Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

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DoTheMath
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by DoTheMath » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 am

CobraKai wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:49 pm
cogito wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:04 pm
You may be right and you may be wrong, but you are gambling. Neither you nor I have the ability to know what "The Stock Market" will do next week, because there is too much information for any one person to know and understand. If you think you can, you're wrong, even if you make the right bet.
You got to know when to hold 'em,
Know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away,
And know when to run.
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done.
+1
“I am losing precious days. I am degenerating into a machine for making money. I am learning nothing in this trivial world of men. I must break away and get out into the mountains...” -- John Muir

MotoTrojan
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:25 am

nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:56 am


I agree with the rest of your points but military mandated shutdown would violate the principle of civilian control of the military. Countries that don't have that system are usually termed military dictatorships. Not sure if that's what you meant, even an administration directed national shutdown would be far less extreme.

Military supported is a better phrase maybe? New Rochelle is already being overseen by the National Guard (Military).

donaldfair71
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by donaldfair71 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:24 am

flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm
The stock market is a wealth transfer device from the emotional to the opportunistic

For better or worse most people don’t have the temperament to be financially independent

There’s a reason it’s called the 1%
Bingo.

JP Morgan said it best, “Bear markets return stocks to their rightful owners”.

This includes the everyday retail investor that has the brilliance to do nothing at all but stay the course.

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nps
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by nps » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:25 am
nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:56 am


I agree with the rest of your points but military mandated shutdown would violate the principle of civilian control of the military. Countries that don't have that system are usually termed military dictatorships. Not sure if that's what you meant, even an administration directed national shutdown would be far less extreme.

Military supported is a better phrase maybe? New Rochelle is already being overseen by the National Guard (Military).
Yeah. Sorry to be pedantic :D

rbaldini
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by rbaldini » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:43 am

If this isn’t market timing, nothing is.

Rosencrantz1
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:26 am

watchnerd wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:00 pm
OP should get out of the market.

He's clearly too frazzled to stay the course if/when things drop further.


Maybe he'll never get back in.

But he'll feel better and maybe learn something.

Plus, watching this collective group therapy session is just a waste of the combined energy of the community.

Fish or cut bait, OP.

We've lead you to the water, but we can't make you drink.
I have to agree. Another option - and, I know this is heresy on this board - would be to consider a financial advisor. My understanding is they (financial advisors) are 'earning' their 1% lately with a ton of hand-holding through these turbulent times.

cashboy
Posts: 315
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Location: USA

Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by cashboy » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:36 pm
Ocean77 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:22 pm

Or maybe it's a hedge fund manager who shorted the market and now tries to drive it down...

I mean it's hard to imagine how somebody who reads up on John Bogle's works, decides to follows his principles, then finds this site as a place of like-minded investors would then create an OP like this.
No, I'm not a hedge fund manager. I'm not a troll. I'm not any of that. I'm an investor that started during this long Bull Market and this rapid market decline, with circuit breakers going off, is scaring the living hell out of me. This looks different and feels different. Everything is shutting down.

I've made the post here because I started in equities based on Jack Bogle. Right now, I'm scared as hell. And again, I'm not the only one.
OP,

based on your posts in this thread

ex: "...with circuit breakers going off, is scaring the living hell out of me"

you should not be invested in equities (and I mean that in a nice way).

and that is that.
Three-Fund Portfolio: FSPSX - FXAIX - FXNAX (with slight tilt of CDs - CASH - Canned Beans - Rice - Bottled Water)

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BogleFanGal
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by BogleFanGal » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:07 am

DoTheMath wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 am
CobraKai wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:49 pm
cogito wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:04 pm
You may be right and you may be wrong, but you are gambling. Neither you nor I have the ability to know what "The Stock Market" will do next week, because there is too much information for any one person to know and understand. If you think you can, you're wrong, even if you make the right bet.
You got to know when to hold 'em,
Know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away,
And know when to run.
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealing's done.
+1
RIP Kenny :(
"Life would be infinitely happier if we could only be born at the age of eighty and gradually approach eighteen." Mark Twain

Ocean77
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Ocean77 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:12 am

nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:56 am
Fortunately it can't drop more than 20% from here on Monday alone! But if you include Tuesday we could get there. Hopefully not.
I'm bracing for that, since markets tend to overshoot. But I can't imagine this going on for long. As bad as the virus is, I don't see that the US and world economy would now be worth only half as much, as at the beginning of the year.

gunther35
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by gunther35 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:25 pm

I am a new poster and would like to share my perspective to the millennials in this thread.

I am 57 yo and have done well investing over the last 25 years following the advice constantly preached by the senior contributors on this website.
This includes having a diversified portfolio, do passive investing by regularly contibuting money into retirement accounts every month, and changing my asset allocation to more conservative as I get older. (currently 50/50)

Here are some facts millennials should keep in mind:
Time is on your side!
Even if your portfolio dropped from 180K to 120K this last month, try not to worry.
You probably wouldn't have been able to live off of 180K in retirement anyway. You need to stay the course to let your portfolio grow exponentially.
In a thirty year investing horizon, most significant growth will likely happen in the last decade.
Warren Buffett was asked what he attributed to his investing success. He answered: Living in America and compound interest!

This leads me to the next point.
America is resilient
My grandparents had to deal with diseases and a small fraction of the medical advances we all enjoy today.
My parents had to deal with world wars.
Over the last century, our country has had to deal with multiple crises, but the markets eventually rebounded after all of them.

My last point is:
Nobody can predict with 100% accuracy if the market will be up or down tomorrow or next week.
An example, Warren Buffet bought $45 million worth of shares of Delta Airlines Feb 27 at $46 per share. Today, the share price is $21.

Just my 2 cents.

Gunther

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Riley15
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Riley15 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:05 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:15 pm
The best strategy is to not time the market and I will preach that until the end of day. But we have a different problem here. The issue here is that we are now in a crisis that the world has never seen before with The Great Shutdown.

I'm reading report after report after report, that The Great Shutdown will go beyond April. It will go until the month of June in some capacity. So this Great Shutdown isn't a temporary situation, it's going to be here for a number of months. You have entire States that are shut down, completely SHUT DOWN. You have sectors shut down. This can turn into a modern day version of The Great Depression.

- As a result, stocks are going to roller coaster ride all the way to DOW 15,000 in my opinion (or lower).

- I have $55,000 to recover (portion of principal and growth) in order to get back to the amount my equity investments were at the peak in January 2020. I have a long time horizon (25 years) to get the recovery back, but I don't see why I should stay in here and ride the market all the way down as now that $55,000 amount balloons to $70,000 or $75,000.

- So my strategy here is to move the monies to the side, let The Great Shutdown end, then get back in the market later.

- I know this looks like I'm trying to time the market and I honestly am not. I'm not trying to perfectly get out and get back in perfectly at the bottom, I don't know what the bottom is on this but I am predicting it's going to be way lower than DOW 19000 as of yesterday.

- So I made the move to move the monies out of equities and off to the side for now, until The Great Shutdown is over. I'll move the monies back in later in the year. Can I miss some gains with this? Yes. For example, DOW can ride down to 15,000 and spike to 17,000 and I miss it that portion. I get it. But by not having rode down to 15,000 I can afford to miss said gains and get back in around 17,000 in this example.

Again, I know this looks like timing the market, but there's no way with The Great Shutdown that stocks aren't about to tank lower. There's just no way.
OP,
Your thread is very similar to this one viewtopic.php?f=10&t=302882 except the rebalancing was to a different AA and it was done much earlier and he got similar responses as this thread.

This is a "frog boiling" situation in where every day and every week things are getting worse and worse yet people tend to build "immunity" to the past bad news and keep thinking it won't get worse than this. I don't believe the markets have "priced" anything in at all with any certainty, when the market is down 8% one day and up 8% the next that says market has no clue what to expect or what to do because really we haven't seen this before, Ever!

Most recessions are caused by systemic flaws, credit, housing, banking, business failure. This is changing the very fabric of our lives for years to come. Money flow has come to standstill. I have no clue how this will effect stock prices but I don't think the market does either.

silencebk
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by silencebk » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:17 pm

I think the author has posted in the wrong forum. May I suggest an alternative forum - something like ... https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

Good luck with your decisions though.

dru808
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by dru808 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:23 pm

You’ve typed The Great Shutdown, hold till I die, but this time it’s different, so many times, you’ve got to be trolling.

jwa
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by jwa » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:35 pm

Hard to believe this thread is at 5 pages.

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watchnerd
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by watchnerd » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:38 pm

OP sell my all your shares.

I want to take those young puppies to their forever home where they can grow big and strong over the years.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

InvestingGeek
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by InvestingGeek » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:12 pm

Riley15 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:05 pm
This is a "frog boiling" situation in where every day and every week things are getting worse and worse yet people tend to build "immunity" to the past bad news and keep thinking it won't get worse than this. I don't believe the markets have "priced" anything in at all with any certainty, when the market is down 8% one day and up 8% the next that says market has no clue what to expect or what to do because really we haven't seen this before, Ever!

Most recessions are caused by systemic flaws, credit, housing, banking, business failure. This is changing the very fabric of our lives for years to come. Money flow has come to standstill. I have no clue how this will effect stock prices but I don't think the market does either.
For years to come? Really? How?

This thing will be a distant memory a year after it's gone. You'll be surprised how quickly people forget and resume their lives.

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:07 pm

Friday's market activity pushed me out of my allocation tolerance band. Today I rebalanced into stocks. I did not reallocate. I'm following my plan and turning the crank.
PJW

Gufomel
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Gufomel » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:06 am

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:38 pm

If you don’t sell then you’re guaranteed not to gain or lose any equity. If you do, you might make money or you might lose it forever (yes a 10% one-day move is possible, or smaller ones that your gut tells you aren’t the rebound is my guess); it’s called gambling and you might as well withdraw 25% and put it on black at the casino.
Okay but let me ask a question.

S&P is 2300 right now as of Friday. Let's say I sell on Monday with S&P at 2250.

I'm thinking that let's say long term, S&P 500 will get to 6000 - 7000. Okay?

If I wait to jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over, maybe I'm jumping back in at S&P 2500 let's just say. If I'm still under the belief that it will go up to 6000 - 7000, what is wrong with this strategy?

You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen? Or, is this just me trying to time the market and I shouldn't think about these things?
OP, did you end up selling? With the market up ~6% today, I’m just interested in what thoughts go through someone’s mind who sold. This very well may be just a “dead cat bounce”. But at what point do you decide to get back in if the market only goes up or flat for a while?

dziuniek
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by dziuniek » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:09 am

OP,

That's a textbook example of market timing. HAHA.

Everyone seems to forget that market can be forward looking.... We had a 30% drop before restaurants closed down.

We can have a 30% increase way before the 'great shutdown' ends......

WIAV8TOR
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by WIAV8TOR » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:24 am

I’m not a ‘market timer’(Bob’s newsletter), but nothing wrong with increasing in a few areas in dips, rebalancing when high.

One doesn’t have to identify the absolute bottom, 30% down is close enough.

Gufomel
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Gufomel » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:29 am

WIAV8TOR wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:24 am
I’m not a ‘market timer’(Bob’s newsletter), but nothing wrong with increasing in a few areas in dips, rebalancing when high.

One doesn’t have to identify the absolute bottom, 30% down is close enough.
OP wasn’t actually rebalancing, he was selling out of stocks.

bltn
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by bltn » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:59 am

Market timing is buying or selling based on predictions of future market activity. That is what you are doing. You do believe in market timing. And if you get lucky and hit it right this time, you ll do it again. And again.
Casino winners early rarely walk away with all, or any, of their winnings. Gamblers always think they ll be the exception. Market timing is analogous to gambling. Claiming it is informed is self delusion.

bltn
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by bltn » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:03 am

gunther35 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:25 pm
I am a new poster and would like to share my perspective to the millennials in this thread.

I am 57 yo and have done well investing over the last 25 years following the advice constantly preached by the senior contributors on this website.
This includes having a diversified portfolio, do passive investing by regularly contibuting money into retirement accounts every month, and changing my asset allocation to more conservative as I get older. (currently 50/50)

Here are some facts millennials should keep in mind:
Time is on your side!
Even if your portfolio dropped from 180K to 120K this last month, try not to worry.
You probably wouldn't have been able to live off of 180K in retirement anyway. You need to stay the course to let your portfolio grow exponentially.
In a thirty year investing horizon, most significant growth will likely happen in the last decade.
Warren Buffett was asked what he attributed to his investing success. He answered: Living in America and compound interest!

This leads me to the next point.
America is resilient
My grandparents had to deal with diseases and a small fraction of the medical advances we all enjoy today.
My parents had to deal with world wars.
Over the last century, our country has had to deal with multiple crises, but the markets eventually rebounded after all of them.

My last point is:
Nobody can predict with 100% accuracy if the market will be up or down tomorrow or next week.
An example, Warren Buffet bought $45 million worth of shares of Delta Airlines Feb 27 at $46 per share. Today, the share price is $21.

Just my 2 cents.

Gunther
That was worth a lot more than 2 cents!

jjface
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by jjface » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:10 am

If OP did sell on Monday markets are up 8% since then. It will be difficult for them now to know whether they should get back in or hold out for drop. With the volatility we are seeing it could go either way. Personally I reckon 3 days of successive 5%+ gains due to this stimulus package and the way Trump is talking about reopening things. But I am usually useless at predicting things so we probably will lose 30% by the end of the week instead!

LFKB
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by LFKB » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:33 am

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:15 pm
The best strategy is to not time the market and I will preach that until the end of day. But we have a different problem here. The issue here is that we are now in a crisis that the world has never seen before with The Great Shutdown.

I'm reading report after report after report, that The Great Shutdown will go beyond April. It will go until the month of June in some capacity. So this Great Shutdown isn't a temporary situation, it's going to be here for a number of months. You have entire States that are shut down, completely SHUT DOWN. You have sectors shut down. This can turn into a modern day version of The Great Depression.

- As a result, stocks are going to roller coaster ride all the way to DOW 15,000 in my opinion (or lower).

- I have $55,000 to recover (portion of principal and growth) in order to get back to the amount my equity investments were at the peak in January 2020. I have a long time horizon (25 years) to get the recovery back, but I don't see why I should stay in here and ride the market all the way down as now that $55,000 amount balloons to $70,000 or $75,000.

- So my strategy here is to move the monies to the side, let The Great Shutdown end, then get back in the market later.

- I know this looks like I'm trying to time the market and I honestly am not. I'm not trying to perfectly get out and get back in perfectly at the bottom, I don't know what the bottom is on this but I am predicting it's going to be way lower than DOW 19000 as of yesterday.

- So I made the move to move the monies out of equities and off to the side for now, until The Great Shutdown is over. I'll move the monies back in later in the year. Can I miss some gains with this? Yes. For example, DOW can ride down to 15,000 and spike to 17,000 and I miss it that portion. I get it. But by not having rode down to 15,000 I can afford to miss said gains and get back in around 17,000 in this example.

Again, I know this looks like timing the market, but there's no way with The Great Shutdown that stocks aren't about to tank lower. There's just no way.
OP, I think today is a perfect example of how markets can rise even though the shutdown and cases are getting worse. The market is up nearly 10% today and your plan was to sell yesterday at the close.

Did you end up selling or holding yesterday?

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bertilak
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by bertilak » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:59 pm

jjface wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:10 am
If OP did sell on Monday markets are up 8% since then. It will be difficult for them now to know whether they should get back in or hold out for drop. With the volatility we are seeing it could go either way. Personally I reckon 3 days of successive 5%+ gains due to this stimulus package and the way Trump is talking about reopening things. But I am usually useless at predicting things so we probably will lose 30% by the end of the week instead!
To quote Chuck Berry -- "You Never Can Tell".
May neither drought nor rain nor blizzard disturb the joy juice in your gizzard. -- Squire Omar Barker (aka S.O.B.), the Cowboy Poet

Alex GR
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Alex GR » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:23 am

gunther35 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:25 pm
I am a new poster and would like to share my perspective to the millennials in this thread.

I am 57 yo and have done well investing over the last 25 years following the advice constantly preached by the senior contributors on this website.
This includes having a diversified portfolio, do passive investing by regularly contibuting money into retirement accounts every month, and changing my asset allocation to more conservative as I get older. (currently 50/50)

Here are some facts millennials should keep in mind:
Time is on your side!
Even if your portfolio dropped from 180K to 120K this last month, try not to worry.
You probably wouldn't have been able to live off of 180K in retirement anyway. You need to stay the course to let your portfolio grow exponentially.
In a thirty year investing horizon, most significant growth will likely happen in the last decade.
Warren Buffett was asked what he attributed to his investing success. He answered: Living in America and compound interest!

This leads me to the next point.
America is resilient
My grandparents had to deal with diseases and a small fraction of the medical advances we all enjoy today.
My parents had to deal with world wars.
Over the last century, our country has had to deal with multiple crises, but the markets eventually rebounded after all of them.

My last point is:
Nobody can predict with 100% accuracy if the market will be up or down tomorrow or next week.
An example, Warren Buffet bought $45 million worth of shares of Delta Airlines Feb 27 at $46 per share. Today, the share price is $21.

Just my 2 cents.

Gunther
Gunther,
Welcome to the forum. Great first post.
I do have one question: Are you permanently at 50/50 or do you use some type of formula to reduce equity part with age? This piqued my interest because I do "Age - 7 in bonds" so when I am 57, I'll be at 50/50 also. But I'll be at 49/51 at 58, and so on. Thanks!

Alex GR
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Alex GR » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:37 am

OP,
You're not listening to advice given to you dozens of times.
S&P was at 2237 on Monday of this week. It went up by 9.38% on Tuesday and is now @ 2447.
What will you do if goes to 2500 tomorrow, then 2600, then 2700 (with minor drops along the way but never back to 2447?) Tune out that doomsday rhetoric and just tell us what you'll do if this happens?
This is why thousands of people on this board are not selling but buying.
Read about "March 9th, 2009". People were jumping out the window although I think in these particular cases they traded on margin and lost it all. What if Monday March 23rd was the equivalent of March 9th 2009 for this crash?
Last edited by Alex GR on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:39 am, edited 1 time in total.

DonIce
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by DonIce » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:33 am

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm
You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen? Or, is this just me trying to time the market and I shouldn't think about these things?
What you said couldn't happen, happened. The market had a major (10%) up day yesterday. So what do you do now? Maybe you keep waiting and get lucky and it goes back down again. But maybe not.. then when do you get back in?

flaccidsteele
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by flaccidsteele » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:49 am

I feel badly for the OP. Same thing happened to the poor and middle class during the tech crash and credit crisis and now the virus crisis

The market will always transfer wealth from the emotional to the opportunistic

Shame

Bernanke: Coronavirus disruptions ‘much closer to a major snowstorm’ than the Great Depression
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

LFKB
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by LFKB » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:07 pm

The Dow is now near 22k or up 16% from when the OP wanted to sell at Monday’s close...curious if OP sold all or any and what OP is doing now

cogito
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by cogito » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:09 pm

In defense of the OP, however - once the dust has settled, I am positive that many seasoned Bogleheads will have panicked and sold at inopportune times as well. It's been a rough couple of months here.

rakish_weasel
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by rakish_weasel » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:34 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:43 pm

Okay but let me ask a question.
S&P is 2300 right now as of Friday. Let's say I sell on Monday with S&P at 2250.
I'm thinking that let's say long term, S&P 500 will get to 6000 - 7000. Okay?

If I wait to jump back in after The Great Shutdown is over, maybe I'm jumping back in at S&P 2500 let's just say. If I'm still under the belief that it will go up to 6000 - 7000, what is wrong with this strategy?

You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen? Or, is this just me trying to time the market and I shouldn't think about these things?
And therein lies the problem with your attempts to time the market (which is all it is -- not 'rebalancing'). You figured you'd jump back in at S&P 2500 "after The Great Shutdown is over." Two days later, the Dow is up over 3,000 points, and the S&P is already above 2500 -- sitting at 2545 as I write this. If indeed you sold all your funds to try to time the market (which you haven't said whether you've actually done this or not) then you already missed out not on two big days of jumps, but even your S&P 2500 re-enter level.

Are we done with the pandemic and its corresponding bear market & volatility? Likely not. But look at your words here:
You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen?
... and now look at yesterday's Dow +2,112 and today's Dow +1,000+. How can this possibly happen? Because it's the markets, and nobody can predict how these things are going to go -- which is precisely why attempting to time the market is nearly always a fool's errand.

-rw

coupleofcents
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by coupleofcents » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:38 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm

Yes, there could be major gains in the market, but do you really think I'm going to miss a 10% one day gain on The S&P 500 right now? Do you really and honestly think that's going to happen?
I think you said you decided not to sell on this past Monday. But if you did sell, I think you would have very easily missed out on yesterday's 10% gain.
Last edited by coupleofcents on Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

LFKB
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by LFKB » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:39 pm

cogito wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:09 pm
In defense of the OP, however - once the dust has settled, I am positive that many seasoned Bogleheads will have panicked and sold at inopportune times as well. It's been a rough couple of months here.
I know it may feel like a couple of months but it’s only been 5 weeks since the S&P was at an all time high

Gufomel
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Gufomel » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:42 pm

You guys have stated the issue with this is that I can miss a major UP day, but I'm not sure how a major UP day is coming while The Great Shutdown is active? How can that possibly happen?
Welp, yesterday 3/24/2020 was the 8th largest % UP day in the history of the S&P and the largest ever outside of the Great Depression and 2008. Followed by another approx 4% so far today.

I believe you mentioned somewhere in this thread that you cancelled your sell orders over the weekend. I hope that’s true. And I hope you’ll accept that you have absolutely no idea where the market is going in the short-term. None of us do.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by HomerJ » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:58 pm

Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm
Yes, there could be major gains in the market, but do you really think I'm going to miss a 10% one day gain on The S&P 500 right now? Do you really and honestly think that's going to happen?
Can this be put in the wiki and at the top of the main page for the next year?

Never seen a more perfect example to prove that NONE OF US KNOW THE FUTURE.

I wouldn't have believed a 10% up day was very likely either, and then right after you post that... we get one.
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FishTaco
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by FishTaco » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:46 pm

This thread and the "Selling 100% stocks on a bounce" thread are my new BFF favorite threads.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by panhead » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:00 pm

FishTaco wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:46 pm
This thread and the "Selling 100% stocks on a bounce" thread are my new BFF favorite threads.
Yeah, these two threads and the shows, "hoarders" and "my 600lb life"
I keep trying to turn away, but I just can't.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by TxAg » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:18 pm

Tagged for levity

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by BH_RedRan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:43 pm

So this has been entertaining. I needed something to do while I downloaded and installed some software so I read a couple of these threads. I have the opposite problem as the OP. I was so tempted to put much of my EF into stock in the down market that I made myself move it out of Vanguard into a savings account and confessed to my wife what I was thinking. :greedy Both of those moves made it harder for me to make a strategic mistake by adding friction to the decision equation. It probably would have worked out if I had jumped on it but I finally calmed to heck down and followed my plan. I feel good that my EF is intact and feel OK missing an opportunity for shares at a sale price. Since I'm confessing, what I really wanted to buy was Boeing, not just more VFIAX or similar. :beer

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by samuck » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:59 pm

OP should not have been in stocks at all. Now he has missed quite a rebound, more to come surely. It‘s times like these when you learn more about who you really are... However, respect for your transparency! People will learn from your bad decisions.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:15 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:58 pm
Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm
Yes, there could be major gains in the market, but do you really think I'm going to miss a 10% one day gain on The S&P 500 right now? Do you really and honestly think that's going to happen?
Can this be put in the wiki and at the top of the main page for the next year?

Never seen a more perfect example to prove that NONE OF US KNOW THE FUTURE.

I wouldn't have believed a 10% up day was very likely either, and then right after you post that... we get one.
Comedy gold.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Blue456 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:51 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:25 am
nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:56 am


I agree with the rest of your points but military mandated shutdown would violate the principle of civilian control of the military. Countries that don't have that system are usually termed military dictatorships. Not sure if that's what you meant, even an administration directed national shutdown would be far less extreme.

Military supported is a better phrase maybe? New Rochelle is already being overseen by the National Guard (Military).
That is a huge difference. Military can serve support role, they have no role in law enforcement within territorial United States. Heads would roll really really fast if anything like that occurred. There is a strong tradition in here to keep military out of policing for very good reasons.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by Noobvestor » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:54 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:15 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:58 pm
Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:34 pm
Yes, there could be major gains in the market, but do you really think I'm going to miss a 10% one day gain on The S&P 500 right now? Do you really and honestly think that's going to happen?
Can this be put in the wiki and at the top of the main page for the next year?

Never seen a more perfect example to prove that NONE OF US KNOW THE FUTURE.

I wouldn't have believed a 10% up day was very likely either, and then right after you post that... we get one.
Comedy gold.
Really shows nobody knows nothin. :shock: :o :D :sharebeer
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by gunther35 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:13 pm

Alex GR wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:23 am
gunther35 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:25 pm
I am a new poster and would like to share my perspective to the millennials in this thread.

I am 57 yo and have done well investing over the last 25 years following the advice constantly preached by the senior contributors on this website.
This includes having a diversified portfolio, do passive investing by regularly contibuting money into retirement accounts every month, and changing my asset allocation to more conservative as I get older. (currently 50/50)

Here are some facts millennials should keep in mind:
Time is on your side!
Even if your portfolio dropped from 180K to 120K this last month, try not to worry.
You probably wouldn't have been able to live off of 180K in retirement anyway. You need to stay the course to let your portfolio grow exponentially.
In a thirty year investing horizon, most significant growth will likely happen in the last decade.
Warren Buffett was asked what he attributed to his investing success. He answered: Living in America and compound interest!

This leads me to the next point.
America is resilient
My grandparents had to deal with diseases and a small fraction of the medical advances we all enjoy today.
My parents had to deal with world wars.
Over the last century, our country has had to deal with multiple crises, but the markets eventually rebounded after all of them.

My last point is:
Nobody can predict with 100% accuracy if the market will be up or down tomorrow or next week.
An example, Warren Buffet bought $45 million worth of shares of Delta Airlines Feb 27 at $46 per share. Today, the share price is $21.

Just my 2 cents.

Gunther
Gunther,
Welcome to the forum. Great first post.
I do have one question: Are you permanently at 50/50 or do you use some type of formula to reduce equity part with age? This piqued my interest because I do "Age - 7 in bonds" so when I am 57, I'll be at 50/50 also. But I'll be at 49/51 at 58, and so on. Thanks!
Thanks Alex for your kind words.

I think you are spot-on with fixed income % equal to your age minus 7.
I don’t think an investor can go wrong following specific stock/bond allocations that get a little more conservative as they get older.
I think I was around 60/40 a decade ago and I will probably be at 40/60 a decade from now.

Gunther

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wander
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by wander » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:43 pm

Where is the Op?

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by sergeant » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:25 pm

wander wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:43 pm
Where is the Op?
He dropped the mic when he said a 10% up day was impossible. No way he would want to pick it up and continue.
Lincoln 3 EOW! AA 40/60.

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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:34 pm

sergeant wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:25 pm
wander wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:43 pm
Where is the Op?
He dropped the mic when he said a 10% up day was impossible. No way he would want to pick it up and continue.
Better to burn out than to fade away!!

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted:
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Re: Guys I Rebalanced (Moved Monies Out Of S&P 500)

Post by coupleofcents » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:09 am

watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:34 pm
sergeant wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:25 pm
wander wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:43 pm
Where is the Op?
He dropped the mic when he said a 10% up day was impossible. No way he would want to pick it up and continue.
Better to burn out than to fade away!!

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

Hey guys I noticed the comment about the 10% drop not happening and commented on the irony. But let's not get down on the OP. He actually said he didn't sell after getting feedback See below.
Ambitious994 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:40 pm

So here's what I just did, I cancelled the "Sell" transaction in Vanguard. It's Saturday anyway and it wasn't going to be processed until end of day on Monday. So I cancelled it and I'm going to hold and just keep riding it.

The reason being is that honestly, I don't know what's about to happen but I have a strong FEAR (yes, it's completely FEAR) that DOW is about to bleed to 15000. But I don't know.

I can tell you I'm already in terms of allocation leveraged very conservative anyway. I'm 36 and the usual recommendation is to have your age in Bonds let's say, so I should have maybe 60% of my entire investable assets in equities anyway and I don't. I know you guys are going to probably jump on me about that lol, but I'm a Conservative investor and trust me if I'm a little panicky about the percentage of my investable assets in the market right now........I would probably need to be hospitalized if 90% of my assets or something was in the market right now lol.

So I'll stay the course. Maybe that's why I posted on here. I needed the spirit of Jack Bogle during this time.

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