Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

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Rus In Urbe
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Rus In Urbe » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:32 pm

*
roguewarrior0. wrote:
My prediction is mid-May will be an entry point for 40-50% down (earnings, guidance, employment rates). Not market timing but trying to patient for when I will be comfortable to come in with my dry powder.
I have a big pile of cash at the moment and am re-deploying. It's all crystal ball stuff, but I'm rather with your thinking, that the market is still feeling its way downward. All kinds of death and bad economic numbers lie just ahead. Ugh.

Nevertheless, I'm steadily getting back to my AA.

STC. Rus. :beer
I'd like to live as a poor man with lots of money. ~Pablo Picasso

FrankLUSMC
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by FrankLUSMC » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:11 am

I moved $40K from IRA to Roth on Monday 3/23/2020. Not really dry powder, but dry tax dollars that won't be used until April 2021.
:sharebeer

vipertom1970
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by vipertom1970 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:06 am

I got about 580K in between DOW 25K-18K but too bad 1/2 of the purchase was made when the DOW was 23K.
Last edited by vipertom1970 on Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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F150HD
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:30 pm


roguewarrior0
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by roguewarrior0 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:21 am

We have talked about waiting on the dry powder for the stock market, but anyone have plans on the bond market side?

My current AA is:
  • 7% Stocks
  • 10% Bonds
  • 83% Cash (mm)
My target AA is:
  • 70% Stocks
  • 25% Bonds
  • 5% Cash


On Total Stock, I will jump in after the market drops 45% from peak (-25% now). I will do this in 1/3's. 1/3 @ -45%, 1/3 @-50, 1/3 @ ? The final 3rd will be based on whether it is still falling or rebounding.

I was thinking of buying Total Bonds (BND) when it drops back another 4-5% to achieve my AA on bonds. That would put BND in the ~$80 range. Otherwise I will just hold cash. Thoughts?

Lee_WSP
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Lee_WSP » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:58 pm

roguewarrior0 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:21 am
We have talked about waiting on the dry powder for the stock market, but anyone have plans on the bond market side?
I'm cashing out TLT if it ever hits 170 again. Otherwise, it still provides a good buoy.

Skeeter1
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Skeeter1 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:58 pm

F150HD wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:21 pm
Skeeter1 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm
I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
you mean you bought in your own taxable account for her? maybe I misunderstood.
Yes. Actually this may sound crazy but I have been converting some of my traditional IRA to a Roth. With some of the "new" Roth money i am buying a new , separate S&P 500 fund that will specifically be for her. So far i have invested a total of $5000 in that fund. I notified her parents (my son and daughter in law) that this is hers and available when she is 18. I know that this is unorthodox but it will grow tax free and distributed tax free when needed.
I hope to continue to do this every year for her birthday, holidays and whenever the feeling hits. Hope that explains it.
PS I will probably never need my Roth money so it was for legacy to begin with.

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F150HD
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:33 pm

why am I getting the feeling that this week and/or next might be the worst of them all as the C19 spread maximizes....

anyone seeing it the other way around?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by TheTimeLord » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:36 pm

F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:33 pm
why am I getting the feeling that this week and/or next might be the worst of them all as the C19 spread maximizes....

anyone seeing it the other way around?
Do you believe the expectation cases and deaths in the U.S. will spike over the next couple weeks is not widely held?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

columbia
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by columbia » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:49 pm

I have a lot - and am holding tight.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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F150HD
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:11 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:36 pm
F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:33 pm
why am I getting the feeling that this week and/or next might be the worst of them all as the C19 spread maximizes....

anyone seeing it the other way around?
Do you believe the expectation cases and deaths in the U.S. will spike over the next couple weeks is not widely held?
I do believe the C19 'worst' will be next X weeks. Unsure how the market will react. Will some argue its 'priced in'?

what do you think?

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TheTimeLord
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by TheTimeLord » Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:47 pm

F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:11 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:36 pm
F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:33 pm
why am I getting the feeling that this week and/or next might be the worst of them all as the C19 spread maximizes....

anyone seeing it the other way around?
Do you believe the expectation cases and deaths in the U.S. will spike over the next couple weeks is not widely held?
I do believe the C19 'worst' will be next X weeks. Unsure how the market will react. Will some argue its 'priced in'?

what do you think?
I would lean towards priced in. I would expect the market to react more to an increase in hot spots rather than an increase in the raw numbers as long as the healthcare system isn't overrun.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Stef
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Stef » Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:14 pm

Stef wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:28 am
Everytime the market recovers like that I get a feeling of panic for missing out on gains with my dry powder! Why didn't I go allin when VTI was below 110$? It was on the level from 5 years ago!
FOMO! :?

EFF_fan81
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by EFF_fan81 » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:17 pm

F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:33 pm
why am I getting the feeling that this week and/or next might be the worst of them all as the C19 spread maximizes....

anyone seeing it the other way around?
Temporary low. I feel the worst, at least in terms of morale, will be in this fall when people realize this thing is still dragging on and not going away.

No idea how the market will react though.

jdb
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by jdb » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:29 pm

columbia wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:49 pm
I have a lot - and am holding tight.
Me too. See you in mid December. Good luck.

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fredflinstone
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by fredflinstone » Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:32 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:36 pm
F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:33 pm
why am I getting the feeling that this week and/or next might be the worst of them all as the C19 spread maximizes....

anyone seeing it the other way around?
Do you believe the expectation cases and deaths in the U.S. will spike over the next couple weeks is not widely held?
There is an interesting discussion about those expectations over at this thread: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=305217&start=4450

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F150HD
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:54 pm

fredflinstone wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:32 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:36 pm
F150HD wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:33 pm
why am I getting the feeling that this week and/or next might be the worst of them all as the C19 spread maximizes....

anyone seeing it the other way around?
Do you believe the expectation cases and deaths in the U.S. will spike over the next couple weeks is not widely held?
There is an interesting discussion about those expectations over at this thread: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=305217&start=4450
yea have seen and read chunks here and there, I just hadn't drifted back yet. Thanks.

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backofbeyond
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by backofbeyond » Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:11 pm

Continue to buy in 5% bands. So last Monday was the bottom, so far. I've picked up a few stocks at mind blowing prices, like Wendy's at 70% off it's high. Playing with 10% of my portfolio. Don't try this at home. :twisted:
The question isn't at what age I want to retire, it is at what income. - George Foreman

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F150HD
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by F150HD » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:48 pm

backofbeyond wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:11 pm
Continue to buy in 5% bands. So last Monday was the bottom, so far. I've picked up a few stocks at mind blowing prices, like Wendy's at 70% off it's high. Playing with 10% of my portfolio. Don't try this at home. :twisted:
yea, the 18th looked like a bottom.

Cycle
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Cycle » Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:11 pm

Got paycheck today and purchased $2k of vtwax. Didn't look at the price. Hopefully it's lower than the value in 2030, as that's my buy criteria.
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way

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watchnerd
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:16 am

Cycle wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:11 pm
Got paycheck today and purchased $2k of vtwax. Didn't look at the price. Hopefully it's lower than the value in 2030, as that's my buy criteria.
I never look at the price when I buy index funds.

Sometimes I look at the valuation, though.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

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Bluce
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by Bluce » Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:41 pm

From a Larry Swedroe tweet, an article about market timing.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

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abuss368
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Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

Post by abuss368 » Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:42 pm

Buying next week - Total Stock on pay day!
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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