Retirement in AZ-suggestions please

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 9920
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi , N. Arizona

Re: Retirement in AZ-suggestions please

Post by Sandtrap » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm

ram wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:13 pm
rich126 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:44 pm
sil2017 wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:54 pm
Canceled trip to Scottsdale next month so no house hunting yet.

Not taking a risk by taking a flight now. In fact, I canceled 2 trips to see my friend and my mom in April
If things last a few months, I'd anticipate some price drops, 10-20%. Some of the demand here are due to house flippers, speculators, people from CA, etc. And more than a few use leverage so when things break, it can get ugly.

I was hoping things would hold through the summer since I may sell my place but if prices drop I may be better off staying put or renting it out. I just don't think a 2,000 sq ft home in Scottsdale should go for $600K and up. Not enough high paying jobs here. It isn't silicon valley where jobs pay more and I'm sure homes start at $1M+.

Just my 2 cents.
Any idea what percent of Scottsdale homes are owned by people who made their money elsewhere. These include people who have retired there and not yet retired people who have bought a house there for potential future retirement.
Possibly:

1 Large percentage of "upper strata" Scottsdale have homes elsewhere.
2 Smaller percentage of folks originally from Arizona (same for Prescott, Sedona, other more affluent areas)
3 Large percentage from East and West Coast, sold or still own higher end properties.
4 Higher income levels = retired professionals, retired business folks, etc. Yes. Money made elsewhere in HCOL areas. But not all.
5 Supply and Demand. $600k and up homes are not dependent on jobs in the local Phoenix area because the clientele buying those homes are not dependent on that unless professionals or higher career levels, business owners, etc.
6 Upper Scottsdale homes run 800k + >>> 1-2 million+ in the higher strata areas.

j :happy
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know

rich126
Posts: 1279
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:56 pm

Re: Retirement in AZ-suggestions please

Post by rich126 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:01 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm
ram wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:13 pm
rich126 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:44 pm
sil2017 wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:54 pm
Canceled trip to Scottsdale next month so no house hunting yet.

Not taking a risk by taking a flight now. In fact, I canceled 2 trips to see my friend and my mom in April
If things last a few months, I'd anticipate some price drops, 10-20%. Some of the demand here are due to house flippers, speculators, people from CA, etc. And more than a few use leverage so when things break, it can get ugly.

I was hoping things would hold through the summer since I may sell my place but if prices drop I may be better off staying put or renting it out. I just don't think a 2,000 sq ft home in Scottsdale should go for $600K and up. Not enough high paying jobs here. It isn't silicon valley where jobs pay more and I'm sure homes start at $1M+.

Just my 2 cents.
Any idea what percent of Scottsdale homes are owned by people who made their money elsewhere. These include people who have retired there and not yet retired people who have bought a house there for potential future retirement.
Possibly:

1 Large percentage of "upper strata" Scottsdale have homes elsewhere.
2 Smaller percentage of folks originally from Arizona (same for Prescott, Sedona, other more affluent areas)
3 Large percentage from East and West Coast, sold or still own higher end properties.
4 Higher income levels = retired professionals, retired business folks, etc. Yes. Money made elsewhere in HCOL areas. But not all.
5 Supply and Demand. $600k and up homes are not dependent on jobs in the local Phoenix area because the clientele buying those homes are not dependent on that unless professionals or higher career levels, business owners, etc.
6 Upper Scottsdale homes run 800k + >>> 1-2 million+ in the higher strata areas.

j :happy
I don't know the percentages but I do know back in 2008, one of the million dollar areas (Paradise Valley) had tons of houses for sale and was hit hard. I looked at the homes but as a single guy I didn't need a house that big, nor did I want the upkeep. Obviously I could have made some serious money selling it 10 years later (well that was true for anything you bought in the Scottsdale area in the 08-11 time frame).

One thing that helped the area in the 2008-2011 time frame were Canadian buyers. The Canadian dollar got around 1-1 to the US dollar and they bought a number of homes. Kept things from getting even worse.

I'll check with an agent I know.

User avatar
Sandtrap
Posts: 9920
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2016 6:32 pm
Location: Hawaii No Ka Oi , N. Arizona

Re: Retirement in AZ-suggestions please

Post by Sandtrap » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 pm

rich126 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:01 pm
Sandtrap wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:25 pm
ram wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:13 pm
rich126 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:44 pm
sil2017 wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:54 pm
Canceled trip to Scottsdale next month so no house hunting yet.

Not taking a risk by taking a flight now. In fact, I canceled 2 trips to see my friend and my mom in April
If things last a few months, I'd anticipate some price drops, 10-20%. Some of the demand here are due to house flippers, speculators, people from CA, etc. And more than a few use leverage so when things break, it can get ugly.

I was hoping things would hold through the summer since I may sell my place but if prices drop I may be better off staying put or renting it out. I just don't think a 2,000 sq ft home in Scottsdale should go for $600K and up. Not enough high paying jobs here. It isn't silicon valley where jobs pay more and I'm sure homes start at $1M+.

Just my 2 cents.
Any idea what percent of Scottsdale homes are owned by people who made their money elsewhere. These include people who have retired there and not yet retired people who have bought a house there for potential future retirement.
Possibly:

1 Large percentage of "upper strata" Scottsdale have homes elsewhere.
2 Smaller percentage of folks originally from Arizona (same for Prescott, Sedona, other more affluent areas)
3 Large percentage from East and West Coast, sold or still own higher end properties.
4 Higher income levels = retired professionals, retired business folks, etc. Yes. Money made elsewhere in HCOL areas. But not all.
5 Supply and Demand. $600k and up homes are not dependent on jobs in the local Phoenix area because the clientele buying those homes are not dependent on that unless professionals or higher career levels, business owners, etc.
6 Upper Scottsdale homes run 800k + >>> 1-2 million+ in the higher strata areas.

j :happy
I don't know the percentages but I do know back in 2008, one of the million dollar areas (Paradise Valley) had tons of houses for sale and was hit hard. I looked at the homes but as a single guy I didn't need a house that big, nor did I want the upkeep. Obviously I could have made some serious money selling it 10 years later (well that was true for anything you bought in the Scottsdale area in the 08-11 time frame).

One thing that helped the area in the 2008-2011 time frame were Canadian buyers. The Canadian dollar got around 1-1 to the US dollar and they bought a number of homes. Kept things from getting even worse.

I'll check with an agent I know.
+1
I was trying to scoop up the few remaining low hanging fruit, apartment buildings, in Scottsdale/Tempe, in 2011-12 and the Canadian investors were buying up everything sight unseen on the lst hour/minute of active listings, or sooner. They were paying full asking or higher. A small developer/investor like me didn't have a chance compared to these power buyers.
Similar thing happened in Hawaii when the Japanese corporations were buying up everything.

j :happy
Wiki Bogleheads Wiki: Everything You Need to Know

Pu239
Posts: 233
Joined: Mon Dec 17, 2018 6:24 pm

Re: Retirement in AZ-suggestions please

Post by Pu239 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:06 pm

If it matters, Scottsdale is one of the few places with a walk-in Vanguard office.
Between the idea And the reality...Between the motion And the act...Falls the Shadow - T. S. Eliot

rich126
Posts: 1279
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:56 pm

Re: Retirement in AZ-suggestions please

Post by rich126 » Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:41 pm

@sandtrap

I had a friend who was trying to team me up with a realtor to snag a bunch of dirt cheap properties back then. Looking back I would have made a fortune but I didn’t know the guy and don’t ever go all in on anything. The risk was too high. Like right now. I am mostly cash, LTT and gold. Will eventually get more stocks but we got months before this disaster improves.

Post Reply