U.S. stocks in free fall

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CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:06 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 pm
for whatever it's worth -- S&P500 futures down 0.3%..

no free fall for too many days..
and predictably Small Cap Futures are down without even having had the run up... they just seem to go in one direction perpetually and that is DOWN! :oops: When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.
Have faith... Michael Burry is buying small caps!

rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rascott » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:18 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 pm
for whatever it's worth -- S&P500 futures down 0.3%..

no free fall for too many days..
and predictably Small Cap Futures are down without even having had the run up... they just seem to go in one direction perpetually and that is DOWN! :oops: When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.

4 years is a blip in macro-economic cycles. Small caps move to their own drummer.

ronno2018
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ronno2018 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:26 pm

rascott wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:18 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 pm
for whatever it's worth -- S&P500 futures down 0.3%..

no free fall for too many days..
and predictably Small Cap Futures are down without even having had the run up... they just seem to go in one direction perpetually and that is DOWN! :oops: When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.

4 years is a blip in macro-economic cycles. Small caps move to their own drummer.
Well it is a bit wacky, we are getting Tesla and FAANG over performing(?) -- where are the powerful growing small companies to invest in that give greater returns? Maybe the internet has changed everything? Maybe private equity has stolen what we small investors should be benefiting from?

rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rascott » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:45 pm

ronno2018 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:26 pm
rascott wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:18 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 pm
for whatever it's worth -- S&P500 futures down 0.3%..

no free fall for too many days..
and predictably Small Cap Futures are down without even having had the run up... they just seem to go in one direction perpetually and that is DOWN! :oops: When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.

4 years is a blip in macro-economic cycles. Small caps move to their own drummer.
Well it is a bit wacky, we are getting Tesla and FAANG over performing(?) -- where are the powerful growing small companies to invest in that give greater returns? Maybe the internet has changed everything? Maybe private equity has stolen what we small investors should be benefiting from?

No, it's pretty normal. We are in a late cycle expansion.... small caps typically outperform around recession cycles..... particularly coming out of a recession.... or when GDP growth accelerates. Small caps are much more cyclical. The overall economy is growing relatively slow... see the current bond market to confirm that. If GDP growth picks up, interest rates rise, e.t.c... small caps will probably outperform large growth. If we stay in this period of ultra low interest rates and 2% GDP growth, large cap growth will likely continue to outperform.

If you are going to tilt away from the market cap portfolio.... that's part of the deal.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:48 pm

rascott wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:45 pm
ronno2018 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:26 pm
rascott wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:18 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 pm
for whatever it's worth -- S&P500 futures down 0.3%..

no free fall for too many days..
and predictably Small Cap Futures are down without even having had the run up... they just seem to go in one direction perpetually and that is DOWN! :oops: When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.

4 years is a blip in macro-economic cycles. Small caps move to their own drummer.
Well it is a bit wacky, we are getting Tesla and FAANG over performing(?) -- where are the powerful growing small companies to invest in that give greater returns? Maybe the internet has changed everything? Maybe private equity has stolen what we small investors should be benefiting from?

No, it's pretty normal. We are in a late cycle expansion.... small caps typically outperform around recession cycles..... particularly coming out of a recession.... or when GDP growth accelerates. Small caps are much more cyclical. The overall economy is growing relatively slow... see the current bond market to confirm that. If GDP growth picks up, interest rates rise, e.t.c... small caps will probably outperform large growth. If we stay in this period of ultra low interest rates and 2% GDP growth, large cap growth will likely continue to outperform.

If you are going to tilt away from the market cap portfolio.... that's part of the deal.
I strongly agree with the underline sentence (my emphasis). If you aren't ready for a multi-decade ride with factors, don't start the journey. Jumping ship during a period of underperformance is literally the worst thing that you can possibly do.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rascott » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:12 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:48 pm
rascott wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:45 pm
ronno2018 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:26 pm
rascott wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:18 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm


and predictably Small Cap Futures are down without even having had the run up... they just seem to go in one direction perpetually and that is DOWN! :oops: When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.

4 years is a blip in macro-economic cycles. Small caps move to their own drummer.
Well it is a bit wacky, we are getting Tesla and FAANG over performing(?) -- where are the powerful growing small companies to invest in that give greater returns? Maybe the internet has changed everything? Maybe private equity has stolen what we small investors should be benefiting from?

No, it's pretty normal. We are in a late cycle expansion.... small caps typically outperform around recession cycles..... particularly coming out of a recession.... or when GDP growth accelerates. Small caps are much more cyclical. The overall economy is growing relatively slow... see the current bond market to confirm that. If GDP growth picks up, interest rates rise, e.t.c... small caps will probably outperform large growth. If we stay in this period of ultra low interest rates and 2% GDP growth, large cap growth will likely continue to outperform.

If you are going to tilt away from the market cap portfolio.... that's part of the deal.
I strongly agree with the underline sentence (my emphasis). If you aren't ready for a multi-decade ride with factors, don't start the journey. Jumping ship during a period of underperformance is literally the worst thing that you can possibly do.
Yes. I've been a 50/50 large/small investor for 18 years and counting.

I've thought of going to something extreme like large cap growth / small cap value only.....as over the years you see how incredibly divergent those sub-asset classes behave. And how they ride different economic cycles so differently.

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:18 am

guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 pm
for whatever it's worth -- S&P500 futures down 0.3%..

no free fall for too many days..
S&P500 futures down 0.8%
Reminder to myself "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a marketplace decline, of 50%, 2-3 times a century, you deserve the mediocre result you will get"-Charlie Munger

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:20 am

Looks like the market will take back what it gave us yesterday and then some.
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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:25 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm
.. When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.
That is why they call it a RISK premium.

Full disclosure: I ran a small but meaningful small / value tilt for 30+ years and dropped it in 2017 as I rejiggered our plan for retirement. The way I did it was only put money in the IRA that implemented the tilt and NEVER EVER traded it for 30 years, IOW, I did what Jack said, don't peek (I have the annual statements to prove it 8-) ) I also dropped from a 85/15 AA to 65/35 when I de-risked for phase 2 of our investing lives (pre and retirement). If you can't stand the risk, get out of the kitchen. :confused

Jags4186
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jags4186 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:42 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 pm
for whatever it's worth -- S&P500 futures down 0.3%..

no free fall for too many days..
and predictably Small Cap Futures are down without even having had the run up... they just seem to go in one direction perpetually and that is DOWN! :oops: When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.
A little melodramatic?

Small cap performance through 2019

5yr: 8.75%
3yr: 10.17%
1yr: 27.22%

From 2000-2009 Small Caps outperformed the SP500 by 5.39% year over year.

From 2010-2019 Small Caps underperformed the SP500 by 0.74% year over year.

For 20 years 2000-2019 Small Caps outperformed the SP500 by 2.49% year over year.

As great as the SP500 has been it has had some seriously dog years and decades...

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:24 am

Jags4186 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:42 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:00 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:41 pm
for whatever it's worth -- S&P500 futures down 0.3%..

no free fall for too many days..
and predictably Small Cap Futures are down without even having had the run up... they just seem to go in one direction perpetually and that is DOWN! :oops: When will this asset class finally get it's day in the sun? It's been something like 4 years of under performance now with the last 2 years being essentially non performant - i.e. close to zero.
A little melodramatic?

Small cap performance through 2019

5yr: 8.75%
3yr: 10.17%
1yr: 27.22%

From 2000-2009 Small Caps outperformed the SP500 by 5.39% year over year.

From 2010-2019 Small Caps underperformed the SP500 by 0.74% year over year.

For 20 years 2000-2019 Small Caps outperformed the SP500 by 2.49% year over year.

As great as the SP500 has been it has had some seriously dog years and decades...
+1. I for one am thrilled at the recent underperformance. It means the risk premium still exists and will hopefully scare people away/out, boosting the future premium. If small-caps just perpetually beat large in every bull, the gap would narrow until it no longer exists.

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:47 am

lostdog wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:20 am
Looks like the market will take back what it gave us yesterday and then some.
As of this minute the Curly family portfolio was +1.40% yesterday, and is minus 0.42% today. That is darned close to + 1% overall, even when I take a geometric average.

lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:53 am

:sharebeer
CurlyDave wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:47 am
lostdog wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:20 am
Looks like the market will take back what it gave us yesterday and then some.
As of this minute the Curly family portfolio was +1.40% yesterday, and is minus 0.42% today. That is darned close to + 1% overall, even when I take a geometric average.
Taxable: VTSAX and VTIAX || Tax Deferred: VTWAX

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:59 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:47 am
lostdog wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:20 am
Looks like the market will take back what it gave us yesterday and then some.
As of this minute the Curly family portfolio was +1.40% yesterday, and is minus 0.42% today. That is darned close to + 1% overall, even when I take a geometric average.
Annualize that, and you’ll have a pretty handsome return.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Independent George » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:12 am

All I know is tomorrow is payday, so I could use a little more freefall, followed by two weeks of soaring.

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:30 am

Stinky wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:59 am
...Annualize that, and you’ll have a pretty handsome return.
Ahh, reminds me of the 90s, working at megacorp.

There was an informal group of 5 or 6 investors who would sit together in the lunch room a few times a week. We didn't have a Bogleheads site back then and mostly invested in individual stocks. Whenever someone made a particularly good choice with his holdings he would recount his adventure and end with "Annualize that!".

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Portfolio7 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:20 pm

Looks like the market may yet turn positive today. It's trying anyways.

I can't decide if I'm nuetral or risk-on for this market. I'm within fractions of a percent of my IPS AA, so yeah, I'm nuetral... but I'm feeling the FOMO, like the market is ready to take off for another 15 percent this year, and I just want to buy before it does. Gotta talk to DW about upping our saving rate (once college gets decided in a couple months.) Put those market timing impulses to good long-term use.

At the very least, I have to get my younger teen's Roth IRA funded and matched asap (I match 100% of what he decides to put in.) It sucks that I can't do the same for my oldest, but he's on SSDI and he can only put money into his ABLE account (which he does) and I can't contribute. Gov't benefits are crazy intricate and the people who need them most are the least capable of navigating them.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:20 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:20 pm
Looks like the market may yet turn positive today. It's trying anyways.
Done.

Time to shut down this thread for the rest of the day at least. :P
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:28 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:20 pm
Portfolio7 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:20 pm
Looks like the market may yet turn positive today. It's trying anyways.
Done.

Time to shut down this thread for the rest of the day at least. :P
Jump over onto the soaring thread, which is a good thing.

Although "struggling to get off the runway" is closer than soaring at this moment.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:35 pm

Corona virus is the name of the game today. Bogleheads can only stay the course and stick with the asset allocation.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:52 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:20 pm
Portfolio7 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:20 pm
Looks like the market may yet turn positive today. It's trying anyways.
Done.

Time to shut down this thread for the rest of the day at least. :P
+1

You beat me to it.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Feb 13, 2020 4:54 pm

401k with just under 10% of my portfolio just got moved to cash yesterday and is now on it's way to Fidelity IRAs. You should all sell after-hours because tomorrow the free fall will truly begin.



Let's be honest... I'll be getting pinged on the other thread at-least until the check hits the account. :(

EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:16 pm

I think this thread has changed a bit over the last few months. At first it was created because the markets really went down. Then the discussion converted to something a bit more whimsical. Today it has leaned a bit into this neurotic monitoring of every little move the market makes. There is plenty of humor still here, but there is plenty of sentiment that I think may be a little unhealthy.

The market will rise and the market will fall. Hopefully up more than down in the long run. That’s the key. The long run. It matter little that the futures market at 6am is up 0.59%. Who cares?

I think it’s time to take a step back, relax, and stop watching what is happened every hour on the hour.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:29 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:16 pm
I think this thread has changed a bit over the last few months. At first it was created because the markets really went down. Then the discussion converted to something a bit more whimsical. Today it has leaned a bit into this neurotic monitoring of every little move the market makes. There is plenty of humor still here, but there is plenty of sentiment that I think may be a little unhealthy.

The market will rise and the market will fall. Hopefully up more than down in the long run. That’s the key. The long run. It matter little that the futures market at 6am is up 0.59%. Who cares?

I think it’s time to take a step back, relax, and stop watching what is happened every hour on the hour.
I think most of the conversation is just fun being had by investors with excellent sentiment and a healthy understanding of market movements. I could see it being destructive to the understanding of new investors reading the thread, especially if they have less robust sarcasm meters.

Will be interesting to see how the conversation is when we do get a proper free fall.

EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:31 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:29 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:16 pm
I think this thread has changed a bit over the last few months. At first it was created because the markets really went down. Then the discussion converted to something a bit more whimsical. Today it has leaned a bit into this neurotic monitoring of every little move the market makes. There is plenty of humor still here, but there is plenty of sentiment that I think may be a little unhealthy.

The market will rise and the market will fall. Hopefully up more than down in the long run. That’s the key. The long run. It matter little that the futures market at 6am is up 0.59%. Who cares?

I think it’s time to take a step back, relax, and stop watching what is happened every hour on the hour.
I think most of the conversation is just fun being had by investors with excellent sentiment and a healthy understanding of market movements. I could see it being destructive to the understanding of new investors reading the thread, especially if they have less robust sarcasm meters.

Will be interesting to see how the conversation is when we do get a proper free fall.
That is when this thread is so valuable. To help us stay off the ledge when the poop really hits the fan.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:58 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:31 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:29 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:16 pm
I think this thread has changed a bit over the last few months. At first it was created because the markets really went down. Then the discussion converted to something a bit more whimsical. Today it has leaned a bit into this neurotic monitoring of every little move the market makes. There is plenty of humor still here, but there is plenty of sentiment that I think may be a little unhealthy.

The market will rise and the market will fall. Hopefully up more than down in the long run. That’s the key. The long run. It matter little that the futures market at 6am is up 0.59%. Who cares?

I think it’s time to take a step back, relax, and stop watching what is happened every hour on the hour.
I think most of the conversation is just fun being had by investors with excellent sentiment and a healthy understanding of market movements. I could see it being destructive to the understanding of new investors reading the thread, especially if they have less robust sarcasm meters.

Will be interesting to see how the conversation is when we do get a proper free fall.
That is when this thread is so valuable. To help us stay off the ledge when the poop really hits the fan.
+1

@ EnjoyIt, If you think this thread is unsettling, you should check out the other thread. That one reminds me of all the old guys sitting in the lobby of the local Merrill Lynch office watching the ticker when I first started investing. Great people watching opportunity!

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:12 pm

EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:31 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:29 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:16 pm
I think this thread has changed a bit over the last few months. At first it was created because the markets really went down. Then the discussion converted to something a bit more whimsical. Today it has leaned a bit into this neurotic monitoring of every little move the market makes. There is plenty of humor still here, but there is plenty of sentiment that I think may be a little unhealthy.

The market will rise and the market will fall. Hopefully up more than down in the long run. That’s the key. The long run. It matter little that the futures market at 6am is up 0.59%. Who cares?

I think it’s time to take a step back, relax, and stop watching what is happened every hour on the hour.
I think most of the conversation is just fun being had by investors with excellent sentiment and a healthy understanding of market movements. I could see it being destructive to the understanding of new investors reading the thread, especially if they have less robust sarcasm meters.

Will be interesting to see how the conversation is when we do get a proper free fall.
That is when this thread is so valuable. To help us stay off the ledge when the poop really hits the fan.
Is that your expectation?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:33 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:12 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:31 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:29 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:16 pm
I think this thread has changed a bit over the last few months. At first it was created because the markets really went down. Then the discussion converted to something a bit more whimsical. Today it has leaned a bit into this neurotic monitoring of every little move the market makes. There is plenty of humor still here, but there is plenty of sentiment that I think may be a little unhealthy.

The market will rise and the market will fall. Hopefully up more than down in the long run. That’s the key. The long run. It matter little that the futures market at 6am is up 0.59%. Who cares?

I think it’s time to take a step back, relax, and stop watching what is happened every hour on the hour.
I think most of the conversation is just fun being had by investors with excellent sentiment and a healthy understanding of market movements. I could see it being destructive to the understanding of new investors reading the thread, especially if they have less robust sarcasm meters.

Will be interesting to see how the conversation is when we do get a proper free fall.
That is when this thread is so valuable. To help us stay off the ledge when the poop really hits the fan.
Is that your expectation?
I’m not sure I understand the question. Do I expect the markets to fall? Yes, yes I do. I just have no clue when it will happen and how much it will gain before it happens.

Do I expect that I will need help staying the course when poop hits the fan? I hope not, as I hope my AA is well suited for my risk tolerance. But if I do need help, I hope I can turn to this forum to help me stay the course.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:39 am

Independent George wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:12 am
All I know is tomorrow is payday, so I could use a little more freefall, followed by two weeks of soaring.
Just think how happy you'd be if it continued going down, allowing purchases at lower and lower prices! :twisted:

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:15 am

whodidntante wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:39 am
Independent George wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:12 am
All I know is tomorrow is payday, so I could use a little more freefall, followed by two weeks of soaring.
Just think how happy you'd be if it continued going down, allowing purchases at lower and lower prices! :twisted:
Yes! And how great a LONG, VICIOUS (90%!) bear would be and you could buy dirt cheap stock for years on end, and not have to bother watching the market for dips!

Three cheers for a thirty year brutal bear! :annoyed

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:47 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:12 pm
Is that your expectation?
Well, you take something like the fall of 2018. You don't want to chicken out in that situation. That was only a little over a year ago.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:00 am

EnjoyIt wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:33 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:12 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:31 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:29 pm
EnjoyIt wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:16 pm
I think this thread has changed a bit over the last few months. At first it was created because the markets really went down. Then the discussion converted to something a bit more whimsical. Today it has leaned a bit into this neurotic monitoring of every little move the market makes. There is plenty of humor still here, but there is plenty of sentiment that I think may be a little unhealthy.

The market will rise and the market will fall. Hopefully up more than down in the long run. That’s the key. The long run. It matter little that the futures market at 6am is up 0.59%. Who cares?

I think it’s time to take a step back, relax, and stop watching what is happened every hour on the hour.
I think most of the conversation is just fun being had by investors with excellent sentiment and a healthy understanding of market movements. I could see it being destructive to the understanding of new investors reading the thread, especially if they have less robust sarcasm meters.

Will be interesting to see how the conversation is when we do get a proper free fall.
That is when this thread is so valuable. To help us stay off the ledge when the poop really hits the fan.
Is that your expectation?
I’m not sure I understand the question. Do I expect the markets to fall? Yes, yes I do. I just have no clue when it will happen and how much it will gain before it happens.

Do I expect that I will need help staying the course when poop hits the fan? I hope not, as I hope my AA is well suited for my risk tolerance. But if I do need help, I hope I can turn to this forum to help me stay the course.
I was wondering if it was your expectation that this thread be a beacon of calming advise when the poop its the fan. I ask because that is not my expectation> My expectation is for people to do what they seem to do here daily which is talk their book.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:28 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:00 am
I was wondering if it was your expectation that this thread be a beacon of calming advise when the poop its the fan. I ask because that is not my expectation> My expectation is for people to do what they seem to do here daily which is talk their book.
In December OCT to DEC 2018, it was a good place for me to "do nothing instead of something" :beer We talked a lot and I did nothing except TLH in October and again in mid-December. Spent more time jawboning here than fretting on the finance.google.com or the dreaded marketwatch.com.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:46 am

retiringwhen wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:28 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:00 am
I was wondering if it was your expectation that this thread be a beacon of calming advise when the poop its the fan. I ask because that is not my expectation> My expectation is for people to do what they seem to do here daily which is talk their book.
In December OCT to DEC 2018, it was a good place for me to "do nothing instead of something" :beer We talked a lot and I did nothing except TLH in October and again in mid-December. Spent more time jawboning here than fretting on the finance.google.com or the dreaded marketwatch.com.
For me I was buying longer term CDs, which have served me well, selling any rallies. Then beginning Christmas Eve I started heavily buying for about 6 weeks. I remember posting about it but I don't remember it being the consensus pick as to do when things were plummeting on Christmas Eve.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:05 pm

Russell 2000 down 0.5%

SCV down as well..
Reminder to myself "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a marketplace decline, of 50%, 2-3 times a century, you deserve the mediocre result you will get"-Charlie Munger

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:02 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:05 pm
Russell 2000 down 0.5%

SCV down as well..
On the way to a real CAGR of ZERO for last 24 months...some bull market eh??

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:51 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:05 pm
Russell 2000 down 0.5%

SCV down as well..
Small Cap and Small Cap Value are down, stop the presses!
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Fri Feb 14, 2020 3:52 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:05 pm
Russell 2000 down 0.5%

SCV down as well..
So what else is new?
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:12 am

AAPL down 3.6% pre market.
Reminder to myself "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a marketplace decline, of 50%, 2-3 times a century, you deserve the mediocre result you will get"-Charlie Munger

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Chicken Little » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:34 am

This is actually a pretty good test of where we're at in terms of the world economy. To set the stage;

1. Every time the market moves up or down, the news connects it to whatever headlines they have that day. We know that's ridiculous.

2. Practically every day, somebody regurgitates that "everything is already priced in", implying some level of rationality, only to then forgive the market for "not knowing" when there's an unexpected move. Most of us know that's ridiculous too.

Now...

Apple just lowered guidance and Japan contracted 6.3%. Both are connecting those results with the virus, which is believable. So what we're faced with is an event, in it's early stages (?), that on face value could seemingly provide substantial headwinds for economic growth?

Here's the curveball...I'm not going to say we'll go into a recession. What I will say is that, objectively, with already extant underlying weakness, if this "legitimate" event doesn't result in a recession, that's the litmus test. If we cruise past this unaffected, then at some arbitrary cut-off, say for anybody over 50 years of age, this world economy with it's negative interest rates is as fake as fake can be. If you're over 50, then it is different this time. You can throw your prior understanding of economics out the window because the rules of the game have changed.

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:17 am

Chicken Little wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:34 am
This is actually a pretty good test of where we're at in terms of the world economy. To set the stage;

Now...

Apple just lowered guidance and Japan contracted 6.3%. Both are connecting those results with the virus, which is believable. So what we're faced with is an event, in it's early stages (?), that on face value could seemingly provide substantial headwinds for economic growth?

Here's the curveball...I'm not going to say we'll go into a recession. What I will say is that, objectively, with already extant underlying weakness, if this "legitimate" event doesn't result in a recession, that's the litmus test.
I was somewhat surprised by a statistic I’ve been hearing from the WSJ feeds. Of the 70k+ cases of corona worldwide, there only 700 or so are outside China. So 99% in China, 1% for the rest of the world. And of those cases outside China, more than one-half come from that cruise ship docked in Japan. There have been just three deaths outside China.

So, at least for now, the health system (at least outside of China) has worked pretty well in containing the spread of the virus. And China, while slow to initially respond, has taken a lot of steps.

I expect that corona will be a modest hit to economic growth for a quarter or two. But by summertime, I think that corona will be in the rear view mirror, and it will be on to the next “crisis” (or the Presidential election).
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:36 am

Chicken Little wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:34 am
1. Every time the market moves up or down, the news connects it to whatever headlines they have that day. We know that's ridiculous.
It is not ridiculous at all, it just looks odd to people with long-term horizons.

The EMH is predicated on the market responding to, taking stock of and repricing the market based on a constant flow of information. For people in the short-term horizon, 1ms to 8 hours, this stuff matters a lot. Personally, I am very thankful that there are day traders, institutions, hedge funds, etc. to constantly reprice the market so I can sleep at night knowing I have a liquid / reasonably efficient marketplace to store my family's nest egg.

Remember, the EMH doesn't say anything (in the strong or weak case) about the market being correct, only that it is constantly pricing in new information. Whether or not marketwatch.com is connecting the dots is frankly immaterial (I ignore their daily market summary articles, except sometimes to read as humor), what the market thinks is what matters, and that changes sometimes by the minute.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:42 am

Okay people let's get in our lines. "This is a great buying opportunity" folks on the left and "this is the beginning of the long awaited bear market" folks on the right. We can do this people, just alternate posts be civil and no jumping the line.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleMelon » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:44 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:42 am
Okay people let's get in our lines. "This is a great buying opportunity" folks on the left and "this is the beginning of the long awaited bear market" folks on the right. We can do this people, just alternate posts be civil and no jumping the line.
Excuse me, I am here for the "No one knows nothing", where should I go?
"One of the funny things about stock market, every time one is buying another is selling, and both think they are astute" - William Feather

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:45 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:42 am
Okay people let's get in our lines. "This is a great buying opportunity" folks on the left and "this is the beginning of the long awaited bear market" folks on the right. We can do this people, just alternate posts be civil and no jumping the line.
There's no line for us pathetic spectators??? :oops:

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:45 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:42 am
Okay people let's get in our lines. "This is a great buying opportunity" folks on the left and "this is the beginning of the long awaited bear market" folks on the right. We can do this people, just alternate posts be civil and no jumping the line.
I need a third line: Patiently waiting to hit my rebalance bands. Since our portfolio is over-weight US stocks by about 2.5% inside a 5% rebalance band, it is going to need to take a DEC 2018 drop to even start thinking about it. I might be so bold as to put my 401(K) back onto buying stocks though!

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Caduceus » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:50 am

I don't even know what you folks are getting excited about. As far as I know, the only sector that's experienced any decent drops recently is oil/gas. Everything else seems to be holding up quite well.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:53 am

Bluce wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:45 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:42 am
Okay people let's get in our lines. "This is a great buying opportunity" folks on the left and "this is the beginning of the long awaited bear market" folks on the right. We can do this people, just alternate posts be civil and no jumping the line.
There's no line for us pathetic spectators??? :oops:
In your case please post about Tesla being up 5+% pre-market.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:55 am

Caduceus wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:50 am
I don't even know what you folks are getting excited about. As far as I know, the only sector that's experienced any decent drops recently is oil/gas. Everything else seems to be holding up quite well.
Apples earnings guidance has only pushed the market futures down less than .5% even after a long weekend (It is the single largest stock in the SP500 and NASDAQ, it will move the market indices, this ain't no Pier1). Seems like COVID-19 has already been priced into the market..... (see EMH... :wink: )

BTW, we did a bit of market timing over the weekend, bought some very discounted furniture at Pier1 and got the pieces shipped BEFORE they filed Chapter 11 :sharebeer
Last edited by retiringwhen on Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:57 am

BogleMelon wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:44 am
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:42 am
Okay people let's get in our lines. "This is a great buying opportunity" folks on the left and "this is the beginning of the long awaited bear market" folks on the right. We can do this people, just alternate posts be civil and no jumping the line.
Excuse me, I am here for the "No one knows nothing", where should I go?
You just need to criticize anyone posting an opinion.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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