U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Hyperchicken
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hyperchicken » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:16 am

squirm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:10 am
yes, quite a bear market rally. the short algos are covering very quick. Will probably peter out around 2500-2700.
Has the market broken through the ugly downward channel trend?

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by squirm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:20 am

Hyperchicken wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:16 am
squirm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:10 am
yes, quite a bear market rally. the short algos are covering very quick. Will probably peter out around 2500-2700.
Has the market broken through the ugly downward channel trend?
Gapped above it yesteday, that's why the rally. it's like an all clear for the bulls in the short term. bears had to quickly cover.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:23 am

Doing more buying next week when some cash hits. Hoping for better prices!

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:58 am

I'm back in the black, and have killed more bares than Davy Crockett. :mrgreen:

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:10 pm

Awfully quiet around here. Nice back to back days in the making.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:27 pm

FOMO, FOMO alert; my buy of VOO at 201 is up 16.6%. :greedy

LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LiterallyIronic » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:30 pm

peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:36 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:09 pm
Futures up!
Not anymore!

The dead cat bounced today....but tomorrow?
Up 5% more.

peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:42 pm

LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:30 pm
peskypesky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:36 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:09 pm
Futures up!
Not anymore!

The dead cat bounced today....but tomorrow?
Up 5% more.
Stimulus package goosing the market up. We'll see if how long the market remains optimistic. I don't see how it can, with the onlslaught of c19, but we shall see.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:47 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:27 pm
FOMO, FOMO alert; my buy of VOO at 201 is up 16.6%. :greedy
How many shares?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

I fear this "goosing" is going to be just like what happens when you throw gas on a pile of burning stuff... the initial blaze is glorious, then the flames settle down again.

Cool, pretty to watch, but will the lift be long enough to do much good? Fingers crossed.....

Broken Man 1999
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:04 pm

Stinky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:05 pm
Stinky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:03 pm
Market was down less than 3% today. Considering that it was a Monday, and that the Senate is still deadlocked on a relief bill, it seems like a “soaring” day to me.

Just think - if the market goes up on Tuesday and Wednesday, that will be two days in a row!

Hope springs eternal.
Well, Tuesday was an up day.

Hoping for the same on Wednesday. Pulling for two in a row!
Two days in a row that S&P was up. It’s been a long time since we could say that.

Hoping for three tomorrow.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:11 pm

Stinky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:04 pm
Two days in a row that S&P was up. It’s been a long time since we could say that.
Yes, over a month, and a very rocky month at that, one of the worst on record.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:18 pm

Stinky wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:04 pm
Stinky wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:05 pm
Stinky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:03 pm
Market was down less than 3% today. Considering that it was a Monday, and that the Senate is still deadlocked on a relief bill, it seems like a “soaring” day to me.

Just think - if the market goes up on Tuesday and Wednesday, that will be two days in a row!

Hope springs eternal.
Well, Tuesday was an up day.

Hoping for the same on Wednesday. Pulling for two in a row!
Two days in a row that S&P was up. It’s been a long time since we could say that.

Hoping for three tomorrow.
With possibly the largest unemployment number ever released? CA Gov just said 1 million filed since 3/13

Citi projected 4M, MS 3.4M, BOA 3M, GS 2.25M and UBS 860K for the US = AVG 2.69M

Which number is the market pricing in?

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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:20 pm

Regarding two up days in a row, and leading into tomorrow, I submit the following video tribute:

https://youtu.be/MLCLMEYp9s0

I want to see the same enthusiasm out of posters in this thread!

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:26 pm

Why did most of today's gains suddenly evaporate? I've not seen any news.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

DonIce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DonIce » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:27 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:26 pm
Why did most of today's gains suddenly evaporate? I've not seen any news.
Why were there any gains to begin with? Same difference.

Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Corsair » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:28 pm

DonIce wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:27 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:26 pm
Why did most of today's gains suddenly evaporate? I've not seen any news.
Why were there any gains to begin with? Same difference.
It seemed to dive when this news came out:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/bernie- ... -bill.html

as9
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by as9 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:32 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:26 pm
Why did most of today's gains suddenly evaporate? I've not seen any news.
Speculating, but...

- Reports that a few senators want some changes and it may not fly through the House?
- More unemployment projections?
- Experts issuing warnings that the US is at a dangerous inflection point?
- Some realization that the last 2 days in the market potentially don't make a whole lot of sense?

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:39 pm

A follow up to my post yesterday. CNBC showed again this morning that yesterday was the largest point increase (not percentage) since 1931.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:39 pm

Another crazy day! While up at the close during the trading session the Dow was over 1,200 points!

I would expect the VIX is going crazy.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:06 pm

TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:47 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:27 pm
FOMO, FOMO alert; my buy of VOO at 201 is up 16.6%. :greedy
How many shares?
More than one but that's not important. I have shares of VOO that range from -26.65% to +12.75%, nasty drop at the close.
The most important thing to the sportsman in me is I'm now up $973.97 total after six years of playing the game. It is only six years because I got totally wipedout by a divorce.

Compared to divorce this month's setback ain't nothing. :mrgreen:

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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:51 am

Could it be three in a row? That's called a WINNING STREAK. It HAS happened before.

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abuss368
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 am

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:51 am
Could it be three in a row? That's called a WINNING STREAK. It HAS happened before.
The premarket was down 500+ and now is positive 600+.

Incredible.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:58 am
I'm back in the black, and have killed more bares than Davy Crockett. :mrgreen:
What kind of "bares"?
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

fanmail
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fanmail » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 am

Thinking this is going to be a short lived rally today, but who knows.

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:26 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:58 am
I'm back in the black, and have killed more bares than Davy Crockett. :mrgreen:
What kind of "bares"?
The kind he kilt.
A fool and your money are soon partners

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:38 am

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:02 am
Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:51 am
Could it be three in a row? That's called a WINNING STREAK. It HAS happened before.
The premarket was down 500+ and now is positive 600+.

Incredible.
Which is why I am fearful.

From my perspective it truly looks like an epic tug of war between shorts and longs. Meanwhile everyone else is taking no position.

ziggny
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ziggny » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:01 am

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:51 am
Could it be three in a row? That's called a WINNING STREAK. It HAS happened before.
Just here to let you know somebody got the reference.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:04 am

firebirdparts wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:26 am
Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:58 am
I'm back in the black, and have killed more bares than Davy Crockett. :mrgreen:
What kind of "bares"?
The kind he kilt.
Were the bears bare? :confused
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

as9
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by as9 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:14 am

I was pretty confident the last couple days were showing excessive optimism and the unemployment numbers would be on the higher end of the estimates. As a result, I thought today and probably tomorrow would be really rough days. The numbers were in fact high and ... another day of gains?

teerup
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by teerup » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:18 am

CNBC says "Markets now bracing for ‘tsunami’ of bad news, after 3 million jobless claims"

Dow up almost 1k, S&P almost 100, and trending up.

WTF.

theorist
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by theorist » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:20 am

The pattern has also been interesting between asset classes. Small value has been killing it! (Though today’s gains may yet evaporate; and of course small value has been taking it on the chin for a LONG time.)

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BreathFree » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:21 am

Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:04 am
firebirdparts wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:26 am
Bluce wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 am
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:58 am
I'm back in the black, and have killed more bares than Davy Crockett. :mrgreen:
What kind of "bares"?
The kind he kilt.
Were the bears bare? :confused
The naked shorts were! ;)

grettman
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by grettman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:22 am

teerup wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:18 am
CNBC says "Markets now bracing for ‘tsunami’ of bad news, after 3 million jobless claims"

Dow up almost 1k, S&P almost 100, and trending up.

WTF.
Looking at the news ratings since this started, they have climb substantially. Higher ratings increase ad revenue. Bad news on websites creates clicks which also generate an increase in ad revenue. I try to keep these facts in perspective as I watch and read news. They *directly* benefit from all of this. Mr. Market knows some facts out there that CNBC isn't highlighting (or reporting at all).

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:31 am

teerup wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:18 am
CNBC says "Markets now bracing for ‘tsunami’ of bad news, after 3 million jobless claims"

Dow up almost 1k, S&P almost 100, and trending up.
Explanation for CNBCs reporting -

“Bad” news sells. Good news doesn’t.

Simple as that.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

teerup
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by teerup » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:33 am

I get the media hype to drive clicks, was just referring to the count of jobless claims being reported yet the market rise.

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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by canadianbacon » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:33 am

as9 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:14 am
I was pretty confident the last couple days were showing excessive optimism and the unemployment numbers would be on the higher end of the estimates. As a result, I thought today and probably tomorrow would be really rough days. The numbers were in fact high and ... another day of gains?
It's not whether the numbers are high, it's how they compare to expectations, which were also bad.

It was priced in.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by cork » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:36 am

teerup wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:33 am
I get the media hype to drive clicks, was just referring to the count of jobless claims being reported yet the market rise.
They expected more jobless claims, thus, they beat their projection.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Monsterflockster » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am

Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put).

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by theorist » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:44 am

Monsterflockster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am
Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put).
Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve.

teerup
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by teerup » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:48 am

theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:44 am
Monsterflockster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am
Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put).
Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve.
Here in MN state government has stated that they are too late to flatten the curve, and are now focused on pushing it out several weeks to give health care time to shore up their critical care facilities, supplies, etc. to be more prepared for the spike in cases they are estimating.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:04 am

theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:44 am
Monsterflockster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am
Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put).
Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve.
Cite?

From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 126k to 218k, a 73% increase. From 3/18-3/25, global cases went from 218k to 471k, a 116% increase.

From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 4,628 to 8,951, a 93% increase. From 3/18-3/25, global cases went from 8,951 to 21,284, a 138% increase.

That suggests that the rate of cases and deaths is still increasing, not decreasing (i.e. 'flattening). It also suggests that the virus's fatality rate may be increasing. I don't see how stocks can continue to go up as long as the virus's human impact is still increasing.

Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Last edited by willthrill81 on Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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as9
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by as9 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:04 am

grettman wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:22 am
teerup wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:18 am
CNBC says "Markets now bracing for ‘tsunami’ of bad news, after 3 million jobless claims"

Dow up almost 1k, S&P almost 100, and trending up.

WTF.
Looking at the news ratings since this started, they have climb substantially. Higher ratings increase ad revenue. Bad news on websites creates clicks which also generate an increase in ad revenue. I try to keep these facts in perspective as I watch and read news. They *directly* benefit from all of this. Mr. Market knows some facts out there that CNBC isn't highlighting (or reporting at all).
What you just said is 100% false and seems to be a popular take among the anti-media crowd. Clicks (visits) only increase ad revenue if ads are being purchased. Every single (internet-based) media company is projecting fairly significant revenue declines, layoffs have begun at local/regional outlets, Buzzfeed announced company-wide paycuts. For 99% of media companies this is not good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by theorist » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:09 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:04 am
theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:44 am
Monsterflockster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am
Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put).
Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve.
Cite?

From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 126k to 218k, a 73% increase. From 3/18-3/25, global cases went from 218k to 471k, a 116% increase.

From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 4,628 to 8,951, a 93% increase. From 3/18-3/25, global cases went from 8,951 to 21,284, a 138% increase.

That suggests that the rate of cases and deaths is still increasing, not decreasing (i.e. 'flattening). It also suggests that the virus's fatality rate may be increasing. I don't see how stocks can continue to go up as long as the virus's human impact is still increasing.

Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I was saying that was good news that, WHEN it happens, could push markets upward. I agree it hasn’t happened yet! :-)

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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:14 am

ziggny wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:01 am
Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:51 am
Could it be three in a row? That's called a WINNING STREAK. It HAS happened before.
Just here to let you know somebody got the reference.
Haha! Thanks!

So let's see some hustle! Let's jack it up a little!

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am

theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:09 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:04 am
theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:44 am
Monsterflockster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am
Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put).
Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve.
Cite?

From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 126k to 218k, a 73% increase. From 3/18-3/25, global cases went from 218k to 471k, a 116% increase.

From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 4,628 to 8,951, a 93% increase. From 3/18-3/25, global cases went from 8,951 to 21,284, a 138% increase.

That suggests that the rate of cases and deaths is still increasing, not decreasing (i.e. 'flattening). It also suggests that the virus's fatality rate may be increasing. I don't see how stocks can continue to go up as long as the virus's human impact is still increasing.

Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I was saying that was good news that, WHEN it happens, could push markets upward. I agree it hasn’t happened yet! :-)
Gotcha.

I'm befuddled by the market's recent movement. The current drawdown is only about 5% deeper than the one in late 2018, but it seems strikingly obvious to me that we are in a far worse position economically right now than we were then. Methinks that many in the market are overly optimistic right now.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am

U.S. loses 3.3M jobs in 1 week, Dow soars! It's almost comical.

At this rate it is going to take something unexpected to revert back to a bottom (like a world leader dying of covid19), seems like all the bad economic news is baked in and investors are assuming the national lockdowns and summer are going to hinder the spread of the virus and/or the Fed/govts are going to cushion the blow as much as possible through monetary and fiscal stimulus or other policy measures.

Just my theory, could be something else going on.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:24 am

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am
U.S. loses 3.3M jobs in 1 week, Dow soars! It's almost comical.

At this rate it is going to take something unexpected to revert back to a bottom (like a world leader dying of covid19), seems like all the bad economic news is baked in and investors are assuming the national lockdowns and summer are going to hinder the spread of the virus and/or the Fed/govts are going to cushion the blow as much as possible through monetary and fiscal stimulus or other policy measures.

Just my theory, could be something else going on.
Think about this: the current drawdown is only 5% deeper than the one we had back in late 2018. Is the current situation only '5% worse' than that one? Was that drawdown 'irrationally' large, is the current drawdown 'irrationally' small, or were both drawdowns 'rational'?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

theorist
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by theorist » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am
theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:09 am
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:04 am
theorist wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:44 am
Monsterflockster wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:42 am
Is there any "good news" left that can give the markets a push upward? Is another dive an panic around the corner? If only I had a crystal ball that works... my hunches don't work so well (so I just stay put).
Italy flattens curve, US flattens curve.
Cite?

From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 126k to 218k, a 73% increase. From 3/18-3/25, global cases went from 218k to 471k, a 116% increase.

From 3/11-3/18, global cases went from 4,628 to 8,951, a 93% increase. From 3/18-3/25, global cases went from 8,951 to 21,284, a 138% increase.

That suggests that the rate of cases and deaths is still increasing, not decreasing (i.e. 'flattening). It also suggests that the virus's fatality rate may be increasing. I don't see how stocks can continue to go up as long as the virus's human impact is still increasing.

Data source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I was saying that was good news that, WHEN it happens, could push markets upward. I agree it hasn’t happened yet! :-)
Gotcha.

I'm befuddled by the market's recent movement. The current drawdown is only about 5% deeper than the one in late 2018, but it seems strikingly obvious to me that we are in a far worse position economically right now than we were then. Methinks that many in the market are overly optimistic right now.
I really don’t know what to think about this (in accord with the “nobody knows nuthin’” espoused by everyone here anyway). I am confident that with time we can get the virus under control. And avoid mass death in developed countries, as long as people are reasonable about distancing (more reasonable, seemingly, than some of our politicians want us to be). [Developing or frontier countries are another story, and there may be terrible costs paid in human lives.]

The uncertainty for me lies in what happens if we DO follow the sane policy and avoid mass death. How do you restart a globally interconnected economy? We already see stories about the problem China is facing: as it ramps back up, demand is gone! So after filling back-orders from the time when it was down and foreign economies were up, its companies are now facing down time and lay offs due to lack of demand. I don’t know how representative these stories are, but they raise the spectre of trying to re-boot a complicated non-linear interacting system — something we have very little experience with.

anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:31 am

justsomeguy2018 wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:21 am
U.S. loses 3.3M jobs in 1 week, Dow soars! It's almost comical.

At this rate it is going to take something unexpected to revert back to a bottom (like a world leader dying of covid19), seems like all the bad economic news is baked in and investors are assuming the national lockdowns and summer are going to hinder the spread of the virus and/or the Fed/govts are going to cushion the blow as much as possible through monetary and fiscal stimulus or other policy measures.

Just my theory, could be something else going on.
Enough stimulus to take the Dow to 40K at least, maybe even by November.

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