[Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

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TagmoreClock
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by TagmoreClock »

KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:54 pm
jibantik wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:20 pm
KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:54 pm jibantik,

Please redo your post with the log scale. I do not know how to do that. That is more interesting. It shows exponential growth. It shows about 10 times increases in about every 8 days.

KlangFool
There is a toggle on the website at the URL I pasted, but here it is:

Image
Folks,

3/2 = 100 cases
3/11 ~ 1,000 cases
3/19 ~ 10,000 cases

Increases about 10 times by every 8 or 9 days. Let's assume that it is 10 times every 9 days. We will reach 100K on 3/28, 1 million by 4/6/2020, 10 million by 4/15/2020.

About 20% of the cases need hospitalization.

So, it is 20K on 3/28, 200K by 4/6/2020, 2 million by 4/15/2020

For some local/hot areas, we would run out of hospital beds way before 4/15/2020.

KlangFool
What is the general understanding of asymptotic cases + natural immunity multiplier. Assuming it 10. Since there are 10,000 cases, are there 100,000 asymptotic+natural immune cases who have exposed to virus. By 3/28 then numbers should be 1,000,000. By 4/6 number should 100,000,000. Will the spread not stop then? Is this what happened in wuhan?
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quantAndHold
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by quantAndHold »

dukeblue219 wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:02 pm California is now on state-wide shelter-in-place per CNN.
Yep. Governor is speaking now.

And my next door neighbor has it. She says it’s nasty. Don’t get it.
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F150HD
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by F150HD »

:shock:

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VictoriaF
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by VictoriaF »

JMacDonald wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:46 pm Here is a fascinating New Yorker article written in 1997 about the Spanish Flu:
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1997 ... -dead-zone
The Wuhan area of China is mentioned in the article.
From the article:
"It had already been hypothesized, for example, that the Spanish flu originated—at least, in part—with a bird, probably a wild duck. Waterfowl are what virologists call the “reservoir” for influenza."

Are Black Swans considered waterfowl?

Victoria
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nigel_ht
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

wshang wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:12 pm
The devil is always in the details of the study. Count 'em, six not included in the treatment side analysis including three who went into the ICU and one who died. 26-6=20 left for the treatment side versus 16 control patients.

...

I want to be as optimistic as anyone else, but we need to analyze data for ourselves.
There is sufficient consensus of potential efficacy that hydroxychloroquine/chloroquine made the interim clinical guidance list in Belgium, Italy, Switzerland and the Netherlands.

https://epidemio.wiv-isp.be/ID/Document ... nt_ENG.pdf

Gautret's findings are preliminary but indicates that the in vitro performance of hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19 translates to some level of in vivo performance in the real world.

n=20 is small (terribly small for medical studies) but sometimes you go with what you got. For human subject studies minimum sample size is 15...or whatever your IRB will let you get away with when you claim non-parametic inferential statistical analysis techniques are applicable.
EasilyConfused
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by EasilyConfused »

KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:30 pm
EasilyConfused wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:22 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:17 pm Yes, nobody is arguing disruption won't be painful. But it will not collapse the economy, either. Even with the near-total lockdown, the hours worked by workers mentions are down by only around 35%. That's bad, but this will only last a few months and stimulus will get them through it. Longer-term, after suppression is relaxed, the hours worked will likely only drop in the 10-15% range. Not great, but hardly catastrophic or unmanageable. The proportion of the non-productive section of society just is not going to be gigantic.
Most states aren't anywhere near a total lockdown yet. Most restaurants are still trying to figure out ways to stay open. My brother went out for a haircut yesterday. It's about to get a whole lot worse for hourly workers.
The numbers were for areas in total lockdown. It is unlikely to get substantially worse in those areas.
Which areas? What locations have shut down bars, restaurants and, retail, told all who could work from home to do so, and practiced social distancing for a long enough period of time and are also keeping enough track of employers to have compiled these sorts of statistics with anything close to accuracy? Do you have a link?
jibantik
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by jibantik »

Cases increased a staggering 48% today. Hold onto your butts people.

Image

EDIT: 9,259 -> 13,789 cases
Last edited by jibantik on Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
KlangFool
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by KlangFool »

TagmoreClock wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:16 pm
KlangFool wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:54 pm
jibantik wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:20 pm
KlangFool wrote: Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:54 pm jibantik,

Please redo your post with the log scale. I do not know how to do that. That is more interesting. It shows exponential growth. It shows about 10 times increases in about every 8 days.

KlangFool
There is a toggle on the website at the URL I pasted, but here it is:

Image
Folks,

3/2 = 100 cases
3/11 ~ 1,000 cases
3/19 ~ 10,000 cases

Increases about 10 times by every 8 or 9 days. Let's assume that it is 10 times every 9 days. We will reach 100K on 3/28, 1 million by 4/6/2020, 10 million by 4/15/2020.

About 20% of the cases need hospitalization.

So, it is 20K on 3/28, 200K by 4/6/2020, 2 million by 4/15/2020

For some local/hot areas, we would run out of hospital beds way before 4/15/2020.

KlangFool
What is the general understanding of asymptotic cases + natural immunity multiplier. Assuming it 10. Since there are 10,000 cases, are there 100,000 asymptotic+natural immune cases who have exposed to virus. By 3/28 then numbers should be 1,000,000. By 4/6 number should 100,000,000. Will the spread not stop then? Is this what happened in wuhan?
TagmoreClock,

1) The full name for this virus is Novel Coronavirus, Novel means that it had never been seen by the human beings and we do not have natural immunity.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

2) If you are interested in the model to predict true cases versus confirmed cases, you can check out the above URL.

KlangFool
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craimund
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Updated March 20, 2020 3:33 AM Eastern Time. U.S. has 4.36 cases per 100,000 people.

Image

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
craimund
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Interesting analysis of the limitations of mass COVID-19 Testing

Test-kit availability aside, there are crucial issues to consider. For example, so long as the background level of infection is low, there are real downsides to mass testing, and good reasons to limit testing to individuals who show symptoms or have been in contact with people who have shown symptoms. The problem is that when the overall level of infection is low, the overwhelming majority of your positive test results from mass testing will be false positives. This gives the public a false sense of what the actual mortality level is, a false sense of security in their own immunity status, and can contribute to future outbreaks. In fact, the mass testing in South Korea could be skewing their data.

Let’s assume we tested everyone with the 90% accurate test. ... Most of the people who have the virus get a positive reading. What about the people who don’t have the illness? Most of them get a negative reading. The problem is that, since there are far more people that don’t have the virus than do have it, the 10% error rate for that group overwhelms the 90% accuracy rate for the group that does have it. You end up with a scenario where 93% of the people who test positive for the disease do not, in fact, have it.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 42693.html
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
craimund
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Another interesting analysis of COVID-19 testing. We apparently have no idea how accurate the different tests being used in different countries are. Testing should be limited to at risk populations. Also explanation of initial handling of testing by CDC. The CDC’s methodological and quality concerns are being mistaken for a “botching,” rather than a quality concern and a very basic epidemiological principle.

The accuracy of testing for COVID-19 needs to be discussed, as all the numbers we are following (and the massive reaction to it) hinge on the tests’ accuracy. As of now, global testing for COVID is based on a tribal group of genetic tests, that differ by country, region, and laboratory. The CDC test, for example, tests a different set of genes, than say the German WHO test. These tests were rapidly developed under a lot of pressure, and potentially have error (as we already saw with the CDC test).

We know very little about the false positive and false negative rates of these varied tests. Similar PCR (gene) tests for common respiratory viruses have a 1-2% false positive/false negative rate (https://www.biomerieux-diagnostics.com/ ... tory-panel). For COVID, since the numbers being reported (e.g. on Worldometer) are positives, it is very possible that a large fraction of this number could represent false positives, in relatively low prevalence situations. It depends on adequate pre-test screening and limiting the test to high-risk populations (where have we heard this before?!). As we test more, we will find more positives — but only a fraction can be expected to be true, and the true positive rate will decrease as testing expands. As Dr. Birx (White House COVID Coordinator) said on Tuesday, “Quality testing,” she said, is “paramount.” “It doesn’t help to put out a test where 50 percent are false positives.” This is a very crucial point — with significant political implications. The CDC’s methodological and quality concerns are being mistaken for a “botching,” rather than a quality concern and a very basic epidemiological principle.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/ ... esting.php
Last edited by craimund on Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Unladen_Swallow
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more.
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Mr. Rumples
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Mr. Rumples »

A relative is staying with me while he goes through a divorce. He knows if I get ill, he will be isolated with me and vice-versa. I told him that since he is going every day to his house and seeing his kids (3) that if they or his to be ex-wife gets ill, he will have a difficult choice...either not see them or go back and live there. Is that unreasonable?
Last edited by Mr. Rumples on Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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M.Lee
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by M.Lee »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:15 am The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more.
I feel the same about the CDC.
FI4LIFE
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by FI4LIFE »

craimund wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:00 am
fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:30 am
craimund wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:15 am
fortyofforty wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:05 am From John Ioannidis, at Stanford, in STAT:
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
It would truly be a shame if we destroyed the economy unnecessarily.
Interesting article. I don’t think any countries are conducting random sampling. Even South Korea. I believe they are only testing contacts of confirmed cases.
That has been my point this whole time. We do not know, definitively, with what we're dealing. We don't know how many have been exposed to it. We don't know the mortality rate of it. We don't know so many things. Yet, we're acting like it's something out of Dawn of the Dead.
The economic damage at some point becomes worse than the potentially avoidable consequences of the disease. All of these lock-downs and draconian measures are not going to prevent COVID-19 infection and death. Fauci said these efforts will blunt the curve. There is still a curve. We may be able to mitigate some of the "extra deaths" caused by overwhelming the healthcare system. However, how much damage should we do to the economy to avoid some or all of these deaths? We accept tens of thousands of flu related deaths every year and draconian measures are certainly available to prevent some of those deaths. I know this is not the flu but the point is we accept a certain number of deaths from infectious disease every year to maintain our lifestyle. I haven't heard any reasoned discussion of this issue.

Not sure if even extensive random sampling would help with figuring out what we would need to know this early in the process.
The heart of the issue is the limits of the healthcare system. What other reasonable measure can be taken to deal with this problem in such a short time frame? I don't think one exists. The draconian measures are certainly damaging the economy, but the fear is the major driver right now.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by tadamsmar »

A 25% per day increase in supplies would sound good, but that would just keep up with the case rate.

If a location has twice the capability they need today, then they will be maxed out 4 days later if there is no increase in capability.
craimund
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

M.Lee wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:53 am
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:15 am The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more.
I feel the same about the CDC.
The CDC had valid reasons for developing and certifying their own test. There is a reason that the CDC and FDA have regulations regarding testing. Inaccurate testing can cause more problems than it solves. That being said, they should have allowed concurrent test development by private industry much sooner. The failings at the CDC regarding testing appear to have been due to not wanting to cede control of the process soon enough. There is no evidence of the CDC intentionally misleading the public. WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. They also opposed travel bans which contradicts experts like Dr. Fauci.
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by fru-gal »

M.Lee wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:53 am
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:15 am The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more.
I feel the same about the CDC.
The only person I trust about this is Dr. Fauci. He is not a spring chicken; please stay alive, Dr. Fauci.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Prahasaurus »

This has probably been posted before, but I think this is an excellent (and updated) overview of where we are, and what we need to do next:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56

It's obviously hard to say how financial markets will continue to react, and what has, and has not, been priced into the market at this point. Here is a rather negative take on what I think will happen over the next 4-5 weeks or so, little of which I believe is priced into US equity markets:

1. The USA has bungled its response to this virus, something you just don't hear much on TV. In fact, our leaders are constantly congratulating themselves on what a great job they have done so far. The marketing and PR management of this virus is one thing, but the reality won't be hidden. But the results of that won't been seen for another week or so, when hospitals start to get overwhelmed. Seeing this happen live on TV, seeing health care workers begging for help, hundreds if not thousands of Americans dying each day.... basically repeating what we are seeing now in northern Italy but on a larger scale, will cause a fundamental shift in Americans' minds. That's when the panic really starts.

I think the market has priced in a global recession. But it still assumes this virus is under control, and our experience will mimic Singapore's or South Korea's, or even China's, in the number of total deaths. This is a major, major miscalculation. We expect to see the same results as China and South Korea, without implementing the incredibly extreme testing, tracking, and isolating regime those countries introduced. We still are not there!

I can't say when hospitals begin to break down. Living in Europe, I do recall that Italy, as well, thought they had it under control, with some seemingly draconian measures. Until one morning, all hell broke loose at hospitals in the north of the country. This is likely going to happen in New York City, Seattle, LA, and a few other cities in the first wave. Not sure of the timing, as the testing has been so bad in the USA, but my guess is late next week it really hits.

2 - While this is going on, you are going to see other European countries struggle, probably beginning around the same time. Look for France, Spain, and Germany to have issues. They have taken strong steps now, but likely too late. The next week or two will tell. In any case, I don't think another major European country repeating what we see in Italy has been priced in to markets. I think most Americans believe the situation Europe is mainly about Italy, and things are starting to calm down there a bit. This is not the case, Europe has many more issues than just Italy!

3 - Look for the UK to experience one of the worst outbreaks of any major economic power, in my opinion worse than Italy. They have done next to nothing, only recently starting to take some measures, most of which are "recommendations," which few seem to be following. Testing there has also been sporadic, so hard to say how bad it is there right now. It's mind blowing how little they have done compared to the rest of Europe so far. I see little written about this in the US press, but it's going to be awful there soon.

4 - The real powder keg gets lit when this hits a relatively unstable, major power that is fairly unprepared to cope with it, by their hospitals, but also politically. Now I'm thinking Brazil, India, Russia, Pakistan, perhaps Nigeria. I think this virus will cause a political revolution in at least one of those countries, likely Brazil. But the government won't go down without a fight. But I also think there is a huge risk in Russia that the government will take extreme measures against protestors, once it's revealed how little prepared they are for this. Of course the main tragedy will be the millions who fall sick and die. But the resulting political fallout will be incredibly dangerous and unpredictable. I don't think any of this is priced into US markets, simply because it's still likely viewed as the worst case scenario.

5 - Iran is in terrible shape. Sanctions are making it so much worse. Iran shares a border with Iraq, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Iraq being the next country in the region to go down. With so many US forces based in that country, the risk of escalation is huge. Especially if the US is blamed for this, which will likely be the case. Remember, US led sanctions are contributing to Iran's plight, so it will be very easy to convince people (maybe correctly?) that those sanctions were a major factor in allowing the virus to spread to Iraq from Iran.

I could go on.... Yes, this may all seem hugely speculative, and much of it is. But I think the rise in cases in many more countries are inevitable. And I am hugely skeptical what many countries have done to date - including the USA - will be good enough to contain this virus. At least in many parts of the country, where it has just spread too far and too wide to be contained.
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M.Lee
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by M.Lee »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am
M.Lee wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:53 am
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:15 am The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more.
I feel the same about the CDC.
The CDC had valid reasons for developing and certifying their own test. There is a reason that the CDC and FDA have regulations regarding testing. Inaccurate testing can cause more problems than it solves. That being said, they should have allowed concurrent test development by private industry much sooner. The failings at the CDC regarding testing appear to have been due to not wanting to cede control of the process soon enough. There is no evidence of the CDC intentionally misleading the public. WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. They also opposed travel bans which contradicts experts like Dr. Fauci.
My comment has not to do with testing. I don't think the CDC has been clear about how you catch it. Just like the WHO they originally did not tell us about how prevalent asymptomatic transmission can be. They (all of them including Fauchi) have yet to be specific about how asymptomatic people spread this. All I keep hearing about is sneezing and coughing and not touching surfaces and washing your hands. Well, what if the asymptomatic person doesn't sneeze or cough?? Then the virus must just get expelled in the air when that person breathes. Right? This is what I want to know. They talk about food delivery services and not greeting them at the door. Are they assuming that person is going to sneeze or cough during a couple minutes they hand you the food? I don't think there is enough info on transmission and that is because they don't know. They should just say so.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

M.Lee wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:52 am
craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am
M.Lee wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:53 am
Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:15 am The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more.
I feel the same about the CDC.
The CDC had valid reasons for developing and certifying their own test. There is a reason that the CDC and FDA have regulations regarding testing. Inaccurate testing can cause more problems than it solves. That being said, they should have allowed concurrent test development by private industry much sooner. The failings at the CDC regarding testing appear to have been due to not wanting to cede control of the process soon enough. There is no evidence of the CDC intentionally misleading the public. WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission. They also opposed travel bans which contradicts experts like Dr. Fauci.
My comment has not to do with testing. I don't think the CDC has been clear about how you catch it. Just like the WHO they originally did not tell us about how prevalent asymptomatic transmission can be. They (all of them including Fauchi) have yet to be specific about how asymptomatic people spread this. All I keep hearing about is sneezing and coughing and not touching surfaces and washing your hands. Well, what if the asymptomatic person doesn't sneeze or cough?? Then the virus must just get expelled in the air when that person breathes. Right? This is what I want to know. They talk about food delivery services and not greeting them at the door. Are they assuming that person is going to sneeze or cough during a couple minutes they hand you the food? I don't think there is enough info on transmission and that is because they don't know. They should just say so.
I don't think the CDC or anyone else for that matter fully understands the prevalence of asymptomatic transmission. A symptomatic person is clearly more likely to spread the infection due to coughing, etc. which the CDC addresses in the link below. It is understood that a symptomatic person can cough into their hand, touch a surface and the disease can be spread through contact with that surface. It appears that direct contact with aerosol or indirect contact via infected surfaces are the predominant transmission mechanisms.

Can someone spread the virus without being sick?
People are thought to be most contagious when they are most symptomatic (the sickest).
Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.


The issue may have more to do with media coverage and not CDC messaging. I do not think the media as a whole are doing a good job of informing the public.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ssion.html
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by NearlyRetired »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 am 40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
we are seeing something similar here in the UK, with London being a hot spot
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Infections per 100,000 updated to include New York. New York now has a higher rate of infection than France and Germany.

U.S. overall 4.36/100.000
New York State 29.23/100,000
Washington State (not shown in graph) 18.26/100,000

Image

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
craimund
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

NearlyRetired wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:15 am
craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 am 40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
we are seeing something similar here in the UK, with London being a hot spot
No doubt. London and NY being the hub of international travel in the UK and US.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Prahasaurus wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:46 am
3 - Look for the UK to experience one of the worst outbreaks of any major economic power, in my opinion worse than Italy. They have done next to nothing, only recently starting to take some measures, most of which are "recommendations," which few seem to be following. Testing there has also been sporadic, so hard to say how bad it is there right now. It's mind blowing how little they have done compared to the rest of Europe so far. I see little written about this in the US press, but it's going to be awful there soon.
Spread of infection doesn't appear to be as far advanced in UK as in the other Western European countries (e.g., Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland). Has anyone looked into why this is? Presumably proximity to Italy is a factor but maybe also UK not being part of Schengen Area?
Last edited by craimund on Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by NearlyRetired »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:29 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:46 am
3 - Look for the UK to experience one of the worst outbreaks of any major economic power, in my opinion worse than Italy. They have done next to nothing, only recently starting to take some measures, most of which are "recommendations," which few seem to be following. Testing there has also been sporadic, so hard to say how bad it is there right now. It's mind blowing how little they have done compared to the rest of Europe so far. I see little written about this in the US press, but it's going to be awful there soon.
Spread of infection doesn't appear to be as far advanced in UK as in the other Western European countries (e.g., Italy, Span, France, Germany, Switzerland). Has anyone looked into why this is? Presumably proximity to Italy is a factor but maybe also UK not being part of Schengen Area?
I am not sure whether that is the case or not. We are a few weeks behind Italy, and London, which is a hot spot, is a couple of weeks ahead of the rest of the country. If it is possible the only way to compare (I think) would be to see on any given "days from start" how many cases or deaths each country had - that might provide some idea
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Prahasaurus »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:29 am
Prahasaurus wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 6:46 am
3 - Look for the UK to experience one of the worst outbreaks of any major economic power, in my opinion worse than Italy. They have done next to nothing, only recently starting to take some measures, most of which are "recommendations," which few seem to be following. Testing there has also been sporadic, so hard to say how bad it is there right now. It's mind blowing how little they have done compared to the rest of Europe so far. I see little written about this in the US press, but it's going to be awful there soon.
Spread of infection doesn't appear to be as far advanced in UK as in the other Western European countries (e.g., Italy, Span, France, Germany, Switzerland). Has anyone looked into why this is? Presumably proximity to Italy is a factor but maybe also UK not being part of Schengen Area?
Isn't this because they are testing so few people? It also likely started later there. But I believe it's about to explode. I really hope I'm wrong.

I live on a Mediterranean island, and a lot of the cases here are British tourists. They've stopped all tourism now, by the way.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Thinking ahead, it appears that the world is in need of a global pandemic monitoring and response team. All member governments would have to be open and allow access in order to be members. International travel and trade between members would be largely as it is now. Travel and trade between members and non-members would be severely restricted or prohibited. The cost could be funded with taxes on international travel (which would have the salutary effect of reducing international travel and therefore the rapidity of infectious disease transmission) and tariffs on the international movement of goods.

I'm beginning to think that national borders function as water tight compartments on a ship - if one springs a leak you can close it off from neighboring compartments.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by halfnine »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:26 am
NearlyRetired wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:15 am
craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 am 40% of all COVID-19 infections in the US are now in New York State.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
we are seeing something similar here in the UK, with London being a hot spot
No doubt. London and NY being the hub of international travel in the UK and US.
Probably more so because of population density and overcrowded public transport.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by theplayer11 »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:15 am The WHO has retracted and been false so many times in this mess, I feel bad that I ignored my instinct to doubt them more.
The WHO is a joke, they believed China every step of the way.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by vested1 »

Here are two recent examples which may become more relevant as to the efficacy of mass testing. The links I am providing are from sites that would appear to be more unbiased in order to avoid responses about not trusting a certain source. However, these stories have been widely covered by other media.

https://www.livescience.com/small-itali ... sting.html

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/15/fi ... ronavirus/

The first link describes the decision to test all residents of a small town of about 3,300 in Italy, Vo Euganeo, that had an extreme number of cases early on. The second is from Iceland, with preliminary results statistically mirroring those from Vo.

This is all preliminary of course and no definite conclusions should be determined immediately, but the indications are that 50% of those testing positive had no symptoms. In the case of the Italian town, all those testing positive were isolated, and there have been no new cases since isolation occured.

This is a strong argument for testing of the general population and isolating those who test positive, and how doing so can halt the spread of the virus in its tracks.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by tadamsmar »

TagmoreClock wrote: Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:16 pm What is the general understanding of asymptotic cases + natural immunity multiplier. Assuming it 10. Since there are 10,000 cases, are there 100,000 asymptotic+natural immune cases who have exposed to virus. By 3/28 then numbers should be 1,000,000. By 4/6 number should 100,000,000. Will the spread not stop then? Is this what happened in wuhan?
The whole China question is interesting. Why has the epidemic stopped in China? I don't think there were enough cases to cause herd immunity.

Perhaps it is due to testing, actual and suspect case isolation, and case tracing plus the overall shutdown/social distancing. That could at least lead to a low rate of new infections.

And maybe it's partly misinformation.

Edit: Here's an article on opinions about how China did it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-outbreak
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by corner559 »

Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by technovelist »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:52 am Thinking ahead, it appears that the world is in need of a global pandemic monitoring and response team. All member governments would have to be open and allow access in order to be members. International travel and trade between members would be largely as it is now. Travel and trade between members and non-members would be severely restricted or prohibited. The cost could be funded with taxes on international travel (which would have the salutary effect of reducing international travel and therefore the rapidity of infectious disease transmission) and tariffs on the international movement of goods.

I'm beginning to think that national borders function as water tight compartments on a ship - if one springs a leak you can close it off from neighboring compartments.
I think there are two possible courses of action after this outbreak is over to prevent similar tragedies in the future, at least in the US:

1. A reserve force of health care workers and hospitals, like the National Guard but for health care.
2. The end of intercontinental passenger air traffic and strict border enforcement at the land/sea borders.

I'd prefer the first but the second would work too.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by LadyGeek »

Please see this forum announcement: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19

If there are any questions, please PM a moderator or myself. Don't post in the thread, thanks.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GCD »

corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

Unintended consequences of COVID-19 response discussed on Freakonomics website.

All this has resulted in the biggest disruption of daily life that many of us have ever known, and it will last for weeks, perhaps months. Will it successfully contain the spread of COVID-19? We’ll find out; hopefully it will at least be minimized. If we listen to the public-health people, the virologists and the epidemiologists — and we should, because they’ve been dreading and studying this kind of pandemic for years — they say the situation will get substantially worse in the U.S. before it gets better.

And what other effects, and aftereffects, will this social distancing produce? There will be many consequences, and certainly some unintended ones. Would anyone be surprised, for instance, to see a baby boom starting around 9 months from now? Entire industries and segments of our society are being upended. The economic impact will be massive. Obviously, some people stand to be hurt, badly. Others are more protected. And some may well benefit, including those who can entertain and deliver and sell to the millions of people who suddenly have few places to go and not much to do. But the overall economic impact will be hugely negative, and will likely require a massive infusion of government aid — everything from industry bailouts to rent and tax relief to emergency aid for laid-off workers. The stock markets fell 30 percent — with one, harrowing, single-day drop of 10 percent and another of 12 percent.Volatility is higher than it’s been since the financial crisis of 2008.

https://freakonomics.com/podcast/covid-19-effects/
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack »

GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:24 am
corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
Wow, he gave an example that only 1% of the US will be infected. Hopefully that's the case (or lower) but even myself (far from an expert or doctor) looking at the infectious rate charts thinks it's going to way over 3.3 million.

1% is also drastically lower than what I'm hearing (30-50% of US). Source is the Sam Harris pod cast I posted upthread.

One thing we can all agree on is that we need more data. I wouldn't say "pick an expert", but listen to the experts.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by GCD »

ThankYouJack wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:47 am Do you agree with that?
I have no idea and where I do have an opinion it is relatively unfounded.

This guy is a classic example of what I posted way back. He has great credentials. His intellectual opposition has great credentials. To go from layman to a level of understanding sufficient to pick who is right is wayyyy more years of study than I am prepared to put in.

So I pick the guy who helps me out with my confirmation bias. :happy
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by nigel_ht »

GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:24 am
corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
The main issue with this article is that while he uses Diamond Princess to calculate the CFR he ignores it to determine his 1% infection...no doubt because the 25% rate aboard the Diamond Princess is inflated due to close proximity but also because it completely deflates his case because folks would notice an additional 82.5M cases (25% of 330M), 16.5M serious cases (20% of cases) and 247.5K deaths (0.3% CFR) as more than just a "bad flu season".
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Desert »

GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:24 am
corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
I was just reading that article as well. He does a great job of explaining the uncertainty in the fatality rates.

If you read that article, it's also worth taking a look at this response to it:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we- ... -covid-19/
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by JonnyB »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission.
No they didn't.

It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21 WHO officially announced that human to human transmission was possible.
ThankYouJack
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ThankYouJack »

Here's some data on severe outcomes in the US - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by craimund »

JonnyB wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:20 am
craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission.
No they didn't.

It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21 WHO officially announced that human to human transmission was possible.
WHO tweeted this on Jan. 14.

Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the organization had said.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/who-haunt ... ronavirus/
"When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose"-Bob Dylan 1965. "When you think that you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more"-Dylan 1997
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

nigel_ht wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:11 am
GCD wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:24 am
corner559 wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:21 am
Mactheriverrat wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:33 pm Is this Coronavirus being over blown by the media.

See news about the 2019 - 2020 season has done just in the US.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm
Still thinking it's overblown now?
Yup.

Pick your expert I guess. I pick John P.A. Ioannidis, professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

He says this is all a huge overreaction and can potentially cause more deaths. If flattening the curve isn't sufficient to prevent the medical system from being overcapacity, but it does stretch the peak out longer, you could have more deaths of people who need the health care system for non-CV reasons.

Lots of other problems with this fiasco of a response. And he does use the word fiasco.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-f ... able-data/

This falls into "I heard a guy on the internet once..." but I'll say it anyway: I don't know many doctors, but the half dozen or so I do know all agree with Ioannidis but don't post on social media or speak out in the press because they don't need their head bitten off or want to get threatened.
The main issue with this article is that while he uses Diamond Princess to calculate the CFR he ignores it to determine his 1% infection...no doubt because the 25% rate aboard the Diamond Princess is inflated due to close proximity but also because it completely deflates his case because folks would notice an additional 82.5M cases (25% of 330M), 16.5M serious cases (20% of cases) and 247.5K deaths (0.3% CFR) as more than just a "bad flu season".
Also, death rates appear to significantly increase when medical care is not available for those who require it. And the healthcare systems appear to be overwhelmed when as little as 1% of the population in any given area is infected. (That 1% could be off by quite a bit since the data is so unreliable. But it's not a big number in any case before the healthcare systems get overwhelmed.) I assume the Diamond Princess victims that required it all had access to good healthcare. Not so much in Lombardy right now. And soon to be NYC.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Mr. Rumples »

Last week the Governor announced that the University of Virginia/ UVA Health and the Medical College of Virginia (MCV) in Richmond would develop their own Coronavirus tests. Each has announced they have developed and are deploying the tests. MCV is producing 20 tests a day; that will increase next week to 80.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by jibantik »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:31 am
JonnyB wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:20 am
craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission.
No they didn't.

It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21 WHO officially announced that human to human transmission was possible.
WHO tweeted this on Jan. 14.

Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the organization had said.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/who-haunt ... ronavirus/
craimund, you made a magnificent leap in logic from that tweet.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by JonnyB »

craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:31 am
JonnyB wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:20 am
craimund wrote: Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:33 am WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission.
No they didn't.

It was health officials in Wuhan that said they did not have evidence of human to human transmission. WHO all along acknowledged that human to human transmission could not be rule out. On January 21 WHO officially announced that human to human transmission was possible.
WHO tweeted this on Jan. 14.

Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the organization had said.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/who-haunt ... ronavirus/
You said "WHO informed the world in mid January that there was no human to human transmission."

WHO said "Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission."

Saying "no clear evidence" is not the same as saying "there was no human to human transmission."

WHO all along said that human transmission could not be ruled out, but they did not yet have the evidence to show that. That's the way that science works.

On January 21 WHO announced that there was evidence of human to human transmission.
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Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Post by Pikel »

We are watching an incredible erosion of personal freedom right now. I hope it saves more lives than it costs.
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