I pulled out... How do I get back in?

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minimalistmarc
Posts: 468
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by minimalistmarc » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:12 am

Domadosolo wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:17 am
I have all my IRA in MM.
Suggestions for getting back in the market? ETFs?

Why did i pull out? I wanted to hedge some market downside, anticipating a 5% drop with the global uncertainty, knowing i could miss a 5% upside
I didn't pull out of the taxable assets due to tax issues,
Silly me, pulled out trying to time the market, anticipating a 5% drop...
But, Market is down so I might start getting in.

What do you suggest?

-58y, retired, sufficient cash flow from taxable assets for the next 10 years.

This one is easy. Wait till the bottom then get back in and enjoy the ride up.

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:50 am

anoop wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:19 am
I pulled out in Feb 2008 and never got back in, so I can't help you. :)
I hear you

Shallowpockets
Posts: 1287
Joined: Fri Nov 20, 2015 10:26 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Shallowpockets » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:58 am

Don't know where you sold, but if you got that 5% drop, buy back in. That was your premise wasn't it?
That 50% upside is as unlikely as a 50% drop. Unless you stay out for a lengthy period of time.

bradinsky
Posts: 142
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2018 6:32 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by bradinsky » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:04 am

Pick a target date fund that matches your AA and invest everything. Having a 5 fund portfolio might temp you to tinker, and that’s what put you into this position in the first place.

User avatar
1789
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:31 pm
Location: OR

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by 1789 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:55 am

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
No, target retirement fund will protect you from your biggest enemy. If you have too many options, you will jump in and out more frequently and eventually will end up in same situation.
"My conscience wants vegetarianism to win over the world. And my subconscious is yearning for a piece of juicy meat. But what do i want?" (Andrei Tarkovsky)

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 13210
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by willthrill81 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:58 am

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Aside from the likely behavioral advantages that target-date funds offer, the costs can be quite low. Vanguard's target-date funds have very low expenses. But many firms' target-date funds have ridiculously high expense ratios (e.g. TIAA).
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

KlangFool
Posts: 13709
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by KlangFool » Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:05 pm

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Domadosolo,

1) You are not capable of handling 5 ETFs. So, it is pointless to discuss the fees of a plan that you cannot execute.

2) The fees are insignificant as compared to the cost of your market timing behavior.

KlangFool

frcabot
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:59 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by frcabot » Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:06 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:12 am
Domadosolo wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:17 am
I have all my IRA in MM.
Suggestions for getting back in the market? ETFs?

Why did i pull out? I wanted to hedge some market downside, anticipating a 5% drop with the global uncertainty, knowing i could miss a 5% upside
I didn't pull out of the taxable assets due to tax issues,
Silly me, pulled out trying to time the market, anticipating a 5% drop...
But, Market is down so I might start getting in.

What do you suggest?

-58y, retired, sufficient cash flow from taxable assets for the next 10 years.
This one is easy. Wait till the bottom then get back in and enjoy the ride up.
Is this sarcasm? How does one tell where the bottom is?

SchruteB&B
Posts: 167
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:48 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by SchruteB&B » Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:50 pm

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Schwab offers Target Date index funds for .08

3funder
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:35 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by 3funder » Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:59 pm

l1am wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:47 am
I suggest buying back in now with an AA you're actually comfortable with.
+1. Also, make sure you allocate some of this to international stocks. US stocks, in my opinion, are mighty expensive. I invest in them, but I dollar-cost-average every two weeks via my 403(b), and I plan on working at least another three decades.

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1936
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:42 pm

frcabot wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:06 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:12 am
Domadosolo wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:17 am
I have all my IRA in MM.
Suggestions for getting back in the market? ETFs?

Why did i pull out? I wanted to hedge some market downside, anticipating a 5% drop with the global uncertainty, knowing i could miss a 5% upside
I didn't pull out of the taxable assets due to tax issues,
Silly me, pulled out trying to time the market, anticipating a 5% drop...
But, Market is down so I might start getting in.

What do you suggest?

-58y, retired, sufficient cash flow from taxable assets for the next 10 years.
This one is easy. Wait till the bottom then get back in and enjoy the ride up.
Is this sarcasm? How does one tell where the bottom is?
That is sarcasm.

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:45 pm

GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:42 pm
frcabot wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:06 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:12 am
Domadosolo wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:17 am
I have all my IRA in MM.
Suggestions for getting back in the market? ETFs?

Why did i pull out? I wanted to hedge some market downside, anticipating a 5% drop with the global uncertainty, knowing i could miss a 5% upside
I didn't pull out of the taxable assets due to tax issues,
Silly me, pulled out trying to time the market, anticipating a 5% drop...
But, Market is down so I might start getting in.

What do you suggest?

-58y, retired, sufficient cash flow from taxable assets for the next 10 years.
This one is easy. Wait till the bottom then get back in and enjoy the ride up.
Is this sarcasm? How does one tell where the bottom is?
That is sarcasm.
It is great advice nonetheless ! :greedy

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:46 pm

3funder wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 2:59 pm
l1am wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:47 am
I suggest buying back in now with an AA you're actually comfortable with.
+1. Also, make sure you allocate some of this to international stocks. US stocks, in my opinion, are mighty expensive. I invest in them, but I dollar-cost-average every two weeks via my 403(b), and I plan on working at least another three decades.
That is sensible

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:48 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:05 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Domadosolo,

1) You are not capable of handling 5 ETFs. So, it is pointless to discuss the fees of a plan that you cannot execute.

2) The fees are insignificant as compared to the cost of your market timing behavior.

KlangFool
Why should you say #1 :?:

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 15531
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by abuss368 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:53 pm

No one knows! Our crystal ball is no better or worse than anyone else.

There are three investment strategies:

* Asset Allocation
* Security Selection
* Market Timing

It has been proven many times that market timing and security selection does not work. The most important decision an investor can make is the asset allocation of a portfolio.
John C. Bogle: "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 15531
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by abuss368 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:53 pm

With market timing one has to be correct twice: when to get out and when o get back in.
John C. Bogle: "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:56 pm

SchruteB&B wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:50 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Schwab offers Target Date index funds for .08
Thanks, good pointer. I should’ve researched this a bit more before asking.
The only thing I don’t like about a target fund is the inability to pick the sector I want to harvest based on market performance/uncertainty or what I may need to divest for an unexpected cash emergency. But I guess their regular rebalancing sorta takes care of it in the bigger picture. And hopefully I don’t need to touch it until target date 😀

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:58 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:53 pm
With market timing one has to be correct twice: when to get out and when o get back in.
👍

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 15531
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by abuss368 » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:00 pm

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:58 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:53 pm
With market timing one has to be correct twice: when to get out and when o get back in.
👍
Thanks. I recall our individual stock picking days. Go to cash! Buy low! Back up the truck! Go all in!

In hindsight, it never worked. What did work was the high fees and taxes we incurred.
John C. Bogle: "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

Silence Dogood
Posts: 1102
Joined: Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:22 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Silence Dogood » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:08 pm

KlangFool wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:05 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Domadosolo,

1) You are not capable of handling 5 ETFs. So, it is pointless to discuss the fees of a plan that you cannot execute.

2) The fees are insignificant as compared to the cost of your market timing behavior.

KlangFool
This advice is spot on.

OP, you are risking your financial well being with these shenanigans.

GoldenFinch
Posts: 1936
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2014 11:34 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by GoldenFinch » Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:22 pm

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:48 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:05 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Domadosolo,

1) You are not capable of handling 5 ETFs. So, it is pointless to discuss the fees of a plan that you cannot execute.

2) The fees are insignificant as compared to the cost of your market timing behavior.

KlangFool
Why should you say #1 :?:
He says it because he thinks you might panic sell when the market goes down. You are better off in a set it and forget it target fund. Why? Because you can set it and forget it! You will come out ahead because you won’t have the temptation to market time. It’s an all in one fund that will rebalance for you so you don’t have to do anything.

User avatar
jabberwockOG
Posts: 1785
Joined: Thu May 28, 2015 7:23 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by jabberwockOG » Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:26 pm

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:56 pm
SchruteB&B wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:50 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Schwab offers Target Date index funds for .08
Thanks, good pointer. I should’ve researched this a bit more before asking.
The only thing I don’t like about a target fund is the inability to pick the sector I want to harvest based on market performance/uncertainty or what I may need to divest for an unexpected cash emergency. But I guess their regular rebalancing sorta takes care of it in the bigger picture. And hopefully I don’t need to touch it until target date 😀


Sorry to be blunt the primary focus of this forum is two fold and very simple to comprehend - 1) market timing is impossible and a fools errand, 2) the average retail investor has no chance of predicting which market sector(s), or which companies will outperform others over time.  Hence the Boglehead advice to buy the entire stock and bond market via index funds using an asset allocation that fits your risk tolerance. No offense but your questions and goals appear to largely out of sync with this forum as appropriate market timing methods and picking sectors are topics for different forums (of which there are many).

frcabot
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:59 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by frcabot » Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:14 pm

jabberwockOG wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:26 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:56 pm
SchruteB&B wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:50 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am


+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Schwab offers Target Date index funds for .08
Thanks, good pointer. I should’ve researched this a bit more before asking.
The only thing I don’t like about a target fund is the inability to pick the sector I want to harvest based on market performance/uncertainty or what I may need to divest for an unexpected cash emergency. But I guess their regular rebalancing sorta takes care of it in the bigger picture. And hopefully I don’t need to touch it until target date 😀


Sorry to be blunt the primary focus of this forum is two fold and very simple to comprehend - 1) market timing is impossible and a fools errand, 2) the average retail investor has no chance of predicting which market sector(s), or which companies will outperform others over time.  Hence the Boglehead advice to buy the entire stock and bond market via index funds using an asset allocation that fits your risk tolerance. No offense but your questions and goals appear to largely out of sync with this forum as appropriate market timing methods and picking sectors are topics for different forums (of which there are many).
I’d quibble a bit with this. The Bogle philosophy isn’t that index funds are absolutely required (because, in fact, active management can be quite beneficial in the fixed income, small cap and emerging market sectors), but rather that expense ratios are a huge component of returns and that any alpha generated by active management will often be consumed by high ERs. Most bond fund managers beat the market year over year, even after fees. The opposite is true in the large-cap equity sector, where most funds lag the SP500 after fees.

On the whole, studies have shown that attempts to market time by retail investors usually fail, and that future stock performance is very difficult to predict, especially consistently. So yes, “harvesting based on market performance/uncertainty” is almost sure to cost you money.

Pick an asset allocation, and then pick either a balanced fund, or 1-2 stock funds (domestic and international) and a bond fund, and rebalance to stick to your desired allocation (which should only change based on your risk tolerance rather than “market performance”). The funds don’t *have* to be index funds (especially for the bond fund or international fund) but they should be low-cost funds.
Last edited by frcabot on Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

KlangFool
Posts: 13709
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by KlangFool » Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:32 pm

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:48 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:05 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am
UpperNwGuy wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:05 am
KlangFool wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 12:47 pm
OP,

No ETF. Pick a target retirement fund.

KlangFool
+1
Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Domadosolo,

1) You are not capable of handling 5 ETFs. So, it is pointless to discuss the fees of a plan that you cannot execute.

2) The fees are insignificant as compared to the cost of your market timing behavior.

KlangFool
Why should you say #1 :?:
Domadosolo,

<<I have all my IRA in MM.
Suggestions for getting back in the market? ETFs?

Why did i pull out? I wanted to hedge some market downside, anticipating a 5% drop with the global uncertainty, knowing i could miss a 5% upside>>

You did this. So, what makes you think that you can handle 5 ETFs?

KlangFool

User avatar
LittleGreenSoldiers
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:59 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by LittleGreenSoldiers » Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:48 pm

What a great example of stay the course. No body knows.
The is a general statement not to be targeted at the OP:
If at a certain age a slight pull back in the market in one week scares someone then their asset allocation is not appropriate for them at this point in their life.

Why follow this forum and not adhere to it's fundamental tenets when things change? A simple reminders to all to stay the course.

fareastwarriors
Posts: 1042
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2012 12:31 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by fareastwarriors » Fri Oct 04, 2019 12:23 am

It seems like you have a strategy already. If it works for you, stick with it.

Momus
Posts: 765
Joined: Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:23 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Momus » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:03 am

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:12 am
Domadosolo wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:17 am
I have all my IRA in MM.
Suggestions for getting back in the market? ETFs?

Why did i pull out? I wanted to hedge some market downside, anticipating a 5% drop with the global uncertainty, knowing i could miss a 5% upside
I didn't pull out of the taxable assets due to tax issues,
Silly me, pulled out trying to time the market, anticipating a 5% drop...
But, Market is down so I might start getting in.

What do you suggest?

-58y, retired, sufficient cash flow from taxable assets for the next 10 years.

This one is easy. Wait till the bottom then get back in and enjoy the ride up.
You probably will miss 20-50% run up like most people who market time. Gonna see you get back in 2-5 more years from now during another all time high LOL.

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Fri Oct 04, 2019 6:38 am

frcabot wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:14 pm
jabberwockOG wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:26 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:56 pm
SchruteB&B wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:50 pm
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:47 am


Why target retirement fund instead of 5 etfs?
Won’t I be paying too much in fees?
Schwab offers Target Date index funds for .08
Thanks, good pointer. I should’ve researched this a bit more before asking.
The only thing I don’t like about a target fund is the inability to pick the sector I want to harvest based on market performance/uncertainty or what I may need to divest for an unexpected cash emergency. But I guess their regular rebalancing sorta takes care of it in the bigger picture. And hopefully I don’t need to touch it until target date 😀


Sorry to be blunt the primary focus of this forum is two fold and very simple to comprehend - 1) market timing is impossible and a fools errand, 2) the average retail investor has no chance of predicting which market sector(s), or which companies will outperform others over time.  Hence the Boglehead advice to buy the entire stock and bond market via index funds using an asset allocation that fits your risk tolerance. No offense but your questions and goals appear to largely out of sync with this forum as appropriate market timing methods and picking sectors are topics for different forums (of which there are many).
I’d quibble a bit with this. The Bogle philosophy isn’t that index funds are absolutely required (because, in fact, active management can be quite beneficial in the fixed income, small cap and emerging market sectors), but rather that expense ratios are a huge component of returns and that any alpha generated by active management will often be consumed by high ERs. Most bond fund managers beat the market year over year, even after fees. The opposite is true in the large-cap equity sector, where most funds lag the SP500 after fees.

On the whole, studies have shown that attempts to market time by retail investors usually fail, and that future stock performance is very difficult to predict, especially consistently. So yes, “harvesting based on market performance/uncertainty” is almost sure to cost you money.

Pick an asset allocation, and then pick either a balanced fund, or 1-2 stock funds (domestic and international) and a bond fund, and rebalance to stick to your desired allocation (which should only change based on your risk tolerance rather than “market performance”). The funds don’t *have* to be index funds (especially for the bond fund or international fund) but they should be low-cost funds.
Thanks

KandT
Posts: 118
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:32 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by KandT » Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:01 am

If you want to try market timing why not take $10K and take a swing at it - Not your retirement's future.

Just be sure like every person I have ever talked to who goes to casinos. They either "break even" or they won. They never lose more than they planned too either. Sometimes I wonder how casinos stay in business letting everyone win or break even or at worst lose $80!!

Point being only tell people when you are beating the market which you likely will at some point early on. When the cycle turns just pretend you didn't hear the question. :D

ivk5
Posts: 896
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:05 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by ivk5 » Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:12 am

Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:45 pm
GoldenFinch wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:42 pm
frcabot wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:06 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:12 am
This one is easy. Wait till the bottom then get back in and enjoy the ride up.
Is this sarcasm? How does one tell where the bottom is?
That is sarcasm.
It is great advice nonetheless ! :greedy
Domadosolo wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:48 pm
KlangFool wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:05 pm
Domadosolo,

1) You are not capable of handling 5 ETFs. So, it is pointless to discuss the fees of a plan that you cannot execute.

2) The fees are insignificant as compared to the cost of your market timing behavior.

KlangFool
Why should you say #1 :?:

The first step is admitting you have a problem. Not sure we're there yet.

PharmerBrown
Posts: 62
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:50 pm
Location: Pennsylvania

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by PharmerBrown » Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:20 am

I think you've proven that you would benefit from having a financial advisor. Find a good one that will talk you out of doing this the next time, because there will be a next time.

KlangFool
Posts: 13709
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by KlangFool » Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:40 am

PharmerBrown wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:20 am
I think you've proven that you would benefit from having a financial advisor. Find a good one that will talk you out of doing this the next time, because there will be a next time.
PharmerBrown,

It won't work. OP has to admit that he is not smarter than everyone else. He needs to take the first step first. At this moment, he believes that he can see the future and predict the stock market movement.

KlangFool

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:37 pm

PharmerBrown wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:20 am
I think you've proven that you would benefit from having a financial advisor. Find a good one that will talk you out of doing this the next time, because there will be a next time.

Good advice, I agree, however, I’ve cycled through a couple FAs. One tried to annuitize my IRA. Another wanted to take over my non-qual stock portfolio for a fee, but promised to keep it the same (?) so I didn’t have a tax impact. (They wanted a 1% management fee for the pleasure 😆).
Both made it clear they had fiduciary duty, but obviously didn’t. I ran away quickly.
A couple others I interviewed had their own vested interest, like offering Lifetime protection(code for annuities)

I have grown wary, Finding a good one you can trust is a challenge. I am actively searching

minimalistmarc
Posts: 468
Joined: Fri Jul 24, 2015 4:38 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by minimalistmarc » Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:49 pm

frcabot wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:06 pm
minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:12 am
Domadosolo wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:17 am
I have all my IRA in MM.
Suggestions for getting back in the market? ETFs?

Why did i pull out? I wanted to hedge some market downside, anticipating a 5% drop with the global uncertainty, knowing i could miss a 5% upside
I didn't pull out of the taxable assets due to tax issues,
Silly me, pulled out trying to time the market, anticipating a 5% drop...
But, Market is down so I might start getting in.

What do you suggest?

-58y, retired, sufficient cash flow from taxable assets for the next 10 years.
This one is easy. Wait till the bottom then get back in and enjoy the ride up.
Is this sarcasm? How does one tell where the bottom is?
Yes, was trying to be funny. Don’t time the market!

mptfan
Posts: 5470
Joined: Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:58 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by mptfan » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:01 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:12 am
This one is easy. Wait till the bottom then get back in and enjoy the ride up.
Thanks for the tip! Can you please let me know when the market hits bottom?

User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 2567
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:07 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by CyclingDuo » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:06 pm

Domadosolo wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 1:37 pm
PharmerBrown wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:20 am
I think you've proven that you would benefit from having a financial advisor. Find a good one that will talk you out of doing this the next time, because there will be a next time.

Good advice, I agree, however, I’ve cycled through a couple FAs. One tried to annuitize my IRA. Another wanted to take over my non-qual stock portfolio for a fee, but promised to keep it the same (?) so I didn’t have a tax impact. (They wanted a 1% management fee for the pleasure 😆).
Both made it clear they had fiduciary duty, but obviously didn’t. I ran away quickly.
A couple others I interviewed had their own vested interest, like offering Lifetime protection(code for annuities)

I have grown wary, Finding a good one you can trust is a challenge. I am actively searching
If you are here on the Boglehead forums, it doesn't take much active searching....

Vanguard PAS: https://investor.vanguard.com/advice/pe ... :FAS:6:SCP
"Everywhere is within walking distance if you have the time." ~ Steven Wright

rkhusky
Posts: 7236
Joined: Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:09 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by rkhusky » Fri Oct 04, 2019 5:54 pm

While the OP has been dithering about the “best” option, he has lost more than 20 years of ER for a standard target date fund, due to the market changes the last few days. Which shows how minor an ER difference of 0.10% really is.

Dregob
Posts: 27
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:45 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Dregob » Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:00 pm

The "pull out method" is an inefficient strategy whether you are talking about stocks or birth control.

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 13267
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by HomerJ » Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:26 pm

YogurtRunner wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:57 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 1:34 pm
A 50% run-up would be missed, and it might happen before the next 20% or more drop.

...

I'm just curious as to where you eternal optimism stems from? We have had an outstanding year until recently and yet nothing in my portfolio has, to my knowledge, experienced a "50% run up." A couple of notable funds were hovering at 24% YTD until the recent unpleasantness and though I have not looked, I suspect those gains will all be gone by the end of the year in the same fashion as took place last year because that appears to be the "new game" where insiders are making their wealth at the expense of buy and holders who are now some 60% of the all indexes and are thus sheep ripe for the shearing. If I am saying anything too far out of line, please correct me, I am all ears. And yes, I am mostly one of those sheep, but I do have horns.
I never said 50% in one year.

In 1996, valuations were the highest they had ever been since the Great Depression. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve himself talked about "irrational exuberance", how the market was irrationally too high and due for a crash.

Anyone who got out, waiting for a correction had to watch the market grow 110% over the next 4 years, and even when the dot-com crash happened, prices never got as low as 1996.

1996 was an excellent time to buy, even though all the indicators said otherwise.

We just don't know.

The market could indeed start a 20% crash tomorrow. It could also start a 50% runup first. We just don't know.

I am absolutely NOT an "eternal optimist". I prepare myself for 50% crash starting tomorrow. Because it might happen. So I have a conservative Asset Allocation (50/50 at age 50). I can afford to lose (hopefully temporarily) 25% of my portfolio.

But I recognize that I can't predict the future, and no one else can either. So I would never go 100/0 or 0/100, because I don't know what's going to happen next. We just don't know.
The J stands for Jay

smectym
Posts: 531
Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 5:07 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by smectym » Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:54 am

Agree with HomerJ’s agnosticism. Therefore, OP, whatever you do, do it with low conviction. I would even consider sticking with your original call to bail out. There are worse things than a zero-risk portfolio earning 2%. And there is nothing especially wonderful about this current market. But if you must, gradually reallocate to a conservative mix.

barelybarefoot
Posts: 44
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:15 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by barelybarefoot » Sun Oct 06, 2019 1:23 am

Dregob wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 8:00 pm
The "pull out method" is an inefficient strategy whether you are talking about stocks or birth control.
Actually, in the Gyn world they call it ‘the pull and pray method,’ might be the same for stocks though

Call_Me_Op
Posts: 7366
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Location: Milky Way

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Call_Me_Op » Sun Oct 06, 2019 6:56 am

Domadosolo wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:17 am
I have all my IRA in MM.
Suggestions for getting back in the market? ETFs?

Why did i pull out? I wanted to hedge some market downside, anticipating a 5% drop with the global uncertainty, knowing i could miss a 5% upside
I didn't pull out of the taxable assets due to tax issues,
Silly me, pulled out trying to time the market, anticipating a 5% drop...
But, Market is down so I might start getting in.

What do you suggest?

-58y, retired, sufficient cash flow from taxable assets for the next 10 years.
You need to learn or re-learn how the stock market works. Were you the only one who perceived this global uncertainty? If it exists, don't you think that it's already baked-into stock prices?

You can't reliably time the market. You need to really drill that into your head. Then devise a plan you can live with and implement it.
Best regards, -Op | | "In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity." Einstein

Prettyfrtnt
Posts: 117
Joined: Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:28 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Prettyfrtnt » Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:36 am

Thoughts to help you buy and hold and not worry about the market going up or down:

1) Every day the market is more like to go up than down. I read a study that the downs are slightly more than the ups which we all know but if you look at the historical returns of the market any given day is stacked in your favor 53:47 approximately. This is better then being the house in a casino in many situations!

2) Every day you are sidelined you are more likely than not to be losing yourself money.

3) all the big historical dips were fixed in a short number of years. OP needs to work on his asset allocation. Then change his passwords and give to a trusted person. And then cancel his cable completely (CNBC etc.). And pick up a new hobby like golfing so he can just leave his 30:70 3 fund portfolio alone.

If OP missed the last 10 years in equity markets :oops: Cause all the indexes on Morningstar show 4x plus growth. Ouch. OP could conceivably have 40 years funds in taxable.

The world always has uncertainty. But the market usually goes up. And always has gone up when looked at over longer intervals. Sit back and relax and buy some equities. More is better.

Raraculus
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 10:43 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Raraculus » Sun Oct 06, 2019 7:36 pm

Prettyfrtnt wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:36 am
1) Every day the market is more like to go up than down. I read a study that the downs are slightly more than the ups which we all know but if you look at the historical returns of the market any given day is stacked in your favor 53:47 approximately. This is better then being the house in a casino in many situations!
Where did you find this study?
Thanks.

Topic Author
Domadosolo
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:53 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by Domadosolo » Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:03 am

Prettyfrtnt wrote:
Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:36 am
Thoughts to help you buy and hold and not worry about the market going up or down:

1) Every day the market is more like to go up than down. I read a study that the downs are slightly more than the ups which we all know but if you look at the historical returns of the market any given day is stacked in your favor 53:47 approximately. This is better then being the house in a casino in many situations!

2) Every day you are sidelined you are more likely than not to be losing yourself money.

3) all the big historical dips were fixed in a short number of years. OP needs to work on his asset allocation. Then change his passwords and give to a trusted person. And then cancel his cable completely (CNBC etc.). And pick up a new hobby like golfing so he can just leave his 30:70 3 fund portfolio alone.

If OP missed the last 10 years in equity markets :oops: Cause all the indexes on Morningstar show 4x plus growth. Ouch. OP could conceivably have 40 years funds in taxable.

The world always has uncertainty. But the market usually goes up. And always has gone up when looked at over longer intervals. Sit back and relax and buy some equities. More is better.
Lots of advice on this thread, some good, and some skeweringly hostile, surely all well meaning, and true for particular scenarios. Your note is thoughtful.
Thanks again to all for your responses.
Yup - skeweringly is now a word 😀

barnaclebob
Posts: 3926
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:54 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by barnaclebob » Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:57 am

H-Town wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:48 am
FrugalConservative wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:38 am
H-Town wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:36 am
Nah - I would wait... If you're already out, no need to rush to get back in. A 5%-10% run-up won't be missed. On the other hand, a 20% drop or more would do damage to your portfolio.

How to get in? No perfect method. Just buy in 10% of the cash during RBD (Really Bad Days) where market dropped 1.5% - 2% in the row. For example: I would buy some today. Not all. But maybe 10% and then wait and see for the next RBD.
This is horrible advice during the current bull market.
Yours could be worse. You implied that this is still a bull market. Best of lucks. :beer

Buying the dips gave me a decent profit during Dec 2018. Can't wait for the next one.
Can you show when and what trades you made along with how long you had been holding the money for those trades if it was previously held in cash?

H-Town
Posts: 2017
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by H-Town » Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:05 pm

barnaclebob wrote:
Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:57 am
H-Town wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:48 am
FrugalConservative wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:38 am
H-Town wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:36 am
Nah - I would wait... If you're already out, no need to rush to get back in. A 5%-10% run-up won't be missed. On the other hand, a 20% drop or more would do damage to your portfolio.

How to get in? No perfect method. Just buy in 10% of the cash during RBD (Really Bad Days) where market dropped 1.5% - 2% in the row. For example: I would buy some today. Not all. But maybe 10% and then wait and see for the next RBD.
This is horrible advice during the current bull market.
Yours could be worse. You implied that this is still a bull market. Best of lucks. :beer

Buying the dips gave me a decent profit during Dec 2018. Can't wait for the next one.
Can you show when and what trades you made along with how long you had been holding the money for those trades if it was previously held in cash?
I don't sell stocks to expect a market drop. It just happened that I have MM/bonds/bonus there. The run-up has been very nice since Jan 2019.

Acct 1: buy the dips
Image

Acct 2: buy & hold
Image

If OP already cashed out, he just need to forget about it. What's done is done. What's important is that what he's going to do from this point. And like I said, I would look for opportunities to buy the dips at this point. I'm in no hurries to jump back in 100%.

H-Town
Posts: 2017
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by H-Town » Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:25 pm

Domadosolo wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:35 pm
Over what period of time would you recommend ? Next 6 months?
I don't know. You won't know the ideal time to get back in until after all said and done. But yeah, anything less than one year if I were in your shoes.

barnaclebob
Posts: 3926
Joined: Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:54 am

Re: I pulled out... How do I get back in?

Post by barnaclebob » Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:37 am

H-Town wrote:
Tue Oct 08, 2019 5:05 pm
barnaclebob wrote:
Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:57 am
H-Town wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:48 am
FrugalConservative wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:38 am
H-Town wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 11:36 am
Nah - I would wait... If you're already out, no need to rush to get back in. A 5%-10% run-up won't be missed. On the other hand, a 20% drop or more would do damage to your portfolio.

How to get in? No perfect method. Just buy in 10% of the cash during RBD (Really Bad Days) where market dropped 1.5% - 2% in the row. For example: I would buy some today. Not all. But maybe 10% and then wait and see for the next RBD.
This is horrible advice during the current bull market.
Yours could be worse. You implied that this is still a bull market. Best of lucks. :beer

Buying the dips gave me a decent profit during Dec 2018. Can't wait for the next one.
Can you show when and what trades you made along with how long you had been holding the money for those trades if it was previously held in cash?
I don't sell stocks to expect a market drop. It just happened that I have MM/bonds/bonus there. The run-up has been very nice since Jan 2019.

Acct 1: buy the dips
Image

Acct 2: buy & hold
Image

If OP already cashed out, he just need to forget about it. What's done is done. What's important is that what he's going to do from this point. And like I said, I would look for opportunities to buy the dips at this point. I'm in no hurries to jump back in 100%.
Sure you won this time but what about any bonus or cash you had on hand between 1/2010 and 1/2018? At most points during those 8 years your look for the dip strategy would have been very unsuccessful. There was maybe 18 months where the SP500 was higher than a coming dip.

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