So bottom is probably behind us....right?

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peskypesky
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by peskypesky » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:34 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:32 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:41 pm
As I've written before, more than once, there's no way we can be at the bottom with the amount of denial and delusion that you find even here, on a forum where most people are literate and fairly well-informed.

Just today, the US surged with 10,000 new cases and took third place in the world...and some people think the worst is behind us? :oops:
On the general Coronavirus thread, someone who could do math mentioned that if we continue to follow Italy’s path, which doesn’t seem completely unlikely, that in 16 days, the US will be at 500,000 cases.

Judging by some of the comments on this site, and especially in this thread, there is no way that’s priced into the market right now.
Indeed.

One poster here actually suggested that 10,000 new cases in the USA is actually a drop in the number of cases. :oops:

With this kind of "thinking", the market hasn't priced in reality.

Thesaints
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Thesaints » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:40 am

Problem is there is no way to price it in the market, even if we wanted to. Nobody can tell how this is gonna end at present. That's why the stock (and bonds too) market has been swinging like crazy from one day to another.

Momus
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Momus » Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:46 am

Unemployment rate is going from 3.5% -> 10% to 30% forecasted. God help us all.

Just hope I am not getting laid off and stocks drop 80% to buy on the cheap :dollar :dollar :dollar

rossington
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by rossington » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:31 am

How much is that $125k worth to you?
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.

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birdog
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by birdog » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:45 am

XM16E1 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:50 am
Obviously no one can predict the future but do you guys think we've hit bottom? My portfolio took a huge hit, well into the six figures. I've got 125k in Fidelity and Merril Edge sitting in cash accounts just waiting. Tried grabbing the falling knife once already and got cut. Buy now or wait longer?
Perhaps you should consider hiring a financial advisor to prevent you from continuing to make these mistakes.

tealeaves
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by tealeaves » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:56 am

Buy now or wait la little longer? Doesn't matter too much if you are certain you won't need the money for at least 5 years. If there is even a remote chance that you will, I agree with the suggestion to talk to an adviser.

snowox
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by snowox » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:08 am

If your in an index fund my crystal ball says you will have more downside before we go up BUT if your a stock picker there are alot of quality stocks that imo are still on sale that you could DCA in. If your worried about putting it all in then put 25k in at a time and preferably on dips. The market is most likely up the last two days on the talk of stimulus but historically we get our biggest rallys in Bear markets which dont last as we needs some more time and information to come out like the job report that will be dismal today most likely and getting to the peak in the virus. But there is nothing about this market either that has been typicl. I would put 25k in at a time on dips if index funds if it were me. Nothing wrong with a bit of cash right now.

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mrspock
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by mrspock » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:22 am

tealeaves wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:56 am
Buy now or wait la little longer? Doesn't matter too much if you are certain you won't need the money for at least 5 years. If there is even a remote chance that you will, I agree with the suggestion to talk to an adviser.
The return on capital gets exponentially greater the longer you wait it out. I'd advise staging things, do 1/3 at -30% (1.4:1 return), 1/3 @ -50% (2:1 return) and then 1/3 at -70% if by some miracle we get that low (3.3:1 return).

-50% is very possible IMO, so patience might pay off here vs. pushing now.

keelerjr12
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by keelerjr12 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:32 am

peskypesky wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:34 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:32 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:41 pm
As I've written before, more than once, there's no way we can be at the bottom with the amount of denial and delusion that you find even here, on a forum where most people are literate and fairly well-informed.

Just today, the US surged with 10,000 new cases and took third place in the world...and some people think the worst is behind us? :oops:
On the general Coronavirus thread, someone who could do math mentioned that if we continue to follow Italy’s path, which doesn’t seem completely unlikely, that in 16 days, the US will be at 500,000 cases.

Judging by some of the comments on this site, and especially in this thread, there is no way that’s priced into the market right now.
Indeed.

One poster here actually suggested that 10,000 new cases in the USA is actually a drop in the number of cases. :oops:

With this kind of "thinking", the market hasn't priced in reality.
If that was in reference to my post above, I just want to clear that’s NOT what was said. If you’re referring to a different post, carry on!

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avenger
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by avenger » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:35 am

Nobody knows nothin’.
cheers ... -Mark | "Our life is frittered away with detail. Simplify. Simplify." -Henry David Thoreau | [3 fund portfolio: VTI, VXUS, SV fund (yield 3.01%)]

madbrain
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by madbrain » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:32 am

My crystal ball says it's unlikely that we have hit the bottom. I also have 100% confidence I won't know when we do.

Silverado
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by Silverado » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:49 am

XM16E1 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:50 am
Obviously no one can predict the future but do you guys think we've hit bottom? My portfolio took a huge hit, well into the six figures. I've got 125k in Fidelity and Merril Edge sitting in cash accounts just waiting. Tried grabbing the falling knife once already and got cut. Buy now or wait longer?
If you are going to continue to act like this in the future, I’d say it doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is if you will be a successful market timer, which depends largely on luck. So buy, sell, whatever. Then react in the opposite way. Rinse and repeat. See how it works out.

Now, if you are going to invest for the long term, DCA that cash back in over the next couple of months and go back to living instead of gambling. If you want to really impact your future, go exercise. A healthier body is going to be very valuable regardless of the future market.

We are down over half a million and I can’t wait until the next payday next week so more goes in, and it’s the first paycheck of the month which means $5k goes into VTSAX in taxable! Might turn into $3k by the end of the month, but so what, by the time I click 'sell' on those shares they will likely be worth $10k. Or maybe not. I’m willing to wait and see. And in the meantime, I will be out for a run.

Rudedog
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by Rudedog » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:25 am

I expect March's unemployment numbers will cause market to go lower.

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dbadalam
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by dbadalam » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:47 am

It seems Most people on this thread have more of a bearish outlook. I didn’t tally a poll but it’s just the feeling I get from reading the posts . So I guess it’s debatable whether that’s really the case .

This weeks AAII investors sentiment survey appears to be less pessimistic than most people on this post .

52% Bearish, 33% bullish

What are your opinions on this ? I read that when that Bearish percentage starts to peak we’ve probably hit bottom. Of course the peak is also undefined. So maybe this doesn’t mean anything at all .

dknightd
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by dknightd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:55 am

I hope the bottom is behind us. But I guess there is a 50% chance it is not.
If you value a bird in the hand, pay off the loan. If you are willing to risk getting two birds (or none) from the market, invest the funds.

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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by veggivet » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:09 am

Rudedog wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:25 am
I expect March's unemployment numbers will cause market to go lower.
A bold call...you heard it here first BHs! :wink:
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

ZumZabo
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by ZumZabo » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:18 am

We will see if/when the stimulus package passes the house. Could be a classic case of buy the rumor, sell the fact. If it passes, the market goes down; if it doesn’t pass, (very unlikely) it goes way down. Even the largest most powerful country/economy on the planet is unlikely to be able to turn the tide of a global economic tsunami.
It depends on the depth and duration of work stoppages and business closures. I feel as if new lows (in this down move) are likely.

I also suspect we will see some bargains in real estate as some of the air gets punched out of the recent bubble. Owners of shuttered businesses and out of work people can’t pay mortgages. Once the pipeline fills with delinquencies, the foreclosures and short sales will begin. In full swing by ca July-September is my guess. I hope I will be called out as being wrong about this when it all shakes out. We will recover, we always do. I’ll treat it as an opportunity to gradually buy and rebalance.
Last edited by ZumZabo on Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Stef
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Stef » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:22 am

I hope not, I have a windfall coming in end of May 2020. Please SP500 drop to 2000 by then :mrgreen:

ge1
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by ge1 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:23 am

S&P 500 reported earnings in 2019 were $140, so the P/E ratio at current levels is over 17. And that's before earnings will decrease significantly in 2020 due to the virus, it's anybody's guess how low they will fall.

Does not sound like a bear market bottom to me. As reference in the 2008/2009 recession, the S&P fell to around 8x peak earnings before the crisis. That would put the S&P @ 1,120...

Valueinvestor2
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Valueinvestor2 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 am

For those who think the virus is slowing, it’s not. I am sorry to say this but every major city is going to look like NYC within the next month. Hospitals will be overwhelmed and we will all know friends or family who have been impacted by this virus. This will have major health and economic implications.

Most Americans (I’m not referring to people on this board) can’t think steps ahead. So their linear thought process is I feel fine, I’ll just go about my normal activities. Combine that with a virus that is severely contagious before people get symptoms and the end result is a growing pandemic.

The way I see it there are 3 solutions 1) everyone locks down for a few weeks 2) treatment is developed 3) vaccine is developed

It’s going to get worse before it gets better. This shouldn’t matter for how this group invests. I just can’t not respond to people who think this is over. Be smart and stay safe.

3funder
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by 3funder » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:30 am

Re: hitting bottom, I have no idea. As for buying, it depends on the length of your time horizon and what you're thinking of buying.

Ari
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Ari » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:46 am

Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 am
Combine that with a virus that is severely contagious before people get symptoms and the end result is a growing pandemic.
I've heard this thrown around a lot, but according to my country's version of the CDC, there is an "international consensus" that Covid-19 is spread by people with symptoms. There is a theoretical risk of contagion at intimate contact with someone infected but not yet symptomatic, and there are a few reported cases of this happening. Sounds to me asymptomatic spread is not a big problem. The issue is rather with people having light symptoms, like a cough or runny nose, and not associating it with the virus. Maybe that amounts to the same thing, I just wanted to make the point. Even if asymptomatic people could spread the disease, they don't go around coughing or sneezing, so they're not a big vector for this.

On topic, I wouldn't be surprised if the bottom is behind us, but we could be in for a further fall, of course. My guess would be that we'll have another fall to a bit below the last bottom, like a few percent lower, then a volatile plateau followed by a slow climb, with the market ending the year at around 10% negative. Not acting on that guess, of course, other than keeping up the purchases.
All in, all the time.

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birdog
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by birdog » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 am

BUY BUY BUY! All the time! Get shares, collect dividends. BUY BUY BUY!

My harsh and emotionless IPS tells me to buy every month according to my AA so that's what I do. I'm not always happy it, tho. But I do it. (Actually, I am happy about it. Very happy.)

james22
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by james22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:06 am

watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:53 pm
When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go.
I wouldn't necessarily assume interest in margin and HELOCs mean some believe the "market" is undervalued. It certainly isn't in my case.

panhead
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by panhead » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:08 am

XM16E1 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:50 am
Obviously no one can predict the future but do you guys think we've hit bottom? My portfolio took a huge hit, well into the six figures. I've got 125k in Fidelity and Merril Edge sitting in cash accounts just waiting. Tried grabbing the falling knife once already and got cut. Buy now or wait longer?
1) Yes, No, maybe
2) Yes

Enganerd
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Enganerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 am

Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 am
For those who think the virus is slowing, it’s not. I am sorry to say this but every major city is going to look like NYC within the next month. Hospitals will be overwhelmed and we will all know friends or family who have been impacted by this virus. This will have major health and economic implications.

Most Americans (I’m not referring to people on this board) can’t think steps ahead. So their linear thought process is I feel fine, I’ll just go about my normal activities. Combine that with a virus that is severely contagious before people get symptoms and the end result is a growing pandemic.

The way I see it there are 3 solutions 1) everyone locks down for a few weeks 2) treatment is developed 3) vaccine is developed

It’s going to get worse before it gets better. This shouldn’t matter for how this group invests. I just can’t not respond to people who think this is over. Be smart and stay safe.
I felt this about 10 days ago when American leadership still seemed to be in denial and we were not testing. Since then we have taken things much more seriously and I do not see reason to believe that other than NYC and a few others, many areas of US will look like Milan. Of course we are seeing signs that America may not have the stomach for social distancing even with the evidence right in front of us.

Here is a great dashboard that normalizes numbers per capita. Unfortunately it does not break it down to cities. I think that would be useful, how is NYC compared to Milan. Comparing US to Italy is not apples to apples, and neither is NY state to Italy. But looking at the trends I no longer think most US states will be completely overwhelmed.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visuali ... 2sOEtarhjo

Dave55
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Dave55 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:21 am

dbadalam wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am
I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
No, the bottom is not in the rearview mirror.

Dave

rascott
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by rascott » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:25 am

Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 am
For those who think the virus is slowing, it’s not. I am sorry to say this but every major city is going to look like NYC within the next month. Hospitals will be overwhelmed and we will all know friends or family who have been impacted by this virus. This will have major health and economic implications.

Most Americans (I’m not referring to people on this board) can’t think steps ahead. So their linear thought process is I feel fine, I’ll just go about my normal activities. Combine that with a virus that is severely contagious before people get symptoms and the end result is a growing pandemic.

The way I see it there are 3 solutions 1) everyone locks down for a few weeks 2) treatment is developed 3) vaccine is developed

It’s going to get worse before it gets better. This shouldn’t matter for how this group invests. I just can’t not respond to people who think this is over. Be smart and stay safe.

The country isn't going about their normal activities, however. I've been on lockdown at home for 2 weeks now.... and my state has only a couple hundred confirmed cases. I haven't been within 6 ft of another human..... outside my household family, since then. Same could be said for millions of others.

Most of the nation doesn't live like people do in NYC....as far as population density. Obviously this will spread, but to say every major city will look like NYC isn't accurate.
Last edited by rascott on Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:28 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Peculiar_Investor » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:26 am

dbadalam wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am
I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
Not everyone, because I don't know and don't care. "Making predictions is hard, especially about the future" -- Yogi Berra.

I've been through of number of these market events and long ago learned my risk tolerance. That guided elements of my investment policy statement (IPS), which I've been following as usual. My approach isn't quite Bogle's "Don't do something, stand there." but it is close, don't do something different, stay the course.

Other than tax loss harvesting when the opportunities present themselves, I've just been following my what my IPS says I should do.

As to whether these will turn out to be right or wrong, it is far too early in this bear market to make that judgement. Ask me again in 10 years.
Normal people… believe that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Engineers believe that if it ain’t broke, it doesn’t have enough features yet. – Scott Adams

atdharris
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by atdharris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:35 am

It's way too early to tell. I could be wrong, but I can't see that we have already hit bottom given we still have no idea what kind of hit this will actually have on the economy. I've been buying using 1-2% of my cash on down days but I'm still on 10% back in my taxable account.

tibbitts
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by tibbitts » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:41 am

XM16E1 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:50 am
Obviously no one can predict the future but do you guys think we've hit bottom? My portfolio took a huge hit, well into the six figures. I've got 125k in Fidelity and Merril Edge sitting in cash accounts just waiting. Tried grabbing the falling knife once already and got cut. Buy now or wait longer?
Use an algorithm of your choice to determine when to buy/sell and stick to it. It doesn't make any sense to ask a group who doesn't even claim to know anything.

JLJL
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by JLJL » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:44 am

unclescrooge wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:52 pm
JLJL wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:27 pm
whereskyle wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:23 pm
Until today, I figured we had more to go, but now I'm hearing from people at work, friends, and family that they are interested in buying stocks. That interest in my mind indicates that the market may be turning around. Would I rest my hat on that? Absolutely not, but it does seem meaningful.
I work with a number of people and have friends and family and none of them ever talk about stocks, ever. Maybe I need to get a new opening line.
Maybe you need new friends :mrgreen:
If you met my friends you'd know this to be true, but let's get back to timing this thing! :sharebeer

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sperry8
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by sperry8 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:45 am

Here's the problem. No one, not the news media, not Bogleheads, says we are at bottom. Everyone says worse is to come (at least those that make predictions). When i hear everyone on one side of a trade I get very nervous. Seems to me that may be the "tell" that the bottom is actually in. Although personally I find that very hard to believe. But maybe that is what makes it so?
BH contest results: 2019: #233 of 645 | 18: #150 of 493 | 17: #516 of 647 | 16: #121 of 610 | 15: #18 of 552 | 14: #225 of 503 | 13: #383 of 433 | 12: #366 of 410 | 11: #113 of 369 | 10: #53 of 282

doss
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by doss » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:48 am

Well, looks like the jobless claims did not affect the market. Wow.

CnC
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by CnC » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:52 am

mrspock wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:56 pm
Corsair wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:26 pm
boglehooligan wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:21 pm
As per Warren Buffet's thinking, the Market is "Significantly overvalued"
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

And if you ask Robert Shiller, he would probably tell you the same thing :(
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Thanks for sharing the Buffet indicator :beer

Honestly who is buying at these prices in a bear market? I'm not surprised, however, as I do believe the Fed and Administration will do everything in their power to keep the market up.
I bought 6 figures last Thursday. This is easy money.... keep selling boys and girls, I'm sitting on a 46% gain to even, looking forward to 100% on my next round (-50%). No matter how many times everyone sees the movie, they just can't help but think the ending is different this time. You see, when you buy low.... and HOLD, you win no matter what.

P.S. Robert Shiller is a perma-bear. And CAPE has been indicating over-value for the last 10 years, congrats... you'd still be down (vs. the S&P) if you listened to him.
Wow great profit. Mind calling your next 6 figure purchase or sell ahead of time? I would be interested in seeing how well you do.

triggerfish10
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by triggerfish10 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 am

Well, looks like the jobless claims did not affect the market. Wow.
I was thinking the same thing. Once again, confirmation that I also 'don't know nothin'
"A quiet and modest life brings more joy than a pursuit of success bound with constant unrest" - Albert Einstein

atdharris
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by atdharris » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:04 am

doss wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:48 am
Well, looks like the jobless claims did not affect the market. Wow.
I was surprised by that too. The market expected a bad number, but by all accounts, this number was much worse than we expected. I guess the market is happy about the government taking action to make this blow a bit less than it could be.

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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by dwickenh » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:10 am

Check the market an hour before close, there might be a buying opportunity. I have already re-balanced twice, so no buying for me unless it drops big time. Hope it steadies for a while and begins a recovery, but I'm not betting on that yet.
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:11 am

triggerfish10 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 am
Well, looks like the jobless claims did not affect the market. Wow.
I was thinking the same thing. Once again, confirmation that I also 'don't know nothin'
You might know more than you think you do. Are you surprised by the numbers? No, well then do you think most people were surprised? No, well then it was baked into the numbers.

I’m surprised that the numbers aren’t worse, as I see people all around me filing for unemployment. The US is not impressive in its capability to deal with the pandemic. So, I hope it’s a bottom, but I won’t put it all on red.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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JoeRetire
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by JoeRetire » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:12 am

XM16E1 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:50 am
Obviously no one can predict the future but do you guys think we've hit bottom?
No.
Buy now or wait longer?
You can only go with what you know.
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.

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dbadalam
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by dbadalam » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:15 am

Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 am
For those who think the virus is slowing, it’s not. I am sorry to say this but every major city is going to look like NYC within the next month. Hospitals will be overwhelmed and we will all know friends or family who have been impacted by this virus. This will have major health and economic implications.

Most Americans (I’m not referring to people on this board) can’t think steps ahead. So their linear thought process is I feel fine, I’ll just go about my normal activities. Combine that with a virus that is severely contagious before people get symptoms and the end result is a growing pandemic.

The way I see it there are 3 solutions 1) everyone locks down for a few weeks 2) treatment is developed 3) vaccine is developed

It’s going to get worse before it gets better. This shouldn’t matter for how this group invests. I just can’t not respond to people who think this is over. Be smart and stay safe.
From my perspective, the US doesn't fear the virus. People are going about their normal activities as if nothing is going on. The words "overblown" and "can't shut down the economy" and "cure can't be worse than the disease" get used a lot. Fox news stuff. I'm still shocked by the behavior of people around me. And I live in a blue state.

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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by Call_Me_Op » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:20 am

mrspock wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:22 am
tealeaves wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:56 am
Buy now or wait la little longer? Doesn't matter too much if you are certain you won't need the money for at least 5 years. If there is even a remote chance that you will, I agree with the suggestion to talk to an adviser.
The return on capital gets exponentially greater the longer you wait it out. I'd advise staging things, do 1/3 at -30% (1.4:1 return), 1/3 @ -50% (2:1 return) and then 1/3 at -70% if by some miracle we get that low (3.3:1 return).

-50% is very possible IMO, so patience might pay off here vs. pushing now.
I am surprised you do not take the position of the actual Mr. Spoke who said "My OPINION would be valueless."
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

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Wiggums
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by Wiggums » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:24 am

I have an automated task to buy weekly. Even if 2nd quarter numbers are really bad, that does not guarantee that the stocks will make lower lows going forward. The extreme, massive, irrational selling and short covering COULD be over, even as we have down days due to the news. So I choose to stay in the game.

Once the stimulus package is approved, then what will the market do? How will the markets finish today? I have no idea. I have three family members who are now unemployed. They are not buying stocks, but I am.
Last edited by Wiggums on Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:32 am, edited 3 times in total.

brianH
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by brianH » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:25 am

dbadalam wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:15 am
From my perspective, the US doesn't fear the virus. People are going about their normal activities as if nothing is going on. The words "overblown" and "can't shut down the economy" and "cure can't be worse than the disease" get used a lot. Fox news stuff. I'm still shocked by the behavior of people around me. And I live in a blue state.
Have you considered that there is another possibility you are refusing to see: that this virus, while bad, is not anywhere near as bad as originally predicted.

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kingsnake
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by kingsnake » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:27 am

I'm guessing that we have not hit the bottom. VTI up because of the stimulus today. But the crisis will last several more weeks if not months. It will wear on people. Unemployment will be worse than what came out today. Wisconsin is ordered to shelter at home until April 24, Minnesota issued shelter at home until April 10....Minnesota's will likely get extended when they realize Covid 19 will worsen between now and then....other states who haven't ordered shelter at home will order them....New York, and California will be a mess, possibly Houston and other major Metros....
For every positive test there are 2-3 others they passed it on to....I think the bottom will be somewhere around the Covid -19 peak and we won't peak for a 2-3 more weeks. I don't think one needs to time it perfectly to benefit if one is a long term investor. Be greedy when others are fearful...and I think they will become more fearful in the coming weeks. :moneybag

bugleheadd
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by bugleheadd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:28 am

i would put at least half your lumpo sum.

a 25% discount from peak doesnt present itself often. a chance to buy at 2017 price levels.

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watchnerd
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:32 am

james22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:06 am
watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:53 pm
When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go.
I wouldn't necessarily assume interest in margin and HELOCs mean some believe the "market" is undervalued. It certainly isn't in my case.
I take interest in leverage as people seeing more upside than downside in its use.
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anil686
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by anil686 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:37 am

No - I don’t think so but the “bottom” is probably not more than 30% down from here. Just living through 2008/9 - I would suspect some stabilization in the equity markets and then some issues in four to six months when a lot of the small and large businesses start running into cash crunch issues if economic activity has not picked up to pre-crisis levels. At that point, I would expect the market to price in issues which will drop them again. JMO though....

jhh9327
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by jhh9327 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:41 am

Enganerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:18 am
Valueinvestor2 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:26 am
For those who think the virus is slowing, it’s not. I am sorry to say this but every major city is going to look like NYC within the next month. Hospitals will be overwhelmed and we will all know friends or family who have been impacted by this virus. This will have major health and economic implications.

Most Americans (I’m not referring to people on this board) can’t think steps ahead. So their linear thought process is I feel fine, I’ll just go about my normal activities. Combine that with a virus that is severely contagious before people get symptoms and the end result is a growing pandemic.

The way I see it there are 3 solutions 1) everyone locks down for a few weeks 2) treatment is developed 3) vaccine is developed

It’s going to get worse before it gets better. This shouldn’t matter for how this group invests. I just can’t not respond to people who think this is over. Be smart and stay safe.
I felt this about 10 days ago when American leadership still seemed to be in denial and we were not testing. Since then we have taken things much more seriously and I do not see reason to believe that other than NYC and a few others, many areas of US will look like Milan. Of course we are seeing signs that America may not have the stomach for social distancing even with the evidence right in front of us.

Here is a great dashboard that normalizes numbers per capita. Unfortunately it does not break it down to cities. I think that would be useful, how is NYC compared to Milan. Comparing US to Italy is not apples to apples, and neither is NY state to Italy. But looking at the trends I no longer think most US states will be completely overwhelmed.

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visuali ... 2sOEtarhjo
Stats don't look pretty and, to me, back up Valueinvestor2. Yesterday 5 states had over 500 new cases (NY, NJ, MA, FL, MI). The day before only 3 had over 500 new cases. Before that only 2 (NY and NJ).

Yesterday had 20 states with at least 100 new cases. The day before that was 17. Day before that was 15 I think. I agree with Gov Cuomo. NY is just ahead of the curve where others are going towards.

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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by james22 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:45 am

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:32 am
james22 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:06 am
watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:53 pm
When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go.
I wouldn't necessarily assume interest in margin and HELOCs mean some believe the "market" is undervalued. It certainly isn't in my case.
I take interest in leverage as people seeing more upside than downside in its use.
I see upside in BRK and BAM, downside in the S&P500. Not sure how you could take anything away from my interest in borrowing to invest without knowing that?

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