Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

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dwp456
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Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by dwp456 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:04 pm

I know we are not to discuss politics here, so without addressing political agendas, I'd like your thoughts about a potential move that I'm contemplating for my portfolio prior to November's election.

For background, my wife and I will soon be 64 years old, and plan on retiring probably within the next two years. Through a buy-and-hold, stay-the- course approach over the years, we've managed to accumulate a total portfolio of $2.9 million. For our purposes, that, along with SS, should provide us with the retirment lifestyle that we desire. Since we are "late in the 4th quarter", I don't feel like we need to attempt any "hail Mary's", and it makes sense to just "hand the ball off" and not risk a fumble or interception. I have ratcheted our asset allocation down a bit over the last couple years to a current 60/40.

Based on the facts (not conjecture) about the Democratic candidates' stated policies, it would appear that if a Democrat wins the election in November, a significant market correction will probably occur. Fiscal policies (not the least of which will be the roll-back or repeal of the recently enacted personal and corporate tax overhaul), may well drive the market significantly downwards. I have never been a market timer, but this worries me since I am so close to retirement. I'm thinking of backing out of the stock market almost completely just prior to the election. If a Democrat wins, and the correction occurs, I will have protected my assets. If the Republican wins, I can quickly re-invest back to my target allocation. If a Democrat wins and I'm wrong about a crash and it doesn't happen, I could still get back in and re-invest fairly quickly. I would be willing to forego a couple of months of lost gains by being on the sidelines in order to protect my nest egg.

Is this carzy thinking? Again, I have never been a market timer, but these are extraordinary times, and I think we are in uncharted waters here.

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Dale_G
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by Dale_G » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:06 pm

Not a chance of this being a lengthy discussion. I will be doing nothing different.
Volatility is my friend

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greg24
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by greg24 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:06 pm

This is crazy thinking.

In 2016, the market reacted to the election in a different direction than everyone predicted.

We're not in uncharted territory. We are just in another presidential election year.

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willthrill81
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:07 pm

Countdown to the lock in 3.....2......1......

If you're worried about stocks dropping significantly in value for whatever reason, then you probably have too much invested in stocks.
dwp456 wrote:
Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:04 pm
but these are extraordinary times, and I think we are in uncharted waters here.
Not really. The waters we're sailing with are always uncharted.

"No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man."
-Heraclitus
Last edited by willthrill81 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

DesertDiva
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by DesertDiva » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:07 pm

Candidates say lots of things prior to an election.

IBTL

sailaway
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by sailaway » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:08 pm

So you know who is going to win the next election, how well their policies will be implemented and how that will affect the stock market and you think the mortals here can help you make a decision?

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cheese_breath
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by cheese_breath » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:09 pm

In before the lock.
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.

Trapper
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by Trapper » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:10 pm

Can’t predict the market.
In before the lock.

ponyboy
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by ponyboy » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:11 pm

Locked in 3...2...1...

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LadyGeek
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Re: Should I Make This Portfolio Move Prior to November's Election?

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:15 pm

...Locked. This thread has run its course and is locked (politics). See: Politics and Religion
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