S&P500 and Dow Futures Hit Limit Down After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

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Novine
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Novine » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:53 pm

Don't forget that measures to "flatten the curve" also extend it. Over time, that will reduce the number of new cases and deaths each day, but it also extends out the amount of time that the economy is shut down. I personally think that's the right move but it also means that you have to account for the economic impact of that.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by veggivet » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:55 pm

Is this a rerun from last Sunday? :wink:
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by NMBob » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:59 pm

theorist wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:48 pm
I’m pretty surprised. The * timing * of large stimulus to get $$ to support small businesses and laid off hourly workers is clearly important, not just that it eventually occurs. I’d think everyone would know that time is of the essence, and act accordingly.
i simply do not believe any movement in futures is tied to the arguments over the negotiating in a bill which will continue until they know they have to agree. who really thinks there will not be agreement by noon tuesday at the absolute latest and 90 percent probability agreement before midnight tomorrow. anyone... perhaps it has to do with the disease course instead.. who knows...but the idea people are thinking congress will not continue to act very very soon, just don't believe it.
Last edited by NMBob on Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by drk » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:01 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:49 pm
Kenkat wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 pm
It’s gonna be Dow 5,000. Bill Gross will be vindicated!
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:02 pm

This thread is now in the Investing - Theory, News & General forum (news).
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

SandysDad
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by SandysDad » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:17 pm

Buy SPY puts every Friday. The bad news piles up over the weekend, and you make money by Monday.


Confident this strategy will continue to work for a bit more time.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by DonIce » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:25 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:41 pm
DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:30 pm
...
Stimulus packages may help the market recovery once it starts, but people will continue panicking as events happen faster than they expect, as they are sure to do. The number of confirmed US cases has doubled in the past 48 hours.
Which is mostly because of increased testing capacity. People who were infected, but not conclusively tested, were not counted in the confirmed US number. Now more of them will be.

I am not disputing that the actual number of cases in the US is greatly increasing, with the latest estimates being each infected person will, on average, infect 2.3 - 2.5 other people. That is indeed an exponential curve.
True. And the testing is still way behind the curve. Over the coming days we'll continue to see the number of confirmed cases shooting up rapidly, probably faster than the markets are pricing in.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by jello_nailer » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:26 pm

Enzo IX wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Well at least 5% loss of a 70% remaining portfolio is getting to be less of a dollar amount.
:sharebeer
That how I'm looking at it - if and when we get down 50% then these 10% down days will be 1/2 as much money! What a good feeling!
:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

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watchnerd
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by watchnerd » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:26 pm

tim1999 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Ugh. [Deleted - mod olcomputerguy] The good news is that in about 2 more weeks of the current downward trajectory we have been on, the market will be zero and we will not have to worry about it anymore. :annoyed
I could buy so many shares at zero.

Like infinity shares.

And with my 401k match, I could buy:

Infinity + 50%!
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by watchnerd » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:29 pm

Novine wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:53 pm
Don't forget that measures to "flatten the curve" also extend it. Over time, that will reduce the number of new cases and deaths each day, but it also extends out the amount of time that the economy is shut down. I personally think that's the right move but it also means that you have to account for the economic impact of that.
Do you know how much this is going to compress my 401k savings and improve my ROI?

I'll be able to buy like 50% more shares, at least, in a hugely short amount of time.

It will almost be like lump-summing several years of savings contributions into 2 quarters.

And then my ESPP with an additional 10% discount on top of that....Sweet Christmas!
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

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Kenkat
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Kenkat » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:31 pm

Just remember, with shares already down so far, 5% is the new 10%.

Or is it 10% is the new 5%?

Dammit, math is hard. :annoyed

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Hyperchicken » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:33 pm

And if someone wants to convert their traditional IRA into Roth, now is the time.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by CoastalWinds » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:34 pm

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:27 pm
I'm not speculating about future legislation. I'm just questioning the assumption that tonight's futures action will determine tomorrow's closing NAVs.

What if both houses of Congress come to an agreement with the White House on a third phase fiscal measure during market hours?

PJW
I’m sure the market will be unimpressed. Those folks are out of touch with reality.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by DonIce » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm
DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:30 pm
I predict that markets will continue to go down as long as the number of cases continues going up exponentially.
"Good" thing is, exponential growth cannot continue for very much longer. From March 11th to March 21st, the number of US cases increased from 1205 to 23709 (source), which averages to 34% daily growth.

Extrapolating the trend, we arrive at 1.5 million cases in 2 weeks (April 4th), and 328 million cases in a month (April 22nd) - at which point it reaches the entire population of the US. So it's got to start flattening out somewhere before then.
Yep, true. So market bottom will be by mid-April, latest.

There will be continued impacts to the economy due to all the closed businesses, social distancing, etc, but after the virus stops exponential growth I believe the market will have these mostly priced in correctly so releases of abysmal GDP and unemployment numbers won't cause further large downward moves.

A lot of other countries are gonna be on their own exponential curves that are several weeks delayed. I would bet the number of cases in the developing world is drastically undercounted right now and the virus is already spreading like wildfire through most of South and Central America, Africa, SE Asia, and India. Huge numbers coming out of those countries could impact the market but probably not much as stock markets (even foreign stock markets) tend to be dominantly affected by events in the US.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Seasonal » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:38 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm
DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:30 pm
I predict that markets will continue to go down as long as the number of cases continues going up exponentially.
"Good" thing is, exponential growth cannot continue for very much longer. From March 11th to March 21st, the number of US cases increased from 1205 to 23709 (source), which averages to 34% daily growth.

Extrapolating the trend, we arrive at 1.5 million cases in 2 weeks (April 4th), and 328 million cases in a month (April 22nd) - at which point it reaches the entire population of the US. So it's got to start flattening out somewhere before then.

What the market is going to do is at this point anyone's guess, of course.
Approximately 33% daily growth seems typical. Have you seen the FT chart?

As Herbert Stein famously said, if something cannot go on forever it will stop.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by watchnerd » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:46 pm

DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm


Yep, true. So market bottom will be by mid-April, latest.
I'm calling the bottom on my birthday, April 16.

I'll expect to have a great rebalancing day!

Since I can't go on vacation, maybe I'll throw in this year's vacation spending money, too.
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by RedDog » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:48 pm

Angst wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:24 pm
This is getting old
Typical Congressional brinksmanship/negotiation tactics. I'd only have been shocked if a bill of this size had moved smoothly through.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by nps » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:48 pm

DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm
Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm
Extrapolating the trend, we arrive at 1.5 million cases in 2 weeks (April 4th), and 328 million cases in a month (April 22nd) - at which point it reaches the entire population of the US. So it's got to start flattening out somewhere before then.
Yep, true. So market bottom will be by mid-April, latest.
What makes you think that the number of coronavirus cases or the infection curve is the only variable that determines when the bottom will be reached? It could be much later, even if a coronavirus peak is behind us.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by dbadalam » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:50 pm

Why does everyone talk as if we are close to the bottom already? I thought events this devastating last for months or maybe even over a year. Arn’t we just at the beginning? How can you have a recession that lasts for a couple of weeks? The job losses haven’t started yet. Businesses are just starting to close in a few states. I know nothing, so I’m trying to learn.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by HEDGEFUNDIE » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 pm

dbadalam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:50 pm
Why does everyone talk as if we are close to the bottom already? I thought events this devastating last for months or maybe even over a year. Arn’t we just at the beginning? How can you have a recession that lasts for a couple of weeks? The job losses haven’t started yet. Businesses are just starting to close in a few states. I know nothing, so I’m trying to learn.
Back in 2009 the stock market bottomed out in March but the Recession (as defined by shrinking GDP) did not end until Q2, and employment did not regain its prior high until 2014.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Jim180 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 pm

If America gets back to work the bleeding in the market might stop but if the shutdown is extended another 15 days the bleeding continues.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 pm

Rat_Race wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:50 pm
Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm
DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:30 pm
I predict that markets will continue to go down as long as the number of cases continues going up exponentially.
"Good" thing is, exponential growth cannot continue for very much longer. From March 11th to March 21st, the number of US cases increased from 1205 to 23709 (source), which averages to 34% daily growth.

Extrapolating the trend, we arrive at 1.5 million cases in 2 weeks (April 4th), and 328 million cases in a month (April 22nd) - at which point it reaches the entire population of the US. So it's got to start flattening out somewhere before then.

And how many dead?
Using current "worldometer" numbers, it's currently coming in with a CFR of about ~1.3% in the USA. The death rate will, most assuredly, go UP if hospitals were to become overwhelmed. Could be a lot of pain going forward - the financial part of it being next to nothing. :(

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by drk » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:54 pm

dbadalam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:50 pm
Why does everyone talk as if we are close to the bottom already? I thought events this devastating last for months or maybe even over a year. Arn’t we just at the beginning? How can you have a recession that lasts for a couple of weeks? The job losses haven’t started yet. Businesses are just starting to close in a few states. I know nothing, so I’m trying to learn.
There’s no reason to expect the market’s bottom and the event’s apex to coincide.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by c_is_for_cow » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:54 pm

Enzo IX wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Well at least 5% loss of a 70% remaining portfolio is getting to be less of a dollar amount.
:twisted:

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by ReformedSpender » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:56 pm

dbadalam wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:50 pm
Why does everyone talk as if we are close to the bottom already? I thought events this devastating last for months or maybe even over a year. Arn’t we just at the beginning? How can you have a recession that lasts for a couple of weeks? The job losses haven’t started yet. Businesses are just starting to close in a few states. I know nothing, so I’m trying to learn.
10 years of relatively quick V shape recoveries have made the masses complacent
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by nps » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:59 pm

Rosencrantz1 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:53 pm
Rat_Race wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:50 pm
And how many dead?
Using current "worldometer" numbers, it's currently coming in with a CFR of about ~1.3% in the USA. The death rate will, most assuredly, go UP if hospitals were to become overwhelmed. Could be a lot of pain going forward - the financial part of it being next to nothing. :(
It may also go down with higher levels of PCR testing, or eventually with antibody testing.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by DonIce » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:04 pm

nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:48 pm
DonIce wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 pm
Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:42 pm
Extrapolating the trend, we arrive at 1.5 million cases in 2 weeks (April 4th), and 328 million cases in a month (April 22nd) - at which point it reaches the entire population of the US. So it's got to start flattening out somewhere before then.
Yep, true. So market bottom will be by mid-April, latest.
What makes you think that the number of coronavirus cases or the infection curve is the only variable that determines when the bottom will be reached? It could be much later, even if a coronavirus peak is behind us.
The answer was literally the next couple of sentences of my post that you quoted...

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by veggivet » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:07 pm

Perhaps this down move is the market pricing in the jobs report due out Thursday, which will likely be a 3 comma number starting with a 2, setting a new record.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Hyperchicken » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:08 pm

veggivet wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Perhaps this down move is the market pricing in the jobs report due out Thursday, which will likely be a 3 comma number starting with a 2, setting a new record.
2,000,000,000?? :shock:

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by drk » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:09 pm

veggivet wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Perhaps this down move is the market pricing in the jobs report due out Thursday, which will likely be a 3 comma number starting with a 2, setting a new record.
That would be impressive considering that there are only two commas in the US population number.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by dmcmahon » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:12 pm

tim1999 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Ugh. [Deleted - mod olcomputerguy] The good news is that in about 2 more weeks of the current downward trajectory we have been on, the market will be zero and we will not have to worry about it anymore. :annoyed
I'm starting to think that's where it's headed. Market closes for the day after two time outs right? Play that forward day after day and eventually they'll have to just shut it down for the duration, as no one knows the value of anything.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by justsomeguy2018 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:12 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:08 pm
veggivet wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Perhaps this down move is the market pricing in the jobs report due out Thursday, which will likely be a 3 comma number starting with a 2, setting a new record.
2,000,000,000?? :shock:
We're in a lot of trouble if we lose 2 billion jobs. Even my future grandkids that don't exist yet won't have jobs.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by nps » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:17 pm

dmcmahon wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:12 pm
tim1999 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Ugh. [Deleted - mod olcomputerguy] The good news is that in about 2 more weeks of the current downward trajectory we have been on, the market will be zero and we will not have to worry about it anymore. :annoyed
I'm starting to think that's where it's headed. Market closes for the day after two time outs right? Play that forward day after day and eventually they'll have to just shut it down for the duration, as no one knows the value of anything.
Yes. Third stop halts trading for the day. That hasn't happened once in this downturn yet. Nor has a Level 2 stop for that matter.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by geo5000 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:20 pm

I realize this is a financial/investment forum, I’m just stunned at the lack sympathy some of these people have for their fellow Americans who are about to face some horrible economic issues.
I know we all want to make money and take advantage of these bear markets but please say a prayer for the less fortunate,
not everyone has xxxx of money waiting to be deployed at a 50-60% decline, there is single mom tonight laid off who is just concerned about feeding her child for the next few days.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by BionicBillWalsh » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:23 pm

geo5000 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:20 pm
I realize this is a financial/investment forum, I’m just stunned at the lack sympathy some of these people have for their fellow Americans who are about to face some horrible economic issues.
I know we all want to make money and take advantage of these bear markets but please say a prayer for the less fortunate,
not everyone has xxxx of money waiting to be deployed at a 50-60% decline, there is single mom tonight laid off who is just concerned about feeding her child for the next few days.
now that's a weird non sequitur
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by dmcmahon » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:24 pm

Pikel wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:18 pm
-20% tomorrow. Let's get this over with.
I don't think that will be enough. I'm now thinking we could see the 2009 bottom of 666 again. To Fred Flintstone I'm past the point of worrying about money, I'm now worried about basic consumables and food, which have been disappearing from store shelves. Even if you have money to buy them, they're hard to find.
Last edited by dmcmahon on Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Hyperchicken » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:25 pm

geo5000 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:20 pm
there is single mom tonight laid off who is just concerned about feeding her child for the next few days.
And what do you expect forum members to do about that?

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by dmcmahon » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:32 pm

geo5000 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:20 pm
I realize this is a financial/investment forum, I’m just stunned at the lack sympathy some of these people have for their fellow Americans who are about to face some horrible economic issues.
I know we all want to make money and take advantage of these bear markets but please say a prayer for the less fortunate,
not everyone has xxxx of money waiting to be deployed at a 50-60% decline, there is single mom tonight laid off who is just concerned about feeding her child for the next few days.
You're right of course. Most of us can't do anything about that person. We've got problems of our own just keeping our own families afloat. I read this forum because I'm stuck in my house for the duration of the California lockdown. Meantime my priority is just finding (not affording) basic goods that are in short supply. My family is no longer 5 hours away, they are now 2500 very long miles away.
I don't think the powers that be thought this whole shutdown thing through very carefully to understand how much harm was going to be inflicted. Decisions are being driven completely by perceived medical priorities with little consideration for economics, as if the economic effects are just a secondary priority. That probably seemed wise when things were economically "normal" but if things get economically ugly enough those secondary problems could suddenly be even bigger than the medical ones, and harder to fix. JMHO.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by dmcmahon » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:37 pm

nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:17 pm
dmcmahon wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:12 pm
tim1999 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Ugh. [Deleted - mod olcomputerguy] The good news is that in about 2 more weeks of the current downward trajectory we have been on, the market will be zero and we will not have to worry about it anymore. :annoyed
I'm starting to think that's where it's headed. Market closes for the day after two time outs right? Play that forward day after day and eventually they'll have to just shut it down for the duration, as no one knows the value of anything.
Yes. Third stop halts trading for the day. That hasn't happened once in this downturn yet. Nor has a Level 2 stop for that matter.
I'll bet it happens tomorrow. I bet a 24-roll pack of Kirkland toilet paper.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by LFKB » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:45 pm

Hyperchicken wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:08 pm
veggivet wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:07 pm
Perhaps this down move is the market pricing in the jobs report due out Thursday, which will likely be a 3 comma number starting with a 2, setting a new record.
2,000,000,000?? :shock:
That would be roughly 600% unemployment. I didn’t check the history books, but I have to think that would be a new record.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by MotoTrojan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:46 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:49 pm
Kenkat wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 pm
It’s gonna be Dow 5,000. Bill Gross will be vindicated!
Somewhere, Dan Mahowny is smiling. Not here on Bogleheads, of course, but somewhere.
He is still down massively on his TSLA shorts at these current levels though :twisted:.

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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by manuvns » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:48 pm

stocks will be cheap at any thing below 2000 s&p . markets are irrational .

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LFKB
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by LFKB » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:48 pm

dmcmahon wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:37 pm
nps wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:17 pm
dmcmahon wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:12 pm
tim1999 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Ugh. [Deleted - mod olcomputerguy] The good news is that in about 2 more weeks of the current downward trajectory we have been on, the market will be zero and we will not have to worry about it anymore. :annoyed
I'm starting to think that's where it's headed. Market closes for the day after two time outs right? Play that forward day after day and eventually they'll have to just shut it down for the duration, as no one knows the value of anything.
Yes. Third stop halts trading for the day. That hasn't happened once in this downturn yet. Nor has a Level 2 stop for that matter.
I'll bet it happens tomorrow. I bet a 24-roll pack of Kirkland toilet paper.
You’re betting the market falls 20% tomorrow? I’ll happily take that bet

fatFIRE
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by fatFIRE » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:56 pm

Pikel wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:18 pm
-20% tomorrow. Let's get this over with.
Yup, that will trigger my rebalance bands. Drop this and let's get this over with!!!

mortal
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by mortal » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:58 pm

I went to 50 / 50 stocks / bonds in 2017, said I'd move back to my standard AA of 65 / 35 when stocks were down 35% from peak during a recession. Looks like tomorrow is the day! I'll keep 'overbalancing' until I'm 100% stocks if we're down 50%. A lot of folks said I was overly conservative, and I admit I've had my doubts over the years, but I'm happy to be sitting on a stockpile of dry powder at the moment. I fully expect to be cut by the falling knife, but hopefully I can use this opportunity to TLH and simplify my portfolio.

CobraKai
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by CobraKai » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:58 pm

geo5000 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:20 pm
there is single mom tonight laid off who is just concerned about feeding her child for the next few days.
Two parent families don't matter?
Last edited by CobraKai on Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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F150HD
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by F150HD » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:59 pm

dmcmahon wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:24 pm
Pikel wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:18 pm
-20% tomorrow. Let's get this over with.
I don't think that will be enough. I'm now thinking we could see the 2009 bottom of 666 again. To Fred Flintstone I'm past the point of worrying about money, I'm now worried about basic consumables and food, which have been disappearing from store shelves. Even if you have money to buy them, they're hard to find.
Same page. I didn't need bar-soap or toothpaste the other day but the barren shelves nearby of everything else had me wondering if that might start disappearing too.....so I bought more.

It was a little unsettling.

-

Dunno if anyone has ever seen The Book of Eli (with Denzel Washington)....the state of current stores (food aside) is starting to feel that way a bit.

Scooter57
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by Scooter57 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:10 pm

FWIW, some investors might be relieved that the decision to spend several trillion dollars was not made in only 36 hours based on some hasty back of the envelope calculations without consultations with experts who might be able to offer thoughtful input. The 2008 response took time and drew on the best financial expertise in the country.

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willthrill81
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by willthrill81 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:12 pm

Enzo IX wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:28 pm
Well at least 5% loss of a 70% remaining portfolio is getting to be less of a dollar amount.
Ah, an optimist! :D
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

drk
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Re: S&P500 and Dow Futures Halted After Reaching 5% Down Limit for Monday Open

Post by drk » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:14 pm

Scooter57 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:10 pm
FWIW, some investors might be relieved that the decision to spend several trillion dollars was not made in only 36 hours based on some hasty back of the envelope calculations without consultations with experts who might be able to offer thoughtful input. The 2008 response took time and drew on the best financial expertise in the country.
FWIW, the experts have been calling for something huge since *checks date* March 13.

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