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Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
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- Richard1580
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Re: Dead cat bounce?
It seems to me that the wild gyrations in the market are indicative of a high FUD (Fear/Uncertainty/Doubt) factor. No one knows nothing and the market could go anywhere.
I took the opportunity today to do some rebalancing and some Roth conversions. That said, I would not be surprised to see the market return to its previous highs, drop another 10%, or continue to convulse.
If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.
I took the opportunity today to do some rebalancing and some Roth conversions. That said, I would not be surprised to see the market return to its previous highs, drop another 10%, or continue to convulse.
If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.
"The quest is the quest."
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Short squeeze.
Re: Dead cat bounce?
Cheshire cat?Richard1580 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:45 pm If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.
"Re-verify our range to target ... one ping only."
Re: Dead cat bounce?
Still unsatisfied: this definition includes a recovery in steps. Clearly, a DCB has to recover a chunk of the losses (but not all !) and then go back again. "go back" by how much ?
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Re: Dead cat bounce?
Back to/through the low it bounced off of?
"Re-verify our range to target ... one ping only."
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Yup, and not switching up your aa because you have a“hunch”.thelateinvestor43 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:54 pm Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
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Re: Dead cat bounce?
OK. Now, the problem is that it can go back to the previous minimum, but also it can go lower. Which means the previous minimum was not the minimum at all.One Ping wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:54 pmBack to/through the low it bounced off of?
The DCB has simply become a zig-zag pattern along the way to the real bottom, which we will be able to identify only ex-post.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
yes and go back and look at all the advice you got since day 1 but the good thing is it's never too late.thelateinvestor43 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:54 pm Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
Last edited by carminered2019 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
No, it's the dead cat shuffle.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Thanks Friend!vipertom1970 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:03 pmyes and go back and look at all the advice you got since day 1 but it's never too late.thelateinvestor43 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:54 pm Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
Re: Dead cat bounce?
Sure. Any reason you can't have more than one DCB during a downtrend?Thesaints wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:00 pmOK. Now, the problem is that it can go back to the previous minimum, but also it can go lower. Which means the previous minimum was not the minimum at all.One Ping wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:54 pmBack to/through the low it bounced off of?
The DCB has simply become a zig-zag pattern along the way to the real bottom, which we will be able to identify only ex-post.
"Re-verify our range to target ... one ping only."
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
I merged Johnnyone's thread into the on-going discussion.
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Re: Dead cat bounce?
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett
Re: Dead cat bounce?
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Re: Dead cat bounce?
Oh, heavens no. You can have as many as it takes.One Ping wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:07 pmSure. Any reason you can't have more than one DCB during a downtrend?Thesaints wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:00 pm
OK. Now, the problem is that it can go back to the previous minimum, but also it can go lower. Which means the previous minimum was not the minimum at all.
The DCB has simply become a zig-zag pattern along the way to the real bottom, which we will be able to identify only ex-post.
This time is the same
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Re: Dead cat bounce?
That is one Putty big Putty Tat......One Ping wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:49 pmCheshire cat?Richard1580 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:45 pm If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
The only rigging is the predictable nature of how investors cave to their own emotions and narratives they build in their heads.Gemini1962 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:37 am The S&P was up today having scared many new investors out of the market last week. So I'm expecting it to now rise to lure them back in for FOMO and then take another plunge later to really scare 'em again. I am totally convinced that the stock market is rigged by the big institutions.
Thoughts?
The traders employed by hedge funds and “institutions” just do their jobs and leverage this — you also need to remember it’s easier for them to stay unemotional since often it isn’t their personal money on the line. Just don’t play the game and “stay the course” .
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
you or me could never beat institutional investors with billion of dollars that could move the market up or down but you could easily beat them with buy and hold strategy and DCA.thelateinvestor43 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:04 pmThanks Friend!vipertom1970 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:03 pmyes and go back and look at all the advice you got since day 1 but it's never too late.thelateinvestor43 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:54 pm Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Everything evolves. |
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Oh, man. It reminds me of 2009-2010, not in the sense of necessarily being over, but all of the confused and contradictory speculation. Was it a "dead cat bounce?" Was it a "classic value trap?" Was it going to be "a V-shaped recovery or an L-shaped recovery?"
Reading about 1929-1933, it looks like a single plunge on large-scale charts, but the day-by-day accounts show that the ups and downs were continuously confusing, with constant ups punctuating the downs and making people think it was over. I'm not saying this is 1929, either, I'm just saying that things that seem so clear in hindsight are unbelievably confusing and contradictory while they are in progress.
Reading about 1929-1933, it looks like a single plunge on large-scale charts, but the day-by-day accounts show that the ups and downs were continuously confusing, with constant ups punctuating the downs and making people think it was over. I'm not saying this is 1929, either, I'm just saying that things that seem so clear in hindsight are unbelievably confusing and contradictory while they are in progress.
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Re: Dead cat bounce?
One being trained by circus monkeysOne Ping wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:49 pmCheshire cat?Richard1580 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:45 pm If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.
Jerry Garcia: If I knew the way...I would take you home.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
I expect stocks to go lower as earnings come in over the next two quarters.
Right now stocks could look like a good deal because earnings haven't been updated -- only cautionary warnings given, but few real numbers.
OECD is expecting a global GDP hit, ranging from 0.5% to 1-1.5%, depending on how things pan out.
I'd expect US stocks to go down 5-15% more by the end of June as earning and GDP numbers come in.
Disclaimer: this is just drinking game discussion, and has no impact on my investment strategy.
Right now stocks could look like a good deal because earnings haven't been updated -- only cautionary warnings given, but few real numbers.
OECD is expecting a global GDP hit, ranging from 0.5% to 1-1.5%, depending on how things pan out.
I'd expect US stocks to go down 5-15% more by the end of June as earning and GDP numbers come in.
Disclaimer: this is just drinking game discussion, and has no impact on my investment strategy.
Last edited by watchnerd on Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- FelixTheCat
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
No it isn’t. The correction is over. Get back in now if you sold.
Edit: Never mind, I’m probably wrong.
Edit: Never mind, I’m probably wrong.
Last edited by Nicolas on Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Can a dead cat catch a falling knife?
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Cat must have landed on a trampoline today.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
This is a conjecture. It's not a fact.Gemini1962 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:37 am The S&P was up today having scared many new investors out of the market last week.
Again, a conjecture. Little worse than the one above.So I'm expecting it to now rise to lure them back in for FOMO and then take another plunge later to really scare 'em again.
A total misinformation and/or conspiracy. If any big institutions have the power to rig the market, the market would have already broken. Nothing would keep the big institutions from maximizing their profits. As such, individual investors would probably have been wiped out a long time ago.I am totally convinced that the stock market is rigged by the big institutions.
Slow news today?Thoughts?
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
All that technical speak, mumbo jumbo, can't predict a thing.Mactheriverrat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:21 pm I see no dead cat bounce.
I do see a bounce off long term support.
I believe in the dead cat bounce. Much more believable.
Re: Dead cat bounce?
So, your point is that ANY arbitrary recovery amount from ANY size drop, no matter how small, could qualify as a DCB. Hmm ... I think I have to agree.Thesaints wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:11 pmThis:
https://imgur.com/j3mioCz
You begin to see dead kitties all around.
Maybe you can only have a DCB once you have a certain size drop, say 10%, from previous high. Any smaller drop and they don't really bounce.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
The word from Asia is the market went up today in "The Heat of the Moment."drg02b wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:37 pmThe word from Asia is that "Only Time Will Tell."Gemini1962 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:37 am The S&P was up today having scared many new investors out of the market last week. So I'm expecting it to now rise to lure them back in for FOMO and then take another plunge later to really scare 'em again. I am totally convinced that the stock market is rigged by the big institutions.
Thoughts?
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
It’s either a dead count bounce or the cat is going to scratch your eyes out when you poke it to see if it is dead. We just don’t know which.
- Mactheriverrat
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
DON'T HATE the messenger.surfstar wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:09 pmAll that technical speak, mumbo jumbo, can't predict a thing.Mactheriverrat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:21 pm I see no dead cat bounce.
I do see a bounce off long term support.
I believe in the dead cat bounce. Much more believable.
Everything evolves. |
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Saw this online:
“The nine biggest percentage gains in an index often occurred in a bear market.
In 1933, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 15.34% in one session — the biggest one day percentage gain ever. In 1931, the Dow jumped 14.87% in one day. The year 2001 saw the Nasdaq bolt 14.17% in a day. The infamous 1929 collapse delivered a 12.34% Dow pop in one day. In 2008, the Nasdaq surged 11.81% in a day. In 1932, the Dow rose 11.37% in a single day. The 2008 Dow raced 10.88% higher in a day. The Nasdaq in 2000 swaggered up 10.48% in one session. And in 1987, the Dow leaped 10.15% in a single bound.”
https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest ... ame=iossmf
“The nine biggest percentage gains in an index often occurred in a bear market.
In 1933, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 15.34% in one session — the biggest one day percentage gain ever. In 1931, the Dow jumped 14.87% in one day. The year 2001 saw the Nasdaq bolt 14.17% in a day. The infamous 1929 collapse delivered a 12.34% Dow pop in one day. In 2008, the Nasdaq surged 11.81% in a day. In 1932, the Dow rose 11.37% in a single day. The 2008 Dow raced 10.88% higher in a day. The Nasdaq in 2000 swaggered up 10.48% in one session. And in 1987, the Dow leaped 10.15% in a single bound.”
https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest ... ame=iossmf
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
+1DaftInvestor wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 3:37 pm As stated in the other thread with same term: I know the "DCB" terminology wasn't invented here but I just have to chime in and state I hate it. It conjures up a bad visual for me.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
5% is not a dead cat bounce
Last edited by 1130Super on Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
The 5% Dow move we saw today is indicative of weak overall market action, not strong. The other 10 5% Dow advances in the last 80 years all occurred in bear markets.
Not predicting anything, just saying 5% moves are normally based on hope that the worst is over. But only in hindsight has it proven to to not be over.
Being wrong compounds forever.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Surged. Jumped. Rose. Pop. Raced. Swaggered.Corsair wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:48 pm Saw this online:
“The nine biggest percentage gains in an index often occurred in a bear market.
In 1933, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 15.34% in one session — the biggest one day percentage gain ever. In 1931, the Dow jumped 14.87% in one day. The year 2001 saw the Nasdaq bolt 14.17% in a day. The infamous 1929 collapse delivered a 12.34% Dow pop in one day. In 2008, the Nasdaq surged 11.81% in a day. In 1932, the Dow rose 11.37% in a single day. The 2008 Dow raced 10.88% higher in a day. The Nasdaq in 2000 swaggered up 10.48% in one session. And in 1987, the Dow leaped 10.15% in a single bound.”
https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest ... ame=iossmf
That's a lot of verbs for 'up'.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
As of 4PM, I am 100% cash/bonds. 34 years old. Yes, I know timing the market is a bad idea. Yes, I know this could cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars in the future and I may never know when to "get back in". Whatever, I'm shooting my shot. Don't be like me.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
So weirdPseybert wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:36 pm As of 4PM, I am 100% cash/bonds. 34 years old. Yes, I know timing the market is a bad idea. Yes, I know this could cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars in the future and I may never know when to "get back in". Whatever, I'm shooting my shot. Don't be like me.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
I know, I was being facetious. Sorry for the confusion. It might just be a bear market rally. Nobody knows.Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:56 pmThe 5% Dow move we saw today is indicative of weak overall market action, not strong. The other 10 5% Dow advances in the last 80 years all occurred in bear markets.
Not predicting anything, just saying 5% moves are normally based on hope that the worst is over. But only in hindsight has it proven to to not be over.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
The falling knife will catch the dead cat.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
But aren’t markets smarter than just “well gee, I know factories are closing, etc., but since earnings estimates haven’t been formally adjusted yet, I’ll just assume they won’t change”?watchnerd wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:44 pm I expect stocks to go lower as earnings come in over the next two quarters.
Right now stocks could look like a good deal because earnings haven't been updated -- only cautionary warnings given, but few real numbers.
OECD is expecting a global GDP hit, ranging from 0.5% to 1-1.5%, depending on how things pan out.
I'd expect US stocks to go down 5-15% more by the end of June as earning and GDP numbers come in.
Disclaimer: this is just drinking game discussion, and has no impact on my investment strategy.
They are forward-looking and supposedly ruthlessly efficient.
- nisiprius
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
I keep being puzzled by expectations that the Fed will step in. The Fed's mandate, written into law since 1977, is "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates."
Do we not have maximum employment?
Do we not have stable prices?
Do we not have moderate long-term interest rates?
Why should the Fed do anything?
Do we not have maximum employment?
Do we not have stable prices?
Do we not have moderate long-term interest rates?
Why should the Fed do anything?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?
Where have you been living for the last two decades? It has been all Fed finengineering hasn't it?nisiprius wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:29 pm I keep being puzzled by expectations that the Fed will step in. The Fed's mandate, written into law since 1977, is "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates."
Do we not have maximum employment?
Do we not have stable prices?
Do we not have moderate long-term interest rates?
Why should the Fed do anything?
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