Why isn't this time different?

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JD101
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Why isn't this time different?

Post by JD101 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm

Before this, few crashes come to mind, sep 09/11, 2008 sub prime bust etc etc. In all of these crashes the entire world wasn't shut down/involved like it is now. Not everyone was affected.Whenever there is a calamity, you have one pocket or few pockets that get affected at the most, not the entire world.

Corona has brought to the surface what an infection can do especially in more globalized world than ever before. This is worse than a war, yeah where much more people die but enemy is known and you can end it when you want or it is only going to last for a finite time.

All the past theories and concepts of investing have to be rethought in the wake of world wide infectious diseases. If this keeps happening every few years, I don't know how you can make even 4-5 % return on a long term basis, in fact there is a very good chance that you may not even have anything left.

livesoft
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by livesoft » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:46 pm

Check back in November and then let's discuss.
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mega317
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by mega317 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:51 pm

I think some of your assumptions are wrong. I wasn't very old but I seem to remember 2008 affecting quite a lot of people and the world economy seeming like it was shutting down.

I don't think your descriptions of war are particularly accurate but maybe that doesn't matter.

Why do you think this will happen every few years?

We do know a lot about this pandemic, expected trajectories, mortality predictions, etc. Wuhan is making plans to end the lockdown. I don't mean at all to minimize what has happened and is happening there, but 3,000 people died which means even if those numbers aren't completely accurate, something like 10 million are still alive. Seems likely there will continue to be economic activity.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212

yohac
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by yohac » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:55 pm

JD101 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm
This is worse than a war
Seriously? I'll take this over a war any day.

bob60014
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by bob60014 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:58 pm

Have you read through this and other threads?

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=308970

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David Jay
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by David Jay » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:00 pm

JD101 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm
All the past theories and concepts of investing have to be rethought in the wake of world wide infectious diseases.
Really? All past concepts of investing?

Most of these would seem to be applicable, even if you are correct:

1. Develop a workable plan.
2. Invest early and often.
3. Never bear too much or too little risk.
4. Diversify.
5. Never try to time the market.
6. Use index funds when possible.
7. Keep costs low.
8. Minimize taxes.
9. Invest with simplicity.
10. Stay the course.
Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future - Niels Bohr | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius

Triple digit golfer
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Triple digit golfer » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:03 pm

They're all different from one other, which makes them really not different from one another.

:confused

Did anybody really expect the next bear market and recession to be like another one? "Oh, we've been through this before, a subprime mortgage crisis, so I'm confident the leaders will fix it for us." "Oh, I remember this, this happened in 2000, all the tech companies crashed, but we came out okay after a few years!"

Of course not. They're ALL different. Every one of them feels different and in the thick of it, feels like the end of times. It hasn't been yet and I highly doubt it will be this time.

Ignore the sensationalist news and stay your course.

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JD101
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JD101 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:20 pm

mega317 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:51 pm
I don't mean at all to minimize what has happened and is happening there, but 3,000 people died which means even if those numbers aren't completely accurate, something like 10 million are still alive. Seems likely there will continue to be economic activity.
It is not the number of deaths alone, even if a million people die in a short time, in a world where there are 8 billion people, that would still be a fraction. It is the psychological impact, and what if. Imagine if doctors/health care workers give up if it is start affecting them in a large number. Imagine what can happen if millions and millions of people have to live in lock down condition for weeks and there is shortage of essential stuff. Also, this has brought to surface the possibility of man made attacks.

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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by FishTaco » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:23 pm

I'll take a stab at this...

It isn't different this time because we will recover from this. In 18 months, we'll likely have a somewhat effective vaccine, and if not, treatment that is increasing in its effectiveness.

The big crisis right now is dealing with the huge demand surge from medical supplies and medical care. This will be addressed by 1)increasing production 2)people actually following guidelines to slow the transmission of disease. The big fight right now is whether people can voluntarily limit their (and others) exposure or if we need more aggressive measures to force people to comply. That is an ideological fight that is taking place, the science is clear.

Once we address the demand issues, we will have to reorganize our economy to reflect the different demands of the New Normal. I hypothesize this will involve shifting resources from industries like travel and entertainment to the provision of more essential services. There will be rocks in the road, but this will work itself out. This is fundamental to capitalism, the periodic destruction and reorganization of resources to more appropriately apply them.

There is some systemic risk to this, but that is being currently addressed by the monetary actions of the federal reserve and (hopefully) the upcoming fiscal actions by congress. The dollar is stronger than it has been for a while, and the big danger right now is not widespread inflation, but deflation. This gives a little wiggle room for issuance of more federal debt and the subsequent repurchasing of that debt by the fed.

It'll take a little time, but people will come together and overcome this challenge. The next few months are going to be particularly difficult, but people will adapt and overcome.

80/20, 6-digit paper losses, and holding the line,
FishTaco

edit: grammar

mega317
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by mega317 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:30 pm

I would love to see BH threads from 2008/9 imaging what ifs such as doctors giving up, shortages, man made attacks whatever that means. I think you need to relax a little. Curious--what is your portfolio?
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212

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JD101
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JD101 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:02 pm

man made attacks whatever that means
On purpose I didn't want to spell it explicitly. Please stretch your imagination. Not that difficult.
In 18 months, we'll likely have a somewhat effective vaccine, and if not, treatment that is increasing in its effectiveness.
I like your optimism and hope you are correct.
Yes,vaccine for Covid-19, not for covid - XX . If this came from wild animal then there are many possibilities. I'm even supersized that we don't see such type of deadly viruses coming more often than every 5-6 yrs going by the last few years trend.

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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:29 pm

Because it's happened before, even if outside most living memory. It's been worse than the present pandemic.

The point of the restrictions is to reduce the number of people who need medical care all at once. The estimates in the US are that 40% to 80% of us will eventually be infected. The attempt right now is to spread that out over time, to try to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system.

If a lot, even a majority, of us are infected, but not all at once, it's possible the healthcare system, with its people and resources, and it's very difficult to ramp up the number of clinicians quickly because of how many years of training they need, then spreading the health crisis out over time will be less bad than if all of us get sick the same month.

As I'm sure everybody has seen in the news there are critical shortages of equipment, personal protective and ventilators in particular.

This time is not different. The only difference between previous times when it was bad and now, is this time it's now. It's real. It's here. It's today.

That's why.

PJW

smitcat
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by smitcat » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:26 pm

JD101 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:02 pm
man made attacks whatever that means
On purpose I didn't want to spell it explicitly. Please stretch your imagination. Not that difficult.
In 18 months, we'll likely have a somewhat effective vaccine, and if not, treatment that is increasing in its effectiveness.
I like your optimism and hope you are correct.
Yes,vaccine for Covid-19, not for covid - XX . If this came from wild animal then there are many possibilities. I'm even supersized that we don't see such type of deadly viruses coming more often than every 5-6 yrs going by the last few years trend.
"Yes,vaccine for Covid-19, not for covid - XX ."
There are many vaccines being worked on right now for covid19.
A couple of them are very new and would work on the 'base' virus allowing defense across all related viral families (covid- xx's).

"I'm even supersized that we don't see such type of deadly viruses coming more often than every 5-6 yrs going by the last few years trend."
Sounds like the plot from "Pacific Rim"
There have always been many new viral strains.

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watchnerd
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:29 pm

No aliens.

When aliens come, it will be different.
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Enzo IX
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Enzo IX » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:35 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:29 pm
No aliens.

When aliens come, it will be different.
If you follow the Bob Lazar story, they are already here.

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watchnerd
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:37 pm

Enzo IX wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:35 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:29 pm
No aliens.

When aliens come, it will be different.
If you follow the Bob Lazar story, they are already here.
I mean publicly.

Like landing at Disney World.

Hidden aliens at Area 51 are already priced in.
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FishTaco
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by FishTaco » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:39 pm

I like your optimism and hope you are correct.
Yes,vaccine for Covid-19, not for covid - XX . If this came from wild animal then there are many possibilities. I'm even supersized that we don't see such type of deadly viruses coming more often than every 5-6 yrs going by the last few years trend.
Thank you, I'm happy to be a source of optimism at this point in time.

We've had viruses that have come recently that are much worse than corona - Ebola, SARS, MERS. They weren't the worldwide pandemic this one is for various reasons, but a leading reason is that we weren't ready for something like this. I think that has been some of the reason other places (Singapore particularly) have responded well is that this hasn't been their first rodeo. It is our first rodeo.

This comes back to what I mentioned, we will have to re-align our resources and priorities so that we are more prepared to respond in the future. This is just a tough way to learn that.

Check out this talk by Bill Gates a few years ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

flaccidsteele
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by flaccidsteele » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:30 am

JD101 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm
Before this, few crashes come to mind, sep 09/11, 2008 sub prime bust etc etc. In all of these crashes the entire world wasn't shut down/involved like it is now. Not everyone was affected.Whenever there is a calamity, you have one pocket or few pockets that get affected at the most, not the entire world.

Corona has brought to the surface what an infection can do especially in more globalized world than ever before. This is worse than a war, yeah where much more people die but enemy is known and you can end it when you want or it is only going to last for a finite time.

All the past theories and concepts of investing have to be rethought in the wake of world wide infectious diseases. If this keeps happening every few years, I don't know how you can make even 4-5 % return on a long term basis, in fact there is a very good chance that you may not even have anything left.
Um 9/11 and the credit crisis? Seriously? That’s the best you can recall? We’ve had crashes for over a century

It’s never different this time. Ever

Investing is a game of rinse and repeat where wealth is transferred from the emotional to the opportunistic. Always has. Always will
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by stocknoob4111 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:47 am

We had the 1918 Spanish Flu that killed millions around the globe, 650,000 in the US alone, not only that we were fighting WW1 at that time... I would definitely say that was a worse time than today, the entire world was in tumult in addition to the disease and we did not have the medical and technological expertise we have today. Despite that what followed was the roaring 20s, one of the most prosperous times in US history! So what happens next is not that predictable at all.

I think a lot of people underestimate the crazy stuff we have had happen in world history...and we've survived all that just fine. I think we'll survive this one too. The world is not ending.

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watchnerd
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:05 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:47 am

I think a lot of people underestimate the crazy stuff we have had happen in world history...and we've survived all that just fine. I think we'll survive this one too. The world is not ending.
People are soft now.
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Iridium
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Iridium » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:12 am

JD101 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm
If this keeps happening every few years, I don't know how you can make even 4-5 % return on a long term basis, in fact there is a very good chance that you may not even have anything left.
There doesn't seem to be any reason to believe this will happen more often in the future than the past. In fact, this pandemic will likely further motivate countries to implement regulations to halt the transmission of viruses from animals to humans (I believe it has to do with sanitation in agriculture, but am not certain of the details). In addition, I actually think the response has shown how incredible improvements in technology have been in being able to understand and detect the virus. A few decades ago, how reasonable would it have been to have the RNA sequenced within a couple weeks of it being identified as something other than weird pnumonia? I think I had read the the entire PCR process which all the early tests relied upon was only invented in 1999. This virus was a lot faster moving than pandemics we had dealt with in the past, so was able to evade a rapid response, but don't underestimate the speed of mobilization. The US is largely considered to be a laggard in testing, but I'll bet that public health officials of the past would have metaphorically killed to have had the ability to test 350K people within 8 weeks of an infectious disease's first case in the country. The excellent news is that there isn't any scientific reason our response cannot be faster next time. South Korea proves it is possible - I seem to recall a commercial company in the US getting EU certification and exporting its tests in mid February, so we must already have the industrial capacity to mass produce tests a month faster than we actually started having mass testing. One has to believe that after all of this is over, the lessons learned process will create some highly useful insights and greatly reduce the odds of this happening again (not impossible, mind you).

Don't get me wrong: the next few weeks are going to suck both economically and humanity. And 'few weeks' may be an understatement. However, it is not useful to imagine that a twice a century level pandemic is suddenly going to regularly show up twice a decade. I see no reason to believe the risk of pandemic has increased and many reasons to believe they will actually become rarer.

DonIce
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by DonIce » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:13 am

watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:05 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:47 am
I think a lot of people underestimate the crazy stuff we have had happen in world history...and we've survived all that just fine. I think we'll survive this one too. The world is not ending.
People are soft now.
People can harden up very quickly, when needed.

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watchnerd
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:00 am

DonIce wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:13 am
watchnerd wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:05 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:47 am
I think a lot of people underestimate the crazy stuff we have had happen in world history...and we've survived all that just fine. I think we'll survive this one too. The world is not ending.
People are soft now.
People can harden up very quickly, when needed.
Oh, 100%. But the early 21st century may be recognized as a bit of a Gilded Age 2.0.
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dave1054
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by dave1054 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:38 am

Love this post. Sounds like we are nearing a market bottom with all this pessimism.

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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Triple digit golfer » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:48 am

I enjoyed the perspective of Ben Bernanke and even James Bullard of the St. Louis Federal Reserve in this article. Underlining and bolding is my emphasis:
Ben Bernanke, the former Federal Reserve chairman who served before and after the 2008 financial crisis, told CNBC on Wednesday that the coronavirus economic halt is more like natural disaster than a classic depression.

Earlier Wednesday, current St. Louis Fed James Bullard told "Squawk Box" the U.S. economy is facing a huge shock to the system over the near-term, but it will then bounce back strong after worst of the outbreak passes.

Bullard said this week the nation's unemployment rate would skyrocket to 30%, higher than it was even during the Great Depression.

However, he tempered those remarks on CNBC, saying that while the near-term damage will be daunting, it's largely an intentional hit due to efforts to combat the spread of the coronavirus. It will be unwound quickly, he added.

Bullard and his fellow central bankers have taken extraordinary steps during the pandemic, pushing short-term borrowing rates to near-zero and pledging asset purchases with no limit to support markets.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ ... li=BBnbfcN

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JD101
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JD101 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:04 pm

I see no reason to believe the risk of pandemic has increased and many reasons to believe they will actually become rarer.
I see current pandemic risk is way way lower(not because we have done anything genius) but despite the way millions have started eating the habitats of this earth without impunity. This risk can only go up. I'm surprised that millions and billions eat everyday and such type of virus only shows up once in a while. I know there are new strains every year and many people die from flue every year, but nothing draws this kind of attention.

If virus came from eating a wild animal and many millions still continue to eat this way, and food is something you eat everyday, few times a day, why would the risk go down? I'm contesting that , it should be a lot higher. I'm not sure why it is so low? There is false sense of security that only wild animal is capable of such virus. Any animal can.

Mako52
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Mako52 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:36 pm

FishTaco wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:39 pm
I like your optimism and hope you are correct.
Yes,vaccine for Covid-19, not for covid - XX . If this came from wild animal then there are many possibilities. I'm even supersized that we don't see such type of deadly viruses coming more often than every 5-6 yrs going by the last few years trend.
Thank you, I'm happy to be a source of optimism at this point in time.

We've had viruses that have come recently that are much worse than corona - Ebola, SARS, MERS. They weren't the worldwide pandemic this one is for various reasons, but a leading reason is that we weren't ready for something like this. I think that has been some of the reason other places (Singapore particularly) have responded well is that this hasn't been their first rodeo. It is our first rodeo.

This comes back to what I mentioned, we will have to re-align our resources and priorities so that we are more prepared to respond in the future. This is just a tough way to learn that.

Check out this talk by Bill Gates a few years ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI
Singapore is 3.5 times the size of Washington DC, with an affluent, educated, law-abiding population. The per capita GDP is nearly $100k. Remember when the American kid was flogged for spitting gum in public? It's a law and order place. On that note, I don't recall seeing Singaporeans hocking and spitting like I did in China.

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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Nowizard » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:48 pm

So far, in the history of the stock market, it has always come back. If you don't define the number of years/months/days for it to do so, you have a pretty good chance of always being correct. Though the market has not ultimately been different in response to major downturns, there are certainly different circumstances for individual investors depending on their age, portfolio size, etc. when this downturn has occurred compared to others during their investing history. In many ways, the adage makes little sense other than for a particular category of investors at a particular point in time.

Tim

Iridium
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Iridium » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:52 pm

JD101 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:04 pm
I see no reason to believe the risk of pandemic has increased and many reasons to believe they will actually become rarer.
I see current pandemic risk is way way lower(not because we have done anything genius) but despite the way millions have started eating the habitats of this earth without impunity. This risk can only go up. I'm surprised that millions and billions eat everyday and such type of virus only shows up once in a while. I know there are new strains every year and many people die from flue every year, but nothing draws this kind of attention.

If virus came from eating a wild animal and many millions still continue to eat this way, and food is something you eat everyday, few times a day, why would the risk go down? I'm contesting that , it should be a lot higher. I'm not sure why it is so low? There is false sense of security that only wild animal is capable of such virus. Any animal can.
One of the most significant trends of the 20th century was urbanization. With many fewer people in rural areas, that means:

1) Many fewer casual interactions between humans and animals. I believe that patient zero of Ebola was a toddler who played in a tree inhabited by bats. The population of toddlers with such open access to the wild is decreasing, being replaced with access to parks, which would never have allowed a colony of bats to take up residence.

2) More formal processing - urban folks are far less likely to eat wild animals and any other food not subject to regulation by public health authorities. The animals harboring illnesses likely to jump to humans are known. The methods of sanitizing them are known. The likelihood of a disease coming from a commercial meatpacker is almost certainly far less than the likelihood of it coming from the wild. Sanitation efforts aren't even about preventing the next pandemic. There are plenty of ways to get sick with improperly prepared food, and all the efforts tackling those problems will carry over to pandemic prevention.

3) Mechanization of farming/ranching - The need to feed the same number of people with a lower rural population demands massive productivity increases. The capital intensity required will similarly boost the formalization of agriculture. Sick animals are far more likely to be identified and either treated or culled, rather than allowed to simply remain sick, infect the rest of the heard, and give the virus excess spins in the genetic lottery to infect us. At the same time, the mechanization also likely decreases the amount of human-animal contact because machines are now doing more of the work.

Overall, I would somewhat push back at your claim that we are increasingly eating wild habitats. I am not certain what you mean by eating a habitat, but if you mean eating wild animals, I would be extraordinarily surprised if that was actually increasing. Excluding seafood (which is different enough from us biologically that it isn't much risk) the green revolution has largely displaced the need for wild foods. Anyway, urbanization makes the wild too far away for most of the world's population for wild food to be an effective food source. It seems extremely unlikely that commercial food production is anywhere near the risk of wild food production. Animals monitored and controlled from cradle to grave to processing with an eye to minimize the chance of giving you a stomach bug are not going to have the same pandemic risk as wild animals. Impossible? No. Far lower risk than a century ago with subsistence farmers shooting and preparing their own meat? Absolutely.

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JD101
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JD101 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:19 pm

Overall, I would somewhat push back at your claim that we are increasingly eating wild habitats
I'm not saying it is the wild habitat only. I'm saying any animal. Some folks love to debate on wild vs non wild vs sanitation etc. Look at few videos of factory farming how animals are raised from chicken to pig , how they are butchered, antibiotics and they tell me if they find sick animal, they quarantine them. There are not thousands but millions and millions of people eat food, all over the world, they don't eat food once every month, they eat everyday, few times a day. So the sample size is very big. Good luck with that sanitation, testing etc etc and fool proofness. All you need is one mishap among the sample size and the world will face similar music again. I don't see how risk is going down. The risk would go down immediately, if only those who ate such stuff would get such type of virus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Se9yqWN ... e=youtu.be

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watchnerd
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:27 pm

Iridium wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:52 pm
I would be extraordinarily surprised if that was actually increasing.
About 80% of the meat I buy in grocery store is wild mammal game (feral swine, venison, elk, caribou).

It's popular enough in high end grocery stores around here that they keep it permanently stocked.

Prion diseases are the big risk (e.g. chronic wasting disease).
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by Kenkat » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:30 pm

yohac wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:55 pm
JD101 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm
This is worse than a war
Seriously? I'll take this over a war any day.
To quote my old neighbor: This? I was in Vietnam. This is picnic weather!

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watchnerd
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:37 pm

JD101 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm
This is worse than a war
Get a grip, dude.
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JonnyDVM » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:50 pm

We had Spanish Flu a hundred years ago. Does the economy remember that today? No. Memories are short. It will recover. As it always does. It’s just a matter of how deep the cut is and how long the recovery will be.
It’s not “just the flu”. Stop saying that. It’s really annoying. -me

doss
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by doss » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:54 pm

Hope you don’t read about the battle of Stalingrad.

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emlowe
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by emlowe » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:29 pm

An estimated 85 million people died in WW2 - 3% of the total world population.

"Some Russian scholars put the total number of (Russian) losses in the war, both civilian and military, at over 40 million"


1918 Flu: 20+ million deaths
1956-1958 Asian Flu: 2 million deaths
1968 Flu: 1 million deaths

To dig into the 1968 Flu - The Heng Seng was 82.14 in 1965 and dropped to 66.92 by the end of 1967. It ended 1968 at 107.55 gaining 60% during that year - while the flu was ravaging the population.

I think you might need to adjust your perspective.
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FishTaco
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by FishTaco » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:42 am

Mako52 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:36 pm
Singapore is 3.5 times the size of Washington DC, with an affluent, educated, law-abiding population. The per capita GDP is nearly $100k. Remember when the American kid was flogged for spitting gum in public? It's a law and order place. On that note, I don't recall seeing Singaporeans hocking and spitting like I did in China.
Fair enough.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying there aren't other cultural, societal, and economic factors in play- I'm just saying the US can mitigate some of these problems in the future by being actually prepared for something like this.

Decide for yourself: https://www.wired.com/story/singapore-w ... take-note/

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JoeRetire
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JoeRetire » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:58 am

JD101 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:39 pm
This is worse than a war, yeah where much more people die but enemy is known and you can end it when you want or it is only going to last for a finite time.
I completely disagree.
It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | It's the end of the world as we know it. | And I feel fine.

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JD101
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JD101 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:35 pm

An estimated 85 million people died in WW2 - 3% of the total world population.

"Some Russian scholars put the total number of (Russian) losses in the war, both civilian and military, at over 40 million"


1918 Flu: 20+ million deaths
1956-1958 Asian Flu: 2 million deaths
1968 Flu: 1 million deaths

To dig into the 1968 Flu - The Heng Seng was 82.14 in 1965 and dropped to 66.92 by the end of 1967. It ended 1968 at 107.55 gaining 60% during that year - while the flu was ravaging the population.

I think you might need to adjust your perspective.
Some of you are getting fixated on no of deaths. That alone can not be barometer. Imagine if this virus put permanent marks on your face. Would any health care worker even try to help anyone? no matter how much PPE you gave them? What would be a situation in that case as far as chaos & mayhem goes? right now only death is possible for a health care worker if not protected properly and they are not able to recover from it. death is not as bad if the choice is between death and looking like someone threw acid on your face. We are witnessing ever increasing viruses day by day, why would the type of virus I described is far off especially coming from bats, rats, snakes and other wild animals. They are wild for a reason. Death scenario can change very quickly. You haven't seen the mental health issues from this virus yet and guns going off and killing one here and one there, nobody would even notice that but number will be there.

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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:39 pm

JD101 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:35 pm


Some of you are getting fixated on no of deaths. That alone can not be barometer. Imagine if this virus put permanent marks on your face. Would any health care worker even try to help anyone? no matter how much PPE you gave them? What would be a situation in that case as far as chaos & mayhem goes? right now only death is possible for a health care worker if not protected properly and they are not able to recover from it. death is not as bad if the choice is between death and looking like someone threw acid on your face. We are witnessing ever increasing viruses day by day, why would the type of virus I described is far off especially coming from bats, rats, snakes and other wild animals. They are wild for a reason. Death scenario can change very quickly. You haven't seen the mental health issues from this virus yet and guns going off and killing one here and one there, nobody would even notice that but number will be there.

Dude, get a grip.
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JD101
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JD101 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:43 pm

Get a grip on what? Is that the only few words you know? Does it add anything to the discussion, other than some amusement?

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watchnerd
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:45 pm

JD101 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:43 pm
Get a grip on what? Is that the only few words you know? Does it add anything to the discussion, other than some amusement?
Sci-fi meets horror show speculative fan fic is not what I would call a discussion about the market.

Anyone can imagine totally bonkers nightmare scenarios where the right investment strategy is to sell it all and get a cabin in the woods.

But it's a waste of neurons.
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JD101
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by JD101 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm

Why couldn't you say that in the first place? I can reason with that. instead of repeating get a grip for last few days which prompted me to say do you even know any other words.

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watchnerd
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by watchnerd » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:57 pm

JD101 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Why couldn't you say that in the first place? I can reason with that. instead of repeating get a grip for last few days which prompted me to say do you even know any other words.
Because they don't mean the same thing.
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by smitcat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm

JD101 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:35 pm
An estimated 85 million people died in WW2 - 3% of the total world population.

"Some Russian scholars put the total number of (Russian) losses in the war, both civilian and military, at over 40 million"


1918 Flu: 20+ million deaths
1956-1958 Asian Flu: 2 million deaths
1968 Flu: 1 million deaths

To dig into the 1968 Flu - The Heng Seng was 82.14 in 1965 and dropped to 66.92 by the end of 1967. It ended 1968 at 107.55 gaining 60% during that year - while the flu was ravaging the population.

I think you might need to adjust your perspective.
Some of you are getting fixated on no of deaths. That alone can not be barometer. Imagine if this virus put permanent marks on your face. Would any health care worker even try to help anyone? no matter how much PPE you gave them? What would be a situation in that case as far as chaos & mayhem goes? right now only death is possible for a health care worker if not protected properly and they are not able to recover from it. death is not as bad if the choice is between death and looking like someone threw acid on your face. We are witnessing ever increasing viruses day by day, why would the type of virus I described is far off especially coming from bats, rats, snakes and other wild animals. They are wild for a reason. Death scenario can change very quickly. You haven't seen the mental health issues from this virus yet and guns going off and killing one here and one there, nobody would even notice that but number will be there.
Barometer....
Imagine something that kills 500,000 folks in the US every year. Imagine that it also degrades their health and costs the economy huge amounts of funds each year. Now imagine if that was not only correctible but it was a choice that each person makes each and every day....WOW...how big of a problem would that be?
The answer is smoking …. use some perspective and as Watchnerd poetically has posted get a grip.

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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by mega317 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:29 pm

JD101 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:35 pm
Imagine if this virus put permanent marks on your face. Would any health care worker even try to help anyone?
Extraordinarily offensive.
right now only death is possible for a health care worker if not protected properly and they are not able to recover from it.
Very incorrect. You think everyone who gets critically ill bounces back to their previous selves?
We are witnessing ever increasing viruses day by day
You say this over and over again. Please name one other novel virus since MERS.

I don't even know what we're talking about anymore TBH.
You haven't seen the mental health issues from this virus yet
This is very much a concern though I disagree with your next point that no one will notice.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=6212

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emlowe
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Re: Why isn't this time different?

Post by emlowe » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:40 pm

death is not as bad if the choice is between death and looking like someone threw acid on your face
Well, now you are just trolling.

My suggestion - feed your fears and read "The Hot Zone" by Richard Preston
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