Are you a closet market-timer?

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RobLyons
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by RobLyons » Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:54 pm

Not a closet market timer. Only adjust my 403b contributions based on EF / available cash / bills each month (can't max contribute at our income level)
"Great parenting sets the foundation for a better world"

DB2
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by DB2 » Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:17 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:50 pm
DB2 wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:10 pm
Yep. A number of 'purist' Bogleheads sold off back in 2008. The same thing will happen again in the next severe downturn. There is 'theory' and there is reality (human emotions). I believe very few people can hold all of their equities during a meltdown like that.
I held onto everything in 2008, but not because I'm smart. It was too scary and I didn't know what else to do, so I did nothing.

I was the proverbial "deer in the headlights." :shock: But my PF value all came back by the end of 2010. :mrgreen:
That's awesome. I only had a relatively small amount of money then in some large cap funds in my 401K which I just left in.

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Bluce
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Bluce » Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:42 pm

DB2 wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:17 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:50 pm
DB2 wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:10 pm
Yep. A number of 'purist' Bogleheads sold off back in 2008. The same thing will happen again in the next severe downturn. There is 'theory' and there is reality (human emotions). I believe very few people can hold all of their equities during a meltdown like that.
I held onto everything in 2008, but not because I'm smart. It was too scary and I didn't know what else to do, so I did nothing.

I was the proverbial "deer in the headlights." :shock: But my PF value all came back by the end of 2010. :mrgreen:
That's awesome. I only had a relatively small amount of money then in some large cap funds in my 401K which I just left in.
From the fall of '07 til it bottomed out in March '09, my PF dropped about double the value of my (not extravagant) house. And my PF will be my only source of retirement income (aside from SS) -- so was it scary? Dang, you bet. :oops:

I never even opened my monthly statements for about a year there in the middle somewhere. But I watched the market every day, and just from that I knew pretty closely what was going on in my PF.

I'll be 70 this summer, and my AA is 30/70 now with a fair amount of Treasurys -- which, I hope, will work contrary to the inevitable stock bear. :|

But we shall see. It's all just a big crap shoot anyway, then you get old and die. :sharebeer

flaccidsteele
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Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm

Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

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Bluce
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Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Bluce » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:04 pm

flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm
Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
That's all well and good if it's just Monopoly money.

Image

If it's your retirement portfolio, then it's all different. Or should be.

MathWizard
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by MathWizard » Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:14 pm

DB2 wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:10 pm
3504PIR wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:42 am
I’m not a strict follower of anyone’s rules but my own, but I will say that staying the course has benefited our assets. To be brutally honest, I don’t pay attention to the moves of the market with any sort of detail other than being generally aware of what I may hear on the evening news if it happens to be on. In other words, I gave up detailed market following decades ago because it isn’t my job and I lack the time to do it. However, I recall a very long post during the meltdown in 2008-2009 where my impression from the thousands of posts was that the majority (to me, meaning more than half) who were posting in real time did not “stay the course.” A detailed analysis might prove me wrong, but you’d be amazed at how many active posters at the time did in fact not stay the course.

It’s also interesting that many of those active posters no longer participate here for a variety of reasons I’m sure. Additionally, it is interesting that when the topic comes up as the years go by, people who registered around the time I did or later more often than not seem to have “stayed the course.” Who knows, outside of a 529 plan, we had little skin in the game at the time, but it definitely made me a very conservative investor with a lasting impression that still remains fresh in my mind. People react differently when watching their life savings implode. I’m no better and hope my AA is correct for my mental capacity for loss and I keep a healthy allocation in cash whenever I am able and a lower than average Bogleheads allocation to stocks.

So to me, my eyes are as open as I can make them, but don’t believe that everyone touting “stay the course” will do so. Look up some old threads from back then and you’ll be amazed. One of the better ones had the words Plan B in the title if I recall correctly.
Yep. A number of 'purist' Bogleheads sold off back in 2008. The same thing will happen again in the next severe downturn. There is 'theory' and there is reality (human emotions). I believe very few people can hold all of their equities during a meltdown like that.
I held all my equities and moved all in in stages, 80% stocks to 90 in late 2008, and to 100% stocks in March 2009, at just about the bottom.

On New Year's Eve, in 2008 I was "down" 50% from the high in the summer of 2008. In reality, the value of the portions of the businesses that I owned was the same. If they were junk when I bought in, they were still junk or bankrupt after the crash, and other businesses would move into that segment of the market.

By owned the total market, I am invested in the "publicly traded" wealth creation engines. The companies may have a bad year or two,but the vast majority will stay profitable and make money for me.

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Financologist
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Financologist » Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am

flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm
Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
What did the market do while your money was on the sidelines waiting for a crash?

Topic Author
Financologist
Posts: 202
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:16 pm

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Financologist » Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:25 am

MathWizard wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:47 pm
No, not in the closet. I adjust AA based on the best available information. If you want to label me a market timer, so be it.

I shifted my AA towards stocks in 2001, 2003, and 2008/9, going form 80% to 100% stocks in 2008/2009. I was comfortable with that.

I have backed off to 50% in the last few years as equities have become more expensive compared to inflation adjusted earnings.
I will shift back to something like 70/30 or 80/20 going into retirement, once I believe that stock prices align better with earnings.

Keeping a fixed AA just means controlling against volatility risk. I take a different view of risk.
Why not shift equity holdings to Europe and EM where multiples are lower?

flaccidsteele
Posts: 286
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Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:15 am

Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm
Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
What did the market do while your money was on the sidelines waiting for a crash?
Who said anything about waiting?

When markets are down, I buy more. That’s market timing

Investing is a simple game. Especially when everybody knows that the US stock market always recovers
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

flaccidsteele
Posts: 286
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:28 am

Bluce wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 8:04 pm
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm
Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
That's all well and good if it's just Monopoly money.

Image

If it's your retirement portfolio, then it's all different. Or should be.
Combine Monopoly money with the fact that US stock markets always recover and it’s a simple game of rinse and repeat
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

CardioMD
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by CardioMD » Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:35 am

The only timing I do is I time my buying decisions for the times everyone else is panic selling.

MathWizard
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by MathWizard » Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:06 pm

Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:25 am
MathWizard wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:47 pm
No, not in the closet. I adjust AA based on the best available information. If you want to label me a market timer, so be it.

I shifted my AA towards stocks in 2001, 2003, and 2008/9, going form 80% to 100% stocks in 2008/2009. I was comfortable with that.

I have backed off to 50% in the last few years as equities have become more expensive compared to inflation adjusted earnings.
I will shift back to something like 70/30 or 80/20 going into retirement, once I believe that stock prices align better with earnings.

Keeping a fixed AA just means controlling against volatility risk. I take a different view of risk.
Why not shift equity holdings to Europe and EM where multiples are lower?
Because I know what I understand, and what I don't.

I understand the US market.

I have a small amount of European international as a hedge, but no emerging markets. Again because I don't understand EM like I do US and somewhat Europe.

Some may call that home country bias, and maybe it is, but I think of it as staying within my circle of competence.

I am not suggesting anyone else follow my strategy, I am just doing what works for me. I am not casting aspersions on anyone.

The title of this thread suggests that on this board that you have to hide changing AA,lest it break the rules of the "Bogleheads Club". This is not true. Jack Bogle's message was that costs matter, and that index funds are really a free lunch in terms of diversification and the ability to keep costs low. This was more true when Vanguard
was formed due to higher trading fees and lot size restrictions.

Caduceus
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Caduceus » Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:54 pm

I don't think that having a lot of cash/bonds at this point necessarily makes someone a market timer. There are valuation-based investment strategies - so you could have a lot of cash just because you can't find something to invest in at the moment. For passive indexing strategies, I don't see a big problem in people tweaking around the edges if they are sticking to pre-set rebalancing bands. It's like a psychological release valve and unlikely to make much difference anyway.

I had a fairly tremendous 2019 and I'm 80% in cash now not because I think I know where the market is going to be at in the next month or year, but because I can't find something to invest in yet. I put a huge sum to work in the last two weeks when I found something, so it's not like I want to be in cash.

Trader Joe
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Trader Joe » Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:57 pm

Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Something's been eating away at me...

For all the talk about staying the course, investment policies, automated rebalancing etc.. an awful lot of folks seem to adjust their desired asset allocations at "compelling market moments."

I am hypothesizing that asset allocations are adjusted more frequently in volatile markets than in calm ones. They are tweaked at perceived highs and lows more often than when markets float inside of recently established ranges. Traders and other market-timers always do this. But I am talking to the BH faithful right now. Subscribers of the staid principles of Bogleian investing.

I raise my hand as a case in point. I've considered myself to be a stone-cold dollar cost average investor for a long time. But recently I find myself reexamining this position. Over the last couple of months I've made a significant reallocation - shifting ~5% of my net worth from stocks to bonds. The impetus (I told myself) was a general assessment of my station in life: A combination of accelerated retirement plans, diminished volatility tolerance, perceived reduction in income predictability etc.. I concluded mild de-risking was prudent.

Before you, I confront myself with a disturbing possibility. All the rationalizations were a pretext for having "sold high" at a point where fear trumped greed.

Are you right now "reassessing your risk tolerance" or "reexamining your investment policy" or undertaking some Bogleian exercise all in the name of justifying what your gut demands of you.. to SELLLLL!!!? Are you a closet market-timer?
No, I never try to time the market.

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Financologist
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Financologist » Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:09 pm

flaccidsteele wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:15 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm
Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
What did the market do while your money was on the sidelines waiting for a crash?
Who said anything about waiting?

When markets are down, I buy more. That’s market timing

Investing is a simple game. Especially when everybody knows that the US stock market always recovers
Where is the money coming from? If you are buying more equities, then you are selling a different asset or using cash to fund the purchase.. right? Either way that money was not in equities. What was your opportunity cost of the money on the sidelines?

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grabiner
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by grabiner » Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:55 pm

Financologist wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:09 pm
A policy statement is based on the point in time at which it was created. I am coming to the belief that people tinker with their policy statements and their plans at an increased rate during compelling market moments. It's fascinating to see how people offer rationalizations at an increased frequency during this time also. I include myself in that group.
And mine has a specific rule to prevent that:
This statement will be reviewed whenever there is a substantial change in my financial situation, and annually when I rebalance. If there is no substantial change in my financial situation, I will wait at least three months between changing the asset allocation in my statement and changing the asset allocation of my investments, and review the change
in the statement at that time.
I have had this paragraph ever since I first wrote the IPS; here are examples of how it applied to my last three changes.

In 2013, I bought a condo and took out a mortgage. This was a substantial change in my finances, so I updated the IPS with a new appropriate allocation, and with guidance for whether to pay down the mortgage or invest more. This was cause for an immediate change in my asset allocation.

In January 2015, I set a retirement glidepath, decreasing my net stock allocation by 2% annually. I made the first adjustment in April 2015, but continued to do this every January; my 2020 rebalance went from 90% to 88%.

In August 2018, I added an allocation to large-cap international value to the IPS because a good option (iShares IVLU) had become available. I didn't actually buy any until January 2019, when I both had the money available and had no other more important asset class to add.
Wiki David Grabiner

3504PIR
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by 3504PIR » Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:00 am

DB2 wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 4:10 pm
3504PIR wrote:
Fri Feb 07, 2020 2:42 am
I’m not a strict follower of anyone’s rules but my own, but I will say that staying the course has benefited our assets. To be brutally honest, I don’t pay attention to the moves of the market with any sort of detail other than being generally aware of what I may hear on the evening news if it happens to be on. In other words, I gave up detailed market following decades ago because it isn’t my job and I lack the time to do it. However, I recall a very long post during the meltdown in 2008-2009 where my impression from the thousands of posts was that the majority (to me, meaning more than half) who were posting in real time did not “stay the course.” A detailed analysis might prove me wrong, but you’d be amazed at how many active posters at the time did in fact not stay the course.

It’s also interesting that many of those active posters no longer participate here for a variety of reasons I’m sure. Additionally, it is interesting that when the topic comes up as the years go by, people who registered around the time I did or later more often than not seem to have “stayed the course.” Who knows, outside of a 529 plan, we had little skin in the game at the time, but it definitely made me a very conservative investor with a lasting impression that still remains fresh in my mind. People react differently when watching their life savings implode. I’m no better and hope my AA is correct for my mental capacity for loss and I keep a healthy allocation in cash whenever I am able and a lower than average Bogleheads allocation to stocks.

So to me, my eyes are as open as I can make them, but don’t believe that everyone touting “stay the course” will do so. Look up some old threads from back then and you’ll be amazed. One of the better ones had the words Plan B in the title if I recall correctly.
Yep. A number of 'purist' Bogleheads sold off back in 2008. The same thing will happen again in the next severe downturn. There is 'theory' and there is reality (human emotions). I believe very few people can hold all of their equities during a meltdown like that.
Very well said, and I often think about how I would’ve reacted given my personal situation at the time and obviously now. Thus far my “reaction” has no doubt cost me money with my reflective conservative portfolio, but it remains a best guess for any of us.

flaccidsteele
Posts: 286
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Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:07 am

Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:09 pm
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:15 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm
Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
What did the market do while your money was on the sidelines waiting for a crash?
Who said anything about waiting?

When markets are down, I buy more. That’s market timing

Investing is a simple game. Especially when everybody knows that the US stock market always recovers
Where is the money coming from? If you are buying more equities, then you are selling a different asset or using cash to fund the purchase.. right? Either way that money was not in equities. What was your opportunity cost of the money on the sidelines?
I used to work. Once retirement accounts are full I stack cash. That’s where cash comes from

Buying more during downturns is probably why my retirement accounts have average annual returns of over 13-14% for over almost 15 years

In 2010 US-index had already recovered so bought enough rentals to retire in my 40s. Housing crash was so crazy that it soaked up all cash that I even downsized our home to buy more rentals

Opportunity cost? Don’t know. Retired in my 40s and have over $5.3m. Opportunity cost for more money that I’m won’t use?

I guess I could have more today but doubtful. If I was fully invested how would I have invested more in the US index or US rentals when they tanked? Likely did far better than being fully invested all the time

US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

Topic Author
Financologist
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Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:16 pm

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Financologist » Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am

flaccidsteele wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:07 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:09 pm
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:15 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm


I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
What did the market do while your money was on the sidelines waiting for a crash?
Who said anything about waiting?

When markets are down, I buy more. That’s market timing

Investing is a simple game. Especially when everybody knows that the US stock market always recovers
Where is the money coming from? If you are buying more equities, then you are selling a different asset or using cash to fund the purchase.. right? Either way that money was not in equities. What was your opportunity cost of the money on the sidelines?
I used to work. Once retirement accounts are full I stack cash. That’s where cash comes from

Buying more during downturns is probably why my retirement accounts have average annual returns of over 13-14% for over almost 15 years

In 2010 US-index had already recovered so bought enough rentals to retire in my 40s. Housing crash was so crazy that it soaked up all cash that I even downsized our home to buy more rentals

Opportunity cost? Don’t know. Retired in my 40s and have over $5.3m. Opportunity cost for more money that I’m won’t use?

I guess I could have more today but doubtful. If I was fully invested how would I have invested more in the US index or US rentals when they tanked? Likely did far better than being fully invested all the time

US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
Congratulations on your success.

I would love to understand more about your tactics during a downturn. For example at what point in a downturn do you start buying? Is it after the market drops 10%? 30%?

You mentioned a number of times that the market always recovers. If I'm looking at history. The market goes up after downturns. But it also has gone up after "upturns". If one only buys after major downturns They would have done well with money that they invested. Like in 2009 for example. But all money earned in one's job since that last major downturn would have been waiting on the sidelines for the next downturn and missed out on a historic bull run. So the devil would seem to be in the details. And I would love to know exactly how your strategy works.

Also the annual returns that you cited... Do they cover your entire investable portfolio or are those the returns you achieved in the stock market only? Are you including gaines on sale and taxes? Are you including mark-to-market gains and properties held or only income? If the former how do you account for taxes in you returns.

Regarding stock Investments. I think history shows that staying invested Beat jumping in and out of the market (waiting for downturns) by a wide margin in most scenarios. I agree with you that historically the stock market has always come back. The challenge would seem to be picking the moment in a downturn to throw money at the market and the gains goregone while money is held on the sidelines. . I'm not saying there aren't exceptions. . But as you point out in some of your other posts timing the market correctly would seem to be more an exercise of luck and most would be best served staying invested through ups and downs for the highest returns.

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hagridshut
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by hagridshut » Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:04 am

Yes, I am a market timer, but in a limited fashion.

I massively increased my 401(k) contribution levels from late 2008 through 2009. Collecting a huge amount of index fund shares at half-price was too good an opportunity to pass up. In late 2018, when the stock market fell 20% for no apparent reason, I did the same thing: increase contribution levels and bought nothing but S&P500 index shares. That was massively profitable on the rebound in 2019.

However, I never sell existing holdings in the hopes of buying in again at a lower price. I know from experience that my powers of prediction are not good enough to do this reliably, and that people who successfully timed the the market were more often than not just lucky. In my observation, the vast majority of market timers achieve sub-optimal or even disastrous results.
First Principles: (1) Diversify (2) Low Cost (3) Stay the Course | 3-Fund Index Portfolio: S&P500; Intl; U.S.Bonds

Lee_WSP
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Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Lee_WSP » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:39 am

flaccidsteele wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:07 am
Once retirement accounts are full I stack cash. That’s where cash comes from

Buying more during downturns is probably why my retirement accounts have average annual returns of over 13-14% for over almost 15 years

In 2010 US-index had already recovered so bought enough rentals to retire in my 40s. Housing crash was so crazy that it soaked up all cash that I even downsized our home to buy more rentals

Opportunity cost? Don’t know. Retired in my 40s and have over $5.3m. Opportunity cost for more money that I’m won’t use?

I guess I could have more today but doubtful. If I was fully invested how would I have invested more in the US index or US rentals when they tanked? Likely did far better than being fully invested all the time

US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
Just to clarify, you fully invested in the retirement accounts, but accumulated cash in your taxable account until a drop happened and then you'd deploy it?

How many times during your working life did you deploy the excess cash?

flaccidsteele
Posts: 286
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:22 am

Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:07 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:09 pm
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:15 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am

What did the market do while your money was on the sidelines waiting for a crash?
Who said anything about waiting?

When markets are down, I buy more. That’s market timing

Investing is a simple game. Especially when everybody knows that the US stock market always recovers
Where is the money coming from? If you are buying more equities, then you are selling a different asset or using cash to fund the purchase.. right? Either way that money was not in equities. What was your opportunity cost of the money on the sidelines?
I used to work. Once retirement accounts are full I stack cash. That’s where cash comes from

Buying more during downturns is probably why my retirement accounts have average annual returns of over 13-14% for over almost 15 years

In 2010 US-index had already recovered so bought enough rentals to retire in my 40s. Housing crash was so crazy that it soaked up all cash that I even downsized our home to buy more rentals

Opportunity cost? Don’t know. Retired in my 40s and have over $5.3m. Opportunity cost for more money that I’m won’t use?

I guess I could have more today but doubtful. If I was fully invested how would I have invested more in the US index or US rentals when they tanked? Likely did far better than being fully invested all the time

US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
Congratulations on your success.

I would love to understand more about your tactics during a downturn. For example at what point in a downturn do you start buying? Is it after the market drops 10%? 30%?
Nothing so exact. After market drops for a few months I look to bump up my buys

Any desirable downturn should last for months or years. I pick an increased contribution that I can sustain for awhile

I’m too slow to take advantage of flash crashes or minor falls. Generally pass my notice
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
You mentioned a number of times that the market always recovers. If I'm looking at history. The market goes up after downturns. But it also has gone up after "upturns". If one only buys after major downturns They would have done well with money that they invested. Like in 2009 for example. But all money earned in one's job since that last major downturn would have been waiting on the sidelines for the next downturn and missed out on a historic bull run. So the devil would seem to be in the details. And I would love to know exactly how your strategy works.
I don’t concern myself with bull markets/“upturns” outside of my regular US index contributions

Also never mentioned “only buying after downturns”. Always buy. Buy more during downturns. Rinse and repeat

Tech crash soaked up all excess cash from last recovery. Went back to regular contributions and excess cash stored. US index recovered as per usual. Rinse and repeat for credit crisis

Credit crisis, US stocks and real estate both collapsed. I experienced this in late 80s/early 90s. I was a teen. Had no money

Faced with a choice in 2010: increase contributions into US index ignore real estate, pivot 100% to real estate, or some combination of both

Rentals were so cheap. Impossible to ignore. Excess contribution for US equities diverted to real estate in late 2009/2010. Tough call. In retrospect 2010 most of the equity carnage was over while real estate continued to die. Couldn’t tell back then tho. Just had to make the decision and hope for the best

Regular US index contributions and buying rentals required more cash. Overwhelming number of rentals. Needed more cash. Banks refused to lend. Saved as much as I could but not enough. Downsized to keep buying
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
Also the annual returns that you cited... Do they cover your entire investable portfolio or are those the returns you achieved in the stock market only? Are you including gaines on sale and taxes?
The link is to my workplace retirement accounts. I also have non-workplace retirement accounts. Those returns are from returns achieved in the stock market. I don’t know what my average annual return from my rentals are

I don’t calculate my annual returns which is why I linked to screenshots of my retirement accounts. I’m not good with numbers. Basic arithmetic only. The companies behind my US index investment calculates my returns

I haven’t sold anything so yes, lots of deferred taxes incoming
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
Are you including mark-to-market gains and properties held or only income? If the former how do you account for taxes in you returns.
Lots of deferred taxes incoming. Hold 95% of everything I’ve ever purchased since the 90s. Live off rental income now. Tax filings are like 250 pages. I don’t do them. An accounting firm files for me
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
Regarding stock Investments. I think history shows that staying invested Beat jumping in and out of the market (waiting for downturns) by a wide margin in most scenarios.
Never jump in and out

People do market timing wrong. This is the right way:

LBYM. Jump in, contribute regularly, store excess. When market tanks, jump in deeper w excess. When market recovers, go back to regular contribution, store excess
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
I agree with you that historically the stock market has always come back. The challenge would seem to be picking the moment in a downturn to throw money at the market and the gains goregone while money is held on the sidelines. . I'm not saying there aren't exceptions. . But as you point out in some of your other posts timing the market correctly would seem to be more an exercise of luck and most would be best served staying invested through ups and downs for the highest returns.
Never time the market

Stay invested

When US market inevitably falls, buy more. When US market inevitably recovers go back to normal

Pick a threshold to start increasing buys. Example: market down 20%+ for 3+ months

I’m not sophisticated nor highly intelligent like many posters here. Investing just happens to be a mindless game of rinse and repeat

Best analogy is to increase bets when you are dealt pocket aces, kings or queens. But investing is better because getting pocket aces, kings or queens is an automatic win. US markets always recover. It’s never different this time. Guaranteed windfall
Last edited by flaccidsteele on Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:24 pm, edited 3 times in total.
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

flaccidsteele
Posts: 286
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:45 am

Lee_WSP wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:39 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:07 am
Once retirement accounts are full I stack cash. That’s where cash comes from

Buying more during downturns is probably why my retirement accounts have average annual returns of over 13-14% for over almost 15 years

In 2010 US-index had already recovered so bought enough rentals to retire in my 40s. Housing crash was so crazy that it soaked up all cash that I even downsized our home to buy more rentals

Opportunity cost? Don’t know. Retired in my 40s and have over $5.3m. Opportunity cost for more money that I’m won’t use?

I guess I could have more today but doubtful. If I was fully invested how would I have invested more in the US index or US rentals when they tanked? Likely did far better than being fully invested all the time

US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
Just to clarify, you fully invested in the retirement accounts, but accumulated cash in your taxable account until a drop happened and then you'd deploy it?
Invest regular amounts in retirement accounts

Store excess cash as cash or cash equivalent
Lee_WSP wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:39 am
How many times during your working life did you deploy the excess cash?
Twice

Tech crash and credit crisis

Excess cash generally in limbo for 6 years prior to tech wreck and 6 years prior to credit crisis

But “bottomless” crash can eat up 6 years of excess cash very fast. I portion it out

NB: Infatuated with Buffett as a teen and regularly purchased Berkshire Hathaway class B stock with each pay check in 90s. Big mistake. I would never invest in individual stocks today, but I was new grad. Didn’t know any better. Went to shareholder meeting. Bored to tears. Buffett more exciting in books/articles/interviews

Tech crash bought more Berkshire Hathaway class B. Stupid move. Figured if stock was good at $2200-$2700/sh it was even better at $1400/sh. This was before 30-1 reverse split

Indexing came into the picture during tech wreck. Decided to refocus on US index. Kept Berkshire but regularly added to US index

Have over 3000 shares of class B. I need to sell Berkshire to remove single stock risk
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

Topic Author
Financologist
Posts: 202
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:16 pm

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Financologist » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:10 am

flaccidsteele wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:22 am
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:07 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 9:09 pm
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:15 am


Who said anything about waiting?

When markets are down, I buy more. That’s market timing

Investing is a simple game. Especially when everybody knows that the US stock market always recovers
Where is the money coming from? If you are buying more equities, then you are selling a different asset or using cash to fund the purchase.. right? Either way that money was not in equities. What was your opportunity cost of the money on the sidelines?
I used to work. Once retirement accounts are full I stack cash. That’s where cash comes from

Buying more during downturns is probably why my retirement accounts have average annual returns of over 13-14% for over almost 15 years

In 2010 US-index had already recovered so bought enough rentals to retire in my 40s. Housing crash was so crazy that it soaked up all cash that I even downsized our home to buy more rentals

Opportunity cost? Don’t know. Retired in my 40s and have over $5.3m. Opportunity cost for more money that I’m won’t use?

I guess I could have more today but doubtful. If I was fully invested how would I have invested more in the US index or US rentals when they tanked? Likely did far better than being fully invested all the time

US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
Congratulations on your success.

I would love to understand more about your tactics during a downturn. For example at what point in a downturn do you start buying? Is it after the market drops 10%? 30%?
Nothing so exact. After market drops for a few months I look to bump up my buys

Any desirable downturn should last for months or years. I pick an increased contribution that I can sustain for awhile

I’m too slow to take advantage of flash crashes or minor falls. Generally pass my notice
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
You mentioned a number of times that the market always recovers. If I'm looking at history. The market goes up after downturns. But it also has gone up after "upturns". If one only buys after major downturns They would have done well with money that they invested. Like in 2009 for example. But all money earned in one's job since that last major downturn would have been waiting on the sidelines for the next downturn and missed out on a historic bull run. So the devil would seem to be in the details. And I would love to know exactly how your strategy works.
I don’t concern myself with bull markets/“upturns” outside of my regular US index contributions

Also never mentioned “only buying after downturns”. Always buy. Buy more during downturns. Rinse and repeat

Tech crash soaked up all excess cash from last recovery. Went back to regular contributions and excess cash stored. US index recovered as per usual. Rinse and repeat for credit crisis

Credit crisis, US stocks and real estate both collapsed. I experienced this in late 80s/early 90s. I was a teen. Had no money

Faced with a choice in 2010: increase contributions into US index ignore real estate, pivot 100% to real estate, or some combination of both

Rentals were so cheap. Impossible to ignore. Excess contribution for US equities diverted to real estate in late 2009/2010. Tough call. In retrospect 2010 most of the equity carnage was over while real estate continued to die. Couldn’t tell back then tho. Just had to make the decision and hope for the best

Regular US index contributions and buying rentals required more cash. Overwhelming number of rentals. Needed more cash. Banks refused to lend. Saved as much as I could but not enough. Downsized to keep buying
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
Also the annual returns that you cited... Do they cover your entire investable portfolio or are those the returns you achieved in the stock market only? Are you including gaines on sale and taxes?
The link is to my workplace retirement accounts. I also have non-workplace retirement accounts. Those returns are from returns achieved in the stock market. I don’t know what my average annual return from my rentals are

I don’t calculate my annual returns which is why I linked to screenshots of my retirement accounts. I’m not good with numbers. Basic arithmetic only. The companies behind my US index investment calculates my returns

I haven’t sold anything so yes, lots of deferred taxes incoming
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
Are you including mark-to-market gains and properties held or only income? If the former how do you account for taxes in you returns.
Lots of deferred taxes incoming. Hold 95% of everything I’ve ever purchased since the 90s. Live off rental income now. Tax filings are like 250 pages. I don’t do them. An accounting firm files for me
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
Regarding stock Investments. I think history shows that staying invested Beat jumping in and out of the market (waiting for downturns) by a wide margin in most scenarios.
Never jump in and out

People do market timing wrong. This is the right way:

LBYM. Jump in, contribute regularly, store excess. When market tanks, jump in deeper w excess. When market recovers, go back to regular contribution, store excess
Financologist wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:48 am
I agree with you that historically the stock market has always come back. The challenge would seem to be picking the moment in a downturn to throw money at the market and the gains goregone while money is held on the sidelines. . I'm not saying there aren't exceptions. . But as you point out in some of your other posts timing the market correctly would seem to be more an exercise of luck and most would be best served staying invested through ups and downs for the highest returns.
Never time the market

Stay invested

When US market inevitably falls, buy more. When US market inevitably recovers go back to normal

Pick a threshold to start increasing buys. Example: market down 20%+ for 3+ months

I’m not sophisticated nor highly intelligent like many posters here. Investing just happens to be a mindless game of rinse and repeat

Best analogy is to increase bets when you are dealt pocket aces, kings or queens. But investing is better because getting pocket aces, kings or queens is an automatic win. US markets always recover. It’s never different this time. Guaranteed windfall
Have you calculated your total return? this would include cash on the sidelines and invested assets.

flaccidsteele
Posts: 286
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:33 am

Financologist wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:10 am
Have you calculated your total return? this would include cash on the sidelines and invested assets.
I wish I could

My math is limited to arithmetic

I have no idea what my total return is. I only know that the 2 custodians of my retirement accounts tell me that my average annual return is 13%+ and 14%+ per year “since inception” (around 2005. And the bulk of my remaining equity holdings is from Berkshire Hathaway class B that I started picking up in the mid-90s)

Anecdotally wife and I are in our 40s. We started work in the mid/late 90s. Non-executive roles. No inheritances. I no longer work. And we have over $5.3m+ NW after 23 years. We took advantage of downturns the way I described

It’s been a good run so far

I’m the guy who can only describe what they did and how they did it, with the only evidence of success being a few million in investments and only flying business class. Otherwise I look like a bum
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

freckles01
Posts: 122
Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2008 4:43 pm

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by freckles01 » Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:51 pm

for taxable account- i used to buy automatically twice a month to total stock and total international market but stopped- can't remember why. i think i was dca'ing and then made a large purchase to negate the twice a month buys.

now i buy once a month but i do admit i try to buy when they are running lower than higher but no matter, buy once a month with any extra money i've accumulated.

Topic Author
Financologist
Posts: 202
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:16 pm

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Financologist » Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:33 am

flaccidsteele wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:33 am
Financologist wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:10 am
Have you calculated your total return? this would include cash on the sidelines and invested assets.
I wish I could

My math is limited to arithmetic

I have no idea what my total return is. I only know that the 2 custodians of my retirement accounts tell me that my average annual return is 13%+ and 14%+ per year “since inception” (around 2005. And the bulk of my remaining equity holdings is from Berkshire Hathaway class B that I started picking up in the mid-90s)

Anecdotally wife and I are in our 40s. We started work in the mid/late 90s. Non-executive roles. No inheritances. I no longer work. And we have over $5.3m+ NW after 23 years. We took advantage of downturns the way I described

It’s been a good run so far

I’m the guy who can only describe what they did and how they did it, with the only evidence of success being a few million in investments and only flying business class. Otherwise I look like a bum
Doesn't sound likely that your $5.3m balance is attributable to "taking advantage of downturns." Two folks with a high savings rate is likely the culprit.

If buying dips worked, then every active fund manager would beat the index. And that ain't happenin'.

flaccidsteele
Posts: 286
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Sat Feb 22, 2020 4:20 pm

Financologist wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:33 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:33 am
Financologist wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 10:10 am
Have you calculated your total return? this would include cash on the sidelines and invested assets.
I wish I could

My math is limited to arithmetic

I have no idea what my total return is. I only know that the 2 custodians of my retirement accounts tell me that my average annual return is 13%+ and 14%+ per year “since inception” (around 2005. And the bulk of my remaining equity holdings is from Berkshire Hathaway class B that I started picking up in the mid-90s)

Anecdotally wife and I are in our 40s. We started work in the mid/late 90s. Non-executive roles. No inheritances. I no longer work. And we have over $5.3m+ NW after 23 years. We took advantage of downturns the way I described

It’s been a good run so far

I’m the guy who can only describe what they did and how they did it, with the only evidence of success being a few million in investments and only flying business class. Otherwise I look like a bum
Doesn't sound likely that your $5.3m balance is attributable to "taking advantage of downturns." Two folks with a high savings rate is likely the culprit.

If buying dips worked, then every active fund manager would beat the index. And that ain't happenin'.
High savings rate definitely helped a lot when we started, but savings have long since been dwarfed by appreciation of assets purchased a long time ago

With regards to every active fund manager: I don’t have customers asking me to sell and return their money during downturns

The US index is beat once the investor buys more during downturns since the US market always recovers. It’s never different this time
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

JKA45
Posts: 23
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:29 am

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by JKA45 » Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:32 am

I'm would say that I'm definitely bi-curious. I only came around to long term investment strategy about 4-5 years ago. At the end of 2018, I was lucky had enough to have about 20% of my investments in cash/FI stuff that I could easily put in the market. Investing while the market was tanking was one of the hardest things I ever had to do, but I had learned my lesson from 2008-2011, where I was a newbie investor and did all the WRONG things. I looked in every hole and crevice to find cash to invest and remember reaching the point where my biggest fear was that I had NOTHING left to invest should the market drop further. Luckily, the market snapped back very quickly and it took about a month or so to recoup all the unrealized losses.

NOW in 2020, I'm starting to feel jittery about trade wars, corona virus and the elections. I'm not a fan of Trump, but I recognize that the prospect of eliminating/reducing some of the tax breaks could have huge implications on the markets. I've already moved into 5% and I'm feeling very tempted to up that to 25%. Can someone please talk some sense into me? Why should I block out the potential for an election downturn?

Wanderingwheelz
Posts: 204
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:52 am

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Wanderingwheelz » Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:40 am

flaccidsteele wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:15 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm
Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
What did the market do while your money was on the sidelines waiting for a crash?
Who said anything about waiting?

When markets are down, I buy more. That’s market timing

Investing is a simple game. Especially when everybody knows that the US stock market always recovers
I would have to guess this person means “rebalancing”, not “buying” since there isn’t the understanding that accumulating cash to buy when markets lose enough value to seem like a good buy is the chosen course of action.

Rebalancing like this person is doing is time tested and proven to be a great strategy to build wealth. Perhaps it’s all semantics?

Triple digit golfer
Posts: 4100
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by Triple digit golfer » Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:46 am

I'm not a market timer. I had been estimating how much we'll be able to invest and then doing quarterly investments to IRAs and taxable. But we ended up with extra money. So now I just invest when we have at least a few thousand dollars available for investing. Chronologically, I fill up the IRAs first.

My 401k is $750 every 2 weeks as per payroll deductions. I have to contribute evenly to get the full match since it is a percentage of each pay periods's payroll, not the annualized salary.

My 401k contributions are the amount of bonds required to keep my overall estimated yearly contributions at 80/20.

If we are light on bonds when doing a taxable investment, I'll still buy equities, then exchange equities to bonds in my 401k or rollover IRA. Typically it really doesn't matter much because our yearly contributions are only about 5% of our portfolio value these days.

flaccidsteele
Posts: 286
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by flaccidsteele » Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:16 am

Wanderingwheelz wrote:
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:40 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:15 am
Financologist wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:21 am
flaccidsteele wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:06 pm
Financologist wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:53 pm
Are you a closet market-timer?
I'm a market timer

Not in the closet

When markets are down, I buy more. That's market timing

Posters often talk about AA/diversification/etc as risk management, but what they mean is volatility management

Nothing to do with risk

Downturns have no risk. US stock market always recovers. It's never different this time.

Price decline has burned off risk. Buying during a downturn is the most risk-free activity available

Riskier to stay the course today than it is to buy when going through a crash
What did the market do while your money was on the sidelines waiting for a crash?
Who said anything about waiting?

When markets are down, I buy more. That’s market timing

Investing is a simple game. Especially when everybody knows that the US stock market always recovers
I would have to guess this person means “rebalancing”, not “buying” since there isn’t the understanding that accumulating cash to buy when markets lose enough value to seem like a good buy is the chosen course of action.

Rebalancing like this person is doing is time tested and proven to be a great strategy to build wealth. Perhaps it’s all semantics?
That makes sense

Buying more during a downturn = Rebalancing during a market downturn = market timing

I don’t rebalance based on time (eg. Once a year) or based asset allocation (eg. When equities go over a specific %), but based on the market
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat

EdNorton
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:11 am

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by EdNorton » Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:33 am

EdNorton wrote:
Thu Jan 16, 2020 9:32 am
I am now. Should have been one in late September of 2018. Went from 60/40 to 40/60. :sharebeer
Should have gone 5/95. Oh well, will wait to rebalance.
:sharebeer
Outside a dog, a book is man's best friend, inside a dog, it's too dark to read - Groucho

JKA45
Posts: 23
Joined: Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:29 am

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

Post by JKA45 » Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:43 pm

well then.... luckily I had some stops in place which all executed on Monday. I'm now sitting on about 25% cash, which puts me at ease despite the fact that I still have significant exposure. Tomorrow should be very interesting, I wouldn't be surprised to see another massive down day because of the specter of a weekend.

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