U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:27 am

JoMoney wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:30 am
If it made "your head asplode" it had the intended affect.
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=asplode
The source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R22zSrpeSA4 "Your Head A Splode"

I will admit there is no ties to the market soaring unless expect to say that maybe the market is running from TROGDOR!

Consumate V's Consumate V's. I was a Homestar Runner fan back in the day (the thing having kids brings to your life :-) Here is my favorite: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0KwJD2Ugb8

TaxingAccount
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TaxingAccount » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:36 am

.....
Last edited by TaxingAccount on Sun Nov 10, 2019 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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305pelusa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 305pelusa » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:24 pm

TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:36 am
DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:49 am
Looks like it will be another great day to be invested in the stock market!
If you have a balanced portfolio you lost money today.
As Roger Gibson says :
"Diversification works, whether you like it or not".

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AnalogKid22
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnalogKid22 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:31 pm

Run, buuuuull, ruuuuuunnn!

DaftInvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DaftInvestor » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:34 pm

TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:36 am
DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:49 am
Looks like it will be another great day to be invested in the stock market!
If you have a balanced portfolio you lost money today.
1) The day's not over
2) This thread concerns the stock market so your statements isn't relevant to this thread :)

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:50 pm

DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:34 pm
TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:36 am
DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:49 am
Looks like it will be another great day to be invested in the stock market!
If you have a balanced portfolio you lost money today.
1) The day's not over
2) This thread concerns the stock market so your statements isn't relevant to this thread :)
My bond heavy account is actually negative today. My overall portfolio is probably up (mutual funds haven't posted).

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BogleFanGal
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by BogleFanGal » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:01 pm

TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:36 am
DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:49 am
Looks like it will be another great day to be invested in the stock market!
If you have a balanced portfolio you lost money today.
With a 50/50 AA, I am resigned to being half right and half wrong every day. No big growth. Hopefully no crippling losses I can't handle. I have to live with that. :D
"Life would be infinitely happier if we could only be born at the age of eighty and gradually approach eighteen." Mark Twain

inbox788
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by inbox788 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:07 pm

DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:34 pm
TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:36 am
DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:49 am
Looks like it will be another great day to be invested in the stock market!
If you have a balanced portfolio you lost money today.
1) The day's not over
Now that the day is over.
BND down -0.51%
VOO +0.35%
VXUS +0.39%
VTI +0.34%
DIA +0.82%

Dow beat the SP500 today thanks mostly to UNH, GS, AAPL and BA.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia
http://indexarb.com/indexComponentWtsDJ.html

Overall a good day. Not sure it closed great or where it crosses that distinction, but it's a win nonetheless.

Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares 0.0%
AOR ISHARES TR/CORE GR ALLOCATION (+0.021%)
AOA ISHARES TR/CORE AGGRESSIVE ALL (+0.23%)

A 50/50 VTI/BND would have been down a few basis points and a 60/40 would be ((0.34*60%) - (0.51*40%)) = 0.0 (zero) Huh!
Last edited by inbox788 on Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:57 pm

TaxingAccount wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:13 pm
Bogleism works on the upcycle of a massive credit expansion. It'll be a disaster on the downside. Bogle, Buffet, and other Boglehead heroes rode the upside of a secular multi-decade credit wave. Very easy to look smart during such financial asset inflation. Now the downside as the wave crests.
Maybe.. you might be right... but how come this expansion isn't any stronger than past expansions?

Stock market is growing about the same pace (actually slower) as it did in past bull markets where there wasn't "massive credit expansions".

So why is this one for sure caused by a credit expansion and not just normal growth like in the past?

And where's the inflation we should see if this is all about credit expansion?
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The J stands for Jay

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:07 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 2:57 pm
TaxingAccount wrote:
Wed Nov 06, 2019 2:13 pm
Bogleism works on the upcycle of a massive credit expansion. It'll be a disaster on the downside. Bogle, Buffet, and other Boglehead heroes rode the upside of a secular multi-decade credit wave. Very easy to look smart during such financial asset inflation. Now the downside as the wave crests.
Maybe.. you might be right... but how come this expansion isn't any stronger than past expansions?

Stock market is growing about the same pace (actually slower) as it did in past bull markets where there wasn't "massive credit expansions".

So why is this one for sure caused a credit expansion and not just normal growth like in the past?

And where's the inflation we should see if this is all about credit expansion?
There's also a difference between what people are willing to pay to own a company, ie the stock market; and the economy overall. The two may well be correlated, but do not need to move in lockstep.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by milktoast » Thu Nov 07, 2019 6:59 pm

Should I move to 100% equity to reduce volatility?!

Ok. That's a joke. But seriously...

Last two days have Vanguard Total BND (BND) way more volatile than Vanguard Total Stock (VTI) or Vanguard Total International (VXUS).

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:33 pm

I split an interchange regarding the benefits of the Chinese tariffs on a local warehouse. The discussion was getting derailed.

Please stay on-topic, which is US stocks.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:26 am

DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:49 am
Looks like it will be another great day to be invested in the stock market!
It's always a great day to invest in U.S. stocks. :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:04 pm

Melt-up at the close today.

Another record closing high for S&P.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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whodidntante
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:11 pm

Stinky wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:04 pm
Melt-up at the close today.
Was it at least American cheese?

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:17 pm

Stinky wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:04 pm
Melt-up at the close today.

Another record closing high for S&P.
:sharebeer :beer
:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:21 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:11 pm
Stinky wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:04 pm
Melt-up at the close today.
Was it at least American cheese?
All-American!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:52 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:17 pm
Stinky wrote:
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:04 pm
Melt-up at the close today.

Another record closing high for S&P.
:sharebeer :beer
:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
A toast to U.S. stocks - may they continue to soar! :sharebeer

Image

Have a great weekend, all! :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:36 pm

After 18 months of moving nowhere, it was nice to have a week like this last one, it only took 3 consecutive earnings seasons to convince enough doubters. Shaping up to be one of those years where you struggle to keep your AA simply pouring new money into bonds. Here's to hoping the bull continues for another couple years!

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by McGilicutty » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:13 pm

mrspock wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:36 pm
After 18 months of moving nowhere, it was nice to have a week like this last one, it only took 3 consecutive earnings seasons to convince enough doubters. Shaping up to be one of those years where you struggle to keep your AA simply pouring new money into bonds. Here's to hoping the bull continues for another couple years!
What are these "bonds" you speak of? :wink:

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:20 pm

While I'm not trying to turn this into yet another 'U.S. vs. ex-U.S.' thread, the recent relative performance of the two is interesting. U.S. stocks have continued to march upwards since 2018 while ex-U.S. has continued to languish. The trend of U.S. outperformance has certainly kept going. It will certainly not always be the case, but no one knows when the trend will change.

Image
VTSAX vs. VTIAX
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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CyclingDuo » Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:59 am

TaxingAccount wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:36 am
DaftInvestor wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:49 am
Looks like it will be another great day to be invested in the stock market!
If you have a balanced portfolio you lost money today.
Curious why you even bothered to join Bogleheads.org and what value you receive personally by participating on the boards (considering you delete most all of your posts after you post them)?
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:17 pm

McGilicutty wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 2:13 pm
mrspock wrote:
Sat Nov 09, 2019 1:36 pm
After 18 months of moving nowhere, it was nice to have a week like this last one, it only took 3 consecutive earnings seasons to convince enough doubters. Shaping up to be one of those years where you struggle to keep your AA simply pouring new money into bonds. Here's to hoping the bull continues for another couple years!
What are these "bonds" you speak of? :wink:
:D

I haven't purchased any new equities over the past 6 months, due to the bull run.

My AA is set at 35% fixed income (TIAA Traditional, aka "bonds"), which I have kept purchasing over the past 6 months. Just when my AA gets back to 35% FI, VTSAX goes up again, gosh darn it. :beer
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:43 pm

Balanced portfolios are the prudent thing to do. All in VTI all the time is not prudent but more risk more reward. :greedy
oldzey wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:17 pm
VTSAX
VTI has a lower rake.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by whodidntante » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:08 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:43 pm
Balanced portfolios are the prudent thing to do. All in VTI all the time is not prudent but more risk more reward. :greedy
oldzey wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:17 pm
VTSAX
VTI has a lower rake.
Your poker reference has granted your character +1 charisma. :happy

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:22 am

Soaring today!

S&P has touched 3,099 today. 3,100 is in sight!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:25 am

Stinky wrote:
Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:22 am
Soaring today!

S&P has touched 3,099 today. 3,100 is in sight!
Achieved! :beer
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Tue Nov 12, 2019 5:23 pm

not at close though but seems imminent

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:29 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:08 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:43 pm
Balanced portfolios are the prudent thing to do. All in VTI all the time is not prudent but more risk more reward. :greedy
oldzey wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:17 pm
VTSAX
VTI has a lower rake.
Your poker reference has granted your character +1 charisma. :happy
I notice "investing" can be much like gambling depending on how one does it. I noticed the similarities when I try to catch the VTI falling knife. The ticker flashing by is not unlike the flashy graphics the online New Jersey casinos use. The big difference is buying and holding VTI I'm betting with the house and the house always wins in the long run. :greedy

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:59 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:29 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:08 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:43 pm
Balanced portfolios are the prudent thing to do. All in VTI all the time is not prudent but more risk more reward. :greedy
oldzey wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:17 pm
VTSAX
VTI has a lower rake.
Your poker reference has granted your character +1 charisma. :happy
I notice "investing" can be much like gambling depending on how one does it. I noticed the similarities when I try to catch the VTI falling knife. The ticker flashing by is not unlike the flashy graphics the online New Jersey casinos use. The big difference is buying and holding VTI I'm betting with the house and the house always wins in the long run. :greedy
Agreed. 100%.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm

This thread is supposed to be about the complete U.S. stocks picture but this is false. Small Caps which are are the quintessence of U.S. stocks are performing miserably and have been performing miserably for the last 2 years. Perhaps the title of this thread should be U.S. Multinationals continue to soar (based on large revenues coming from overseas).

In my view as long as the Small Caps are struggling things aren't looking OK. The S&P 600 is still stuck at the same level as January 2018 and has failed to break out of the range for what appears to be the 10th time??? As we time consolidate the 2-year return is going to turn out to be ZERO for the class and soon will turn negative.

Not only that I think this may be the worst run in the S&P 600's entire HISTORY (since 1994) outside of defined recessions, not looking good at all unless something changes soon.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:22 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm
This thread is supposed to be about the complete U.S. stocks picture but this is false. Small Caps which are are the quintessence of U.S. stocks are performing miserably and have been performing miserably for the last 2 years. Perhaps the title of this thread should be U.S. Multinationals continue to soar (based on large revenues coming from overseas).

In my view as long as the Small Caps are struggling things aren't looking OK. The S&P 600 is still stuck at the same level as January 2018 and has failed to break out of the range for what appears to be the 10th time??? As we time consolidate the 2-year return is going to turn out to be ZERO for the class and soon will turn negative.

Not only that I think this may be the worst run in the S&P 600's entire HISTORY (since 1994) outside of defined recessions, not looking good at all unless something changes soon.
This is just plain silly. You're arguing that U.S. stocks did well from 2000-2002 simply because small caps did well? That's absurd. You're redefining 'the market' from market capitalization to number of firms.

The small premium has been negative or zero for as long as 32 years in the past. Small-caps recent very slight underperformance (12.89% for large caps vs. 12.18% for small-caps since 2010 according to PV) is nothing compared to that.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluce » Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:51 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:22 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm
This thread is supposed to be about the complete U.S. stocks picture but this is false. Small Caps which are are the quintessence of U.S. stocks are performing miserably and have been performing miserably for the last 2 years. Perhaps the title of this thread should be U.S. Multinationals continue to soar (based on large revenues coming from overseas).

In my view as long as the Small Caps are struggling things aren't looking OK. The S&P 600 is still stuck at the same level as January 2018 and has failed to break out of the range for what appears to be the 10th time??? As we time consolidate the 2-year return is going to turn out to be ZERO for the class and soon will turn negative.

Not only that I think this may be the worst run in the S&P 600's entire HISTORY (since 1994) outside of defined recessions, not looking good at all unless something changes soon.
This is just plain silly. You're arguing that U.S. stocks did well from 2000-2002 simply because small caps did well? That's absurd. You're redefining 'the market' from market capitalization to number of firms.

The small premium has been negative or zero for as long as 32 years in the past. Small-caps recent very slight underperformance (12.89% for large caps vs. 12.18% for small-caps since 2010 according to PV) is nothing compared to that.
I agree.

If we look at "total market" index funds, most do not cover ALL publicly-traded stocks because the smallest several hundred or more aren't big enough, together, to move the index.

If you compare the S&P 500 index vs. total market (5,000+) index over a period longer than a few days or so, there really isn't any difference in performance.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:57 pm

very much like before Y2K .com bubble bust. I would do 50/50 AA or no more than 60/40. not to get too greedy.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Lee_WSP » Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:37 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm
This thread is supposed to be about the complete U.S. stocks picture but this is false. Small Caps which are are the quintessence of U.S. stocks are performing miserably and have been performing miserably for the last 2 years. Perhaps the title of this thread should be U.S. Multinationals continue to soar (based on large revenues coming from overseas).

In my view as long as the Small Caps are struggling things aren't looking OK. The S&P 600 is still stuck at the same level as January 2018 and has failed to break out of the range for what appears to be the 10th time??? As we time consolidate the 2-year return is going to turn out to be ZERO for the class and soon will turn negative.

Not only that I think this may be the worst run in the S&P 600's entire HISTORY (since 1994) outside of defined recessions, not looking good at all unless something changes soon.
Not sure if this is link is going to work, but it sure looks like they're performing about the same.

https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C1CH ... ab=COMPARE

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:47 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:37 pm
Not sure if this is link is going to work, but it sure looks like they're performing about the same.
Not over the last 2 years, there is a huge divergence. The S&P 600 peaked at 980 on Jan 26, 2018 and it exactly closed at 980 today. Zero price change in almost 2 years.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:57 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:47 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:37 pm
Not sure if this is link is going to work, but it sure looks like they're performing about the same.
Not over the last 2 years, there is a huge divergence. The S&P 600 peaked at 980 on Jan 26, 2018 and it exactly closed at 980 today. Zero price change in almost 2 years.
Two years in the market is just noise.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:22 pm

Ho hum, a other record close for DOW and S&P.

Anyone getting tired of this?

I am willing to suffer record highs, myself.

It's the drop that I know will be coming sometime that I dread. Oh well, I'm just along for the ride, and a glorious ride it has been. An embarrassment abundance of riches. Fortunately I am not easily embarrassed. :moneybag

Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch » Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:36 pm

Broken Man 1999 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:22 pm
Ho hum, a other record close for DOW and S&P.

Anyone getting tired of this?

I am willing to suffer record highs, myself.

It's the drop that I know will be coming sometime that I dread. Oh well, I'm just along for the ride, and a glorious ride it has been. An embarrassment abundance of riches. Fortunately I am not easily embarrassed. :moneybag

Broken Man 1999
Tired of this you ask? Your post reminds me of this Boglehead thread: viewtopic.php?t=232977

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:40 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:57 pm
very much like before Y2K .com bubble bust. I would do 50/50 AA or no more than 60/40. not to get too greedy.
I am curious why you say that?

I admit, I am not seeing that from where I sit, but I try to give consideration to the alternate case. In my view, Y2K was accompanied by wild euphoria and massive overbuilding, some of it by companies not caring if they showed a profit (and I'm not talking Amazon style, where the lack of profit was driving future revenue generation.)

I am not seeing either condition right now. I see a continued hesitancy to trust the market, and companies that refuse to hire one person more than they need to. Wealthy people are leaning cash, if recent articles are to be believed (and I did see one tracker that seemed to indicate this was a real shift over the past couple years.) These are all healthy things for sustained moderate growth.

The biggest risk I see is interest rates, but that's in a long-term sort of view.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:54 pm

Another good day. Almost had 3100 were it not for the wobble mid-day.

Interesting so much doom and gloom over equities going higher. I take this as a sign the bull will continue for quite some time.

We went sideways for almost two full years, with a giant dumpster fire last December and the market only moving upwards after three earnings seasons before it was convinced higher valuations were warranted. There’s even evidence the market learned its lesson from the 2000 tech bubble, and tech companies without a sane earnings story are having a really tough time (we work, uber etc) are having their valuations humbled with VCs left holding the bag vs. mom and pop.

It’s hardly a bull market gone wild, if anything it’s a contemplative and rational market. Long live the most hated bull market!

TropikThunder
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TropikThunder » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:05 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:22 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:31 pm
This thread is supposed to be about the complete U.S. stocks picture but this is false. Small Caps which are are the quintessence of U.S. stocks are performing miserably and have been performing miserably for the last 2 years. Perhaps the title of this thread should be U.S. Multinationals continue to soar (based on large revenues coming from overseas).

In my view as long as the Small Caps are struggling things aren't looking OK. The S&P 600 is still stuck at the same level as January 2018 and has failed to break out of the range for what appears to be the 10th time??? As we time consolidate the 2-year return is going to turn out to be ZERO for the class and soon will turn negative.

Not only that I think this may be the worst run in the S&P 600's entire HISTORY (since 1994) outside of defined recessions, not looking good at all unless something changes soon.
This is just plain silly. You're arguing that U.S. stocks did well from 2000-2002 simply because small caps did well? That's absurd. You're redefining 'the market' from market capitalization to number of firms.

The small premium has been negative or zero for as long as 32 years in the past. Small-caps recent very slight underperformance (12.89% for large caps vs. 12.18% for small-caps since 2010 according to PV) is nothing compared to that.
What's the point of being diversified if part of my portfolio is going to underperform? Everything I own should be soaring.

Yes, I'm kidding .....

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:18 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:40 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:57 pm
very much like before Y2K .com bubble bust. I would do 50/50 AA or no more than 60/40. not to get too greedy.
I am curious why you say that?

I admit, I am not seeing that from where I sit, but I try to give consideration to the alternate case. In my view, Y2K was accompanied by wild euphoria and massive overbuilding, some of it by companies not caring if they showed a profit (and I'm not talking Amazon style, where the lack of profit was driving future revenue generation.)

I am not seeing either condition right now. I see a continued hesitancy to trust the market, and companies that refuse to hire one person more than they need to. Wealthy people are leaning cash, if recent articles are to be believed (and I did see one tracker that seemed to indicate this was a real shift over the past couple years.) These are all healthy things for sustained moderate growth.

The biggest risk I see is interest rates, but that's in a long-term sort of view.
The biggest risk is the the trade war and global demand slow down. The current stock rally is due to Fed QE and interest reduction, low interest and stock buy back (less stock and more profit per share). Auto sale is down, housing demand soft, trade dispute and tariff.

Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe » Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:52 pm

3,094.04 +2.20 (0.071%)
Nov 13, 4:56 PM EST · Disclaimer

Superb.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:45 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:57 pm
Two years in the market is just noise.
Let's hope so... I know Small can underperform Large for years at a time but the asset class returning almost zero in a 2 year period while Large is breaking records is a tough pill to swallow, oh well, stay the course and see what happens I guess. This pattern seems to be unusual for the S&P 600, when there is no recession the performance has not been so poor ever in his history, the returns have been SOLID going all the way back to 1994. I am quite surprised.

Maybe we *are* in a recession or close to it and just don't know it yet since Small is usually a leading indicator? Who knows.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:52 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:45 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:57 pm
Two years in the market is just noise.
Let's hope so... I know Small can underperform Large for years at a time but the asset class returning almost zero in a 2 year period while Large is breaking records is a tough pill to swallow, oh well, stay the course and see what happens I guess.
That's the really tough bit about tilting (and indeed investing in multiple asset classes): there will be differences in the returns of the asset classes, and these difference may be significant and persistent over long periods of time. Investors should know that full well on the front-end, and if they are unwilling to stay the course with one or more asset classes underperforming another for a decade or longer, they should not tilt.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:54 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:45 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:57 pm
Two years in the market is just noise.
Let's hope so... I know Small can underperform Large for years at a time but the asset class returning almost zero in a 2 year period while Large is breaking records is a tough pill to swallow, oh well, stay the course and see what happens I guess.
International developed small-cap value went sideways for 3 years (actually ending down more than 10%) while International developed markets went up 50%. Which would you have rather been holding from then until today?

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ » Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:03 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:45 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:57 pm
Two years in the market is just noise.
Let's hope so... I know Small can underperform Large for years at a time but the asset class returning almost zero in a 2 year period while Large is breaking records is a tough pill to swallow, oh well, stay the course and see what happens I guess. This pattern seems to be unusual for the S&P 600, when there is no recession the performance has not been so poor ever in his history, the returns have been SOLID going all the way back to 1994. I am quite surprised.

Maybe we *are* in a recession or close to it and just don't know it yet since Small is usually a leading indicator? Who knows.
So don't tilt.

Buy the market, and stop trying to be smarter than the average bear.
The J stands for Jay

anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop » Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:45 am

Inflation is trending above the fed's target
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... -show.html

Yet the fed is lowering rates.

Perhaps they will raise the inflation target.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powel ... 2019-06-19
(Powell may warm up to the idea.)

Which will result in moar soar.

inbox788
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by inbox788 » Thu Nov 14, 2019 4:29 am

anoop wrote:
Thu Nov 14, 2019 3:45 am
Inflation is trending above the fed's target
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019 ... -show.html
No it's not (yet).
Core PCE is for September and increased 1.7% year-over-year (Core PCE is below 2%)
PCE and CPI Inflation: What’s the Difference? "The Federal Reserve, however, states its goal for inflation in terms of the PCE."
https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-a ... rence.aspx
Yet the fed is lowering rates.
The fed just lowered rates 3 times and latest speech is being interpreted as being on hold. "Data dependent"
Perhaps they will raise the inflation target.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powel ... 2019-06-19
(Powell may warm up to the idea.)

Which will result in moar soar.
Not sure varying inflation target is consistent with their mandate of "stable prices".

If all cost and prices doubled from higher inflation and higher stock index numbers, we may not be improving. Ideally, we'd like higher higher growth and productivity with low inflation. Ultimately/eventually, the stock market has to reflect the real gdp growth, doesn't it? viewtopic.php?t=278935

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