Why did the Futures open flat?

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shuresm7b1
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Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by shuresm7b1 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:25 am

With the biggest stimulus in the history of the United States passing, why are the Futures opening flat but yet they had a historic run up yesterday. This reeks of inside information. Am I missing something?

yohac
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by yohac » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:26 am

As always, "buy the rumor, sell the news."

rascott
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by rascott » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:32 am

It really isn't news that that this was going to pass.... in some form. And it was going be gigantic.

dukeblue219
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by dukeblue219 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:32 am

shuresm7b1 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:25 am
With the biggest stimulus in the history of the United States passing, why are the Futures opening flat but yet they had a historic run up yesterday. This reeks of inside information. Am I missing something?
It's not inside information. Everyone knew the stimulus was going to pass based on the news flow yesterday. If you waited for an actual agreement it was far too late.

Second, futures were way up overnight, and have only recently (7am and later) gone back to flat or negative.

Gufomel
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by Gufomel » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:34 am

The market is a bet on the future. The market made a very large bet yesterday that the bill would be signed, and it was. No inside information required.

J295
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by J295 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:37 am

shuresm7b1 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:25 am
With the biggest stimulus in the history of the United States passing, why are the Futures opening flat but yet they had a historic run up yesterday. This reeks of inside information. Am I missing something?
Yes, you are missing something…

1. We can’t pinpoint one thing or another for most day-to-day market movements. Headlines and articles stating the reason for this for that movement every day are nearly always gibberish in my opinion.
2. You know what happened in the market yesterday… There was no stimulus passed at that time… So, using your logic, it should’ve been down significantly yesterday , and then up signs today on the actual passage… The market, if you believe in an efficient market, had already priced in before today the extremely high probability that something would be passed this week in terms of a stimulus.
3. Passing a stimulus is one of many factors the market is pricing, and that its actors are taking action upon.

cableguy
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by cableguy » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:41 am

People will spend the next 24 hours reading what was actually passed. If hotels, restaurants, airlines, are basically out of business for the next 60 days, does anything in this bill help them? Is there concrete evidence that they will stay alive? If not....these industries...and the markets overall....will get rocked again in the next day or so.

jebmke
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by jebmke » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:47 am

Not to worry; there is more downside than upside still. You will still get your TLH opportunities.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

livesoft
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by livesoft » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:52 am

yohac wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:26 am
As always, "buy the rumor, sell the news."
I was going to post the same thing. :thumbsup
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Hockey10
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by Hockey10 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:58 am

Trying to figure out the futures is like predicting which way a football will bounce. Futures can instantly turn negative or positive on any type of news. In other words, don't waste your time following them.

guyinlaw
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by guyinlaw » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:13 am

Yesterday 10% up took into account for the stimulus. Today will likely be a flat day waiting for unemployment numbers on Thursday.

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Sheepdog
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by Sheepdog » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:15 am

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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JoeRetire
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by JoeRetire » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:35 am

shuresm7b1 wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:25 am
This reeks of inside information.
Insider?

The market rose yesterday in anticipation of today's actions.

But I guess we each have our favorite conspiracies.
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Topic Author
shuresm7b1
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Re: Why did the Futures open flat?

Post by shuresm7b1 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:59 am

Thanks for the great explanations. I really appreciate it.

Regarding small businesses, I heard they were giving them loans and not free money. So if the company has no profits say during a 3 month period, while giving a loan to keep them open could keep them in business, surely it will put them in the hole and not actually make them whole, yes? So I guess this could keep them in the game but leave them bruised for a while as they have to pay it back when profits begin.

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