Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

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dru808
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by dru808 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:44 pm

firebirdparts wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:05 pm
What's your feeling about the moon landings?
How do you land on a light in the sky past the dome?
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Richard1580
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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by Richard1580 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:45 pm

It seems to me that the wild gyrations in the market are indicative of a high FUD (Fear/Uncertainty/Doubt) factor. No one knows nothing and the market could go anywhere.

I took the opportunity today to do some rebalancing and some Roth conversions. That said, I would not be surprised to see the market return to its previous highs, drop another 10%, or continue to convulse.

If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:46 pm

Short squeeze.

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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by One Ping » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:49 pm

Richard1580 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:45 pm
If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.
Cheshire cat?
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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by Thesaints » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:52 pm

One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:11 pm
An alive cat bounce would be a 100% recovery of the fall, back to the previous high.
Still unsatisfied: this definition includes a recovery in steps. Clearly, a DCB has to recover a chunk of the losses (but not all !) and then go back again. "go back" by how much ?

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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by firebirdparts » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:53 pm

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt
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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by One Ping » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:54 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:52 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:11 pm
An alive cat bounce would be a 100% recovery of the fall, back to the previous high.
Still unsatisfied: this definition includes a recovery in steps. Clearly, a DCB has to recover a chunk of the losses (but not all !) and then go back again. "go back" by how much ?
Back to/through the low it bounced off of?
"Re-verify our range to target ... one ping only."

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:54 pm

Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by DaftInvestor » Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:57 pm

dru808 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:44 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:05 pm
What's your feeling about the moon landings?
How do you land on a light in the sky past the dome?
LOL! (I recently caught the "Behind the Curve" Documentary on NetFlix).

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by dru808 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:00 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
Yup, and not switching up your aa because you have a“hunch”.
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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by Thesaints » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:00 pm

One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Thesaints wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:52 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:11 pm
An alive cat bounce would be a 100% recovery of the fall, back to the previous high.
Still unsatisfied: this definition includes a recovery in steps. Clearly, a DCB has to recover a chunk of the losses (but not all !) and then go back again. "go back" by how much ?
Back to/through the low it bounced off of?
OK. Now, the problem is that it can go back to the previous minimum, but also it can go lower. Which means the previous minimum was not the minimum at all.
The DCB has simply become a zig-zag pattern along the way to the real bottom, which we will be able to identify only ex-post.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by vipertom1970 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:03 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
yes and go back and look at all the advice you got since day 1 but the good thing is it's never too late.
Last edited by vipertom1970 on Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:03 pm

No, it's the dead cat shuffle. :sharebeer

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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by Johnnyone » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:04 pm

Image

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:04 pm

vipertom1970 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:03 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
yes and go back and look at all the advice you got since day 1 but it's never too late.
Thanks Friend! 8-) :beer

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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by One Ping » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:07 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:00 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Thesaints wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:52 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:11 pm
An alive cat bounce would be a 100% recovery of the fall, back to the previous high.
Still unsatisfied: this definition includes a recovery in steps. Clearly, a DCB has to recover a chunk of the losses (but not all !) and then go back again. "go back" by how much ?
Back to/through the low it bounced off of?
OK. Now, the problem is that it can go back to the previous minimum, but also it can go lower. Which means the previous minimum was not the minimum at all.
The DCB has simply become a zig-zag pattern along the way to the real bottom, which we will be able to identify only ex-post.
Sure. Any reason you can't have more than one DCB during a downtrend?
"Re-verify our range to target ... one ping only."

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:07 pm

I merged Johnnyone's thread into the on-going discussion.
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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:10 pm

Johnnyone wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:04 pm
Image
My new desktop background picture
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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by Thesaints » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:11 pm

One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:07 pm
Sure. Any reason you can't have more than one DCB during a downtrend?
This:
https://imgur.com/j3mioCz

You begin to see dead kitties all around.

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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by firebirdparts » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:11 pm

One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:07 pm
Thesaints wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:00 pm

OK. Now, the problem is that it can go back to the previous minimum, but also it can go lower. Which means the previous minimum was not the minimum at all.
The DCB has simply become a zig-zag pattern along the way to the real bottom, which we will be able to identify only ex-post.
Sure. Any reason you can't have more than one DCB during a downtrend?
Oh, heavens no. You can have as many as it takes.
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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by fishandgolf » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:13 pm

One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:49 pm
Richard1580 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:45 pm
If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.
Cheshire cat?
That is one Putty big Putty Tat...... :sharebeer

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by mrspock » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:15 pm

Gemini1962 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:37 pm
The S&P was up today having scared many new investors out of the market last week. So I'm expecting it to now rise to lure them back in for FOMO and then take another plunge later to really scare 'em again. I am totally convinced that the stock market is rigged by the big institutions.

Thoughts?
The only rigging is the predictable nature of how investors cave to their own emotions and narratives they build in their heads.

The traders employed by hedge funds and “institutions” just do their jobs and leverage this — you also need to remember it’s easier for them to stay unemotional since often it isn’t their personal money on the line. Just don’t play the game and “stay the course” .

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by vipertom1970 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:18 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:04 pm
vipertom1970 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:03 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:54 pm
Is THIS why you should ALWAYS be buying (DCAing)? Darn, I was going to be some FSKAX Total Market! Should've bought it at $83!
yes and go back and look at all the advice you got since day 1 but it's never too late.
Thanks Friend! 8-) :beer
you or me could never beat institutional investors with billion of dollars that could move the market up or down but you could easily beat them with buy and hold strategy and DCA.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Mactheriverrat » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:21 pm

I see no dead cat bounce.

I do see a bounce off long term support.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by nisiprius » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:28 pm

Oh, man. It reminds me of 2009-2010, not in the sense of necessarily being over, but all of the confused and contradictory speculation. Was it a "dead cat bounce?" Was it a "classic value trap?" Was it going to be "a V-shaped recovery or an L-shaped recovery?"

Reading about 1929-1933, it looks like a single plunge on large-scale charts, but the day-by-day accounts show that the ups and downs were continuously confusing, with constant ups punctuating the downs and making people think it was over. I'm not saying this is 1929, either, I'm just saying that things that seem so clear in hindsight are unbelievably confusing and contradictory while they are in progress.
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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by BionicBillWalsh » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:31 pm

One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:49 pm
Richard1580 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:45 pm
If there is a cat analogy in this market it is aimless wandering and unpredictability.
Cheshire cat?
One being trained by circus monkeys
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:44 pm

I expect stocks to go lower as earnings come in over the next two quarters.

Right now stocks could look like a good deal because earnings haven't been updated -- only cautionary warnings given, but few real numbers.

OECD is expecting a global GDP hit, ranging from 0.5% to 1-1.5%, depending on how things pan out.

I'd expect US stocks to go down 5-15% more by the end of June as earning and GDP numbers come in.

Disclaimer: this is just drinking game discussion, and has no impact on my investment strategy.
Last edited by watchnerd on Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by FelixTheCat » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:46 pm

Meoooow
Felix is a wonderful, wonderful cat.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Nicolas » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:46 pm

No it isn’t. The correction is over. Get back in now if you sold.

Edit: Never mind, I’m probably wrong.
Last edited by Nicolas on Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by goodenyou » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:51 pm

Can a dead cat catch a falling knife?
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by lessismore22 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:53 pm

Cat must have landed on a trampoline today.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by H-Town » Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:54 pm

Gemini1962 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:37 pm
The S&P was up today having scared many new investors out of the market last week.
This is a conjecture. It's not a fact.
So I'm expecting it to now rise to lure them back in for FOMO and then take another plunge later to really scare 'em again.
Again, a conjecture. Little worse than the one above.
I am totally convinced that the stock market is rigged by the big institutions.
A total misinformation and/or conspiracy. If any big institutions have the power to rig the market, the market would have already broken. Nothing would keep the big institutions from maximizing their profits. As such, individual investors would probably have been wiped out a long time ago.
Thoughts?
Slow news today?

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by surfstar » Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:09 pm

Mactheriverrat wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:21 pm
I see no dead cat bounce.

I do see a bounce off long term support.
Image
All that technical speak, mumbo jumbo, can't predict a thing.

I believe in the dead cat bounce. Much more believable. :D

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Re: Dead cat bounce?

Post by One Ping » Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:47 pm

Thesaints wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:11 pm
One Ping wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:07 pm
Sure. Any reason you can't have more than one DCB during a downtrend?
This:
https://imgur.com/j3mioCz

You begin to see dead kitties all around.
So, your point is that ANY arbitrary recovery amount from ANY size drop, no matter how small, could qualify as a DCB. Hmm ... I think I have to agree.

Maybe you can only have a DCB once you have a certain size drop, say 10%, from previous high. Any smaller drop and they don't really bounce. :wink:
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:38 pm

drg02b wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:37 pm
Gemini1962 wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:37 pm
The S&P was up today having scared many new investors out of the market last week. So I'm expecting it to now rise to lure them back in for FOMO and then take another plunge later to really scare 'em again. I am totally convinced that the stock market is rigged by the big institutions.

Thoughts?
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The word from Asia is the market went up today in "The Heat of the Moment."
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Kenkat » Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:41 pm

It’s either a dead count bounce or the cat is going to scratch your eyes out when you poke it to see if it is dead. We just don’t know which.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Mactheriverrat » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:25 pm

surfstar wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 6:09 pm
Mactheriverrat wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:21 pm
I see no dead cat bounce.

I do see a bounce off long term support.
Image
All that technical speak, mumbo jumbo, can't predict a thing.

I believe in the dead cat bounce. Much more believable. :D
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Corsair » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:48 pm

Saw this online:

“The nine biggest percentage gains in an index often occurred in a bear market.

In 1933, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 15.34% in one session — the biggest one day percentage gain ever. In 1931, the Dow jumped 14.87% in one day. The year 2001 saw the Nasdaq bolt 14.17% in a day. The infamous 1929 collapse delivered a 12.34% Dow pop in one day. In 2008, the Nasdaq surged 11.81% in a day. In 1932, the Dow rose 11.37% in a single day. The 2008 Dow raced 10.88% higher in a day. The Nasdaq in 2000 swaggered up 10.48% in one session. And in 1987, the Dow leaped 10.15% in a single bound.”

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Dottie57 » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:53 pm

DaftInvestor wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:37 pm
As stated in the other thread with same term: I know the "DCB" terminology wasn't invented here but I just have to chime in and state I hate it. It conjures up a bad visual for me.
+1

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by 1130Super » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:55 pm

5% is not a dead cat bounce
Last edited by 1130Super on Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Wanderingwheelz » Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:56 pm

Nicolas wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:46 pm
No it isn’t. The correction is over. Get back in now if you sold.
The 5% Dow move we saw today is indicative of weak overall market action, not strong. The other 10 5% Dow advances in the last 80 years all occurred in bear markets.

Not predicting anything, just saying 5% moves are normally based on hope that the worst is over. But only in hindsight has it proven to to not be over.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by watchnerd » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:02 pm

Corsair wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:48 pm
Saw this online:

“The nine biggest percentage gains in an index often occurred in a bear market.

In 1933, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 15.34% in one session — the biggest one day percentage gain ever. In 1931, the Dow jumped 14.87% in one day. The year 2001 saw the Nasdaq bolt 14.17% in a day. The infamous 1929 collapse delivered a 12.34% Dow pop in one day. In 2008, the Nasdaq surged 11.81% in a day. In 1932, the Dow rose 11.37% in a single day. The 2008 Dow raced 10.88% higher in a day. The Nasdaq in 2000 swaggered up 10.48% in one session. And in 1987, the Dow leaped 10.15% in a single bound.”

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Misenplace » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:18 pm

This thread has run its course and is locked (topic exhausted). See: Locked Topics
After further review, the thread has been unlocked. Please stay on topic and refrain from speculating on conspiracy theories.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Pseybert » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:36 pm

As of 4PM, I am 100% cash/bonds. 34 years old. Yes, I know timing the market is a bad idea. Yes, I know this could cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars in the future and I may never know when to "get back in". Whatever, I'm shooting my shot. Don't be like me.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by DrPayItBack » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:41 pm

Pseybert wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:36 pm
As of 4PM, I am 100% cash/bonds. 34 years old. Yes, I know timing the market is a bad idea. Yes, I know this could cost me hundreds of thousands of dollars in the future and I may never know when to "get back in". Whatever, I'm shooting my shot. Don't be like me.
So weird

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Nicolas » Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:51 pm

Wanderingwheelz wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 8:56 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:46 pm
No it isn’t. The correction is over. Get back in now if you sold.
The 5% Dow move we saw today is indicative of weak overall market action, not strong. The other 10 5% Dow advances in the last 80 years all occurred in bear markets.

Not predicting anything, just saying 5% moves are normally based on hope that the worst is over. But only in hindsight has it proven to to not be over.
I know, I was being facetious. Sorry for the confusion. It might just be a bear market rally. Nobody knows.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by Unladen_Swallow » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:16 pm

goodenyou wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:51 pm
Can a dead cat catch a falling knife?
The falling knife will catch the dead cat.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by CoastalWinds » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:24 pm

watchnerd wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:44 pm
I expect stocks to go lower as earnings come in over the next two quarters.

Right now stocks could look like a good deal because earnings haven't been updated -- only cautionary warnings given, but few real numbers.

OECD is expecting a global GDP hit, ranging from 0.5% to 1-1.5%, depending on how things pan out.

I'd expect US stocks to go down 5-15% more by the end of June as earning and GDP numbers come in.

Disclaimer: this is just drinking game discussion, and has no impact on my investment strategy.
But aren’t markets smarter than just “well gee, I know factories are closing, etc., but since earnings estimates haven’t been formally adjusted yet, I’ll just assume they won’t change”?

They are forward-looking and supposedly ruthlessly efficient.

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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by nisiprius » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:29 pm

I keep being puzzled by expectations that the Fed will step in. The Fed's mandate, written into law since 1977, is "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates."

Do we not have maximum employment?
Do we not have stable prices?
Do we not have moderate long-term interest rates?

Why should the Fed do anything?
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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CULater
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Re: Is this the start of the dead cat bounce?

Post by CULater » Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:34 pm

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Mar 02, 2020 10:29 pm
I keep being puzzled by expectations that the Fed will step in. The Fed's mandate, written into law since 1977, is "promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long term interest rates."

Do we not have maximum employment?
Do we not have stable prices?
Do we not have moderate long-term interest rates?

Why should the Fed do anything?
Where have you been living for the last two decades? It has been all Fed finengineering hasn't it?
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

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