Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

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Tigermoose
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Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Tigermoose » Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:35 am

I reallocated from a more conservative retirement fund to straight S&P 500. I'm doing 1/2 tomorrow and 1/2 Friday. Trade should execute end of day tomorrow. All future 403b contributions will be into the S&P 500 index. Once my mortgage refinance finishes (long story), we plan on investing the cash out. We are thinking about investing 100k into the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund, and the remainder in a safer treasury fund.

i'm backing the truck up and loading up. :moneybag :sharebeer :moneybag
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Noobvestor
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Noobvestor » Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:12 am

Tigermoose wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:35 am
I reallocated from a more conservative retirement fund to straight S&P 500. I'm doing 1/2 tomorrow and 1/2 Friday. Trade should execute end of day tomorrow. All future 403b contributions will be into the S&P 500 index. Once my mortgage refinance finishes (long story), we plan on investing the cash out. We are thinking about investing 100k into the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund, and the remainder in a safer treasury fund.

i'm backing the truck up and loading up. :moneybag :sharebeer :moneybag
I've said it before, but I'll say it again: we need to sticky the definition of 'rebalancing' somewhere, because these posts give me headaches. You are not rebalancing. You are changing your allocation. You are market timing. You can do that, but please don't use the wrong word for it.

Also, you're talking about investing everything in the 500 index potentially, which tilts large (no small or mid) and only covers the US - seems like recency bias to me, given how well US large cap has done this decade. /2 cents
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

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AnalogKid22
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:30 am

Rebalancing means adjusting your AA to maintain a specific AA. You’ve decided to go all stocks, which, as mentioned above, is timing the market. Why was yesterday the right time to make this move considering the current volatility?

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Forester
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Forester » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:36 am

Market is down 30% and bonds are nosebleed expensive. There are worse moments to market time than this - I say go for it and good luck.

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dwickenh
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by dwickenh » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:06 am

Good Luck!! I hope you are young and secure in your employment.
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

MotoTrojan
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:16 am

Forester wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:36 am
Market is down 30% and bonds are nosebleed expensive. There are worse moments to market time than this - I say go for it and good luck.
Agreed. Just don't freak out if we go down another 30% from here.

OP I would also consider grabbing some international stocks.

chevca
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by chevca » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:25 am

So, you went from something like 60/40 to 100% stocks and part of that will be cash out from a refi going to buy stocks.... and you call that rebalancing? That's interesting..... :oops:

CnC
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by CnC » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:41 am

Tigermoose wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:35 am
I reallocated from a more conservative retirement fund to straight S&P 500. I'm doing 1/2 tomorrow and 1/2 Friday. Trade should execute end of day tomorrow. All future 403b contributions will be into the S&P 500 index. Once my mortgage refinance finishes (long story), we plan on investing the cash out. We are thinking about investing 100k into the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund, and the remainder in a safer treasury fund.

i'm backing the truck up and loading up. :moneybag :sharebeer :moneybag


Good luck!

Could I suggest that you do 50% today after the big drop. Then hold off for the bump and buy the remainder back in on Monday after the Friday bump gets wiped out.

GoldenFinch
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:45 am

The panic is just beginning. Make sure you are okay with extreme volatility and won’t be bothered by another huge drop.

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AnalogKid22
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by AnalogKid22 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:32 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:45 am
The panic is just beginning. Make sure you are okay with extreme volatility and won’t be bothered by another huge drop.
Exactly. We are so early in all of this. Apparently all 50 states have at least one infected person and businesses are steadily closing, not just for safety, but because they aren't getting any customers.

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Tigermoose
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Tigermoose » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:42 am

Rebalancing was in quotes for a reason! i know its not really rebalancing. Rick Ferri tweeted that if he was younger he would be loading up on stocks, and I agree!

I am 44 and secure in my employment.

Here is what my crystal ball is showing me. We are in panic mode now. But soon we will have good news that will set the bottom.

1. Safe and common drugs exist that lessen the severity of the illness - chloroquinine. (soon)
2. The federal government is going to pass a 1 Trillion dollar stimulus package which includes direct infusion of cash into the populace (soon)
3. Social distancing measures will be seen to flatten the curve and boost confidence (2-3 weeks)
4. Herd immunity will kick in faster than expected (4-5 weeks)
5. Our healthcare institutions are going to handle this far better than other nations, lessening the fatality rate - happening now


I might not time this perfectly, but I definitely want to be in position for the major snapback gains that will occur once we come out of this panic.
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Tigermoose
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Tigermoose » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:44 am

CnC wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:41 am
Tigermoose wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:35 am
I reallocated from a more conservative retirement fund to straight S&P 500. I'm doing 1/2 tomorrow and 1/2 Friday. Trade should execute end of day tomorrow. All future 403b contributions will be into the S&P 500 index. Once my mortgage refinance finishes (long story), we plan on investing the cash out. We are thinking about investing 100k into the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund, and the remainder in a safer treasury fund.

i'm backing the truck up and loading up. :moneybag :sharebeer :moneybag


Good luck!

Could I suggest that you do 50% today after the big drop. Then hold off for the bump and buy the remainder back in on Monday after the Friday bump gets wiped out.
yes, that is exactly my timing. Placed order last night which will take effect with the pricing at the end of today (3/18). Place order on Thursday evening to get the end of Friday pricing (3/20).
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cp73
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by cp73 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:47 am

I hope this works for you. I wouldn't be so sure that your employment is secure. You never know. I hope you are right....I am in retirement and even though I know I should probably rebalance now I am not ready to rebalance. I dont want an event to happen like we have never seen before.

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Tigermoose
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Tigermoose » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:50 am

cp73 wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:47 am
I hope this works for you. I wouldn't be so sure that your employment is secure. You never know. I hope you are right....I am in retirement and even though I know I should probably rebalance now I am not ready to rebalance. I dont want an event to happen like we have never seen before.
I would not be doing this if I was in retirement. You are wise to stay put.
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LiterallyIronic
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by LiterallyIronic » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:53 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:45 am
The panic is just beginning.
Really? It feels like it's winding down to me. Everyone did their panic buying already and now everyone is in the middle of just chillin' until the end of the month. Then back to normal on April 1.

ValuationsMatter
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by ValuationsMatter » Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:55 am

Good luck, buddy! For what it's worth, I think you are getting in at an excellent time, as long as you can wait out the down swing.

CnC
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by CnC » Wed Mar 18, 2020 2:02 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:53 am
GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:45 am
The panic is just beginning.
Really? It feels like it's winding down to me. Everyone did their panic buying already and now everyone is in the middle of just chillin' until the end of the month. Then back to normal on April 1.
Naw, the panic will hit once we have 500-1000 dying in the us each day.

Not being an alarmist in any way, it will happen we have 5x the population of Italy, we are not going to do 5x better than Italy is and Italy just lost 475 people today and they are still going up.


If we get to the same point Italy is right now that is nearly 2500 deaths a day I don't think we will get that bad, but even if we do twice the job Italy did that over 1,000 deaths every day.

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Tigermoose
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Tigermoose » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:23 am

So looking good so far *fingers crossed*. Finished my first transaction with yesterday's end of day price. I'm going to go ahead and execute the next half into a Vanguard small cap index today. I think small caps are going to get significant gains when congress passes the $1 Trillion + fiscal stimulus with half of it targeting small businesses.

I think we are going to keep the refinance cash in a savings or bond fund to keep it as dry powder for buying a home after real estate prices have come down come.

We might also "rebalance" :twisted: some of my wife's 401 from bonds into stocks in the coming week (s).

I see that the hydroxychloroquinine treatment is getting more press in mainstream sources. The fiscal stimulus is going to put a floor on the market imho.

We might not be at a bottom, but close enough!
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livesoft
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by livesoft » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:55 am

I just looked and it seems that a 60/40 fund such as the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund is about where it was on 12/24/20018 or a mere 15 months ago. I rebalanced on that date and I did more rebalancing today.

Good luck to everyone!
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Dogbreath650
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Dogbreath650 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:52 pm

Tigermoose - please keep updating us, regardless of which way this goes. Will be a beneficial case study once/if this all blows over...

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Tigermoose
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Tigermoose » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:48 pm

[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

Next up will be the anticipation and then passing of the enormous fiscal stimulus.

I went ahead and transferred the other half of my retirement funds into the Vanguard small caps. Trade will execute at the end of the day. I was going to wait until Friday, but I was wanting to get ahead of the positive news about this quinine treatment and the fiscal stimulus anticipation. Looks like I still might be a day too late as the market, especially small caps, are up today.
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by fortyofforty » Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:35 pm

Tigermoose wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:48 pm
[OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek]

Next up will be the anticipation and then passing of the enormous fiscal stimulus.

I went ahead and transferred the other half of my retirement funds into the Vanguard small caps. Trade will execute at the end of the day. I was going to wait until Friday, but I was wanting to get ahead of the positive news about this quinine treatment and the fiscal stimulus anticipation. Looks like I still might be a day too late as the market, especially small caps, are up today.
Yes, I wish I had gotten into small caps yesterday. That's over 7% in one day. But, alas, I can't time the market very well.
Indexing works, not because of magic, but because of math. | Diligentia. Vis. Celeritas. - Jeff Cooper | Out of self-quarantine.

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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:00 am

A number of off-topic posts relating to coronavirus have been removed (bumping the thread since March 19, 2020).

Please stay on-topic.
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tvubpwcisla
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by tvubpwcisla » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:08 am

Hope things are working out for you. I think rebalancing is fine as long as it's part of your plan and you are not simply adjusting your plan because of current market conditions.
The secret to building wealth is to have a plan, keep expenses low, become an expert in your craft, consistently buy the market, diversify, establish multiple income streams, and always smile.

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Tigermoose
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Tigermoose » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:01 pm

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:08 am
Hope things are working out for you. I think rebalancing is fine as long as it's part of your plan and you are not simply adjusting your plan because of current market conditions.
I am putting rebalancing in quotes, a little Boglehead joke. I am investing more than my IPS calls for into stocks.

So far I've made $2,500. Looks like I will be making some more today.

I haven't received my cash out refinance money yet. I think we'll be putting that into the Wellesley Income Fund once we get it wired over.
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Rajsx
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Re: Wish me luck! "Rebalancing!"

Post by Rajsx » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:44 pm

I am happy Livesoft is back posting again. I learn from his posts
We do not stop laughing because we grow old, we grow old because we stop laughing !!

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