Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

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yoyo6713
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by yoyo6713 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:12 am

Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:28 am
yoyo6713 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:27 pm
I think when Wuhan was sealed off later half of Jan, I saw/read some complains that funds were not allowed to sell. Chinese market seemed to be mispriced or artifically propped up. When u.s. economy shrinks, there won't be many orders for the Chinese companies to fullfil.
Exports are under 20% of Chinese GDP. Exports to the US are under 20% of total Chinese exports. That leaves a whole lot of orders to fill even if the US goes to zero.
What about europe etc? The impact was not restricted to U.S. only.

Seasonal
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Seasonal » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:19 am

yoyo6713 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:12 am
Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:28 am
yoyo6713 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:27 pm
I think when Wuhan was sealed off later half of Jan, I saw/read some complains that funds were not allowed to sell. Chinese market seemed to be mispriced or artifically propped up. When u.s. economy shrinks, there won't be many orders for the Chinese companies to fullfil.
Exports are under 20% of Chinese GDP. Exports to the US are under 20% of total Chinese exports. That leaves a whole lot of orders to fill even if the US goes to zero.
What about europe etc? The impact was not restricted to U.S. only.
Your post mentioned the US, so I responded about the US. For the rest of the world, see earlier posts in this thread, such as my posts at viewtopic.php?p=5116169#p5116169 and viewtopic.php?p=5116760#p5116760

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gmaynardkrebs
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by gmaynardkrebs » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:20 am

fennewaldaj wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:41 am
Isn't the Chinese stock markets performance a simple case of it is able to more accurately price in the exact damage of the Chinese response because it has likely mostly already happened. The US and European response still has to play out so there is a lot more uncertainty in how it could go. And yeah the Chinese central bank being able to buy stocks likely helps some.
This is a worldwide depression. Even making the assumption that the disease is "over" in China, how China fares going forward is directly linked to what happens everywhere else.

columbia
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by columbia » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 am

As always, one should never assume that publicly available information on the Chinese economy and markets is in any way an accurate indicator of the future of either.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

yoyo6713
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by yoyo6713 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:04 am

columbia wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 am
As always, one should never assume that publicly available information on the Chinese economy and markets is in any way an accurate indicator of the future of either.
That I agree.

I followed Chinese weibo from Mid Jan around the clock and saw tons and tons of posts were deleted. The official death numbers cannot be real. The real number likely is 10 X of the official numbers. majority of the unfortunate in Wuhan died at home and were cremated immediately so they didn't go into the official tally.

yoyo6713
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by yoyo6713 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:05 am

Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:19 am
yoyo6713 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:12 am
Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:28 am
yoyo6713 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:27 pm
I think when Wuhan was sealed off later half of Jan, I saw/read some complains that funds were not allowed to sell. Chinese market seemed to be mispriced or artifically propped up. When u.s. economy shrinks, there won't be many orders for the Chinese companies to fullfil.
Exports are under 20% of Chinese GDP. Exports to the US are under 20% of total Chinese exports. That leaves a whole lot of orders to fill even if the US goes to zero.
What about europe etc? The impact was not restricted to U.S. only.
Your post mentioned the US, so I responded about the US. For the rest of the world, see earlier posts in this thread, such as my posts at viewtopic.php?p=5116169#p5116169 and viewtopic.php?p=5116760#p5116760
Ah I see. I supposed they can keep building real estate and hope people keep on buying.
Last edited by yoyo6713 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

columbia
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by columbia » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:06 am

yoyo6713 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:04 am
columbia wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 am
As always, one should never assume that publicly available information on the Chinese economy and markets is in any way an accurate indicator of the future of either.
That I agree.

I followed Chinese weibo from Mid Jan around the clock and saw tons and tons of posts were deleted. The official death numbers cannot be real. The real number likely is 10 X of the official numbers. majority of the unfortunate in Wuhan died at home and were cremated immediately so they didn't go into the official tally.
Wow. That’s awful.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

Seasonal
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Seasonal » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:29 am

yoyo6713 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:05 am
Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:19 am
yoyo6713 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:12 am
Seasonal wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:28 am
yoyo6713 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:27 pm
I think when Wuhan was sealed off later half of Jan, I saw/read some complains that funds were not allowed to sell. Chinese market seemed to be mispriced or artifically propped up. When u.s. economy shrinks, there won't be many orders for the Chinese companies to fullfil.
Exports are under 20% of Chinese GDP. Exports to the US are under 20% of total Chinese exports. That leaves a whole lot of orders to fill even if the US goes to zero.
What about europe etc? The impact was not restricted to U.S. only.
Your post mentioned the US, so I responded about the US. For the rest of the world, see earlier posts in this thread, such as my posts at viewtopic.php?p=5116169#p5116169 and viewtopic.php?p=5116760#p5116760
Ah I see. I supposed they can keep building real estate and hope people keep on buying.
Construction is about 7% of Chinese GDP.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Corsair » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:46 am

columbia wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:06 am
yoyo6713 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:04 am
columbia wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 am
As always, one should never assume that publicly available information on the Chinese economy and markets is in any way an accurate indicator of the future of either.
That I agree.

I followed Chinese weibo from Mid Jan around the clock and saw tons and tons of posts were deleted. The official death numbers cannot be real. The real number likely is 10 X of the official numbers. majority of the unfortunate in Wuhan died at home and were cremated immediately so they didn't go into the official tally.
Wow. That’s awful.
Another interesting note is two of the three largest telecommunication companies in China recorded record losses in mobile customers in February. Approx. 12M lost mobile subscriptions. The largest loss ever was 1.8M in 2014. I haven't seen reasons why; could be people leaving the country.
Last edited by Corsair on Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

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watchnerd
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by watchnerd » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am

Corsair wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:46 am

Another interesting note is two of the three largest telecommunication companies in China recorded record losses in mobile customers in February. Approx. 12M lost mobile subscriptions. The largest loss ever was 1.8M in 2014.
I have a Taiwanese coworker who says that's from dead customers.

Which seems on the far end of the conspiracy spectrum to me....
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by fennewaldaj » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:22 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am
Corsair wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:46 am

Another interesting note is two of the three largest telecommunication companies in China recorded record losses in mobile customers in February. Approx. 12M lost mobile subscriptions. The largest loss ever was 1.8M in 2014.
I have a Taiwanese coworker who says that's from dead customers.

Which seems on the far end of the conspiracy spectrum to me....
Yeah its probably mostly just people who couldn't afford it anymore.

HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:58 pm

Can we get this thread locked please?

The kind of nonsense being spewn about here can give reddit a run for its money.

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watchnerd
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by watchnerd » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:23 pm

fennewaldaj wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:22 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am
Corsair wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:46 am

Another interesting note is two of the three largest telecommunication companies in China recorded record losses in mobile customers in February. Approx. 12M lost mobile subscriptions. The largest loss ever was 1.8M in 2014.
I have a Taiwanese coworker who says that's from dead customers.

Which seems on the far end of the conspiracy spectrum to me....
Yeah its probably mostly just people who couldn't afford it anymore.
That seems more logical.

People who may be out of work.
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Seasonal
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Seasonal » Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:52 am

Today's WSJ:
China’s millions of individual investors have been pouring money into stocks, confident that Beijing has mastered the coronavirus crisis and that cheap money, state spending and lighter regulation will produce a new boom.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by nisiprius » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am

I'm experiencing some difficulty bridging the gap between the numbers for China: population 1.3 billion, 81,498 “confirmed” cases, only 82 “confirmed new cases,” and 3,267 total deaths; and the estimates seemingly-credible epidemiologists have been putting out that about 40-70% of the world's population will ultimately be infected (most asymptomatic or mildly). The epidemiologists saying this seem to be credible, mainstream people (Marc Lipsitch of Harvard School of Public Health), not way out nutcases.

What do we make of this? China has it contained? China can plan on the totals staying where they are?

Or are the epidemiologists grimly projecting that now that it is worldwide it is uncontainable, and that China (and Italy and the US) will just keep experiencing fresh new outbreaks, some of which will be contained and some of which won't, each adding a five-digit number for cases and a four-digit number for deaths?

Obviously, China can survive and recover from, dare I say "only" 3,267 deaths (about the same as 9/11), but 1.3 billion x 40% x 1% mortality is staggering, even if you cut it down to reflect better treatment and management as time goes on.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

Seasonal
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Seasonal » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:00 am

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am
What do we make of this? China has it contained? China can plan on the totals staying where they are?
Acting relatively early and decisively seems to help. The longer the wait to react and the weaker the reaction the worse it can get. Perhaps a culture of wearing masks helps? Perhaps there's something about Asian physiology or culture - the countries that are doing the best are in Asia. Perhaps random chance. See the charts at https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics ... -hong-kong

Who knows what the future will bring.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by glorat » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:05 pm

I've generally avoided these non-investment topics but since you're a mod...

I've lived in China through this whole ordeal and can answer
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am
I'm experiencing some difficulty bridging the gap between the numbers for China: population 1.3 billion, 81,498 “confirmed” cases, only 82 “confirmed new cases,” and 3,267 total deaths;
.
Not sure what the gap is but there are now less than 6000 active cases across China, mostly in Wuhan still. Of the total confirmed cases you mention, 73k recovered and 3k died.


All of the 82 cases are from people flying into the country. All arrivals are traced and subject to 14 day home quarantine regardless of any symptoms. That's how spread is prevented
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am


What do we make of this? China has it contained? China can plan on the totals staying where they are?
Yes, China, South Korea and Singapore have things contained in the sense that every single new case has been traced to source (mostly imports from flights) and no community spread.

The primary concern is stopping new community spread caused by imports, which is what had happened in Hong Kong causing it to go back into lock down.

What makes these countries unique is their ability to detect, isolate and trace every single new case.

What makes China unique is that they didn't just lock down Wuhan or Hubei. They actually locked down the entire country. Only recently is life returning to some semblance of normality for me now that there is no community spread.
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am
Or are the epidemiologists grimly projecting that now that it is worldwide it is uncontainable, and that China (and Italy and the US) will just keep experiencing fresh new outbreaks, some of which will be contained and some of which won't, each adding a five-digit number for cases and a four-digit number for deaths?
Yes there will be new outbreaks but the size depend on the effectiveness of detect/isolate/trace. Watch Hong 's current response to the second wave new outbreak.
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am
Obviously, China can survive and recover from, dare I say "only" 3,267 deaths (about the same as 9/11), but 1.3 billion x 40% x 1% mortality is staggering, even if you cut it down to reflect better treatment and management as time goes on.
China's strategy is full suppression, whatever the cost. Other countries may look to build up herd immunity since they can't control it anyway

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Mr.Wu » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:40 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:23 pm
fennewaldaj wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:22 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:48 am
Corsair wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:46 am

Another interesting note is two of the three largest telecommunication companies in China recorded record losses in mobile customers in February. Approx. 12M lost mobile subscriptions. The largest loss ever was 1.8M in 2014.
I have a Taiwanese coworker who says that's from dead customers.

Which seems on the far end of the conspiracy spectrum to me....
Yeah its probably mostly just people who couldn't afford it anymore.
That seems more logical.

People who may be out of work.
As of year end of 2019, the three major China telecom companies reported in total 1.6 billion users. Chinese population is "only" 1.4 billion and a big chunk of it are children (without cell phones). It is a fact that many Chinese own multiple cell phone accounts, especially these businessmen with frequent traveling need and college kids who attended schools out of province. Mostly because in history a high roaming fee was charged for out-of-province usage of data/voice/message. This fee was just lifted not very long ago and the multiple-phone "culture" seems to have maintained its momentum. During a nationwide quarantine, people suspend the extra accounts when they won't be needed for months.

People don't understand what 10 million of deaths mean.

jpmorganfunds
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by jpmorganfunds » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:21 pm

Chinese stocks were up again today while the rest of the market were down.

typical.investor
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by typical.investor » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:59 am

glorat wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:05 pm
I've generally avoided these non-investment topics but since you're a mod...

I've lived in China through this whole ordeal and can answer
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am
I'm experiencing some difficulty bridging the gap between the numbers for China: population 1.3 billion, 81,498 “confirmed” cases, only 82 “confirmed new cases,” and 3,267 total deaths;
.
Not sure what the gap is but there are now less than 6000 active cases across China, mostly in Wuhan still. Of the total confirmed cases you mention, 73k recovered and 3k died.


All of the 82 cases are from people flying into the country. All arrivals are traced and subject to 14 day home quarantine regardless of any symptoms. That's how spread is prevented
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am


What do we make of this? China has it contained? China can plan on the totals staying where they are?
Yes, China, South Korea and Singapore have things contained in the sense that every single new case has been traced to source (mostly imports from flights) and no community spread.

The primary concern is stopping new community spread caused by imports, which is what had happened in Hong Kong causing it to go back into lock down.

What makes these countries unique is their ability to detect, isolate and trace every single new case.

What makes China unique is that they didn't just lock down Wuhan or Hubei. They actually locked down the entire country. Only recently is life returning to some semblance of normality for me now that there is no community spread.
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am
Or are the epidemiologists grimly projecting that now that it is worldwide it is uncontainable, and that China (and Italy and the US) will just keep experiencing fresh new outbreaks, some of which will be contained and some of which won't, each adding a five-digit number for cases and a four-digit number for deaths?
Yes there will be new outbreaks but the size depend on the effectiveness of detect/isolate/trace. Watch Hong 's current response to the second wave new outbreak.
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am
Obviously, China can survive and recover from, dare I say "only" 3,267 deaths (about the same as 9/11), but 1.3 billion x 40% x 1% mortality is staggering, even if you cut it down to reflect better treatment and management as time goes on.
China's strategy is full suppression, whatever the cost. Other countries may look to build up herd immunity since they can't control it anyway
Japan has 900 cases and 49 deaths. Population 137 million and many, many elderly. Some large gathers (schools) were closed but Tokyo has never been shut down. Restaurants are open and busy, and you can go where and do what you want. Sure, Japan barely tests so the numbers of cases are low, but we don't see any indication that it's more widespread looking at deaths or very ill people in the hospital.

Probably the biggest difference between Japan and most of the rest of the world is that Japanese people regularly wear masks. Not N95, but just ones to maybe catch pollen or catch sneezes. I think that is the biggest thing. I mean the bus driver and tour guide who caught coronovirus from Wuhan tourists early on immediately started using masks which likely contained their contaminated droplets. Of course the germs can be aerosolized which the cheap masks don't filter, but research to date I think has shown that aerosolized coronavirus particles are not driving transmission.

It's not known who is infected, so I think the preventive measure of a mask (even when not symptomatic) has likely resulted in the low numbers. Hong Kong is the only place I know that rivals Japan in terms of wearing masks, and their numbers are low too.

Thus, maybe smaller Japanese domestic businesses will do better from not being shutdown. Most bigger one are tied into Globalization though, so they will probably suffer like everyplace else.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by finley » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:55 pm

There is no conspiracy theory. Once the daily new case curve flattened, the worst of the virus is behind. So the market responds appropriately. The daily new cases peaked around February 3rd-5th. The market bottom out at this same time.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Atilla » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:57 pm

I look at this and see the attempts by the Chinese government to deny and hide the problem (and place blame elsewhere) until it got out of control. I see the worldwide destruction of income and wealth as a result of their government's actions.

I can't believe the Chinese economy will not be made to pay a price as a result going forward. Other economies will think twice after all this unnecessary economic wreckage and plan accordingly.
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:01 pm

Atilla wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:57 pm
I look at this and see the attempts by the Chinese government to deny and hide the problem (and place blame elsewhere) until it got out of control. I see the worldwide destruction of income and wealth as a result of their government's actions.

I can't believe the Chinese economy will not be made to pay a price as a result going forward. Other economies will think twice after all this unnecessary economic wreckage and plan accordingly.
I expect de-coupling to be accelerated, regardless of political context, for risk mitigation and supply chain contingency reasons.
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by columbia » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:02 pm

Atilla wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:57 pm
I look at this and see the attempts by the Chinese government to deny and hide the problem (and place blame elsewhere) until it got out of control. I see the worldwide destruction of income and wealth as a result of their government's actions.

I can't believe the Chinese economy will not be made to pay a price as a result going forward. Other economies will think twice after all this unnecessary economic wreckage and plan accordingly.

Please define “unnecessary.”

Also: a different trade arrangement wouldn’t have stopped the spread of the virus.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Seasonal » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:09 pm

columbia wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:02 pm
Atilla wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:57 pm
I look at this and see the attempts by the Chinese government to deny and hide the problem (and place blame elsewhere) until it got out of control. I see the worldwide destruction of income and wealth as a result of their government's actions.

I can't believe the Chinese economy will not be made to pay a price as a result going forward. Other economies will think twice after all this unnecessary economic wreckage and plan accordingly.

Please define “unnecessary.”

Also: a different trade arrangement wouldn’t have stopped the spread of the virus.
Some countries figured out there were problems early. For example, reportedly US intelligence agencies were warning there could be a terrible problems in January and February.

More competent responses by some countries have mainly stopped the spread of the virus. At some point, governments have to take personal responsibility for their own actions (or failures to act).

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by columbia » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:12 pm

Oh, I have plenty of opinions on the US response, but not for this forum...
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by typical.investor » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:25 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:09 pm
columbia wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:02 pm
Atilla wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:57 pm
I look at this and see the attempts by the Chinese government to deny and hide the problem (and place blame elsewhere) until it got out of control. I see the worldwide destruction of income and wealth as a result of their government's actions.

I can't believe the Chinese economy will not be made to pay a price as a result going forward. Other economies will think twice after all this unnecessary economic wreckage and plan accordingly.

Please define “unnecessary.”

Also: a different trade arrangement wouldn’t have stopped the spread of the virus.
Some countries figured out there were problems early. For example, reportedly US intelligence agencies were warning there could be a terrible problems in January and February.

More competent responses by some countries have mainly stopped the spread of the virus. At some point, governments have to take personal responsibility for their own actions (or failures to act).
Instead of blaming China or Governments for failure to act, people should be questioning their own behavior.

In places where low infection rates occur, I think you will find a majority of people wearing masks which prevents the spread of droplets. And no these are not N95 masks.

Just watch CNN news about how to cough - into your sleeve they advise? A mask works much better and if everyone wears them early, you won't have the carriers out and about sneezing, coughing.

I really scratch my head at the PHDs in biology who say you don't need a mask unless your are symptomatic. I say look at the common denominator of countries with low transmission rates. It isn't draconian government action. It's masks. We know they catch droplets even if they don't catch aerosolized germs which seems by WHO testing to definitely be a secondary at best transmission route.

Anyway, sure it's possible companies pull out of China and that gets reflected in the general economy and stock returns. And it's possible that a country like Japan does better because their domestic economy hasn't shut down the way other places have. It's impossible to say though and I wouldn't change allocation on any of these things.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Seasonal » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:25 pm

A problem with masks is the severe shortage in the US. The government's failure to invoke the DPA and ramping up production contributes to that.

China, and much of Asia, has lots of masks.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by typical.investor » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:54 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:25 pm
A problem with masks is the severe shortage in the US. The government's failure to invoke the DPA and ramping up production contributes to that.

China, and much of Asia, has lots of masks.
And even if the US had more than enough, do you see people on the NY or SF metros wearing them out of precaution?

Even with an abundance of mask handed away for free, I wonder how many would actually wear them and what would happen to them after use. Doesn't the MTA in New York haul out as much as 40 tons of garbage on a daily basis and I don't think that counts what gets in trash cans.

10-20% of people wearing them and other people spraying out droplets when they sneeze or cough might not do enough to catch the asymtomatic carriers.

But maybe some companies will require the practice, and maybe clusters of cases will be reduced at those employers. So maybe US stocks can recover quicker as people can work. Again, I am not changing allocation based on any of this. It's all too uncertain.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:53 pm

Curious if any of the China haters here are now going to pull out of the US markets now that the Fed is going to directly buy up corporate securities.

No? Why not? Isn’t this clear government manipulation of the markets?

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:59 pm

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:53 pm
Curious if any of the China haters here are now going to pull out of the US markets now that the Fed is going to directly buy up corporate securities.

No? Why not? Isn’t this clear government manipulation of the markets?
It is.

But there has always been government manipulation in the markets since at least WWII.
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HEDGEFUNDIE
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:35 am

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:59 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:53 pm
Curious if any of the China haters here are now going to pull out of the US markets now that the Fed is going to directly buy up corporate securities.

No? Why not? Isn’t this clear government manipulation of the markets?
It is.

But there has always been government manipulation in the markets since at least WWII.
Bingo.

More importantly who cares if there is government intervention, as long as it makes you money. Amiright?

mroe800
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by mroe800 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:24 am

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:35 am
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:59 pm
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:53 pm
Curious if any of the China haters here are now going to pull out of the US markets now that the Fed is going to directly buy up corporate securities.

No? Why not? Isn’t this clear government manipulation of the markets?
It is.

But there has always been government manipulation in the markets since at least WWII.
Bingo.

More importantly who cares if there is government intervention, as long as it makes you money. Amiright?
Cold got to be!

columbia
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by columbia » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:15 am

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:53 pm
Curious if any of the China haters here are now going to pull out of the US markets now that the Fed is going to directly buy up corporate securities.

No? Why not? Isn’t this clear government manipulation of the markets?
If the idea is that today’s prices are not reflective of the reality of coming shakeout of the economy, then I probably agree. That’s an argument for not buying stocks right now; not an argument for buying outside of the US. ie Folks buying VTI should prepare for continued losses. It’s a bit of suckers game these days.
If you leave your head in the sand for too long, you might get run over by a Jeep.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:40 am

columbia wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:15 am
HEDGEFUNDIE wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:53 pm
Curious if any of the China haters here are now going to pull out of the US markets now that the Fed is going to directly buy up corporate securities.

No? Why not? Isn’t this clear government manipulation of the markets?
If the idea is that today’s prices are not reflective of the reality of coming shakeout of the economy, then I probably agree. That’s an argument for not buying stocks right now; not an argument for buying outside of the US. ie Folks buying VTI should prepare for continued losses. It’s a bit of suckers game these days.
You are waiting for some pure state of the markets where capitalism runs unfettered from government influence.

Do you realize how crazy that sounds? In any market, at any time?

Government policy is the market, in the same way and in the same measure as corporate executives making operating decisions and retirees cashing out and early-in-career 20-somethings saving their first 5% of salary into their 401k.

To consider policy to be something exogenous to the normal functioning of the system would be making a category mistake.
Last edited by HEDGEFUNDIE on Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:49 am, edited 3 times in total.

Seasonal
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Seasonal » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:47 am

typical.investor wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:54 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:25 pm
A problem with masks is the severe shortage in the US. The government's failure to invoke the DPA and ramping up production contributes to that.

China, and much of Asia, has lots of masks.
And even if the US had more than enough, do you see people on the NY or SF metros wearing them out of precaution?
Yesterday I saw a lot of NYers wearing masks (or other face coverings). I usually see none.

Another advantage to China was that it directed production and distribution of masks and other equipment to the areas with greatest need, rather than let individual areas and hospitals compete with each other (and compete with individuals) for the equipment, especially during times when they are having cash flow problems.

ETA: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-run-out

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:31 pm

glorat wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:05 pm
nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 am
Obviously, China can survive and recover from, dare I say "only" 3,267 deaths (about the same as 9/11), but 1.3 billion x 40% x 1% mortality is staggering, even if you cut it down to reflect better treatment and management as time goes on.
China's strategy is full suppression, whatever the cost. Other countries may look to build up herd immunity since they can't control it anyway
"herd immunity" was allegedly the UK strategy until Imperial College modelling showed the Cabinet just how many people would die. Our stance shifted abruptly at the end of last week - but we are still not as locked down as Italy or Spain (let alone Singapore or Taiwan).

Herd immunity doesn't work, or maybe does not work:

- it's actually a term referring to vaccination - percentage of the population you need to vaccinate to prevent an epidemic breaking out

- whilst it is true that if you get flu, you are immune to that particular strain of flu then (normally) it is not clear this is the case with Coronavirus. It appears that you can be reinfected within weeks of your first exposure - at least that was the thinking I tracked

"Herd immunity" is a strategy that developing countries will pursue by default. They don't have enough resources (just things like clean water to wash hands) to do anything else. Although they are locking down to try to prevent the spread (India).

If the estimates of mortality rate are correct (and no reputable epidemiologist seems to think we have enough information for more than a well educated guess) at around 1% (in developed countries) then this will in time pass (likely in waves, ie each winter). With a lot of premature deaths (10x the flu).

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:32 pm

Seasonal wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:47 am
typical.investor wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:54 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:25 pm
A problem with masks is the severe shortage in the US. The government's failure to invoke the DPA and ramping up production contributes to that.

China, and much of Asia, has lots of masks.
And even if the US had more than enough, do you see people on the NY or SF metros wearing them out of precaution?
Yesterday I saw a lot of NYers wearing masks (or other face coverings). I usually see none.

Another advantage to China was that it directed production and distribution of masks and other equipment to the areas with greatest need, rather than let individual areas and hospitals compete with each other (and compete with individuals) for the equipment, especially during times when they are having cash flow problems.

ETA: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-run-out
Masks are basically a waste of time on civilians.

The best you can say is that they might prevent you, the mask wearer, from infecting other people when you cough or sneeze.

Seasonal
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Seasonal » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:11 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:32 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:47 am
typical.investor wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:54 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:25 pm
A problem with masks is the severe shortage in the US. The government's failure to invoke the DPA and ramping up production contributes to that.

China, and much of Asia, has lots of masks.
And even if the US had more than enough, do you see people on the NY or SF metros wearing them out of precaution?
Yesterday I saw a lot of NYers wearing masks (or other face coverings). I usually see none.

Another advantage to China was that it directed production and distribution of masks and other equipment to the areas with greatest need, rather than let individual areas and hospitals compete with each other (and compete with individuals) for the equipment, especially during times when they are having cash flow problems.

ETA: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-run-out
Masks are basically a waste of time on civilians.

The best you can say is that they might prevent you, the mask wearer, from infecting other people when you cough or sneeze.
It appears the coronavirus can be transmitted by people who are asymptomatic. If nothing else, wearing masks would help prevent those people from infecting others. I'm seeing more support for masks, perhaps for this reason, perhaps due to the success of Asian countries where masks are more common in battling the virus, perhaps for no good reason.

BTW, I believe the current view is that reinfection is highly unlikely and the few cases thought to be reinfection were in fact cases of inadequate testing.

Valuethinker
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Valuethinker » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:29 pm

typical.investor wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:54 pm


But maybe some companies will require the practice, and maybe clusters of cases will be reduced at those employers. So maybe US stocks can recover quicker as people can work. Again, I am not changing allocation based on any of this. It's all too uncertain.
Rather. Many of us are working from home. That cuts down the risk of getting infected, and infecting others.

We (UK) are looking at working in this way for several months, at least (service sector organisation).

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by doss » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:39 pm

Thanks for these posts. Very enlightening!

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by watchnerd » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:47 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:32 pm


Masks are basically a waste of time on civilians.

The best you can say is that they might prevent you, the mask wearer, from infecting other people when you cough or sneeze.
The cheapie (not N-95) masks are a social virtue signaling device.
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by typical.investor » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:39 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:32 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:47 am
typical.investor wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:54 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:25 pm
A problem with masks is the severe shortage in the US. The government's failure to invoke the DPA and ramping up production contributes to that.

China, and much of Asia, has lots of masks.
And even if the US had more than enough, do you see people on the NY or SF metros wearing them out of precaution?
Yesterday I saw a lot of NYers wearing masks (or other face coverings). I usually see none.

Another advantage to China was that it directed production and distribution of masks and other equipment to the areas with greatest need, rather than let individual areas and hospitals compete with each other (and compete with individuals) for the equipment, especially during times when they are having cash flow problems.

ETA: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-run-out
Masks are basically a waste of time on civilians.

The best you can say is that they might prevent you, the mask wearer, from infecting other people when you cough or sneeze.
Perhaps in your way of thinking that is the best you can say.

My way of thinking is that everyone wearing a mask will mean much less chance of my loved ones getting infected when the many people they interact with cough or sneeze. That translates into less chance of my seeing a loved one die.

Anyway, if you really believe that it's a waste of time to take a minimal measure to prevent the death of another human being, I have all kinds of snarky retorts to make that view look as cold as it is. I'm just gonna let it stand for itself though.

OK, today's numbers. UK 7 deaths/Million. Japan 0.4/Million

Again, I don't believe that can be explained by rate of testing, or Gov imposed restrictions because Japan has been rather lax.

doss
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by doss » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:16 am

Bump. How are things looking, @simplegift?

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SimpleGift
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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by SimpleGift » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:05 pm

doss wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:16 am
Bump. How are things looking, @simplegift?
In the two weeks since making the original post, China has been reporting less than 50 new cases of coronavirus each day (apparently all imported cases now), suggesting China has gotten its outbreak under control. Its mainland stock markets, however, have been slumping ever since the original post on March 8 (chart below) — a decline that has been attributed to overseas investors fleeing riskier assets, as part of the overall global pullback.
Some commentators are now expecting the Chinese mainland markets to recover in line with the stabilization and recovery of the global economy and markets as a whole.

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Re: Chinese Stocks during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:03 pm

typical.investor wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:39 pm
Valuethinker wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:32 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:47 am
typical.investor wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:54 pm
Seasonal wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:25 pm
A problem with masks is the severe shortage in the US. The government's failure to invoke the DPA and ramping up production contributes to that.

China, and much of Asia, has lots of masks.
And even if the US had more than enough, do you see people on the NY or SF metros wearing them out of precaution?
Yesterday I saw a lot of NYers wearing masks (or other face coverings). I usually see none.

Another advantage to China was that it directed production and distribution of masks and other equipment to the areas with greatest need, rather than let individual areas and hospitals compete with each other (and compete with individuals) for the equipment, especially during times when they are having cash flow problems.

ETA: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ls-run-out
Masks are basically a waste of time on civilians.

The best you can say is that they might prevent you, the mask wearer, from infecting other people when you cough or sneeze.
Perhaps in your way of thinking that is the best you can say.

My way of thinking is that everyone wearing a mask will mean much less chance of my loved ones getting infected when the many people they interact with cough or sneeze. That translates into less chance of my seeing a loved one die.

Anyway, if you really believe that it's a waste of time to take a minimal measure to prevent the death of another human being, I have all kinds of snarky retorts to make that view look as cold as it is. I'm just gonna let it stand for itself though.

OK, today's numbers. UK 7 deaths/Million. Japan 0.4/Million

Again, I don't believe that can be explained by rate of testing, or Gov imposed restrictions because Japan has been rather lax.
Hi

What we have been told here is that the masks likely convey no protection against ingress of the virus. If they do then you need to replace the masks every 15 minutes or so to make effective.

Thus outside of a clinical setting they are not effective.

Except that they might stop you infecting other people via coughing and sneezing.

However there is also a massive clinical shortage in effective protection equipment. So in using masks personally you are contributing to that shortage and removing protection from vitally needed healthcare workers.

I am not being cold blooded here.

What I hate is people being told they are protecting themselves when they are not. They might be less careful and take greater risks because of a false belief in protection.

There are lots of things about Japan which would explain a low infection and a low death rate which are not applicable to western societies.

Low death rates are in any case different from low infection rates. Masks, if they work at all would affect the latter but not the former.

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