U.S. stocks in free fall

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stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:08 pm

clip651 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:03 pm
Maybe it's time for you to start a small caps or SP 600 in free fall, soaring, or whatever you want to call your thread ... this is the US stocks thread.
?? The S&P 600 comprises of US stocks in the most quintessential sense. The S&P 500 is actually more of an international index since a lot of it's revenues come from overseas even though they are US companies the customer base is significantly international.

If anything most appropriately belongs here in the US Stocks it is the S&P 600 NOT the S&P 500. Just for the record. :oops:

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:10 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:36 pm
My question.. if the domestic economy is so good then why are Small Caps performing so poorly and failing to exit a bear market after a year and a half.
I don't know what you're talking about. According to Morningstar, from 2018 until now, VB is up 11.48%. I wouldn't call double-digit growth over two years very poor performance. Yes, it's trailed the S&P 500 a lot, but the same thing happened in the late 1990s right before large-caps tanked and small-caps zoomed up.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:14 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:10 pm
I don't know what you're talking about. According to Morningstar, from 2018 until now, VB is up 11.48%.
IJS S&P 600 Value, 2018 to date has returned 1.48% real (even lower now since it's been declining since end of December 2019):

https://tinyurl.com/sw6g4h7

I would consider that poor given the S&P 500 is going to the moon. I do understand other asset classes can under perform, that is the nature of diversification but my surprise is with the level of divergence.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:26 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:10 pm
I don't know what you're talking about. According to Morningstar, from 2018 until now, VB is up 11.48%.
IJS S&P 600 Value, 2018 to date has returned 1.48% real (even lower now since it's been declining since end of December 2019):

https://tinyurl.com/sw6g4h7

I would consider that poor given the S&P 500 is going to the moon. I do understand other asset classes can under perform, that is the nature of diversification but my surprise is with the level of divergence.
It's not new at all. From 1997-1999, large-caps returned 27.53% annualized, but small-caps returned 14.32% (nominal returns).
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

clip651
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clip651 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:27 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:08 pm
clip651 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:03 pm
Maybe it's time for you to start a small caps or SP 600 in free fall, soaring, or whatever you want to call your thread ... this is the US stocks thread.
?? The S&P 600 comprises of US stocks in the most quintessential sense. The S&P 500 is actually more of an international index since a lot of it's revenues come from overseas even though they are US companies the customer base is significantly international.

If anything most appropriately belongs here in the US Stocks it is the S&P 600 NOT the S&P 500. Just for the record. :oops:
"US stocks" in general on this site (as part of the three fund portfolio, for example) is typically understood as something along the lines of what's in the total US stock market index. SP 500 isn't total US stock, but it tracks it pretty closely, and so if folks have that available in their 401k and not TSM, for instance, many choose to just use something that tracks the SP 500 instead. Some will add a completion index if they want to include the small caps. And the SP 500 is commonly reported, so it's easy to discuss that as shorthand for how the US stock market is doing, so many posts on this thread (not necessarily by me) reference how the SP 500 is doing on a given day. Pretty much what this thread is for.

SP 600 is a small cap index, and therefore just a portion of US stocks in comparison to total stock. Of course, some people choose to tilt to small cap or small cap value, so they may follow those indexes as well, or instead, if they are watching market movements.

If you want to make the US vs international composition argument about the SP 500, there are plenty of other threads on that.

TropikThunder
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TropikThunder » Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:50 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:36 pm
The action on the ground signifies a risk off sentiment for whatever reason as investors shy away from truly domestic equities.
Sounds like someone spends too much time watching CNBC. Maybe we could use this thread to play “Pundit Bingo”? :P

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:30 pm

TropikThunder wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:50 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:36 pm
The action on the ground signifies a risk off sentiment for whatever reason as investors shy away from truly domestic equities.
Sounds like someone spends too much time watching CNBC. Maybe we could use this thread to play “Pundit Bingo”? :P
Yeah wow, I get a headache reading some of this stuff.

I'm glad I've been buying and holding since 1990. :sharebeer

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:44 pm

OMG, S&P 500 is 0.57% down from its all time high!

Have a great weekend! :beer

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey » Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:05 pm

"It will fluctuate." -- J. P. Morgan :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:38 pm

Trailing stop losses are in! :shock:

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:36 pm

Oh well, DW and I are still up .76% YTD.

No worries for us. Still pretty amazed at our good fortune.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven than I shall not go. " -Mark Twain

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:08 am

TropikThunder wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:50 pm
Sounds like someone spends too much time watching CNBC. Maybe we could use this thread to play “Pundit Bingo”? :P
CNBC talking heads are saying the Russell 2000 is the leading indicator and it's under performing so rest of the market is going to follow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2kz7FY4m9g

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:26 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:08 am
TropikThunder wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:50 pm
Sounds like someone spends too much time watching CNBC. Maybe we could use this thread to play “Pundit Bingo”? :P
CNBC talking heads are saying the Russell 2000 is the leading indicator and it's under performing so rest of the market is going to follow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2kz7FY4m9g
The clip is from a CNBC show called “Fast Money”. Enough said.

I choose to shut out the noise.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:39 am

Stinky wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:26 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:08 am
TropikThunder wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:50 pm
Sounds like someone spends too much time watching CNBC. Maybe we could use this thread to play “Pundit Bingo”? :P
CNBC talking heads are saying the Russell 2000 is the leading indicator and it's under performing so rest of the market is going to follow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2kz7FY4m9g
The clip is from a CNBC show called “Fast Money”. Enough said.

I choose to shut out the noise.
But . . . but . . . these guys are experts, Stinky! :confused

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:54 am

Bluce wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 8:39 am
Stinky wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:26 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:08 am
TropikThunder wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:50 pm
Sounds like someone spends too much time watching CNBC. Maybe we could use this thread to play “Pundit Bingo”? :P
CNBC talking heads are saying the Russell 2000 is the leading indicator and it's under performing so rest of the market is going to follow:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2kz7FY4m9g
The clip is from a CNBC show called “Fast Money”. Enough said.

I choose to shut out the noise.
But . . . but . . . these guys are experts, Stinky! :confused
If they keep on saying the market is going to fall, eventually they'll be correct.

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:58 am

A broken clock is right twice a day.

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:03 am

Time to revive. Phase 1 deal to be signed tomorrow, and I predict the details will be a let-down. Rumor filled the market “balloon “ over the past 2 months, but me thinks the news will let the air out. This market has gotten way ahead of itself. Down baby down!

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:13 am

Poor Stinky. I hope he doesn't take it too hard. :(

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:12 am

CoastalWinds wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:03 am
Time to revive. Phase 1 deal to be signed tomorrow, and I predict the details will be a let-down. Rumor filled the market “balloon “ over the past 2 months, but me thinks the news will let the air out. This market has gotten way ahead of itself. Down baby down!
Nope, the melt up continues! :beer

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:22 pm

Ugh. Unbelievable. Just setting us up for that much bigger of a free fall.

TNOA
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TNOA » Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:46 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:22 pm
Ugh. Unbelievable. Just setting us up for that much bigger of a free fall.
You feel like you need it? Getting set up for what's abut to hit you, purely speculative of course. You feel like you're a better investor if you have control? -:)

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender » Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:52 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:03 am
Time to revive. Phase 1 deal to be signed tomorrow, and I predict the details will be a let-down. Rumor filled the market “balloon “ over the past 2 18 long months, but me thinks the news will let the air out. This market has gotten way ahead of itself. Down baby down!
Fixed it for ya
:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:35 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 10:12 am
CoastalWinds wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:03 am
Time to revive. Phase 1 deal to be signed tomorrow, and I predict the details will be a let-down. Rumor filled the market “balloon “ over the past 2 months, but me thinks the news will let the air out. This market has gotten way ahead of itself. Down baby down!
Nope, the melt up continues! :beer
A reversal!

Jon_PassiveInvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jon_PassiveInvestor » Wed Jan 15, 2020 3:38 pm

40k Dow here we come! [Comment removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:23 pm

CoastalWinds wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:03 am
Time to revive. Phase 1 deal to be signed tomorrow, and I predict the details will be a let-down. Rumor filled the market “balloon “ over the past 2 months, but me thinks the news will let the air out. This market has gotten way ahead of itself. Down baby down!
Not down today.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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foosball
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by foosball » Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:31 pm

clip651 wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 1:03 pm
Maybe it's time for you to start a small caps or SP 600 in free fall, soaring, or whatever you want to call your thread ... this is the US stocks thread.

Your posts make me glad I decided not to tilt. It takes a lot of long term patience to deal with returns that vary so much from the total market. If it's the right thing for you, great. But you sure sound unhappy with it.

best wishes,
cj

SCV is more volatile, so it gives this thread more to talk about. Nothing wrong with adding a little spice. Let them type! :D :beer
Tilterati

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:25 pm

Nikkie down 0.75%
S&P Futures down 0.38%

Lets bring some sanity to the markets..

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:35 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:25 pm
Nikkie down 0.75%
S&P Futures down 0.38%

Lets bring some sanity to the markets..
There will be terrible times in the last days.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:36 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Mon Jan 20, 2020 10:25 pm
Nikkie down 0.75%
S&P Futures down 0.38%

Lets bring some sanity to the markets..
Paused 401k contributions this year to help power some debt away. Going to back load the full amount H2 this year. Bring it!

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Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Corsair » Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:58 pm

Grateful I don’t own Chinese stocks or emerging markets. VWO down -2.5%. Hopefully the Chinese government limits whatever they need to so this doesn’t keep happening.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:13 pm

Stef wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:58 am
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Famous words from Sopranos. It sounds nice, but it has zero value.

We have 24 hours a day. There are 60 minutes in an hour. A minute has 60 seconds. So there are 86,400 seconds in a day.

A broken clock is right twice out of 86,400 chances.

A 0.00002 batting average.

No wonder a broken clock is useless.

Point me to whoever is wrong 86,398 times out of 86,400, I will bet on the exact opposite of his/her bet.

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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:22 pm

There are also nano seconds, but that's not the point.

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:28 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/heal ... virus.html

First Wuhan Coronavirus patient identified in the United States.
A person in Washington State is infected with a new respiratory virus. The outbreak began at a market in China and now has spread to at least four other countries.
US markets will soon see the effect..

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:33 pm

Stef wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:22 pm
There are also nano seconds, but that's not the point.
Nanoseconds are too long. I prefer picoseconds. 8-)
H-Town wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:13 pm
Stef wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:58 am
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Famous words from Sopranos. It sounds nice, but it has zero value.

We have 24 hours a day. There are 60 minutes in an hour. A minute has 60 seconds. So there are 86,400 seconds in a day.

A broken clock is right twice out of 86,400 chances.

A 0.00002 batting average.

No wonder a broken clock is useless.

Point me to whoever is wrong 86,398 times out of 86,400, I will bet on the exact opposite of his/her bet.
The analogy isn't perfect, but the point remains that those declaring that a market downturn will occur will eventually be right. But being eventually right does not at all mean that the prognostication is actionable. For instance, when Shiller declared in 1996 that stocks were overvalued and that the next decade's returns would be negative, his prediction was way off. Stocks went up like a rocket until 2000, and despite the downturn lasting until 2002, returns from 1996-2005 were solidly positive. By getting the dates so far off, his prediction was worth less than nothing (i.e. 'stay the course').
Last edited by willthrill81 on Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

sailaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sailaway » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:46 pm

H-Town wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:13 pm
Stef wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:58 am
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Famous words from Sopranos. It sounds nice, but it has zero value.
The phrase is much older than TV, much less a particular TV show. And it isn't about accuracy, it is about being right for the wrong reasons.

H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:50 pm

sailaway wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:46 pm
H-Town wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:13 pm
Stef wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:58 am
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Famous words from Sopranos. It sounds nice, but it has zero value.
The phrase is much older than TV, much less a particular TV show. And it isn't about accuracy, it is about being right for the wrong reasons.
Should it mean: a normally unreliable person or instrument can occasionally provide correct information, even if only by accident?

In the world of investing, if you can be right consistently, you'll be a billionaire. It doesn't matter what reasons they are for.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:54 pm

H-Town wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:50 pm
sailaway wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:46 pm
H-Town wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:13 pm
Stef wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:58 am
A broken clock is right twice a day.
Famous words from Sopranos. It sounds nice, but it has zero value.
The phrase is much older than TV, much less a particular TV show. And it isn't about accuracy, it is about being right for the wrong reasons.
Should it mean: a normally unreliable person or instrument can occasionally provide correct information, even if only by accident?
Yes.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:17 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:28 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/heal ... virus.html

First Wuhan Coronavirus patient identified in the United States.
A person in Washington State is infected with a new respiratory virus. The outbreak began at a market in China and now has spread to at least four other countries.
US markets will soon see the effect..
I cleaned up when Bentley the dog got Ebola. Now is the time to buy. :greedy

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 pm

I am postponing a lump-sum investment for now.. Seems like correction maybe in the horizon..

The virus has an incubation period and can be transferred through respiration, like flu/cold.. (unlike Ebola which needed fluid contact)

Plus Chinese New Year is this week, which is the largest human migration happening every year.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsGk4xw2XUk

TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheDDC » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:18 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 pm
I am postponing a lump-sum investment for now.. Seems like correction maybe in the horizon..

The virus has an incubation period and can be transferred through respiration, like flu/cold.. (unlike Ebola which needed fluid contact)

Plus Chinese New Year is this week, which is the largest human migration happening every year.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsGk4xw2XUk
Your reasoning/excuse is tied to market timing. It reminds me of CNBC trying to explain away every excuse for an up or down day.

Go ahead and invest as normal. The market can go up or down tomorrow just like any other day.

Deploying antiviral medication is like deploying dry powder. We’re investors.

Tally Ho,

-TheDDC
Refreshingly, a double barrel shotgun blast of truth... | Rules to wealth building: 100% VTSAX piled high and deep, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to health care industrial complex

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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:20 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 pm
I am postponing a lump-sum investment for now.. Seems like correction maybe in the horizon..

The virus has an incubation period and can be transferred through respiration, like flu/cold.. (unlike Ebola which needed fluid contact)

Plus Chinese New Year is this week, which is the largest human migration happening every year.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsGk4xw2XUk
From the U.S. stocks continue to soar thread Tuesday.
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:52 pm
Stinky wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:47 pm
Equity markets took a little breather today. They’re clearly tired after a HUGE week last week, followed by a three day weekend.

But it looks like they’re back in the black for tomorrow. Futures are up strongly tonight.

Here’s to hoping that tomorrow is a great day!
Today was Boeing delay and borrowing plus Coronavirus fears effecting Asia and the travel industry. But new earnings reports plus digesting of the Coronavirus news and things are back on track. At least this is my read.
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:00 pm
Nicolas wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:56 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:52 pm
Stinky wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:47 pm
Equity markets took a little breather today. They’re clearly tired after a HUGE week last week, followed by a three day weekend.

But it looks like they’re back in the black for tomorrow. Futures are up strongly tonight.

Here’s to hoping that tomorrow is a great day!
Today was Boeing delay and borrowing plus Coronavirus fears effecting Asia and the travel industry. But new earnings and digesting of the Coronavirus news and things are back on track. At least this is my read.
Coronavirus is now present in a case in Washington state today. But in the past we had similar scares due to SARS, ebola, zika, and etc. all of which seemed to blow over with no major financial impact. The markets don’t like uncertainty.
Yep, the market was almost positive when the news of the U.S. case hit the wire and the market slumped. Futures are making it look like the news is being digested fine by the U.S. markets headed into tomorrow's open.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:27 pm

TheDDC wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:18 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 pm
I am postponing a lump-sum investment for now.. Seems like correction maybe in the horizon..

The virus has an incubation period and can be transferred through respiration, like flu/cold.. (unlike Ebola which needed fluid contact)

Plus Chinese New Year is this week, which is the largest human migration happening every year.
Your reasoning/excuse is tied to market timing. It reminds me of CNBC trying to explain away every excuse for an up or down day.

Go ahead and invest as normal. The market can go up or down tomorrow just like any other day.

Deploying antiviral medication is like deploying dry powder. We’re investors.

Tally Ho,

-TheDDC
LOL @ investment porn. I'm glad I don't get any of those channels, although I do watch the stock and bond markets every day online.

But I never molest my portfolio because of what might be going on. :beer

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7689
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:34 pm

I sold 3.7% of my portfolio in ITOT shares today at $75.0918, under 0.1% away from the all-time-high. It is official, either the crash of all crashes, or rallies of all rallies is coming next.

Before I get the anti market-timing talk, in all seriousness this sale was to cover some recent expenses and will be back-filled 5 times over by tax-advantaged savings this year. Still wouldn't mind a dip before those contributions arrive :twisted: .

guyinlaw
Posts: 223
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:51 pm

S&P 500 on average returns 9-10% per year

Last 3 months up 11% (straight up) without any correction.

I received lump-sum yesterday, will likely dollar cost average in.. (though lump-sum maybe better)

https://paulmerriman.com/is-dollar-cost ... dex-funds/

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7689
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:58 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:51 pm
S&P 500 on average returns 9-10% per year

Last 3 months up 11% (straight up) without any correction.

I received lump-sum yesterday, will likely dollar cost average in.. (though lump-sum maybe better)

https://paulmerriman.com/is-dollar-cost ... dex-funds/
Do you have an IRA or 401k invested in equities? Why aren’t you moving that to cash and redeploying via DCA as well? What you’re doing with the windfall is logically equivalent. I don’t invest with emotions but for some it’s a better evil.

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CyclingDuo
Posts: 2833
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:07 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CyclingDuo » Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:35 am

guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 pm
I am postponing a lump-sum investment for now.. Seems like correction maybe in the horizon..

The virus has an incubation period and can be transferred through respiration, like flu/cold.. (unlike Ebola which needed fluid contact)

Plus Chinese New Year is this week, which is the largest human migration happening every year.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsGk4xw2XUk
Most likely this particular Wuhan Coronavirus will not cause any more market damage than previous virus outbreaks have done in the past. There are less global deaths as a result of the Wuhan Coronavirus at this point in time than the current number of deaths due to the current 2019-2020 flu season...

So far, 6,600 people have died and 120,000 people have been hospitalized during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to preliminary estimates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released Friday. Of those deaths, 39 were children, a group that's particularly vulnerable to the flu and its complications.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/1300-peop ... d=67754182

Regarding previous outbreaks, here's some market history...

Image
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... 2020-01-22
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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Stinky
Posts: 2862
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Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:29 am

guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 pm
I am postponing a lump-sum investment for now.. Seems like correction maybe in the horizon..

The virus has an incubation period and can be transferred through respiration, like flu/cold.. (unlike Ebola which needed fluid contact)

Plus Chinese New Year is this week, which is the largest human migration happening every year.

Image

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsGk4xw2XUk
I am doing precisely nothing in response to this news story. Or any other news story.

Nobody knows what the market will do day to day, week to week, or month to month.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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J G Bankerton
Posts: 1557
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:31 am

I went all in when Bentley got Ebola and make bank. :greedy
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:51 pm
S&P 500 on average returns 9-10% per year

Last 3 months up 11% (straight up) without any correction.

I received lump-sum yesterday, will likely dollar cost average in.. (though lump-sum maybe better)

https://paulmerriman.com/is-dollar-cost ... dex-funds/
I would go all in VOO just before the new bug is no longer a threat.
Look at what has happed to VOO since this thread started. :moneybag

guyinlaw
Posts: 223
Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2019 9:54 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:38 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:58 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:51 pm
S&P 500 on average returns 9-10% per year

Last 3 months up 11% (straight up) without any correction.

I received lump-sum yesterday, will likely dollar cost average in.. (though lump-sum maybe better)

https://paulmerriman.com/is-dollar-cost ... dex-funds/
Do you have an IRA or 401k invested in equities? Why aren’t you moving that to cash and redeploying via DCA as well? What you’re doing with the windfall is logically equivalent. I don’t invest with emotions but for some it’s a better evil.
Thank you for the suggestion.. I will invest part of the lump-sum in taxable and sell the same amount in IRA. Then redeploy IRA via DCA.

Earlier this month, I was at around 120% stock (leverage through micro-emini futures). Right now around 95% stock, after reducing leverage.. have around 20% bonds.. I was following the lifecycle investing approach.

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Bluce
Posts: 477
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Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:46 am

Here's an interesting chart from Chuck, showing Bear/Bull size and duration:

Image

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