mrspock wrote: ↑
Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:26 pm
What were the top 5 companies’ names for 1999? I think this context matters when assessing the validity of the comparison.
Today they are:
[Google is actually 3rd or 4th -- might need to add up 2 classes of stock; same with Berkshire to a lesser degree] https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500
I wanted to know too. I found this comparison and hope it's accurate: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visu ... 999-today/
[Lucent and Nokia were also in the top 10]
It took 20 years for Microsoft to double from $500B to $1000B, but that's better than if you invested in GE, LU, NOK. Walmart did comparatively $200B to $350B. For reference, SP500 was about 1500 vs 3000, so similar to MSFT and WMT. BRK.A went from below 75k to over $300k today, but that doesn't take into account the dividends. [From Morningstar comparison: 11/30/1999 to 11/13/2019 BRK.A +272,102.00 | +474.87% SPX +1,704.97 | +122.74% × MSFT +101.79 | +223.59% -- I'm not sure total return including dividends is being reported for WMT and MSFT like the old charts; SP500 adjusts for dividends and Berkshire has no dividends.]
I think those companies at the time looked as invincible as the top companies today. I would bet that more than one of the top 5 will remain in the group 20 years from now, but that's not what history says. It would be very hard to predict which ones, if any, remain in the top 5 after 20 more years, but it would be even harder to predict what new companies enter the top 5 (Tesla anyone? Skynet?).