind. You reached out and you got an answer. Nice work.
I think this is all an act of performance art.

I'm suspecting mathguy isn't an investor at all.

He's actually an out-of-work community theater actor who is practicing his craft best he can while his theater troupe is on lockdown.
Really?? you think that comment was called for?
These are trying times and some people react differently than you do; there's no reason to respond they way you did.
Yes, I think it was called for after he told us all in another thread about how anyone could have seen this coming and he could be a great market timer if he was doing it full time, and he didn't need our opinions.
Last edited by watchnerd on Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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vipertom1970
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by vipertom1970 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:07 pm

bligh wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:37 pm
mathguy3021 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
Thanks for following up on the thread OP. Ignore the snarky comments.

In my opinion, we haven't seen the bottom yet, and this was essentially a dead cat bounce. We are a long way from being out of the woods just yet. I think we will see darker days ahead. Having said that, I think you did the right thing by not selling today. Why? Because you have no idea which one of us is right. We have our theories, but events may not unfold the way we planned. Provided you are not in a situation where you fear job loss, have a decent emergency fund, and have a long enough time horizon, the best approach right now is to hold on to what you got, and keep adding to your position as best you can. Will it pay off? No one knows the future, but history shows us that this has been the right strategy.
did you read his other thread ? he made claim to be a best day trader and easily could time the market :oops:

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Elysium » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:26 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:31 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm


There seems to be a lot of panic sellers in denial about their panic
Aren't they usually?

I've never met a panic seller who admits they're panicking. It's always rationalized as being an entirely reasonable act.
True. There is always some rationalization going on.

Although, we have had one or two posters back in 2008 who were honest about it.

Elysium
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Elysium » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:37 pm

the way wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:40 pm
Elysium wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:06 pm
OP, are you selling? curious minds wants to know, or is this the start of a rally, market often is ahead of news, so who knows if we end up opening up businesses back in another week, and new stimulus coming in.. always hard to guess the direction right twice.
Not the OP, but if the gains hold, I will probably put in an order 15mins before the close to liquidate my IRA. We've have had so many +10 and -10% days that this bounce can't be the end of it. I also have other accounts, so this way if things really dive, at least I will have done something.

btw, I did panic and move my 401k to cash during the "Little Rocketman" stuff, and stayed in cash ever since! I lost 2+ years of gains, but guess what - it would have been 25% down at yesterday's price (that's from my sale price - not from the highs)! So if I can get back in later at anything lower in these 2 accounts, it will have been a good move.

Events to watch for:
- 2T relief bill that is being debated right now
- huge unemployment report coming out later this week
- Trump opening business in 2-3 weeks
- how much of a surge and how prepared the hospitals are by 3-4 weeks
- how much long-term damage was done to small businesses and jobs in 2-3 months
My comment to OP was in jest. Now that he followed up with lack of conviction to sell today, we know he is wavering and have no clue.

Most of this is noise. I don't make portfolio decisions based on any noise, but my long term plan, which is to buy & hold equities, the only way to build long term wealth in the stock market. If you are going to sell based on every little information then you aren't going to be very successful.

I ignored most of the noise through 2000-02 and 2008, continued buying, same this time, other mini-crashes I don't even remember them, someone said we had crashes in 2011, 2015, and 2018, I may have missed them because they weren't large enough.

negwtg
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by negwtg » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:42 pm

If you have high quality American companies in your portfolio, you are making a huge mistake. They will come back, they always have and they always will

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Godot » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:43 pm

jasperhobbs wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:20 pm
There won't be a bounce tomorrow. Looks like another blood bath.
Good call :oops:
Estragon: I can't go on like this. | Vladimir: That's what you think. | ― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Godot » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:44 pm

Godot wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:43 pm
jasperhobbs wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:20 pm
There won't be a bounce tomorrow. Looks like another blood bath.
Estragon: I can't go on like this. | Vladimir: That's what you think. | ― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot

Chip
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Chip » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:11 am

mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:38 pm
I didn't dismiss the feedback. I will only sell on a significant bounce. If there is no significant bounce, I will not sell. This market has been in free fall. I've never seen a 32% crash in one month. I need a bear market rally in order to sell. Please read the title of my post.
by mathguy3021 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
I guess I didn't realize that the DJIA jumping 11.4% in one day doesn't count as a bear market rally.

I will give the OP credit for coming back and posting. OP, if you're holding, REALLY holding, no matter what happens, you're actually a buy & hold investor. But that includes the possibility that the market goes way down from here (or Monday's close).

Fear, greed, panic, rationalization, all in just two days. I'll bookmark this one for the next bear market.

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by michaeljc70 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:20 am

mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:59 pm
I've decided to sell 100% of my stocks in all investment accounts to preserve 2016 gains, and to prevent an irrecoverable loss in hard earned savings. This goes against all the rules I've learned about investing, but this time is very different so the rules go out the window. Stocks will keep crashing until this virus has peaked. I cannot wait until stocks are near zero.
Is there a time in the past stocks didn't recover? This time isn't very different. The market is down less than in the last recession or the tech crash.

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by neo_ny » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:34 am

I didn't sell on Monday but did sell at market close on Tuesday some of my equity portfolio (~20%). I have been wanting to switch these MF positions into ETFs so that I can use limit order etc and figured might as well try to do it on Tuesday's rally. My "intention" is to have this money back into the market by the middle of the year at the most - we'll see! I am fully aware that if I end up gaining a little (most likely to go the other way!) in the process it'll be pure luck and not because I have some amazing ability to time the market. I have no idea why a 11% uptick on Tuesday was warranted - yes there was the expectation of the huge stimulus bill but we were also bracing for more bad news (unemployment numbers, increase in coronavirus cases/deaths etc)

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Wiggums » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:36 am

bugleheadd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:27 pm
did anyone sell yesterday?
I did not sell...

winterfan
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by winterfan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:13 am

I love the chart posted. I remember all of these emotions vividly in the last recession. It seemed worse to me than this does, but maybe that's just experience talking.

vanuber
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by vanuber » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:18 am

neo_ny wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:34 am
I didn't sell on Monday but did sell at market close on Tuesday some of my equity portfolio (~20%).
I did the same ($50K). Rebalancing / lateral move of individual stocks to index funds. If I am lucky, the market will drop again before the funds clear and I buy.

Wanted to add, selling was really difficult psychologically with the market down. This is a lateral move and can help my tax position but it's giving me a lot of anxiety.

HettyGreenIsMyHero
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by HettyGreenIsMyHero » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:00 pm

I'm suprised at how many know how much their accounts have "lost". I don't know or care since I'm not going to sell a single share of anything. If you're not going to need it for years what does it matter? If you will need the money sooner why is it in stocks and not a CD? I think many people got spoiled by seeing their net worth on paper go up, up, up for years. It can't last forever!

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:22 pm

Chip wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:11 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:38 pm
I didn't dismiss the feedback. I will only sell on a significant bounce. If there is no significant bounce, I will not sell. This market has been in free fall. I've never seen a 32% crash in one month. I need a bear market rally in order to sell. Please read the title of my post.
by mathguy3021 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
I guess I didn't realize that the DJIA jumping 11.4% in one day doesn't count as a bear market rally.

I will give the OP credit for coming back and posting. OP, if you're holding, REALLY holding, no matter what happens, you're actually a buy & hold investor. But that includes the possibility that the market goes way down from here (or Monday's close).

Fear, greed, panic, rationalization, all in just two days. I'll bookmark this one for the next bear market.
Will FOMO keep OP in the market?

What will happen if the markets go down more over the next few weeks?

Will he regret not selling in the bear rally like he said he would?

Stay tuned...

Sometimes life does imitate art.
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Nicolas Perrault
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Nicolas Perrault » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:57 am

cost.basis wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:56 pm
OP wants to lock in his 2016 gains. So, why is that a bad thing? He could lock in his gains and DCA back in the market as it stabilizes.
He's not "locking in the gains" if he DCAs back in the market...

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Nicolas Perrault
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Nicolas Perrault » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 am

mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:41 pm
Let me make one correction. I will be selling 100% in my retirement accounts, and tax loss harvesting the taxable account. I cannot afford the huge capital gains tax from selling all stocks in my taxable account since I'm sitting on huge gains after this crash.
You cannot afford to pay tax on the "huge gains" you made? OP that's a shameless boast :D
Last edited by Nicolas Perrault on Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Nicolas Perrault
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Nicolas Perrault » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:42 am

Chip wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:11 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:38 pm
I didn't dismiss the feedback. I will only sell on a significant bounce. If there is no significant bounce, I will not sell. This market has been in free fall. I've never seen a 32% crash in one month. I need a bear market rally in order to sell. Please read the title of my post.
by mathguy3021 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:57 pm
This could be the bottom. I will be holding. I will not sell stocks near the bottom.
I guess I didn't realize that the DJIA jumping 11.4% in one day doesn't count as a bear market rally.
When it's going down he's claiming he wants to sell because the stocks are going to zero. He actually, truly, believes the stocks are going to zero. He's just waiting for a bounce.

He then gets lucky and gets the very bounce he's been asking for. Greed, however, then kicks in. No longer does he think stocks are going to zero. He thinks they are recovering, so he holds.

OP if you're a mathguy, give me the probability distribution of where you will be after a hundred iterations of the following Markov chain:
(Start at (1))

(1) Stocks are going down: Catastrophe! Hold until they start going up!

(2) Stocks are going up: Great! Hold until they go up more!

Transition probabilities: 1-to-1, 49%. 1-to-2, 51%. 2-to-1, 49%. 2-to-2: 51%.

Answer: Who cares? Both lead to the same behaviour, holding. The difference between (1) and (2) is that in (1), fear is trying to beat greed but barely fails, greed exceeds fear just a bit. In (2) greed far exceeds fear. Watch out, because one day fear may beat greed and you will fold.

According to a recent post by nisiprius, a lot of people capitulate when the market starts going down again after a large bear market rally. They had psychologically accepted that the bounce was a recovery and they are not emotionally prepared for a second tanking.

Try the above problem again, again with a hundred iterations, and a third possible state:

(3) Stocks are going down and I'm tired of this! The market always goes down-sideways-down-down! I'm getting out of here to "lock in my gains" (don't tell me I'm locking in losses, I am not!). Sell all stocks.

Transition probabilities: 1-to-1, 48%, 1-to-2, 49%. 1-to-3, 3%. 2-to-1, 48%. 2-to-2, 49%. 2-to-3, 3%. 3-to-3: 100%.

Answer: State (3) with ~99.8% probability.

If you think that the above Markov chain model is a good one (you don't have to), the math says you'll eventually leave the market at a bad time. The greed-and-fear rollercoaster that you seem to be on is a recipe for disaster. Just be a little greedy (buy stocks) and a little fearful (buy bonds), and then accept whatever happens.

My advice: Either calm down and find another hobby. Be happy with what you have, some people are dying. Others are dirt poor and can't protect themselves from the virus as they would like. You've got a lot money, and presumably, if you're thinking about it, you're healthy.

Or sell most of your stocks. I'm reading you may already have a buyer in watchnerd :D

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watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:23 am

Nicolas Perrault wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:41 pm
Let me make one correction. I will be selling 100% in my retirement accounts, and tax loss harvesting the taxable account. I cannot afford the huge capital gains tax from selling all stocks in my taxable account since I'm sitting on huge gains after this crash.
You cannot afford to pay tax on the "huge gains" you made? OP that's a shameless boast :D
It also doesn't make any sense. If you realize your huge gains, you have a huge pile of cash from which to pay taxes.
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mathguy3021
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by mathguy3021 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:27 am

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:23 am
Nicolas Perrault wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:41 pm
Let me make one correction. I will be selling 100% in my retirement accounts, and tax loss harvesting the taxable account. I cannot afford the huge capital gains tax from selling all stocks in my taxable account since I'm sitting on huge gains after this crash.
You cannot afford to pay tax on the "huge gains" you made? OP that's a shameless boast :D
It also doesn't make any sense. If you realize your huge gains, you have a huge pile of cash from which to pay taxes.
I refuse to pay huge taxes and lose a huge amount of the gain from selling. It's not about affordability.

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by nigel_ht » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:29 am

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:23 am
Nicolas Perrault wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:41 pm
Let me make one correction. I will be selling 100% in my retirement accounts, and tax loss harvesting the taxable account. I cannot afford the huge capital gains tax from selling all stocks in my taxable account since I'm sitting on huge gains after this crash.
You cannot afford to pay tax on the "huge gains" you made? OP that's a shameless boast :D
It also doesn't make any sense. If you realize your huge gains, you have a huge pile of cash from which to pay taxes.
True, but they might no longer be gains after that.

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mathguy3021
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by mathguy3021 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:32 am

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:23 am
Nicolas Perrault wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:41 pm
Let me make one correction. I will be selling 100% in my retirement accounts, and tax loss harvesting the taxable account. I cannot afford the huge capital gains tax from selling all stocks in my taxable account since I'm sitting on huge gains after this crash.
You cannot afford to pay tax on the "huge gains" you made? OP that's a shameless boast :D
It also doesn't make any sense. If you realize your huge gains, you have a huge pile of cash from which to pay taxes.
When I say "can't afford" I mean that I'm unwilling to lose so much of the gain to taxes.

chevca
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by chevca » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:36 am

It's about flip flopping. :wink:

Are you at least learning anything about yourself reading your thread here from start to now?

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:37 am

mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:32 am
watchnerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:23 am
Nicolas Perrault wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:41 pm
Let me make one correction. I will be selling 100% in my retirement accounts, and tax loss harvesting the taxable account. I cannot afford the huge capital gains tax from selling all stocks in my taxable account since I'm sitting on huge gains after this crash.
You cannot afford to pay tax on the "huge gains" you made? OP that's a shameless boast :D
It also doesn't make any sense. If you realize your huge gains, you have a huge pile of cash from which to pay taxes.
When I say "can't afford" I mean that I'm unwilling to lose so much of the gain to taxes.
So you're talking about holding at least long enough to get short term vs long term cap gains?

Or holding for decades until you're retired and in a lower tax bracket?
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chevca
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by chevca » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:47 am

Should it really matter, mathguy? I mean, if you have to pay "huge" taxes, it means you made huge money. If you're done with the market and it's craziness and you know it's only going to go down from here, who cares about taxes? Take your money and run.... would be the rational thought. But, rational thinking isn't really going on here.

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mathguy3021
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by mathguy3021 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am

It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.

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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:27 am

mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.
Yay, reason has prevailed!

Glad you're not panicked anymore.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

deltaneutral83
Posts: 1491
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:25 pm

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by deltaneutral83 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:31 am

HettyGreenIsMyHero wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:00 pm
I'm suprised at how many know how much their accounts have "lost". I don't know or care since I'm not going to sell a single share of anything. If you're not going to need it for years what does it matter? TLH If you will need the money sooner why is it in stocks and not a CD? I think many people got spoiled by seeing their net worth on paper go up, up, up for years. It can't last forever!
I can harvest the losses in a taxable account and pair them against gains in real estate later and when I croak my heirs will get the step in basis on the index funds I leave them. That's just one scenario.

vipertom1970
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by vipertom1970 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am

mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.

+1 for being honest about this. This is my third recession and the ending will be the same as the last two endings.

nigel_ht
Posts: 281
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by nigel_ht » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm

vipertom1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.
+1 for being honest about this. This is my third recession and the ending will be the same as the last two endings.
Kinda funny how folks that think this will end lower are panicking as nobody knows what the market will do but folks can confidently say it's going to end just like the last two...

User avatar
watchnerd
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:12 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm

Kinda funny how folks that think this will end lower are panicking as nobody knows what the market will do but folks can confidently say it's going to end just like the last two...
This is why markets move and we have "price discovery".
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

cashboy
Posts: 325
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by cashboy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:44 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:31 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:19 pm


There seems to be a lot of panic sellers in denial about their panic
Aren't they usually?

I've never met a panic seller who admits they're panicking. It's always rationalized as being an entirely reasonable act.
this.
Three-Fund Portfolio: FSPSX - FXAIX - FXNAX (with slight tilt of CDs - CASH - Canned Beans - Rice - Bottled Water)

grog
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by grog » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:39 pm

Bfwolf wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:01 pm
Enzo IX wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:16 pm
You people aren't doing the "Pump and Dump on me", are you? I will be pissed.
Genuine LOL from me
Lol, Enzo is onto us.

Elysium
Posts: 2462
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:22 pm

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Elysium » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:51 pm

mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.
Congratulations on seeing the light!

But, just remember though you were on the ledge and ready to pull the plug had we not had the three day rally with the power that it had combined with the incentives from the Government at the same time. Imagine what would have happened if the stimulus was still taking few more days and the market only reacted with a less than adequate rally that lasted a day, you might have pulled the plug and accepted your losses. Only to see next week things change with a powerful three day rally.

Remember this next time, and also you might still have to change your AA if you maximum tolerable loss is only 50%, because equities could drop 80% or more. We should only risk what we could afford to lose, even with a diversified portfolio.

minimalistmarc
Posts: 653
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:49 pm

nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm
vipertom1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.
+1 for being honest about this. This is my third recession and the ending will be the same as the last two endings.
Kinda funny how folks that think this will end lower are panicking as nobody knows what the market will do but folks can confidently say it's going to end just like the last two...
Not really, if you don’t believe the market will go up in the long term why would you invest?

I believe the market will go higher over > 15 years with some extreme volatility along the way. If I didn’t believe that, I wouldn’t invest

vipertom1970
Posts: 638
Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:06 pm

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by vipertom1970 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:06 pm

^^^^^^exactly

annu
Posts: 405
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Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by annu » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:17 pm

I sold all of my 401k stock holding from q1 of 2019 and earlier, as cost basis are really high for all later stuff, and losses on older stuff was around 10 to 15 %.
My decision had nothing to do with market, swan events or fear of loss, but realization after getting first hand data on medical side of things and how ill prepared we are, and data does not lie. It can be wrong, but did a lot of analysis to best of my capability this week, in trends and how escalations are happening with covid19.

This is first time I am using data out side of my job where that is all I do, especially for something this large in scope. I work as data engineer, so will see, as many times data can convey different decisions to folks, while I may lose money by doing this, but I look forward to reusing this as learning, it is not going to be make or break event for me and my wife, but I was very tempted and excited to try. If folks are interested I will share in 3 weeks, right or wrong, mostly looked at incubation period, time in hospital for critical patients and capacity point for hospitals at which stage, with every new patient, care quality does not scale. Surprisingly all the data is publically available. Just posting now, so I can update later at some point as well.
Did not touch anything in taxeable, as started early this year there, and already did tlh thanks to help from folks here

nigel_ht
Posts: 281
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by nigel_ht » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:31 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:49 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm
vipertom1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.
+1 for being honest about this. This is my third recession and the ending will be the same as the last two endings.
Kinda funny how folks that think this will end lower are panicking as nobody knows what the market will do but folks can confidently say it's going to end just like the last two...
Not really, if you don’t believe the market will go up in the long term why would you invest?

I believe the market will go higher over > 15 years with some extreme volatility along the way. If I didn’t believe that, I wouldn’t invest
I believe it will likely go up.

That’s different than my flatly asserting it will be just like the last two recessions or that it will be up after 15 years...

Other markets have fallen off their highs and never recovered or took a long time to recover.

minimalistmarc
Posts: 653
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by minimalistmarc » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:22 am

nigel_ht wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:31 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:49 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm
vipertom1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am
mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.
+1 for being honest about this. This is my third recession and the ending will be the same as the last two endings.
Kinda funny how folks that think this will end lower are panicking as nobody knows what the market will do but folks can confidently say it's going to end just like the last two...
Not really, if you don’t believe the market will go up in the long term why would you invest?

I believe the market will go higher over > 15 years with some extreme volatility along the way. If I didn’t believe that, I wouldn’t invest
I believe it will likely go up.

That’s different than my flatly asserting it will be just like the last two recessions or that it will be up after 15 years...

Other markets have fallen off their highs and never recovered or took a long time to recover.
True, but I’m investing in the all world, and I am very confident it will go up in the long term.

minimalistmarc
Posts: 653
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by minimalistmarc » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:23 am

annu wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:17 pm
I sold all of my 401k stock holding from q1 of 2019 and earlier, as cost basis are really high for all later stuff, and losses on older stuff was around 10 to 15 %.
My decision had nothing to do with market, swan events or fear of loss, but realization after getting first hand data on medical side of things and how ill prepared we are, and data does not lie. It can be wrong, but did a lot of analysis to best of my capability this week, in trends and how escalations are happening with covid19.

This is first time I am using data out side of my job where that is all I do, especially for something this large in scope. I work as data engineer, so will see, as many times data can convey different decisions to folks, while I may lose money by doing this, but I look forward to reusing this as learning, it is not going to be make or break event for me and my wife, but I was very tempted and excited to try. If folks are interested I will share in 3 weeks, right or wrong, mostly looked at incubation period, time in hospital for critical patients and capacity point for hospitals at which stage, with every new patient, care quality does not scale. Surprisingly all the data is publically available. Just posting now, so I can update later at some point as well.
Did not touch anything in taxeable, as started early this year there, and already did tlh thanks to help from folks here
So you’re timing the market? Doesn’t work, but good luck to you

Pinotage
Posts: 339
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 6:02 am
Location: Springfield

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by Pinotage » Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:29 am

mathguy3021 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:59 am
It is not only taxes. It's the fact that this capital gain will preclude me from making regular Roth IRA contributions due to the boost in MAGI from the huge capital gain. I refuse to complicate the matter with the backdoor Roth IRA after already contributing normally for 2020.

I have changed my mind about selling. The rate of the freefall was my concern, but now I don't think we'll see 80% loss. I think we'll stay under 50% loss. The virus will peak and the market will bottom. I just don't see that this becomes a depression given what the fed is doing.
OP - glad to know you’ve made a decision!

But for perspective - juggling your IRA plans from front door to back door...a mild inconvenience. Truly huge capital gains may offset a lot of mild inconveniences. Just sayin.

nigel_ht
Posts: 281
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by nigel_ht » Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:50 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:22 am
nigel_ht wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:31 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:49 pm
nigel_ht wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:08 pm
vipertom1970 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am

+1 for being honest about this. This is my third recession and the ending will be the same as the last two endings.
Kinda funny how folks that think this will end lower are panicking as nobody knows what the market will do but folks can confidently say it's going to end just like the last two...
Not really, if you don’t believe the market will go up in the long term why would you invest?

I believe the market will go higher over > 15 years with some extreme volatility along the way. If I didn’t believe that, I wouldn’t invest
I believe it will likely go up.

That’s different than my flatly asserting it will be just like the last two recessions or that it will be up after 15 years...

Other markets have fallen off their highs and never recovered or took a long time to recover.
True, but I’m investing in the all world, and I am very confident it will go up in the long term.
That's moving of the goal posts. The assertion was that THIS recession will recover just like the last two.

What you're arguing is that diversification would have helped Nikkei investors which is true...although in this instance I would ask who is going to be the equivalent of the US market if we crater?

China? Perhaps...but they haven't recovered to their own peak in 2007 (6K) or even 2015 (5K) hovering between 2K-3K today (SSE). VGTSX peaked in 2007 and hasn't recovered yet either 13 years later.

annu
Posts: 405
Joined: Mon Nov 04, 2019 7:55 pm

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

Post by annu » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:30 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:23 am
annu wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:17 pm
I sold all of my 401k stock holding from q1 of 2019 and earlier, as cost basis are really high for all later stuff, and losses on older stuff was around 10 to 15 %.
My decision had nothing to do with market, swan events or fear of loss, but realization after getting first hand data on medical side of things and how ill prepared we are, and data does not lie. It can be wrong, but did a lot of analysis to best of my capability this week, in trends and how escalations are happening with covid19.

This is first time I am using data out side of my job where that is all I do, especially for something this large in scope. I work as data engineer, so will see, as many times data can convey different decisions to folks, while I may lose money by doing this, but I look forward to reusing this as learning, it is not going to be make or break event for me and my wife, but I was very tempted and excited to try. If folks are interested I will share in 3 weeks, right or wrong, mostly looked at incubation period, time in hospital for critical patients and capacity point for hospitals at which stage, with every new patient, care quality does not scale. Surprisingly all the data is publically available. Just posting now, so I can update later at some point as well.
Did not touch anything in taxeable, as started early this year there, and already did tlh thanks to help from folks here
So you’re timing the market? Doesn’t work, but good luck to you
Reason VTSAX/TSM market or 3 fund portfolio is recommended, as data has shown it works. I only see what data is pointing with covid19 spread, there is no projection of market behavior, predicting what companies will do well or fail, but just evaluating data that is ready available to decide how long close downs will last, and how other counties, with 2-3 weeks lead on incubation period are currently going through. And the fact, we are not even considering second wave yet, like China, where they shutdown boarders, I personally feel, I am making a data based decision to react to covid19, the same way I used it not to go to mexico, or have any international travel, social distancing but still also seeing it considered a hoax/joke, my reaction to data in this case it just happens its related to financial market, which sucks as besides TLH, have not done anything, but you gotta do the person in personal finance at some point. I am not a prepper, waiting for end of world, look @ https://i.redd.it/h2i8h2v3z8p41.jpg, one public link I can share, as all I have is on local system. This before data started coming out, how folks are leaving cities to rural areas, or areas with less reported cases, while a big reason for that is non availability of tests, and at the same time also much less access to hospitals with capacity. Then there is also data bias due to region specific factors, e.g. look @ https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 8rank.html, we are way up there, unlike some of other countries with high infection rate, with lots of data indicating there are many contributing factors besides Age, as correlation of getting old and acquiring health problems does not happen the same way/rate everywhere.

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