Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Dust off your crystal balls (no jokes please) and give it a try!
Maybe we'll come back here in a few months (or years) and see who had the best guess.
I'll start: -20%
Dust off your crystal balls (no jokes please) and give it a try!
Maybe we'll come back here in a few months (or years) and see who had the best guess.
I'll start: -20%
Get most of it right and don't make any big mistakes. All else being equal, simpler is better. Simple is as simple does.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-40% (S&P)
"The day you die is just like any other, only shorter." |
― Samuel Beckett
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-20 % to -25 %
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
S&P 500 @ 1,700 - 2,000 (additional 30-40% drop)
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-23.5% (S&P) followed by moderate gains and another substantial but not Recession-level dip later this year.
- geerhardusvos
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-30%
Although, I did just get rid of my small emergency fund by buying SP 500, so I hope this is the bottom
VTSAX and chill
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Just shy of the bear market indicator of 20%, that way just like after December 2018, people can keep saying we're in the longest bull market ever
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I just pulled the trigger and bought 3% of my AA at -15% and plan to buy every 15% sale, I mean, drop. I'm ready to buy all the way to 60%, so to me it doesnt matter much. In my mid 30s so got some 15+ years until I can call it a day
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Logically, even if we assume 0 productivity for the next year, the discount on equities should be no more than 10%, assuming normal levels of productivity for the following years. After all, this year only constitutes a small fraction of the future cash flows which give stocks their value.
Further declines could be explained by panic, margin calls, and stop loss orders.
Of course as we can all see a 10% drop is not how the market reacted...
Further declines could be explained by panic, margin calls, and stop loss orders.
Of course as we can all see a 10% drop is not how the market reacted...
- Bernmaster
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
World stock market down 20-25%, Emerging Markets >30%. Bought some extra VGWL shares this morning with my tax returns.
"The unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness” ― Warren Buffett
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
16% (in other words: today is the bottom)
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
What is the base number for these % based on?]
I am more comfortable with a number of where you think it will dip down to
I am more comfortable with a number of where you think it will dip down to
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
The optimist is in the house!
Get most of it right and don't make any big mistakes. All else being equal, simpler is better. Simple is as simple does.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I believe the peak for the SP500 was about 3390.niceguy7376 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:05 pm What is the base number for these % based on?]
I am more comfortable with a number of where you think it will dip down to
Get most of it right and don't make any big mistakes. All else being equal, simpler is better. Simple is as simple does.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
My guess would be maybe about a 20% top to bottom loss.
A lot of shorts that have been squeezed have accelerated this selling along with panic selling by non bogleheads.
I think this coronavirus risk will alleviate in and month or so as the flu season abates.
Once risk is somewhat known and able to be calculated, the same problem still exists, there is no alternative for your money with the low interest environment.
Just a guess, nobody knows nothing.
A lot of shorts that have been squeezed have accelerated this selling along with panic selling by non bogleheads.
I think this coronavirus risk will alleviate in and month or so as the flu season abates.
Once risk is somewhat known and able to be calculated, the same problem still exists, there is no alternative for your money with the low interest environment.
Just a guess, nobody knows nothing.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
My guess: 40%.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
This crystal ball picture is off quite a bit. Actually, it’s just plain wrong. Must be fogged up or something. Here is what is going to happen: We will see a drop of 37.2% after which the S&P will skyrocket, and even exceed, its all time high. The free fall, also known as “The Great Panic of 2020,”will just be a tale for the investment history books and Bogleheads will all live happily ever after.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
My forecast: This virus throws the world into a moderate recession and US yields smash through zero. The central banks hit the gas hard and early and keep rates anchored to zero while restarting QE, but this doesn't accomplish anything since those levers have already been pulled. We end up in a deflationary spiral, the markets lose faith in central banks ability to keep the world economy afloat and we crash down 60%. Then policy makers start with fiscal stimulus which brings back inflation with no growth, starting a multi decade long bear market in treasuries.
Just kidding, nobody really knows what will happen.
Just kidding, nobody really knows what will happen.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-100% by 2020202020
I assume that by then we won't be trading stocks
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I don't like dip, particularly the bottom. That's where all the crusty bits are.
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Bottom fishing can be very dangerous.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I have no idea what will happen in the future, but these central bankers can't postpone the recession forever. I hope that what they have done won't cause stagnation in the 2020s.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I guess it's today every day. At least, I act that way.
- firebirdparts
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I think it might have been today.
This time is the same
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Today’s close.
2,954.22 for the S&P.
You heard it in this thread first.
2,954.22 for the S&P.
You heard it in this thread first.
Last edited by Stinky on Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
10-YR @ 1% or less.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I'll be the village pessimist to be taken lightly because my investment skills are very limited.
This thing spreads in the US, but the summer stops it -> 30-50%
This thing spreads in the US and shrugs off the summer -> triple digit percentages.
The latter might just reshape and redefine what America is for the better, so despite the fact that it will totally ruin my future retirement
I sometimes find myself rooting for it.
This thing spreads in the US, but the summer stops it -> 30-50%
This thing spreads in the US and shrugs off the summer -> triple digit percentages.
The latter might just reshape and redefine what America is for the better, so despite the fact that it will totally ruin my future retirement
I sometimes find myself rooting for it.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I have no idea.
We are mid-career, 20+ years from retiring, and committed to steady purchases via automated 401(k) and our own after tax savings/investing. So, buy less high, buy more low, it all just moves forward in a (mostly) DCA fashion.
Once in awhile, since we buy ETFs, I can try to buy the dips on a given day if things are turbulent.
Coincidentally, we had around $5,000 this week that normally is earmarked for investments parked in our savings waiting to see a couple life outcomes (taxes, job change).
Decided to move that into equities today (ETFs via Schwab).
1. We got some good tax info.
2. The prices on some of our key ETFs looked great today, especially purchased as Market orders. I was getting 50 cent discounts. (Yay, a whopping $5 on 10 shares.)
Ie. SCHB, SCHF, SCHE, SLYV all had share prices that were eye-catching.
SLYV at $54.53 was less than the June 2014 high.
SCHB at $68.90 matched the January 2018 high. (But tbf it's been lower, recently as well!)
These prices could all go down further from here, but even if they do, this felt like a good price for these two ETFs for a buy and hold approach.
But, again, I have no idea where the bottom is! I don't think this represents a structural change, however, so much as an event.
We are mid-career, 20+ years from retiring, and committed to steady purchases via automated 401(k) and our own after tax savings/investing. So, buy less high, buy more low, it all just moves forward in a (mostly) DCA fashion.
Once in awhile, since we buy ETFs, I can try to buy the dips on a given day if things are turbulent.
Coincidentally, we had around $5,000 this week that normally is earmarked for investments parked in our savings waiting to see a couple life outcomes (taxes, job change).
Decided to move that into equities today (ETFs via Schwab).
1. We got some good tax info.
2. The prices on some of our key ETFs looked great today, especially purchased as Market orders. I was getting 50 cent discounts. (Yay, a whopping $5 on 10 shares.)
Ie. SCHB, SCHF, SCHE, SLYV all had share prices that were eye-catching.
SLYV at $54.53 was less than the June 2014 high.
SCHB at $68.90 matched the January 2018 high. (But tbf it's been lower, recently as well!)
These prices could all go down further from here, but even if they do, this felt like a good price for these two ETFs for a buy and hold approach.
But, again, I have no idea where the bottom is! I don't think this represents a structural change, however, so much as an event.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
All that and no guess.SantaClaraSurfer wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:24 pm I have no idea.
We are mid-career, 20+ years from retiring, and committed to steady purchases via automated 401(k) and our own after tax savings/investing. So, buy less high, buy more low, it all just moves forward in a (mostly) DCA fashion.
Once in awhile, since we buy ETFs, I can try to buy the dips on a given day if things are turbulent.
Coincidentally, we had around $5,000 this week that normally is earmarked for investments parked in our savings waiting to see a couple life outcomes (taxes, job change).
Decided to move that into equities today (ETFs via Schwab).
1. We got some good tax info.
2. The prices on some of our key ETFs looked great today, especially purchased as Market orders. I was getting 50 cent discounts. (Yay, a whopping $5 on 10 shares.)
Ie. SCHB, SCHF, SCHE, SLYV all had share prices that were eye-catching.
SLYV at $54.53 was less than the June 2014 high.
SCHB at $68.90 matched the January 2018 high. (But tbf it's been lower, recently as well!)
These prices could all go down further from here, but even if they do, this felt like a good price for these two ETFs for a buy and hold approach.
But, again, I have no idea where the bottom is! I don't think this represents a structural change, however, so much as an event.
Get most of it right and don't make any big mistakes. All else being equal, simpler is better. Simple is as simple does.
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I'll assume it is based on S&P 500.
From the chart, it looks like the peak was 3386.15 on 2/19/2020. It closed this week at 2954.22.
So it is down -12.6% since the peak.
I bought stocks on 2/24, 2/27 and 2/27. If the market goes lower, I plan to buy more stocks. I would like to see some better bargains.
But I think that on Monday the S&P 500 will open higher. I also think that the S&P 500 will close out next week higher. So I will predict that this is the bottom of the dip.
Of course this is just a guess. It depends on what news comes out over the weekend. I actually have no idea what will happen next week and beyond.
- Crushtheturtle
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- Location: SC
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
This forum's rules prevent me from responding in the manner you deserve.alwyn wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:20 pm I'll be the village pessimist to be taken lightly because my investment skills are very limited.
This thing spreads in the US, but the summer stops it -> 30-50%
This thing spreads in the US and shrugs off the summer -> triple digit percentages.
The latter might just reshape and redefine what America is for the better, so despite the fact that it will totally ruin my future retirement
I sometimes find myself rooting for it.
- Boglehead meets Daytrader |
- The opposite of love is apathy. I apathy the market
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-16% from the previous high.
If you can believe what we're hearing... new cases are slowing and China's reopening mfg plants, so, things will look brighter next week.
Hopefully they can stick to the facts and keep overdramatic hyperbole in check.
If you can believe what we're hearing... new cases are slowing and China's reopening mfg plants, so, things will look brighter next week.
Hopefully they can stick to the facts and keep overdramatic hyperbole in check.
Last edited by Johnsson on Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
'In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.' Yogi Berra
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Okay! My actions today mean I put my guess that at in 8-12 months, however much lower this goes (maybe 7-15% more? who knows?) we will be back to around this level or better.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a big sell off if there's additional bad virus news (or otherwise) this year. Maybe the Dow could dip below 20,000 or more?
From a long term point of view, however, today's prices seemed good for SCHB and SLYV.
Of course, all of us who are still purchasing, will buy more if they go lower!
- Sandtrap
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-28%
94 days from yesterday.
Recovery:
Shortly after November 2020.
j
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Yea, shortly after November 2020, starting right after November 3rd.
Get most of it right and don't make any big mistakes. All else being equal, simpler is better. Simple is as simple does.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I think we'll hit a unofficial mini-recession. It'll only be one quarter of negative GDP growth, and the quarter thereafter will be positive, but anemic enough to feel like a recession because of unrealistic expectations about how quickly things should bounce back.
As for the markets, I don't have any numbers to offer a guess with, but this is feeling like a dead cat bounce coming up to me.
As for the markets, I don't have any numbers to offer a guess with, but this is feeling like a dead cat bounce coming up to me.
- SimpleGift
- Posts: 4477
- Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:45 pm
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
During the 2003 SARS epidemic, though it only lasted a few months, the market sold off until people began to understand the scope and impacts of the virus (S&P 500 was down 10% at max, chart below) — even as new cases were showing up every day.
Source: SIM
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
You know emerging is down less than developed YTD so far, right?Bernmaster wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:04 pm World stock market down 20-25%, Emerging Markets >30%. Bought some extra VGWL shares this morning with my tax returns.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I'll guess the S&P500 drops another 5-10% from here. About 200-300 more points to about 2700.
It could bottom there sometime in March or sometime in July-Aug., or both (double dip to same low.) And end the year about here; 2950.
It could bottom there sometime in March or sometime in July-Aug., or both (double dip to same low.) And end the year about here; 2950.
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-18-19% if the temperatures help to recover and reduce the infection rate. I also think the worst time period is mid April-early May for the first quarter results.
If the temperature does not help and infection keeps going(as in Singapore), impact continues beyond 1 quarter, I expect ~32-36% drop.
If the temperature does not help and infection keeps going(as in Singapore), impact continues beyond 1 quarter, I expect ~32-36% drop.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
-27% for VTI
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Agreed, today. Esp if S Korean outbreak levels out over the weekend.
But then Covid comes roaring back in the fall, overwhelms, and we get the nightmare scenario, -40% pre-election, keeps dropping post-election for a total -65% loss.
- willthrill81
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Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
This weekend's developments may have a big impact on news regarding the virus, which is certainly the cause for the current correction. I think that the worst of the drop may be behind us now though.
If pressed, I'd say that the bottom for the S&P 500 will be 2,850.
If pressed, I'd say that the bottom for the S&P 500 will be 2,850.
The Sensible Steward
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
So stocks drop below zero?
Sounds like a time to back up the truck
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
I'll go 140% stocks if they fall below zero!
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder