Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

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LeftCoastIV
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by LeftCoastIV » Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:28 pm

Thus far in US Stock Market history, there has never been a case in which the market has not eventually reached a new all-time high. Of course this could be different, but there would be no U.S. precedent. How long? Who knows.

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watchnerd
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:12 pm

squirm wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 pm
Rat_Race wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:06 pm
I suppose a similar question would be: Will Japan's Nikkei ever hit 38,915.87 again? Since 1989, that answer so far has been a resounding "no".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... ice_bubble
Yup.
Market can go low and stay low. They can also go low and go even lower, just like Japan.
If you look at the Japanese stock market in local PPP in yen and factor in deflation, it looks quite a bit different.
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by JonnyDVM » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:16 pm

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm
CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:30 pm
Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before.
I’m optimistic. There’s never been such an impetus to make a vaccine for a very specific cold virus before.

The Dow will recover. Eventually. This isn’t the type of pandemic that ends the world. How long? IDK. I think maybe 3 years. But I don’t know much. Could definitely be a lot longer. I would bet anything on an eventual full recovery
It’s not “just the flu”. Stop saying that. It’s really annoying. -me

squirm
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by squirm » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:06 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:12 pm
squirm wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 pm
Rat_Race wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:06 pm
I suppose a similar question would be: Will Japan's Nikkei ever hit 38,915.87 again? Since 1989, that answer so far has been a resounding "no".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... ice_bubble
Yup.
Market can go low and stay low. They can also go low and go even lower, just like Japan.
If you look at the Japanese stock market in local PPP in yen and factor in deflation, it looks quite a bit different.
Good point.



Noticed Japan CDS is spiking.

Capricorn51
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Capricorn51 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:41 am

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm
CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:30 pm
Yes it will. My guesstimate is it will take: (i) a vaccine and (ii) about 2-3 years.
And if a vaccine can't be made? Never heard of a vaccine for coronavirus (common cold) before.
Actually there are animal coronavirus vaccines (for a related virus), e.g. https://www.sheltermedicine.com/library ... s-fip-fcov

Kagord
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Kagord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:45 am

I'm surprised, we're not anywhere near to the point of desperation yet, we are maybe 10%, timewise, into this crisis, and these posts keep coming. You need to slow down, we are still in the wild up and down swings period of uncertainty. The market experts have no history to predict, uncertainty is causing where we are now.

You need to get to the point where you think there is absolutely no hope, I.E. 30%+ unemployment, bankruptcies, housing crisis, inflation, and perceptions that the DOW could go down 50% more, simply salvage what you have. And there simply aren't any buyers and sellers left. Then you are at point like mid 2009, the inflection point, and then you post things like this. Sometimes called capitulation.

I'm not saying the above could happen, I'm saying we don't know, and if it goes there, that's the time to post this.

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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:56 am

anoop wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:04 am
I can see Dow at 100k in about 5-7 years.
:shock: :confused Japan bubble levels of growth?

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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by anoop » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:26 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:56 am
anoop wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:04 am
I can see Dow at 100k in about 5-7 years.
:shock: :confused Japan bubble levels of growth?
It’s the only way pension funds stay solvent.

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protagonist
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by protagonist » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:15 am

Will the Dow hit 29500 again?

This is an unanswerable question.
It was also unanswerable the day the Dow hit 29500 before the crisis.
Just as unanswerable as "Will it go down to 10K?" "Will it hit 100K?" "Will it ever hit a million?"
I don't know why you would want to seek the opinions of random strangers (or experts, for that matter). Nobody has a clue.

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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Dottie57 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:26 am

Montgomery wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:27 pm
Yes, unless all business activity stops forever and the human heart is suddenly devoid of ambition. Barring those two or a nuclear disaster globally, the markets will rise again.
+1

Desire for goods and services will always be alive.

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UpsetRaptor
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by UpsetRaptor » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:26 am

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:16 pm
Rat_Race wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:06 pm
I suppose a similar question would be: Will Japan's Nikkei ever hit 38,915.87 again? Since 1989, that answer so far has been a resounding "no".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... ice_bubble
What was the p/e ratio of the nikkei at its peak?
Japan's CAPE in 1989 peaked at 93, which is absolutely crazy. For comparison, if that price multiple were to suddenly apply to the US market today, the S&P would be around 10,000.

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tvubpwcisla
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by tvubpwcisla » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:35 am

Absolutely. I think we will cross 30,000 within the next few years. :moneybag
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knpstr
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by knpstr » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:09 pm

Sir John Templeton once said that he thought the Dow will have hit 1,000,000 by 2100. (that isn't a very aggressive CAGR at all about 4.9%)

Stay invested my friends. :beer
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new2bogle
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by new2bogle » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:58 pm

Of course.

(you didn't ask when :D )

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sperry8
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by sperry8 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:04 pm

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm
And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
Think of it rationally. The market is (was) down 34% from all time high. That means we need a 50% rise to get to even. In an average bull market the market rises ~17% per year. Assuming that was the bottom we get back to all time highs (on average) in 3 years. Assuming it was not the low, and a new low is to be made... we may need a 4th year to get back to even from that unknown future date. So we are looking at 3-4 years, perhaps 5 depending on when the final low is made.
BH contest results: 2019: #233 of 645 | 18: #150 of 493 | 17: #516 of 647 | 16: #121 of 610 | 15: #18 of 552 | 14: #225 of 503 | 13: #383 of 433 | 12: #366 of 410 | 11: #113 of 369 | 10: #53 of 282

alfaspider
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by alfaspider » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:20 pm

sperry8 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:04 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm
And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
Think of it rationally. The market is (was) down 34% from all time high. That means we need a 50% rise to get to even. In an average bull market the market rises ~17% per year. Assuming that was the bottom we get back to all time highs (on average) in 3 years. Assuming it was not the low, and a new low is to be made... we may need a 4th year to get back to even from that unknown future date. So we are looking at 3-4 years, perhaps 5 depending on when the final low is made.
You are thinking about it too linearly. You typically don't see a steady 17% year after year in a bull. Extreme drawdowns have also been met by extreme upswings. For example 1933-34 saw real returns in the 65% range. 50% could occur within a year if the shutdowns end sooner than expected. Remember that we are mostly still in the stage of a predicted calamity rather than one that has actually occurred. I don't doubt the legitimacy and seriousness of the expert predictions of what will happen, but even the experts have a very wide divergence in terms of predicted outcomes.

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Devil's Advocate
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Devil's Advocate » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:00 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:38 pm
Can you imagine a world in which we can't cure the cold virus?

Utter chaos. Permanently low stock market.

Cats and dogs, living together.
Hilarious!

My cats and dog love each other already...sure sign of end of times

DA

konic
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by konic » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:06 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:38 pm
Can you imagine a world in which we can't cure the cold virus?

Utter chaos. Permanently low stock market.

Cats and dogs, living together.
:D This is hilarious :mrgreen:

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happymob
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by happymob » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:07 pm

I was promised Dow 40,000 all the way back in 1999. Still waiting on that one.

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JonnyDVM
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by JonnyDVM » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:06 pm

squirm wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:06 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:12 pm
squirm wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:15 pm
Rat_Race wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:06 pm
I suppose a similar question would be: Will Japan's Nikkei ever hit 38,915.87 again? Since 1989, that answer so far has been a resounding "no".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_ ... ice_bubble
Yup.
Market can go low and stay low. They can also go low and go even lower, just like Japan.
If you look at the Japanese stock market in local PPP in yen and factor in deflation, it looks quite a bit different.
Good point.



Noticed Japan CDS is spiking.
“Ever” is a long time. The Japanese market will eventually hit 38,195 again.
It’s not “just the flu”. Stop saying that. It’s really annoying. -me

Enzo IX
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Enzo IX » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:26 pm

It better or us buy and hold people are in trouble.

rockthisworld
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by rockthisworld » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:59 am

smitcat wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:47 am
hagridshut wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm
Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes - those and when all posts about FIRE, 4% is a safe draw, and 100% stock portfolios have not been updated in weeks.
I still plan to use 4.4 withdrawal rate over a projected 20 year retirement. I’m still 100% stock and currently buying continuously dollar cost.

No I don’t plan to be a millionaire, and honestly I use a 1.2% real return (nominal return-inflation) in my calculations. And I also plan to work until 70. I enjoy what I do and want to keep doing it as long as possible. If it turns out I’m way too bearish and we are closer to average returns I could always go to part time work earlier than 70.

But I am slightly bearish so nonetheless 1.2% real cagr, 4.4 wr, sticking 100% stock and then going 50/50 in retirement but have the 50% in stocks, 40% cds, 10% cash until I’m done needing it.

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sperry8
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by sperry8 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:42 am

alfaspider wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:20 pm
sperry8 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:04 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm
And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
Think of it rationally. The market is (was) down 34% from all time high. That means we need a 50% rise to get to even. In an average bull market the market rises ~17% per year. Assuming that was the bottom we get back to all time highs (on average) in 3 years. Assuming it was not the low, and a new low is to be made... we may need a 4th year to get back to even from that unknown future date. So we are looking at 3-4 years, perhaps 5 depending on when the final low is made.
You are thinking about it too linearly. You typically don't see a steady 17% year after year in a bull. Extreme drawdowns have also been met by extreme upswings. For example 1933-34 saw real returns in the 65% range. 50% could occur within a year if the shutdowns end sooner than expected. Remember that we are mostly still in the stage of a predicted calamity rather than one that has actually occurred. I don't doubt the legitimacy and seriousness of the expert predictions of what will happen, but even the experts have a very wide divergence in terms of predicted outcomes.
I am showing averages. And averages tend to hold over time. Of course we won't see any year with an actual +17%. But on average over time that is exactly what we will see. I'm simply making the point that we of course will see 29500 on the DOW again (per OPs question) and an approximation (on average) of when we may expect to achieve it.
BH contest results: 2019: #233 of 645 | 18: #150 of 493 | 17: #516 of 647 | 16: #121 of 610 | 15: #18 of 552 | 14: #225 of 503 | 13: #383 of 433 | 12: #366 of 410 | 11: #113 of 369 | 10: #53 of 282

smitcat
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by smitcat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:59 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:59 am
smitcat wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:47 am
hagridshut wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm
Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes - those and when all posts about FIRE, 4% is a safe draw, and 100% stock portfolios have not been updated in weeks.
I still plan to use 4.4 withdrawal rate over a projected 20 year retirement. I’m still 100% stock and currently buying continuously dollar cost.

No I don’t plan to be a millionaire, and honestly I use a 1.2% real return (nominal return-inflation) in my calculations. And I also plan to work until 70. I enjoy what I do and want to keep doing it as long as possible. If it turns out I’m way too bearish and we are closer to average returns I could always go to part time work earlier than 70.

But I am slightly bearish so nonetheless 1.2% real cagr, 4.4 wr, sticking 100% stock and then going 50/50 in retirement but have the 50% in stocks, 40% cds, 10% cash until I’m done needing it.
How old are you now?

DB2
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by DB2 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:07 am

We will will 29,500 again, but I prefer to look at global market cap weighting. That makes the Dow less relevant vs being 100% U.S. stock.

alfaspider
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by alfaspider » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:07 am

sperry8 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:42 am
alfaspider wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:20 pm
sperry8 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:04 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm
And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
Think of it rationally. The market is (was) down 34% from all time high. That means we need a 50% rise to get to even. In an average bull market the market rises ~17% per year. Assuming that was the bottom we get back to all time highs (on average) in 3 years. Assuming it was not the low, and a new low is to be made... we may need a 4th year to get back to even from that unknown future date. So we are looking at 3-4 years, perhaps 5 depending on when the final low is made.
You are thinking about it too linearly. You typically don't see a steady 17% year after year in a bull. Extreme drawdowns have also been met by extreme upswings. For example 1933-34 saw real returns in the 65% range. 50% could occur within a year if the shutdowns end sooner than expected. Remember that we are mostly still in the stage of a predicted calamity rather than one that has actually occurred. I don't doubt the legitimacy and seriousness of the expert predictions of what will happen, but even the experts have a very wide divergence in terms of predicted outcomes.
I am showing averages. And averages tend to hold over time. Of course we won't see any year with an actual +17%. But on average over time that is exactly what we will see. I'm simply making the point that we of course will see 29500 on the DOW again (per OPs question) and an approximation (on average) of when we may expect to achieve it.
Right, but my point is that the average isn't really average. Yes, averaged over decades that +17% holds, but there has been wide variation in recovery times from similar drawdowns. The median isn't really helpful with a small sample size that has a lot of variation.

It's like putting a homeless person and a billionaire together in a same room and declaring that the average net worth in the room is a half billion dollars. Technically true, but not particularly useful or informative.

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sperry8
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by sperry8 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:47 am

alfaspider wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:07 am
sperry8 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:42 am
alfaspider wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:20 pm
sperry8 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:04 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm
And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
Think of it rationally. The market is (was) down 34% from all time high. That means we need a 50% rise to get to even. In an average bull market the market rises ~17% per year. Assuming that was the bottom we get back to all time highs (on average) in 3 years. Assuming it was not the low, and a new low is to be made... we may need a 4th year to get back to even from that unknown future date. So we are looking at 3-4 years, perhaps 5 depending on when the final low is made.
You are thinking about it too linearly. You typically don't see a steady 17% year after year in a bull. Extreme drawdowns have also been met by extreme upswings. For example 1933-34 saw real returns in the 65% range. 50% could occur within a year if the shutdowns end sooner than expected. Remember that we are mostly still in the stage of a predicted calamity rather than one that has actually occurred. I don't doubt the legitimacy and seriousness of the expert predictions of what will happen, but even the experts have a very wide divergence in terms of predicted outcomes.
I am showing averages. And averages tend to hold over time. Of course we won't see any year with an actual +17%. But on average over time that is exactly what we will see. I'm simply making the point that we of course will see 29500 on the DOW again (per OPs question) and an approximation (on average) of when we may expect to achieve it.
Right, but my point is that the average isn't really average. Yes, averaged over decades that +17% holds, but there has been wide variation in recovery times from similar drawdowns. The median isn't really helpful with a small sample size that has a lot of variation.

It's like putting a homeless person and a billionaire together in a same room and declaring that the average net worth in the room is a half billion dollars. Technically true, but not particularly useful or informative.
I hear your point but disagree about your timeline. The bull market of the past 10 years averaged ~17%. Just like former bulls. The next bull should prove no different and it won't take a long timeline to make the average true.
BH contest results: 2019: #233 of 645 | 18: #150 of 493 | 17: #516 of 647 | 16: #121 of 610 | 15: #18 of 552 | 14: #225 of 503 | 13: #383 of 433 | 12: #366 of 410 | 11: #113 of 369 | 10: #53 of 282

nguy44
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by nguy44 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:49 am

June 14,2023. You heard it here first. :mrgreen:

rockthisworld
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by rockthisworld » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:32 pm

smitcat wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:59 am
rockthisworld wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:59 am
smitcat wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:47 am
hagridshut wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm
Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes - those and when all posts about FIRE, 4% is a safe draw, and 100% stock portfolios have not been updated in weeks.
I still plan to use 4.4 withdrawal rate over a projected 20 year retirement. I’m still 100% stock and currently buying continuously dollar cost.

No I don’t plan to be a millionaire, and honestly I use a 1.2% real return (nominal return-inflation) in my calculations. And I also plan to work until 70. I enjoy what I do and want to keep doing it as long as possible. If it turns out I’m way too bearish and we are closer to average returns I could always go to part time work earlier than 70.

But I am slightly bearish so nonetheless 1.2% real cagr, 4.4 wr, sticking 100% stock and then going 50/50 in retirement but have the 50% in stocks, 40% cds, 10% cash until I’m done needing it.
How old are you now?
28 turning 29.

mroe800
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by mroe800 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:41 am

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm
And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?
At this week’s pace? By mid second week of April.

phantom0308
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by phantom0308 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:41 am

If the world is just then the Dow will succumb to COVID-19 and we can all use sensible indices like S&P500 or Russell 2000.

smitcat
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Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by smitcat » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:13 am

rockthisworld wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:32 pm
smitcat wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:59 am
rockthisworld wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:59 am
smitcat wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:47 am
hagridshut wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm
Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.

Are forum stats as far as volume of posts/day available?
Yes - those and when all posts about FIRE, 4% is a safe draw, and 100% stock portfolios have not been updated in weeks.
I still plan to use 4.4 withdrawal rate over a projected 20 year retirement. I’m still 100% stock and currently buying continuously dollar cost.

No I don’t plan to be a millionaire, and honestly I use a 1.2% real return (nominal return-inflation) in my calculations. And I also plan to work until 70. I enjoy what I do and want to keep doing it as long as possible. If it turns out I’m way too bearish and we are closer to average returns I could always go to part time work earlier than 70.

But I am slightly bearish so nonetheless 1.2% real cagr, 4.4 wr, sticking 100% stock and then going 50/50 in retirement but have the 50% in stocks, 40% cds, 10% cash until I’m done needing it.
How old are you now?
28 turning 29.
At 29 I suspect that there will be many occasions and many changes in life that will more than likely change these parameters..."And I also plan to work until 70. I enjoy what I do and want to keep doing it as long as possible"
Please do not plan on working till 70 and enjoying what you for a huge number of years based on a snapshot at 29.
FWIW - I would say the same thing if you had said you were 49.

smitcat
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Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:51 am

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by smitcat » Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:13 am

mroe800 wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:41 am
justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm
And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?
At this week’s pace? By mid second week of April.
The week is not over yet.

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Bluce
Posts: 849
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 11:01 pm
Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by Bluce » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:34 am

smitcat wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:13 am
At 29 I suspect that there will be many occasions and many changes in life that will more than likely change these parameters..."And I also plan to work until 70. I enjoy what I do and want to keep doing it as long as possible"
Please do not plan on working till 70 and enjoying what you for a huge number of years based on a snapshot at 29.
FWIW - I would say the same thing if you had said you were 49.
Excellent point, that no one should forget.

FWIW: I'm self-employed, will be 70 in August, still working -- not because I have to, but because I enjoy it.

However, I had some serious health problems (including cancer) in the past ten years, and thought I might have to retire. It turned out otherwise, but no one should discount the possibility of health problems -- way in the future -- that might change your life in very negative ways.

The old adage rang true for me: "When you have your health, you have everything."

On top of that, what smacked me in the face was the reality that when you have serious health problems, EVERYTHING else in life becomes secondary.

:sharebeer
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

seawolf21
Posts: 439
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2014 7:33 am

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by seawolf21 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:55 am

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:28 pm
And if so, how long til we get back to the peak? Seems like if it keeps dropping significantly the harder it will be to get back to peqk levels. 10 years?

I'm pretty bummed that I only started to max out retirement accounts the last few years at all time highs and might not be able to contribute at the lows if I am out of a job.
If anybody can be certain when, they would be on the #1 spot on Forbes Trillionaire list.

jasperhobbs
Posts: 21
Joined: Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:41 pm

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by jasperhobbs » Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:06 am

The DOW will recover and probably set new highs down the road. As stated, it might take 3-5 years. As far as coronavirus, a vaccine or remedy will happen. Just look at history.

Bovine anger management classes calmed mad cow disease and chicken noodle soup fed to pigs eradicated the swine flu. Something will be found for this virus.

We are in for a bumpy ride but things will get better. At least I hope so.

mroe800
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:37 am

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Post by mroe800 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:03 am

jasperhobbs wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:06 am
Bovine anger management classes calmed mad cow disease and chicken noodle soup fed to pigs eradicated the swine flu. Something will be found for this virus.
Masterclass post right here folks.

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