Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Stef
Posts: 86
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 10:13 am

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by Stef » Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:38 pm

Institutional investors own 80% of the market. I don't think that we have any impact.

randomguy
Posts: 8402
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by randomguy » Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:45 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:30 am
OP,

1) No.

2) A bigger and more interesting question is why the idea of FIRE looks appealing to the younger generation. It was not a popular idea of 10 to 20 years ago.

KlangFool
Are you sure it wasn't popular 20 years ago and you just didn't hear about it? How would you have learned about some movement with a couple thousand people 20 years ago? There is a ton more content out there so that fringe movements get a lot more press. There have always been people that dropped out and lived minimal lives. They just didn't have a catchy name in the 1920s. There was definitely FU money people in the mid 90s but they tended to be slighly more upper middle class (i.e. people talked about wanting 2 million) than the FIRE crowd

No fringe movements with very few people aren't going to move the markets unless they are all .1%ers. There is nothing abnormal about this bull market that we haven't seen before. You can try to link to whatever you want (aging demographics, taylor swift's popularity, global warming,.. ) but you are more or less grasping at straws. If I had to vote, a lot of the bull market is just the rebound from the piss poor 00s and the rest of it is us running up crazy budget deficits over the past couple years to extent that bull market a few more years. But that would just be a guess.

flyingaway
Posts: 2534
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2014 10:19 am

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by flyingaway » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:47 pm

I never wanted to work for a day if I can get money from somewhere.
Is the concept of FIRE more popular in Europe? As their system is likely to encourage people to quit early and enjoy life.

User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 2:44 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by JoeRetire » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:51 pm

tvubpwcisla wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:42 am
Could FIRE be responsible for the Bull Market?
No.
Don't be a lemming.

flyingaway
Posts: 2534
Joined: Fri Jan 17, 2014 10:19 am

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by flyingaway » Fri Nov 15, 2019 4:53 pm

peseta wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:20 pm
What's funny is that the answer may be "yes" to the question if it's flipped around: "Is this historic bull market run responsible for the FIRE movement?"

:happy
I would say yes. Without this bull market, there would be not many FIRE blogs.

bluquark
Posts: 879
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:30 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by bluquark » Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:34 pm

The following chart shows number of years of income saved for Americans aged 50-64, and the x axis is income percentile.

Image

So, even in people close to conventional retirement age, Americans *still* are far from meeting the conventional wisdom of 25x-of-expenses-saved. Although the picture would look a bit better if you included the value of pensions and social security, people who will be able to retire while holding expenses steady at all, let alone early, are a minority.

lostdog
Posts: 2048
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by lostdog » Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:40 pm

michaeljc70 wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:37 am
am wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:51 am
Don’t think so. Most people don’t know what FIRE is. I think low interest rates, solid earnings, growth, and favorable tax policy have all contributed to this bull market. :sharebeer
+1

Too few people are doing it. Most people cannot cover a $1k emergency and live paycheck to paycheck.
+2

The FIRE people and bogleheads are very rare. It's engrained into the American culture that it's ok to live pay heck to paycheck and keep up with the Joneses.
Total World Stock and Total World Bond. The simple two fund diversified portfolio. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

lostdog
Posts: 2048
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by lostdog » Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:48 pm

peseta wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 12:20 pm
What's funny is that the answer may be "yes" to the question if it's flipped around: "Is this historic bull market run responsible for the FIRE movement?"

:happy
Yes. The next recession you'll see a lot of the FIRE blogs disappear.
Total World Stock and Total World Bond. The simple two fund diversified portfolio. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

Ocean77
Posts: 59
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 3:20 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by Ocean77 » Fri Nov 15, 2019 10:54 pm

bluquark wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:34 pm
The following chart shows number of years of income saved for Americans aged 50-64, and the x axis is income percentile.

Image

So, even in people close to conventional retirement age, Americans *still* are far from meeting the conventional wisdom of 25x-of-expenses-saved. Although the picture would look a bit better if you included the value of pensions and social security, people who will be able to retire while holding expenses steady at all, let alone early, are a minority.
The chart says net worth to income, not to expenses. This can be a big difference. I.e. my net worth is only 5x my income, but 30x my expenses.

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 13950
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:00 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:48 am
I doubt it. Small fraction of population.
:thumbsup

Far fewer than 1% of the U.S. populace is on board with FIRE. The OP is based on a flawed understanding of how much money it takes to move the markets.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

fourwheelcycle
Posts: 727
Joined: Sun May 25, 2014 5:55 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by fourwheelcycle » Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:16 pm

I think FIRE is a small population compared to the vast number of people who keep saving past their FIRE years until they reach full retirement age, or even later. The long term savers probably affect the market more than the FIRE group. Also, from looking at MMM, I think a lot of the FIRE group are looking for ways to retire with much less savings than the business people and investors who FIRE with many millions.

From another perspective, as an aging baby boomer, I used to worry that all the other boomers would begin to retire, and want to start selling off their invested savings to fund their retirements, at the same time as me. Everyone talks about the boomers affecting the economy at each stage of their life, and I thought the retiring boomers might cause a long term market sell off. Clearly that is not happening.

I think all the other posters on this thread who suggest underlying economic factors are the main determinants of the market are right, and the FIRE group, and even the boomers, have only limited impacts on the overall market.

User avatar
RickBoglehead
Posts: 4928
Joined: Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:10 am
Location: In a house

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by RickBoglehead » Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:23 pm

Not a chance.
Avid user of forums on variety of interests-financial, home brewing, F-150, PHEV, home repair, etc. Enjoy learning & passing on knowledge. It's PRINCIPAL, not PRINCIPLE. I ADVISE you to seek ADVICE.

User avatar
zaboomafoozarg
Posts: 2043
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:34 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:49 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:55 am
zaboomafoozarg,

It is the same for me since I started 30+ years ago. The working condition had not changed. But, somehow, the younger generation no longer thinks this is acceptable.

KlangFool
It's still quite rare though, even in younger people. In my whole career I've only met 1 other person who had the goal of retiring at a younger age (50 or less).

Everyone else is spending almost everything they make on houses/vacations/cars/kids/college, and plan to retire in their early-to-mid 60s if they're lucky.

User avatar
TomatoTomahto
Posts: 9547
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 1:48 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:44 am

zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:49 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:55 am
zaboomafoozarg,

It is the same for me since I started 30+ years ago. The working condition had not changed. But, somehow, the younger generation no longer thinks this is acceptable.

KlangFool
It's still quite rare though, even in younger people. In my whole career I've only met 1 other person who had the goal of retiring at a younger age (50 or less).

Everyone else is spending almost everything they make on houses/vacations/cars/kids/college, and plan to retire in their early-to-mid 60s if they're lucky.
And then there’s another cohort, who saved/invested diligently and have sufficient funds to retire, but get some value from continuing to work.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

JBTX
Posts: 5539
Joined: Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:46 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by JBTX » Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:23 am

am wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:51 am
Don’t think so. Most people don’t know what FIRE is. I think low interest rates, solid earnings, growth, and favorable tax policy have all contributed to this bull market. :sharebeer
This.

User avatar
ClevrChico
Posts: 1557
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:24 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by ClevrChico » Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:35 am

I believe the bull run has more to do with a handful of tech companies raking in a lot of money.

Almost everyone I know is at the polar opposite of the FIRE movement.

anoop
Posts: 1055
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by anoop » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:20 am

Seriously? Never heard of QE?? What about the suspension of the mark to market accounting rule??

minimalistmarc
Posts: 509
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by minimalistmarc » Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:57 am

anoop wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 4:20 am
Seriously? Never heard of QE?? What about the suspension of the mark to market accounting rule??
Too complicated. QE was a correction for another error (sub prime housing boom). It’s all swings and roundabouts.

mary1492
Posts: 60
Joined: Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:02 am

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by mary1492 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:37 am

.....
Last edited by mary1492 on Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.

sambb
Posts: 2607
Joined: Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:31 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by sambb » Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:45 am

The market and economy have been amazing for the last 2-3 years, i dont know the cause, but certainly its been great for workers and investors!

lostdog
Posts: 2048
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by lostdog » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:00 am

sambb wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:45 am
The market and economy have been amazing for the last 2-3 years, i dont know the cause, but certainly its been great for workers and investors!
And yet there are quite a bit of investors and non-investors sitting on the sidelines. A good indicator this bull market has more to give us.

When the chatter begins from non-investor side about jumping in from FOMO, that's when to get concerned.
Total World Stock and Total World Bond. The simple two fund diversified portfolio. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

livesoft
Posts: 68610
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by livesoft » Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:04 am

sambb wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:45 am
The market and economy have been amazing for the last 2-3 years, i dont know the cause, but certainly its been great for workers and investors!
How so? GDP growth has not been amazing [to me]. Other economic data does not support your statement.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

michaeljc70
Posts: 5792
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2015 3:53 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by michaeljc70 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:25 am

livesoft wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 9:04 am
sambb wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:45 am
The market and economy have been amazing for the last 2-3 years, i dont know the cause, but certainly its been great for workers and investors!
How so? GDP growth has not been amazing [to me]. Other economic data does not support your statement.
Profits (mainly) drive the stock market, not GDP. GDP doesn't put food on the table. Look at the employment/unemployment numbers, stock market, inflation and wages. Wage growth hit a 10 year high this year. Wage increases particularly started helping the bottom 25% in the last year or so.

User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 2711
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:07 am

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by CyclingDuo » Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:56 am

mary1492 wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 5:37 am
It's completely the reverse - the Historic Bull Market Run is Responsible for the FIRE Movement.
There was a lot of the same chatter in 1997, 1998, 1999, and early 2000 after the roaring bull market of the 90's led to all of us having large portfolios at the time worthy of FIRE consideration to contemplate choices back then.

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see the FIRE chatter pick up steam as we move into the next uptrend leg after the market has spent nearly the past two years consolidating (including the Q4 2018 wash out) from the uptrend move after the prior 2015-16 consolidation.

That being said, the FIRE movement represents rather small fish compared to the big fish (institutional buyers, pension funds, etc...). They create the bull & bear markets and allow the small fish such as those interested in FIRE to pick and choose when their -RE bell tolls.
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

retire2022
Posts: 951
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:10 pm
Location: NYC

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by retire2022 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:27 pm

randomguy wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:45 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 9:30 am
OP,

1) No.

2) A bigger and more interesting question is why the idea of FIRE looks appealing to the younger generation. It was not a popular idea of 10 to 20 years ago.

KlangFool
Are you sure it wasn't popular 20 years ago and you just didn't hear about it? How would you have learned about some movement with a couple thousand people 20 years ago? There is a ton more content out there so that fringe movements get a lot more press. There have always been people that dropped out and lived minimal lives. They just didn't have a catchy name in the 1920s. There was definitely FU money people in the mid 90s but they tended to be slighly more upper middle class (i.e. people talked about wanting 2 million) than the FIRE crowd

No fringe movements with very few people aren't going to move the markets unless they are all .1%ers. There is nothing abnormal about this bull market that we haven't seen before. You can try to link to whatever you want (aging demographics, taylor swift's popularity, global warming,.. ) but you are more or less grasping at straws. If I had to vote, a lot of the bull market is just the rebound from the piss poor 00s and the rest of it is us running up crazy budget deficits over the past couple years to extent that bull market a few more years. But that would just be a guess.
It was popular in the late sixties drop in drop out, and those dropout kids are gen-xers and millennials that is how I see the connection to the FIRE movement as a babyboomer.

User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 352
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by firebirdparts » Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:19 am

To the question about previous generations, I may be really strange, but at a high income level I thought it was obvious you’d have to decide what to do with your life. I know you can spend any amount but it’s pretty dumb. I graduated college in 1988 and I had every intention of being financially independent by about 40. My wife prevented me, I can’t really blame it on my income or investments.
A fool and your money are soon partners

randomguy
Posts: 8402
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

Post by randomguy » Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:33 pm

retire2022 wrote:
Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:27 pm
[quote=randomguy post_id=4841846 time=15738

It was popular in the late sixties drop in drop out, and those dropout kids are gen-xers and millennials that is how I see the connection to the FIRE movement as a babyboomer.
That was slightly different in that the boomers were living the minimalist lifestyle and funding it with minimal jobs (or parental money). I bet there is some Greek text talking about how some kids are living cheapilu off their inheritence instead of working hard😂

Small groups can have outsized influences on society but FIRE is really tiny. Ask 100 people on the street and I would be surprised in 10% have heard of it.

Post Reply