Favorite stock(s) and why

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adamb
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Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:10 pm

Hi Bogleheads,

What is(are) your favorite stock(s) and why?

I know and largely follow the long-term highly diversified investment philosophy, but I suspect many of you have play accounts and am curious what you're invested in and why. For a quirky example, my wife and I hold Disney (DIS) not for their large IP portfolio but because my wife likes Mickey. More seriously, I hold Visa (V) because of it's low interest rate risk and consistently strong EPS numbers.

I'm curious because I'm thinking about crowdsourcing a 10 year M1 portfolio with 7 to 10 picks.

Thank you.

Best,

ddurrett896
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by ddurrett896 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:22 pm

Won't wear anything else except Darn Touch Socks!

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by DesertDiva » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:23 pm

adamb wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:10 pm
Hi Bogleheads,

What is(are) your favorite stock(s) and why?

I know and largely follow the long-term highly diversified investment philosophy, but I suspect many of you have play accounts and am curious what you're invested in and why. For a quirky example, my wife and I hold Disney (DIS) not for their large IP portfolio but because my wife likes Mickey. More seriously, I hold Visa (V) because of it's low interest rate risk and consistently strong EPS numbers.

I'm curious because I'm thinking about crowdsourcing a 10 year M1 portfolio with 7 to 10 picks.

Thank you.

Best,
None here... 100% index funds. I stopped trying to buy the needle long ago and now own the haystack.

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Mactheriverrat
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Mactheriverrat » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:30 pm

Seems there isn't much chart posters here or maybe I've haven't seen them yet. I more or less new here. Favorite stocks you ask. It depends what what the Guppy MMA show me when a trend is changing.

CLVS has been in a uptrend but is in a little resistance area but still in a uptrend.
http://charts.stockfetcher.com/sfchart/1dazFk3GFp.png
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TNWoods
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by TNWoods » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:31 pm

AAPL because it has turned each $1.00 I spent then into $3.31 now, and it doesn't seem to be done.

TNWoods

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Mactheriverrat
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Mactheriverrat » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:34 pm

The best video I've found to explain Guppy MMA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjfW2BaeldU&t=291s
May Every Sunrise Bring You Hope. May Every Sunset Bring you Peace.

Rosencrantz1
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:49 pm

TNWoods wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:31 pm
AAPL because it has turned each $1.00 I spent then into $3.31 now, and it doesn't seem to be done.

TNWoods
+1 I don't own many individual stocks any more, but, I bought 50 shares of AAPL years ago (before the last split) and it's done pretty well and it pays a small dividend too. Primary drivers for ownership for me has been that I REALLY like their products and I think they're very well managed.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Trader Joe » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:40 pm

adamb wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:10 pm
Hi Bogleheads,

What is(are) your favorite stock(s) and why?

I know and largely follow the long-term highly diversified investment philosophy, but I suspect many of you have play accounts and am curious what you're invested in and why. For a quirky example, my wife and I hold Disney (DIS) not for their large IP portfolio but because my wife likes Mickey. More seriously, I hold Visa (V) because of it's low interest rate risk and consistently strong EPS numbers.

I'm curious because I'm thinking about crowdsourcing a 10 year M1 portfolio with 7 to 10 picks.

Thank you.

Best,
My favorite (and only) equity investments, are VFIAX (Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares) or VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares) - or their Fidelity equivalents.

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Stinky
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Stinky » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:50 pm

I own all the stocks you own, and more.

My domestic exposure is in VTSAX. Total Stock Market. I don’t try to anticipate which stocks will outperform - I own them all.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by oldcomputerguy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:53 pm

My wife owns two individual stocks (Cracker Barrel and Suntrust Bank Inc) because she inherited them from her mom's estate and hangs on to them for sentimental reasons. Other than those two, we're 100% index funds.
"I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people; and if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you." (Aaron Sorkin)

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by athan » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:27 pm

In my play account:

1. Tesla TSLA (I think Elon is a genius who cares more about humanity than personal gain)

2. Agenus AGEN (Small immuno-oncology company working on curing cancer. They have been around over 20 years, have low debt, and the drugs in their pipeline are excellent anf second to none. It has the chance of blowing up in the next five years)

I have about 5% of portfolio invested in each company, and I feel great about the chances of both companies.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by danielc » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:33 pm

adamb wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:10 pm
Hi Bogleheads,

What is(are) your favorite stock(s) and why?
- Vanguard VT --- Hold the entire world stock portfolio in one asset.
- Vanguard BNDW --- Hold the entire world bond portfolio in one asset.

I like them because they are the most diversified things you can buy. I don't hold any single-company stocks.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by danielc » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:37 pm

Mactheriverrat wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:34 pm
The best video I've found to explain Guppy MMA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjfW2BaeldU&t=291s
Sounds like hocus pocus to me.

GeMoney
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by GeMoney » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:40 pm

I inherited a few shares of Lockheed Martin which I've decided to hold on to for now. Their dividend is good and their stock price chart since 2010 almost goes straight up other than for a few months at the end of 2018.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by UpperNwGuy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:42 pm

I don't have any favorite stocks.

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dmcmahon
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by dmcmahon » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:00 pm

Mister Softey (MSFT), I like a comeback.

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Mactheriverrat
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Mactheriverrat » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:03 pm

danielc wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:37 pm
Mactheriverrat wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:34 pm
The best video I've found to explain Guppy MMA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjfW2BaeldU&t=291s
Sounds like hocus pocus to me.
Its worked for me for a long time.
May Every Sunrise Bring You Hope. May Every Sunset Bring you Peace.

ARoseByAnyOtherName
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by ARoseByAnyOtherName » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:16 pm

Mactheriverrat wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:03 pm
danielc wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:37 pm
Mactheriverrat wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:34 pm
The best video I've found to explain Guppy MMA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjfW2BaeldU&t=291s
Sounds like hocus pocus to me.
Its worked for me for a long time.
What do you mean by “worked”?

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by KyleAAA » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:24 pm

MSFT and AAPL sure have been fun to own lately.

Topic Author
adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:34 pm

Thanks all, especially those who responded with something other than VTSAX, etc.

AAPL and MSFT are on the short list. Will look into the others.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by columbia » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:39 pm

I’ve considered buying BRK.B in my taxable account. Maybe some day?

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by ultraviolet » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:52 pm

I have AAPL, DIS, TGT, and MSFT. I got AAPL and DIS in January after the 2018 December dip. I got MSFT recently after another I used to own jumped and MSFT dipped so I took the opportunity to sell for a profit and buy MSFT slightly below usual (It's one I've been waiting to get into my portfolio). A few weeks later MSFT earnings came out which were quite good then they sealed the deal with the government cloud contract so that one has done pretty well. I bought TGT during the summer 15 minutes before Trump tweeted something bad about the China trade war. It literally lost $10 per share in about 3 minutes putting me very much in the hole. I took that opportunity to buy more and lower my cost basis. Then their earnings came out and it jumped 20% or so to over $100.

Earlier in the year I owned quite a few more but I've sold all but those 4. I think I'll hold on to these for a while, they all pay a decent dividend and together they are nicely spread across the morningstar large cap value/core/growth boxes.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by lazyday » Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:58 pm

[Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy]
I don’t see it that way at all, at least in this thread.

Bogleheads can be like an emotional support forum. If someone is straying into dangerous territory, they might be kindly reminded of Boglehead principles.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by mortfree » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:09 pm

Apple, google and SiriusXM were initially purchased 2007, 2008, and ~2004 respectively.

Have added to Apple and SiriusXM along the way.

I also like BRKB and United Healthcare (UNH).

In addition to the above The only other individual stock I own now is Altria (MO) and that took a hit.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by danielc » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:16 pm

[Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy]
I briefly considered getting some Canadian bank stocks because in my 401k there is no index fund that tracks the entire world ex-US; so I have to make do with one that tracks EAFE which tracks most developed countries besides the US but is missing Canada. Canada's stock market is extremely un-diversified. You can mirror half of the market cap with just 10 stocks, and most of those are banks. So I briefly considered getting a few Canadian banks instead of a Canadian ETF. In the end I decided I didn't like the added complexity.

I have also briefly considered buying Diskey stock for my niece and nephew, so I can tell them that they are part owners of the company that makes their favourite movies.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by TheLaughingCow » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:21 pm

mortfree wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:09 pm
Apple, google and SiriusXM were initially purchased 2007, 2008, and ~2004 respectively.

Have added to Apple and SiriusXM along the way.

I also like BRKB and United Healthcare (UNH).

In addition to the above The only other individual stock I own now is Altria (MO) and that took a hit.
What is your logic for owning MO if you don't mind me asking? I did some research a month or 2 ago and it looked like the rate of smoking in the US had decreased by 33% in the last 10 years (and accelerating). Extrapolating that out (big assumption), it means that in 20 years there will be (effectively) 0 smokers in the US, Altria's main source of revenue. If we assume linear decay (big assumption) it means that the future cash flow of MO will be about 10x earnings, which is exactly what the company is priced at now. And that excludes things like loss of economy of scale as the smoking population shrinks, loss of lobbying power resulting in unfavorable legislation, people switching to E-cigs. So buying MO is essentially trading cash now for a similar amount of cash later, but with enormous risks in between. Basically (IMO) their only hope is their stake in JUUL and (moonshot) Cronos. Curious to hear your bullish case because I just don't see it.
Last edited by TheLaughingCow on Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:26 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Rosencrantz1 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:23 pm

adamb wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:34 pm
Thanks all, especially those who responded with something other than VTSAX, etc.

AAPL and MSFT are on the short list. Will look into the others.
I think you could certainly do worse...

Besides AAPL mentioned above, I also own a pretty big slice of XAR (aerospace and defense) and VGT (IT technology) and I've owned each for at least 5-6 years (I retired from defense/technology industry and my investments generally reflected that). Of course, both of these ETFs fly in the face of "owning the whole haystack"....

However, I've been slowly but surely replacing my sector ETFs and individual stocks with VOO/VTI. Slowly making my way to the Boglehead way of thinking :beer

mortfree
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by mortfree » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:51 pm

TheLaughingCow wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:21 pm
mortfree wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:09 pm
Apple, google and SiriusXM were initially purchased 2007, 2008, and ~2004 respectively.

Have added to Apple and SiriusXM along the way.

I also like BRKB and United Healthcare (UNH).

In addition to the above The only other individual stock I own now is Altria (MO) and that took a hit.
What is your logic for owning MO if you don't mind me asking? I did some research a month or 2 ago and it looked like the rate of smoking in the US had decreased by 33% in the last 10 years (and accelerating). Extrapolating that out (big assumption), it means that in 20 years there will be (effectively) 0 smokers in the US, Altria's main source of revenue. If we assume linear decay (big assumption) it means that the future cash flow of MO will be about 10x earnings, which is exactly what the company is priced at now. And that excludes things like loss of economy of scale as the smoking population shrinks, loss of lobbying power resulting in unfavorable legislation, people switching to E-cigs. So buying MO is essentially trading cash now for a similar amount of cash later, but with enormous risks in between. Basically (IMO) their only hope is their stake in JUUL and (moonshot) Cronos. Curious to hear your bullish case because I just don't see it.
No logic. Not bullish. Maybe the dividend. Maybe the chance of marijuana.

I have 60 shares and am currently down $850. It’s in my Roth. I can hold forever if I want since such a small percent.

TheLaughingCow
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by TheLaughingCow » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:55 pm

mortfree wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:51 pm
TheLaughingCow wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:21 pm
mortfree wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:09 pm
Apple, google and SiriusXM were initially purchased 2007, 2008, and ~2004 respectively.

Have added to Apple and SiriusXM along the way.

I also like BRKB and United Healthcare (UNH).

In addition to the above The only other individual stock I own now is Altria (MO) and that took a hit.
What is your logic for owning MO if you don't mind me asking? I did some research a month or 2 ago and it looked like the rate of smoking in the US had decreased by 33% in the last 10 years (and accelerating). Extrapolating that out (big assumption), it means that in 20 years there will be (effectively) 0 smokers in the US, Altria's main source of revenue. If we assume linear decay (big assumption) it means that the future cash flow of MO will be about 10x earnings, which is exactly what the company is priced at now. And that excludes things like loss of economy of scale as the smoking population shrinks, loss of lobbying power resulting in unfavorable legislation, people switching to E-cigs. So buying MO is essentially trading cash now for a similar amount of cash later, but with enormous risks in between. Basically (IMO) their only hope is their stake in JUUL and (moonshot) Cronos. Curious to hear your bullish case because I just don't see it.
No logic. Not bullish. Maybe the dividend. Maybe the chance of marijuana.

I have 60 shares and am currently down $850. It’s in my Roth. I can hold forever if I want since such a small percent.
Ok, thanks

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by jb1 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:57 pm

[Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy]
45 shares of Visa- visa/payment stocks are used for everything available when you think about it. Hope they split soon

40 shares of Square. My risky one in a new company. Maybe it’ll be something one day!

15 shares PayPal- I love Venmo.

Ferdinand2014
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:02 pm

BRK/B

Conservative, well diversified structure, lots of cash on hand, excellent management. However, I only own BRK/B in as much as it's in FXAIX (Fidelity 500 index fund). FXAIX is the only fund I own in fact.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by DesertDiva » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:03 pm

lazyday wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:58 pm

[Deleted -- mod oldcomputerguy]

I don’t see it that way at all, at least in this thread.

Bogleheads can be like an emotional support forum. If someone is straying into dangerous territory, they might be kindly reminded of Boglehead principles.
Exactly!!

The Bogleheads® Philosophy
1 Develop a workable plan
2 Invest early and often
3 Never bear too much or too little risk
4 Never try to time the market
5 Use index funds when possible
6 Keep costs low
7 Diversify
8 Minimize taxes
9 Keep it simple
10 Stay the course

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:15 pm

which of your children are your favorite?

when you own the market you don't have to figure out which companies to own and which ones to avoid.

the benefit of this is that you're not likely to pick the 4% of the companies that create the market (going forward) (source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2900447). Many pick the stocks that have already created the value of the market (AAPL, MSFT, etc) assuming the future will be the same as the past. Nothing could be more different. The value that will be created in the future is from the companies that will become the next AAPL, MSFT, etc. How to know which ones they are, is the rub.

don't think so? Sears was once a big company. Now not so much. Kodak, so on. Look at the changes that have occurred just in the past 24 years:

https://americanbusinesshistory.org/lar ... 1994-2018/

some companies grew and others shrank. and there was absolutely no way to know which would do which. If it was easy wouldn't everyone just buy the best (going forward) company?

96% of all companies since 1926 created no value in the market. half of them did worse than a riskless asset (a t-bill). Of 26,000 companies since 1926 only 1,040 of them created the value of the stock market. How sure are you that you'd pick the right 1,040 out of 26,000 companies?

keep buying lottery tickets. buying stocks requires overconfidence bias and recency bias.

there are only three outcomes when picking stocks:
1. you'll outperform the market
2. you'll match the market
3. you'll underperform the market

the delusion everyone believes when they pick stocks is the belief in #1 (above). You wouldn't pick individual stocks if you thought you'd lose to the market and even if you thought you'd match the market, it would make no sense to pick individual stocks. Why? While you'd have the same absolute return, you'd have a lower risk adjusted return.

so the only reason to buy individual stocks is because you believe you'll beat the market.

but so does everyone else who is doing that.

can all the children be above average?
"May you live as long as you want and never want as long as you live" -- Irish Blessing | "Invest we must" -- Jack Bogle

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by SrGrumpy » Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:21 pm

Add me to the DIS fan club; been on board since 2001. I don't care for their product, but we got lucky with Bob Iger.

I'm also in the mining giant BHP Billiton (BHP.AU). (I had a great-aunt who was with them virtually since Day 1; sadly none of that stock found its way to me.)

And finally, Fastenal (FAST), which literally makes and sells nuts and bolts. It's been on a tear in recent years, though I had to be patient.

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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb » Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:40 am

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:15 pm
which of your children are your favorite?
Right now --

I'm going to put $10,000 (<2% of my total portfolio) in a taxable account over the next few months, +$100/wk for the the next 10.5 years, rebalancing to the following allocation as it makes sense. (I haven't given rebalancing frequency any thought, but I'm not presently worried about it.)

10% Amazon (AMZN)
10% Apple (AAPL)
10% Disney (DIS)
10% Fiserv (FISV)
10% Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
10% Lockheed Martin (LMT)
10% Mastercard (MA)
10% Microsoft (MSFT)
10% Visa (V)
5% Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
5% NVIDIA (NVDA)

Maybe I've picked all losers. Maybe not. But I'm curious to see. This also lets me test out M1's features.

I take your points, at least some of them. But buying stocks doesn't take either of the biases you list, just a bit of curiosity. Moreover, my favorite children might not all be winners, but I'm confident at least five of the above will be in business for the next 10 years. Sears died. GE isn't what it once was. But I am betting V, MA, MSFT, DIS, and AMZN will be doing reasonably well for the time horizon I've laid out. Time will tell.

I'll post updates periodically with comparisons to an equally funded account allocated 100% VTSAX.

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Portfolio7
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Portfolio7 » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:45 am

I owned $2K of First Hawaiian Bank for about 6 months just to park some cash. IBM stock for about 3 years, I was making good money off of that. Obviously that was a while back. I really wanted to buy Apple in 1995-2005 time frame, but cash was scarce and I was throwing every spare dime into my 401K. Other than that I've only ever owned Mutual Funds and ETFs. Mostly Index funds.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

Sinsji
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Sinsji » Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:08 am

adamb wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:40 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:15 pm
which of your children are your favorite?
Right now --

I'm going to put $10,000 (<2% of my total portfolio) in a taxable account over the next few months, +$100/wk for the the next 10.5 years, rebalancing to the following allocation as it makes sense. (I haven't given rebalancing frequency any thought, but I'm not presently worried about it.)

10% Amazon (AMZN)
10% Apple (AAPL)
10% Disney (DIS)
10% Fiserv (FISV)
10% Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
10% Lockheed Martin (LMT)
10% Mastercard (MA)
10% Microsoft (MSFT)
10% Visa (V)
5% Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
5% NVIDIA (NVDA)

Maybe I've picked all losers. Maybe not. But I'm curious to see. This also lets me test out M1's features.

I take your points, at least some of them. But buying stocks doesn't take either of the biases you list, just a bit of curiosity. Moreover, my favorite children might not all be winners, but I'm confident at least five of the above will be in business for the next 10 years. Sears died. GE isn't what it once was. But I am betting V, MA, MSFT, DIS, and AMZN will be doing reasonably well for the time horizon I've laid out. Time will tell.

I'll post updates periodically with comparisons to an equally funded account allocated 100% VTSAX.
So out of 'curiosity' you want to allocate 10.000 dollar to ten specific companies? There are practice accounts where you can imitate whether your guess was correct ;) The companies AMZN, MSFT, AAPL and NVDA experienced above average growth over the past two decades and already are a large part of many of indexes. Not very likely these will outperform the index for another 20 years in my humble opinion. Further, my guess is that upcoming 20 years will not be like the past 20 years.

If you're happy with 'reasonably well' it is easier to go for an index tracker. If you want to be unconventional/above average, consider something a little less conventional.

In you're opening post you state reasons to 'like' a company. Without being a wise ass: there are many reasons to 'like' a company, especially within a short timeframe. I can like Disney for there latest movie or Amazon for good sales on black friday. Probably the only one you care about is risk and return in the long term?

dekecarver
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by dekecarver » Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:22 am

I think investing like this, (I call it table money), is just scratching an itch, in fact I do it. The difference between using a simulator and actually putting money on the table is the real anticipation of believing something good is gonna happen and if it doesn't, no big deal. Essentially it would suck to wake up 10 years from now with a simulator portfolio that increased substantially and thinking, well I'd done good if I'd just invested that beer and pizza $$ stash. And in the end, its not about losing the money because the amount is irrelevant, it's about the journey for some.

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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Dottie57 » Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:08 am

TNWoods wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:31 pm
AAPL because it has turned each $1.00 I spent then into $3.31 now, and it doesn't seem to be done.

TNWoods
If I were to hold Stocks it would be APPL. I did hold apple stock for a while but the volatility drove me nuts. I did make money.

EdNorton
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by EdNorton » Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:21 am

I would not recommend NVDA at this time. I purchased in January of 2016, 1000 shares @ $30, have realized gains of $210k, still have $20k worth of NVDA. My recommendation is SRPT, but be prepared for some volatility. Good luck to you.
Outside a dog, a book is man's best friend, inside a dog, it's too dark to read - Groucho

ultraviolet
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by ultraviolet » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:17 am

adamb wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:40 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 9:15 pm
which of your children are your favorite?
Right now --

I'm going to put $10,000 (<2% of my total portfolio) in a taxable account over the next few months, +$100/wk for the the next 10.5 years, rebalancing to the following allocation as it makes sense. (I haven't given rebalancing frequency any thought, but I'm not presently worried about it.)

10% Amazon (AMZN)
10% Apple (AAPL)
10% Disney (DIS)
10% Fiserv (FISV)
10% Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
10% Lockheed Martin (LMT)
10% Mastercard (MA)
10% Microsoft (MSFT)
10% Visa (V)
5% Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
5% NVIDIA (NVDA)

Maybe I've picked all losers. Maybe not. But I'm curious to see. This also lets me test out M1's features.

I take your points, at least some of them. But buying stocks doesn't take either of the biases you list, just a bit of curiosity. Moreover, my favorite children might not all be winners, but I'm confident at least five of the above will be in business for the next 10 years. Sears died. GE isn't what it once was. But I am betting V, MA, MSFT, DIS, and AMZN will be doing reasonably well for the time horizon I've laid out. Time will tell.

I'll post updates periodically with comparisons to an equally funded account allocated 100% VTSAX.
I owned most of those picks. They’re all great companies. I would wait for a dip to get AMD and NVDA. Like right now might be a decent time. However they’re very closely tied to China so you might want to wait and see how the next few weeks plays out.

Amazon in my opinion is going to keep losing online sales to target and Wal-Mart. So I don’t think it’ll grow as rapidly over the next ten years. I think it’ll end up a hodge-podge of overpriced services and counterfeit junk. But what do I know? I sold most of what I had and bought the S&P index.

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Stinky
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by Stinky » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:20 am

adamb wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:40 am

I'll post updates periodically with comparisons to an equally funded account allocated 100% VTSAX.
Looking forward to your updates. It will be interesting to track your portfolio over time vs broader market indices.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

james22
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by james22 » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:37 am

I'm 20% Berkshire and 10% Brookfield Asset Management today because I believe them better valued than the market and will prove anti-fragile.

I've another 15% Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common and preferred shares because [reasons].

finfire
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by finfire » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:41 am

Visa.

Why? Because I hold it and it's done well.

No other individual stocks for me.

rich126
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by rich126 » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:57 am

ISRG? Wow, that brings back some memories. I owned it a few times back in either 1999 or maybe 2003 and made some good money off it. Haven't followed it in years.

BRKB - IMO it is significantly undervalued compared to the market overall. Often when the market takes off, the steady stocks are left behind and this is currently happening.

AAPL - Had this for a while now.
GOOG - Ditto
USB is a solid bank.
FB - Not a fan but when things tanked late last year it was a bargain.

MSFT - Never got around to buying it to my regret.

And a few DRIP stocks that I should sell but I've had since the early 1990s when commissions were high - Chevron, Kelloggs, and Pfizer. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I was looking at Chevron, which was Texaco when I bought it and the current dividend is such a high percentage of my original purchase price it is hard to sell it. I guess I can just try to transfer these into a brokerage?

guyinlaw
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by guyinlaw » Tue Dec 03, 2019 10:04 am

NTSX WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced ETF

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LilyFleur
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by LilyFleur » Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:15 pm

Boeing.
A bit troubled at the moment, but I think it will recover.
It pays dividends.
I am somewhat sentimental about it. During a very rough time of my life, the dividends kept me out of credit card debt.

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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:49 pm

Sinsji wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:08 am
So out of 'curiosity' you want to allocate 10.000 dollar to ten specific companies?
In some sense, yes. I'm curious if I can pick a handful of stocks and manage them in a way that will beat my more traditional boggleheaded holdings in VTSAX and VTIAX over the next 10 years, and I'm willing to put a small portion of my portfolio behind that curiosity.

Practice accounts are just that... and at least for me, they don't provide the chance to feel like I've done something or I haven't. They also don't require the commitment necessary to think critically about rebalancing criteria, which is really what I'm most curious about.

And $10,000? Well, $1,000 isn't really commitment. $100,000 seems way to deep given my core investment beliefs. And $10,000 seems about right.
Sinsji wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:08 am
In you're opening post you state reasons to 'like' a company. Without being a wise ass: there are many reasons to 'like' a company, especially within a short timeframe. I can like Disney for there latest movie or Amazon for good sales on black friday. Probably the only one you care about is risk and return in the long term?
I was looking for reasons for me to investigate a company. These could be a value proposition that resonates with me, an anomalously consistent rate of return, or even the location of the company.

Black friday sales and one-off movies are not relevant reasons for me to investigate a company that I'm considering putting $1k in now and $5k in over the next ten years.

Examples that go both ways--

Athan responded with AGEN, and mentioned "the drugs in their pipeline are excellent and second to none." I read up on this and agree but decided not to invest because in the best case scenario, that they cure cancer, I don't believe they should take (or governments would allow) huge profits.

On the other hand, I stumbled upon FISV while ripping through the top 100 holdings in VGT and was curious what strategy has driven such a consistently profitable trend. Total returns over the past 25 years annualize to 17.95%. This doesn't beat Apple (24.2%) over the same period, but it beats Microsoft (16.5%) and crushes the S&P500 (9.13%) and Dow 30 (8.16%). It also has a curiously low beta (0.85).

To the point, FISV has consistent leadership, a value proposition that makes sense going into a cashless society, 34 consecutive years of double digit EPS growth, and it's based in my home state of Wisconsin.

Many of the above are relevant reasons for me to like FISV, and on the whole, they are reason enough for me to be comfortable putting real money into it over the next 10 years.

Yes, Sears went out of business, but that isn't a good enough reason for me to wholly ignore a company that has stable leadership, a strong value proposition, and has nearly doubled the returns of the S&P500 over the past 25 years with significantly less volatility.

YMMV

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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:53 pm

dekecarver wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:22 am
I think investing like this, (I call it table money), is just scratching an itch, in fact I do it. The difference between using a simulator and actually putting money on the table is the real anticipation of believing something good is gonna happen and if it doesn't, no big deal. Essentially it would suck to wake up 10 years from now with a simulator portfolio that increased substantially and thinking, well I'd done good if I'd just invested that beer and pizza $$ stash. And in the end, its not about losing the money because the amount is irrelevant, it's about the journey for some.
Accurate and well stated.

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adamb
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Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Post by adamb » Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:57 pm

EdNorton wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:21 am
I would not recommend NVDA at this time. I purchased in January of 2016, 1000 shares @ $30, have realized gains of $210k, still have $20k worth of NVDA. My recommendation is SRPT, but be prepared for some volatility. Good luck to you.
Thanks for this. I've been back and forth on AMD and NVDA.

SRPT seems interesting, but for me it's too speculative. I dislike pharma as a class, and SRPT is still pre-profitability.

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