Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:44 pm

RJC wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:17 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:12 pm
RJC wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:45 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:31 am
Bogleheads -

The Two Fund Portfolio page of the wiki has been added:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Two-fund_portfolio
Excellent! :beer
Hi RJC -

Do you invest in a simple Two Fund Portfolio?
More like a one-fund portfolio - VTSAX and a sizable EF (in a savings account). It's worked well for us.
:thumbsup :thumbsup

A wonderful and simple portfolio that is effective.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:55 pm

BalancedJCB19 wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 5:21 pm
I used to know someone who loved the balanced index fund and had their entire net worth in it. They did very well and never had to fuss with it.
I have colleagues that have done this. Never tinkered and only bought. I became financially independent and retired just fine.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by oldzey » Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:27 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:31 am
Bogleheads -

The Two Fund Portfolio page of the wiki has been added:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Two-fund_portfolio
:thumbsup :thumbsup

A great addition to the Bogleheads® Wiki.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Snowjob » Sat Nov 30, 2019 11:45 pm

longinvest wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:37 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Nov 30, 2019 2:41 pm
My understanding is over the long term it should not make much difference between a US only portfolio compared to a US & International portfolio.

Then I read some of the statistics earlier going back over 100 years!

Perhaps the outperformance of the US may not continue and will evolve to the US and International returns being close.

Why then, assuming the returns of both US & International may be close moving forward (and that is a "may be"), would one want to include international when considering the additional risk should result in additional reward? I feel as if for all the additional risk assumed that I am never compensated in the form of additional return.

It appears as if the reward never shows up!
(I added the red emphasis in the quoted post.)

Dear Abuss368,

Don't you think that a portfolio concentrated into the stock and bond securities of a single winning country, the US, could deliver a significant reward for its concentration risk?

The thing is this: taking risk can result into great rewards, but it can also result into steep penalties, as Japanese domestic-only stock investors have learned over the last three decades.

Investing into a diversified portfolio which includes both domestic and international securities (possibly with a moderate home bias) will always underperform the higher performing market. A diversified portfolio is never the best performing one.

Choosing investments based on emotions is very dangerous to one's wealth; it can easily lead to investing into the best performing assets of the past. You've been a member of this forum since 2009 and you've written over 15,000 posts. I think that you know that this wouldn't be a good approach to investing.

The goal of Bogleheads investing isn't to win; it's to not lose. Broadly diversifying one's investments leads to boring average returns. But, that's exactly what Bogleheads are looking for: reliably getting average returns, guaranteeing that they'll never be losers!

Best regards,

longinvest

P.S. This is a copy of the reply I made to your identical post on another thread.
I believe longvest has the right line of reasoning here. I’m a big fan of being about 60% global and 40% domestic — that moderate home country bias. Over the next 50 years I would expect my US:INT split to range from about 80-20ish today to 60:40ish depending on a range of outcomes where the US might become a smaller piece of the pie. I like the sliding exposure instead of the fixed however. I also like the market signaling how much the allocation should be instead of an arbitrary ratio that I rebalance to continuously. The only thing that stops me from being 100% VT is that I don’t want to fall to far behind my peers since I live in the US and the participants in my local economy will see their fortunes rise and fall mostly with how the US markets do. Being half weight if the US continues to dominate might be a real bummer as I lose ground versus my peers. We’re i to live in a much smaller country I’d probably stick with just the global allocation.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:32 pm

Jack Bogle: In my first book, in 1993, I wrote that U.S. corporations get about 50 percent of their profits from international sources. So if you own a U.S. stock fund, you already own an international fund. Since then, the U.S. market is up about 720 percent, and the non-U.S. market — the European, Australian and Far East indexes — is up about 230 percent. And you are taking currency risk if you invest overseas.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by fortyofforty » Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:05 am

abuss368 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:32 pm
Jack Bogle: In my first book, in 1993, I wrote that U.S. corporations get about 50 percent of their profits from international sources. So if you own a U.S. stock fund, you already own an international fund. Since then, the U.S. market is up about 720 percent, and the non-U.S. market — the European, Australian and Far East indexes — is up about 230 percent. And you are taking currency risk if you invest overseas.
In effect, when you buy a total United States stock market index fund, you are adding an actively managed international fund.
Indexing works, not because of magic, but because of math. | Diligentia. Vis. Celeritas. - Jeff Cooper | Original Vanguard Diehard

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:31 pm

Bogleheads -

I added to our portfolio today and wanted to express how much easier and enjoyable it was to add to only two funds and not six funds in each account. The whole purchase took only a few minutes.

Mr. Bogle was right all these years: these two funds are all that is needed.

The complexity, endless rebalancing, higher costs.....I do not miss it.

The older I get the more I appreciate simplicity.
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Total Stock Market Index Fund is my favorite fund."
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm

I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:42 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Hi Ferdinand2014 -

That is an interesting strategy and one that I do read about from time to time. Essentially keep what amount one needs in cash or bonds and simply invest the rest.

Simplicity at its best.
Last edited by abuss368 on Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:13 pm

fortyofforty wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:05 am
abuss368 wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:32 pm
Jack Bogle: In my first book, in 1993, I wrote that U.S. corporations get about 50 percent of their profits from international sources. So if you own a U.S. stock fund, you already own an international fund. Since then, the U.S. market is up about 720 percent, and the non-U.S. market — the European, Australian and Far East indexes — is up about 230 percent. And you are taking currency risk if you invest overseas.
In effect, when you buy a total United States stock market index fund, you are adding an actively managed international fund.
“International operations are a major driver of the S&P 500’s earnings growth. In the past decade, almost 40 percent of its revenue growth has come from international markets, and in some years it’s been as high as almost 60 percent. This trend is in-line with “World- ex-USA” accounting for most of the world’s economic output growth in the past decade. The S&P 500’s percentage of foreign sales is economically significant and increasing with the rise of foreign economies. The geographic distribution of S&P 500 constituents’ foreign sales is following trends in global gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The bigger the company (greater its index weight), the more its growth is driven by overseas markets”

https://napllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2 ... raniDe.pdf

You get the benefit of a stable large economy as a base with tentacles of global companies spreading there growth opportunities across the globe in opportunistic ways based on currency, local growth, tax laws, etc. All for my measly 0.015 expense ratio S&P 500 fund.
Last edited by Ferdinand2014 on Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:24 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:42 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Hi Ferdinand2014 -

That is an interesting strategy nd one that I do read about from time to time. Essentially keep what amount on needs in cash or bonds and simply invest the rest.

Simplicity at its best.
Instead of focusing on reducing volatility such as with an asset allocation rebalancing strategy, you focus your fixed income on defined needs such as a minimum income defined by amount and time. The rest in equities for inflation beating growth potential. With this approach, your fixed income allocation is usually individual bonds and of the highest quality - U.S. treasury. As you never wish to risk the fixed income defined amount, it is never rebalanced into equities. So my general plan is t-bills mostly as emergency income while I’m working, transitioning to a TIPS ladder closer to retirement liability matched.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Are the t-bills in your taxable account purchased from Treasury Direct?

Ferdinand2014
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:37 pm

Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Are the t-bills in your taxable account purchased from Treasury Direct?
Fidelity. At auction (Tuesday for most t-bills) set on auto-roll. It’s free to buy and set up auto-roll. On the rare occasion I needed the cash, I sell on secondary market. As t-bills are the most liquid investment in the world, I get the cash credit from Fidelity for transfer within about 5-10 seconds. Caveat is can only sell 8-5 M-F when bond market open. The spread on the secondary market seems to be consistently 0.001. Minimum $1,000 and maximum non competitive auction is $5million. $0 cost.
Last edited by Ferdinand2014 on Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Triple digit golfer » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:41 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:37 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Are the t-bills in your taxable account purchased from Treasury Direct?
Fidelity. At auction (Tuesday for most t-bills) set on auto-roll. It’s free to buy and set up auto-roll. On the rare occasion I needed the cash, I sell on secondary market. As t-bills are the most liquid investment in the world, I get the cash credit from Fidelity for transfer within about 5-10 seconds. Caveat is can only sell 8-5 M-F when bond market open. Minimum $1,000 and maximum non competitive auction is $5million. $0 cost.
Interesting portfolio. 2 years expenses, everything else in equities. Do you mind sharing your age and what your plans are for the portfolio as you get closer to retirement?

rascott
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by rascott » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:49 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:10 pm
oldzey wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:09 pm
You could also write to Berkshire Hathaway, describing Taylor's name for the B & B portfolio.
oldzey:

As much as I admire the B & B two-fund portfolio, I prefer the Three-Fund Portfolio because it includes 20% international exposure for "portfolio insurance."

In December 1989 the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index was about 38,000. Today, 30 years later, the Nikkei 225 is about 22,000. Japanese investors who invested entirely in Japanese stocks, are devastated. This could happen to U.S. investors who invest entirely in U.S. stocks.

The return of our money is more important than the return on our money.

Best wishes.
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom (2018): "No one knows what tomorrow may bring. But I'm inclined to stick by my earlier conclusion that holdings of non-U.S. stocks should be limited to no more than 20% of equity."

As much as it's good to advocate no market timing, ignoring the noise, etc..... its downright malfeasance to ignore general market valuation fundamentals. The trailing P/E ratio in Japan in '89 was 65..... it went up over 75 a year later..... and then went basically off the charts insane around 2000......it never hit what would be considered "reasonable levels until the mid 2000s.... and then ballooned again during the GFC.

Japan from a fundamental level has been an extremely overvalued market for 35 years.... compared to any historical norm. If the US were to go to those levels (such as they did in 2000 briefly) and stay that way for years/ decades..... it would be negligence to just blindly say this is ok.... trust the market.

Being a good investor doesn't mean you just stick your head in the sand no matter what is going on around you.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by CDub » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:50 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:37 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Are the t-bills in your taxable account purchased from Treasury Direct?
Fidelity. At auction (Tuesday for most t-bills) set on auto-roll. It’s free to buy and set up auto-roll. On the rare occasion I needed the cash, I sell on secondary market. As t-bills are the most liquid investment in the world, I get the cash credit from Fidelity for transfer within about 5-10 seconds. Caveat is can only sell 8-5 M-F when bond market open. The spread on the secondary market seems to be consistently 0.001. Minimum $1,000 and maximum non competitive auction is $5million. $0 cost.


Why auto roll t-bills? Why not just use a HYSA or stick it in vanguard money market?

Ferdinand2014
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:56 pm

CDub wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:50 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:37 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Are the t-bills in your taxable account purchased from Treasury Direct?
Fidelity. At auction (Tuesday for most t-bills) set on auto-roll. It’s free to buy and set up auto-roll. On the rare occasion I needed the cash, I sell on secondary market. As t-bills are the most liquid investment in the world, I get the cash credit from Fidelity for transfer within about 5-10 seconds. Caveat is can only sell 8-5 M-F when bond market open. The spread on the secondary market seems to be consistently 0.001. Minimum $1,000 and maximum non competitive auction is $5million. $0 cost.


Why auto roll t-bills? Why not just use a HYSA or stick it in vanguard money market?
Safest investment in the world. No counter-party risk. Don’t have vanguard and want to stick with 1 investment firm (Fidelity). State tax deductible. No withdrawal penalty. Immediately available. No expense ratio. Zero cost.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:59 pm

Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:41 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:37 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Are the t-bills in your taxable account purchased from Treasury Direct?
Fidelity. At auction (Tuesday for most t-bills) set on auto-roll. It’s free to buy and set up auto-roll. On the rare occasion I needed the cash, I sell on secondary market. As t-bills are the most liquid investment in the world, I get the cash credit from Fidelity for transfer within about 5-10 seconds. Caveat is can only sell 8-5 M-F when bond market open. Minimum $1,000 and maximum non competitive auction is $5million. $0 cost.
Interesting portfolio. 2 years expenses, everything else in equities. Do you mind sharing your age and what your plans are for the portfolio as you get closer to retirement?
I would be interested as well. A simple but sounds like very effective two fund portfolio.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:01 pm

rascott wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:49 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:10 pm
oldzey wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:09 pm
You could also write to Berkshire Hathaway, describing Taylor's name for the B & B portfolio.
oldzey:

As much as I admire the B & B two-fund portfolio, I prefer the Three-Fund Portfolio because it includes 20% international exposure for "portfolio insurance."

In December 1989 the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index was about 38,000. Today, 30 years later, the Nikkei 225 is about 22,000. Japanese investors who invested entirely in Japanese stocks, are devastated. This could happen to U.S. investors who invest entirely in U.S. stocks.

The return of our money is more important than the return on our money.

Best wishes.
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom (2018): "No one knows what tomorrow may bring. But I'm inclined to stick by my earlier conclusion that holdings of non-U.S. stocks should be limited to no more than 20% of equity."

As much as it's good to advocate no market timing, ignoring the noise, etc..... its downright malfeasance to ignore general market valuation fundamentals. The trailing P/E ratio in Japan in '89 was 65..... it went up over 75 a year later..... and then went basically off the charts insane around 2000......it never hit what would be considered "reasonable levels until the mid 2000s.... and then ballooned again during the GFC.

Japan from a fundamental level has been an extremely overvalued market for 35 years.... compared to any historical norm. If the US were to go to those levels (such as they did in 2000 briefly) and stay that way for years/ decades..... it would be negligence to just blindly say this is ok.... trust the market.

Being a good investor doesn't mean you just stick your head in the sand no matter what is going on around you.
Not so sure. Perhaps if Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett would have recommended international I would consider.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

Ferdinand2014
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:18 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:59 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:41 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:37 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 pm
I also have the 2-fund portfolio - version Warren Buffett. I go a step further to make it even simpler. I do not have an asset allocation so I never need to rebalance or calculate contributions or percents. I simply keep enough t-bills to sleep well (currently 2 years of expenses) and invest cash with both hands into FXAIX Er 0.015 (Fidelity 500 index) in every account I have as soon as I have it. My t-bills cost $0. Doesn’t get much cheaper or simpler. Couldn’t be more pleased.
Are the t-bills in your taxable account purchased from Treasury Direct?
Fidelity. At auction (Tuesday for most t-bills) set on auto-roll. It’s free to buy and set up auto-roll. On the rare occasion I needed the cash, I sell on secondary market. As t-bills are the most liquid investment in the world, I get the cash credit from Fidelity for transfer within about 5-10 seconds. Caveat is can only sell 8-5 M-F when bond market open. Minimum $1,000 and maximum non competitive auction is $5million. $0 cost.
Interesting portfolio. 2 years expenses, everything else in equities. Do you mind sharing your age and what your plans are for the portfolio as you get closer to retirement?
I would be interested as well. A simple but sounds like very effective two fund portfolio.
Mid-career. 10-15 years from no longer working. When I am closer to retirement (5 years?), I plan to convert my t-bills and some of my equities into a TIPS bond ladder matched to my basic income needs. Whatever is left over will be left in equities possibly to bequeath my children. I see my current income as an inflation adjusted TIPS ladder. The T-bills are there in case my income is disrupted.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:33 pm

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:18 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:59 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:41 pm
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:37 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:29 pm


Are the t-bills in your taxable account purchased from Treasury Direct?
Fidelity. At auction (Tuesday for most t-bills) set on auto-roll. It’s free to buy and set up auto-roll. On the rare occasion I needed the cash, I sell on secondary market. As t-bills are the most liquid investment in the world, I get the cash credit from Fidelity for transfer within about 5-10 seconds. Caveat is can only sell 8-5 M-F when bond market open. Minimum $1,000 and maximum non competitive auction is $5million. $0 cost.
Interesting portfolio. 2 years expenses, everything else in equities. Do you mind sharing your age and what your plans are for the portfolio as you get closer to retirement?
I would be interested as well. A simple but sounds like very effective two fund portfolio.
Mid-career. 10-15 years from no longer working. When I am closer to retirement (5 years?), I plan to convert my t-bills and some of my equities into a TIPS bond ladder matched to my basic income needs. Whatever is left over will be left in equities possibly to bequeath my children. I see my current income as an inflation adjusted TIPS ladder. The T-bills are there in case my income is disrupted.
You have a good plan and the Two Fund Portfolio should get you there.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Alchemist » Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:08 am

Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:56 pm
Safest investment in the world. No counter-party risk. Don’t have vanguard and want to stick with 1 investment firm (Fidelity). State tax deductible. No withdrawal penalty. Immediately available. No expense ratio. Zero cost.
I have a very similar AA. I often say I am 90/10 stocks/STT's but really I am not actually tracking a specific percentage. I keep enough in cash/STT's to sleep well at night. Currently that equates to around a year of expenses. The only rebalancing I do is one way, from STT to stock when there is a large dip like last December.

I use FUMBX for the short term treasuries. It is Fidelity's 1-5 year treasury index fund. At 3 bps it is cheaper than a money market market fund with as good or better yield. Everything else is in US TSM funds.

I am 32 and plan to keep this AA for at least another couple decades. When I get closer to full retirement age I will likely shift to a more conservative AA with TBM.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:52 am

Alchemist wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:08 am
Ferdinand2014 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:56 pm
Safest investment in the world. No counter-party risk. Don’t have vanguard and want to stick with 1 investment firm (Fidelity). State tax deductible. No withdrawal penalty. Immediately available. No expense ratio. Zero cost.
I have a very similar AA. I often say I am 90/10 stocks/STT's but really I am not actually tracking a specific percentage. I keep enough in cash/STT's to sleep well at night. Currently that equates to around a year of expenses. The only rebalancing I do is one way, from STT to stock when there is a large dip like last December.

I use FUMBX for the short term treasuries. It is Fidelity's 1-5 year treasury index fund. At 3 bps it is cheaper than a money market market fund with as good or better yield. Everything else is in US TSM funds.

I am 32 and plan to keep this AA for at least another couple decades. When I get closer to full retirement age I will likely shift to a more conservative AA with TBM.
Essentially you have a Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Short Term Treasuries. I like your approach. It appears you have not complicated things with international and other additional funds.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by UpperNwGuy » Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:32 am

rascott wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:49 pm
As much as it's good to advocate no market timing, ignoring the noise, etc..... its downright malfeasance to ignore general market valuation fundamentals. The trailing P/E ratio in Japan in '89 was 65..... it went up over 75 a year later..... and then went basically off the charts insane around 2000......it never hit what would be considered "reasonable levels until the mid 2000s.... and then ballooned again during the GFC.

Japan from a fundamental level has been an extremely overvalued market for 35 years.... compared to any historical norm. If the US were to go to those levels (such as they did in 2000 briefly) and stay that way for years/ decades..... it would be negligence to just blindly say this is ok.... trust the market.

Being a good investor doesn't mean you just stick your head in the sand no matter what is going on around you.
I disagree. i have hitched my wagon to the US market and will ride the roller coaster up and down. It has always gone up in the long run even if it takes some downward dives in the short run. I ignore valuations.

(And, by the way, I hate all these frequent Japan comparisons because the US of 2019 is not the Japan of 1989.)

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:33 am

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:32 am
(And, by the way, I hate all these frequent Japan comparisons because the US of 2019 is not the Japan of 1989.)
:sharebeer
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by rascott » Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:45 am

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:32 am
rascott wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:49 pm
As much as it's good to advocate no market timing, ignoring the noise, etc..... its downright malfeasance to ignore general market valuation fundamentals. The trailing P/E ratio in Japan in '89 was 65..... it went up over 75 a year later..... and then went basically off the charts insane around 2000......it never hit what would be considered "reasonable levels until the mid 2000s.... and then ballooned again during the GFC.

Japan from a fundamental level has been an extremely overvalued market for 35 years.... compared to any historical norm. If the US were to go to those levels (such as they did in 2000 briefly) and stay that way for years/ decades..... it would be negligence to just blindly say this is ok.... trust the market.

Being a good investor doesn't mean you just stick your head in the sand no matter what is going on around you.
I disagree. i have hitched my wagon to the US market and will ride the roller coaster up and down. It has always gone up in the long run even if it takes some downward dives in the short run. I ignore valuations.

(And, by the way, I hate all these frequent Japan comparisons because the US of 2019 is not the Japan of 1989.)
Well the US never has had outlandish valuations other than for a short lived time during the dotcom boom..... which not surprisingly was followed by a decade of basically 0 return. Even Bogle moved heavily out of equities at that time. And even then they didn't approach nearly the bubble levels of Japan.

Japan equities were the biggest asset bubble in modern times. I highly doubt we'd ever see the US get close to that territory.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Alchemist » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:01 am

abuss368 wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:52 am
Essentially you have a Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Short Term Treasuries. I like your approach. It appears you have not complicated things with international and other additional funds.
That is exactly correct. It could be fair to say I have a "Buffett" portfolio. Many people criticize Bogle and Buffett for not being realistic or modern in their portfolio advice, but it is hard to argue with success. Jack Bogle recommended a two fund portfolio going back 30 years. He was right.
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:32 am
(And, by the way, I hate all these frequent Japan comparisons because the US of 2019 is not the Japan of 1989.)
The US is a unique country with a unique economy that plays a central role to the global economy. There really is no analogue to it. That is why I always cringe when people refer to the U.S. stock-market as just another in a list of dozen of markets. The fact is that, at least for the foreseeable future, if the U.S. market goes down for the long haul the rest of the world will go with it. The reverse is not true. Europe or Asia or Emerging markets could tank while the U.S. chugs along.
Last edited by Alchemist on Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:20 am

Alchemist wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:01 am
The US is a unique country with a unique economy that plays a central role to the global economy. There really is no analogue to it.
This is what Warren Buffett has said forever. No other country has ever unleashed human capital and potential.

As a matter of opinion, I simply grew tired of waiting around forever with international. And that is international stocks, real estate, and bonds. I was taking higher risk for the possibility of higher reward. That of course never showed up. My portfolio would be much higher if I listened to the Master (Bogle & Buffett) from the start.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:22 am

Alchemist wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:01 am
That is exactly correct. It could be fair to say I have a "Buffett" portfolio. Many people critics Bogle and Buffett for not being realistic or modern in their portfolio advice, but it is hard to argue with success. Jack Bogle recommended a two fund portfolio going back 30 years. He was right.
Yes, "Bogle on Mutual Funds"! Almost 30 years ago. In hindsight, Mr. Bogle was right. Total Stock and Total Bond. Nothing else is needed.

His other amazing book: "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" essentially recommends the Two Fund Portfolio all over the book.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by tibbitts » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:31 am

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:32 am
rascott wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:49 pm
As much as it's good to advocate no market timing, ignoring the noise, etc..... its downright malfeasance to ignore general market valuation fundamentals. The trailing P/E ratio in Japan in '89 was 65..... it went up over 75 a year later..... and then went basically off the charts insane around 2000......it never hit what would be considered "reasonable levels until the mid 2000s.... and then ballooned again during the GFC.

Japan from a fundamental level has been an extremely overvalued market for 35 years.... compared to any historical norm. If the US were to go to those levels (such as they did in 2000 briefly) and stay that way for years/ decades..... it would be negligence to just blindly say this is ok.... trust the market.

Being a good investor doesn't mean you just stick your head in the sand no matter what is going on around you.
I disagree. i have hitched my wagon to the US market and will ride the roller coaster up and down. It has always gone up in the long run even if it takes some downward dives in the short run. I ignore valuations.

(And, by the way, I hate all these frequent Japan comparisons because the US of 2019 is not the Japan of 1989.)
There was probably more consensus (at least inside the US) that the future looked bright for Japan in the 1980s than there is for the US in the 2010s, but I'm not sure that's why you feel the comparison is wrong.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Ferdinand2014 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:42 pm

tibbitts wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:31 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:32 am
rascott wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:49 pm
As much as it's good to advocate no market timing, ignoring the noise, etc..... its downright malfeasance to ignore general market valuation fundamentals. The trailing P/E ratio in Japan in '89 was 65..... it went up over 75 a year later..... and then went basically off the charts insane around 2000......it never hit what would be considered "reasonable levels until the mid 2000s.... and then ballooned again during the GFC.

Japan from a fundamental level has been an extremely overvalued market for 35 years.... compared to any historical norm. If the US were to go to those levels (such as they did in 2000 briefly) and stay that way for years/ decades..... it would be negligence to just blindly say this is ok.... trust the market.

Being a good investor doesn't mean you just stick your head in the sand no matter what is going on around you.
I disagree. i have hitched my wagon to the US market and will ride the roller coaster up and down. It has always gone up in the long run even if it takes some downward dives in the short run. I ignore valuations.

(And, by the way, I hate all these frequent Japan comparisons because the US of 2019 is not the Japan of 1989.)
There was probably more consensus (at least inside the US) that the future looked bright for Japan in the 1980s than there is for the US in the 2010s, but I'm not sure that's why you feel the comparison is wrong.
I remember growing up in Michigan in the 1980’s. All gloom and doom. Japan was supposed to become the dominant world economy. We were supposedly a has been country rife with problems and no future.
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.“ — Warren Buffett

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by pascalwager » Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:33 pm

Two funds won't work for me. I use the following six (6) funds: total US stocks, total international stocks, developed markets, emerging markets, total bond market, and inflation protected securities. My portfolio is a 50/50 AA, US/non-US, and it's too late to change after 24 years. Also, I'm a retiree, so more diversification (international, EM) is important as opposed to less.

I listened to a Gus Sauter (former Vanguard CIO) interview the other day. He said that Jack Bogle and he agreed on practically nothing and their relationship was a continuing debate over decades. Gus says that now is the time to be getting into international, and possibly value, rather than fleeing, because of more attractive valuations; but he doesn't advise factor investing for most investors because of the long periods of underperformance.

I don't want to chase performance at the cost of equity diversification. Average global returns have been adequate for my personal situation, but I certainly hope, of course, that international rebounds in the next few years.

Note: I also have a large, legacy DFA equities portfolio that hasn't been internally rebalanced since 2011 and I use the above Vanguard developed and emerging market funds to provide external rebalancing (maintaining an overall 50/50 AA). Otherwise, I could operate with a simpler four-fund Vanguard portfolio.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by xxd091 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:49 am

What you are doing is right for you and looks good
What others want is a simpler life
This probably but not alway will result in slightly lesser returns but if you have made enough then the compromise may be worth it in a number of ways
Simpler,cheaper easier to follow and even your wife understands it(can I say that!)-she leaves the money management to me
As I get older I want more time to myself(to do other things than manage money) less hassle and to make life simpler for my inheritors
Each to their own
xxd09

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 12:05 pm

No one knows what the future may bring. Over the last 30 plus years the outperformance (not so sure on a risk adjusted basis however) of international to US has been infrequent.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by bgf » Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:18 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:01 pm
rascott wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:49 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 11:10 pm
oldzey wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:09 pm
You could also write to Berkshire Hathaway, describing Taylor's name for the B & B portfolio.
oldzey:

As much as I admire the B & B two-fund portfolio, I prefer the Three-Fund Portfolio because it includes 20% international exposure for "portfolio insurance."

In December 1989 the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index was about 38,000. Today, 30 years later, the Nikkei 225 is about 22,000. Japanese investors who invested entirely in Japanese stocks, are devastated. This could happen to U.S. investors who invest entirely in U.S. stocks.

The return of our money is more important than the return on our money.

Best wishes.
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom (2018): "No one knows what tomorrow may bring. But I'm inclined to stick by my earlier conclusion that holdings of non-U.S. stocks should be limited to no more than 20% of equity."

As much as it's good to advocate no market timing, ignoring the noise, etc..... its downright malfeasance to ignore general market valuation fundamentals. The trailing P/E ratio in Japan in '89 was 65..... it went up over 75 a year later..... and then went basically off the charts insane around 2000......it never hit what would be considered "reasonable levels until the mid 2000s.... and then ballooned again during the GFC.

Japan from a fundamental level has been an extremely overvalued market for 35 years.... compared to any historical norm. If the US were to go to those levels (such as they did in 2000 briefly) and stay that way for years/ decades..... it would be negligence to just blindly say this is ok.... trust the market.

Being a good investor doesn't mean you just stick your head in the sand no matter what is going on around you.
Not so sure. Perhaps if Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett would have recommended international I would consider.
maybe the next warren buffett already is.
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by DartThrower » Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:05 pm

Alchemist wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:01 am
abuss368 wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:52 am
Essentially you have a Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Short Term Treasuries. I like your approach. It appears you have not complicated things with international and other additional funds.
That is exactly correct. It could be fair to say I have a "Buffett" portfolio. Many people criticize Bogle and Buffett for not being realistic or modern in their portfolio advice, but it is hard to argue with success. Jack Bogle recommended a two fund portfolio going back 30 years. He was right.
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:32 am
(And, by the way, I hate all these frequent Japan comparisons because the US of 2019 is not the Japan of 1989.)
The US is a unique country with a unique economy that plays a central role to the global economy. There really is no analogue to it. That is why I always cringe when people refer to the U.S. stock-market as just another in a list of dozen of markets. The fact is that, at least for the foreseeable future, if the U.S. market goes down for the long haul the rest of the world will go with it. The reverse is not true. Europe or Asia or Emerging markets could tank while the U.S. chugs along.
While I don't think it's possible for the US economy to "go down" for the long haul while the international economy thrives, I do believe it's possible for the US economy to do reasonably well while its stock market disappoints. In this later scenario it's entirely possible for the international stock markets and economy to shine. Just because this hasn't happened recently doesn't mean it won't ever happen. I prepare for this possibility by having signifcant international stock exposure. It does not bother me in the least that the US market has outperformed in the last 10+ years, and that this outperformance seems to confirm Bogle's and Buffet's advice. In my mind it doesn't.

Bogle's statement that "nobody knows nuthin" somewhat contradicts his home country bias in my opinion for the reasons I gave above. Bogle's other advice, such as staying the course, keeping costs low and diversifying has had by far the dominant (and very positive) impact on my investment results. I have gotten "my fair share" of global investment returns and I couldn't really be any happier. I plan to continue this into the future.

Best of luck to all!
A Boglehead can stay the course longer than the market can stay irrational.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:42 pm

I was reviewing Vanguard's portfolio tool online. I compared our prior multi fund 6 Pack portfolio of Total Stock, Total International, US REIT, International REIT, Total Bond, & Total International Bond to our new Jack Bogle Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond.

Vanguard's portfolio analysis tool compares returns from 1926 - present. Almost 100 years.

Over that period of time, the result was a 0.01% difference.

Our take away: Listen to Jack Bogle and "keep investing simple"!
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by FrugalInvestor » Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:54 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:42 pm
I was reviewing Vanguard's portfolio tool online. I compared our prior multi fund 6 Pack portfolio of Total Stock, Total International, US REIT, International REIT, Total Bond, & Total International Bond to our new Jack Bogle Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond.

Vanguard's portfolio analysis tool compares returns from 1926 - present. Almost 100 years.

Over that period of time, the result was a 0.01% difference.

Our take away: Listen to Jack Bogle and "keep investing simple"!
Does that portfolio comparison tool take costs into account?
IGNORE the noise! | Our life is frittered away by detail... simplify, simplify. - Henry David Thoreau

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:00 pm

FrugalInvestor wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:54 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:42 pm
I was reviewing Vanguard's portfolio tool online. I compared our prior multi fund 6 Pack portfolio of Total Stock, Total International, US REIT, International REIT, Total Bond, & Total International Bond to our new Jack Bogle Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond.

Vanguard's portfolio analysis tool compares returns from 1926 - present. Almost 100 years.

Over that period of time, the result was a 0.01% difference.

Our take away: Listen to Jack Bogle and "keep investing simple"!
Does that portfolio comparison tool take costs into account?
Not sure would have to look. Have you tried the tool?
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by DB2 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:09 pm

Any link to the tool?

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by FrugalInvestor » Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:26 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:00 pm
FrugalInvestor wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:54 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:42 pm
I was reviewing Vanguard's portfolio tool online. I compared our prior multi fund 6 Pack portfolio of Total Stock, Total International, US REIT, International REIT, Total Bond, & Total International Bond to our new Jack Bogle Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond.

Vanguard's portfolio analysis tool compares returns from 1926 - present. Almost 100 years.

Over that period of time, the result was a 0.01% difference.

Our take away: Listen to Jack Bogle and "keep investing simple"!
Does that portfolio comparison tool take costs into account?
Not sure would have to look. Have you tried the tool?
No, I'm a 3-funder turned 2-funder and really have no reason to. I suspect though that taking expenses into account (if it doesn't already) would make the difference between the two greater.
IGNORE the noise! | Our life is frittered away by detail... simplify, simplify. - Henry David Thoreau

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:15 pm

DB2 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:09 pm
Any link to the tool?
You have to sign into your account and use portfolio tools.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:16 pm

FrugalInvestor wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:26 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 5:00 pm
FrugalInvestor wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:54 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:42 pm
I was reviewing Vanguard's portfolio tool online. I compared our prior multi fund 6 Pack portfolio of Total Stock, Total International, US REIT, International REIT, Total Bond, & Total International Bond to our new Jack Bogle Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond.

Vanguard's portfolio analysis tool compares returns from 1926 - present. Almost 100 years.

Over that period of time, the result was a 0.01% difference.

Our take away: Listen to Jack Bogle and "keep investing simple"!
Does that portfolio comparison tool take costs into account?
Not sure would have to look. Have you tried the tool?
No, I'm a 3-funder turned 2-funder and really have no reason to. I suspect though that taking expenses into account (if it doesn't already) would make the difference between the two greater.
I would agree. The Two Fund portfolio is 0.05 and 0.04 for the two funds. The other four funds I had that were removed were of higher costs.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Czilla9000 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:18 pm

Holy Toledo performance chasing!

I've been away from this forum for 10 years. I arrive back and the popular wisdom is BUY ONLY US STOCKS...after a tremendous 10 year bull market in US stocks. This is performance chasing.

What happened to "stay the course" and "no market timing"?

The logic of "US only" is inconsistent with the rest of Jack Bogle's philosophy. 40% of the world's stock market is not US. By not buying international stocks, you're saying the market is wrong in a big way. You're saying the international market is very inefficient. You're saying you can consistently earn alpha over the global indices by holding 0 international.

The stupid thing is if you insist on relaxing the market efficiency constraint, then you'd be inclined to OVERWEIGHT international stocks right now: i.e., the US is trading at the highest Schiller PE ever besides the dot com bubble and 1929. By contrast international has not participated in his epic bull rally and is trading at reasonable PE levels.

In short: If you think markets are efficient, include international. If you think markets are inefficient, valuation is screaming at you to rebalance from US into international. .

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by Cheez-It Guy » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:26 pm

But what about this? . . .

I don't want to.

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by lostdog » Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:46 pm

Czilla9000 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:18 pm
Holy Toledo performance chasing!

I've been away from this forum for 10 years. I arrive back and the popular wisdom is BUY ONLY US STOCKS...after a tremendous 10 year bull market in US stocks. This is performance chasing.

What happened to "stay the course" and "no market timing"?

The logic of "US only" is inconsistent with the rest of Jack Bogle's philosophy. 40% of the world's stock market is not US. By not buying international stocks, you're saying the market is wrong in a big way. You're saying the international market is very inefficient. You're saying you can consistently earn alpha over the global indices by holding 0 international.

The stupid thing is if you insist on relaxing the market efficiency constraint, then you'd be inclined to OVERWEIGHT international stocks right now: i.e., the US is trading at the highest Schiller PE ever besides the dot com bubble and 1929. By contrast international has not participated in his epic bull rally and is trading at reasonable PE levels.

In short: If you think markets are efficient, include international. If you think markets are inefficient, valuation is screaming at you to rebalance from US into international. .
+1

I agree 100%.

What you're saying doesn't matter, even though you're correct.

According to them and supposedly Jack and Warren, the U.S. will continue to dominate for many decades to come. This is a fact based on past performance. Anything that Jack and Warren doesn't approve of is blasphemy...
Total World Stock and Total World Bond. The simple two fund diversified portfolio. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:20 pm

Czilla9000 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:18 pm
Holy Toledo performance chasing!

I've been away from this forum for 10 years. I arrive back and the popular wisdom is BUY ONLY US STOCKS...after a tremendous 10 year bull market in US stocks. This is performance chasing.

What happened to "stay the course" and "no market timing"?

The logic of "US only" is inconsistent with the rest of Jack Bogle's philosophy. 40% of the world's stock market is not US. By not buying international stocks, you're saying the market is wrong in a big way. You're saying the international market is very inefficient. You're saying you can consistently earn alpha over the global indices by holding 0 international.

The stupid thing is if you insist on relaxing the market efficiency constraint, then you'd be inclined to OVERWEIGHT international stocks right now: i.e., the US is trading at the highest Schiller PE ever besides the dot com bubble and 1929. By contrast international has not participated in his epic bull rally and is trading at reasonable PE levels.

In short: If you think markets are efficient, include international. If you think markets are inefficient, valuation is screaming at you to rebalance from US into international. .
You lost me. Your last post was in 2017 or two years ago. During this time Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett have not changed their message. Two funds is all that is needed. Own the haystack.
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:25 pm

lostdog wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:46 pm
Czilla9000 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:18 pm
Holy Toledo performance chasing!

I've been away from this forum for 10 years. I arrive back and the popular wisdom is BUY ONLY US STOCKS...after a tremendous 10 year bull market in US stocks. This is performance chasing.

What happened to "stay the course" and "no market timing"?

The logic of "US only" is inconsistent with the rest of Jack Bogle's philosophy. 40% of the world's stock market is not US. By not buying international stocks, you're saying the market is wrong in a big way. You're saying the international market is very inefficient. You're saying you can consistently earn alpha over the global indices by holding 0 international.

The stupid thing is if you insist on relaxing the market efficiency constraint, then you'd be inclined to OVERWEIGHT international stocks right now: i.e., the US is trading at the highest Schiller PE ever besides the dot com bubble and 1929. By contrast international has not participated in his epic bull rally and is trading at reasonable PE levels.

In short: If you think markets are efficient, include international. If you think markets are inefficient, valuation is screaming at you to rebalance from US into international. .
+1

I agree 100%.

What you're saying doesn't matter, even though you're correct.

According to them and supposedly Jack and Warren, the U.S. will continue to dominate for many decades to come. This is a fact based on past performance. Anything that Jack and Warren doesn't approve of is blasphemy...
Supposedly Jack and Warren? I have never seen an interview where Mr. Bogle or Mr. Buffett have recommended any type of international investing. Please if I missed anything and they have provided a recommendation , kindly share with the forum!
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:26 pm

Cheez-It Guy wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:26 pm
But what about this? . . .

I don't want to.
:sharebeer
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Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Post by columbia » Sat Dec 07, 2019 7:33 pm

I can’t possibly fathom why people get so peevish about others choosing a different investment path; it’s rather juvenile.

I’ll stick with my choice.

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