The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
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StormShadow
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by StormShadow » Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:49 am

Sigz wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:18 pm
Ugh..

Someone please tell me that my 30 year old self will be fine. I'm staying the course. I just can't stop listening and reading this horrible market news. Futures looking GRIM again for 3/19.
Your 30 year old self will be fine. Stay the course, my friend.

You know, I think I'm having the opposite problem. I did some rebalancing yesterday, and I'm biting my nails about rebalancing some more tomorrow since the news is only getting worse. Part of me wants to open a brokerage account and start buying all these cheap stocks with my emergency fund! So many of these amazing companies at really low prices. Disney and Starbucks getting absolutely pummeled! I feel like I'll never have another opportunity to buy like this.

Of course, the Boglehead part of me tells me that would be a really bad idea.

So instead of opening a brokerage account... today I made some early car and student loan payments (both with interest rates 4+%). Gotta say, it felt pretty good. :beer

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by b.lock » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:14 am

I'm 30, 100% stocks. Watching the markets tank has been a little unsettling but I'm no where close to selling. I checked the S&P500 last Monday morning and saw it was down 7% and triggered a circuit breaker, and I laughed out loud at how absurd that seemed. I have a few months emergency fund so that helps. One thing I learned is that you don't want to be building your emergency fund during a recession, if you can help it. I wish my emergency fund had a couple more months of savings in it just to be safe, but I realized now is not the preferred time to invest in an emergency fund, because if stocks are cheap right now I should be investing in stocks.

I am planning on staying the course and letting my auto-investments go in every 2 weeks as usual to buy more Fidelity Total Market Index. I think we have a strong economy full of bright people who want to work and solve problems, and I am definitely optimistic for the future.

zwzhang
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by zwzhang » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:13 am

lock.that.stock wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:30 pm
zwzhang wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:50 pm
CryingHawaiian wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:36 am
Futures poised for another bad day tomorrow. I just don't care anymore :beer
We have 25 years living expenses in safe money. We will never touch that, and I sleep well. :beer
I bought a little VTI with our extra cash 3 days ago.
Out of curiosity, where do you have your 25 year funds invested?
Aggregate Bond Index fund, GIC(CD) and cash.

I am a Canadian. I have a pension, after that and CPP (Like SS in USA), we only need to withdraw no more than 2% from our portfolio.

vipertom1970
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by vipertom1970 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:37 am

I think CDC will be announcing some good news today on very promising vaccine.

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lock.that.stock
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by lock.that.stock » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:00 am

zwzhang wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:13 am
lock.that.stock wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:30 pm
zwzhang wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:50 pm
CryingHawaiian wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:36 am
Futures poised for another bad day tomorrow. I just don't care anymore :beer
We have 25 years living expenses in safe money. We will never touch that, and I sleep well. :beer
I bought a little VTI with our extra cash 3 days ago.
Out of curiosity, where do you have your 25 year funds invested?
Aggregate Bond Index fund, GIC(CD) and cash.

I am a Canadian. I have a pension, after that and CPP (Like SS in USA), we only need to withdraw no more than 2% from our portfolio.
A fellow Canadian! Bond ETFs have under-performed lately which got me worried. I have also been pondering GICs these days. Any specific duration or financial institution you'd recommend?
Last edited by lock.that.stock on Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

matti
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by matti » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:18 am

BogleMelon wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:46 pm
I am over 40 years and this is my first crash. I wasn't in the market (investing was difficult in my home country before coming to the US) when the other crashes happened. I am late on retirement funds, thus talking serious risk (around 80% stocks). A post like this is what I need right now.
According to my IPS I should even increase my ratio to 82% (which I almost did) since I am getting away from my retirement (the more I accumulate the more I decrease the risk and vise versa). I am being tested for the first time, so wish me luck!
Thanks for starting this thread.
Hi! I'm 40 and in a somewhat similar boat. I was invested in 2008, but didn't have much saved up at that point. I'm at 83% stocks and certainly don't like the chaos right now, but I'm hanging in there. Like you, this is really the first time I've been "tested." But I continue to stay the course.

Good luck!

zwzhang
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by zwzhang » Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:24 am

lock.that.stock wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:00 am
zwzhang wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:13 am
lock.that.stock wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:30 pm
zwzhang wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:50 pm
CryingHawaiian wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:36 am
Futures poised for another bad day tomorrow. I just don't care anymore :beer
We have 25 years living expenses in safe money. We will never touch that, and I sleep well. :beer
I bought a little VTI with our extra cash 3 days ago.
Out of curiosity, where do you have your 25 year funds invested?
Aggregate Bond Index fund, GIC(CD) and cash.

I am a Canadian. I have a pension, after that and CPP (Like SS in USA), we only need to withdraw no more than 2% from our portfolio.
A fellow Canadian! Bond ETFs have under-performed lately which got me worried. I have also been pondering GICs these days. Any specific duration or financial institution you'd recommend?
VAB (Vanguard Canadian Aggregate Bond Index ETF) trades at 6% discount now. It is crazy, and I have never seen this happened to bond ETF, not even in 2008. But I do not trade it, so not worried.

I maintain a 5 years GIC ladder. When the time to find the next 5 years GIC, I just take the highest rate third party offer listed on my brokerage, after checking the issuer is insured by CDIC.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by chuckb84 » Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:55 pm

I looked again today, and my 60/40 allocation had drifted to 52/48. It's the simplest 3 fund setup, 40/48/12 VTBLX, VTSAX, and VTIAX, and is now at 48/42/10, so I decided to rebalance halfway back to the IPS set point.

I'll keep doing this in increments if the market keeps going down. A careful review of our finances reassured me that --essential-- expenses are covered by two SS checks and an inflation-indexed pension.

In truth, I should probably buy more stock faster, but this is consistent with the IPS plan, so that's that. It was psychologically harder to buy stocks on the downswing now that we're retired. However, what's a plan for, if you don't follow it?

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Independent George » Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:54 pm

Sigz wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:18 pm
Ugh..

Someone please tell me that my 30 year old self will be fine. I'm staying the course. I just can't stop listening and reading this horrible market news. Futures looking GRIM again for 3/19.
You will be fine. In descending order of importance, the things to worry about right now are (1) your health (2) the health of your loved ones, (3) your job/income.

Your portfolio? Not so much.

I was 31 when the crisis hit in 2008. I purchased my condo in 2007. My net worth went from $100k to -$20k in the span of about three months. I wasn't worried about my portfolio then, and I'm even less worried now.

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Pillar 2. When All Else Fails, Fall Back on Simplicity.

Post by Rowan Oak » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:06 am

Jack Bogle: There are an infinite number of strategies worse than this one:
Commit, over a period of a few years, half of your assets to a stock index fund and half to a bond index fund. Ignore interim fluctuations in their net asset values. Hold your positions for as long as you live, subject only to infrequent and marginal adjustments as your circumstances change. When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one.

Pillar 2. When All Else Fails, Fall Back on Simplicity.

http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-cont ... -27-01.pdf
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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siamond
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by siamond » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:26 am

chuckb84 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:55 pm
In truth, I should probably buy more stock faster, but this is consistent with the IPS plan, so that's that. It was psychologically harder to buy stocks on the downswing now that we're retired. However, what's a plan for, if you don't follow it?
Indeed. (emphasis is mine)

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by cashboy » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:00 pm

the seas are calmer today,

and though there are storm clouds on the horizon,

i am still staying the course.
Three-Fund Portfolio: FSPSX - FXAIX - FXNAX (with slight tilt of CDs - CASH - Canned Beans - Rice - Bottled Water)

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by lostdog » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:16 pm

At 40% down and still contributing to our portfolio as scheduled.

Staying the course as usual.

It's rough but it is what it is.

Looking forward to the recovery and coming back to this thread and thanking my old self for staying in.

Stay strong all!
Global Market Cap Equity | 6 Months Cash | Staying The Course

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:26 pm

What If You Buy Stocks Too Early During a Market Crash?
Posted March 20, 2020 by Ben Carlson
Just remember that you’ll never buy at the exact bottom. That’s not how these things work. You’ll either be early or late but trying to pick when that bottom will come is a fool’s errand.

There are no all-clear signals during a market crash. Perfect is the enemy of good when putting money to work during a sell-off.

I would rather be kicking myself in the short-run for jumping in too early than kicking myself in the long-run for never putting my money to work in the first place.

Regardless of when you buy or rebalance into the pain of a falling market, time is your friend and patience is the ultimate equalizer.
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:37 am

27 Things to Do Now
Jonathan Clements | March 21, 2020
TIMES LIKE THESE test the mettle of investors. Want to pass the test? Here are 27 things to do now:

1. Keep buying stocks. Remember your regret at failing to load up on bargain-priced shares in early 2009? Don’t make that mistake again.

2. If you’re panicked and tempted to dump stocks, talk to a friend or, alternatively, hire a financial advisor—one required to act as a fiduciary—to coach you through this decline.

2. Ponder what makes you happy. There are all kinds of things we suddenly can’t do—travel, eat out, go to concerts, attend sporting events. Which ones do you miss the most? Once life returns to normal, use those insights to guide your future spending.

...
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

Leesbro63
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Leesbro63 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:07 am

Thank you for the Jonathan Clements piece, above. I like reading what “Boglehead gurus” have to say during turmoil. I hope we hear from Rick Ferri, Dr. Bernstein, Allan Roth and even the curiously missing Warren Buffett.

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max12377
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by max12377 » Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:28 pm

Leesbro63 wrote:
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:07 am
Thank you for the Jonathan Clements piece, above. I like reading what “Boglehead gurus” have to say during turmoil. I hope we hear from Rick Ferri, Dr. Bernstein, Allan Roth and even the curiously missing Warren Buffett.
Agreed. Thank you.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by CoastalWinds » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:53 pm

Here is one reason why we should stay calm... cuz this ain’t happening in the US. The net over-the-head was a nice touch.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dksf/status/ ... 34881?s=21

EnjoyIt
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by EnjoyIt » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:36 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:53 pm
Here is one reason why we should stay calm... cuz this ain’t happening in the US. The net over-the-head was a nice touch.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dksf/status/ ... 34881?s=21
This is "The Calm Post"

The authorities stayed calm during the whole event.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by oneleaf » Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:14 pm

I sort of remember, during the GFC, I was pretty worried during the first 30-40% drop. After that, I got strangely relaxed. I am starting to feel that way now.

Overall, I have done pretty good over the years. However, for some unlucky reason, my worst performers have always been in my Roth, which should ideally be your best performing account. This experience is making it even worse, but in a way, I feel like I needed this to finally give no sh%ts about my Roths (me and my wife's) anymore. Once S&P500 gets to -50% drawdown (and expecting other asset classes to possibly do worse), I am going to go 33% PXH, 33% AVUV, 33% AVDV (Em Value, US SV, and Dev ex-US SV), and stick with it to the bitter end. I still have 40% bonds in there so that is my dry powder.

Honestly, I still find it strange, being from an Asian country who dealt with SARS and still have friends and family in several Asian countries... most people there treat this as pretty temporary. They are used to wearing masks and moving on with their lives. Meanwhile, the West is treating this like Armageddon. I almost wish I was back over there...

I've already seen multiple advice from experts telling people to wash your hands, avoid big crowds, and "don't wear a mask", followed by a lot of knowing laughter... I honestly don't get that. If everyone wears a mask, I feel like it has to be better than nothing.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:11 pm

Rick Ferri (from his Twitter account 5:40 PM · Mar 22, 2020):
It’s very difficult to stay unemotional when you’re losing money and people around you are losing their minds. That’s why you created a written investment plan, so you can review what your logical self would do - and do it.
https://twitter.com/Rick_Ferri/status/1 ... 9033304065
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:16 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:53 pm
Here is one reason why we should stay calm... cuz this ain’t happening in the US. The net over-the-head was a nice touch.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dksf/status/ ... 34881?s=21
You’re right, in the US the police would have had guns and they would have almost certainly fired on him.

Give me the net-over-the-head any day.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Deuces8855 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:23 pm

Chloroquine and Hydrochloroquine (considered a bit safer) are both currently taken right now in America for autoimmune diseases and arthritis. Its used in the military as well when they go into areas that have malaria.

Been reading online for a week now. There can be some stomach discomfort and nightmare side effects. The more long term serious side effects (blindness) are if your taking the drug long term. Many people that take it long term have yearly eye exams and most don't run into problems. Short term 6-7 day treatment shouldn't cause any serious problems. This is a drug been around for 60 years or so.

My understanding is its being used off label in america right now, and its helping. NY is using a larger supply of the drug starting Tuesday. Even if at the very least it treats minor cases, that allows hospitals to treat major cases and over the next couple of weeks we can slowly get back to business. As someone said in another thread. China and South Korea are getting back to business in two months. That would put our timeframe around mid April, and we can slowly get back to business starting then. Lets hope, the next two weeks will tell us alot. Will be the difference between recovering second half 2020, or much later.
Last edited by Deuces8855 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by burgrat » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:24 pm

oneleaf wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:14 pm
I've already seen multiple advice from experts telling people to wash your hands, avoid big crowds, and "don't wear a mask", followed by a lot of knowing laughter... I honestly don't get that. If everyone wears a mask, I feel like it has to be better than nothing.
If nothing else, it's a good reminder not to touch your face so much. But it probably will just lead to more adjusting and touching, etc. You can't win! :oops:

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burgrat
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by burgrat » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:27 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:53 pm
Here is one reason why we should stay calm... cuz this ain’t happening in the US. The net over-the-head was a nice touch.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dksf/status/ ... 34881?s=21
That is a training video as noted in comments. The net to the head did remind me of a cartoon dog catcher!

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by CryingHawaiian » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:26 pm

CryingHawaiian wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:36 am
Futures poised for another bad day tomorrow. I just don't care anymore :beer
Futures poised for another really bad day tomorrow. I'm beginning to care... in the sense that I need to purchase more equities to maintain my pre-determined asset allocation. :beer
You get what you get and you don’t get upset

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Rowan Oak
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Rowan Oak » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:56 pm

Jim Dahle (The White Coat Investor):
My foresight is terrible. That's why I have a written investment plan that doesn't depend on it. If you would like to know how yours is, keep a journal of your predictions. If you're like me, you'll quickly realize how cloudy your crystal ball is.
11:25 AM · Mar 23, 2020
https://twitter.com/WCInvestor/status/1 ... 1513823232
“If you can get good at destroying your own wrong ideas, that is a great gift.” – Charlie Munger

Sigz
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Sigz » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:32 pm

Big green day today, but I don't care.

Nothing really matters right now, yesterday, or tomorrow. I will say - it was nice to see a big positive day in the news for once... but it could all change tomorrow, or not.

Staying the course....

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by Scott S » Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:47 pm

Checking in. This is the first time I've seen my AA get knocked 8% off its target! I have a habit (perhaps bad) of rebalancing frequently, so it has rarely gotten the chance to get more than a couple percent out of whack in the 10 years I've had a Vanguard account.

Rebalancing has allowed me to "do something" over the last couple of weeks (so thankful to have made a plan long ago that includes steps to take when things are good or bad.) I'm veering from my original plan in one respect, though: some car issues a few months ago and recent events hitting my industry have convinced me that it may be good to have an emergency fund, after all. So rather than investing every unused cent, I'm allowing some cash to build up in the old savings account. Better late than never?

Anyways, thank you max12377 for starting this thread. I've mentioned elsewhere that this forum doesn't just exist to provide information. (There's a wiki for that.) Rather, a lot of the value is in encouraging each other (newbies and long-time BHs) to stay the course. :sharebeer
My Plan: (Age-10)% in bonds until I reach age 60, 50/50 thereafter. Equity split: 50/50 US/Int'l, Bond split: 50/50 TBM/TIPS.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by LorieBH » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:43 am

I'm staying the course.

Today I looked and saw that I just hit my rebalancing band(s), so I rebalanced out of bonds and into equities to get back to my preferred asset allocation. I think Vanguard executes the trade at the end of the day tomorrow.

So the market jumps tomorrow before my trade executes I'm not going to be upset, and if it falls further before my trade executes I'm not going to jump for joy. I'm going to stick to my bands, and check them every once in awhile.

Many thanks to the Boglehead forum folks, I'm sleeping well.

:)

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by bearcub » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:13 am

I am in a Balanced fund + the two Vanguard TIPS Funds. This way the fund stays at it"s stock + bond %. A forced calm I imagine. Did go "wild" and bought some KHC last week. Some folks were saying they might go under. I don"t think so.

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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by LadyGeek » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:29 am

Several off-topic posts related to coronavirus have been removed.

Please stay on-topic, which is the investing aspects.
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Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

Post by goblue100 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:55 am

This is going to sound a little strange, but I was thinking of retiring in 2021 but I was very nervous about it. Now, I've stayed the course through the recent turmoil and my portfolio has suffered accordingly. But, even though I have less money than I did, I think I'm more confident about retiring than I was. I suppose this could change with further declines, but for now, for me, the specter of a crash was worse than the reality.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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