All good points.psteinx wrote: ↑Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:47 pmWhile it's nice for Petro that the asking price for 3 items (the prints, the Rolex, his house) have all apparently gone up over the years, I would issue some cautions:
1) The apparent fact that the artist now asks more for the same prints doesn't mean so much. I suspect that if Petro himself tried to sell his prints, via EBay or whatever, he would net a fairly small amount in relation to the artist's asking price on his own website. As a wild guess, perhaps 30-50% (again, netting transaction costs), and if that left a profit versus his buy price, he'd owe high collectibles tax on the profit. Realistically, if/when his kids try to sell these things, 20-40 years from now, they'd probably realize even less, inflation adjusted. That's not a comment on the specific artist (I don't know anything about him/her), but just being realistic about photographic prints, of which there are likely many for any particular image.
2) Re: the Rolex. Yes, pricey watches in general, and perhaps Rolex in particular, have enjoyed a bit of a boom in the last couple decades or so. But Rolex (and others) are cranking them out, and old collectors/owners die off. So the market must swallow both new production and the sell-off from those dying or getting out of the hobby. Smart phones have only been around for what - a decade or so? And smart watches about half as long. For the latter in particular, the improvements in general functionality and battery life are likely to continue to be quite strong over the next decade plus, and I wonder how many folks in the 20-35 generation will ever become true mechanical watch enthusiasts, compared to say, the current 50-65 generation. Perhaps many of these Rolexes, a few decades hence, will end up in drawers and boxes, not all that differently from, say, stamps that were collected by folks a century or so ago.
For both 1 and 2, to be clear, Petro, and others, may get immense personal satisfaction from owning/using these things, in his lifetime. That's fine. I'm mainly cautioning against an expectation of financial gain or even breaking even, in real terms, over the long haul, on average/expectation.
3) Housing. Not entirely sure where Petro lives. Certainly, some parts of the country have seen immense price appreciation. But for large sections of the country, price appreciation has been modest at best - inflation-ish or less. I'd guess <10% of the housing stock in existence ca. 1980 has seen price appreciation at Petro's level. Kudos to Petro. If his purchase was at least in part a sort of investment by design, further kudos. But for most of us, a house is a place to live, and the specific choice we make is dominated by considerations other than the possibility of fabulous returns. We live where employment, family, and our history/interests are. The problem with retelling, too often, the stories of a house going up in value by ~5x is that it encourages young folks to think of a house as sort of "free". Yeah, sure the mortgage cost may be 2x that of a rental (plus maintenance and the like that a young person may neglect/underestimate). But you'll make it all back (and more!) from the fabulous appreciation!
With respect to the watch and the prints, appreciation doesn't matter. I'm not ever selling them. However, if I was to buy any of them today, they would all cost more.
With respect to the house, when I bought it, I fully expected it would appreciated. I bought the smallest house in the neighborhood, and it has an ocean view. Like I said, I paid $625,000 for it.] A lot downhill from ours is on the market for $3,650,000 with no house on it. So it looks like my kids will be OK when I pass on.
As an aside, when my son was young, we started collecting basketball cards. We started the year Kobe Bryant was a rookie, and we probably have 20-30 Kobe rookie cards. As for their value .... I don't care because I'm not selling them either.