So bottom is probably behind us....right?

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palanzo
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by palanzo » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:31 pm

dbadalam wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am
I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
Not sure who is a boggle fan.

If you are referring to John Bogle then his last name is Bogle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Bogle

palanzo
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by palanzo » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:32 pm

Novine wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:28 pm
Definitely bearish on the near term prospects. Anyone who wants to talk about the "wisdom of the markets" needs to explain how "the market" was completely oblivious to the oncoming threat of the coronavirus to the US and world economy. All the warning lights were flashing red and yet stocks continued to race upward until they didn't.
Well everything was priced in...correct? :oops:

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:33 pm

tibbitts wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:15 pm
dbadalam wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am
I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
I don't understand why you would ask a question on a site where nobody professes to know anything. I would say no, not everyone tries to guess and speculate.
Probably because at one time or another all of us knew everything--or at least something :wink:

keelerjr12
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by keelerjr12 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:39 pm

Novine wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:28 pm
Definitely bearish on the near term prospects. Anyone who wants to talk about the "wisdom of the markets" needs to explain how "the market" was completely oblivious to the oncoming threat of the coronavirus to the US and world economy. All the warning lights were flashing red and yet stocks continued to race upward until they didn't.
And a perfect example of a market that is not 100% efficient as people claim it to be.

novice111
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by novice111 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:41 pm

here's my stupid prediction that means nothing.

i think the markets will stop going down for a while after today-for maybe 2 months

this is bad news for me because i wanted to TLH but was nervous about doing it since i'm all in ETFS at Fidelity- markets were making such rapid movements-i was sure i would lose money by trying to TLH

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pointyhairedboss
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by pointyhairedboss » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:45 pm

Not going to pretend that I have read every post in this thread, I have read about half, so apologies if I am echoing much of what has already been said...

Ultimately this problem is the result of health issue and not some financial issue (bets on mortgage loans). Market recovery can't happen until the virus is on the way to being cured or contained.

I don't think the US is on the right track to curing or containing the problem. Therefore, I think the markets will continue to suffer, reflecting the toll of the virus.

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hisdudeness
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by hisdudeness » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:10 pm

panhead wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:44 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:39 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:55 am
peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:20 am
I'm not sure how we could have already hit the bottom when the pandemic is just really getting started in several of the biggest economies on the planet.
We easily could have. The market is forward looking. It doesn't always react to what happened. It reacts to what it thinks will happen. It rose record levels yesterday in anticipation of a stimulus plan, not because one occurred. One occurred last night and the market opened a bit down.

If the pandemic turns out to be economically less bad than the market expected, the market will likely increase. Maybe the market expects 30% unemployment and it will actually top out at 25%.
LOL!!!!!!

Magical thinking is a lovely thing.
"Hey...like, man....like.....that's your like...opinion.....man!"

Sorry, couldn't resist, but I will also say, "That rug really tied the room together!"

Edited to add that these comments equally well predict the bottom.... :sharebeer
Far out

panhead
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by panhead » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:25 pm

hisdudeness wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:10 pm
Far out
Hah! with that username I would've known you'd appreciate it.
Care for a white Russian while we watch the end of the world?

keelerjr12
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by keelerjr12 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:44 pm

If the numbers don't climb another 800 cases in the US before the end of the night, it looks like the rate of the rate (2nd order derivative) is slowing. This could mean that in the next couple of days we see the rate of cases reverse.

March2009
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by March2009 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 pm

Smells like a sucker rally. It seems as soon as the market started falling, traders were already talking about when the next bull market will begin. They are still in the denial stage. This market has further to fall as traders (and "investors") lose their nerve. This is my guess but doesn't matter because I asset allocate.

In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners. - J.P. Morgan
In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners. - J.P. Morgan

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birdog
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by birdog » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:49 pm

Call_Me_Op wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:46 pm
My suggestion would be to tally-up the opinions and then assume the opposite is true.
History seems to prove that the most accurate.

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mister_sparkle
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by mister_sparkle » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:50 pm

We're only back to late 2018 price levels. The pandemic numbers are going to become very alarming over the next week or two. Unemployment figures are going to be brutal, and the run on the hospital systems is going to be very bad. And large swaths of the country are not adopting very stringent stay-at-home policies, so the virus is going to continue to find a foothold.

My primary worry is that the strain on the medical system will include doctors and nurses becoming infected, worsening things even farther. I just don't believe we're anywhere near the bottom.

MindBogler
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by MindBogler » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:50 pm

March2009 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 pm
Smells like a sucker rally. It seems as soon as the market started falling, traders were already talking about when the next bull market will begin. They are still in the denial stage. This market has further to fall as traders (and "investors") lose their nerve. This is my guess but doesn't matter because I asset allocate.

In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners. - J.P. Morgan
I don't claim to know anything. I just want to say that your name is quite ironic given the current environment and your comments.

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watchnerd
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:53 pm

When I'm still seeing new questions about using margins and HELOCs, we still have a long way to go.
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flyingaway
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by flyingaway » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:01 pm

I think the worst is yet to come.
Just one week into the so-called "work from home", my wife's multi-billion dollar IT company just informed its employees that their salaries will be reduced by as much as 40%.
First is to keep your life, second is to keep your job, ..., find the stock bottom.

Invest4Life2882
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Invest4Life2882 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:02 pm

How much confidence can really be put into the fact that the market has everything already priced in? I don’t know how anyone could assume that. If that were true then the assumption would be that with any news the market already knows and the market then only goes up??

Plus there are billions of dollars in the market being self managed by people who don’t even follow the market news?

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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by abuss368 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:02 pm

Dave55 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:32 pm
mrspock wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:12 pm
lukestuckenhymer wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm
Wishful, deluded thinking. Trump is telling us we'll go back to normal in 2 weeks, public health officials saying 18 months. I know who I'm believing. I'm not betting that we've seen the bottom.
The only deluded thinking going on here is that this virus is going to cripple the US economy for 5 or 10 years -- pure unadulterated fantasy. At most I'd say it's 3 years, a more likely scenario is half the losses are recouped by EOY 2020, and the last half in 2021. People are also for some reason I cannot understand, thinking they need to be all in, or all out. There's a range of choices in between, from strict re-balancing bands, to judgement call AA changes where you buy low and hold at various levels (-30%, -50%, -70%). In the latter scenario you make 1.4:1, 2:1 or 3.3:1 on your money, good luck getting that return in this time frame any time in the next 10 or 20 years by simply index investing.

Public health officials are not economists, nor are they politicians, or right 100% of the time. Furthermore, COVID-19 testing regimes IMO, are a complete embarrassment to the branch of Mathematics known as "Statistics" -- no random sampling, no consistency, reporting numerators without denominators. They are clearly messaging "worse case" outcomes to get people to do the right thing (self isolation), as one might in their position, this means that it's pretty likely this turns out a lot less bad than anyone might think if they are listening to these officials. It turns out, what makes for good public health policy (scaring people into doing the right thing), is a recipe for disaster for anxiety prone investors.
Mr Spock, you forgot to begin with: "Logic Dictates"......

Otherwise excellent post.

Dave
Agree! :sharebeer
John C. Bogle: "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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watchnerd
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 pm

Invest4Life2882 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:02 pm
How much confidence can really be put into the fact that the market has everything already priced in?
I'm not sure where you're getting this notion that everything is already priced in.

EMH:

1. Obviously doesn't apply to new info
2. Doesn't predict that the "pricing in" criteria that buyers and sellers use will agree with each other
3. That the price won't move when new info contradicts what people expected it to be
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hisdudeness
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by hisdudeness » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:23 pm

panhead wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:25 pm
hisdudeness wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:10 pm
Far out
Hah! with that username I would've known you'd appreciate it.
Care for a white Russian while we watch the end of the world?
:sharebeer

lessismore22
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by lessismore22 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:31 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 pm
Invest4Life2882 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:02 pm
How much confidence can really be put into the fact that the market has everything already priced in?
I'm not sure where you're getting this notion that everything is already priced in.

EMH:

1. Obviously doesn't apply to new info
2. Doesn't predict that the "pricing in" criteria that buyers and sellers use will agree with each other
3. That the price won't move when new info contradicts what people expected it to be
Time and time again I've seen people argue that the market has everything priced in. Every possible scenario that could move the market is met with, 'it's already priced in.' Really?

keelerjr12
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by keelerjr12 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:34 pm

lessismore22 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:31 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 pm
Invest4Life2882 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:02 pm
How much confidence can really be put into the fact that the market has everything already priced in?
I'm not sure where you're getting this notion that everything is already priced in.

EMH:

1. Obviously doesn't apply to new info
2. Doesn't predict that the "pricing in" criteria that buyers and sellers use will agree with each other
3. That the price won't move when new info contradicts what people expected it to be
Time and time again I've seen people argue that the market has everything priced in. Every possible scenario that could move the market is met with, 'it's already priced in.' Really?
Exactly. Otherwise, bubbles wouldn’t happen.

March2009
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by March2009 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:38 pm

MindBogler wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:50 pm
March2009 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 pm
Smells like a sucker rally. It seems as soon as the market started falling, traders were already talking about when the next bull market will begin. They are still in the denial stage. This market has further to fall as traders (and "investors") lose their nerve. This is my guess but doesn't matter because I asset allocate.

In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners. - J.P. Morgan
I don't claim to know anything. I just want to say that your name is quite ironic given the current environment and your comments.
Thanks for noticing. When I held my allocations in March 2009 (and rebalanced), I knew I was a true believer. Also I remember arguing with "everyone" at that time that they shouldn't abandon stocks; I was definitely the minority. There was a massive amount of fear then. I don't sense much fear at the moment; that is why I say I smell a sucker rally. Again, I asset allocate so I'm not changing anything based on my guess.
In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners. - J.P. Morgan

Ocean77
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Ocean77 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:38 pm

The market was down about 35% I think. After the bounce this week, it went to about 25% below the peak. Maybe there is a bit more upside: If it goes up to 17% below the peak, then it would have retraced half its loss. Which is quite typical for such a dead cat bounce. After that, well, watch out below.

peskypesky
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by peskypesky » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:41 pm

As I've written before, more than once, there's no way we can be at the bottom with the amount of denial and delusion that you find even here, on a forum where most people are literate and fairly well-informed.

Just today, the US surged with 10,000 new cases and took third place in the world...and some people think the worst is behind us? :oops:

CoastalWinds
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by CoastalWinds » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:22 pm

Put me in the camp that thinks the worst is still to come.

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firebirdparts
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by firebirdparts » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 pm

lessismore22 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:31 pm

Time and time again I've seen people argue that the market has everything priced in. Every possible scenario that could move the market is met with, 'it's already priced in.' Really?
I haven't been on this board very long, but at least you can say when this happens it's getting back to normal.
A fool and your money are soon partners

DonIce
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by DonIce » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:21 pm

I tend to agree that the bottom is yet to come, but some of the posts above imply that a bear market can't end until there is "capitulation" or "panic" or all the "weak hands" are flushed out. Well, not every bear is equally deep and severe. Just because the 2000 and 2008 bears were ~50% or more drops, doesn't mean they all have to be. There were plenty of bears in 30-40% range, and presumably fewer people panic sold at -30% than at -50%.

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eye.surgeon
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by eye.surgeon » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:27 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:41 pm
As I've written before, more than once, there's no way we can be at the bottom with the amount of denial and delusion that you find even here, on a forum where most people are literate and fairly well-informed.

Just today, the US surged with 10,000 new cases and took third place in the world...and some people think the worst is behind us? :oops:
The number of cases relative to the increased number of tests performed actually indicated a stable amount of cases or possibly even a drop. Remember that new cases reported is only meaningful when we have reached maximum testing, otherwise you are just finding more carriers because you're testing more.
"I would rather be certain of a good return than hopeful of a great one" | Warren Buffett

quantAndHold
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by quantAndHold » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:32 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:41 pm
As I've written before, more than once, there's no way we can be at the bottom with the amount of denial and delusion that you find even here, on a forum where most people are literate and fairly well-informed.

Just today, the US surged with 10,000 new cases and took third place in the world...and some people think the worst is behind us? :oops:
On the general Coronavirus thread, someone who could do math mentioned that if we continue to follow Italy’s path, which doesn’t seem completely unlikely, that in 16 days, the US will be at 500,000 cases.

Judging by some of the comments on this site, and especially in this thread, there is no way that’s priced into the market right now.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

squirm
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:33 pm

dbadalam wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:07 am
I’m learning from the FIRE club and boggle fans that nobody really knows if we hit bottom already. But everyone tries to guess and speculate. So are you thinking the bottom is probably in the review mirror? Or are you thinking we really have not priced in more bad news to come?
Here's something to think about. Bottoms are usually not made in this type of fashion. The price action is much more disciplined and spaced out. IMO this is just a bear market rally.

jello_nailer
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by jello_nailer » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:35 pm

[/quote]

NO.
Let that 50/50 come to you.
Convert bonds to stock to keep the 50/50
[/quote]

Solid. +1^

squirm
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:36 pm

eye.surgeon wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:27 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:41 pm
As I've written before, more than once, there's no way we can be at the bottom with the amount of denial and delusion that you find even here, on a forum where most people are literate and fairly well-informed.

Just today, the US surged with 10,000 new cases and took third place in the world...and some people think the worst is behind us? :oops:
The number of cases relative to the increased number of tests performed actually indicated a stable amount of cases or possibly even a drop. Remember that new cases reported is only meaningful when we have reached maximum testing, otherwise you are just finding more carriers because you're testing more.
I was thinking the same thing.

RoAG
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by RoAG » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:44 pm

I dont think we hit bottom yet, think we have least another month of bad news keeping market down.
In the meantime, I'm buying here and there when Dow under 18500, bigger positions under 17k and all in if it goes under 15k

squirm
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:45 pm

Jim180 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:54 am
This is just a counter-trend rally within the bear market. Lot's of unknowns that can make the market head South again such as worse than expected economic data, maybe the economy doesn't restart by Easter and finally the virus could get worse in other areas besides NY.
Agree. Lots of damage has taken place.

squirm
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:48 pm

jebmke wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:11 am
At the rate the FED is expanding its asset purchases, I don't think we will see the bottom until they start buying Bitcoin. I have no idea where the bottom is but a Dow below 10,000 is not an unreasonable scenario.
We can get our Dow 10,000 hats out again.

The fed will start buying equities at some point. They moving down their purchases further down the gutter.

smectym
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by smectym » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:49 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:38 am
I would be shocked if we've hit the bottom. But I would not be shocked to end up being wrong in the end. But I'm planning and expecting that the bottom will be much lower.
The most bullish thing I’ve seen yet is all the bearish sentiment on this forum—not that I disagree, but a contrarian might argue that it’s a bullish sign.

I’ll point out one wild card here: the Fed and other central banks are still trying to play King Canute. The Fed under Powell has unleashed a once inconceivable, hitherto unprecedented series of emergency stimulus measures, including massive direct buys of corporate bonds and even bond ETF’s.

It’s sort of an article of faith that eventually the Fed must fail; but let’s face it, the Fed has done some amazing things. I’ll hazard that you and I owe more to the Fed than our own acumen for the plump, self-satisfied gains we’ve logged in our portfolios over the past decade.

Maybe the Fed has one more starring role to play, one more hit number to sing? If the Fed plus the fiscal stimulus package of $2 trillion doesn’t spark at least a sustained short term rally in the markets I would be a little surprised. That doesn’t mean I disagree with the many posters above who don’t think we’ve hit bottom: but perhaps this bounce we’re seeing now may have a bit more room to run.

squirm
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:55 pm

smectym wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:49 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:38 am
I would be shocked if we've hit the bottom. But I would not be shocked to end up being wrong in the end. But I'm planning and expecting that the bottom will be much lower.
The most bullish thing I’ve seen yet is all the bearish sentiment on this forum—not that I disagree, but a contrarian might argue that it’s a bullish sign.



Maybe the Fed has one more starring role to play, one more hit number to sing? If the Fed plus the fiscal stimulus package of $2 trillion doesn’t spark at least a sustained short term rally in the markets I would be a little surprised. That doesn’t mean I disagree with the many posters above who don’t think we’ve hit bottom: but perhaps this bounce we’re seeing now may have a bit more room to run.
The bull/bear ratio is 0.72

The fed was out of ammo, that's why they started all their purchases just like all the other central banks are doing. Maybe they will start buying equity indexes next and after that equity ETF's and then individual equity. I'm waiting for them to purchase F and GM debt. At which point, you could argue, why even have a market at all.

I had put the bear market rally run to 2500-2700.

fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by fatcoffeedrinker » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:02 am

Two thoughts:

First, I think it is very ironic that on a site that adheres to index investing and "stay the course" mentality, so many posters on this thread have an opinion, and often a very strong opinion, as to whether the market has or has not "priced in" all the news. So much for efficient market hypotheses.

Second, given that investors often do worse than the market when they market time, and given that the vast majority of posters on this thread think that we are still far from a bottom, I'm taking that as a contrarian indicator and calling a bottom this past Monday. Only time will tell.

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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by Noobvestor » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:04 am

mister_sparkle wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:50 pm
We're only back to late 2018 price levels. The pandemic numbers are going to become very alarming over the next week or two. Unemployment figures are going to be brutal, and the run on the hospital systems is going to be very bad. And large swaths of the country are not adopting very stringent stay-at-home policies, so the virus is going to continue to find a foothold.

My primary worry is that the strain on the medical system will include doctors and nurses becoming infected, worsening things even farther. I just don't believe we're anywhere near the bottom.
International stocks are back closer to where they were a decade ago (!!!). Focusing on a single national market that broke away from the pack over the last few years on a solo bull run misses the bigger picture of the global market, which is down substantially. /2 cents
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

smectym
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by smectym » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:05 am

squirm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:55 pm
smectym wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:49 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:38 am
I would be shocked if we've hit the bottom. But I would not be shocked to end up being wrong in the end. But I'm planning and expecting that the bottom will be much lower.
The most bullish thing I’ve seen yet is all the bearish sentiment on this forum—not that I disagree, but a contrarian might argue that it’s a bullish sign.



Maybe the Fed has one more starring role to play, one more hit number to sing? If the Fed plus the fiscal stimulus package of $2 trillion doesn’t spark at least a sustained short term rally in the markets I would be a little surprised. That doesn’t mean I disagree with the many posters above who don’t think we’ve hit bottom: but perhaps this bounce we’re seeing now may have a bit more room to run.
The bull/bear ratio is 0.72

The fed was out of ammo, that's why they started all their purchases just like all the other central banks are doing. Maybe they will start buying equity indexes next and after that equity ETF's and then individual equity. I'm waiting for them to purchase F and GM debt. At which point, you could argue, why even have a market at all.

I had put the bear market rally run to 2500-2700.

Squirm, thanks for the ratio, quite interesting, and your bear market rally number looks plausible

mediahound
Posts: 720
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:43 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by mediahound » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:18 am

I personally cannot really think of the bottom being behind us until which time a vaccine comes out.

tesuzuki2002
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2015 12:40 pm

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by tesuzuki2002 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:20 am

We are dropping like a rock with the realization of the looking recession sets in... keep holding your cash!!!

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:22 am

squirm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:55 pm
smectym wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:49 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:38 am
I would be shocked if we've hit the bottom. But I would not be shocked to end up being wrong in the end. But I'm planning and expecting that the bottom will be much lower.
The most bullish thing I’ve seen yet is all the bearish sentiment on this forum—not that I disagree, but a contrarian might argue that it’s a bullish sign.



Maybe the Fed has one more starring role to play, one more hit number to sing? If the Fed plus the fiscal stimulus package of $2 trillion doesn’t spark at least a sustained short term rally in the markets I would be a little surprised. That doesn’t mean I disagree with the many posters above who don’t think we’ve hit bottom: but perhaps this bounce we’re seeing now may have a bit more room to run.
The bull/bear ratio is 0.72

The fed was out of ammo, that's why they started all their purchases just like all the other central banks are doing. Maybe they will start buying equity indexes next and after that equity ETF's and then individual equity. I'm waiting for them to purchase F and GM debt. At which point, you could argue, why even have a market at all.

I had put the bear market rally run to 2500-2700.
The Treasury issued $17B in debt to GM and Chrysler in 2008, seems to me like we’ve had a reasonable “market” since then.

3504PIR
Posts: 939
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by 3504PIR » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:30 am

columbia wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:28 am
That would be a poor assumption.
+1.

I have no idea what will happen, but I know we are not anywhere near clear from the crisis unless it somehow goes away with the warmer weather. The last two days mean nothing other than the government has little left to throw at this. Hunker down. Here is a minor list of bad news yet to come: GDP report(s), unemployment reports, earnings statements, debt defaults, mortgage defaults, inflation, homelessness, bankruptcies, and on and on mingled with the second and third and even fourth level effects from that short list. We haven’t even turned the corner on turning the corner yet.

And if you have international exposure?
Last edited by 3504PIR on Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

bog007
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:27 am

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by bog007 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:36 am

Dead cat bounce. I'd be surprised if we get above 2800 spx anytime soon. 1800 spx likely target

3504PIR
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Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by 3504PIR » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:37 am

bog007 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:36 am
Dead cat bounce. I'd be surprised if we get above 2800 spx anytime soon. 1800 spx likely target
1700 is the ugly spot, and I am not holding my breath.

XM16E1
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2019 9:34 pm

Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by XM16E1 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:50 am

Obviously no one can predict the future but do you guys think we've hit bottom? My portfolio took a huge hit, well into the six figures. I've got 125k in Fidelity and Merril Edge sitting in cash accounts just waiting. Tried grabbing the falling knife once already and got cut. Buy now or wait longer?

Ocean77
Posts: 173
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Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by Ocean77 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:00 am

We already have this thread: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=309438

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watchnerd
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Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 am

lessismore22 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:31 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 pm
Invest4Life2882 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:02 pm
How much confidence can really be put into the fact that the market has everything already priced in?
I'm not sure where you're getting this notion that everything is already priced in.

EMH:

1. Obviously doesn't apply to new info
2. Doesn't predict that the "pricing in" criteria that buyers and sellers use will agree with each other
3. That the price won't move when new info contradicts what people expected it to be
Time and time again I've seen people argue that the market has everything priced in. Every possible scenario that could move the market is met with, 'it's already priced in.' Really?
That's just nuts.

Even 'hard EMH' people don't think that.

That would be pure voodoo.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

shelanman
Posts: 532
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:35 pm

Re: Have we hit bottom? Time to buy?

Post by shelanman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:21 am

Naw, probably not yet.

Most folks I talk to are sure that good times will come again someday -- probably soon.

They are right, but we aren't at the bottom until everybody at least wonders whether there is a bottom; until folks seriously start to believe that the good times might really be gone forever.

Only then will everyone who ever would sell have sold.

Besides, most folks still seem to think that 1-2 more weeks of lockdown will end the virus -- and, as China has shown, that isn't even close to correct. That means a lot of folks are going to be surprised in 4-6 weeks to find that there is still no government plan for them to be allowed to return to life anytime soon.

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