U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Bluce
Posts: 538
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 11:01 pm
Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:06 am

thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:32 am
Bluce wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:29 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:53 am
Bluce wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:22 am
thelateinvestor43 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:09 am


How many years did it take you to $100k? I've got $42k and hoping for 100 in 5 years. I'm 47 now, late starter unfortunately and can only put $800 month away right now.
Do you mean that's all you can afford to put away, or that is all you can put into a tax-deferred account?

If the latter, then I'd suggest opening a taxable account and putting whatever you can into that. That's what I did in the late '90s, and it is about 23% of my PF now (I'm at Schwab). I think I started out with maybe $150 per month, taken out of my checking account automatically, and upped it as I earned more money.

If you do that, be sure to figure it into your AA, so that both accounts together blend into whatever AA you have decided to go with.
I already have a taxable and a Roth at Fidelity. Yes, I'm putting the $800 into taxable monthly or weekly at 200. Yes, I've only got $42300 across my taxable and Roth and my aa is about 46/54. Then I have $30k in an ER , but I don't count that in my AA.
I'm assuming you're maxing the Roth before adding to taxable account . . . ?

What's an "ER"? Depending on what it is, why are you not counting it in your AA?
Yes I already maxed my Roth for this year. Now I'm adding to taxable. EF Emergency Fund. Not part of my AA, in my book.
Ok, you wrote "ER" so I'm thinking "Emergency Room" or whatever. But yes, shouldn't be part of AA.

LuigiLikesPizza
Posts: 434
Joined: Tue Jan 05, 2016 7:54 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LuigiLikesPizza » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:03 pm

In the late 90s, I worked for a megacorp in the IT space...constant speculation that even though we were big, other big companies wanted to buy us...our stock price just rode up and up and up. AOL had offices near us....the stories drifted over...people out of high school going to work in the AOL mail room and becoming millionaires in just a year.

In this environment, we were too distracted to work, we spent our days with Sharpies and a white board - tallying our dizzy crazy increasing net worth situations.

Sometimes our net worths would jump $100K or more by the end of the week. We literally got no work done - we were either at the white board, trolling Yahoo Finance or looking for IPO opportunities...even senior level directors..nobody got any work done! Companies were loathe to press the employees to work hard, because new employees were scarce and demanded big sign on bonuses, even for entry level jobs LOL

In this environment, we were too greedy to sell any of the stock - many jumped ship to go to start ups only to get laid off in short order when the venture capital dried up...crazy nuts. LOL - I remember something I said when the crash came: "I can't go back to just working for salary" lol

User avatar
Bluce
Posts: 538
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 11:01 pm
Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:24 pm

LuigiLikesPizza wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:03 pm
In the late 90s, I worked for a megacorp in the IT space...constant speculation that even though we were big, other big companies wanted to buy us...our stock price just rode up and up and up. AOL had offices near us....the stories drifted over...people out of high school going to work in the AOL mail room and becoming millionaires in just a year.

In this environment, we were too distracted to work, we spent our days with Sharpies and a white board - tallying our dizzy crazy increasing net worth situations.

Sometimes our net worths would jump $100K or more by the end of the week. We literally got no work done - we were either at the white board, trolling Yahoo Finance or looking for IPO opportunities...even senior level directors..nobody got any work done! Companies were loathe to press the employees to work hard, because new employees were scarce and demanded big sign on bonuses, even for entry level jobs LOL

In this environment, we were too greedy to sell any of the stock - many jumped ship to go to start ups only to get laid off in short order when the venture capital dried up...crazy nuts. LOL - I remember something I said when the crash came: "I can't go back to just working for salary" lol
Interesting.

I helped a friend with his online headhunting business in the late '90s, so I got exposure to what some of the jobs were paying. It was pretty crazy.

This is just my gut instinct, but apparently the demand for help was filled over time, because it seems those programmers etc. are a dime a dozen now. But I haven't really kept up, and I don't know anybody now who is directly involved in all of it.

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 13714
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:35 pm

Bluce wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:24 pm
because it seems those programmers etc. are a dime a dozen now. But I haven't really kept up, and I don't know anybody now who is directly involved in all of it.
They are not a dime a dozen now.

We have open positions that we cannot fill.
The J stands for Jay

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 13714
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:36 pm

I also have been traveling on a business trip this week and have been going to restaurants late at night (something I don't normally do).

They are packed. At 8:00 pm. On a Tuesday.

People are spending money.
The J stands for Jay

H. E. Pennypacker
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:06 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H. E. Pennypacker » Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:26 pm

anon3838 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:28 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:49 am
for those that were in the market late 90s how does the sentiment now compare with that time? Were investors caught off guard in 2000 when it crashed?
In 2000s, as a person who had already been in tech for many years, I found myself wondering why so many people (especially VCs and "day traders") were throwing money at the tech industry. It seemed like everyone was talking about the "hot new startup", but when I would drill into what problem the startup was solving, conversations usually turned to "how to present to investors".

(This is not speculation) I'm still in tech, and I don't get that sentiment this time around. But I'm just a teeny-tiny sampling, and I'm not implying one way or the other what will happen with the market.

Personally, I'm sticking with my IPS, which I wrote after reading many posts here from the 2008 era. :beer
You know better than me, and it could be that the huge valuation on tech stocks is totally justified. However, I wouldn't be surprised if, ten years from now, people look back and think it was absolutely not justified. A ton of the value of the FAANGs is tied up in "big data," and I don't really understand how that's valued.

Here's an interesting exercise: go to your Facebook account, if you have one, and check out the ad preferences tab that shows what Facebook considers to be your "interests." Mine are exclusively brands I have never heard of, people I absolutely despise (mostly politicians), and products I will never buy (one of mine is luxury cars; I've lived in a city all of my adult life and have never purchased any vehicle.

That "data" times approximately 2.5 billion monthly active users is Facebook's main property. Is it worth $600 billion? I don't know. I guess so. Maybe it's not, though. I'm not going to do anything about my doubts with my own personal investments, but I still do have some lingering doubts. If the market cap plummets on these companies, I'm not going to be shocked. I also won't be shocked it doesn't, though.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 15874
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:20 am

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:36 pm
I also have been traveling on a business trip this week and have been going to restaurants late at night (something I don't normally do).

They are packed. At 8:00 pm. On a Tuesday.

People are spending money.
For the last 2-3 years now, retailers of all sorts around us have been almost begging for more front-line employees.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 7250
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:16 am

AnalogKid22 wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:55 pm
mrspock wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:48 pm
Another great day! Next stop... Dow 30k and S&P 3400! Will we hit 4000 in 2020? Stay tuned!

*pulls out DOW 30k hat*
At this rate and this being an election year, DOW 30,000 certainly appears likely: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 9b5100439e

Less than 500pts away...
This market is pretty resilient. It could probably survive a nuke and still go up. If underground nukes count, it has.

CurlyDave
Posts: 1492
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave » Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:55 am

Well, this morning is small gains, but they are gains.

NASDAQ keeps on outperforming.

thelateinvestor43
Posts: 453
Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:02 am
Location: Westbrook, Maine

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by thelateinvestor43 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:57 am

I'm hoping for a 30% crash, so I can make get some sales.

User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 659
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:50 am

H. E. Pennypacker wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:26 pm
You know better than me, and it could be that the huge valuation on tech stocks is totally justified. However, I wouldn't be surprised if, ten years from now, people look back and think it was absolutely not justified. A ton of the value of the FAANGs is tied up in "big data," and I don't really understand how that's valued.
For some of these stocks, it's still 1999, but there's just been a great filtering. We're only discussing the ones that exist now.

In 1999, a lot of tech companies didn't have any plan to monetize and profit. Google, considering they don't offer a product, has figured that out. Is it overvalued? Yes, but it's profitable. In 1999, a lot of companies didn't even have revenue, let alone earnings. So if you look at these winners, they are susceptible to simply falling out of style, but they're not bankrupt. A second concern to me is that the market penetration is so enormous that growth might be a struggle for something like Facebook.

Netflix has a P/E of 100, so it looks like "the average" Nasdaq large cap in 1999. Personally I don't want too much exposure to these things, but owning USA mega caps certainly paid off in the past, and I"m a customer. FWIW.
A fool and your money are soon partners

User avatar
ReformedSpender
Posts: 433
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2018 1:24 pm
Location: Stone's Throw from Vanguard

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ReformedSpender » Sat Feb 15, 2020 6:26 am

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:36 pm
I also have been traveling on a business trip this week and have been going to restaurants late at night (something I don't normally do).

They are packed. At 8:00 pm. On a Tuesday.

People are spending money.
Maybe as a necessity; after working two jobs, the last thing one wants to do is cook...


I kid, I kid :beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 15874
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:11 am

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:36 pm
I also have been traveling on a business trip this week and have been going to restaurants late at night (something I don't normally do).

They are packed. At 8:00 pm. On a Tuesday.

People are spending money.
We went to our local Red Robin yesterday. We only ordered one round of food (i.e. no dessert or appetizers), and it took 80 minutes for us to get out of there. I spoke with the manager about how slow the service was compared to normal, and he said that they were hit with far more customers than they have been over the three prior Valentine's days.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 8345
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:00 am

^ FWIW, this Saint Valentines Day fell on the Friday leading into a federal holiday weekend (Presidents Day on Monday). Not surprised if it's a busy weekend.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 659
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:05 am

I was thinking yesterday about a list of the restaurants that you wouldn’t take your best girl to on Valentine’s Day (and thus wouldn’t be crowded) so I’ll mark Red Robin off my list. That was a gray area.
A fool and your money are soon partners

User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 3056
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:08 am

firebirdparts wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:05 am
I was thinking yesterday about a list of the restaurants that you wouldn’t take your best girl to on Valentine’s Day (and thus wouldn’t be crowded) so I’ll mark Red Robin off my list. That was a gray area.
In my area, Waffle House was offering “white tablecloth” service for Valentines Day.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 59408
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 5:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:10 am

Please stay on-topic.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 8345
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:16 am

According to this old (2011) article https://www.cnbc.com/id/41531754
Since 1928, the S&P 500 was up 55% of the time 1-month after Valentines Day
:moneybag :greedy :moneybag
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 13714
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:26 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:16 am
According to this old (2011) article https://www.cnbc.com/id/41531754
Since 1928, the S&P 500 was up 55% of the time 1-month after Valentines Day
:moneybag :greedy :moneybag
It works all the time 55% of the time.
The J stands for Jay

User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 3056
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:50 pm

JoMoney wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:16 am
According to this old (2011) article https://www.cnbc.com/id/41531754
Since 1928, the S&P 500 was up 55% of the time 1-month after Valentines Day
:moneybag :greedy :moneybag
Wonder how that compares to any other random 30-day period.

55% sounds a little above “average”. But not much.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 8345
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:19 pm

Casinos get rich on advantages of less than 55%
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

Lee_WSP
Posts: 1594
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:46 pm

Stinky wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:50 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:16 am
According to this old (2011) article https://www.cnbc.com/id/41531754
Since 1928, the S&P 500 was up 55% of the time 1-month after Valentines Day
:moneybag :greedy :moneybag
Wonder how that compares to any other random 30-day period.

55% sounds a little above “average”. But not much.
That vanguard article about DCA puts the odds of going up at 66%

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1565
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:42 pm

Buckle-up; as soon as the plague is over I see the S&P 500 going to infinity and beyond. :moneybag This is getting a bit ridiculous. :greedy

minimalistmarc
Posts: 534
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:00 pm

H. E. Pennypacker wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:26 pm
anon3838 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:28 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:49 am
for those that were in the market late 90s how does the sentiment now compare with that time? Were investors caught off guard in 2000 when it crashed?
In 2000s, as a person who had already been in tech for many years, I found myself wondering why so many people (especially VCs and "day traders") were throwing money at the tech industry. It seemed like everyone was talking about the "hot new startup", but when I would drill into what problem the startup was solving, conversations usually turned to "how to present to investors".

(This is not speculation) I'm still in tech, and I don't get that sentiment this time around. But I'm just a teeny-tiny sampling, and I'm not implying one way or the other what will happen with the market.

Personally, I'm sticking with my IPS, which I wrote after reading many posts here from the 2008 era. :beer
You know better than me, and it could be that the huge valuation on tech stocks is totally justified. However, I wouldn't be surprised if, ten years from now, people look back and think it was absolutely not justified. A ton of the value of the FAANGs is tied up in "big data," and I don't really understand how that's valued.

Here's an interesting exercise: go to your Facebook account, if you have one, and check out the ad preferences tab that shows what Facebook considers to be your "interests." Mine are exclusively brands I have never heard of, people I absolutely despise (mostly politicians), and products I will never buy (one of mine is luxury cars; I've lived in a city all of my adult life and have never purchased any vehicle.

That "data" times approximately 2.5 billion monthly active users is Facebook's main property. Is it worth $600 billion? I don't know. I guess so. Maybe it's not, though. I'm not going to do anything about my doubts with my own personal investments, but I still do have some lingering doubts. If the market cap plummets on these companies, I'm not going to be shocked. I also won't be shocked it doesn't, though.
My understanding is that advertising works on you subliminally sometimes over years. Then one day, almost inexplicably, you decided to buy a Tesla, and you don’t even know that advertising has influenced you. Nobody is inpenetrable, it’s biology

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 15874
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:37 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:00 pm
H. E. Pennypacker wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:26 pm
anon3838 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:28 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:49 am
for those that were in the market late 90s how does the sentiment now compare with that time? Were investors caught off guard in 2000 when it crashed?
In 2000s, as a person who had already been in tech for many years, I found myself wondering why so many people (especially VCs and "day traders") were throwing money at the tech industry. It seemed like everyone was talking about the "hot new startup", but when I would drill into what problem the startup was solving, conversations usually turned to "how to present to investors".

(This is not speculation) I'm still in tech, and I don't get that sentiment this time around. But I'm just a teeny-tiny sampling, and I'm not implying one way or the other what will happen with the market.

Personally, I'm sticking with my IPS, which I wrote after reading many posts here from the 2008 era. :beer
You know better than me, and it could be that the huge valuation on tech stocks is totally justified. However, I wouldn't be surprised if, ten years from now, people look back and think it was absolutely not justified. A ton of the value of the FAANGs is tied up in "big data," and I don't really understand how that's valued.

Here's an interesting exercise: go to your Facebook account, if you have one, and check out the ad preferences tab that shows what Facebook considers to be your "interests." Mine are exclusively brands I have never heard of, people I absolutely despise (mostly politicians), and products I will never buy (one of mine is luxury cars; I've lived in a city all of my adult life and have never purchased any vehicle.

That "data" times approximately 2.5 billion monthly active users is Facebook's main property. Is it worth $600 billion? I don't know. I guess so. Maybe it's not, though. I'm not going to do anything about my doubts with my own personal investments, but I still do have some lingering doubts. If the market cap plummets on these companies, I'm not going to be shocked. I also won't be shocked it doesn't, though.
My understanding is that advertising works on you subliminally sometimes over years. Then one day, almost inexplicably, you decided to buy a Tesla, and you don’t even know that advertising has influenced you. Nobody is inpenetrable, it’s biology
Subliminal messaging was found to be a complete hoax. The whole movie theater with 'popcorn' flashed on the screen story was entirely fictional and never happened at all. It was a publicity stunt. Academic research has debunked the concept many times. But many latched on to the idea because it offers an out to their own poor choices (e.g. 'It wasn't my fault! They made me buy it!').

To be clear, the idea of subliminal messaging is that stimuli that are impossible for humans to detect even if they are trying to (e.g. too weak, too faint, too fast) can somehow 'force' them to behave in a way consistent with the message being conveyed. That's false. However, a slightly similar concept known as the mere exposure effect is very real. It says that stimuli that individuals are exposed can have an impact on them even if the individuals do not pay attention whatsoever to the stimuli. But these stimuli are not subliminal (i.e. they are not below the threshold of detection if the individuals wanted to pay attention to the stimuli).

So while it's not necessary for people to pay attention to something for it to affect them, that 'something' must occur with enough intensity that they could pay attention to it if they chose to.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

minimalistmarc
Posts: 534
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minimalistmarc » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:40 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:37 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:00 pm
H. E. Pennypacker wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 11:26 pm
anon3838 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:28 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:49 am
for those that were in the market late 90s how does the sentiment now compare with that time? Were investors caught off guard in 2000 when it crashed?
In 2000s, as a person who had already been in tech for many years, I found myself wondering why so many people (especially VCs and "day traders") were throwing money at the tech industry. It seemed like everyone was talking about the "hot new startup", but when I would drill into what problem the startup was solving, conversations usually turned to "how to present to investors".

(This is not speculation) I'm still in tech, and I don't get that sentiment this time around. But I'm just a teeny-tiny sampling, and I'm not implying one way or the other what will happen with the market.

Personally, I'm sticking with my IPS, which I wrote after reading many posts here from the 2008 era. :beer
You know better than me, and it could be that the huge valuation on tech stocks is totally justified. However, I wouldn't be surprised if, ten years from now, people look back and think it was absolutely not justified. A ton of the value of the FAANGs is tied up in "big data," and I don't really understand how that's valued.

Here's an interesting exercise: go to your Facebook account, if you have one, and check out the ad preferences tab that shows what Facebook considers to be your "interests." Mine are exclusively brands I have never heard of, people I absolutely despise (mostly politicians), and products I will never buy (one of mine is luxury cars; I've lived in a city all of my adult life and have never purchased any vehicle.

That "data" times approximately 2.5 billion monthly active users is Facebook's main property. Is it worth $600 billion? I don't know. I guess so. Maybe it's not, though. I'm not going to do anything about my doubts with my own personal investments, but I still do have some lingering doubts. If the market cap plummets on these companies, I'm not going to be shocked. I also won't be shocked it doesn't, though.
My understanding is that advertising works on you subliminally sometimes over years. Then one day, almost inexplicably, you decided to buy a Tesla, and you don’t even know that advertising has influenced you. Nobody is inpenetrable, it’s biology
Subliminal messaging was found to be a complete hoax. The whole movie theater with 'popcorn' flashed on the screen story was entirely fictional and never happened at all. It was a publicity stunt. Academic research has debunked the concept many times. But many latched on to the idea because it offers an out to their own poor choices (e.g. 'It wasn't my fault! They made me buy it!').

To be clear, the idea of subliminal messaging is that stimuli that are impossible for humans to detect even if they are trying to (e.g. too weak, too faint, too fast) can somehow 'force' them to behave in a way consistent with the message being conveyed. That's false. However, a slightly similar concept known as the mere exposure effect is very real. It says that stimuli that individuals are exposed can have an impact on them even if the individuals do not pay attention whatsoever to the stimuli. But these stimuli are not subliminal (i.e. they are not below the threshold of detection if the individuals wanted to pay attention to the stimuli).

So while it's not necessary for people to pay attention to something for it to affect them, that 'something' must occur with enough intensity that they could pay attention to it if they chose to.
Yea, I used subliminal wrongly.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 15874
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:41 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:46 pm
Stinky wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:50 pm
JoMoney wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:16 am
According to this old (2011) article https://www.cnbc.com/id/41531754
Since 1928, the S&P 500 was up 55% of the time 1-month after Valentines Day
:moneybag :greedy :moneybag
Wonder how that compares to any other random 30-day period.

55% sounds a little above “average”. But not much.
That vanguard article about DCA puts the odds of going up at 66%
That was about what I thought it was. So 55% odds of going up would be well under the historic average, where stocks go up about 2/3 of the time or slightly better.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 15874
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:44 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:40 pm
Yea, I used subliminal wrongly.
It sounds then like you meant that advertising messages have a cumulative effect on individuals, and that's certainly true.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 17810
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:13 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:42 pm
Buckle-up; as soon as the plague is over I see the S&P 500 going to infinity and beyond. :moneybag This is getting a bit ridiculous. :greedy
It very well could! No one has that crystal ball for sure.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success." || Buy Total Stock until it hurts. Then find a way to buy even more!

User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 6707
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:35 am

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:42 pm
Buckle-up; as soon as the plague is over I see the S&P 500 going to infinity and beyond. :moneybag This is getting a bit ridiculous. :greedy
So you have moved to 100/0?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

Post Reply