Gold $1600 Oz - When?

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firebirdparts
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by firebirdparts » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:05 pm

I"m still trying to figure out how one becomes a junior gold miner. Seriously, though, you'd have to be insane to want a leveraged version of that.
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watchnerd
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:18 pm

firebirdparts wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:05 pm
I"m still trying to figure out how one becomes a junior gold miner. Seriously, though, you'd have to be insane to want a leveraged version of that.
I guess it's like the gold equivalent of a tech startup?

But with leverage?
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watchnerd
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:21 pm

This junior gold miner has the best name:

Iamgold Corp

NYSE: IAG
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StormShadow
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by StormShadow » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:39 pm

grayfox wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 9:38 am
Image
Black Tuesday: Bankrupt investor Walter Thornton tries to sell his luxury roadster for $100 cash on the streets of New York City following the 1929 stock market crash
Picture Taken: October 30, 1929
Reminds me of the Untouchables. They look like Al Capone's crew! :mrgreen:

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grayfox
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by grayfox » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:27 pm

Gold topped 1700 Sunday evening. It's currently 1698.

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/?symbo ... C%3AXAUUSD
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watchnerd
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by watchnerd » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:27 pm

grayfox wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:27 pm
Gold topped 1700 Sunday evening. It's currently 1698.

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/?symbo ... C%3AXAUUSD
Geez, that took a while.

Stores in China must be open again.
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unclescrooge
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by unclescrooge » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:21 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 5:29 am
halfnine wrote:
Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:46 am
watchnerd wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:30 pm
..Something else protection? = gold (maybe)?..
Fed runs out of bullets?
I don't know...there has been negative interest rates in Europe. I can't see that it caused gold to skyrocket.
Did you check the price of gold in local currencies? Is you're looking at the price in US dollars, you won't see an improvement in pricing.

rich126
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by rich126 » Sun Mar 08, 2020 11:51 pm

grayfox wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:27 pm
Gold topped 1700 Sunday evening. It's currently 1698.

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/?symbo ... C%3AXAUUSD
Right now having a diverse portfolio with gold and treasuries certainly is helping to mitigate the drop of the market. If you are young and have decades until retirement then it isn’t that important but if you nearing retirement it is much more important especially if you don’t have other income sources in retirement.

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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:17 am

Gold needs to be $2,500 an ounce with real yields this negative. What does say for gold miners - and BTW one of their biggest costs is oil.

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:19 am

Forester wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:17 am
Gold needs to be $2,500 an ounce with real yields this negative. What does say for gold miners - and BTW one of their biggest costs is oil.
How is that gold price calculated relative to yields?

I don't get how the math works.
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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:25 am

watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:19 am
Forester wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:17 am
Gold needs to be $2,500 an ounce with real yields this negative. What does say for gold miners - and BTW one of their biggest costs is oil.
How is that gold price calculated relative to yields?

I don't get how the math works.
Neither do I but in 2011 the real yield would have been about 2% when the yield was just under 4% and gold hit $1,900.

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grayfox
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by grayfox » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:57 am

The LBMA Gold Price yesterday
09-Mar-20 AM=1676.60 PM=1672.50 XAUUSD finished 1679
10-Mar-20 AM=1657,49 PM=1655.70 XAUUSD finished 1649
11-Mar-20 AM=1662.50 PM=1653.75 XAUUSD finished 1644
12-Mar-20 AM=?? PM=?? XAUUSD at 1594


The AM price is at 10:30 London Time and the PM price at 15:00, but there is a delay and it won't show until after midnight. So the 10-Mar-20 AM gold price is already in, but we have to wait until 24:00 in London, which is 8PM in NY.

Meanwhile, XAUUSD on tradingview.com is showing 1662.74 right now. But I think this is actually Gold futures, on the COMEX in NY or from some exchange in Tokyo. I think it might be the the Mar-20 or Apr-20 futures contract. What exactly is GC:CMX?
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guyinlaw
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:41 am

gold 4% today

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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:28 pm

I'm happy with how gold is holding up vs 2008. GDX very volatile today, miners also resilient so far vs 2008. Day by day.

DB2
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by DB2 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:32 pm

Forester wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:28 pm
I'm happy with how gold is holding up vs 2008. GDX very volatile today, miners also resilient so far vs 2008. Day by day.
I believe gold is going to have a good year (it's still positive YTD) especially in the aftermath of this along with the Fed polices (Zero rates and QE).

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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:30 am

All eyes on gold & gold stocks, the emperor has no clothes.

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watchnerd
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:45 am

Still below $1600 USD/oz, though.

It just can't seem to maintain support once it breaks through.
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grayfox
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by grayfox » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:32 am

20200316 8:30AM--Gold dropped to 1473, Silver dropped to 12.65. :!:

Added: LBMA Prices 16-Mar-2020
Gold AM 1504.65 PM 1487.70
SIlver 12.965
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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:22 pm

King Gold

News reporters are falling over themselves to write off the yellow metal. 'Gold tumbles 3%, dash for cash' https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/gold-m ... focus.html And hours later gold finishes up for the day.

I guarantee gold doesn't drop below $1,400. This price is the Theodosian Wall of Gold, an impregnable barrier :moneybag . USD & treasury bonds are weaker than in the 2008 crash.

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watchnerd
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:58 pm

Forester wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:22 pm
King Gold

News reporters are falling over themselves to write off the yellow metal. 'Gold tumbles 3%, dash for cash' https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/gold-m ... focus.html And hours later gold finishes up for the day.

I guarantee gold doesn't drop below $1,400. This price is the Theodosian Wall of Gold, an impregnable barrier :moneybag . USD & treasury bonds are weaker than in the 2008 crash.
So it seems to be stuck in a trading range above $1400 but below $1600.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by halfnine » Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:13 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:58 pm
Forester wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:22 pm
King Gold

News reporters are falling over themselves to write off the yellow metal. 'Gold tumbles 3%, dash for cash' https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/gold-m ... focus.html And hours later gold finishes up for the day.

I guarantee gold doesn't drop below $1,400. This price is the Theodosian Wall of Gold, an impregnable barrier :moneybag . USD & treasury bonds are weaker than in the 2008 crash.
So it seems to be stuck in a trading range above $1400 but below $1600.
If it drops down around $1400 as part of all asset sell-off I will likely be a buyer.

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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:48 am

Gold miners may have already had their "2008 selloff". Miners just had their biggest 2-day gain since November 2008.

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by mmcmonster » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:36 am

watchnerd wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:47 pm
GRP wrote:
Thu Feb 20, 2020 6:32 pm
Looks like OP got their wish for $1600+ per oz. gold. Likely (but not guaranteed of course) to be a Cornoavirus fear trade.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/gold-su ... trade.html
I wouldn't call it a *wish*, per se.

Any gains I might have in gold, because my position is so small (<1% of portfolio) are dwarfed by losses elsewhere.

A hypothesis, perhaps.
Remember reading on this forum that if an asset makes up less than 5% of your portfolio, it isn't going to make a significant impact on your portfolio.

While this isn't the best of times to restructure anyone's portfolio, consider in the future setting aside either nothing for gold or at least 5 percent.

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grayfox
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by grayfox » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:07 am

LBMA Precious Metals Prices
18-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1506 PM 1498-------Silver 12.42

tradingview (which I think must be futures market:
20200318 9:00AM--Gold 1498, Silver 12.05.

Silver has not been this low since 2009. The crazy thing is, even with the price of silver at 11-year low, you can't buy any!

comparesilverprices
comparegoldprices

All the dealers are saying that they are out of stock.

20200318 16:47 Silver is down to 11.92 on the futures market.
Last edited by grayfox on Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:28 am

Gold has decoupled from stocks. Stocks in search of a bottom, after peak panic. Gold won't sell off again until stocks surpass ATHs.

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Kagord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:57 am

I saw a few comments on some finance sites that Gold went down because of massive selling to cover margin calls. Other's say, with the Fed printing trillions, like each trillion is 5% of our GDP, that's devaluing the USD.

US Dept: 23T
US Corp Debt: 16T
US Consumer Debt: 14T

Potential QA and Stimulus coming: 3T-10T

GDP: 19T

So, we are approaching 200K debt per person in this country (the above divided by 327M)

I'm thinking the Corona virus isn't the problem here, it's a massive debt bubble, I don't think many are aware of this. It looks like the fed knows this, and that's why they are printing money to prevent a very bad situation.

I'm not sure this is market timing here, maybe common sense, but why would anybody not go overweight in gold now? Am I wrong? 1600 Oz? seems very conservative.

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by 7eight9 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:10 am

Up $106.40 at $1,674 as I type this. Two HUGE days in row. Go gold! :happy
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by firebirdparts » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:20 am

The rock collectors showed up this week.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:26 am

firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:20 am
The rock collectors showed up this week.
^ Bagholder of government paper promises!

Wise to own a little of everything! When gold is $3,000 I'll be rebalancing out of that into the stocks & bonds you indirectly sell me.

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by DB2 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:34 am

Forester wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:26 am
firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:20 am
The rock collectors showed up this week.
^ Bagholder of government paper promises!

Wise to own a little of everything! When gold is $3,000 I'll be rebalancing out of that into the stocks & bonds you indirectly sell me.
Not to mention gold is not a rock. lol

Gold has been whooping the S&P 500 since 2000 due to Greenspan monetary policies; it will be interesting to see by the end of the year how much stronger it has done.

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by halfnine » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:46 am

firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:20 am
The rock collectors showed up this week.
A few certainties in life

Water is wet
Fire burns
Trolls show up on a gold thread

Kagord
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Kagord » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:24 am

halfnine wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:46 am
firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:20 am
The rock collectors showed up this week.
A few certainties in life

Water is wet
Fire burns
Trolls show up on a gold thread
IDK, I'm not sure I would call it trolling when the DJIA is going down 97% to 325 in 12 months (I'm trying to be optimistic here, I was thinking 300, but I'm trying to stay positive in this community)

/S

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:36 am

Kagord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:24 am
IDK, I'm not sure I would call it trolling when the DJIA is going down 97% to 325 in 12 months (I'm trying to be optimistic here, I was thinking 300, but I'm trying to stay positive in this community)

/S
Oh man do you know how many shares I can buy if the market goes down 97%?

Screw gold if that happens! I'm all in on stocks.
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firebirdparts
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by firebirdparts » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:00 pm

I could not get used to the idea of 20% of my net worth in gold but I decided 10% is okay. Needless to say it’s all I have now that is not in the red. I am the kind of person who would rebalance out if it. I really hesitate to predict what it’ll do but I feel a little more comfortable predicting what stocks will do.
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watchnerd
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by watchnerd » Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:28 pm

firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:00 pm
I could not get used to the idea of 20% of my net worth in gold but I decided 10% is okay. Needless to say it’s all I have now that is not in the red. I am the kind of person who would rebalance out if it. I really hesitate to predict what it’ll do but I feel a little more comfortable predicting what stocks will do.
Yeah, if timing stocks is hard, gold seems even harder.

At least to me.
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Forester
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by Forester » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:13 pm

I would hope to derive a rebalancing bonus from living through a couple of gold bull & bear markets.

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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by abuss368 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:15 pm

Kagord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:24 am
halfnine wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:46 am
firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:20 am
The rock collectors showed up this week.
A few certainties in life

Water is wet
Fire burns
Trolls show up on a gold thread
IDK, I'm not sure I would call it trolling when the DJIA is going down 97% to 325 in 12 months (I'm trying to be optimistic here, I was thinking 300, but I'm trying to stay positive in this community)

/S
Since you know the Dow is going to decline 97% are you shorting? Have you considered SDS?
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halfnine
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by halfnine » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:47 am

watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:36 am
Kagord wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:24 am
IDK, I'm not sure I would call it trolling when the DJIA is going down 97% to 325 in 12 months (I'm trying to be optimistic here, I was thinking 300, but I'm trying to stay positive in this community)

/S
Oh man do you know how many shares I can buy if the market goes down 97%?

Screw gold if that happens! I'm all in on stocks.
I am pretty sure I'd be all in on stocks before then. Probably by 90%. I wouldn't have anything left for 97%.

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grayfox
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by grayfox » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:29 am

:?: There seems to be many prices of Gold. Which one to use?

I think that from now on I will rely on the LBMA Precious Metals Prices, which are the prices of physical metals which trade in London. The trades are among the 150 or so LBMA members which includes miners, refiners, fabricators, central banks, etc. They are trading tonnes of metal at a time.

I'm pretty sure the COMEX price is the near-term futures prices, because they only trade options or futures on the COMEX, not physical silver, as far as I understand it. So I don't know why people call it the spot price. It seems like a misnomer. It is more like a prediction of what the price will be next month when the futures contract expires, no?

See Understanding and Pricing COMEX Gold Options

The only downside to the LBMA price is there are only two prices per day for Gold (AM and PM) and one for Silver, and the price is only made available to the public after midnight. So a delay. If anyone has another explanation for what the various prices represent I'd like to hear it.

09-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1677 PM 1673-------Silver 16.89
10-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1657 PM 1656-------Silver 17.07
11-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1663 PM 1654-------Silver 17.02
12-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1637 PM 1571-------Silver 16.53
13-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1588 PM 1563-------Silver 15.77

16-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1505 PM 1488-------Silver 12.96
17-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1472 PM 1536-------Silver 12.44
18-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1506 PM 1498-------Silver 12.42
19-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1481 PM 1474-------Silver 12.00
20-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1504 PM 1494-------Silver 12.63

23-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1494 PM 1525-------Silver 12.51
23-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1599 PM 1606-------Silver 13.62
24-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1621 PM 1605-------Silver 13.96

So according to LBMA, Gold was above 1600 two weeks ago, then dipped below 1600 on Thursday the 12th March. Last week, it dipped below 1500 a few times. Then yesterday, Tuesday the 24th, the PM price is back over 1600.

And Silber, which dropped to 12.00 last week, has rebounded to 13.62
Last edited by grayfox on Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gold $1600 Oz - When?

Post by smitcat » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:06 am

grayfox wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:29 am
:?: There seems to be many prices of Gold. Which one to use?

I think that from now on I will rely on the LBMA Precious Metals Prices, which are the prices of physical metals which trade in London. The trades are among the 150 or so LBMA members which includes miners, refiners, fabricators, central banks, etc. They are trading tonnes of metal at a time.

I'm pretty sure the COMEX price is the near-term futures prices, because they only trade options or futures on the COMEX, not physical silver, as far as I understand it. So I don't know why people call it the spot price. It seems like a misnomer. It is more like a prediction of what the price will be next month when the futures contract expires, no?

See Understanding and Pricing COMEX Gold Options

The only downside to the LBMA price is there are only two prices per day for Gold (AM and PM) and one for Silver, and the price is only made available to the public after midnight. So a delay. If anyone has another explanation for what the various prices represent I'd like to hear it.

09-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1677 PM 1673-------Silver 16.89
10-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1657 PM 1656-------Silver 17.07
11-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1663 PM 1654-------Silver 17.02
12-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1637 PM 1571-------Silver 16.53
13-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1588 PM 1563-------Silver 15.77

16-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1505 PM 1488-------Silver 12.96
17-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1472 PM 1536-------Silver 12.44
18-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1506 PM 1498-------Silver 12.42
19-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1481 PM 1474-------Silver 12.00
20-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1504 PM 1494-------Silver 12.63

23-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1494 PM 1525-------Silver 12.51
23-Mar-2020-------Gold AM 1599 PM 1606-------Silver 13.62

So according to LBMA, Gold was above 1600 two weeks ago, then dipped below 1600 on Thursday the 12th March. Last week, it dipped below 1500 a few times. Then yesterday, Tuesday the 24th, the PM price is back over 1600.

And Silber, which dropped to 12.00 last week, has rebounded to 13.62
"There seems to be many prices of Gold. Which one to use?"
There are only two prices that concern us ….
- what we can currently buy it at
- what we can currently sell it at

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