Here’s the thing. Others making the right call and getting out of the market doesn’t upset me, because I know I’m lousy at it and don’t attempt it - so why bother being upset about it? I’ve thought we were headed for a crash more than once in the last few years, but it has never happened before now. Nor do I study charts and position my portfolio accordingly.hoops777 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:03 pmThis all sounds great, but there is a huge difference between someone who consistently thinks they can time the market, especially during normal times, and this situation which saw a huge problem in China and our market at all time highs. Some people just cannot stand the idea that anyone can think and make a decision. Of course there was not a 100 pct guarantee the market was going to plunge meaningfully. There is only one thing in this life that is 100 pct guaranteed yet we make decisions everyday not knowing the outcome. It is an educated guess not blasphemy. Nobody on this thread is saying market timing is a great practice or that they do it normally. Just relax and be happy that some people made an evaluation, acted upon it and were right.ks289 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:16 amHere’s why I don’t market time. I’m quite certain I have no clue about the future of the markets, even while working in healthcare during this coronavirus pandemic. It is incredibly difficult for me to translate forthcoming hospital shortages of personal protective equipments and ventilators and intensive care beds into a fair value for the S&P 500. As a result, I’d have a difficult time being correct 74% of the time as some experts have stated below is required for market timing to outperform.
Dr. William J. Bernstein, financial expert, once said “There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don’t know where the market is headed, and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Then again, there is a third type of investor – the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn’t know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.”
Nobel Laureate William Sharpe concluded that a market timer must be correct 74% of the time in order to outperform a steady portfolio at a comparable level of risk.
I can understand all of the dogmatic types being upset if someone here was boasting about their ability to time the market and they just said I did it again! That is not the case so live with it.
Do I sound like I’m mad at the timers? I am trying to calm the bleep down over the scary stuff that’s happening particularly in healthcare and money a bit less so. My finances have been actually mostly secondary to planning for the safety of my patients and staff and myself.
I’m sure there are a certain percentage of timers (probably the ones posting the most) who will outperform the market even over the long term and good luck with that. I think it’s odd to post that stuff on this site though since it is a core principle of the investment philosophy to avoid timing the market for gods sakes!
I’m pretty damn conservative actually so my losses % wise are not (yet) nearly as bad as 2009, although similar to white coat investor the amount is more than 10x what it was back then. As long as things are getting back to normal sometime in the next 5-7 years I’ll be pretty satisfied.