HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
MotoTrojan
Posts: 9269
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:01 am

get_g0ing wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:58 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:20 am
get_g0ing wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:54 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:52 am
Given that TQQQ has had about 46.6% standard deviation since inception,
Hi Moto,

Can you explain a bit more what this means please?

Thanks.
The volatility of TQQQ in its lifetime is just barely higher than the poster’s 40% target volatility which was intriguing. Usually it would be lower so your average allocation to the 3x equity isn’t nearly 100%.
Sorry, I meant what does "46.6% standard deviation" mean?
The standard deviation of its returns was 46.6% since it came out. That is the measure of its volatility.

get_g0ing
Posts: 636
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:09 am

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by get_g0ing » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:53 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:01 am
get_g0ing wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:58 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:20 am
get_g0ing wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:54 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:52 am
Given that TQQQ has had about 46.6% standard deviation since inception,
Hi Moto,

Can you explain a bit more what this means please?

Thanks.
The volatility of TQQQ in its lifetime is just barely higher than the poster’s 40% target volatility which was intriguing. Usually it would be lower so your average allocation to the 3x equity isn’t nearly 100%.
Sorry, I meant what does "46.6% standard deviation" mean?
The standard deviation of its returns was 46.6% since it came out. That is the measure of its volatility.
Apologies for my ignorance, but that's what I wanted to understand: what does standard deviation of returns mean?
I understand the standard deviation concept for a normally distributed variable like height, where about 68% of the values would lie within 1 SD of the mean (on either side). Is what you mentioned similar to this?

Thanks.

MotoTrojan
Posts: 9269
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:57 am

get_g0ing wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 11:53 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:01 am
get_g0ing wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:58 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:20 am
get_g0ing wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 7:54 am


Hi Moto,

Can you explain a bit more what this means please?

Thanks.
The volatility of TQQQ in its lifetime is just barely higher than the poster’s 40% target volatility which was intriguing. Usually it would be lower so your average allocation to the 3x equity isn’t nearly 100%.
Sorry, I meant what does "46.6% standard deviation" mean?
The standard deviation of its returns was 46.6% since it came out. That is the measure of its volatility.
Apologies for my ignorance, but that's what I wanted to understand: what does standard deviation of returns mean?
I understand the standard deviation concept for a normally distributed variable like height, where about 68% of the values would lie within 1 SD of the mean (on either side). Is what you mentioned similar to this?

Thanks.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/st ... iation.asp

Good stuff to understand as it’s key to the risk parity concept the original excellent adventure leveraged (pun intended).

MoneyMarathon
Posts: 967
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 3:38 am

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MoneyMarathon » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:04 pm

schismal wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:40 am
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:10 am
The biggest change is that I chickened out and dropped MCDFX (an active China fund) this week.
Curious what prompted this change. No longer interested in EM? I've liked both MCDFX and CXSE.
When I entered the position, it was going to be a temporary place to park money while I accumulate a bit to be able to buy another chunk of PSLDX in the 401k all at once, given the $50 transaction cost on buying PSLDX.

I don't usually get spooked by news and current events, but this time it was hard for me to ignore (not claiming it was the best move... if it were easy to tell the impact of the news on the markets, it would already be baked in to the prices).

I am more underweight international now than I want to be, so I will be adding more in taxable. I'm interested in tax-efficient investments for that.

MotoTrojan
Posts: 9269
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:15 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:04 pm
schismal wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:40 am
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:10 am
The biggest change is that I chickened out and dropped MCDFX (an active China fund) this week.
Curious what prompted this change. No longer interested in EM? I've liked both MCDFX and CXSE.
When I entered the position, it was going to be a temporary place to park money while I accumulate a bit to be able to buy another chunk of PSLDX in the 401k all at once, given the $50 transaction cost on buying PSLDX.

I don't usually get spooked by news and current events, but this time it was hard for me to ignore (not claiming it was the best move... if it were easy to tell the impact of the news on the markets, it would already be baked in to the prices).

I am more underweight international now than I want to be, so I will be adding more in taxable. I'm interested in tax-efficient investments for that.
Interesting to use such a different fund as a stop-gap accumulator. I would think a standard S&P500 holding would be a more efficient home for funds intended to go in to PSLDX.

MoneyMarathon
Posts: 967
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 3:38 am

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MoneyMarathon » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:21 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:15 pm
Interesting to use such a different fund as a stop-gap accumulator. I would think a standard S&P500 holding would be a more efficient home for funds intended to go in to PSLDX.
That would make sense. The idea was to buy international with new funds at the same time I sold it. This will happen around April now.

MotoTrojan
Posts: 9269
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:26 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:21 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:15 pm
Interesting to use such a different fund as a stop-gap accumulator. I would think a standard S&P500 holding would be a more efficient home for funds intended to go in to PSLDX.
That would make sense. The idea was to buy international with new funds at the same time I sold it. This will happen around April now.
That makes sense. Will be interested to see what International fund you go with. I've made my new core ex-US fund FNDC.

uberaeth
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by uberaeth » Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:35 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:26 pm
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:21 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:15 pm
Interesting to use such a different fund as a stop-gap accumulator. I would think a standard S&P500 holding would be a more efficient home for funds intended to go in to PSLDX.
That would make sense. The idea was to buy international with new funds at the same time I sold it. This will happen around April now.
That makes sense. Will be interested to see what International fund you go with. I've made my new core ex-US fund FNDC.
Do you mind me asking why you chose FNDC instead of something like VXUS?

MotoTrojan
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:57 pm

uberaeth wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:35 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:26 pm
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:21 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:15 pm
Interesting to use such a different fund as a stop-gap accumulator. I would think a standard S&P500 holding would be a more efficient home for funds intended to go in to PSLDX.
That would make sense. The idea was to buy international with new funds at the same time I sold it. This will happen around April now.
That makes sense. Will be interested to see what International fund you go with. I've made my new core ex-US fund FNDC.
Do you mind me asking why you chose FNDC instead of something like VXUS?
I wanted small-value exposure for increased diversification and expected return. I like the fundamental index approach in general. Given that it’s my core ex-US holding (30% of equity) the larger market cap relative to deeper small-cap offerings also works out A-okay.

wije
Posts: 188
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by wije » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:10 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:10 am
I'd like to add positions to MTUM (momentum in US stocks) and EFAV (min vol developed international) in taxable, especially EFAV. Yes, if you haven't noticed a pattern, I'm basically just following HedgeFundie's favorite picks and choosing from them. He should publish a newsletter. :beer
I'm curious why you haven't added utilities like Hedgefundie did, given their very low correlation with the US market (I really don't understand how US utilities have lower correlations than international does!). In addition to PSLDX as my core holding, I'm considering a satellite allocation to TQQQ (balanced with EDV) instead of MTUM.

I was considering opening a position in MCDFX, but I also chickened out. On portfoliovisualizer, a 100% PSLDX allocation had a slightly lower correlation to the US market than 80/20 PSLDX/MCDFX!

moptop
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by moptop » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:38 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:04 pm
schismal wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:40 am
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:10 am
The biggest change is that I chickened out and dropped MCDFX (an active China fund) this week.
Curious what prompted this change. No longer interested in EM? I've liked both MCDFX and CXSE.
When I entered the position, it was going to be a temporary place to park money while I accumulate a bit to be able to buy another chunk of PSLDX in the 401k all at once, given the $50 transaction cost on buying PSLDX.

I don't usually get spooked by news and current events, but this time it was hard for me to ignore (not claiming it was the best move... if it were easy to tell the impact of the news on the markets, it would already be baked in to the prices).

I am more underweight international now than I want to be, so I will be adding more in taxable. I'm interested in tax-efficient investments for that.

What % of your portfolio do you want to be in PSLDX?

I'm pumped bc I just got my 401k to add PSLDX to our fund lineup so I'm not limited to my roth accounts.

langlands
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by langlands » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:51 pm

wije wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:10 pm
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:10 am
I'd like to add positions to MTUM (momentum in US stocks) and EFAV (min vol developed international) in taxable, especially EFAV. Yes, if you haven't noticed a pattern, I'm basically just following HedgeFundie's favorite picks and choosing from them. He should publish a newsletter. :beer
I'm curious why you haven't added utilities like Hedgefundie did, given their very low correlation with the US market (I really don't understand how US utilities have lower correlations than international does!). In addition to PSLDX as my core holding, I'm considering a satellite allocation to TQQQ (balanced with EDV) instead of MTUM.

I was considering opening a position in MCDFX, but I also chickened out. On portfoliovisualizer, a 100% PSLDX allocation had a slightly lower correlation to the US market than 80/20 PSLDX/MCDFX!
I think HEDGEFUNDIE mostly added utilities because he's employed in tech, so it helped diversify his particular income stream (mostly vesting RSUs I assume). So it was a decision highly tied to his particular job situation.

If you believe the basic premise of CAPM, utilities have lower correlation with US market because they have a beta less than 1. They are already owned in appropriate portion by total stock index and do not need any particular tilt. There's no reason to overweight utilities unless you think that sector has alpha- i.e. you have particular insight that the utilities sector will outperform. If you like utilities because they are lower risk, you should simply adjust your stock/bond ratio to get a lower risk profile. If you like utilities for its various factor tilts, you should get direct exposure to the appropriate factors, e.g. min vol., value etc.

MoneyMarathon
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MoneyMarathon » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:01 pm

moptop wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:38 pm
What % of your portfolio do you want to be in PSLDX?
As much as I can get. I want all my tax-advantaged space going to PSLDX, with international or other US funds in taxable. I think 70% US / 30% international is reasonable.

MoneyMarathon
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MoneyMarathon » Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:05 pm

langlands wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:51 pm
wije wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:10 pm
I'm curious why you haven't added utilities like Hedgefundie did, given their very low correlation with the US market (I really don't understand how US utilities have lower correlations than international does!).
I think HEDGEFUNDIE mostly added utilities because he's employed in tech, so it helped diversify his particular income stream (mostly vesting RSUs I assume). So it was a decision highly tied to his particular job situation.
I have a similar job situation.

I understand the low correlation of utilities and that much makes sense to me.

I don't understand why their performance has been so good historically / recently and why that will persist.

If I understood that better, I might add them.

schismal
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by schismal » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:17 am

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:04 pm
When I entered the position, it was going to be a temporary place to park money while I accumulate a bit to be able to buy another chunk of PSLDX in the 401k all at once, given the $50 transaction cost on buying PSLDX.

I don't usually get spooked by news and current events, but this time it was hard for me to ignore (not claiming it was the best move... if it were easy to tell the impact of the news on the markets, it would already be baked in to the prices).

I am more underweight international now than I want to be, so I will be adding more in taxable. I'm interested in tax-efficient investments for that.
Makes sense.

I'm a fan of small cap international, so DLS is my principle ex-US holding (surprisingly tax efficient). I'm pretty unimpressed with EM in total, but I do hold a small allocation of China-specific funds as my EM bet (less tax efficient). Very non-Boglehead, I know. ;) I'm also curious what international fund(s) you end up picking.

Maker
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Maker » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:38 am

Thank you to all those that replied to my earlier comment, I appreciate your point of views.

Dear Ls2g09, is your focus on spread betting mainly for tax-related reasons? If I'm not mistaken, spread betting is tax free in the U.K., but I agree on the counter-party risk, which I don't like at all (as it is risk without reward).

Dear Nicolas Perrault, I do not have access to US funds as an EU citizen. The only funds I have access to are 2x leveraged from Amundi and XTrackers on MSCI USA (as another user said), or 3x leveraged ETNs from WisdomTree (thus with additional counter party risk). Note that, as I said, I have read most (if not all) of these two threads, and find it quite convincing. My main aim with the previous post was to gauge the european participation in this strategy and their perceived risks. Based on the responses so far, it seems that for those of us who do not have access to US funds there is no way to implement this strategy without either significantly increased risks (counterparty-risk) or limits to the implementation (such as the user who is using 2x leveraged funds and shorter term bonds).

With regards to your suggestion of using BNDX for simulation purposes, portfolio visualizer limits the backtest to 2013, which is unsufficient if we wish to find out how a leveraged globally diversified strategy (akin to 165% VT, 135% BNDW, -200% CASH) would work during drawdown (such as the 2008-9 bear market or the even worse when it comes to leveraged strategies sixties).

Another risk which may deserve further discussion is the liquidity risk for leveraged ETFs -- this point was brought up in Michael Burry's interview in the infamous passive investing bubble. While I disagree about most of his points, especially with regards to globally diversified ETFs with physical replication, his note about the liquidity issue (with a focus on the derivatives leveraged ETFs used in HEDGEFUNDIE's strategy) is worth exploring. After all, most (if not all) the leveraged ETFs were created towards the end of the 2008-9 bear market, so we haven't really seen how the unwinding of derivatives during such time happens, and what are the consequences on the fund's value.

In a interview, he said, specifically referring to ETFs that track the Russel 2000: "Potentially making it worse will be the impossibility of unwinding the derivatives and naked buy/sell strategies used to help so many of these funds pseudo-match flows and prices each and every day. This fundamental concept is the same one that resulted in the market meltdowns in 2008."

Do you think this doesn't apply to SPY, as its companies are much more liquid, or should this additional risk be considered? I would be interested in finding data about SPY derivatives liquidity during bear markets, but a quick google search does not bring up any.

As always, I'm here to (mostly) learn, so keep this in mind.
Thanks!

LittleBitMore
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by LittleBitMore » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:06 am

Has anyone figured out Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program?

UPRO & TMF seem like exactly the kind of shares that would be lent out which should help cut the cost of the annual fees and possibly provide some real return during the next crisis. I know Interactive Brokers has a similar offering that pays 50% of the interest but I'd really like to not need to transfer money *again* for this adventure.

MotoTrojan
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:28 am

schismal wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:17 am
MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:04 pm
When I entered the position, it was going to be a temporary place to park money while I accumulate a bit to be able to buy another chunk of PSLDX in the 401k all at once, given the $50 transaction cost on buying PSLDX.

I don't usually get spooked by news and current events, but this time it was hard for me to ignore (not claiming it was the best move... if it were easy to tell the impact of the news on the markets, it would already be baked in to the prices).

I am more underweight international now than I want to be, so I will be adding more in taxable. I'm interested in tax-efficient investments for that.
Makes sense.

I'm a fan of small cap international, so DLS is my principle ex-US holding (surprisingly tax efficient). I'm pretty unimpressed with EM in total, but I do hold a small allocation of China-specific funds as my EM bet (less tax efficient). Very non-Boglehead, I know. ;) I'm also curious what international fund(s) you end up picking.
Nice to see someone else with a strong ex-US small value tilt! Mind sharing your full AA? My taxable is all in US currently so I haven’t paid a ton of attention to tax-efficiency for the international side.

shoehead
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by shoehead » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:46 am

wije wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:10 pm
I'm curious why you haven't added utilities like Hedgefundie did, given their very low correlation with the US market (I really don't understand how US utilities have lower correlations than international does!).
Interesting, I didn’t know he did that. Do you have the specific post where Hedgefundie talks about adding US utilities? Would like to learn more and backtest.

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privatefarmer
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by privatefarmer » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:09 am

LittleBitMore wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:06 am
Has anyone figured out Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program?

UPRO & TMF seem like exactly the kind of shares that would be lent out which should help cut the cost of the annual fees and possibly provide some real return during the next crisis. I know Interactive Brokers has a similar offering that pays 50% of the interest but I'd really like to not need to transfer money *again* for this adventure.

This is very interesting.... anyone have experience with it? Does fidelity allow trading of LETFs? I use IB now but would love to switch to fidelity if I can get comparable income via security lending

schismal
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by schismal » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:11 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:28 am
Nice to see someone else with a strong ex-US small value tilt! Mind sharing your full AA? My taxable is all in US currently so I haven’t paid a ton of attention to tax-efficiency for the international side.
50% US large (VTSAX/PSLDX/NTSX)
20% US SCV (VIOV/PSSIX)
20% Intl small (DLS/DFISX)
10% China/EM (MCDFX/CXSE)

Some fund choices are limited by my 403b.
Last edited by schismal on Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.

kim.gold
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by kim.gold » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:20 am

LittleBitMore wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:06 am
Has anyone figured out Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program?

UPRO & TMF seem like exactly the kind of shares that would be lent out which should help cut the cost of the annual fees and possibly provide some real return during the next crisis. I know Interactive Brokers has a similar offering that pays 50% of the interest but I'd really like to not need to transfer money *again* for this adventure.
I cannot speak about Fidelity but I am enrolled in IBKR Stock Yield Enhancement Program for couple of years. Do not expect much. With a quarter million portfolio, lent out about 50% every mount, on average I am getting about $2 a month. Jan was $0.69.


I do not hold UPRO / TMF.

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danielc
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by danielc » Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:49 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:39 pm
Njm8845 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:35 pm
Forgive the basic question, but I always thought leveraged etfs were dangerous because they only seek to return a multiple DAILY.

My understanding is that they don’t do well long term, especially when there’s excess volatility.
This is addressed in the OP of Part I. MoneyMarathon also did an awesome job of showing how rebalancing against an imperfectly correlated asset reduces the volatility decay.
Hey. I've spent the last three weeks reading through the entire thread. I'm currently on page 12 or Part II. Can you point me to the post where MoneyMarathon shows how rebalacing reduces volatility decay? I think I missed that post. Thanks!

MoneyMarathon
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MoneyMarathon » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:03 pm

shoehead wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:46 am
wije wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:10 pm
I'm curious why you haven't added utilities like Hedgefundie did, given their very low correlation with the US market (I really don't understand how US utilities have lower correlations than international does!).
Interesting, I didn’t know he did that. Do you have the specific post where Hedgefundie talks about adding US utilities? Would like to learn more and backtest.
In this post, he goes through his non-adventure funds:

viewtopic.php?t=289979#p4748952

EDV
PSLDX
MTUM
POAGX
FUTY (Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF)
MCDFX
EFAV

This is a thread on utilities:

viewtopic.php?t=275899

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Ramjet
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Ramjet » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:10 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:03 pm
If I recall right you're invested in PSLDX, Total Intl., and MCDFX

Curious if Coronavirus has altered your opinions on MCDFX

MoneyMarathon
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MoneyMarathon » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:22 pm

Ramjet wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:10 pm
If I recall right you're invested in PSLDX, Total Intl., and MCDFX

Curious if Coronavirus has altered your opinions on MCDFX
Yes, I moved the money in MCDFX into PSLDX.

MoneyMarathon
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MoneyMarathon » Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:36 pm

danielc wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:49 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:39 pm
Njm8845 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:35 pm
Forgive the basic question, but I always thought leveraged etfs were dangerous because they only seek to return a multiple DAILY.

My understanding is that they don’t do well long term, especially when there’s excess volatility.
This is addressed in the OP of Part I. MoneyMarathon also did an awesome job of showing how rebalancing against an imperfectly correlated asset reduces the volatility decay.
Hey. I've spent the last three weeks reading through the entire thread. I'm currently on page 12 or Part II. Can you point me to the post where MoneyMarathon shows how rebalacing reduces volatility decay? I think I missed that post. Thanks!
Here's a crunchy post:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192&p=4700729#p4700539

Kevin M give his summary here:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192&p=4702598#p4701866

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danielc
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by danielc » Thu Feb 13, 2020 5:06 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:36 pm
danielc wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 1:49 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:39 pm
Njm8845 wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:35 pm
Forgive the basic question, but I always thought leveraged etfs were dangerous because they only seek to return a multiple DAILY.

My understanding is that they don’t do well long term, especially when there’s excess volatility.
This is addressed in the OP of Part I. MoneyMarathon also did an awesome job of showing how rebalancing against an imperfectly correlated asset reduces the volatility decay.
Hey. I've spent the last three weeks reading through the entire thread. I'm currently on page 12 or Part II. Can you point me to the post where MoneyMarathon shows how rebalacing reduces volatility decay? I think I missed that post. Thanks!
Here's a crunchy post:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192&p=4700729#p4700539

Kevin M give his summary here:

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192&p=4702598#p4701866
Thanks!

kmft
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by kmft » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:34 pm

LittleBitMore wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:06 am
Has anyone figured out Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program?

UPRO & TMF seem like exactly the kind of shares that would be lent out which should help cut the cost of the annual fees and possibly provide some real return during the next crisis. I know Interactive Brokers has a similar offering that pays 50% of the interest but I'd really like to not need to transfer money *again* for this adventure.
Why would there be much demand to short UPRO & TMF when someone could just purchase SPXU & TMV to short? Or by purchasing SPXU & TMV, are UPRO & TMF shares actually being loaned out? Anyone know how this works?

kmft
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by kmft » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:39 pm

privatefarmer wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:09 am
LittleBitMore wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:06 am
Has anyone figured out Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program?

UPRO & TMF seem like exactly the kind of shares that would be lent out which should help cut the cost of the annual fees and possibly provide some real return during the next crisis. I know Interactive Brokers has a similar offering that pays 50% of the interest but I'd really like to not need to transfer money *again* for this adventure.

This is very interesting.... anyone have experience with it? Does fidelity allow trading of LETFs? I use IB now but would love to switch to fidelity if I can get comparable income via security lending
Yes, they allow LETF trades. But IIRC you are using IBKR margin from time to time to lever your position further during drawdowns. I’m not sure you’d make enough interest from loaning shares on Fidelity to offset the higher margin rates at Fidelity (5%) relative to IBKR (<3%).

MoneyMarathon
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MoneyMarathon » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:54 pm

kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:34 pm
Why would there be much demand to short UPRO & TMF when someone could just purchase SPXU & TMV to short?
UPRO and TMF over many time periods have "volatility decay" losses.
SPXU and TMV also have their own "volatility decay" losses.

When you short them, you (a) are benefiting from volatility decay and (b) avoiding the volatility decay of the alternative (for example, by shorting SPXU you can capture the volatility decay on that investment and of course avoid the volatility decay of buying UPRO).

Note that "volatility decay" sometimes works the other way so it's kind of a misnomer - for example, 5 straight days of the market going up will favor the people who bought the 3x leveraged products and work against the shorts. It could be called the "compounding benefit and whipsaw penalty" but that's a mouthful.
kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:34 pm
Or by purchasing SPXU & TMV, are UPRO & TMF shares actually being loaned out?
All four are separate tickers and have their own long buyers and short sellers. No they're not linked that way. Each fund achieves its goals by buying and selling the underlying instruments (futures, etc) and then people choose to try to buy these ETFs (a long position) or to borrow the shares (and immediately sell them) with the agreement to pay off the lender at a later share price (a short position).

If it sounds complicated, that's because it is, and they're not recommended for novice investors.

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privatefarmer
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by privatefarmer » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:03 pm

kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:39 pm
privatefarmer wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:09 am
LittleBitMore wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:06 am
Has anyone figured out Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program?

UPRO & TMF seem like exactly the kind of shares that would be lent out which should help cut the cost of the annual fees and possibly provide some real return during the next crisis. I know Interactive Brokers has a similar offering that pays 50% of the interest but I'd really like to not need to transfer money *again* for this adventure.

This is very interesting.... anyone have experience with it? Does fidelity allow trading of LETFs? I use IB now but would love to switch to fidelity if I can get comparable income via security lending
Yes, they allow LETF trades. But IIRC you are using IBKR margin from time to time to lever your position further during drawdowns. I’m not sure you’d make enough interest from loaning shares on Fidelity to offset the higher margin rates at Fidelity (5%) relative to IBKR (<3%).
Thanks. I was thinking of using fidelity for my Roth IRAs, assuming their security lending program is offered in IRA?

kmft
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by kmft » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:08 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:54 pm
kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:34 pm
Why would there be much demand to short UPRO & TMF when someone could just purchase SPXU & TMV to short?
UPRO and TMF over many time periods have "volatility decay" losses.
SPXU and TMV also have their own "volatility decay" losses.

When you short them, you (a) are benefiting from volatility decay and (b) avoiding the volatility decay of the alternative (for example, by shorting SPXU you can capture the volatility decay on that investment and of course avoid the volatility decay of buying UPRO).

Note that "volatility decay" sometimes works the other way so it's kind of a misnomer - for example, 5 straight days of the market going up will favor the people who bought the 3x leveraged products and work against the shorts. It could be called the "compounding benefit and whipsaw penalty" but that's a mouthful.
Makes sense, thank you for the explanation.

kmft
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by kmft » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:09 pm

privatefarmer wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:03 pm
kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:39 pm
privatefarmer wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:09 am
LittleBitMore wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:06 am
Has anyone figured out Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program?

UPRO & TMF seem like exactly the kind of shares that would be lent out which should help cut the cost of the annual fees and possibly provide some real return during the next crisis. I know Interactive Brokers has a similar offering that pays 50% of the interest but I'd really like to not need to transfer money *again* for this adventure.

This is very interesting.... anyone have experience with it? Does fidelity allow trading of LETFs? I use IB now but would love to switch to fidelity if I can get comparable income via security lending
Yes, they allow LETF trades. But IIRC you are using IBKR margin from time to time to lever your position further during drawdowns. I’m not sure you’d make enough interest from loaning shares on Fidelity to offset the higher margin rates at Fidelity (5%) relative to IBKR (<3%).
Thanks. I was thinking of using fidelity for my Roth IRAs, assuming their security lending program is offered in IRA?
Yes, Fidelity offers it in their IRAs.

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privatefarmer
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by privatefarmer » Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:48 pm

Awesome. I think I’ll split my Roth IRAs (which are 100% LETFs) between IB and fidelity and see which one pays more via security lending. I’ll post with updates.

LittleBitMore
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by LittleBitMore » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:39 am

kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:09 pm
privatefarmer wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:03 pm
kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:39 pm
privatefarmer wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:09 am
LittleBitMore wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:06 am
Has anyone figured out Fidelity's Fully Paid Lending program?

UPRO & TMF seem like exactly the kind of shares that would be lent out which should help cut the cost of the annual fees and possibly provide some real return during the next crisis. I know Interactive Brokers has a similar offering that pays 50% of the interest but I'd really like to not need to transfer money *again* for this adventure.

This is very interesting.... anyone have experience with it? Does fidelity allow trading of LETFs? I use IB now but would love to switch to fidelity if I can get comparable income via security lending
Yes, they allow LETF trades. But IIRC you are using IBKR margin from time to time to lever your position further during drawdowns. I’m not sure you’d make enough interest from loaning shares on Fidelity to offset the higher margin rates at Fidelity (5%) relative to IBKR (<3%).
Thanks. I was thinking of using fidelity for my Roth IRAs, assuming their security lending program is offered in IRA?
Yes, Fidelity offers it in their IRAs.
Any idea how to sign up for it? Got my IRA all loaded at Fidelity but I can't find the "sign up for security lending" button. All I found is articles talking about their "Fully Paid Lending" program but no where to actually do it.

pepys
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by pepys » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:10 am

LittleBitMore wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:39 am
kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:09 pm
privatefarmer wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:03 pm
kmft wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:39 pm
privatefarmer wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:09 am



This is very interesting.... anyone have experience with it? Does fidelity allow trading of LETFs? I use IB now but would love to switch to fidelity if I can get comparable income via security lending
Yes, they allow LETF trades. But IIRC you are using IBKR margin from time to time to lever your position further during drawdowns. I’m not sure you’d make enough interest from loaning shares on Fidelity to offset the higher margin rates at Fidelity (5%) relative to IBKR (<3%).
Thanks. I was thinking of using fidelity for my Roth IRAs, assuming their security lending program is offered in IRA?
Yes, Fidelity offers it in their IRAs.
Any idea how to sign up for it? Got my IRA all loaded at Fidelity but I can't find the "sign up for security lending" button. All I found is articles talking about their "Fully Paid Lending" program but no where to actually do it.
I just filled out the form here. Have not gotten the email with the application yet.

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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by danielc » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:42 am

drzzzzz wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 5:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:42 pm
Correct. Fidelity does I believe but most are using M1 Finance as they have no transaction fees, allow fractional shares, and have a 1-button rebalancing option that is about as good as it gets for this portfolio (only thing better would be scheduled rebalances). You can even setup automatic contributions and they'll go to the underweight asset.
I am doing part of a ROTH IRA through Fidelity using UPRO and TMF - had no problems purchasing and will rebalance without any fees on the trades since right now I have 200 free trades from transferring the account to them.
Replying to an old comment, but I wanted to ask about this. I am also at Fidelity. I thought ALL their ETF trades had $0 commission. I never transferred an account to them, I never got an offer for XXX free trades. I've been buying ETFs at Fidelity for a while both in IRA accounts and in taxable, and I haven't noticed any commissions. Have I missed something? I think I would have noticed if there was a commission.

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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by fwellimort » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:51 am

danielc wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:42 am
drzzzzz wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 5:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:42 pm
Correct. Fidelity does I believe but most are using M1 Finance as they have no transaction fees, allow fractional shares, and have a 1-button rebalancing option that is about as good as it gets for this portfolio (only thing better would be scheduled rebalances). You can even setup automatic contributions and they'll go to the underweight asset.
I am doing part of a ROTH IRA through Fidelity using UPRO and TMF - had no problems purchasing and will rebalance without any fees on the trades since right now I have 200 free trades from transferring the account to them.
Replying to an old comment, but I wanted to ask about this. I am also at Fidelity. I thought ALL their ETF trades had $0 commission. I never transferred an account to them, I never got an offer for XXX free trades. I've been buying ETFs at Fidelity for a while both in IRA accounts and in taxable, and I haven't noticed any commissions. Have I missed something? I think I would have noticed if there was a commission.
People here use m1finance because of the ease with rebalancing.
Yes, Fidelity has no fees with stocks and ETFs (and now allows free partial trades on both on mobile -and soon desktop-).

M1 Finance though is a bit different because it lets you choose a "portfolio allocation" at the start and
all you need to do is click "re-balance" OR create a "re-balance rule" that balances whenever the portfolio drifts off.

E.G.:
1. You create a 'portfolio' with 55% UPRO, 45% TMF
2. You put in money to M1 Finance
3. You click "rebalance"
4. The next day, your money automatically gets allocated to 55 UPRO, 45 TMF
5. 3 months later you check your portfolio. You realize allocation is 42 UPRO 58 TMF
6. You click "rebalance"
7. Then you realize even clicking "rebalance" is too much work. Unlike Fidelity, you can put "automatic rebalancing" on M1 Finance.
You make it rebalance every 3 month AND when allocation is more than 5% off.
8. You open 40 years later... you realize it constantly rebalanced every 3 month + every drift for you without any worry.

With Fidelity.. it becomes
1. You put money to Fidelity
2. You grab a calculator and do X * 0.55. Then X * 0.45. Then you try to buy shares through those respective values (with mobile trade, you can now trade in dollars so much easier than 'guesstimating' shares with some leftover cash.
3. You log in after 3 month. You again grab your calculator and do Y * 0.55. Then Y * 0.45.
4. And so on. (And keep doing this for say 40 years...)

That's only real reason M1 Finance is so popular with this investing theory. Nothing else. Both are free for trading. Only thing is M1 Finance makes portfolio allocation rebalancing really convenient and easy.
Plus, the latter approach (using Fidelity) has more room for human errors (including behavior errors).

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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by danielc » Fri Feb 14, 2020 2:04 am

fwellimort wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:51 am
danielc wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:42 am
Replying to an old comment, but I wanted to ask about this. I am also at Fidelity. I thought ALL their ETF trades had $0 commission. I never transferred an account to them, I never got an offer for XXX free trades. I've been buying ETFs at Fidelity for a while both in IRA accounts and in taxable, and I haven't noticed any commissions. Have I missed something? I think I would have noticed if there was a commission.
People here use m1finance because of the ease with rebalancing.
Yes, Fidelity has no fees with stocks and ETFs (and now allows free partial trades on both on mobile -and soon desktop-).
Ok. Glad to know I haven't accidentally missed a fee at Fidelity. I haven't seen an announcement that Fidelity will allow partial trades on the desktop. I mean... you would expect that they would do that eventually, since they are rolling it out on mobile, but I don't think they've announced plans.

fwellimort wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:51 am
With Fidelity.. it becomes
1. You put money to Fidelity
2. You grab a calculator and do X * 0.55. Then X * 0.45. Then you try to buy shares through those respective values (with mobile trade, you can now trade in dollars so much easier than 'guesstimating' shares with some leftover cash.
3. You log in after 3 month. You again grab your calculator and do Y * 0.55. Then Y * 0.45.
4. And so on. (And keep doing this for say 40 years...)
I can make it a little bit easier with a google spreadsheet. It automatically pulls the current NAV of UPRO and TMF and tells me how many units to buy and sell of each. A spreadsheet is great for the target volatility folks. I have it setup to it computes the UPRO/TMF allocation based on recent volatility and then tells me what to buy & sell.

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privatefarmer
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by privatefarmer » Fri Feb 14, 2020 6:20 am

I too signed up to receive Fidelity’s application for the security lending program and never got anything emailed... maybe it’s too new of a program still....

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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Feb 14, 2020 7:42 am

fwellimort wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:51 am
7. Then you realize even clicking "rebalance" is too much work. Unlike Fidelity, you can put "automatic rebalancing" on M1 Finance.
You make it rebalance every 3 month AND when allocation is more than 5% off.
M1 didn’t have this when I left. Must be new.

The 3 month system sounds great but I would wager 5% automated rebalancing bands would’ve obliterated a portfolio in the GFC downturn; even just using monthly rebalancing was a huge increase in drawdown. I think hydromod found 15%(?) to be a sweet spot.

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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by drzzzzz » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:04 am

danielc wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:42 am
drzzzzz wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 5:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:42 pm
Correct. Fidelity does I believe but most are using M1 Finance as they have no transaction fees, allow fractional shares, and have a 1-button rebalancing option that is about as good as it gets for this portfolio (only thing better would be scheduled rebalances). You can even setup automatic contributions and they'll go to the underweight asset.
I am doing part of a ROTH IRA through Fidelity using UPRO and TMF - had no problems purchasing and will rebalance without any fees on the trades since right now I have 200 free trades from transferring the account to them.
Replying to an old comment, but I wanted to ask about this. I am also at Fidelity. I thought ALL their ETF trades had $0 commission. I never transferred an account to them, I never got an offer for XXX free trades. I've been buying ETFs at Fidelity for a while both in IRA accounts and in taxable, and I haven't noticed any commissions. Have I missed something? I think I would have noticed if there was a commission.
All their trades became free after I wrote this thanks

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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Lee_WSP » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:19 am

fwellimort wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:51 am

8. You open 40 years later... you realize it constantly rebalanced every 3 month + every drift for you without any worry.

Or you find out that your account was closed due to inactivity and your shares sold.

https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answersescheathtm.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/escheat- ... 28869.html

Hydromod
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Hydromod » Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:22 am

fwellimort wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:51 am
M1 Finance though is a bit different because it lets you choose a "portfolio allocation" at the start and
all you need to do is click "re-balance" OR create a "re-balance rule" that balances whenever the portfolio drifts off.

E.G.:
1. You create a 'portfolio' with 55% UPRO, 45% TMF
2. You put in money to M1 Finance
3. You click "rebalance"
4. The next day, your money automatically gets allocated to 55 UPRO, 45 TMF
5. 3 months later you check your portfolio. You realize allocation is 42 UPRO 58 TMF
6. You click "rebalance"
7. Then you realize even clicking "rebalance" is too much work. Unlike Fidelity, you can put "automatic rebalancing" on M1 Finance.
You make it rebalance every 3 month AND when allocation is more than 5% off.
8. You open 40 years later... you realize it constantly rebalanced every 3 month + every drift for you without any worry.
The automatic rebalancing function described in the FAQs says

No, M1 will not initiate a rebalance of your portfolio without your instruction. If you want your holdings to match your target portfolio, you will have to initiate a rebalance.

When newly deposited cash is used to make new trades in your portfolio, M1's algorithm identifies slices that are most relatively underweight and puts money in those first to keep your portfolio in line with its target. This is called Dynamic Rebalancing.


Where did you find the description of periodic rebalancing?

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danielc
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by danielc » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:29 am

drzzzzz wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:04 am
danielc wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:42 am
drzzzzz wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 5:59 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:42 pm
Correct. Fidelity does I believe but most are using M1 Finance as they have no transaction fees, allow fractional shares, and have a 1-button rebalancing option that is about as good as it gets for this portfolio (only thing better would be scheduled rebalances). You can even setup automatic contributions and they'll go to the underweight asset.
I am doing part of a ROTH IRA through Fidelity using UPRO and TMF - had no problems purchasing and will rebalance without any fees on the trades since right now I have 200 free trades from transferring the account to them.
Replying to an old comment, but I wanted to ask about this. I am also at Fidelity. I thought ALL their ETF trades had $0 commission. I never transferred an account to them, I never got an offer for XXX free trades. I've been buying ETFs at Fidelity for a while both in IRA accounts and in taxable, and I haven't noticed any commissions. Have I missed something? I think I would have noticed if there was a commission.
All their trades became free after I wrote this thanks
Ah! Good to know. I was worried I had missed a fee. Thanks.

pepys
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by pepys » Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:59 am

[deleted]
Last edited by pepys on Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

Walkure
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Walkure » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:26 pm

pepys wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:59 am
Hedgefundiers:

I have a good amount of TMF in my taxable account. Does anyone know if the distributions are state tax exempt? I could not find that information online.
I received my 1099-DIV from M1 and was just trying to figure out the same thing! Each quarter there are two distributions from TMF, one qualified dividend and one unqualified (at least that's how it is shown on the "Details of 2019 Form 1099-DIV" Statement, which clearly states is NOT a substitute for the actual 1099 form on the preceding page.) The UPRO dividends are 100% qualified.

Based on that, I am assuming that the qualified TMF distributions are from the swaps, and the non-qualified TMF distributions are from its underlying holding of TLT, which is an iShares product. I found a pdf on iShares website from tax year 2018 which indicates that TLT's share of income from US government obligations: https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/t ... 716336.pdf
edit: I found the 2019 iShares report:
https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/t ... 067835.pdf


In 2018 it was in the neighborhood of 99% (oddly enough another google search turns up the 2015 table, where only 70% of TLT's income was govt source, no idea where the other 30% came from :!: ) So I expect we take the info from the 2019 table from iShares for TLT, 99.88%, then multiply that percentage by the non-qualified portion of the TMF distribution to arrive at the amount that is excludable from your state taxes. Any tax gurus out there who can confirm this? It does not appear that Direxion provides this information anywhere, but maybe I'm just missing something.

Stump909
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Stump909 » Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:53 pm

I'm honestly blown away by the number of people starting off their investment journey, with this strategy, and how popular these app brokerages are. I wouldn't trust any of them with a sizable portfolio, especially considering the number of reliable big names out there. I'm curious how many here run for the hills, once we have a real pull-back and their entire portfolio is down 75%. It's a curious side-bet, but absolutely no one should have their entire portfolio dedicated to this.

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Ramjet
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Ramjet » Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:33 pm

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 10:01 pm
moptop wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:38 pm
What % of your portfolio do you want to be in PSLDX?
As much as I can get. I want all my tax-advantaged space going to PSLDX, with international or other US funds in taxable. I think 70% US / 30% international is reasonable.
Have you considered adding any of the PIMCO Stocksplus International funds, e.g., PSKIX or PISIX

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