WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
uberaeth
Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:29 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by uberaeth » Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:28 am

rascott wrote:
Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:49 am
guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:55 am
This went down to close to 31M during start of January with large unload. Please seem to adding in IRAs in January, now back up above $40M AUM.

One person in this forum bought in with $400k in one day, filled well close to NAV.

Wisdomtree is very positive about this ETF...
Wonder what % of this fund is owned by this board?

We've got one person alone that owns 1% of it..... and a bunch of others that have certainly bought decent amounts.
I have about 24k across all of my accounts.

Topic Author
kevinf
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by kevinf » Sat Feb 08, 2020 2:23 pm

I'm holding about 0.1% of it I think :P

aristotelian
Posts: 6871
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by aristotelian » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:34 am

I did a backtest to 1972 of 60/40 (10 Year Treasury) and 100% US Stock, then made my own spreadsheet with a column with an approximation of NTSX, which I calculated simply as 1.5*(60/40). I wanted to see if a 90/60 portfolio ever would have done worse than 100% stocks. It looks like 1994 is the only year that NTSX went down more than 100% stocks (-4.47% vs -.17%). Aside from that year, the 90/60 portfolio would have accomplished its goal of reducing volatility during bear markets while matching 100% stocks in bull markets.

60%40% 100% Stock NTSX Inflation
1972 11.52% 17.62% 17.28% 3.41%
1973 -9.60% -18.18% -14.40% 8.71%
1974 -15.07% -27.81% -22.61% 12.34%
1975 24.90% 37.82% 37.35% 6.94%
1976 22.00% 26.47% 33.00% 4.86%
1977 -1.80% -3.36% -2.70% 6.70%
1978 4.78% 8.45% 7.17% 9.02%
1979 15.28% 24.25% 22.92% 13.29%
1980 19.38% 33.15% 29.07% 12.52%
1981 -0.38% -4.15% -0.57% 8.92%
1982 28.13% 20.50% 42.20% 3.83%
1983 14.51% 22.66% 21.77% 3.79%
1984 7.26% 2.19% 10.89% 3.95%
1985 30.70% 31.27% 46.05% 3.80%
1986 17.28% 14.57% 25.92% 1.10%
1987 0.51% 2.61% 0.77% 4.43%
1988 13.15% 17.32% 19.73% 4.42%
1989 24.01% 28.12% 36.02% 4.65%
1990 -0.57% -6.08% -0.86% 6.11%
1991 27.00% 32.39% 40.50% 3.06%
1992 8.36% 9.11% 12.54% 2.90%
1993 11.56% 10.62% 17.34% 2.75%
1994 -2.98% -0.17% -4.47% 2.67%
1995 31.69% 35.79% 47.54% 2.54%
1996 12.58% 20.96% 18.87% 3.32%
1997 23.38% 30.99% 35.07% 1.70%
1998 19.81% 23.26% 29.72% 1.61%
1999 11.16% 23.81% 16.74% 2.68%
2000 0.57% -10.57% 0.86% 3.39%
2001 -4.42% -10.97% -6.63% 1.55%
2002 -6.40% -20.96% -9.60% 2.38%
2003 18.87% 31.35% 28.31% 1.88%
2004 9.31% 12.52% 13.97% 3.26%
2005 4.79% 5.98% 7.19% 3.42%
2006 10.18% 15.51% 15.27% 2.54%
2007 7.46% 5.49% 11.19% 4.08%
2008 -14.01% -37.04% -21.02% 0.09%
2009 13.15% 28.70% 19.73% 2.72%
2010 13.42% 17.09% 20.13% 1.50%
2011 7.07% 0.96% 10.61% 2.96%
2012 10.84% 16.25% 16.26% 1.74%
2013 16.58% 33.35% 24.87% 1.50%
2014 11.71% 12.43% 17.57% 0.76%
2015 0.62% 0.29% 0.93% 0.73%
2016 7.92% 12.53% 11.88% 2.07%
2017 13.59% 21.05% 20.39% 2.11%
2018 -2.76% -5.26% -4.14% 1.91%
2019 21.60% 30.65% 32.40% 2.29%

LincolnTunnel
Posts: 18
Joined: Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:50 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by LincolnTunnel » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:26 pm

Is there an equivalent to this fund that uses an international index in place of the S&P 500?

TheJoelfather
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:49 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by TheJoelfather » Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:34 pm

LincolnTunnel wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 12:26 pm
Is there an equivalent to this fund that uses an international index in place of the S&P 500?
Not equivalent, but RPAR accounts for international exposure (among other things).

Aaabbbccc
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:54 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by Aaabbbccc » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:04 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:34 am
I did a backtest to 1972 of 60/40 (10 Year Treasury) and 100% US Stock, then made my own spreadsheet with a column with an approximation of NTSX, which I calculated simply as 1.5*(60/40). I wanted to see if a 90/60 portfolio ever would have done worse than 100% stocks. It looks like 1994 is the only year that NTSX went down more than 100% stocks (-4.47% vs -.17%). Aside from that year, the 90/60 portfolio would have accomplished its goal of reducing volatility during bear markets while matching 100% stocks in bull markets.

60%40% 100% Stock NTSX Inflation
1972 11.52% 17.62% 17.28% 3.41%
1973 -9.60% -18.18% -14.40% 8.71%
1974 -15.07% -27.81% -22.61% 12.34%
1975 24.90% 37.82% 37.35% 6.94%
1976 22.00% 26.47% 33.00% 4.86%
1977 -1.80% -3.36% -2.70% 6.70%
1978 4.78% 8.45% 7.17% 9.02%
1979 15.28% 24.25% 22.92% 13.29%
1980 19.38% 33.15% 29.07% 12.52%
1981 -0.38% -4.15% -0.57% 8.92%
1982 28.13% 20.50% 42.20% 3.83%
1983 14.51% 22.66% 21.77% 3.79%
1984 7.26% 2.19% 10.89% 3.95%
1985 30.70% 31.27% 46.05% 3.80%
1986 17.28% 14.57% 25.92% 1.10%
1987 0.51% 2.61% 0.77% 4.43%
1988 13.15% 17.32% 19.73% 4.42%
1989 24.01% 28.12% 36.02% 4.65%
1990 -0.57% -6.08% -0.86% 6.11%
1991 27.00% 32.39% 40.50% 3.06%
1992 8.36% 9.11% 12.54% 2.90%
1993 11.56% 10.62% 17.34% 2.75%
1994 -2.98% -0.17% -4.47% 2.67%
1995 31.69% 35.79% 47.54% 2.54%
1996 12.58% 20.96% 18.87% 3.32%
1997 23.38% 30.99% 35.07% 1.70%
1998 19.81% 23.26% 29.72% 1.61%
1999 11.16% 23.81% 16.74% 2.68%
2000 0.57% -10.57% 0.86% 3.39%
2001 -4.42% -10.97% -6.63% 1.55%
2002 -6.40% -20.96% -9.60% 2.38%
2003 18.87% 31.35% 28.31% 1.88%
2004 9.31% 12.52% 13.97% 3.26%
2005 4.79% 5.98% 7.19% 3.42%
2006 10.18% 15.51% 15.27% 2.54%
2007 7.46% 5.49% 11.19% 4.08%
2008 -14.01% -37.04% -21.02% 0.09%
2009 13.15% 28.70% 19.73% 2.72%
2010 13.42% 17.09% 20.13% 1.50%
2011 7.07% 0.96% 10.61% 2.96%
2012 10.84% 16.25% 16.26% 1.74%
2013 16.58% 33.35% 24.87% 1.50%
2014 11.71% 12.43% 17.57% 0.76%
2015 0.62% 0.29% 0.93% 0.73%
2016 7.92% 12.53% 11.88% 2.07%
2017 13.59% 21.05% 20.39% 2.11%
2018 -2.76% -5.26% -4.14% 1.91%
2019 21.60% 30.65% 32.40% 2.29%
But how much more room do we have for rates to drop? Which is where you are levered in NTSX

User avatar
nisiprius
Advisory Board
Posts: 40021
Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 9:33 am
Location: The terrestrial, globular, planetary hunk of matter, flattened at the poles, is my abode.--O. Henry

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by nisiprius » Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:42 pm

Aaabbbccc wrote:
Thu Feb 13, 2020 6:04 pm
But how much more room do we have for rates to drop?
About this much.

Image

(Ten-year Treasury rate).

Actually more than that, now that the myth that interest rates can't possibly fall below zero has been exploded.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

guyinlaw
Posts: 381
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by guyinlaw » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:26 am

Discussion about NTSX on Bloomberg

https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1229794182220406785

Image

Image
Reminder to myself "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a marketplace decline, of 50%, 2-3 times a century, you deserve the mediocre result you will get"-Charlie Munger

caklim00
Posts: 2047
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 10:09 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by caklim00 » Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:11 pm

So, after seeing a post about rolling T-Bills at Schwab I decided to give them a call. I talked with someone on both the Fixed Income side and then the futures side. Here is what they told me:
1) 90% of the value of T-Bills serve as the cash margin requirement
2) Schwab Money market fund will serve as the cash requirement

Something still seems off though...

EDIT: I called back since I always like a second opinion lol. What I wrote above is definitely wrong. Its doable but creates a margin loan this way (for both money market or t-bills) so not worth it. Oh well.

rascott
Posts: 1433
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by rascott » Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:23 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:26 am
Discussion about NTSX on Bloomberg

https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1229794182220406785

Image

Image
Fascinating thoughts why it's not taking off.... because it further eliminates the need for the advisor. So advisors not using it.

I'm continuing to buy buy buy

HawkeyePierce
Posts: 931
Joined: Tue Mar 05, 2019 10:29 pm
Location: Colorado

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by HawkeyePierce » Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:31 pm

rascott wrote:
Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:23 pm
Fascinating thoughts why it's not taking off.... because it further eliminates the need for the advisor. So advisors not using it.

I'm continuing to buy buy buy
+1 I bought another $10k today.

guyinlaw
Posts: 381
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by guyinlaw » Fri Feb 21, 2020 3:49 pm

On twitter, both Rick Ferri and Paul Merriman did not recommend NTSX.
It may have provided a similar return to the S&P 500 over the time period measured. However, since it is 90% in equity and 10% in leveraged bonds, there is no saying if this will continue. Should stocks fall because interest rates rise, you will find a big downward surprise!
I would not use it to replace the 10% position we recommend for the S&P 500. I hope investors will carefully read the information that WisdomTree provides—especially under Risk Management. The strategy has not attracted much money but it also took a long time for the S&P 500 to attract money when it came out in 1976. It will be interesting to see if professionals agree with your conclusion.
https://www.wisdomtree.com/-/media/us-m ... sx_faq.pdf

I personally have replaced most of my VTI with NTSX.. Currently I am adding AVUS (Avantis Russell 3000 ETF) instead of VTI/NTSX, thinking SP500 is too top heavy.. I do hold a few treasury futures (2y and 5y) to get the NTSX effect overall..
Reminder to myself "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a marketplace decline, of 50%, 2-3 times a century, you deserve the mediocre result you will get"-Charlie Munger

Topic Author
kevinf
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by kevinf » Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:59 pm

NTSX is doing well in the dip... It is now 4 figures ahead of what was a 50/50 VTI/NTSX portfolio split in mid-January. Unfortunately, the dip happened a few days before I planned to transfer money into my settlement fund so I may miss out on the sale :annoyed

occambogle
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:58 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by occambogle » Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:01 am

Uncorrelated wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:42 am
crystalbank wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:14 pm
Uncorrelated wrote:
Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:34 pm
Thanks for the insight. I agree that 2% outperformance per year almost sounds too good to be true. But at the same time I'm trying to understand the scenario where NTSX might underperform a 90/10 AA. From my limited understanding, it is possible to underperform a 90/10 AA but the downside might be very limited since only the bond part of the portfolio is levered (along with a cash cushion). I'm also curious how this fund will hold up if the interest rates ever start going back up.

Even if it performs similar to 90/10 AA, it's a no brainer if proves to be significantly less volatile. But I'm pretty sure there is something I'm missing because that sounds like free lunch.
It would have underperformed during periods of rising rates. Between 1950 and 1980 it would have underperformed 90/10 nearly every year by about 0.30% per year before expenses (0.2%) and friction costs (??%).
One thing I'm trying to get my head around re: the 10% > 60% leveraged treasuries aspect of NTSX.

if we put the 90% S&P500 part aside, I'm trying to think of situations where you could "lose" more than the 10%. I think I understand that because of the leverage there are situations where 90/60 could underperform 90/10, but are there realistic situations where the result could be that the 10% component of NTSX ends up creating losses of more than the value of that 10%? If bond yields went negative like Germany etc?

MoneyMarathon
Posts: 664
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 3:38 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by MoneyMarathon » Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:14 am

occambogle wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:01 am
but are there realistic situations where the result could be that the 10% component of NTSX ends up creating losses of more than the value of that 10%?
Rebalancing allows any underperforming component, no matter how small, not only to produce larger losses than its original allocation amount, but to bring the whole portfolio to nearly nothing. So the worst case is, e.g., the bonds lose half their value, rebalance, the bonds lose half their value, rebalance, the bonds lose half their value, rebalance, etc. This would imply that the long term yields were rising rapidly (people were selling bonds, but they weren't being bought unless at higher long term yields). The analogy wouldn't be current German bonds (with some negative rates) but rather something like the Wiemar republic where the currency was being devalued so fast the yield had to go up or bonds would go unsold.

Not sure how realistic it is. It might never happen in another 200+ years for USD, like it hasn't in the first 200. More realistically, if inflation starts going up a lot, the Fed will get ahead of that by raising rates (using historical precedent for that action under Volcker), and the bonds will suffer in the interim. After inflation's more controlled, the bonds will gain over time as yields normalize and go down again. It would at first be fairly bad for several years, then be quite good, if someone could hold out long enough without tinkering.

NTSX doesn't have an outsized bond allocation, so in a 1970s scenario, stocks would still drive most of the volatility and price changes, even as the bonds represented a drag in most of that time period.

aristotelian
Posts: 6871
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by aristotelian » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:02 am

occambogle wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:01 am
One thing I'm trying to get my head around re: the 10% > 60% leveraged treasuries aspect of NTSX.

if we put the 90% S&P500 part aside, I'm trying to think of situations where you could "lose" more than the 10%. I think I understand that because of the leverage there are situations where 90/60 could underperform 90/10, but are there realistic situations where the result could be that the 10% component of NTSX ends up creating losses of more than the value of that 10%? If bond yields went negative like Germany etc?
If I understand correctly, the 6X bonds would have to produce about -16% total return for that to happen. Going back to 1972, the worst year for 10YT is -10.1%.

occambogle
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:58 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by occambogle » Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:44 am

MoneyMarathon wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:14 am
The analogy wouldn't be current German bonds (with some negative rates) but rather something like the Wiemar republic.....
....Not sure how realistic it is. It might never happen in another 200+ years for USD, like it hasn't in the first 200.
aristotelian wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:02 am
If I understand correctly, the 6X bonds would have to produce about -16% total return for that to happen. Going back to 1972, the worst year for 10YT is -10.1%.
Thanks, I figured it was probably only under very extreme circumstances, and I think for me this falls under "if it were to happen I'll have bigger worries than my bond performance...."

MoneyMarathon
Posts: 664
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 3:38 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by MoneyMarathon » Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:07 am

aristotelian wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:02 am
If I understand correctly, the 6X bonds would have to produce about -16% total return for that to happen. Going back to 1972, the worst year for 10YT is -10.1%.
This doesn't account for the leverage in the position and the cost of that leverage. There is a straight 5 years of annual losses for leveraged 10-year treasuries, from 1977 to 1981, which contains the worst year, which seems to be 1980 (not the 2009 year, when it was down -10.1% but cash was cheap at 0.16%) and maximum drawdown historically since 1972.

In that period, the original 1/6th that bought the 6x position would be lost a few times over with rebalancing. (Nominally. Even worse in real terms.)

caklim00
Posts: 2047
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 10:09 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by caklim00 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:48 pm

Most of the posts recently have been really focused on only domestic large cap. Entire portfolios geared around NTSX, PSLDX, EDV, etc. I'm surprissed there has been less of a focus on International.

I like the idea of NTSX, but since I'm not willing to give up my tilts or International split I decided to go the futures route: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=304904 Today, the futures purchased yesterday have offset the losses from the equity I purchased yesterday (very hedgefundie like). Fingers crossed diversification, slight leverage, and tilting pay off long term :wink:

occambogle
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:58 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by occambogle » Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:53 pm

caklim00 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:48 pm
I like the idea of NTSX, but since I'm not willing to give up my tilts or International split I decided to go the futures route:
What are you holding for international, out of interest?

caklim00
Posts: 2047
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 10:09 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by caklim00 » Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:07 pm

occambogle wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:53 pm
caklim00 wrote:
Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:48 pm
I like the idea of NTSX, but since I'm not willing to give up my tilts or International split I decided to go the futures route:
What are you holding for international, out of interest?
ACWI in 401k (similar to veu), iscf (developed multifactor small), avdv (dev scv), and dfevx (dfa EM value) in prior company 401k. I also have some unrealized gains in veu, vss, and fndc in taxable.

ACWI and iscf are my biggest holdings. I try to do 75% developed 25% EM for my international funds that split between em and dev. Bought a chunk of dfevx yesterday.

crystalbank
Posts: 247
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2017 12:21 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by crystalbank » Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:37 pm

Bought some more today. I noticed that market orders over $25k value, I'm getting very close to NAV. If market drops further, I'm going to TLH other funds into this fund tomorrow.

occambogle
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:58 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by occambogle » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:51 am

How do we feel NTSX is behaving/performing in the current market downturn? As expected, or different than expected?
I've been watching the numbers the last few days and it's been interesting and it seems to be having less downturn. But NTSX lower volume compared to S&P500/VOO etc seems to impose some delay on changes when you try to watch realtime making it a little difficult to follow.
Does anyone know a good site where you can overlay NTSX and VOO on the same graph for the last day or week or even realtime?

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 3403
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by watchnerd » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:57 am

occambogle wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:51 am
Does anyone know a good site where you can overlay NTSX and VOO on the same graph for the last day or week or even realtime?
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=12
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

guyinlaw
Posts: 381
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:57 am

occambogle wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:51 am
How do we feel NTSX is behaving/performing in the current market downturn? As expected, or different than expected?
I've been watching the numbers the last few days and it's been interesting and it seems to be having less downturn. But NTSX lower volume compared to S&P500/VOO etc seems to impose some delay on changes when you try to watch realtime making it a little difficult to follow.
Does anyone know a good site where you can overlay NTSX and VOO on the same graph for the last day or week or even realtime?
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... on2_2=100

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/NTSX#ey ... 0In19XX0=
Reminder to myself "If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a marketplace decline, of 50%, 2-3 times a century, you deserve the mediocre result you will get"-Charlie Munger

aristotelian
Posts: 6871
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:05 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by aristotelian » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:59 am

occambogle wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:51 am
How do we feel NTSX is behaving/performing in the current market downturn? As expected, or different than expected?
I've been watching the numbers the last few days and it's been interesting and it seems to be having less downturn. But NTSX lower volume compared to S&P500/VOO etc seems to impose some delay on changes when you try to watch realtime making it a little difficult to follow.
Does anyone know a good site where you can overlay NTSX and VOO on the same graph for the last day or week or even realtime?
Yes, NTSX seems to be holding up fairly well with bond yields falling. USMV also mitigating losses as expected. Here is Yahoo Finance last 30 days:

https://imgur.com/a/5XY6Sfp

occambogle
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:58 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by occambogle » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:11 am

Thanks all. PV doesn't seem to work well for very recent data (1 day etc). The Yahoo Finance link is exactly what I am looking for.....

garlandwhizzer
Posts: 2615
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 3:42 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by garlandwhizzer » Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:45 pm

occambogle wrote:

Does anyone know a good site where you can overlay NTSX and VOO on the same graph for the last day or week or even realtime?
NTSX uses 6X leveraged bond exposure plus 90% equity aiming for 90/60 balancer fund rather than the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio without leverage. VOO is not an appropriate comparison because it is 100% equity, not a balanced fund at all. The appropriate comparison is VBIAX, Vanguard's Balanced Index Fund TSM60/TBM40. As expected in this downturn VBIAX has lost less than NTSX. 90/60, the level that Wisdom Tree aims at for NTSX, magnifies returns in both directions in response to market action. When markets go up it juices returns especially when as recently both stocks and bonds went up dramatically. When the market goes down it increases losses relative to an un-leveraged standard 60/40 portfolio. There is no magic place using leverage where less risk gets more reward. It all depends on Mr. Market's mood at the moment.

Garland Whizzer

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 3403
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by watchnerd » Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:57 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:45 pm
occambogle wrote:

Does anyone know a good site where you can overlay NTSX and VOO on the same graph for the last day or week or even realtime?
NTSX uses 6X leveraged bond exposure plus 90% equity aiming for 90/60 balancer fund rather than the traditional 60/40 balanced portfolio without leverage. VOO is not an appropriate comparison because it is 100% equity, not a balanced fund at all. The appropriate comparison is VBIAX, Vanguard's Balanced Index Fund TSM60/TBM40. As expected in this downturn VBIAX has lost less than NTSX. 90/60, the level that Wisdom Tree aims at for NTSX, magnifies returns in both directions in response to market action. When markets go up it juices returns especially when as recently both stocks and bonds went up dramatically. When the market goes down it increases losses relative to an un-leveraged standard 60/40 portfolio. There is no magic place using leverage where less risk gets more reward. It all depends on Mr. Market's mood at the moment.

Garland Whizzer
NTSX is trailing VBIAX YTD pretty significantly:

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=12

As you would expect...
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

MoneyMarathon
Posts: 664
Joined: Sun Sep 30, 2012 3:38 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by MoneyMarathon » Thu Feb 27, 2020 4:21 pm

garlandwhizzer wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:45 pm
The appropriate comparison is VBIAX, Vanguard's Balanced Index Fund TSM60/TBM40. As expected in this downturn VBIAX has lost less than NTSX. 90/60, the level that Wisdom Tree aims at for NTSX, magnifies returns in both directions in response to market action.
We know that particular result without looking (as you say, in a downturn, it's expected that a fund with 90% stocks might do worse than a fund with 60% stocks, especially when one is very similar to the other fund apart from leverage).

I'm not sure what makes this an appropriate comparison. Appropriate for what?

70% NTSX / 30% BND (bond) has had higher returns than VBIAX with lower volatility.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion3_1=30
garlandwhizzer wrote:
Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:45 pm
There is no magic place using leverage where less risk gets more reward.
NTSX has outperformed 90% VOO (S&P) / 10% EDV (extended duration treasuries) and 90% VOO / 10% VGLT (long duration treasuries) with lower volatility.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... tion4_3=10

occambogle
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:58 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by occambogle » Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:48 am

I don't really know and get confused by 60/40 comparisons, because those are based on using it as a portion of your portfolio, and then you have the variable of what it is paired with in the "freed up space". I look at it in terms of return and volatility in itself, and maybe I am wrong, but I see it as having:

PV Link

a) Better returns with lower volatility than 100% S&P500
b) Better returns and a little bit more volatility than 80% S&P500 / 20% Total Bond
c) Significantly better returns, with more volatility than straight 60/40

Over the last 5 days it has indeed suffered less losses than 100% S&P500:

Yahoo Finance Link


So if it gets better returns overall than S&P500, and suffers less in a downturn, that seems to me like a pretty sound straight swap for an S&P500 portion in a portfolio.
For example if you were to straight-swap the 60 portion of a 60/40 portfolio for 60 NTSX / 40 BND, you'd get this:

PV Link

Where P1 = 100 NTSX, P2 = 60/40, P3 = 60 NTSX / 40 bond. And that would give you better returns, lower volatility, and lower max drawdown than 60/40

Topic Author
kevinf
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by kevinf » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:31 am

Kinda kicking myself for not committing to 100% NTSX in my ROTH (formerly 100% VTI) at the beginning of the year now. :moneybag

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 3403
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by watchnerd » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:35 am

kevinf wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:31 am
Kinda kicking myself for not committing to 100% NTSX in my ROTH (formerly 100% VTI) at the beginning of the year now. :moneybag
Why kicking yourself?

They're within 2% of each other.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... e&state=12
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

Topic Author
kevinf
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by kevinf » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:39 am

Because I had looked into it and liked the fund, but was still hesitant to do a total swap. So I missed out on the benefit of NTSX for this correction on half my Roth. Not a huge thing, and I wouldn't call it a mistake... but if I could rewind I'd go 100% NTSX at the beginning of the year instead.
Last edited by kevinf on Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

occambogle
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:58 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by occambogle » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:40 am

kevinf wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:31 am
Kinda kicking myself for not committing to 100% NTSX in my ROTH (formerly 100% VTI) at the beginning of the year now. :moneybag
I sold all my VTI a few days ago for cash at 161, but that was because I planned to switch it anyway to NTSX for the long-term, and there was short-term capital loss. Now I’m thinking I’ll wait to reinvest it in NTSX as I just don’t see a bottom yet. That makes me a market-timer and currently I’m ok living with that shame :-)
But still trying to work out what the best pairing is. EDV, UCIT and USMV seem interesting but I haven’t come to any conclusion yet, and want a bit of international.

Topic Author
kevinf
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by kevinf » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:49 am

occambogle wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:40 am
I sold all my VTI a few days ago for cash at 161, but that was because I planned to switch it anyway to NTSX for the long-term, and there was short-term capital loss. Now I’m thinking I’ll wait to reinvest it in NTSX as I just don’t see a bottom yet. That makes me a market-timer and currently I’m ok living with that shame :-)
But still trying to work out what the best pairing is. EDV, UCIT and USMV seem interesting but I haven’t come to any conclusion yet, and want a bit of international.
I'd probably DCA into NTSX over the next month or three if I were in your shoes. I'm sticking with my original plan to let 50/50 VTI/NTSX ride for the remainder of the year and then decide if I want to go 100% or not. I kind of like 50/50 to hedge against possible failure modes for NTSX, but I've been able to put away more in my taxable lately so I may just go all in with the Roth and not worry about it. If something does happen that bombs NTSX out I'm thinking it won't be so quick that I couldn't reasonably make an adjustment/swap at that point. I can't really think of anything that would cause a sudden, total, unrecoverable failure of the fund.

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 3403
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by watchnerd » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:52 am

kevinf wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:49 am
occambogle wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:40 am
I sold all my VTI a few days ago for cash at 161, but that was because I planned to switch it anyway to NTSX for the long-term, and there was short-term capital loss. Now I’m thinking I’ll wait to reinvest it in NTSX as I just don’t see a bottom yet. That makes me a market-timer and currently I’m ok living with that shame :-)
But still trying to work out what the best pairing is. EDV, UCIT and USMV seem interesting but I haven’t come to any conclusion yet, and want a bit of international.
I'd probably DCA into NTSX over the next month or three if I were in your shoes. I'm sticking with my original plan to let 50/50 VTI/NTSX ride for the remainder of the year and then decide if I want to go 100% or not. I kind of like 50/50 to hedge against possible failure modes for NTSX, but I've been able to put away more in my taxable lately so I may just go all in with the Roth and not worry about it. If something does happen that bombs NTSX out I'm thinking it won't be so quick that I couldn't reasonably make an adjustment/swap at that point. I can't really think of anything that would cause a sudden, total, unrecoverable failure of the fund.
DCA is just short changing your time in the market, which you should care about if you're holding for the long term.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

lexor
Posts: 661
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 10:32 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by lexor » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:20 am

watchnerd wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:52 am
kevinf wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:49 am
occambogle wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:40 am
I sold all my VTI a few days ago for cash at 161, but that was because I planned to switch it anyway to NTSX for the long-term, and there was short-term capital loss. Now I’m thinking I’ll wait to reinvest it in NTSX as I just don’t see a bottom yet. That makes me a market-timer and currently I’m ok living with that shame :-)
But still trying to work out what the best pairing is. EDV, UCIT and USMV seem interesting but I haven’t come to any conclusion yet, and want a bit of international.
I'd probably DCA into NTSX over the next month or three if I were in your shoes. I'm sticking with my original plan to let 50/50 VTI/NTSX ride for the remainder of the year and then decide if I want to go 100% or not. I kind of like 50/50 to hedge against possible failure modes for NTSX, but I've been able to put away more in my taxable lately so I may just go all in with the Roth and not worry about it. If something does happen that bombs NTSX out I'm thinking it won't be so quick that I couldn't reasonably make an adjustment/swap at that point. I can't really think of anything that would cause a sudden, total, unrecoverable failure of the fund.
DCA is just short changing your time in the market, which you should care about if you're holding for the long term.
I'm talking about DCA from VTI to NTSX. So DCA is a bet the market will recover short term I'd think. Doesn't the main benefit of NTSX come during downturns? And during expansions it should match or even under-perform a little?
“The miracle of compounding returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounding costs.” -Mr. John C. Bogle

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 3403
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by watchnerd » Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:50 am

lexor wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:20 am


I'm talking about DCA from VTI to NTSX. So DCA is a bet the market will recover short term I'd think. Doesn't the main benefit of NTSX come during downturns? And during expansions it should match or even under-perform a little?
You seem to think DCA will let you time the market.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

Topic Author
kevinf
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Aug 05, 2019 11:35 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by kevinf » Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:47 pm

lexor wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 9:20 am
I'm talking about DCA from VTI to NTSX. So DCA is a bet the market will recover short term I'd think. Doesn't the main benefit of NTSX come during downturns? And during expansions it should match or even under-perform a little?
That's been my experience with it so far year-to-date. The amount NTSX trails VTI during a bull run is marginal, and it takes a significant lead in the dips and VTI takes a good while to catch back up.

It's been a very brief test so far however, so take that with a grain of salt. I think the theory behind NTSX is sound, so I should have just went all in this year :P

occambogle
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2019 4:58 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by occambogle » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:06 pm

kevinf wrote:
Fri Feb 28, 2020 1:47 pm
The amount NTSX trails VTI during a bull run is marginal, and it takes a significant lead in the dips and VTI takes a good while to catch back up.
It's been a very brief test so far however, so take that with a grain of salt. I think the theory behind NTSX is sound, so I should have just went all in this year :P
Seems to be so, at least during the last week's chaos....

NTSX vs VTI last 7-days

User avatar
watchnerd
Posts: 3403
Joined: Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:18 am
Location: Seattle, WA, USA

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by watchnerd » Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:09 pm

I don't understand the logic of comparing a balanced leveraged fund vs TSM.

You might as well compare it to the NASDAQ.
70% Global Market Weight Equities | 15% Long Treasuries 15% short TIPS & cash || RSU + ESPP

garlandwhizzer
Posts: 2615
Joined: Fri Aug 06, 2010 3:42 pm

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by garlandwhizzer » Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:05 pm

watchnerd wrote:

I don't understand the logic of comparing a balanced leveraged fund vs TSM.
1+

NTSX is Wisdom Tree's new and "improved" balanced fund, 90/60 due to 6X bond leverage. It is not 100% stock index fund and a comparison to 100% TSM is an apples to oranges comparison. The standard US balanced fund is 60/40 for comparison purposes not 100/0. The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, VBIAX 60/40, has unequivocally preserved its value better than NTSX in this recent severe downturn.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/ntsx/charts

In down markets 90% equity and 6X bond leverage will not outperform 60/40 without leverage. It's that simple. The losses in bear markets come from equity and 90% equity has 50% more stock and therefore 50% more losses than 60% stock. The 6X leverage in bonds cannot make up for those increased losses because only 10% of the portfolio is allocated in that direction.

I agree than 90/60 is an interesting concept that is expected to outperform in bull markets but in corrections or bear markets like this, it is expected to underperform which it has done. NTSX's increased expected return relative to 60/40 depends on increasing downside risk in bear markets. For non-risk averse investors it is something to consider with a portion of the equity portfolio. For many of us, tolerating the losses of 60% equity in down markets is hard enough without adding more.

Garland Whizzer

lexor
Posts: 661
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 10:32 am

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

Post by lexor » Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:44 pm

Is there any way NTSX could be callable or act in a similar manner (for example the bond futures actually causing a complete loss of the 10% of the principle they use and possibly going negative). Similar to this article described for margin
https://www.barrons.com/articles/margin ... 1582914324
“The miracle of compounding returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounding costs.” -Mr. John C. Bogle

Post Reply