IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

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gobadgers
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IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by gobadgers » Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:44 am

Is it true that the IRMAA thresholds will be adjusted upward for inflation in 2020 -- maybe about 2%?

In planning my 2018 tax return (the income for which will determine the 2020 threshold used), I need to know how close I can get to the cliff without going over. I am close to one of the current IRMAA cliffs now, but a 2% increase in 2020 would help ease the fear of going over. Does anyone have any information or comments on this?

mhalley
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by mhalley » Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:51 am

Our health insurance is going up to over 2800 a month in Jan.. My wife and I turn 65 later next year, and will jump offf the Irma cliff with glee.

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munemaker
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by munemaker » Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:09 am

mhalley wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:51 am
Our health insurance is going up to over 2800 a month in Jan.. My wife and I turn 65 later next year, and will jump offf the Irma cliff with glee.
Just curious - $2,800 seems expensive for a couple. What kind of insurance do you have? No less expensive options available?

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HueyLD
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by HueyLD » Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:48 am

gobadgers wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:44 am
Is it true that the IRMAA thresholds will be adjusted upward for inflation in 2020 -- maybe about 2%?

In planning my 2018 tax return (the income for which will determine the 2020 threshold used), I need to know how close I can get to the cliff without going over. I am close to one of the current IRMAA cliffs now, but a 2% increase in 2020 would help ease the fear of going over. Does anyone have any information or comments on this?
The kff.org indicates that the adjustment for 2020 will be about 2% and I think the OP should incorporate 2.1% into his projection. Better safe than sorry.

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PriceOfFreedom
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by PriceOfFreedom » Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:40 pm

Hi HueyLD. I browsed the kff.org website, but cant find the info. Could you please provide a link? Thanks.

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HueyLD
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by HueyLD » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:04 pm

“The income thresholds that determine the income-related premium payments are frozen through 2019, but will increase by about 2 percent in 2020 and will be indexed after that for general price inflation.”

https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brie ... d-changes/

The Wizard
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by The Wizard » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:20 pm

HueyLD wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:04 pm
“The income thresholds that determine the income-related premium payments are frozen through 2019, but will increase by about 2 percent in 2020 and will be indexed after that for general price inflation.”

https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brie ... d-changes/
That confuses the issue.
MAGI in year X determines IRMAA tier for year X+2.
Nonetheless, I read it to mean perhaps a 2% increase in IRMAA tiers in 2020 for MAGI earned this year...
Attempted new signature...

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HueyLD
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by HueyLD » Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:22 pm

Yes, that’t the way it works.

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PriceOfFreedom
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by PriceOfFreedom » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:20 pm

Sorry to be so thick about this, but as I'm doing some year-end income planning, I want to avoid "just" going over an IRMAA threshold.

So the first IRMAA threshold for married filing jointly is currently $170,000. To determine the IRMAA surcharge for Medicare premiums that DW and I will pay in 2020 (based on 2018 adjusted AGI), will the applied IRMAA threshold be:

(1) $170,000 (the 2018 limit with no inflation adjustment)
(2) $170,000 plus the CPI increase for 2018 (currently expected to be about 2%?)
or
(3) $170,000 plus whatever the CPI increase is in 2020 (could be positive or negative)?

mhalley
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by mhalley » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:47 pm

Wife and I are both 64. The insurance is an HSA compatable Bronze plan bought off the healthcare.gov exchange. No subsidy as I am doing roth conversions. There is one cheaper ($2777) but it is not HSA compliant.
Some more specifics of the plan:
Deductible
$5,200Individual Total
$10,400 Family Total
Out-of-pocket maximum
$6,650 Individual Total
$13,300Family Total
Copayments / Coinsurance
Emergency room care: 50% Coinsurance after deductible
Generic drugs: 50% Coinsurance after deductible
Primary doctor: 50% Coinsurance after deductible
Specialist doctor: 50% Coinsurance after deductible
See why I welcome IRMAA?

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PriceOfFreedom
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by PriceOfFreedom » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:52 pm

mhalley, I agree that you will be better off financially next year with Medicare/IRMAA than with your current plan.

However, do you have an answer to my question?

FactualFran
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by FactualFran » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:27 pm

PriceOfFreedom wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:20 pm
So the first IRMAA threshold for married filing jointly is currently $170,000. To determine the IRMAA surcharge for Medicare premiums that DW and I will pay in 2020 (based on 2018 adjusted AGI), will the applied IRMAA threshold be:

(1) $170,000 (the 2018 limit with no inflation adjustment)
(2) $170,000 plus the CPI increase for 2018 (currently expected to be about 2%?)
or
(3) $170,000 plus whatever the CPI increase is in 2020 (could be positive or negative)?
As far as I can tell, it will be

(4) $170,000 modified by the percent change between 1) the average CPI-U for the 12-month period ending August 2019, and 2) the average CPI-U for the 12-month period ending August 2018, and rounded to the nearest $1,000.

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PriceOfFreedom
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by PriceOfFreedom » Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:57 pm

Thanks FactualFran, this makes sense.

My option (3) was a nonsensical attempt to capture future inflation rather than this year's (already known) inflation. However, since the IRMAA limits for 2020 need to be determined in late 2019, your timeline makes far more sense.

JackoC
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by JackoC » Thu Nov 29, 2018 10:20 am

mhalley wrote:
Tue Oct 30, 2018 10:51 am
Our health insurance is going up to over 2800 a month in Jan.. My wife and I turn 65 later next year, and will jump offf the Irma cliff with glee.
Further idle curiosity, which state? Our plan is similar to yours in broad brush. We're a little younger but if I take the published rates and age factors in our state, NJ, and made us both 64 our Bronze HSA plan with similar (they might not be exactly the same) thresholds would be $1671 per month for 2019. Horizon, which is not the cheapest but the cheaper ones aren't widely accepted and previous experience going that way convinced us it's not worth it. Pre ACA, NJ had about the most eye watering private health insurance rates in the country. We were considering moving to a neighboring state in part because HI was around 1/3 to 1/4 as much in PA and DE (though no guaranteed issue pre ACA, NJ did have gteed issue pre ACA). NJ rates now are higher in absolute $'s than then, but I guess we've 'fallen behind' relatively.
https://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_i ... s_2019.pdf

I'll still be welcoming IRMAA too, if not quite as gleefully.

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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by deltaneutral83 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:24 am

PriceOfFreedom wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:52 pm
mhalley, I agree that you will be better off financially next year with Medicare/IRMAA than with your current plan.

However, do you have an answer to my question?
He and his wife are 64, this is what insurance with no subsidies with ACA costs for an HDHP (not PPO which is more expensive; $2,800/month for individual/combined deduc at $5,200/$10,400 and OOP max for indiv/combined at $6,650/$13,300). What other explanation are you seeking? This is the cost of insurance, and when you look at the deduc's and OOP max's you can determine for yourself the quality/value.

If the poster were seeking a PPO plan with lower deducs and copays, well....you get it.

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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by OnTrack » Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:07 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:24 am
PriceOfFreedom wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:52 pm
mhalley, I agree that you will be better off financially next year with Medicare/IRMAA than with your current plan.

However, do you have an answer to my question?
He and his wife are 64, this is what insurance with no subsidies with ACA costs for an HDHP (not PPO which is more expensive; $2,800/month for individual/combined deduc at $5,200/$10,400 and OOP max for indiv/combined at $6,650/$13,300). What other explanation are you seeking? This is the cost of insurance, and when you look at the deduc's and OOP max's you can determine for yourself the quality/value.

If the poster were seeking a PPO plan with lower deducs and copays, well....you get it.
PriceOfFreedom's question was about how to determine the IRMAA threshold. It was not about the cost of the current insurance.

deltaneutral83
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by deltaneutral83 » Thu Nov 29, 2018 4:34 pm

OnTrack wrote:
Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:07 pm
PriceOfFreedom's question was about how to determine the IRMAA threshold. It was not about the cost of the current insurance.
My mistake, another had concerns that the premiums were indeed matching the policy.

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One Ping
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by One Ping » Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:12 pm

Bogleheads has an amazing wealth of information in old threads. I was looking for exactly this and found it!
FactualFran wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 7:27 pm
PriceOfFreedom wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:20 pm
So the first IRMAA threshold for married filing jointly is currently $170,000. To determine the IRMAA surcharge for Medicare premiums that DW and I will pay in 2020 (based on 2018 adjusted AGI), will the applied IRMAA threshold be:

(1) $170,000 (the 2018 limit with no inflation adjustment)
(2) $170,000 plus the CPI increase for 2018 (currently expected to be about 2%?)
or
(3) $170,000 plus whatever the CPI increase is in 2020 (could be positive or negative)?
As far as I can tell, it will be

(4) $170,000 modified by the percent change between 1) the average CPI-U for the 12-month period ending August 2019, and 2) the average CPI-U for the 12-month period ending August 2018, and rounded to the nearest $1,000.
After reading it I realized I still had a question about the calculation of the CPI adjustment in FactualFran's answer (4) above. Is there language (e.g., a Federal Register reference) somewhere that actually states that the referenced logic for applying the inflation adjustment is what FactualFran stated in (4) above (i.e., the difference between the average Sept through Aug CPI-U values for the years 2018 and 2019)?

The logic, not to mention the CPI, seems similar but slightly different that that used for determining the Social Security COLA (https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.html):
Social Security wrote: A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the CPI-W from the average for the third quarter of the current year to the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective.
One Ping
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HueyLD
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by HueyLD » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:47 pm

One Ping asked:

"After reading it I realized I still had a question about the calculation of the CPI adjustment in FactualFran's answer (4) above. Is there language (e.g., a Federal Register reference) somewhere that actually states that the referenced logic for applying the inflation adjustment is what FactualFran stated in (4) above (i.e., the difference between the average Sept through Aug CPI-U values for the years 2018 and 2019)?"

https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/ssact/title18/1839.htm

"(5) Inflation adjustment.—

(A) In general.—In the case of any calendar year beginning after 2007 (other than 2018 and 2019), each dollar amount in paragraph (2) or (3) shall be increased by an amount equal to[177]—

(i) such dollar amount, multiplied by

(ii) the percentage (if any) by which the average of the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (United States city average) for the 12-month period ending with August of the preceding calendar year exceeds such average for the 12-month period ending with August 2006 (or, in the case of a calendar year beginning with 2020, August 2018).[178]

(B) Rounding.—If any dollar amount after being increased under subparagraph (A) is not a multiple of $1,000, such dollar amount shall be rounded to the nearest multiple of $1,000."

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One Ping
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by One Ping » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:20 pm

Well, I'll be darned! Thanks, HueyLD :sharebeer This place is amazing!

Apologies to FactualFran for doubting her. :D :beer
HueyLD wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:47 pm
One Ping asked:

"After reading it I realized I still had a question about the calculation of the CPI adjustment in FactualFran's answer (4) above. Is there language (e.g., a Federal Register reference) somewhere that actually states that the referenced logic for applying the inflation adjustment is what FactualFran stated in (4) above (i.e., the difference between the average Sept through Aug CPI-U values for the years 2018 and 2019)?"

https://www.ssa.gov/OP_Home/ssact/title18/1839.htm

"(5) Inflation adjustment.—

(A) In general.—In the case of any calendar year beginning after 2007 (other than 2018 and 2019), each dollar amount in paragraph (2) or (3) shall be increased by an amount equal to[177]—

(i) such dollar amount, multiplied by

(ii) the percentage (if any) by which the average of the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers (United States city average) for the 12-month period ending with August of the preceding calendar year exceeds such average for the 12-month period ending with August 2006 (or, in the case of a calendar year beginning with 2020, August 2018).[178]

(B) Rounding.—If any dollar amount after being increased under subparagraph (A) is not a multiple of $1,000, such dollar amount shall be rounded to the nearest multiple of $1,000."
"Re-verify our range to target ... one ping only."

Alan S.
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by Alan S. » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:38 pm

Since we are nearly halfway through the Sept 2018 to August, 2019 period and inflation is quite low due to declining oil prices, I would not expect much of an inflation adjust to the 2020 IRMAA tiers.

Anyone know if the "average" is that of that final 3 months of the period as in the case of SS COLA, or includes more than the last 3 months. Also, is chained CPI U used or just basic CPI U? Chained would cut roughly .2% off the result.

So you might look for maybe 171,000 - 174,000) to replace the 170,000 figure. If you exceeded 170,000 for 2018 MAGI by a small amount you are probably pulling for a burst of inflation this summer.

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Oicuryy
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by Oicuryy » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:28 am

If I keyed them right these are the CPI numbers so far.

Code: Select all

   month     CPI-U
        2017-2018  2018-2019
       9   246.819    252.439
      10   246.663    252.885
      11   246.669    252.038
      12   246.524    251.233
       1   247.867
       2   248.991
       3   249.554
       4   250.546
       5   251.588
       6   251.989
       7   252.006
       8   252.146

average   249.2802   252.1488
                        1.15%
And my estimates of the thresholds assuming 1.15% inflation.

Code: Select all

thresholds single
    2019      2020
   85000     86000
  107000    108000
  133500    135000
  160000    162000
  500000    506000

thresholds married
    2019      2020
  170000    172000
  214000    216000
  267000    270000
  320000    324000
  750000    759000
Ron
Money is fungible | Abbreviations and Acronyms

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One Ping
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by One Ping » Sun Jan 27, 2019 2:40 pm

Alan S. wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:38 pm
Anyone know if the "average" is that of that final 3 months of the period as in the case of SS COLA, or includes more than the last 3 months. Also, is chained CPI U used or just basic CPI U? Chained would cut roughly .2% off the result.

So you might look for maybe 171,000 - 174,000) to replace the 170,000 figure. If you exceeded 170,000 for 2018 MAGI by a small amount you are probably pulling for a burst of inflation this summer.
Alan S. – The way I read the reference provided by HueyLD above, the change in CPI is calculated from the AVERAGE of the LAST 12 MONTHS CPI values, divided by the AVERAGE of the PREVIOUS 12 MONTHS CPI values.

Given the data from the BLS:
Image
I calculate the current (end of December 2018) delta-CPI-U value as:

(avg CPI-U value for Jan 2018 through Dec 2018) / (avg CPI-U value for Jan 2017 through Dec 2017), or
(251.107) / (245.120) = 1.024, for a current delta-CPI-U value of 2.4%.

I looked at the history of the CPI-U from 2010 to the present and calculated the delta-CPI-U history using the above approach and created the following plot. It’s pretty busy, but I think it demonstrates that the average delta-CPI-U changes relatively slowly, making it possible to estimate the 2020 planning value with a reasonable probability. Since the current value is hovering around the dividing line between, $173K and $174K, for planning purposes I expect the 2020 Tier 1 IRMAA MAGI will likely be either $173,000 or $174,000.
Image
Since the current value is hovering around the dividing line between, $173K and $174K, for planning purposes I expect the 2020 Tier 1 IRMAA MAGI will likely be either $173,000 or $174,000. I plan on using $173K unless things change over the next 4 to 6 months that would drive it more into the $174K range.

One Ping

ETA: It's obvously too late to do any income planning for the 2020 IRMAA MAGI limit, however looking at a 2% bump for 2021 might not seem too unreasonable. On top of the $173K for 2020, that would put 2021 IRMAA Tier I MAGI (2019 MAGI limit) at $176K.
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Rob54keep
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by Rob54keep » Thu Nov 14, 2019 6:52 pm

It looks like the base income threshold for MFJ for IRMMA for 2020 (thus 2018 MAGI) is $174k or less per Medicare website.
https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare- ... t-a-glance
Last edited by Rob54keep on Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Big Dog
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by Big Dog » Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:46 pm

just for clarification of this rook:

MAGI for IRMAA purposes is Line 11 of the new tax form 1040 + the add-backs (such as tax-exempt interest). In other words, MAGI+exempt interest is net of the new standard or itemized deductions, correct?

(Only asking since 'MAGI' does not appear to be a tax form line item anymore.)

FactualFran
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by FactualFran » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:22 pm

Big Dog wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:46 pm
just for clarification of this rook:

MAGI for IRMAA purposes is Line 11 of the new tax form 1040 + the add-backs (such as tax-exempt interest). In other words, MAGI+exempt interest is net of the new standard or itemized deductions, correct?

(Only asking since 'MAGI' does not appear to be a tax form line item anymore.)
Standard or itemized are subtracted from the AGI as part of calculating the taxable income. According to the Medicare Premiums: Rules For Higher-Income Beneficiaries booklet: "Your MAGI is your total adjusted gross income and tax-exempt interest income." The taxable income, not the MAGI, is net of standard deductions or itemized deductions (and the Qualified Business Income deduction).

As far as I know, the Medicare MAGI has never been a line on an income tax return.

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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by Big Dog » Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:55 pm

FactualFran wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 6:22 pm
Big Dog wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 5:46 pm
just for clarification of this rook:

MAGI for IRMAA purposes is Line 11 of the new tax form 1040 + the add-backs (such as tax-exempt interest). In other words, MAGI+exempt interest is net of the new standard or itemized deductions, correct?

(Only asking since 'MAGI' does not appear to be a tax form line item anymore.)
Standard or itemized are subtracted from the AGI as part of calculating the taxable income. According to the Medicare Premiums: Rules For Higher-Income Beneficiaries booklet: "Your MAGI is your total adjusted gross income and tax-exempt interest income." The taxable income, not the MAGI, is net of standard deductions or itemized deductions (and the Qualified Business Income deduction).

As far as I know, the Medicare MAGI has never been a line on an income tax return.
Thanks. I was just checking to make sure I'm not missing anything. (Had severance payments that put me close to IRMAA...)

btw: Yes, 'Medicare MAGI' was never part of a tax return, but Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) was; for example, line 37 on 2016 1040. (The bottom of 1040 page 1 was Total Income, line 22). Thus, to get to Modified Adjusted Gross Income, just add the tax-exempt stuff to AGI.

The new 1040 eliminated the AGI, so kinda hard to 'modify' something that no longer exists. :oops:

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PriceOfFreedom
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by PriceOfFreedom » Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:08 pm

Doesn't line 7 of the 2018 1040 return show the AGI?

pahkcah
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by pahkcah » Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:41 pm

As has been discussed in other threads related to the Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA), if you had one major life changing event during 2018, you can request a reduction in your 2020 IRMAA. This is done by submitting Social Security Form SSA-44. If you had more than one life changing event during 2018, SS asks that you call 1-800-772-1213 (TTY 1-800-325-0778). Life changing events include:

Marriage
Divorce/Annulment
Death of Your Spouse
Work Stoppage
Work Reduction
Loss of Income-Producing Property
Loss of Pension Income
Employer Settlement Payment

The form contains fields that ask for: (1) The amount of your adjusted gross income (AGI, as used on line 37 of IRS form 1040), and (2) Tax-exempt income (as used on line 8b of IRS form 1040.

The company I worked for was sold in 2017, which resulted in a significant payout to all of the employees. As a result, I filed a reduction request for 2019 (which was approved). Today, my DW and I visited the local SS office and submitted SSA-44 forms to request IRMAA reductions for 2020. These requests were based on the fact that I retired in 2018.

packcah

Big Dog
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Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

Post by Big Dog » Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:00 pm

PriceOfFreedom wrote:
Fri Nov 15, 2019 7:08 pm
Doesn't line 7 of the 2018 1040 return show the AGI?
uh, sorry my bad, I was looking at an electronic copy of my 18 return but it really was a work sheet, and not the printed copy.....

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