U.S. stocks in free fall

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dukeblue219
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:52 pm

RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:40 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:32 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:17 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:12 am
2500-2700 on spx for the bear market rally.

Hey, negative yields in the US...Yoohooo, told you the party continues.
I am going to short big @ 2'550.
We touched 2549.20 today. Did you pull the trigger?
Yes @ 2'552. Sold VTI and VIOV (30% of portfolio) and bought SPXU.
Still a few minutes to go, but nicely played / nice luck!

RayKeynes
Posts: 148
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RayKeynes » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:57 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:32 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:35 pm
H-Town wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:52 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:40 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:32 pm


We touched 2549.20 today. Did you pull the trigger?
Yes @ 2'552. Sold VTI and VIOV (30% of portfolio) and bought SPXU.
Pop corn ready. I'm kicking it back and enjoy the show. Here goes SPXU.
I would call it a perfect short... :sharebeer
OP how long will you hold this position and do you consider taxes when you sell?
I am from Switzerland - there are no taxes on my position. I consider having the short position until 2'100 points.

Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

What the heck happened in the last 15 minutes? :shock:

Hyperchicken
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

The Bear strikes back!

Were there any distinctive negative news coming in, or is this one of those market moves that are without any obvious reason?

RayKeynes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RayKeynes » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:00 pm

I told you guys - perfect short @ 2'552

Sold 30% of my Investments in VIOV and VTI and went short with 10% of portfolio value.

Thats how it works guys. No way this market is at fair value currently. Down to 2'000!

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:01 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:52 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:40 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:32 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:17 pm
squirm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:12 am
2500-2700 on spx for the bear market rally.

Hey, negative yields in the US...Yoohooo, told you the party continues.
I am going to short big @ 2'550.
We touched 2549.20 today. Did you pull the trigger?
Yes @ 2'552. Sold VTI and VIOV (30% of portfolio) and bought SPXU.
Still a few minutes to go, but nicely played / nice luck!
Well played sir, well played. I thought about it, but given my track record with getting the time part right, I am still doing nothing.

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:02 pm

Triple digit golfer wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
What the heck happened in the last 15 minutes? :shock:
Short squeezers squeezed all the juice out.

Hyperchicken
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hyperchicken » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:02 pm

Holy moly well played, @RayKeynes.

Still not a bad day for the market overall.

Now back to watching the futures. :P

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:05 pm

Looks like that bear market rally petered out.
Now we await and see if that 2400 holds by end of the week. Very important for the bulls for that to hold for them.

dukeblue219
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:05 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:02 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
What the heck happened in the last 15 minutes? :shock:
Short squeezers squeezed all the juice out.
That and new concerns about stimulus.

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:06 pm

Fed going nuts buying LQD.

If equities continue to tank, maybe fed will purchase.

protagonist
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by protagonist » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:09 pm

Random Poster wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:53 pm
protagonist wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:38 pm
Random Poster wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:21 pm
This sounds great and all, but what "safe" and "secure" investment do you suggest "that . . .will probably keep up with inflation for the rest of your life"?
High yield CDs....at least ones that are either short enough or have generous enough EWPs....have been working for me so far. I have held several over the past decade or so, representing a large portion of my portfolio, and every one has beat inflation. No guarantees, but if you pick them wisely I doubt you would lose much to inflation if anything.
I-bonds....to the greatest extent possible. They are the most reliable.
Others have used short term bond funds....I don't know how that has worked out for them.
In a different environment I would say TIPS.
Others may have more ideas.
Thanks.

I'm honestly surprised that (i) one can find high yield CDs these days; and (ii) they would keep up with inflation for the rest of one's life (particularly since, I would think, as interest rates trend lower the availability of such CDs would dry up and if inflation picks up, being locked into a CD might be problematic), but I guess those are a possibility.

I've never used I-bonds but perhaps should look into them a bit.
Depending on where you live there are several CDs in the 2-3 year maturity range still available at 2.5-3%/year.
Depending on inflation, your tax status, and whether they are for taxable or tax-deferred accounts, I think they provide an excellent chance for many people to keep up with inflation. Better than most very low risk investments anyway. https://www.depositaccounts.com/cd/3-year-cd-rates.html

That may not seem like much but I wouldn't expect much inflation for awhile. 5 year issues don't pay enough of a premium IMHO to buy nowadays.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:11 pm

Bluce wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:26 pm
Stinky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:56 pm
Nobody’s mentioned that futures are UP about 4%.

I think that today’s close was the bottom. 2237 on the S&P. You heard it here first.
Yer a brave man, ol' Stinky! :beer

I took a screen shot of your post and saved it. It may come in handy later.

On a completely unrelated note, do you happen to like crow sandwiches? :confused
Well, we’ve had two up days since the 2237 close on S&P. Now up 10+% from that close.

I know that we’re just one REALLY Bad Day away from closing below 2237. Or a couple of ordinary bad days. But hope springs eternal that we’ve seen the bottom.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:34 pm

RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:57 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:32 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:35 pm
H-Town wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:52 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:40 pm


Yes @ 2'552. Sold VTI and VIOV (30% of portfolio) and bought SPXU.
Pop corn ready. I'm kicking it back and enjoy the show. Here goes SPXU.
I would call it a perfect short... :sharebeer
OP how long will you hold this position and do you consider taxes when you sell?
I am from Switzerland - there are no taxes on my position. I consider having the short position until 2'100 points.
I admire you for calling your shots. How do you buy Vanguard funds and what is the load? SPXU is for day traders, holding the fund after close exposes one to many and varied risks.

The prospectus for SPXU says;
"Daily rebalancing and the compounding of each day’s return
over time means that the return of the Fund for a period longer than a single day will be the
result of each day’s returns compounded over the period, which will very likely differ in amount,
and possibly even direction, from three times the inverse (-3x) of the return of the Index for
the same period.

The Fund will lose money if the Index’s performance is flat over time, and
the Fund can lose money regardless of the performance of the Index, as a result of daily
rebalancing, the Index’s volatility, compounding of each day’s return and other
factors. See “Principal Risks” below."

It then lists 19 risks that have nothing to do with the value of the S&P 500.
Poker seems like a safer game to play. I can't wish you luck as I'm always long VOO.

teerup
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by teerup » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:36 pm

RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:00 pm
I told you guys - perfect short @ 2'552

Sold 30% of my Investments in VIOV and VTI and went short with 10% of portfolio value.

Thats how it works guys. No way this market is at fair value currently. Down to 2'000!
Would you mind briefly explaining how this works in more detail? I'm not well versed on short selling. Thanks in advance.

peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:36 pm

Stinky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:11 pm
Bluce wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:26 pm
Stinky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:56 pm
Nobody’s mentioned that futures are UP about 4%.

I think that today’s close was the bottom. 2237 on the S&P. You heard it here first.
Yer a brave man, ol' Stinky! :beer

I took a screen shot of your post and saved it. It may come in handy later.

On a completely unrelated note, do you happen to like crow sandwiches? :confused
Well, we’ve had two up days since the 2237 close on S&P. Now up 10+% from that close.

I know that we’re just one REALLY Bad Day away from closing below 2237. Or a couple of ordinary bad days. But hope springs eternal that we’ve seen the bottom.
That's like a man standing on the railroad tracks in front of an on-rushing train, hoping the train veers off the tracks. Could happen. Lol.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:43 pm

teerup wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:36 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:00 pm
I told you guys - perfect short @ 2'552

Sold 30% of my Investments in VIOV and VTI and went short with 10% of portfolio value.

Thats how it works guys. No way this market is at fair value currently. Down to 2'000!
Would you mind briefly explaining how this works in more detail? I'm not well versed on short selling. Thanks in advance.
That fund uses many esoteric ways to short the S&P 500, things a retail investor can't do. The way a retail investor shorts a stock is they borrow the stock and sell it hoping it goes down, they then buy it back and keep the profit except for the fees and other rakes.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:44 pm

teerup wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:36 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:00 pm
I told you guys - perfect short @ 2'552

Sold 30% of my Investments in VIOV and VTI and went short with 10% of portfolio value.

Thats how it works guys. No way this market is at fair value currently. Down to 2'000!
Would you mind briefly explaining how this works in more detail? I'm not well versed on short selling. Thanks in advance.
In this case they didn't directly short the market, but invested in SPXU which tracks 3x the inverse of the S&P500 daily. If the S&P500 goes up 3%, SPXU will go down 9%.

In a direct short you would borrow shares of VTI with a promise to give them back, and then immediately selling them at current price ($124.22). If VTI goes down to $100 you can buy new shares for $100, give them back to the person you borrowed them from,and you've profited $24.22. If VTI shoots to the moon, eventually you have to cave, buy them for $124.22, return them, and accept the loss. You also will pay interest to borrow the shares. This is why it isn't always prudent to short an highly valued stock with a lot of short interest, as you need to profit enough to offset the significant interest as well.

Thesaints
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Thesaints » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:50 pm

When the market goes up 10 years in a row everybody is 3x leverage. When it plunges down everybody already sold and went short....

teerup
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by teerup » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:53 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:44 pm
teerup wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:36 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:00 pm
I told you guys - perfect short @ 2'552

Sold 30% of my Investments in VIOV and VTI and went short with 10% of portfolio value.

Thats how it works guys. No way this market is at fair value currently. Down to 2'000!
Would you mind briefly explaining how this works in more detail? I'm not well versed on short selling. Thanks in advance.
In this case they didn't directly short the market, but invested in SPXU which tracks 3x the inverse of the S&P500 daily. If the S&P500 goes up 3%, SPXU will go down 9%.

In a direct short you would borrow shares of VTI with a promise to give them back, and then immediately selling them at current price ($124.22). If VTI goes down to $100 you can buy new shares for $100, give them back to the person you borrowed them from,and you've profited $24.22. If VTI shoots to the moon, eventually you have to cave, buy them for $124.22, return them, and accept the loss. You also will pay interest to borrow the shares. This is why it isn't always prudent to short an highly valued stock with a lot of short interest, as you need to profit enough to offset the significant interest as well.
Damn, that's way above my pay grade! But congrats RayKeynes if it worked for you!

RayKeynes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RayKeynes » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:58 pm

teerup wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:36 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:00 pm
I told you guys - perfect short @ 2'552

Sold 30% of my Investments in VIOV and VTI and went short with 10% of portfolio value.

Thats how it works guys. No way this market is at fair value currently. Down to 2'000!
Would you mind briefly explaining how this works in more detail? I'm not well versed on short selling. Thanks in advance.
Short selling is very dangerous and I would not advise anyone to do so. Ive not shorted directly, Ive invested in SPXU that tracks 3 times the inverse Return of the SP500.

The Fund is an excellent Option in my opinion to "Hedge" your Long Position for further Market downfall. I do not use it for profit. Currently and since the beginning of the crash, i have an annullized total Return of 4%.

This is mainly because Ive Sold my whole Position in Januar 2020 and did not buy until 2300. I then invested 30% of my portfolio value and hedged it with spxu. Every time the Market went down Ive Sold SPXU and bought more VTI.

The buying and selling was mainly performed using technicals and behavioral finance.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:04 pm

RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:58 pm
teerup wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:36 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:00 pm
I told you guys - perfect short @ 2'552

Sold 30% of my Investments in VIOV and VTI and went short with 10% of portfolio value.

Thats how it works guys. No way this market is at fair value currently. Down to 2'000!
Would you mind briefly explaining how this works in more detail? I'm not well versed on short selling. Thanks in advance.
Short selling is very dangerous and I would not advise anyone to do so. Ive not shorted directly, Ive invested in SPXU that tracks 3 times the inverse Return of the SP500.
Just so novices reading all of this are aware, when you own a stock outright (i.e. long position), the worst thing that can happen is you lose all of your investment but no more. With short selling, there is no upper limit to your losses. For that reason and others, investors who want to do this are advised to used an inverse ETF instead, where your losses are limited to your investment.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

APX32
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by APX32 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:11 pm

The fade at the end was not exactly good, and with the weekend approaching we will see how Thu/Fri play out. And VIX being up on a day when the markets went up for the second day in a row is concerning, we are far from being out of the woods.

I’m following a similar approach to RayKeynes as far as “gambling” in this market. It will work until things settle down and volatility goes lower as well.

SQQQ and SPXU for the short side, TQQQ and UPRO for the recovery days.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:13 pm

Bluce wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:42 am
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:55 pm
Bluce wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:47 pm
As I recall, GLD was supposed to track the price of gold . . . ?
Sure, but it ain't free. Someone has to pay for the guards with guns at the vault. :)

A quick look shows an annual fee of 0.40% which I guess isn't too bad.

It may been higher in the past when I owned it... I can't find historical fees, but I do see older articles talking about GLD lowering its fees due to competition.
Well I assumed everybody here knew that funds have expenses,* even index and ETFs.
Right, but gold doesn't pay a dividend, and doesn't have any native growth potential. It's not producing anything.

If the price isn't moving upwards, the fees are a steady loss year after year. I think the fees were higher in the past, and it was noticeable that one was losing money even when the price of gold wasn't moving much.

Maybe there are some hidden transaction fees too.. I don't know...
The J stands for Jay

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:50 pm
When the market goes up 10 years in a row everybody is 3x leverage. When it plunges down everybody already sold and went short....
I have many more shares of VOO than I did a month ago. I consider that being longer than before the interesting times. :greedy
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:04 pm
Just so novices reading all of this are aware, when you own a stock outright (i.e. long position), the worst thing that can happen is you lose all of your investment but no more.
VOO can't go to zero, stock holders can sell the telephone poles Verizon owned to get some money back.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:32 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm
VOO can't go to zero, stock holders can sell the telephone poles Verizon owned to get some money back.
Did Enron's shareholders get anything meaningful back?

There may be nothing left at all by the time that shareholders step up with their hand held out.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:38 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm
VOO can't go to zero, stock holders can sell the telephone poles Verizon owned to get some money back.
Did Enron's shareholders get anything meaningful back?

There may be nothing left at all by the time that shareholders step up with their hand held out.
One of the best documentaries I watch concerned Enron and was entitled "The Smartest Guys in the Room".
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:38 pm

In fact I think Enron stock certificates used to be available on eBay!
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:44 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm
VOO can't go to zero, stock holders can sell the telephone poles Verizon owned to get some money back.
Did Enron's shareholders get anything meaningful back?

There may be nothing left at all by the time that shareholders step up with their hand held out.
With VOO all 500 of the biggest US companies would have to go to zero. If that happens we will be living in the dark as hunter gathers.
Enron was worth $21.7 billion when it went bankrupt, all that went to bond holders though. There have been many regulatory changed because of Enron so the likelihood of VOO going bankrupt is as close to zero as one can get.
abuss368 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:38 pm
In fact I think Enron stock certificates used to be available on eBay!
A stock holder can't even do that today; no more paper. :(
I had paper shares of Bellatlantic at one time, they are difficult to sell when they are not held by a broker.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:03 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:44 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm
VOO can't go to zero, stock holders can sell the telephone poles Verizon owned to get some money back.
Did Enron's shareholders get anything meaningful back?

There may be nothing left at all by the time that shareholders step up with their hand held out.
With VOO all 500 of the biggest US companies would have to go to zero. If that happens we will be living in the dark as hunter gathers.
Enron was worth $21.7 billion when it went bankrupt, all that went to bond holders though. There have been many regulatory changed because of Enron so the likelihood of VOO going bankrupt is as close to zero as one can get.
Yes, I agree. My point was that losses in a long position are limited to one's investment, whereas that is not true of short positions.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:01 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:52 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:40 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:32 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:17 pm


I am going to short big @ 2'550.
We touched 2549.20 today. Did you pull the trigger?
Yes @ 2'552. Sold VTI and VIOV (30% of portfolio) and bought SPXU.
Still a few minutes to go, but nicely played / nice luck!
Well played sir, well played. I thought about it, but given my track record with getting the time part right, I am still doing nothing.
I'm starting to think that I'm not on Bogleheads.org anymore. Did the whole community just throw their investment philosophy out of the window? Lol.

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:03 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:44 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm
VOO can't go to zero, stock holders can sell the telephone poles Verizon owned to get some money back.
Did Enron's shareholders get anything meaningful back?

There may be nothing left at all by the time that shareholders step up with their hand held out.
With VOO all 500 of the biggest US companies would have to go to zero. If that happens we will be living in the dark as hunter gathers.
Enron was worth $21.7 billion when it went bankrupt, all that went to bond holders though. There have been many regulatory changed because of Enron so the likelihood of VOO going bankrupt is as close to zero as one can get.
Yes, I agree. My point was that losses in a long position are limited to one's investment, whereas that is not true of short positions.
Exactly. Then margin loans are called in when collateral falls.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:21 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:03 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:44 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:32 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:26 pm
VOO can't go to zero, stock holders can sell the telephone poles Verizon owned to get some money back.
Did Enron's shareholders get anything meaningful back?

There may be nothing left at all by the time that shareholders step up with their hand held out.
With VOO all 500 of the biggest US companies would have to go to zero. If that happens we will be living in the dark as hunter gathers.
Enron was worth $21.7 billion when it went bankrupt, all that went to bond holders though. There have been many regulatory changed because of Enron so the likelihood of VOO going bankrupt is as close to zero as one can get.
Yes, I agree. My point was that losses in a long position are limited to one's investment, whereas that is not true of short positions.
True, losses in a short position are limited to what one owns, liquid and most everything else. If the broker is doing their job one will only lose their margin account. There are no longer any debtor prisons except for missing alimony payments. :annoyed
Stef wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm
I'm starting to think that I'm not on Bogleheads.org anymore. Did the whole community just throw their investment philosophy out of the window? Lol.
The three fund portfolio is good for everyone but not best for everyone. Even Vanguard suggests I be 100% stock. That is because of my tolerance for pain and stable income.

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gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gilgamesh » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:42 pm

Stef wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:01 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:52 pm
RayKeynes wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:40 pm
dukeblue219 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:32 pm


We touched 2549.20 today. Did you pull the trigger?
Yes @ 2'552. Sold VTI and VIOV (30% of portfolio) and bought SPXU.
Still a few minutes to go, but nicely played / nice luck!
Well played sir, well played. I thought about it, but given my track record with getting the time part right, I am still doing nothing.
I'm starting to think that I'm not on Bogleheads.org anymore. Did the whole community just throw their investment philosophy out of the window? Lol.
You are boglehead, they are not....they are day trading in a volatile market.

dukeblue219
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:45 pm

Stef wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm
I'm starting to think that I'm not on Bogleheads.org anymore. Did the whole community just throw their investment philosophy out of the window? Lol.
This thread (and it's opposite) are pretty outside the box of the mainstream on this site.

Being a Boglehead doesn't mean you can't enjoy watching the market move,though. I like watching the daily movements and overnight futures but still 98% of my investments are Boglish and untouched during this crisis. There's only so many "I'm sitting calmly at 60/40" posts I can read in one day!

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:48 pm

gilgamesh wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:42 pm
You are boglehead, they are not....they are day trading in a volatile market.
Even "true" Bogleheads are permitted 10% "mad money" to do wild and crazy things. I consider myself a Boglehead even though I don't do a three fund portfolio. Not holding as much foreign stock as is suggested has worked out for me. I will admit I now have a larger paper loss than a true Boglehead but that is temporary; “Lord Willing and the Creek Don’t Rise”. :greedy

Lollytiger
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lollytiger » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:59 pm

Stef wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm
I'm starting to think that I'm not on Bogleheads.org anymore. Did the whole community just throw their investment philosophy out of the window? Lol.
Well, the thing with being a pure Boglehead is that you have nothing to talk about. I decided on a 50/50 portfolio 9 years ago and haven't changed the portfolio or posted since then.

quantAndHold
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:11 pm

I’m here for the entertainment.

I’m also not an NFL head coach, but I can argue about the Seahawks defense all day long.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:38 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:11 pm
I’m here for the entertainment.

I’m also not an NFL head coach, but I can argue about the Seahawks defense all day long.
Heh, exactly.

Go Chiefs. Kelce is my boy....
The J stands for Jay

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:17 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:11 pm
I’m here for the entertainment.

I’m also not an NFL head coach, but I can argue about the Seahawks Buffalo defense all day long.
Same here on both counts! :beer

Well, almost. :(
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

RayKeynes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RayKeynes » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:21 am

2400 broken, nice. Lets get down to 2'100 - real quick. :mrgreen:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:23 am

Eagles fan here, Chiefs comment noted. The points have been made, let's get back to discussing the market.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 am

RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:21 am
2400 broken, nice. Lets get down to 2'100 - real quick. :mrgreen:
Unemployment claims coming in 4 minutes. Futures are trending like the market expects a downside surprise.

Edit: 3.28M claims

RayKeynes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by RayKeynes » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:35 am

dukeblue219 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 am
RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:21 am
2400 broken, nice. Lets get down to 2'100 - real quick. :mrgreen:
Edit: 3.28M claims
Nice, 5x times more than the worst week in the financial crysis 2008. So, now please lets go to fair value.

dknightd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dknightd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:38 am

gilgamesh wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:42 pm
Stef wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:09 pm

I'm starting to think that I'm not on Bogleheads.org anymore. Did the whole community just throw their investment philosophy out of the window? Lol.
You are boglehead, they are not....they are day trading in a volatile market.
It would be a pretty boring forum if we all did the same thing :)

edit: to stay on topic, I hope this free fall is over, or at least over soon.
If you value a bird in the hand, pay off the loan. If you are willing to risk getting two birds (or none) from the market, invest the funds.

minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:44 am

RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:35 am
dukeblue219 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 am
RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:21 am
2400 broken, nice. Lets get down to 2'100 - real quick. :mrgreen:
Edit: 3.28M claims
Nice, 5x times more than the worst week in the financial crysis 2008. So, now please lets go to fair value.
Expected and priced in?

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nps
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nps » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:50 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:44 am
RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:35 am
dukeblue219 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:27 am
RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:21 am
2400 broken, nice. Lets get down to 2'100 - real quick. :mrgreen:
Edit: 3.28M claims
Nice, 5x times more than the worst week in the financial crysis 2008. So, now please lets go to fair value.
Expected and priced in?
I think this notion of "priced in" is often taken too far, but less than 1 percent down in futures does not look like the calamity some posters were predicting last night. So much for the crystal balls.

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morsk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:29 am

RayKeynes wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:35 am

So, now please lets go to fair value.
Just curious, what is fair value to you?

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:31 am

The dead cat is still bouncing.

Stocks up at the open.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:36 am

Free falling the other direction.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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