2020 Hedge Fund contest

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OnTrack
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by OnTrack » Tue Jan 14, 2020 2:30 am

Tanelorn wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:17 pm
OnTrack wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:29 am
Guaranteed Return Capital

Long
AMCX
DCX
QRTEA
What stock did you mean by DCX? I don't find a valid ticker for it. You can edit your post to fix it or pick another replacement long.
Sorry, I meant DXC (DXC Technology Co.). Monday's closing price 35.55.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:52 am

OnTrack - ok, thanks. updated.

Here's the spreadsheet with everyone's picks:

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest

Please let me know if there are any mistakes/typos with your fund and whether you have any issues viewing the spreadsheet. I updated the shared settings so hopefully it should be public now.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:21 am

^^^ Works for me. To those not familiar with the spreadsheet, the fund's name is a hyperlink to MarketWatch's "Big Charts". The fund is compared to SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust).

Clicking on the fund's name will display a pop-up link. Click on the link to see the charts.
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Darth Xanadu
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Darth Xanadu » Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:35 am

Thank you Tanelorn (and any others) for organizing and administering the contest.
"A courageous teacher, failure is."

cb474
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by cb474 » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:02 pm

Yes, thank you Tanelorn.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:13 pm

Three cheers for Tanelorn!

JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX » Tue Jan 14, 2020 7:52 pm

JBTX wrote:
Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:22 pm
Introducing the WTHDOINO American Opportunities Fund

Long: TSLA
To save everybody a lot of trouble you should go ahead and declare me winner now.
Here’s the case for Tesla $6,000
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres ... =home-page

:mrgreen: :beer

veggivet
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by veggivet » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:48 pm

Thanks! You just confirmed my TSLA short pick will pay off big time... :D
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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whodidntante
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by whodidntante » Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:59 pm

I wanna buy Musk a whiskey on Mars.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:15 pm

Thanks for the kind words. Well, the contest is off and after the first exciting day, timboktoo’s taken a quick lead at +6% with his prescient short pick of GameStop (GME) who just announced very poor sales and revenues leading the stock to fall 13%. On the long side, the best pick so far has been Aimmune Therapeutics by hornet96. AIMT gained 13% today after generating considerable excitement over their stock’s prospects with their presentation last night at the major JPM healthcare conference.

We at Tanelorn Capital are taking the long view. You may have noticed our single short position, MDR, moved against us by 12% and put us on the other end of the list. We expect considerable volatility with our portfolio, but have high hopes for the medium to longer term prospects.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest
Last edited by Tanelorn on Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:22 pm

The wiki has been updated for the 2020 contests: Bogleheads® contests
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

JBTX
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by JBTX » Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:40 pm

veggivet wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:48 pm
Thanks! You just confirmed my TSLA short pick will pay off big time... :D
I'd never buy tesla (or any stock for that matter) but with everybody shorting it here I figured it maximizes my odds of winning. If it goes down, I'll crash in flames. If it goes up a decent amount, I've got a decent shot at winning.

veggivet
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by veggivet » Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:09 am

Smart strategy. We'll see how it works out. Good luck!
JBTX wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:40 pm

I'd never buy tesla (or any stock for that matter) but with everybody shorting it here I figured it maximizes my odds of winning. If it goes down, I'll crash in flames. If it goes up a decent amount, I've got a decent shot at winning.
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.

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Tanelorn
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Tanelorn » Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:47 am

And we have a new leader - congratulations to LadyGeek! Her sole long pick, Exela Technologies (XELA), a financial software company, was up as much as 40% on the news they had secured favorable long term financing yesterday. After some initial excitement died down, the stock is still up 15%, putting her investors in the Put it all on red Fund solidly in first place as you can see below.

Current Standings - 2020 hedge fund contest
Image
Tanelorn wrote:
Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:15 pm
We at Tanelorn Capital are taking the long view. You may have noticed our single short position, MDR, moved against us by 12% and put us on the other end of the list. We expect considerable volatility with our portfolio, but have high hopes for the medium to longer term prospects.
Did I say the “long view”? It seems we’re taking the really long view, generously giving all you other fund managers in the contest a 17% head start against Tanelorn Capital investors. Actually our short position had moved nearly 30% against us as of yesterday, but it retraced somewhat since then. The stock had risen as further negotiations continued with creditors to hopefully resolve their debt issues.

cb474
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by cb474 » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm

It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices. A lot of use (myself included) went for obvious things like Apple, Tesla. For myself, my choices were based mostly on ignorance and fairly obvious hunches (it's in my prospectus). But the choices of companies that I've never heard of suggest some people actually had a meaningful thought process and knowledge about something. I'm curious what that was.

[Edit: Actually, I see I'm in 26th place as of today, in other words in the top 36th percentile--far exceeding expectations--and ahead of no less than Rick Ferri. Maybe I'm not so ignorant after all. Shorting Boeing and Tesla seems to be paying off. This run can never end!]

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LadyGeek
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:20 pm

Sorry, it's a proprietary model. :)

Alternatively, find a website that lists the index constituents in a sortable table, like Barchart.com :wink:
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GoldenFinch
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by GoldenFinch » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:28 pm

cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices. A lot of use (myself included) went for obvious things like Apple, Tesla. For myself, my choices were based mostly on ignorance and fairly obvious hunches (it's in my prospectus). But the choices of companies that I've never heard of suggest some people actually had a meaningful thought process and knowledge about something. I'm curious what that was.

[Edit: Actually, I see I'm in 26th place as of today, in other words in the top 36th percentile--far exceeding expectations--and ahead of no less than Rick Ferri. Maybe I'm not so ignorant after all. Shorting Boeing and Tesla seems to be paying off. This run can never end!]
One “trick” is to choose a high beta stock that will potentially swing much more than the market in general. They are riskier and may go in the wrong direction, but you don’t care because it’s just a game and not your actual money. In other words, “Don’t try this at home!” :beer

grok87
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by grok87 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:28 am

LadyGeek wrote:
Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:09 pm
Ladies First has returned after a one year absence. The time did not go to waste, as we've not only revitalized marketing and sales, but have also refined our hedge fund modeling team resources for the lowest cost. We proudly announce our new fund:

Put it all on red

Long
XELA - Exela Technologies Inc

(Update: Added intro)
Congrats LadyGeek on being in 1st!
RIP Mr. Bogle.

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Rick Ferri
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Rick Ferri » Sat Jan 18, 2020 8:19 am

cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
Actually, I see I'm in 26th place as of today, in other words in the top 36th percentile--far exceeding expectations--and ahead of no less than Rick Ferri. Maybe I'm not so ignorant after all. Shorting Boeing and Tesla seems to be paying off. This run can never end!]
I believe my return last year was a whopping 1% while the market was up over 30%, once again proving to myself to stick with index funds.

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

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timboktoo
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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by timboktoo » Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:30 am

cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices. A lot of use (myself included) went for obvious things like Apple, Tesla. For myself, my choices were based mostly on ignorance and fairly obvious hunches (it's in my prospectus). But the choices of companies that I've never heard of suggest some people actually had a meaningful thought process and knowledge about something. I'm curious what that was.
I didn't do any real research for mine. It's just dumb luck.

Someone ranted loudly on a Motley Fool podcast about how doomed GameStop was. I figured there was a good possibility that they were right, since there's very little need which GameStop fills anymore and its financials didn't look very inspiring.

For my long choice, I chose Berkshire without even glancing at it. In retrospect, I think it was a bad choice, because it's unlikely to move very much. That might make it a decent choice for a real fund, but it's a bad choice for a contest.

Even though there's no money involved in these positions, I've found myself anxious about it. It's obvious that I have no business doing something like this with real money. I seriously doubt that I would be able to sleep at night. I've found myself checking the positions during the day at work, which is weird for me. I normally go long stretches without even knowing what the market itself is doing.

- Tim

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Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 11:02 am

timboktoo wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 9:30 am
cb474 wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:01 pm
It would be interesting to know the thinking behind people's choices. A lot of use (myself included) went for obvious things like Apple, Tesla. For myself, my choices were based mostly on ignorance and fairly obvious hunches (it's in my prospectus). But the choices of companies that I've never heard of suggest some people actually had a meaningful thought process and knowledge about something. I'm curious what that was.
I didn't do any real research for mine. It's just dumb luck.

Someone ranted loudly on a Motley Fool podcast about how doomed GameStop was. I figured there was a good possibility that they were right, since there's very little need which GameStop fills anymore and its financials didn't look very inspiring.

For my long choice, I chose Berkshire without even glancing at it. In retrospect, I think it was a bad choice, because it's unlikely to move very much. That might make it a decent choice for a real fund, but it's a bad choice for a contest.

Even though there's no money involved in these positions, I've found myself anxious about it. It's obvious that I have no business doing something like this with real money. I seriously doubt that I would be able to sleep at night. I've found myself checking the positions during the day at work, which is weird for me. I normally go long stretches without even knowing what the market itself is doing.

- Tim
Congratulations on your 2nd place today. Men especially often are competitive and when you see you are doing well I totally sympathize with your anxiety. After buying a Peter Lynch book for a dollar at a garage sale I got started with for real buying 5 stocks and followed them pretty closely. I tend to not sleep at night with any stress. Thankfully I bought those 5 stocks in 1994 which I have read was one of the great times to get into the stock market.
And I managed to pick 5 stocks, including a couple of Lynch recommendations that worked out well.

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