[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

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quantAndHold
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by quantAndHold » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:01 am

Mr. Rumples wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:47 am
Yesterday, I posted that the Charlotte Observer reported that Mecklenburg County (including Charlotte) NC was refusing to release their statistical data on infections. Later that day, they did. They have 80 cases, almost one in every zip code and those over 60 years old make up 17.5% of the cases. Half are for people under 30 with one 19 year old.
So they’re currently roughly on par with San Francisco for both population and number of cases. San Francisco has been under a stay at home order for a week.

When all this is done and dusted, it will be interesting to see how things turn out in different locations.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

quantAndHold
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by quantAndHold » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am

ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:22 am
Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 am
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:39 am


4% CFR seems quite high and they should focus on the Infection Fatality Rate, not the CFR. The last study I saw estimated an IRF of %0.2 - https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-ca ... ity-rates/. IRF is more important than CFR since a lot of people are asymptomatic and/or not tested.

So if 75% of America gets it, that would be about 500k deaths. Still a staggering number that is tough to imagine but drastically less than 10 million
To put that in perspective, that would be 10 times a "bad" season flu season. Even worse is the number of health care professionals who would be among the victims. It sounds like some Americans are willing to sacrifice the "brightest and best" of our healthcare system because they can't stay home for more than 2 weeks.
Also it doesn’t take into account that fatality rate is several times worse when the health system gets overwhelmed.
That's a good point. I still think over 10 million US deaths seems way overblown based on the data thus far but the numbers can quickly get staggering.
Agree. 10M seems like a worst case, we did everything possible wrong number. I don’t think we’re there, because I don’t think we’ll do everything wrong. But we seem to be capable of doing quite a lot wrong, so for me, all bets are currently off.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

GCD
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GCD » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:08 am

surfstar wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:00 am
Unemployment?
I'm not currently up on the reality of collecting unemployment. But about 35 years ago I had a roommate that took about 4 months to get his unemployment rolling due to all kinds of administrative hiccups.

I think people working under-the-table are going to have trouble documenting their job loss. How big is the "gray" employment market?

I think many low wage workers don't file income tax returns and may miss out on the government handout (which I think is going to be based on 2018 tax returns). These are the very people likely to not have an emergency fund, etc.

Turbo29
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Turbo29 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:17 am

surfstar wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:00 am


Unemployment?
Getting 2/3 of your pay while not driving anywhere, dining out, etc, should go a long ways towards keeping you/your family fed. Add in whatever type of check the Feds will send you and I don't see how this becomes this critical, this quickly for a majority of laid off workers.
Getting the jobs back - now that will be a harder, longer process.
Keeping food on the table? Families should be able to cope; even "paycheck to paycheck" ones.
Depends on the state. Maximum unemployment in my state is $240/wk; ~$1000/mo. That won't even pay rent or mortgage for most people.
It is by the goodness of God that in our country we have those three unspeakably precious things: freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, and the prudence never to practice either of them. --M. Twain

ThankYouJack
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am

quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:22 am
Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 am
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:39 am


4% CFR seems quite high and they should focus on the Infection Fatality Rate, not the CFR. The last study I saw estimated an IRF of %0.2 - https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-ca ... ity-rates/. IRF is more important than CFR since a lot of people are asymptomatic and/or not tested.

So if 75% of America gets it, that would be about 500k deaths. Still a staggering number that is tough to imagine but drastically less than 10 million
To put that in perspective, that would be 10 times a "bad" season flu season. Even worse is the number of health care professionals who would be among the victims. It sounds like some Americans are willing to sacrifice the "brightest and best" of our healthcare system because they can't stay home for more than 2 weeks.
Also it doesn’t take into account that fatality rate is several times worse when the health system gets overwhelmed.
That's a good point. I still think over 10 million US deaths seems way overblown based on the data thus far but the numbers can quickly get staggering.
Agree. 10M seems like a worst case, we did everything possible wrong number. I don’t think we’re there, because I don’t think we’ll do everything wrong. But we seem to be capable of doing quite a lot wrong, so for me, all bets are currently off.
Are any experts predicting anywhere close to 10M US deaths?

nigel_ht
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:41 am

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:28 am
Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 am
It sounds like some Americans are willing to sacrifice the "brightest and best" of our healthcare system because they can't stay home for more than 2 weeks.
A significant portion of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Their choices are to stay home and go hungry or find some work and take a chance on the virus.

It’s easy to stay at home when you have $20K+ in available credit on your cards and a pantry full of food.
This doesn't include all the folks seen on the beaches over the weekend...

EasilyConfused
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by EasilyConfused » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:52 am

nigel_ht wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:41 am
rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:28 am
Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 am
It sounds like some Americans are willing to sacrifice the "brightest and best" of our healthcare system because they can't stay home for more than 2 weeks.
A significant portion of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Their choices are to stay home and go hungry or find some work and take a chance on the virus.

It’s easy to stay at home when you have $20K+ in available credit on your cards and a pantry full of food.
This doesn't include all the folks seen on the beaches over the weekend...
We're talking about two different groups here --

1. The stupid
2. The people who need to work to feed their families

Group #1 needs to be chased off the beaches and back into their homes. Group #2 needs government to either provide them with an income and the supplies they and their families need to get through this, or let them keep working and provide supplies to the vulnerable at home. Unemployment doesn't cut it in most states -- there's an application period and a waiting period, and in a lot of places it isn't much money.

Be judgmental of Group #1 if you want, but Group #2 is justifiably worried about getting what it needs.
Last edited by EasilyConfused on Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am

Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.

rkhusky
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky » Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:59 am

Is there still a requirement for those receiving unemployment to be actively looking for a job? I seem to remember way back when I worked at a hardware store, people coming in for us to sign some form that they had checked for a job at our store.

rkhusky
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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by rkhusky » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:00 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am
Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.
And some states are just starting multi-week lockdowns.

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JonnyDVM
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Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by JonnyDVM » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:02 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:00 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am
Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.
And some states are just starting multi-week lockdowns.
It appears we here in GA will be getting a shelter in place order at 5pm today
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns

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kingsnake
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by kingsnake » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:04 pm

Wisconsin getting the full shut down tomorrow.

Novine
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Novine » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:10 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:59 am
Is there still a requirement for those receiving unemployment to be actively looking for a job? I seem to remember way back when I worked at a hardware store, people coming in for us to sign some form that they had checked for a job at our store.
That's been waived in my state. I can't speak for other states.

The people who are eligible for unemployment will get it one way or another. The bigger problem, as was noted, are all the people who are not eligible for unemployment. Absent some direct cash payments, some of those people are going to be in a bad place quickly.

My earlier comments about those who seem to want to sacrifice health care workers and many others in favor of restarting the economy is directed at the talking heads at the Wall Street Journal and elected officials who seem to have no grasp of the scope of the public health emergency we are facing.

KlangFool
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KlangFool » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:13 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:59 am
Is there still a requirement for those receiving unemployment to be actively looking for a job? I seem to remember way back when I worked at a hardware store, people coming in for us to sign some form that they had checked for a job at our store.
In Virginia, as long as you submit your job application online, you are actively looking for a job.

KlangFool

Cash is King
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:22 am
Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 am


To put that in perspective, that would be 10 times a "bad" season flu season. Even worse is the number of health care professionals who would be among the victims. It sounds like some Americans are willing to sacrifice the "brightest and best" of our healthcare system because they can't stay home for more than 2 weeks.
Also it doesn’t take into account that fatality rate is several times worse when the health system gets overwhelmed.
That's a good point. I still think over 10 million US deaths seems way overblown based on the data thus far but the numbers can quickly get staggering.
Agree. 10M seems like a worst case, we did everything possible wrong number. I don’t think we’re there, because I don’t think we’ll do everything wrong. But we seem to be capable of doing quite a lot wrong, so for me, all bets are currently off.
Are any experts predicting anywhere close to 10M US deaths?
Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.

framus
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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by framus » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:31 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am
Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.
Governor Cuomo discussed sending people back to work in his news conference today. He wasn't talking about a blanket "everybody back to work" policy. He discussed thinking about how to get the economy restarted by having folks who had had the virus and established immunity as those who could begin work roles. He acknowledged this is a difficult, nuanced approach but advocated it as something to seriously consider.

Novine
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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by Novine » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:38 pm

framus wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:31 pm

Governor Cuomo discussed sending people back to work in his news conference today. He wasn't talking about a blanket "everybody back to work" policy. He discussed thinking about how to get the economy restarted by having folks who had had the virus and established immunity as those who could begin work roles. He acknowledged this is a difficult, nuanced approach but advocated it as something to seriously consider.
That might be possible if we could test everyone multiple times to confirm they no longer had the virus. Is that happening anywhere?

ThankYouJack
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:40 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:22 am


Also it doesn’t take into account that fatality rate is several times worse when the health system gets overwhelmed.
That's a good point. I still think over 10 million US deaths seems way overblown based on the data thus far but the numbers can quickly get staggering.
Agree. 10M seems like a worst case, we did everything possible wrong number. I don’t think we’re there, because I don’t think we’ll do everything wrong. But we seem to be capable of doing quite a lot wrong, so for me, all bets are currently off.
Are any experts predicting anywhere close to 10M US deaths?
Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
Why is it worth repeating and comparing to the swine flu? Are any experts expecting it will be less than 12,469 deaths?

KlangFool
Posts: 16159
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KlangFool » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:41 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:22 am


Also it doesn’t take into account that fatality rate is several times worse when the health system gets overwhelmed.
That's a good point. I still think over 10 million US deaths seems way overblown based on the data thus far but the numbers can quickly get staggering.
Agree. 10M seems like a worst case, we did everything possible wrong number. I don’t think we’re there, because I don’t think we’ll do everything wrong. But we seem to be capable of doing quite a lot wrong, so for me, all bets are currently off.
Are any experts predicting anywhere close to 10M US deaths?
Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
Cash is King,

<<According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.>>

Current Coronavirus confirmed case count globally is 362K and the death count is 15K.

KlangFool

Novine
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Novine » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:42 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm

Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
The typical flu season runs about 6 - 8 months. In most of the US, the first confirmed cases were reported this month. The virus is still spreading at an exponential rate. Posts like these won't age well.

KlangFool
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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by KlangFool » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:43 pm

Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:38 pm
framus wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:31 pm

Governor Cuomo discussed sending people back to work in his news conference today. He wasn't talking about a blanket "everybody back to work" policy. He discussed thinking about how to get the economy restarted by having folks who had had the virus and established immunity as those who could begin work roles. He acknowledged this is a difficult, nuanced approach but advocated it as something to seriously consider.
That might be possible if we could test everyone multiple times to confirm they no longer had the virus. Is that happening anywhere?
Novine,

As per all that I had read, it was done in China.

KlangFool

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willthrill81
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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:45 pm

Turbo29 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:08 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am
Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.
The media has loved to sow hysteria because it gets viewers.
The mass media right now is a lot like the boy who cried wolf. They have justly earned a reputation for blowing everything out of proportion. When the real threat of a global pandemic came around, most blew it off as media hype. Initially, I was in that group as well. Many are still very skeptical about the threat, either medically or economically.

We had to really talk with one of my brothers-in-law on Saturday about the seriousness of all of this, not only for his own safety but for that of my 77 year old mother-in-law who lives next door. He's still going to out to work, so he doesn't need close contact with her.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

GCD
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GCD » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 pm

Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:42 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm

Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
The typical flu season runs about 6 - 8 months. In most of the US, the first confirmed cases were reported this month. The virus is still spreading at an exponential rate. Posts like these won't age well.
At this point I think everyone is settled into their positions. I think all the angst ridden posts will be the ones that don't age well. I think we tanked the economy and intruded on civil rights in a huge overreaction.

One side or the other will have the stronger ground a year from now, but I doubt anyone will have a provable "win" for their position. At least not one the other side will be willing to accept.

iceman
Posts: 44
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by iceman » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:53 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:22 am
Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:13 am


To put that in perspective, that would be 10 times a "bad" season flu season. Even worse is the number of health care professionals who would be among the victims. It sounds like some Americans are willing to sacrifice the "brightest and best" of our healthcare system because they can't stay home for more than 2 weeks.
Also it doesn’t take into account that fatality rate is several times worse when the health system gets overwhelmed.
That's a good point. I still think over 10 million US deaths seems way overblown based on the data thus far but the numbers can quickly get staggering.
Agree. 10M seems like a worst case, we did everything possible wrong number. I don’t think we’re there, because I don’t think we’ll do everything wrong. But we seem to be capable of doing quite a lot wrong, so for me, all bets are currently off.
Are any experts predicting anywhere close to 10M US deaths?
I don't think so. The Imperial College study released a few days ago and referenced previously in this thread projected 2.2m deaths if no action at all was taken. However, that number doesn't account for deaths due to other conditions that would have otherwise been treated.

I personally support more drastic action now and not easing up in a week or two. We need to buy time for our medical system. We need to manufacture masks, ventilators, and build makeshift hospital areas. Only when we think we can handle the surge in cases should we start to consider releasing restrictions. Some people are going to die even with the best care, I would agree that seems unavoidable. But we can and should take action as a nation to reduce the deaths of people who would otherwise survive but didn't because they couldn't get the treatment (ventilator) they needed. We also need to be sure we can do everything we can to protect our medical workers as their health also has a direct impact on how many can be treated.

Total (worldwide) deaths went from 4,981 on March 12th to 10,031 on March 19th, doubling in 7 days. As of yesterday it hit 14,467. I'd expect to be at/over 20k by March 26th, doubling again in 7 days. Left unchecked, that rate of growth would lead to over 1m deaths six weeks from now.

That rate will likely not stay constant as different areas of the world take different measures. But without action, the impact of this can be quite extensive.
Last edited by iceman on Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Cash is King
Posts: 200
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:03 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:40 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am


That's a good point. I still think over 10 million US deaths seems way overblown based on the data thus far but the numbers can quickly get staggering.
Agree. 10M seems like a worst case, we did everything possible wrong number. I don’t think we’re there, because I don’t think we’ll do everything wrong. But we seem to be capable of doing quite a lot wrong, so for me, all bets are currently off.
Are any experts predicting anywhere close to 10M US deaths?
Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
Why is it worth repeating and comparing to the swine flu? Are any experts expecting it will be less than 12,469 deaths?
It's worth repeating because we are no where close to swine flu numbers and I hope we don't get there. Not to my knowledge. Are you expecting more than 12,469 deaths? If so, based on what data? I'm trying to suggest a more measured response is warranted based on the data.

Cash is King
Posts: 200
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:04 am

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:05 pm

Novine wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:42 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm

Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
The typical flu season runs about 6 - 8 months. In most of the US, the first confirmed cases were reported this month. The virus is still spreading at an exponential rate. Posts like these won't age well.
Will see.

Novine
Posts: 1240
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2008 9:07 pm

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Novine » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:16 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:03 pm

It's worth repeating because we are no where close to swine flu numbers and I hope we don't get there. Not to my knowledge. Are you expecting more than 12,469 deaths? If so, based on what data? I'm trying to suggest a more measured response is warranted based on the data.
The 2009 swine flu pandemic numbers are based on one year's worth of data. How many people had died from the swine flu in the first month or two of the outbreak?

Why are people expecting more deaths?
- Zero immunity - The older population in 2009 had some level of immunity due to exposure to previous H1N1 strains. In that year, 20% of the population got the swine flu
- No vaccine
- Appears to have a higher fatality rate than the H1N1 strain in 2009, which actually killed fewer people than a typical seasonal flu strain.

The biggest issue is the lack of immunity. Even if it's no deadlier than the flu, if 50% of the population gets it, that means 2.5 - 5 times as many deaths as the seasonal flu with a significant number of additional deaths from people who can't get proper care for other medical problems that would normally be treated properly.

brianH
Posts: 392
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by brianH » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:19 pm

GCD wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 pm
At this point I think everyone is settled into their positions. I think all the angst ridden posts will be the ones that don't age well. I think we tanked the economy and intruded on civil rights in a huge overreaction.

One side or the other will have the stronger ground a year from now, but I doubt anyone will have a provable "win" for their position. At least not one the other side will be willing to accept.
Agreed.

Conveniently, the doomsayers now have the excuse -- when this doesn't result in significantly more deaths than a bad flu season -- that the reason it did not was due to all the interventions put in place during the panic.

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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by jharkin » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:25 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am
Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.
What media? Fox?

What Ive seen is a lot more push in the media begging people to listen to the pleas to stay home. Lots of tape of Andrew Cuomo asking "What part of stay at home didn't you understand???" and calling the people out and about irresponsible.

rgs92
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rgs92 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:33 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm

Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I was thinking the same thing. There is all this talk about how the real scope of the problem is not evident because of the shortage of testing kits, but we know the fatality rate. Although tragic of course, it's a signal that the panic may be overdone.

(It would be good to know how many poor souls are severely ill too to give a broader picture. Oh God, I hate to sound dispassionate, so apologies in advance.)

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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by vested1 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:40 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am
Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.
I don't know which news you're watching but I don't see anyone in the media advocating going back to work other than the big guy, and I won't get into my opinion on those motives. I even googled it and can't find that suggestion anywhere. Maybe I should tune in to a college radio station.

At long last my wife and I can find something that fits into our lifestyle like a hand in a glove. We are homebodies, we are never bored, we are independent, we love to fish, and our house is filled with sustainable hobbies. We are retired, so missing work is something we already didn't do. Don't miss it one bit. We love reading, writing, going on walks, riding the exercise bike, doing puzzles, watching movies, playing video games, feeding the fish, the birds, and the deer. Those wild animals in the yard and the lake might have to wait if we run out of fish, bird, and deer food, but they appear to be somewhat independent as well, so I think they'll manage.

We call and write to freinds and relatives, and use facetime to watch our great granddaughter and her latest antics. The only thing we'll miss is the visitors who were dying (pun intended) to come visit, but that's OK, we'll still be here, and if we're not it will be because we're dead and our kids will get the house and the savings, so mission accomplished. Sorry to disappoint, but we're not bouncing off the walls, that is not until the squash court is installed.

And contrary to the opinion of some here who like to categorize those of us who see the seriousness of this pandemic, we're not full of angst, we're not afraid, we're not fearful of dying, and we're not trying to talk anyone into thinking like us. We like thinking like us, and as a matter fact, we like us. Maybe if more people liked themselves more they would take more precautions (wow, three mores in one sentence). Maybe if they liked other people more they would see the value in taking precautions.

[Comment removed -- mod oldcomputerguy]
Last edited by vested1 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Jags4186 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:41 pm

GCD wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:33 am
IMO, many of these orders are overly broad and go beyond achieving any governmental objective. I also predict a wave of lawsuits from bankrupted or nearly bankrupted businesses that were forced to close.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign ... ted_States

Good luck with those lawsuits. Chance the state or fed allows themselves to be sued? 0.0

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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by Irenaeus » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:52 pm

vested1 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:40 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am
Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.
I don't know which news you're watching but I don't see anyone in the media advocating going back to work other than the big guy, and I won't get into my opinion on those motives. I even googled it and can't find that suggestion anywhere. Maybe I should tune in to a college radio station.

At long last my wife and I can find something that fits into our lifestyle like a hand in a glove. We are homebodies, we are never bored, we are independent, we love to fish, and our house is filled with sustainable hobbies. We are retired, so missing work is something we already didn't do. Don't miss it one bit. We love reading, writing, going on walks, riding the exercise bike, doing puzzles, watching movies, playing video games, feeding the fish, the birds, and the deer. Those wild animals in the yard and the lake might have to wait if we run out of fish, bird, and deer food, but they appear to be somewhat independent as well, so I think they'll manage.

We call and write to freinds and relatives, and use facetime to watch our great granddaughter and her latest antics. The only thing we'll miss is the visitors who were dying (pun intended) to come visit, but that's OK, we'll still be here, and if we're not it will be because we're dead and our kids will get the house and the savings. Sorry to disappoint, but we're not bouncing off the walls, that is not until the squash court is installed.

And contrary to the opinion of some here who like to categorize those of us who see the seriousness of this pandemic, we're not full of angst, we're not afraid, we're not fearful of dying, and we're not trying to talk anyone into thinking like us. We like thinking like us, and as a matter fact, we like us. Maybe if more people liked themselves more they would take more precautions (wow, three mores in one sentence). Maybe if they liked other people more they would see the value in taking precautions.

[Comment removed -- mod oldcomputerguy]
Ah, yes, an attribution, to those with a different opinion, of hatefulness or lack of concern for others. Where have we heard this before? Let's see: if someone believes that race-based and sex-based "Affirmative Action" policies are themselves racist and sexist and harmful to just about everybody, he must be a racist and sexist; if someone opposes open national borders, he must be a xenophobe; if someone believes that Bruce Jenner (yes, I am guilty of dead-naming rather than referring to Jenner by his (there I go mis-gendering with an in-apt pronoun) new name, "Caitlyn") should be disallowed from using a female-only bathroom or locker room, he is a transphobe. Such attributions reveal very uncharitable interpretations.
Last edited by Irenaeus on Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by montanagirl » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:59 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:59 am
Is there still a requirement for those receiving unemployment to be actively looking for a job? I seem to remember way back when I worked at a hardware store, people coming in for us to sign some form that they had checked for a job at our store.

Still in my state, only you do it all online. I remember doing it on paper 40 years ago.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:02 pm

Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:03 pm
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:40 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am
quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:05 am


Agree. 10M seems like a worst case, we did everything possible wrong number. I don’t think we’re there, because I don’t think we’ll do everything wrong. But we seem to be capable of doing quite a lot wrong, so for me, all bets are currently off.
Are any experts predicting anywhere close to 10M US deaths?
Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
Why is it worth repeating and comparing to the swine flu? Are any experts expecting it will be less than 12,469 deaths?
It's worth repeating because we are no where close to swine flu numbers and I hope we don't get there. Not to my knowledge. Are you expecting more than 12,469 deaths? If so, based on what data? I'm trying to suggest a more measured response is warranted based on the data.
Yes, I'm expecting more than 12,469 deaths. It's based on the podcast that I posted upthread with an epidemiologist from John Hopkins talking about how 30-50% of Americans could get this within 12-18 months and he was estimating a CFR of .2-.6%. The podcast is from March 11 so somewhat dated by now. That's why I asked you "Are any experts expecting it will be less than 12,469 deaths?" I'm not trying to win an argument, just wondering if you're getting any of the info from what experts any are predicting.

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Re: eerily quiet in the hood

Post by quantAndHold » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:06 pm

jharkin wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:25 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:57 am
Thegame14 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:22 pm
that is how is needs to be, everyone stay at home!!!
I don't know if you're watching the news, but overnight there is suddenly a big nationwide push in the media [Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy] to send people back to work to save the economy. Before anywhere in the US has even hit a peak they want to send people back to work.
What media? Fox?
There is *one* otherwise well respected epidemiologist who wrote a think piece that suggests that since we don’t know what the population wide fatality rate is, we should wait and see before acting. Other epidemiologists, recognizing the exponential nature of how it’s spreading and the overflowing hospitals of the countries on the forefront of this, have used data and statistics and stuff to refute him. But that didn’t stop economists (not public health experts) from picking up on that initial flawed piece of writing and spreading it far and wide.

I’m thinking this won’t end well.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

Cash is King
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:18 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:02 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:03 pm
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:40 pm
Cash is King wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:27 pm
ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:27 am


Are any experts predicting anywhere close to 10M US deaths?
Nope. In my opinion, it's sensationalism. The Worldometer is reporting 483 deaths as of this morning. It shows only 12 states with new deaths with most reporting 1. New York is reporting 43 which brings their total deaths to 157. That's good news.
I think it's worth repeating. According to the CDC: the Swine flu infected 60.8 million individuals in the US, hospitalized 274,000 people and resulted in 12,469 deaths.
Why is it worth repeating and comparing to the swine flu? Are any experts expecting it will be less than 12,469 deaths?
It's worth repeating because we are no where close to swine flu numbers and I hope we don't get there. Not to my knowledge. Are you expecting more than 12,469 deaths? If so, based on what data? I'm trying to suggest a more measured response is warranted based on the data.
Yes, I'm expecting more than 12,469 deaths. It's based on the podcast that I posted upthread with an epidemiologist from John Hopkins talking about how 30-50% of Americans could get this within 12-18 months and he was estimating a CFR of .2-.6%. The podcast is from March 11 so somewhat dated by now. That's why I asked you "Are any experts expecting it will be less than 12,469 deaths?" I'm not trying to win an argument, just wondering if you're getting any of the info from what experts any are predicting.
I don't have any knowledge on where deaths may end up. I'm not trying to win an argument either or be right . As you know, we have had about 22,000 deaths from the flu this season. Here's the latest from the Worldometer:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:24 pm

A contentious exchange was removed. See General Etiquette:
We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones. Discussions are about issues, not people. If you disagree with an idea, go ahead and marshal all your forces against it. But do not confuse ideas with the person posting them. At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
Please keep the discussion civil.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by abuss368 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:07 pm

Italy is reporting positive news over night per CNBC.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by EasilyConfused » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:24 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:07 pm
Italy is reporting positive news over night per CNBC.
Two days in a row of decreases in new cases and daily deaths. I hope they're starting to get things under control.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:43 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:12 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:04 pm
spidercharm01 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:01 pm
nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:56 pm
Prahasaurus wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:49 pm
To give one example, I think there is a good chance we'll be living under Martian Law in some parts of the country, including New York City.
Whoa :shock:
World is ending...let's sell everything and buy gold, guns. Cash, bonds and stocks will become worthless.

I think I heard this before few times in my life :happy :happy

I am glad I heard investors like warren buffet.
The world is not ending. Life will always go on. But there will almost certainly be some Bogleheads in the next couple weeks lying on their deathbeds in an ICU with severe pneumonia. Painfully gasping for oxygen. Isolated from their loved ones in their final moments, realizing that ultimately their equity to bond ratio didn’t matter at all. I don’t wish such a sad end for anyone.
Did you run any numbers and how do you figure in just a couple (two) weeks? I think we need to put things in perspective but also not be alarmists.

I think there's about 50,000 Bogleheads. That's not that many considering the world's population. Or let's assume they're all in the US.

50k / 2,000k (US adults) = 2.5% of the US adult population

For some (more than 1) let's say that 2 adult deaths * (2,000k) / 50k = 80k adult US deaths in 2 weeks. Looking at the logarithmic charts, the US definitely doesn't seem to be any where this trajectory.

I just ran some quick numbers but definitely hope I'm right and you're wrong on this one
I'm wondering if anyone has any thoughts on this.

Looking at Italy, they had about the same number of deaths as we had 2 weeks ago and they're now up to ~6k. If we follow a similar trajectory, odds are we won't have any Bogleheads be on their death beds in a couple weeks.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ram » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:52 pm

quantAndHold wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:01 am
Mr. Rumples wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:47 am
Yesterday, I posted that the Charlotte Observer reported that Mecklenburg County (including Charlotte) NC was refusing to release their statistical data on infections. Later that day, they did. They have 80 cases, almost one in every zip code and those over 60 years old make up 17.5% of the cases. Half are for people under 30 with one 19 year old.
So they’re currently roughly on par with San Francisco for both population and number of cases. San Francisco has been under a stay at home order for a week.

When all this is done and dusted, it will be interesting to see how things turn out in different locations.
Till then we can use the data from Philadelphia Vs St Louis from 1918 pandemic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... ronavirus/
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:55 pm

EasilyConfused wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:24 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:07 pm
Italy is reporting positive news over night per CNBC.
Two days in a row of decreases in new cases and daily deaths. I hope they're starting to get things under control.
Hope so. The number of deaths in Italy and Spain were so high. :shock:

In Florida the number of deaths is 14, per the first update this morning. The second update will be around 6:00PM. The Tampa Bay Region thus far has had only 1 death (Manatee County). I'm surprised the number is so low for Florida, last update may show many more. Fingers crossed, hoping for the best, for everyone....worldwide.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:13 pm

brianH wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:19 pm
GCD wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:46 pm
At this point I think everyone is settled into their positions. I think all the angst ridden posts will be the ones that don't age well. I think we tanked the economy and intruded on civil rights in a huge overreaction.

One side or the other will have the stronger ground a year from now, but I doubt anyone will have a provable "win" for their position. At least not one the other side will be willing to accept.
Agreed.

Conveniently, the doomsayers now have the excuse -- when this doesn't result in significantly more deaths than a bad flu season -- that the reason it did not was due to all the interventions put in place during the panic.
It won't be a convenient excuse. The interventions are the only thing that can drive down the R0 at this time and prevent overwhelming the healthcase systems which in turn drives the CFR up. All you have to do is look at Wuhan, and Northern Italy, and now Spain and France and NYC. It's not a coincidence that those areas hardest hit first have had to put in place draconian measures to slow the spread.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:18 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:12 pm
50k / 2,000k (US adults) = 2.5% of the US adult population
There are more than 2M adults in the US.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by comcool » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:21 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:43 pm
ThankYouJack wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:12 pm
JonnyDVM wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:04 pm
spidercharm01 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:01 pm
nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:56 pm


Whoa :shock:
World is ending...let's sell everything and buy gold, guns. Cash, bonds and stocks will become worthless.

I think I heard this before few times in my life :happy :happy

I am glad I heard investors like warren buffet.
The world is not ending. Life will always go on. But there will almost certainly be some Bogleheads in the next couple weeks lying on their deathbeds in an ICU with severe pneumonia. Painfully gasping for oxygen. Isolated from their loved ones in their final moments, realizing that ultimately their equity to bond ratio didn’t matter at all. I don’t wish such a sad end for anyone.
Did you run any numbers and how do you figure in just a couple (two) weeks? I think we need to put things in perspective but also not be alarmists.

I think there's about 50,000 Bogleheads. That's not that many considering the world's population. Or let's assume they're all in the US.

50k / 2,000k (US adults) = 2.5% of the US adult population

For some (more than 1) let's say that 2 adult deaths * (2,000k) / 50k = 80k adult US deaths in 2 weeks. Looking at the logarithmic charts, the US definitely doesn't seem to be any where this trajectory.

I just ran some quick numbers but definitely hope I'm right and you're wrong on this one
I'm wondering if anyone has any thoughts on this.

Looking at Italy, they had about the same number of deaths as we had 2 weeks ago and they're now up to ~6k. If we follow a similar trajectory, odds are we won't have any Bogleheads be on their death beds in a couple weeks.
Hopefully someone can check my work, but I think the probability is pretty high actually if we follow along Italy's path. Let's use the 6k for Italy and assume there are 60 mil people there. That means .0001 of the population died at 2 weeks. If we drew a random person 2 weeks earlier, they would have had a (1-.0001)=.9999 chance of survival. Let's assume 50k bogleheads. That would mean we have to run those odds 50k times. ie. .9999^50000=probability that no bogleheads die=.67%. That's a 99.33% chance that at least 1 boglehead dies.
“Son, if you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers.” Homer Simpson

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by rkhusky » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:43 pm

If we continue on the current exponential growth of deaths, we will breech 100,000 dead shortly before 4/15. If that happens, it will be apparent that coronavirus is worse than the seasonal flu.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ram » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:52 pm

ThankYouJack wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:59 am
I still think over 10 million US deaths seems way overblown based on the data thus far but the numbers can quickly get staggering.
I think most experts will agree that the total deaths will depend on how multiple variables play out. These variables will include success with social distancing, infectivity of the virus and what happens to that with mutations, susceptibility of the virus to summer temperature, ability of health care staff to keep up, time taken to get the vaccine, time taken to find a drug if any, success with manufacturing adequate masks, ventilators etc.

As an extreme over simplification, assume:

1)Total deaths in US = A x B x C x D x E x F x G

2) Each of the A, B, C can have a numerical value of 1(best) to 10 (worst)

If one assumes a 10 for each then the answer is 10 raised to seven or 10 million.

If we assumes a 4 for each it will be 16,000

If we assume a 5 for each it will be 78,000

It is unlikely that we will do each thing perfectly but it is also unlikely that we will be a miserable failure (10) on each of these variables. Some of the variables may be non modifiable and for those we will have to accept our luck and others will be modifiable.
Ram

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Cash is King » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:56 pm

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:43 pm
If we continue on the current exponential growth of deaths, we will breech 100,000 dead shortly before 4/15. If that happens, it will be apparent that coronavirus is worse than the seasonal flu.
How so? The worldometer says there is 520 deaths as of now. Between now and the 15th of April is 23 days. 100,000-520=99,480/23=4,325 per day to meet 100,0000 between now and the 15th.

If we wake up tomorrow and the number of deaths is not at 4,845 then do you think will make up the deficit the next day or the day after?

What happens if were only at 1,500 deaths by the end of this week?
Last edited by Cash is King on Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Stinky » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:57 pm

comcool wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:21 pm
Hopefully someone can check my work, but I think the probability is pretty high actually if we follow along Italy's path. Let's use the 6k for Italy and assume there are 60 mil people there. That means .0001 of the population died at 2 weeks. If we drew a random person 2 weeks earlier, they would have had a (1-.0001)=.9999 chance of survival. Let's assume 50k bogleheads. That would mean we have to run those odds 50k times. ie. .9999^50000=probability that no bogleheads die=.67%. That's a 99.33% chance that at least 1 boglehead dies.
That’s proper math.

However, there are about 93,000 users on the BH site. Plus a lot more “lurkers”. So chances that at least one dies is almost certain.
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