U.S. stocks in free fall

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:42 pm

Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this.

Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've thought about doing this for a long time, but only the rear view mirror will tell me if it was the right choice or not.
If only the partisans would admit that there is no compelling evidence for either position (all U.S. versus a world market weight), and learn the differences between opinion, prediction, hypothesis, fact and evidence.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:43 pm

Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this.

Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've thought about doing this for a long time, but only the rear view mirror will tell me if it was the right choice or not.
Now international stocks will soar! Lol

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jibantik » Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:59 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:42 pm
Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this.

Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've thought about doing this for a long time, but only the rear view mirror will tell me if it was the right choice or not.
If only the partisans would admit that there is no compelling evidence for either position (all U.S. versus a world market weight), and learn the differences between opinion, prediction, hypothesis, fact and evidence.
Because no one can possibly predict how thousands of companies will perform decades into the future is precisely why people should hold market cap (which includes international).
Jags4186 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:28 am
I know :happy I’m just pointing out that one only rebalances into international with the hope that it will eventually perform better. We have no evidence that this will happen.
Not true at all. I invest in the total (world) market at weight to get total market returns. I can guarantee that looking back 30 years from now there will be a portfolio that outperformed mine, but I don't know (and no one does) which subset of the market will perform better, which is precisely why I invest in the TOTAL market.

This thread is a little strange. People are saying there is no evidence that some stocks will outperform others, so they are deciding to speculate on a subset of stocks. Based on what?? You just said there was no evidence... :confused

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jags4186 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:12 pm

jibantik wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:59 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:28 am
I know :happy I’m just pointing out that one only rebalances into international with the hope that it will eventually perform better. We have no evidence that this will happen.
Not true at all. I invest in the total (world) market at weight to get total market returns. I can guarantee that looking back 30 years from now there will be a portfolio that outperformed mine, but I don't know (and no one does) which subset of the market will perform better, which is precisely why I invest in the TOTAL market.

This thread is a little strange. People are saying there is no evidence that some stocks will outperform others, so they are deciding to speculate on a subset of stocks. Based on what?? You just said there was no evidence... :confused
There is history and evidence that tells us some subsets of stocks will outperform others. Int’l large cap stocks (of which VXUS is mostly comprised of) are not one of the subsets that has historically done well compared to US stocks.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 305pelusa » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:13 pm

jibantik wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:59 pm
People are saying there is no evidence that some stocks will outperform others, so they are deciding to speculate on a subset of stocks. Based on what?? You just said there was no evidence... :confused
Lol yes.

My other favorite inconsistency is when posters claim there's no diversification benefit from having Intl since the markets are so interconnected and have high correlation.

The very same posters will then show historical performance as to how Intl has been a drag and the "diversification did not help" as though it was further evidence of the above.

Well, if Intl has been a drag and unhelpful, isn't that saying that it behaved differently than US? That one has, can and will beat the other one? If you don't know which one, hold both.

These posters don't realize that the historical evidence that there is no diversification benefit would be if they kept returning AROUND THE SAME. If neither one under/overperformed.

The mere fact one can severely underperform (their evidence for excluding it) tells me the is excellent diversification benefit to holding it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:32 pm

Debates on US vs. International allocations should be continued in: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:39 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:48 am
Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this.

Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've thought about doing this for a long time, but only the rear view mirror will tell me if it was the right choice or not.
Why bother with Total US when you could hold 100% Microsoft? There is no hard-core evidence for holding the full US and MSFT has been killing it.
Thanks for selling. I can buy the shares even cheaper.
Last edited by lostdog on Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
VT, BNDW and chill.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:43 pm

Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 10:11 am
jibantik wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:58 am
Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this.

Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've thought about doing this for a long time, but only the rear view mirror will tell me if it was the right choice or not.
This makes no sense. If there is no hard-core evidence, why would you CHANGE your position? In the absence of evidence, you should specifically not deviate from the null position...

It's clear you made this move due to performance chasing.

Good news is that it's not too late to repent for your sins :D
I made the move to simplify by having one less fund and there isn't any downside, according to my crystal ball. I will either croak or have severe dementia in 10-15 years, so my time horizon is short.
At least you admit to having a crystal ball. Didn't Jack Bogle say, "No one know nuthin ". Funny how some bogleheads throw even Jack's principles out the window.
VT, BNDW and chill.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jags4186 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:05 pm

lostdog wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:43 pm
At least you admit to having a crystal ball. Didn't Jack Bogle say, "No one know nuthin ". Funny how some bogleheads throw even Jack's principles out the window.
Jack certainly did say “no one knows nothing.” Then he went on to give us his opinion on a variety of investing topics. :happy

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:51 pm

Jags4186 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:05 pm
lostdog wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:43 pm
At least you admit to having a crystal ball. Didn't Jack Bogle say, "No one know nuthin ". Funny how some bogleheads throw even Jack's principles out the window.
Jack certainly did say “no one knows nothing.” Then he went on to give us his opinion on a variety of investing topics. :happy
Indeed.

I don't think that anyone actually believes that phrase "nobody knows nothin'" and with good reason. There's a big difference between not having 100% confidence in something and 'knowing nothing'.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:12 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:51 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:05 pm
lostdog wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:43 pm
At least you admit to having a crystal ball. Didn't Jack Bogle say, "No one know nuthin ". Funny how some bogleheads throw even Jack's principles out the window.
Jack certainly did say “no one knows nothing.” Then he went on to give us his opinion on a variety of investing topics. :happy
Indeed.

I don't think that anyone actually believes that phrase "nobody knows nothin'" and with good reason. There's a big difference between not having 100% confidence in something and 'knowing nothing'.
LOL, well I had no idea my post this morning would send this thread into gyrations.

FWIW: I'm 69, self-employed, still working, will have no retirement income (aside from SS) besides what my portfolio produces. I have plenty to retire on if I chose to do so tomorrow, but I continue to derisk it -- which I have been doing for more than ten years. It is in a treading water mode.

EDIT: As for Bogle's comment, I can only speculate that it was a broad statement, referring to the inability of predicting the future.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nedsaid » Fri Sep 06, 2019 4:30 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:51 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:05 pm
lostdog wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:43 pm
At least you admit to having a crystal ball. Didn't Jack Bogle say, "No one know nuthin ". Funny how some bogleheads throw even Jack's principles out the window.
Jack certainly did say “no one knows nothing.” Then he went on to give us his opinion on a variety of investing topics. :happy
Indeed.

I don't think that anyone actually believes that phrase "nobody knows nothin'" and with good reason. There's a big difference between not having 100% confidence in something and 'knowing nothing'.
A more accurate statement would be to say that none of us knows as much as we think we know.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:44 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:51 pm
Jags4186 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:05 pm
lostdog wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:43 pm
At least you admit to having a crystal ball. Didn't Jack Bogle say, "No one know nuthin ". Funny how some bogleheads throw even Jack's principles out the window.
Jack certainly did say “no one knows nothing.” Then he went on to give us his opinion on a variety of investing topics. :happy
Indeed.

I don't think that anyone actually believes that phrase "nobody knows nothin'" and with good reason. There's a big difference between not having 100% confidence in something and 'knowing nothing'.
I like the phrase "Nobody knows enough".
The J stands for Jay

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nisiprius » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:22 pm

I don't think Bogle said "nobody knows nothing." I think he said that that was the best investing advice he ever received, and that it was given to him by an old timer when he first began working at a brokerage firm.

There's a subtle but important difference between "nobody knows nothing" and "The best piece of advice I ever received was 'nobody knows nothing.'"
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:15 pm

I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying.

In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or whether it is knowable, but the people who trade in it professionally mostly just ignore the truth of it. I don't know enough to figure that out.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm

firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:15 pm
I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying.

In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or whether it is knowable, but the people who trade in it professionally mostly just ignore the truth of it. I don't know enough to figure that out.
There's not much to study. As the old saying goes, economists exist to make astrologers looks respectable.

How can one possibly make accurate economic forecasts, with the infinite variables which will come based on millions of people making millions of self-interested decisions at some point in the future?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:33 pm

Bluce wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
How can one possibly make accurate economic forecasts, with the infinite variables which will come based on millions of people making millions of self-interested decisions at some point in the future?
Sadly, I recently learned that Rick Ferri makes 30 year forecasts of stock returns, bond returns, etc.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silk McCue » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:00 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:33 pm
...
Sadly, I recently learned that Rick Ferri makes 30 year forecasts of stock returns, bond returns, etc.
Care to provide an original and recent source link so that we can judge Rick’s words ourselves and in context. Otherwise this comment is just disparaging.

Cheers

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:12 pm

Silk McCue wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:33 pm
...
Sadly, I recently learned that Rick Ferri makes 30 year forecasts of stock returns, bond returns, etc.
Care to provide an original and recent source link so that we can judge Rick’s words ourselves and in context. Otherwise this comment is just disparaging.

Cheers
A Google search brings it up quickly. But as requested, here it is.
Each year, I put my head on the chopping block and publish a 30-year forecast for global stock and bond market returns. This forecast is used to create long-term asset allocation strategies for our clients.

It's a terribly imprecise exercise because no one can know how financial markets will perform in the future. There are just too many variables and too many unknowns. Yet here it is. So why do I risk professional suicide each year with an expected return forecast that's bound to be wrong? I do it because it's necessary.
https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... nopaging=1

It was also discussed here in this thread.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silk McCue » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:22 pm

^^

Given the context of why he does it, why does it make you sad. Are you disappointed in him. Is he harming someone? Is he harming you? I don’t get your concern. Can you elaborate?

Cheers

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:47 pm

You can find Rick Ferri's 30-year returns, along with 10-year returns by several experts, in the wiki. See: Historical and expected returns

Please note the date those forecasts were created.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fortfun » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:58 pm

Bluce wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:15 pm
I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying.

In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or whether it is knowable, but the people who trade in it professionally mostly just ignore the truth of it. I don't know enough to figure that out.
There's not much to study. As the old saying goes, economists exist to make astrologers looks respectable.

How can one possibly make accurate economic forecasts, with the infinite variables which will come based on millions of people making millions of self-interested decisions at some point in the future?
I listened to an interesting NPR story, this week, on how economists have basically prevented inflation, in this country, in recent history. It is an interesting listen. I don't think they know much about stocks though...
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/06/75819939 ... mists-hour

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Day9 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:20 pm

Long term forecasts are just the mean of a wide distribution of potential returns. One should consider his need, ability, and willingness to take risk. I do not know how judge your need to take risk without an estimate of long term future returns. Similarly to how you can't judge ability or willingness to take risk without an idea of reasonable max drawdown of a given stock/bond allocation.
I'm just a fan of the person I got my user name from

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:25 pm

ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:42 pm
Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this.

Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've thought about doing this for a long time, but only the rear view mirror will tell me if it was the right choice or not.
If only the partisans would admit that there is no compelling evidence for either position (all U.S. versus a world market weight), and learn the differences between opinion, prediction, hypothesis, fact and evidence.
It depends if you think you have an edge or not.

I believe I have zero edge so I prefer to go with the all world with no country/sector tilt.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:25 pm

minimalistmarc wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:25 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:42 pm
Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this.

Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've thought about doing this for a long time, but only the rear view mirror will tell me if it was the right choice or not.
If only the partisans would admit that there is no compelling evidence for either position (all U.S. versus a world market weight), and learn the differences between opinion, prediction, hypothesis, fact and evidence.
It depends if you think you have an edge or not.

I believe I have zero edge so I prefer to go with the all world with no country/sector tilt.
I don't think that Bogle thought that he had an edge, but he certainly favored U.S.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:25 pm

LadyGeek wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:47 pm
You can find Rick Ferri's 30-year returns, along with 10-year returns by several experts, in the wiki. See: Historical and expected returns

Please note the date those forecasts were created.
Wish we had been storing predictions from farther back. If Rick feels it's necessary to do a 30-year prediction every year, let's see some of the ones from 20-30 years ago.

I did find one from 2010.

https://www.mymoneyblog.com/portfolio-s ... ecast.html

Pretty similar to 2015.

Large cap stocks - 5% real in 2010, and 5% real in 2015
Small cap stocks - 6% real in 2010, and 5.3% real in 2015
Small value stocks - no prediction in 2010, 5.8% real in 2015

Intermediate treasury notes 1.5% real in 2010 - 1.9% real in 2015

I find it easier to treat accumulation like retirement. Just like we assume low returns (compared to historical returns) in retirement to be safe, assume low returns (compared to historical returns) in accumulation to be safe. Save like we're going to see low returns going forward. And then you'll likely be pleasantly surprised, and if returns are indeed low, you're already prepared.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Portfolio7 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:36 pm

fortfun wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:58 pm
Bluce wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:15 pm
I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying.

In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or whether it is knowable, but the people who trade in it professionally mostly just ignore the truth of it. I don't know enough to figure that out.
There's not much to study. As the old saying goes, economists exist to make astrologers looks respectable.

How can one possibly make accurate economic forecasts, with the infinite variables which will come based on millions of people making millions of self-interested decisions at some point in the future?
I listened to an interesting NPR story, this week, on how economists have basically prevented inflation, in this country, in recent history. It is an interesting listen. I don't think they know much about stocks though...
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/06/75819939 ... mists-hour
As I recall, and it's my fault if related less than perfectly, Laura D'Andrea Tyson once compared running the US economy to tinkering with your car when your only tool is a screwdriver, and you don't really understand how or why the engine components work together. Economics is very interesting, but not very susceptible to the scientific method, so a lot of it ends up boiling down to educated guesses.

I think a decades-long deflationary tail-wind didn't hurt their ability to keep inflation low in the US :>)
Not to say that's the only reason for it, but we tend to ascribe results to people in nominal positions of authority, when in fact they often have a moderate impact at best on the outcome. Like the phrase, "I'd rather be lucky than good".
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fortfun » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:40 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:36 pm
fortfun wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:58 pm
Bluce wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:15 pm
I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying.

In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or whether it is knowable, but the people who trade in it professionally mostly just ignore the truth of it. I don't know enough to figure that out.
There's not much to study. As the old saying goes, economists exist to make astrologers looks respectable.

How can one possibly make accurate economic forecasts, with the infinite variables which will come based on millions of people making millions of self-interested decisions at some point in the future?
I listened to an interesting NPR story, this week, on how economists have basically prevented inflation, in this country, in recent history. It is an interesting listen. I don't think they know much about stocks though...
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/06/75819939 ... mists-hour
As I recall, and it's my fault if related less than perfectly, Laura D'Andrea Tyson once compared running the US economy to tinkering with your car when your only tool is a screwdriver, and you don't really understand how or why the engine components work together. Economics is very interesting, but not very susceptible to the scientific method, so a lot of it ends up boiling down to educated guesses.

I think a decades-long deflationary tail-wind didn't hurt their ability to keep inflation low in the US :>)
Not to say that's the only reason for it, but we tend to ascribe results to people in nominal positions of authority, when in fact they often have a moderate impact at best on the outcome. Like the phrase, "I'd rather be lucky than good".
Did you listen to the story? You may be correct but the story is compelling (and enjoyable).

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:18 pm

Wonder if we will see the lows of 2018 Dec? I hope over the next 6-8 months.

It is pretty pointless talking about what might happen. But as Mr Bernstein says, if you are in your saving phase you get down on your knees and pray for a long bear market. 🐻

With this topic over 240 pages long, this might end up being the longest thread ever. GLTA.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sambb » Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:47 pm

Will the saudi oil attack cause more freefall monday

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:52 pm

sambb wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:47 pm
Will the saudi oil attack cause more freefall monday
I predict a bond rebound. So it's safe to bet the opposite.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:06 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:52 pm
sambb wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:47 pm
Will the saudi oil attack cause more freefall monday
I predict a bond rebound. So it's safe to bet the opposite.
Some days I'm half-right, and some days I'm half-wrong.

What should I do Monday morning? :oops:

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:11 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:06 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:52 pm
sambb wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:47 pm
Will the saudi oil attack cause more freefall monday
I predict a bond rebound. So it's safe to bet the opposite.
Some days I'm half-right, and some days I'm half-wrong.

What should I do Monday morning? :oops:
I'm buying one share of EDV. Because that's what I do every Monday until I hit my ratio.

clip651
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clip651 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:06 pm

Some days I'm half-right, and some days I'm half-wrong.

What should I do Monday morning? :oops:
I can't tell if you're serious or not.

But for those who are wondering what to do Monday ... who knows what will actually happen in the various markets on Monday. Regardless, stay the course, assuming you set yourself up with an appropriate course previously. Check your IPS if you need a reminder. And go do whatever you were planning to do Monday (work, relax, run errands, etc). No need to sit around and watch the markets. They'll do what they'll do, whether you watch or not!

best wishes,
cj

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:22 pm

clip651 wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:06 pm

Some days I'm half-right, and some days I'm half-wrong.

What should I do Monday morning? :oops:
I can't tell if you're serious or not.

But for those who are wondering what to do Monday ... who knows what will actually happen in the various markets on Monday. Regardless, stay the course, assuming you set yourself up with an appropriate course previously. Check your IPS if you need a reminder. And go do whatever you were planning to do Monday (work, relax, run errands, etc). No need to sit around and watch the markets. They'll do what they'll do, whether you watch or not!

best wishes,
cj
It was supposed to be tongue-in-cheek. Or maybe a math quiz:

"If I'm half right today, half wrong tomorrow, and those patterns repeat, how often am I right?"

FWIW: I have a set-and-forget portfolio. :shock:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Sun Sep 15, 2019 9:25 am

clip651 wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 8:11 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Sep 14, 2019 7:06 pm

Some days I'm half-right, and some days I'm half-wrong.

What should I do Monday morning? :oops:
I can't tell if you're serious or not.

But for those who are wondering what to do Monday ... who knows what will actually happen in the various markets on Monday. Regardless, stay the course, assuming you set yourself up with an appropriate course previously. Check your IPS if you need a reminder. And go do whatever you were planning to do Monday (work, relax, run errands, etc). No need to sit around and watch the markets. They'll do what they'll do, whether you watch or not!

best wishes,
cj
The weather Monday morning is predicted to be around 70° F, partly sunny, light breeze. I will sit on our deck, drink coffee, read the newspaper and then read a book.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Mon Sep 16, 2019 8:51 am

Stocks down about 1/3% this morning

Not bad considering the tumult over the weekend.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Portfolio7 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 8:37 pm

fortfun wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:40 pm
Portfolio7 wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:36 pm
fortfun wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:58 pm
Bluce wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
firebirdparts wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:15 pm
I'm pretty close to believing nobody knows nothing. The benefits of knowing something are enormous, and we know that people are really trying.

In a way I would like to go back and study economics, but now I don't care enough to actually do it. I am not sure whether economics is totally hopeless, or whether it is knowable, but the people who trade in it professionally mostly just ignore the truth of it. I don't know enough to figure that out.
There's not much to study. As the old saying goes, economists exist to make astrologers looks respectable.

How can one possibly make accurate economic forecasts, with the infinite variables which will come based on millions of people making millions of self-interested decisions at some point in the future?
I listened to an interesting NPR story, this week, on how economists have basically prevented inflation, in this country, in recent history. It is an interesting listen. I don't think they know much about stocks though...
https://www.npr.org/2019/09/06/75819939 ... mists-hour
As I recall, and it's my fault if related less than perfectly, Laura D'Andrea Tyson once compared running the US economy to tinkering with your car when your only tool is a screwdriver, and you don't really understand how or why the engine components work together. Economics is very interesting, but not very susceptible to the scientific method, so a lot of it ends up boiling down to educated guesses.

I think a decades-long deflationary tail-wind didn't hurt their ability to keep inflation low in the US :>)
Not to say that's the only reason for it, but we tend to ascribe results to people in nominal positions of authority, when in fact they often have a moderate impact at best on the outcome. Like the phrase, "I'd rather be lucky than good".
Did you listen to the story? You may be correct but the story is compelling (and enjoyable).
Not yet. You're right, that was a bit of a hot take.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:14 pm

My Vanguard taxable account shows portfolio performance Jan 2018 to date as 1.1%. Where is my 7% return??? LOL!

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:17 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:14 pm
My Vanguard taxable account shows portfolio performance Jan 2018 to date as 1.1%. Where is my 7% return??? LOL!
Have you been adding to it since then?

My Roth is up a lot, but the rest of my accounts are basically even since I lump summed the Roth in January; the rest are weekly contributed.

stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:24 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:17 pm
Have you been adding to it since then?
yeah, I contribute monthly.. my annual contributions to this account amounted to 10% or so of the account value when I started, now around 8%

Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:29 pm

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:24 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:17 pm
Have you been adding to it since then?
yeah, I contribute monthly.. my annual contributions to this account amounted to 10% or so of the account value when I started, now around 8%
My contributions from May til now have only now gotten to even or close to it. Probably yet another reason why DCA loses 2/3 of the time.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:53 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:29 pm
My contributions from May til now have only now gotten to even or close to it. Probably yet another reason why DCA loses 2/3 of the time.
I realized that Vanguard gives the returns only as of August 31, the market is up quite a bit since then so i'm curious to see how we end this month. In addition next week is the Q3 dividends and I have quite a bit of VTIAX (Total International) and VTMSX (Small Caps) in this account. International has a big dividend usually and Small Caps this months are up almost 7%.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:10 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:14 pm
My Vanguard taxable account shows portfolio performance Jan 2018 to date as 1.1%. Where is my 7% return??? LOL!
Hmm. Are you mostly stocks?

My 35/65 PF shows +3.94% TR from January 1, 2018 to yesterday (no Beardstown math).

YTD is +10.27% TR.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:46 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:53 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:29 pm
My contributions from May til now have only now gotten to even or close to it. Probably yet another reason why DCA loses 2/3 of the time.
I realized that Vanguard gives the returns only as of August 31, the market is up quite a bit since then so i'm curious to see how we end this month. In addition next week is the Q3 dividends and I have quite a bit of VTIAX (Total International) and VTMSX (Small Caps) in this account. International has a big dividend usually and Small Caps this months are up almost 7%.
A dividend will not make your account bigger unless you’re already past the ex-div date.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:29 am

stocknoob4111 wrote:
Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:14 pm
My Vanguard taxable account shows portfolio performance Jan 2018 to date as 1.1%. Where is my 7% return??? LOL!
Just think of how upset Dave Ramsey is. He has gotten his 12% returns since 2017.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by davidsorensen32 » Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:54 am

Excellent decision. I sold mine 5+ years ago, after holding for a decade during which time I traveled extensively for business to many of these countries and realized that their economic systems were not built to benefit the investor.

No tilt, no small cap, no REIT, no mid-cap, just VTSAX does the job.
Bluce wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:30 am
I never thought I would do this, but I sold the last of my VXUS yesterday. After holding int'l funds for probably 25 years, I now have no devoted int'l funds and have sided with Jack Bogle on this.

Because we cannot see what the future brings, there is no hard-core evidence for either argument. I've thought about doing this for a long time, but only the rear view mirror will tell me if it was the right choice or not.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:58 pm

davidsorensen32 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:54 am
Excellent decision. I sold mine 5+ years ago, after holding for a decade during which time I traveled extensively for business to many of these countries and realized that their economic systems were not built to benefit the investor.

No tilt, no small cap, no REIT, no mid-cap, just VTSAX does the job.
Heh, well that was the main driving force in my thinking, but I didn't want to get political here. But we have a hundred years of history showing that free markets work much better than "government-controlled" markets.

And I didn't see it getting any better within my lifetime.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:05 pm

Bluce wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:58 pm
davidsorensen32 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:54 am
Excellent decision. I sold mine 5+ years ago, after holding for a decade during which time I traveled extensively for business to many of these countries and realized that their economic systems were not built to benefit the investor.

No tilt, no small cap, no REIT, no mid-cap, just VTSAX does the job.
Heh, well that was the main driving force in my thinking, but I didn't want to get political here. But we have a hundred years of history showing that free markets work much better than "government-controlled" markets.

And I didn't see it getting any better within my lifetime.
And why wouldn't those hundreds of years of history with free markets working better than gov-controlled ones be priced in to the assets already?

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bligh
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bligh » Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:15 pm

Bluce wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:58 pm
davidsorensen32 wrote:
Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:54 am
Excellent decision. I sold mine 5+ years ago, after holding for a decade during which time I traveled extensively for business to many of these countries and realized that their economic systems were not built to benefit the investor.

No tilt, no small cap, no REIT, no mid-cap, just VTSAX does the job.
Heh, well that was the main driving force in my thinking, but I didn't want to get political here. But we have a hundred years of history showing that free markets work much better than "government-controlled" markets.

And I didn't see it getting any better within my lifetime.
You could use the same line of thinking to narrow down your holdings between the states out of which corporations are head quartered. You could buy companies only on the coasts, or only those based out of Texas. Find the state that is most "investor friendly" and by the stocks of companies that are run out of there.

The way I see it, the "own the haystack" argument makes the Total World Market the winner, but the "historical returns" argument makes the 100% US one of the winners (I may be mistaken, but doesn't Australia beat US for historical returns?).

Then again, this 100% US vs Total world Market cap is a never ending debate. Let's go back to talking about the US Stocks in free fall!

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