2020 Hedge Fund contest

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OnTrack
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by OnTrack » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:30 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:17 pm
OnTrack wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:29 am
Guaranteed Return Capital

Long
AMCX
DCX
QRTEA
What stock did you mean by DCX? I don't find a valid ticker for it. You can edit your post to fix it or pick another replacement long.
Sorry, I meant DXC (DXC Technology Co.). Monday's closing price 35.55.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:52 am

OnTrack - ok, thanks. updated.

Here's the spreadsheet with everyone's picks:

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

Please let me know if there are any mistakes/typos with your fund and whether you have any issues viewing the spreadsheet. I updated the shared settings so hopefully it should be public now.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:21 am

^^^ Works for me. To those not familiar with the spreadsheet, the fund's name is a hyperlink to MarketWatch's "Big Charts". The fund is compared to SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust).

Clicking on the fund's name will display a pop-up link. Click on the link to see the charts.
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Darth Xanadu
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Darth Xanadu » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:35 am

Thank you Tanelorn (and any others) for organizing and administering the contest.
"A courageous teacher, failure is."

cb474
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by cb474 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:02 pm

Yes, thank you Tanelorn.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:13 pm

Three cheers for Tanelorn!

JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:52 pm

JBTX wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:22 pm
Introducing the WTHDOINO American Opportunities Fund

Long: TSLA
To save everybody a lot of trouble you should go ahead and declare me winner now.
Here’s the case for Tesla $6,000
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

:mrgreen: :beer

veggivet
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by veggivet » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:48 pm

Thanks! You just confirmed my TSLA short pick will pay off big time... :D
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:59 pm

I wanna buy Musk a whiskey on Mars.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:15 pm

Thanks for the kind words. Well, the contest is off and after the first exciting day, timboktoo’s taken a quick lead at +6% with his prescient short pick of GameStop (GME) who just announced very poor sales and revenues leading the stock to fall 13%. On the long side, the best pick so far has been Aimmune Therapeutics by hornet96. AIMT gained 13% today after generating considerable excitement over their stock’s prospects with their presentation last night at the major JPM healthcare conference.

We at Tanelorn Capital are taking the long view. You may have noticed our single short position, MDR, moved against us by 12% and put us on the other end of the list. We expect considerable volatility with our portfolio, but have high hopes for the medium to longer term prospects.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest
Last edited by Tanelorn on Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:22 pm

The wiki has been updated for the 2020 contests: Bogleheads® contests
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JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:40 pm

veggivet wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:48 pm
Thanks! You just confirmed my TSLA short pick will pay off big time... :D
I'd never buy tesla (or any stock for that matter) but with everybody shorting it here I figured it maximizes my odds of winning. If it goes down, I'll crash in flames. If it goes up a decent amount, I've got a decent shot at winning.

veggivet
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by veggivet » Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:09 am

Smart strategy. We'll see how it works out. Good luck!
JBTX wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:40 pm

I'd never buy tesla (or any stock for that matter) but with everybody shorting it here I figured it maximizes my odds of winning. If it goes down, I'll crash in flames. If it goes up a decent amount, I've got a decent shot at winning.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:47 am

And we have a new leader - congratulations to LadyGeek! Her sole long pick, Exela Technologies (XELA), a financial software company, was up as much as 40% on the news they had secured favorable long term financing yesterday. After some initial excitement died down, the stock is still up 15%, putting her investors in the Put it all on red Fund solidly in first place as you can see below.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest
Image
Tanelorn wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:15 pm
We at Tanelorn Capital are taking the long view. You may have noticed our single short position, MDR, moved against us by 12% and put us on the other end of the list. We expect considerable volatility with our portfolio, but have high hopes for the medium to longer term prospects.
Did I say the “long view”? It seems we’re taking the really long view, generously giving all you other fund managers in the contest a 17% head start against Tanelorn Capital investors. Actually our short position had moved nearly 30% against us as of yesterday, but it retraced somewhat since then. The stock had risen as further negotiations continued with creditors to hopefully resolve their debt issues.

cb474
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by cb474 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm

It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices. A lot of use (myself included) went for obvious things like Apple, Tesla. For myself, my choices were based mostly on ignorance and fairly obvious hunches (it's in my prospectus). But the choices of companies that I've never heard of suggest some people actually had a meaningful thought process and knowledge about something. I'm curious what that was.

[Edit: Actually, I see I'm in 26th place as of today, in other words in the top 36th percentile--far exceeding expectations--and ahead of no less than Rick Ferri. Maybe I'm not so ignorant after all. Shorting Boeing and Tesla seems to be paying off. This run can never end!]

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:20 pm

Sorry, it's a proprietary model. :)

Alternatively, find a website that lists the index constituents in a sortable table, like Barchart.com :wink:
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GoldenFinch
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:28 pm

cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices. A lot of use (myself included) went for obvious things like Apple, Tesla. For myself, my choices were based mostly on ignorance and fairly obvious hunches (it's in my prospectus). But the choices of companies that I've never heard of suggest some people actually had a meaningful thought process and knowledge about something. I'm curious what that was.

[Edit: Actually, I see I'm in 26th place as of today, in other words in the top 36th percentile--far exceeding expectations--and ahead of no less than Rick Ferri. Maybe I'm not so ignorant after all. Shorting Boeing and Tesla seems to be paying off. This run can never end!]
One “trick” is to choose a high beta stock that will potentially swing much more than the market in general. They are riskier and may go in the wrong direction, but you don’t care because it’s just a game and not your actual money. In other words, “Don’t try this at home!” :beer

grok87
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by grok87 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:28 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:09 pm
Ladies First has returned after a one year absence. The time did not go to waste, as we've not only revitalized marketing and sales, but have also refined our hedge fund modeling team resources for the lowest cost. We proudly announce our new fund:

Put it all on red

Long
XELA - Exela Technologies Inc

(Update: Added intro)
Congrats LadyGeek on being in 1st!
RIP Mr. Bogle.

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Rick Ferri
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:19 am

cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
Actually, I see I'm in 26th place as of today, in other words in the top 36th percentile--far exceeding expectations--and ahead of no less than Rick Ferri. Maybe I'm not so ignorant after all. Shorting Boeing and Tesla seems to be paying off. This run can never end!]
I believe my return last year was a whopping 1% while the market was up over 30%, once again proving to myself to stick with index funds.

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

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timboktoo
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by timboktoo » Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:30 am

cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices. A lot of use (myself included) went for obvious things like Apple, Tesla. For myself, my choices were based mostly on ignorance and fairly obvious hunches (it's in my prospectus). But the choices of companies that I've never heard of suggest some people actually had a meaningful thought process and knowledge about something. I'm curious what that was.
I didn't do any real research for mine. It's just dumb luck.

Someone ranted loudly on a Motley Fool podcast about how doomed GameStop was. I figured there was a good possibility that they were right, since there's very little need which GameStop fills anymore and its financials didn't look very inspiring.

For my long choice, I chose Berkshire without even glancing at it. In retrospect, I think it was a bad choice, because it's unlikely to move very much. That might make it a decent choice for a real fund, but it's a bad choice for a contest.

Even though there's no money involved in these positions, I've found myself anxious about it. It's obvious that I have no business doing something like this with real money. I seriously doubt that I would be able to sleep at night. I've found myself checking the positions during the day at work, which is weird for me. I normally go long stretches without even knowing what the market itself is doing.

- Tim

Vanguard Fan 1367
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:02 am

timboktoo wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:30 am
cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices. A lot of use (myself included) went for obvious things like Apple, Tesla. For myself, my choices were based mostly on ignorance and fairly obvious hunches (it's in my prospectus). But the choices of companies that I've never heard of suggest some people actually had a meaningful thought process and knowledge about something. I'm curious what that was.
I didn't do any real research for mine. It's just dumb luck.

Someone ranted loudly on a Motley Fool podcast about how doomed GameStop was. I figured there was a good possibility that they were right, since there's very little need which GameStop fills anymore and its financials didn't look very inspiring.

For my long choice, I chose Berkshire without even glancing at it. In retrospect, I think it was a bad choice, because it's unlikely to move very much. That might make it a decent choice for a real fund, but it's a bad choice for a contest.

Even though there's no money involved in these positions, I've found myself anxious about it. It's obvious that I have no business doing something like this with real money. I seriously doubt that I would be able to sleep at night. I've found myself checking the positions during the day at work, which is weird for me. I normally go long stretches without even knowing what the market itself is doing.

- Tim
Congratulations on your 2nd place today. Men especially often are competitive and when you see you are doing well I totally sympathize with your anxiety. After buying a Peter Lynch book for a dollar at a garage sale I got started with for real buying 5 stocks and followed them pretty closely. I tend to not sleep at night with any stress. Thankfully I bought those 5 stocks in 1994 which I have read was one of the great times to get into the stock market.
And I managed to pick 5 stocks, including a couple of Lynch recommendations that worked out well.

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abuss368
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by abuss368 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:41 pm

Woo hoo! I am 57 out of 72! I am officially quoting my day job!
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:11 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:41 pm
Woo hoo! I am 57 out of 72! I am officially quoting my day job!
I like your John Bogle 2 fund portfolio note at the bottom of your post. When I compared my basket of stocks return to John Bogle's index funds I officially quit trying to be a stock picker.

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abuss368
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by abuss368 » Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:12 pm

Vanguard Fan 1367 wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:11 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 4:41 pm
Woo hoo! I am 57 out of 72! I am officially quoting my day job!
I like your John Bogle 2 fund portfolio note at the bottom of your post. When I compared my basket of stocks return to John Bogle's index funds I officially quit trying to be a stock picker.
Many thanks! Please look at our Jack Bogle Two Fund Portfolio thread where you can learn a lot and ask questions here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=188176
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

TagmoreClock
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by TagmoreClock » Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:54 pm

TagmoreClock wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:46 am
ClockWork Darts
Long: V, MEET, WDC
Short: LYFT, PINS (Exclude PINS if it is not allowed.Surprisingly, I could not find it in Russell 3000)
Tanelorn,
Many many thanks for arranging this. I am already learning a lot from this.
Small request. Is it possible for you to fix name of my fund in the sheet. My fund name is "ClockWork Darts". It is showing as "The Longest Bull". Really, it doesn't matter, but I do not want to steal somebody else's hedge fund name.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:20 pm

TagmoreClock wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:54 pm
Tanelorn,
Many many thanks for arranging this. I am already learning a lot from this.
Small request. Is it possible for you to fix name of my fund in the sheet. My fund name is "ClockWork Darts". It is showing as "The Longest Bull". Really, it doesn't matter, but I do not want to steal somebody else's hedge fund name.
Fixed. Typos and corrections are welcome, as I must have missed it when converting over last year’s spreadsheet.

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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:54 pm

Glad to see my stock picks are not a factor.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:36 am

Didymograptus wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:51 pm
Privet Hedge Fund

Long: CHK, APC, HES
Short: NKTR, ORGO, RST
I belated realized that Anadarko Petroleum (APC) was acquired last year by Occidental (OXY) and as such one of your long picks no longer existed as of the start of the contest. Normally I’d just remove an invalid entry, but since the merger included OXY stock, if you want you can swap OXY in for APC. Let me know in the next few days if you want OXY, otherwise I’ll just drop APC altogether.

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Didymograptus
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Didymograptus » Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:20 am

Thank you for your diligence here.

Let's go with OXY instead of APC.
Tanelorn wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:36 am
Didymograptus wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 6:51 pm
Privet Hedge Fund

Long: CHK, APC, HES
Short: NKTR, ORGO, RST
I belated realized that Anadarko Petroleum (APC) was acquired last year by Occidental (OXY) and as such one of your long picks no longer existed as of the start of the contest. Normally I’d just remove an invalid entry, but since the merger included OXY stock, if you want you can swap OXY in for APC. Let me know in the next few days if you want OXY, otherwise I’ll just drop APC altogether.
The best things in life aren't things

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Wed Jan 22, 2020 10:17 am

Didymograptus wrote:
Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:20 am
Thank you for your diligence here.

Let's go with OXY instead of APC.
Ok, updated. Here are the current standings:

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

TNWoods
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by TNWoods » Wed Jan 22, 2020 6:26 pm

Here are the tickers that got more than one mention:

TSLA: 5 Long, 17 Short
AAPL: 6 Long, 4 Short
BA: 4 Long, 4 Short
GE: 6 Long, 2 Short
AMD: 3 Long, 2 Short
BYND: 2 Long, 1 Short
FB: 2 Long, 1 Short
M: 1 Long, 2 Short
VZ: 1 Long, 2 Short
BIIB: 1 Long, 1 Short
DOCU: 1 Long, 1 Short
MDR: 1 Long, 1 Short
MU: 1 Long, 1 Short
XOM: 1 Long, 1 Short

DIS: 8 Long
MSFT: 5 Long
AMZN: 3 Long
OXY: 3 Long
AMCX: 2 Long
CACI: 2 Long
CHK: 2 Long
COST: 2 Long
LMT: 2 Long
MBII: 2 Long
NVDA: 2 Long
SRPT: 2 Long
T: 2 Long
TGT: 2 Long

JCP: 6 Short
GME: 4 Short
UBER: 4 Short
ASNA: 2 Short
BBBY: 2 Short
FDX: 2 Short
LYFT: 2 Short
NFLX: 2 Short

I did it kind of fast, hopefully I got them right.

TNWoods

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:39 pm

happyisland wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:43 am
Monkeydart Hedge

Long:
RUN

Short:
BABY
It doesn't quite have the same flavor for your picks anymore, but Natus Medical changed their ticker so they are NTUS instead of BABY.

Speaking of ticker changes, McDermott declared bankruptcy a few days ago and were subsequently delisted from the NYSE and now trade on the Pink Sheets with the ticker MDRIQ. The stock was down about 80%, shaking up the rankings for the two fund managers who had opposite bets on the troubled energy services company. Here are the current standings:

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

GoldenFinch
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:40 pm

Okay. I’m starting to think that when Tanalorn picks a stock for these contests we should all buy or short it, whatever he’s doing, because he seems to to be really good at this stock picking hedge fund stuff. :beer

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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:00 pm

cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices.
Neptune, Sol System
In a recent interview with whodidntante, founder and 2 and 20 beneficiary of the "Mostly Spare Parts" hedge fund, he revealed his stock selection process.

"Well, this year I was late to the game and Tanelorn's security selection deadline was fast approaching. The Bogleheads had taken all of my really obvious first choices, and I didn't want them to make fun of me for being unoriginal. So I spent the next 30 minutes looking at a stock screener, to find the most awful, repugnant, abhorrent corporation in the controlling index. Preferably something with no redeeming value, and absolutely no hope of ever succeeding. If possible, something that has significant market value yet would not be worth burning down for the insurance money.

The best I could do was to find a possible patent troll in the third trimester of gestation. The odds that I'm right are about the same as lucky number 13 on the roulette wheel.

I also went with one pick only, as this gives me the best chance of a 100% return with a short only portfolio. Also, I like to gamble, and the swings are more vigorous this way.

Unfortunately, I cannot accept your investment in my fund right. The fund is investable by invitation only."

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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante » Fri Jan 24, 2020 11:11 pm

Nice short, Tanelorn!

overthought
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by overthought » Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:59 am

It would be fascinating to extend the contest to allow people to freeze one position and then get back in with a different position -- basically rebalancing during the year. How many shorts in a row could Tanelorn stack 80%+ gains together with? :shock:

aristotelian
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by aristotelian » Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:18 am

Tanelorn off to a great start. Going to be an uphill climb this year! Seems like shorting companies near bankruptcy is the way to go, even in a bull market, although last year the AAPL long pulled it off. Someone should do a short-distressed stock ETF. Maybe Tanelorn.

aristotelian
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by aristotelian » Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:20 am

overthought wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:59 am
It would be fascinating to extend the contest to allow people to freeze one position and then get back in with a different position -- basically rebalancing during the year. How many shorts in a row could Tanelorn stack 80%+ gains together with? :shock:
Are there any simulation platforms that would enable this without too much trouble on the admin?

overthought
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by overthought » Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:28 pm

aristotelian wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 11:20 am
overthought wrote:
Sat Jan 25, 2020 10:59 am
It would be fascinating to extend the contest to allow people to freeze one position and then get back in with a different position -- basically rebalancing during the year. How many shorts in a row could Tanelorn stack 80%+ gains together with? :shock:
Are there any simulation platforms that would enable this without too much trouble on the admin?
Not much to simulate... just drop it in a google spreadsheet. First row starts at $1, starting price and current price of your positions. When you decide to get out, freeze that, and the ratio of start to end is a multiplier for your starting $1. Second row starts with proceeds of the first row. Rinse repeat.

As always, you have to be right twice for each row you add: which positions to take, and when to get out.

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