U.S. stocks in free fall

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stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:39 pm

Futures UP now, mom and pops investors coming in to prop it up temporarily thinking they are getting a good deal :oops: This retracement is far from over... same thing happened in Feb 2018, 2% kickback and then it goes down the hole again...

Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nicolas » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:02 pm

oldzey wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:15 pm
No dead cat bounce today...

Image
Isn’t that the roadrunner? A canine not a feline.

ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:09 pm

Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:02 pm
oldzey wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:15 pm
No dead cat bounce today...

Image
Isn’t that the roadrunner? A canine not a feline.
The roadrunner is an avian. That there is wile e coyote I believe.

langlands
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by langlands » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:16 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:39 pm
Futures UP now, mom and pops investors coming in to prop it up temporarily thinking they are getting a good deal :oops: This retracement is far from over... same thing happened in Feb 2018, 2% kickback and then it goes down the hole again...
Hm, I looked a little bit over your post history and found this from Sunday:
market reaction is muted.. in Feb 2018 the Dow was falling 1500 points in a single day and here we are fretting about 350 points? c'mon now.. i'll notice if it falls 1000+ points in a day otherwise it isn't news.
Seems like your view has changed drastically over the course of literally two days (I assume because of the market movements). I hope you didn't make any drastic changes to your asset allocation. Perhaps you've decided your previous asset allocation was too risky, but I just want you to be aware you may be overreacting.

Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Nicolas » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:18 pm

ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:09 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:02 pm
oldzey wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:15 pm
No dead cat bounce today...

Image
Isn’t that the roadrunner? A canine not a feline.
The roadrunner is an avian. That there is wile e coyote I believe.
Oops, I meant the coyote from the Roadrunner cartoon. Sorry, I need sleep.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:21 pm

Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:18 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:09 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:02 pm
oldzey wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:15 pm
No dead cat bounce today...

Image
Isn’t that the roadrunner? A canine not a feline.
The roadrunner is an avian. That there is wile e coyote I believe.
Oops, I meant the coyote from the Roadrunner cartoon. Sorry.
But the question remains: Is he wily? :confused
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

daave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by daave » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:13 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:39 pm
Futures UP now, mom and pops investors coming in to prop it up temporarily thinking they are getting a good deal :oops: This retracement is far from over... same thing happened in Feb 2018, 2% kickback and then it goes down the hole again...
"mom and pop investors" don't trade in the futures market (at least not in any substantial volume) - need a better explanation than that

As for me, staying the course and per IPS waiting for my portfolio spreadsheet to say I'm over 5 percentage points off target in some asset class before rebalancing - only 1.3% off the mark today

I am tempted to buy out-of-the-money (strike 300) Dec 18 2020 puts on SPY with a small amount of play money, but haven't pulled the trigger


Edits: so many typos tonight! Must be the Fat Tuesday mead.

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:41 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm
I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
That's true. Also a great test of discipline. Better to experience the first crash with 50k invested than 500k.

Europe keeps collapsing today btw.

thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:10 am

Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:41 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm
I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
That's true. Also a great test of discipline. Better to experience the first crash with 50k invested than 500k.

Europe keeps collapsing today btw.
I've "stayed the course" through 2 days of -3%. I think after today I might take a little off the table. Why keep losing money? This thing IS NOT going to get better any time soon I fear. (virus). At least until we get down to some "upturn" days to get back in. I have a feeling this is going to go to -20% and maybe beyond day after day.

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:19 am

What if you are wrong and we are back on track? When will you re-enter the market?

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Third Son
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Third Son » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:24 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:10 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:41 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm
I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
That's true. Also a great test of discipline. Better to experience the first crash with 50k invested than 500k.

Europe keeps collapsing today btw.
I've "stayed the course" through 2 days of -3%. I think after today I might take a little off the table. Why keep losing money? This thing IS NOT going to get better any time soon I fear. (virus). At least until we get down to some "upturn" days to get back in. I have a feeling this is going to go to -20% and maybe beyond day after day.
If you do that, you will never get ahead. Hang in there.
"A part of all you earn is yours to keep" | | -The Richest Man in Babylon

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:33 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:10 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:41 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm
I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
That's true. Also a great test of discipline. Better to experience the first crash with 50k invested than 500k.

Europe keeps collapsing today btw.
I've "stayed the course" through 2 days of -3%. I think after today I might take a little off the table. Why keep losing money? This thing IS NOT going to get better any time soon I fear. (virus). At least until we get down to some "upturn" days to get back in. I have a feeling this is going to go to -20% and maybe beyond day after day.
I think Jack said, "Don't just do something, stand there." ?
Global Market Cap Equity || Taxable: VTSAX+VTIAX || IRA: VTWAX

thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:58 am

Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:19 am
What if you are wrong and we are back on track? When will you re-enter the market?
t's not gonna happen today. When I see it start to go back up one day. I'll get in the next day. How come all I hear on the news is "everyone's selling" over the last days. Do they know something I don't ?
Last edited by thelateinvestor43 on Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:59 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:10 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:41 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm
I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
That's true. Also a great test of discipline. Better to experience the first crash with 50k invested than 500k.

Europe keeps collapsing today btw.
I've "stayed the course" through 2 days of -3%. I think after today I might take a little off the table. Why keep losing money? This thing IS NOT going to get better any time soon I fear. (virus). At least until we get down to some "upturn" days to get back in. I have a feeling this is going to go to -20% and maybe beyond day after day.
Wait, are you proposing selling low and buying high? :confused

thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:59 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:10 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:41 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm
I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
That's true. Also a great test of discipline. Better to experience the first crash with 50k invested than 500k.

Europe keeps collapsing today btw.
I've "stayed the course" through 2 days of -3%. I think after today I might take a little off the table. Why keep losing money? This thing IS NOT going to get better any time soon I fear. (virus). At least until we get down to some "upturn" days to get back in. I have a feeling this is going to go to -20% and maybe beyond day after day.
Wait, are you proposing selling low and buying high? :confused
No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50%, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more. Classic market timing. :moneybag

I wouldn't normally do this, but this virus has me scared and I think it's going to be months if not a year of losses before things get better. Maybe I'm wrong, but I have a bad feeling on this one!
Last edited by thelateinvestor43 on Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:04 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 am
No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more.
And you know it will drop to -20%? What if today is the low point and the markets keeps going up for another 10 years? When will you re-enter the market? Never?

thelateinvestor43
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:05 am

Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 am
No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more.
And you know it will drop to -20%? What if today is the low point and the markets keeps going up for another 10 years? When will you re-enter the market? Never?
I'll reenter if I see a few GAIN days in a row maybe? Why does everyone always assume you can "never" get back in??

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:07 am

Because it doesn't work like that. If you let your emotions control your actions, you will never be a successful investor.

Maybe rethink your AA and don't try to time the market.

GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:10 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:05 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 am
No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more.
And you know it will drop to -20%? What if today is the low point and the markets keeps going up for another 10 years? When will you re-enter the market? Never?
I'll reenter if I see a few GAIN days in a row maybe? Why does everyone always assume you can "never" get back in??
You can get back in, but it doesn’t always work out the way you think will. Usually one is better off leaving things alone, which is sort of the whole premise of Boglehead philosophy. Stay the course, don’t try to market time...

sid hartha
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sid hartha » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:14 am

Bluce wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:46 am
sid hartha wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:37 am
I have not made any changes to my investments as a result of the decline yesterday. Do I get some type of award?
Me neither. Are there that many market timers at BH.0rg?
More than I would have thought.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:36 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:05 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 am
No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more.
And you know it will drop to -20%? What if today is the low point and the markets keeps going up for another 10 years? When will you re-enter the market? Never?
I'll reenter if I see a few GAIN days in a row maybe? Why does everyone always assume you can "never" get back in??
Stay the course man. Don't do it. It never works out.

It's your money and you can do what you want but...

Do you have an IPS. Investment Policy Statement?

Sounds like you need to step.back and develop a plan and an asset allocation you can stick with.
Global Market Cap Equity || Taxable: VTSAX+VTIAX || IRA: VTWAX

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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:43 am

thelateinvestor43,

Spend some time playing this game and check your long-term track record (more than just a couple games) following your current real-life strategy:

https://qz.com/487013/this-game-will-sh ... right-now/

It's possible to get lucky and "win" a few times, and you can develop a rule that often allows you to lock in small gains, all while knowing this is a game and not real money, but consider also potential real-world transaction costs and tax impacts. I hope the path will be clear.

as9
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by as9 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:46 am

I’m convinced thelateinvestor is a troll. And a pretty good one.

pharmermummles
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pharmermummles » Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:48 am

as9 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:46 am
I’m convinced thelateinvestor is a troll. And a pretty good one.
I was beginning to think the same thing...

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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:04 am

Maybe. Aren't there more fertile topics and forums to troll?

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:30 am

lostdog wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:36 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:05 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 am
No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more.
And you know it will drop to -20%? What if today is the low point and the markets keeps going up for another 10 years? When will you re-enter the market? Never?
I'll reenter if I see a few GAIN days in a row maybe? Why does everyone always assume you can "never" get back in??
Stay the course man. Don't do it. It never works out.

It's your money and you can do what you want but...

Do you have an IPS. Investment Policy Statement?

Sounds like you need to step.back and develop a plan and an asset allocation you can stick with.
FWIW, a post I made here last Sunday. This is '08 as I recall it -- italics added:
Bluce wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:17 pm
As I recall in '08, and I think this is typical in all bears, the dang thing can drop several % in a day, then again the next day, then take a breather or even go up some the next day or two (and you think it's over with), then the bottom falls out again the next few days. You never know where it's finally going to stop, sometimes thinking it will go to zero.

And it did this for a year and a half, although (as I recall) the worst was several months in the fall of '08 when Leahman and Bear Stearns went up in smoke. I was in the market in 2000 also, but TBH I don't remember the details. And maybe I don't have '08 right, but that's what I remember.
It's impossible to second-guess what's going to happen the next day or week -- aside from "Stopped Clock" predictions.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:35 am

as9 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:46 am
I’m convinced thelateinvestor is a troll. And a pretty good one.
I felt that way since the beginning and was super happy to see recent posts indicating they are finally understanding things. These recent posts above though have left me wondering and regretting my attempts to educate.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:03 am

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:04 am
Maybe. Aren't there more fertile topics and forums to troll?
Any forum where the "regulars" take themselves super seriously and feel they are enlightened with a religious fervor is fertile ground.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts » Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:20 am

Bluce wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:21 pm
But the question remains: Is he wily? :confused
Totally Wily
Image
A fool and your money are soon partners

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:25 am

firebirdparts wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:20 am
Bluce wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:21 pm
But the question remains: Is he wily? :confused
Totally Wily
Image
:mrgreen: :beer
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht » Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:39 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:35 am
as9 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:46 am
I’m convinced thelateinvestor is a troll. And a pretty good one.
I felt that way since the beginning and was super happy to see recent posts indicating they are finally understanding things. These recent posts above though have left me wondering and regretting my attempts to educate.
There is a certain saying about buying computers that is you keep waiting for the next upgrade you’ll never buy anything so you might as well just buy when you need it.

This ignores that there are actually bad times to buy new equipment.

If I were already in the market I’d just stay the course (which I am for my 401Ks) but due to other circumstances I’ve got a lot of cash. In effect I got “lucky” by being out of the market just before the last two days.

Doesn’t seem like a good time to jump in...it’s one thing to say “you can’t predict black swans so just have a risk posture you can live with”. It’s another to ignore the black swan when it just landed atop your portfolio and ask “well how do you know it’s really a black swan?”

Staying the course is great if you are still in the accumulation phase but folks nearing the end of that phase or retiring are looking at the looming sequence of return risk that everyone tries to account for but doesn’t really expect to happen to them.

I ignored 2008 but 12 years later and only maybe 10 years of accumulation left if I didn’t have cash I’d have rebalanced my portfolio to 50/50 from 70/30 sometime in late January. I simply don’t have the ability to make up for a black swan with the time remaining and I have enough to retire already.

Re-reading the 2008 threads we had folks bailing out pretty late. If you are going to bail out in a black swan then probably earlier is better and then DCA back in. That answers “how do you know when to get back in?”

You don’t...but hopefully it bottoms during your DCA re-injection period.

Likewise, the consensus is that a lump sum investment is generally better than DCAing into the market. But this isn’t a “generally” scenario...so I’m going to ignore the FOMO on a V shaped rally and do that because a U or L shaped scenario has higher downsides for me.

BW1985
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BW1985 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:10 am

I can tell you I'm glad I didn't ever try to time it and get out because I did that with only some dry powder savings that had accumulated (10%), left it in cash for 'the right time to buy'. It's still sitting in cash 5 years later. There's no magic time to drop it in, that's why it doesn't work. I"m so glad 401k is automatic DCA and I lump sum my Roth IRA at the beginning of every year.
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:26 am

BW1985 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:10 am
I can tell you I'm glad I didn't ever try to time it and get out because I did that with only some dry powder savings that had accumulated (10%), left it in cash for 'the right time to buy'. It's still sitting in cash 5 years later. There's no magic time to drop it in, that's why it doesn't work. I"m so glad 401k is automatic DCA and I lump sum my Roth IRA at the beginning of every year.
I did nothing during '07-'09, and was back to ground zero by the end of 2010.

I was talking to a friend probably sometime in '11 or '12, and he said he was still way down. But then, Merril Lynch was managing his portfolio and who knows what they did before, during, and after 2008, lol.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes

vipertom1970
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by vipertom1970 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:28 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:05 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 am
No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more.
And you know it will drop to -20%? What if today is the low point and the markets keeps going up for another 10 years? When will you re-enter the market? Never?
I'll reenter if I see a few GAIN days in a row maybe? Why does everyone always assume you can "never" get back in??
So did you sell everything and waiting to get back in ?

BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleMelon » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:33 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:05 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:03 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:01 am
No. I wait till it get's down to -20% and then buy back in at discount rates. If it continues to tank down to 30 or 50, so what I still bought at 20% discount and then I'll buy more.
And you know it will drop to -20%? What if today is the low point and the markets keeps going up for another 10 years? When will you re-enter the market? Never?
I'll reenter if I see a few GAIN days in a row maybe? Why does everyone always assume you can "never" get back in??
Entering after few gain days means you bought what you just sold but at a higher price. Keep selling when market tanks, and buying when you see few gain days, and you will end up broke. Simple math. You are selling low, then buying high, then selling low..etc
This is not a saving bank account where you can "exit" when the rate is low, and deposit when the rate is high. You buy assets every time you "entre" and you sell those assets every time you "exit"
Last edited by BogleMelon on Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:33 am

And, we're back above the 100 DMA! :sharebeer

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:46 am

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:33 am
And, we're back above the 100 DMA! :sharebeer
Y’all are posting in the wrong thread.

Stocks are soaring! (at least at the moment).
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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:57 am

Bluce wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:21 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:18 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:09 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:02 pm
oldzey wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:15 pm
No dead cat bounce today...

Image
Isn’t that the roadrunner? A canine not a feline.
The roadrunner is an avian. That there is wile e coyote I believe.
Oops, I meant the coyote from the Roadrunner cartoon. Sorry.
But the question remains: Is he wily? :confused
No, the question is "did he bounce??"
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EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:05 am

nigel_ht wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:39 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:35 am
as9 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:46 am
I’m convinced thelateinvestor is a troll. And a pretty good one.
I felt that way since the beginning and was super happy to see recent posts indicating they are finally understanding things. These recent posts above though have left me wondering and regretting my attempts to educate.
There is a certain saying about buying computers that is you keep waiting for the next upgrade you’ll never buy anything so you might as well just buy when you need it.

This ignores that there are actually bad times to buy new equipment.

If I were already in the market I’d just stay the course (which I am for my 401Ks) but due to other circumstances I’ve got a lot of cash. In effect I got “lucky” by being out of the market just before the last two days.

Doesn’t seem like a good time to jump in...it’s one thing to say “you can’t predict black swans so just have a risk posture you can live with”. It’s another to ignore the black swan when it just landed atop your portfolio and ask “well how do you know it’s really a black swan?”

Staying the course is great if you are still in the accumulation phase but folks nearing the end of that phase or retiring are looking at the looming sequence of return risk that everyone tries to account for but doesn’t really expect to happen to them.

I ignored 2008 but 12 years later and only maybe 10 years of accumulation left if I didn’t have cash I’d have rebalanced my portfolio to 50/50 from 70/30 sometime in late January. I simply don’t have the ability to make up for a black swan with the time remaining and I have enough to retire already.

Re-reading the 2008 threads we had folks bailing out pretty late. If you are going to bail out in a black swan then probably earlier is better and then DCA back in. That answers “how do you know when to get back in?”

You don’t...but hopefully it bottoms during your DCA re-injection period.

Likewise, the consensus is that a lump sum investment is generally better than DCAing into the market. But this isn’t a “generally” scenario...so I’m going to ignore the FOMO on a V shaped rally and do that because a U or L shaped scenario has higher downsides for me.
Staying the course is always important. It makes no difference if you are accumulating, about to retire or retired. The key is to adjust your asset allocation with your risk tolerance and not jump around based on a little market volatility.

Neither you nor I know if this is the end of the drop or there is more to come which is why you must always keep an asset allocation you are comfortable with and not adjust based on the mood of the market over just a few days.

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Portfolio7 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:06 am

Bluce wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:26 am
BW1985 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:10 am
I can tell you I'm glad I didn't ever try to time it and get out because I did that with only some dry powder savings that had accumulated (10%), left it in cash for 'the right time to buy'. It's still sitting in cash 5 years later. There's no magic time to drop it in, that's why it doesn't work. I"m so glad 401k is automatic DCA and I lump sum my Roth IRA at the beginning of every year.
I did nothing during '07-'09, and was back to ground zero by the end of 2010.

I was talking to a friend probably sometime in '11 or '12, and he said he was still way down. But then, Merril Lynch was managing his portfolio and who knows what they did before, during, and after 2008, lol.
We had money with Ameriprise outside our 401k, probably structured similarly (wrap account, front end loads). Never made money it seemed like, they sucked out too much in fees, and the funds really were terrible. I'm not sure those accounts ever actually increased, but we had moved most of it elsewhere well before 2008.

I won't talk about 2008 again except to say a transition to a new AA turned into market timing for us; we got lucky and recovered super fast - otherwise we'd also probably have recovered in about the same time.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:12 am

ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:57 am
Bluce wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:21 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:18 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:09 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:02 pm

Isn’t that the roadrunner? A canine not a feline.
The roadrunner is an avian. That there is wile e coyote I believe.
Oops, I meant the coyote from the Roadrunner cartoon. Sorry.
But the question remains: Is he wily? :confused
No, the question is "did he bounce??"
Didn’t the coyote always bounce? The question is: Is today a bounce?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:13 am

GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:12 am
The question is: Is today a bounce?
I'll tell you tomorrow.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:16 am

The market needs to drop more. Perhaps come back up middle of next week. Why? I get ESPP shares sold next Monday, so will be able to buy more.
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LiterallyIronic
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LiterallyIronic » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:20 am

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:16 am
The market needs to drop more. Perhaps come back up middle of next week. Why? I get ESPP shares sold next Monday, so will be able to buy more.
No, it needs to hold off until the 9th. Why? My annual bonus of ~10% of my salary will be paid out and I have payroll configured to send 100% of my bonus into my 100/0 401k.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nigel_ht » Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:26 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:05 am
nigel_ht wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:39 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:35 am
as9 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:46 am
I’m convinced thelateinvestor is a troll. And a pretty good one.
I felt that way since the beginning and was super happy to see recent posts indicating they are finally understanding things. These recent posts above though have left me wondering and regretting my attempts to educate.
There is a certain saying about buying computers that is you keep waiting for the next upgrade you’ll never buy anything so you might as well just buy when you need it.

This ignores that there are actually bad times to buy new equipment.

If I were already in the market I’d just stay the course (which I am for my 401Ks) but due to other circumstances I’ve got a lot of cash. In effect I got “lucky” by being out of the market just before the last two days.

Doesn’t seem like a good time to jump in...it’s one thing to say “you can’t predict black swans so just have a risk posture you can live with”. It’s another to ignore the black swan when it just landed atop your portfolio and ask “well how do you know it’s really a black swan?”

Staying the course is great if you are still in the accumulation phase but folks nearing the end of that phase or retiring are looking at the looming sequence of return risk that everyone tries to account for but doesn’t really expect to happen to them.

I ignored 2008 but 12 years later and only maybe 10 years of accumulation left if I didn’t have cash I’d have rebalanced my portfolio to 50/50 from 70/30 sometime in late January. I simply don’t have the ability to make up for a black swan with the time remaining and I have enough to retire already.

Re-reading the 2008 threads we had folks bailing out pretty late. If you are going to bail out in a black swan then probably earlier is better and then DCA back in. That answers “how do you know when to get back in?”

You don’t...but hopefully it bottoms during your DCA re-injection period.

Likewise, the consensus is that a lump sum investment is generally better than DCAing into the market. But this isn’t a “generally” scenario...so I’m going to ignore the FOMO on a V shaped rally and do that because a U or L shaped scenario has higher downsides for me.
Staying the course is always important. It makes no difference if you are accumulating, about to retire or retired. The key is to adjust your asset allocation with your risk tolerance and not jump around based on a little market volatility.

Neither you nor I know if this is the end of the drop or there is more to come which is why you must always keep an asset allocation you are comfortable with and not adjust based on the mood of the market over just a few days.
I don’t think that a pandemic that has already disrupted the supply chain and the CDC says is going to hit the US is simply a “little market volatility”.

The data that significantly wider economic impact is coming exists. While it’s true nobody knows for sure which way things will go but the probability of a pandemic black swan event is obviously much higher in Feb 2020 than Feb 2019.

What you choose to do with that information is up to you but it’s not just a “little market volatility over a few days”. And it does matter what your time horizon is when you figure out what your risk tolerance really is when given new data.

We have a nice little baby rally going right now. I think I’m going to readjust my 401Ks based on my new risk tolerance that is different than what it was in 2008. It’s been academic how much that tolerance has changed until now.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:13 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:12 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 10:57 am
Bluce wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:21 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:18 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:09 pm


The roadrunner is an avian. That there is wile e coyote I believe.
Oops, I meant the coyote from the Roadrunner cartoon. Sorry.
But the question remains: Is he wily? :confused
No, the question is "did he bounce??"
Didn’t the coyote always bounce? The question is: Is today a bounce?
Let me get back to you by tomorrow with that answer!
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:15 pm

What happened to the rally? Did Cramer say to buy?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:22 pm

squirm wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:15 pm
What happened to the rally? Did Cramer say to buy?
Oh my, I turn the station on Sirius radio when Mad Money hits the airwaves.
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:23 pm

Cra America! Boo Yaa!
John C. Bogle: Two Fund Portfolio - Total Stock & Total Bond - “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:52 pm

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:10 am
Stef wrote:
Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:41 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm
I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
That's true. Also a great test of discipline. Better to experience the first crash with 50k invested than 500k.

Europe keeps collapsing today btw.
I've "stayed the course" through 2 days of -3%. I think after today I might take a little off the table. Why keep losing money? This thing IS NOT going to get better any time soon I fear. (virus). At least until we get down to some "upturn" days to get back in. I have a feeling this is going to go to -20% and maybe beyond day after day.
It is easy to see why you are a "late" investor.

Suggestion: take your hands off the wheel (and keyboard) and do a lot more reading than posting here. If it doesn't sink in, then perhaps you will be better off simply buying CDs and taking what you can get from there. Good luck.

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