Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 595
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Portfolio7 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:55 pm

hdas wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:48 am
Massive good day for SCV in absolute and relative terms. Momentum and Low Vol getting whacked. Cheers :greedy
SCV has shown a few signs of strength during the year, but over the past week or so SCV performance is looking strong every day. Note that vs 1 year ago, I think most SCG funds are still in better position than SCV funds (down less from their peaks).

I'm considering resetting my SC allocation to my default as part of my monthly checkup. My default is 8% Small Cap Blend. I've had 4% SC blend and 4% SCG for the past couple years.

I'm not planning on changing my total SC allocation... but I'm becoming more nuetral between value & growth.
Last edited by Portfolio7 on Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

KyleAAA
Posts: 7368
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by KyleAAA » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:57 pm

Are us tilters rich yet? A good 10 years of out-performance would be great.

Day9
Posts: 795
Joined: Mon Jun 11, 2012 6:22 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Day9 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:58 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:57 pm
Are us tilters rich yet? A good 10 years of out-performance would be great.
Outperformance may come on the way down, if SV goes down less than Large Growth, so in that case we would not be rich, just less poor :D
I'm just a fan of the person I got my user name from

MotoTrojan
Posts: 5835
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:10 pm

Day9 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:58 pm
KyleAAA wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:57 pm
Are us tilters rich yet? A good 10 years of out-performance would be great.
Outperformance may come on the way down, if SV goes down less than Large Growth, so in that case we would not be rich, just less poor :D
Rebalance into large growth, then get rich!

asif408
Posts: 1765
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:34 am
Location: Florida

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by asif408 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:14 pm

Heck, even GMO, which seems to have a reputation for being bearing on US stocks, is downright bullish (by GMO standards) on US SCV, they expect it to return more than everything but international value and EM (see page 9): https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articl ... r_2q19.pdf

livesoft
Posts: 67770
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by livesoft » Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:34 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:10 pm
Rebalance into large growth, then get rich!
I got my limit orders in for today, so let's see what happens. I don't think the 4% gap in day-to-day change between IJS and MTUM happens very often for whatever reasons. :twisted: (Please don't tell me one of them went ex-dividend today.)
Last edited by livesoft on Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 28583
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:35 pm

asif408 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:14 pm
Heck, even GMO, which seems to have a reputation for being bearing on US stocks, is downright bullish (by GMO standards) on US SCV, they expect it to return more than everything but international value and EM (see page 9): https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articl ... r_2q19.pdf
asif408:

I didn't have time to read GMO's earlier forecasts, but I doubt if their market forecasts are better than anyone else.

I remember when Vanguard had an asset-allocation (market-timing) fund and included it in their Target and LifeCycle funds. The fund was a disaster and quietly closed.

Forget market forecasts. All you need to do is look at Small-Cap Value funds which were forecast to beat almost everything. Right now, they are at the bottom of all Morningstar style categories.

Read what experts say about market-timing:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_ ... ing_quotes

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

H-Town
Posts: 1960
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by H-Town » Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:47 pm

As of 3:45 ET,

VTI: -0.01%
VTV: 0.73%
VOE: 0.88%
VBR: 1.46%

Tide is changing? :mrgreen: :beer :moneybag

deltaneutral83
Posts: 1235
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:25 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by deltaneutral83 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:52 pm

People are really all over this 2.75 year route on SCV. There have been plenty of 5+ year periods of under performance. I haven't seen one piece of new information that should swing either party to the other side. Quoting a 3-5 year time frame when it's up and then the other side howling at the moon over the latest isn't really anything new in the world of SCV or really the entire market is it? Stick to TSM or stick to your SCV tilt, nothing changes.

livesoft
Posts: 67770
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by livesoft » Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:07 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:52 pm
People are really all over this 2.75 year route on SCV. There have been plenty of 5+ year periods of under performance. I haven't seen one piece of new information that should swing either party to the other side. Quoting a 3-5 year time frame when it's up and then the other side howling at the moon over the latest isn't really anything new in the world of SCV or really the entire market is it? Stick to TSM or stick to your SCV tilt, nothing changes.
It is true there is nothing new:
1. 3-fund people will stick to 3 funds.
2. SCV tilters will stick to SCV tilting.
3. Stay-the-course people will pop in and respond "Stay the course! Nothing changes!"
4. Market timers will market time.
5. Every one of them makes money! Woo-hoo!
6. Only one of them will have any fun.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

User avatar
ThereAreNoGurus
Posts: 295
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:27 pm

asif408 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:14 pm
Heck, even GMO, which seems to have a reputation for being bearing on US stocks, is downright bullish (by GMO standards) on US SCV, they expect it to return more than everything but international value and EM (see page 9): https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articl ... r_2q19.pdf
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:35 pm
I didn't have time to read GMO's earlier forecasts, but I doubt if their market forecasts are better than anyone else.

I remember when Vanguard had an asset-allocation (market-timing) fund and included it in their Target and LifeCycle funds. The fund was a disaster and quietly closed.
I located GMO's December 31, 2010, 7 year forecast at: https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/up ... 2/GMO1.pdf

I only looked into their prediction for large cap equities which was 0.4 real per year with a range of plus/minus 6.5%. However V00 returned 11.26 nominal. Inflation was probably under 2% per year over that period, but even applying GMO's assumption of 2.5% per year that knocks VOO's performance down to approx 9% real, which is still above the range predicted by GMO.

Semi-interestingly I don't see a range listed in this year's forecast.
Trade the news and you will lose.

H-Town
Posts: 1960
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by H-Town » Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:18 pm

livesoft wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:07 pm
deltaneutral83 wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:52 pm
People are really all over this 2.75 year route on SCV. There have been plenty of 5+ year periods of under performance. I haven't seen one piece of new information that should swing either party to the other side. Quoting a 3-5 year time frame when it's up and then the other side howling at the moon over the latest isn't really anything new in the world of SCV or really the entire market is it? Stick to TSM or stick to your SCV tilt, nothing changes.
It is true there is nothing new:
1. 3-fund people will stick to 3 funds.
2. SCV tilters will stick to SCV tilting.
3. Stay-the-course people will pop in and respond "Stay the course! Nothing changes!"
4. Market timers will market time.
5. Every one of them makes money! Woo-hoo!
6. Only one of them will have any fun.
People are either happy or unhappy. They can have fun or choose not having fun at all.

In my life time, I've met a person who doesn't have two dimes to rub together, yet he is as happy as the next guy. I also know someone who built a 10M wealth and yet unhappy every single day.

All I have to say is grab a beer and find your beach.

User avatar
Forester
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Forester » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:23 am

Yesterday was the biggest 1-day momentum shift since 2009. The best stocks yesterday were the worst stocks YTD.

-@sentimenttrader, Twitter

Value ETFs versus QQQ since late August https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf ... q,qval,zig

asif408
Posts: 1765
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:34 am
Location: Florida

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by asif408 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:32 am

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:27 pm
I located GMO's December 31, 2010, 7 year forecast at: https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/up ... 2/GMO1.pdf

I only looked into their prediction for large cap equities which was 0.4 real per year with a range of plus/minus 6.5%. However V00 returned 11.26 nominal. Inflation was probably under 2% per year over that period, but even applying GMO's assumption of 2.5% per year that knocks VOO's performance down to approx 9% real, which is still above the range predicted by GMO.

Semi-interestingly I don't see a range listed in this year's forecast.
You should check some of the others out, instead of focusing on the one that was the most off:

Int'l equities: 4.5% real (GMO estimate: 2.1%)
EM equities: 0.2% real (GMO estimate: 4.1%)
US gov't bonds: 0.8% real (GMO estimate: 0.5%)

These are within the confidence intervals. The US returns for both large and small did fall outside the confidence interval. GMO's estimates assume full mean reversion. The change in valuations between 2011 and 2017 explain a majority of the differences. US stocks got significantly more expensive and didn't mean revert, EM stocks got much cheaper and didn't mean revert, either, and international equities got slightly more expensive.

Anyone with an elementary understanding of statistics realizes outliers always exist, so I won't poo-poo a forecast like you and Taylor do just because it's not completely right every time. Some forecast is better than none, even Saint Jack made forecasts for stock and bond market returns. And let's not forget that Saint Jack was wrong with his prediction in 2010 for the next decade as well: https://money.cnn.com/2010/12/31/pf/inv ... /index.htm. He estimated 7% for US stocks, they've delivered over 13% up to today. Doesn't mean his forecasts were not useful, it just means he was wrong and didn't correctly predict the change in valuation, which is the hardest part of predicting stock market returns.

User avatar
ThereAreNoGurus
Posts: 295
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:01 am

asif408 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:32 am


Anyone with an elementary understanding of statistics realizes outliers always exist, so I won't poo-poo a forecast like you and Taylor do just because it's not completely right every time. Some forecast is better than none, even Saint Jack made forecasts for stock and bond market returns. And let's not forget that Saint Jack was wrong with his prediction in 2010 for the next decade as well: https://money.cnn.com/2010/12/31/pf/inv ... /index.htm. He estimated 7% for US stocks, they've delivered over 13% up to today. Doesn't mean his forecasts were not useful, it just means he was wrong and didn't correctly predict the change in valuation, which is the hardest part of predicting stock market returns.
There are 2 reasons I only examined the large-cap forecast. It was the first one listed, and more importantly the bulk of my investments are in the S&P 500.

You claim some forecast is better than none. In my case, I disagree. I read them mainly for entertainment purposes. I am, for the most part, a buy and hold investor for whom these forecasts are not actionable, especially because they aren't reliable for me, regardless of whether these forecasts come within, in some cases, very wide variances.

Your quoting some of Bogle's missed forecasts only reinforces my point.

Of course, forecasting is useful in other contexts for other people and businesses.

The purpose of my original post was more a point of caution rather than your strawman argument (or mistaken impression) that I am against forecasting because it is not right every time.
Trade the news and you will lose.

User avatar
Topic Author
hdas
Posts: 1100
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:24 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by hdas » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:36 am

Forester wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:23 am
Yesterday was the biggest 1-day momentum shift since 2009. The best stocks yesterday were the worst stocks YTD.

-@sentimenttrader, Twitter

Value ETFs versus QQQ since late August https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf ... q,qval,zig
The migration continues today :shock:
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

asif408
Posts: 1765
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:34 am
Location: Florida

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by asif408 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:39 am

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:01 am


There are 2 reasons I only examined the large-cap forecast. It was the first one listed, and more importantly the bulk of my investments are in the S&P 500.

You claim some forecast is better than none. In my case, I disagree. I read them mainly for entertainment purposes. I am, for the most part, a buy and hold investor for whom these forecasts are not actionable, especially because they aren't reliable for me, regardless of whether these forecasts come within, in some cases, very wide variances.
In your case, I would agree, it is pointless to have an estimate when most of your money is in one asset class and you invest without consideration of the price you pay for an asset. Because no matter what happens, even if US stocks return 1% in the next decade or two and foreign large cap stocks return 8% and emerging markets return 15%, you will never change your allocation or chase performance.

I own more than just US stocks, and don't make changes often, but find it useful to know the price I am paying for an asset, because I am willing to change if the difference in the price I pay for one asset is much higher than another. So having some sense of future returns of markets throughout the world is useful, though many times may not be actionable. I wouldn't make a change based on one forecast but I'm glad forecasts like GMO's exist so I can use it to consider if changes are needed occasionally.

User avatar
ThereAreNoGurus
Posts: 295
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 11:41 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by ThereAreNoGurus » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:04 am

asif408 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:39 am
ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:01 am


There are 2 reasons I only examined the large-cap forecast. It was the first one listed, and more importantly the bulk of my investments are in the S&P 500.

You claim some forecast is better than none. In my case, I disagree. I read them mainly for entertainment purposes. I am, for the most part, a buy and hold investor for whom these forecasts are not actionable, especially because they aren't reliable for me, regardless of whether these forecasts come within, in some cases, very wide variances.
In your case, I would agree, it is pointless to have an estimate when most of your money is in one asset class and you invest without consideration of the price you pay for an asset. Because no matter what happens, even if US stocks return 1% in the next decade or two and foreign large cap stocks return 8% and emerging markets return 15%, you will never change your allocation or chase performance.

I own more than just US stocks, and don't make changes often, but find it useful to know the price I am paying for an asset, because I am willing to change if the difference in the price I pay for one asset is much higher than another. So having some sense of future returns of markets throughout the world is useful, though many times may not be actionable. I wouldn't make a change based on one forecast but I'm glad forecasts like GMO's exist so I can use it to consider if changes are needed occasionally.
Thx for the response. No argument with what you say here.

To clarify, I did say "for the most part," which means I do have investments outside the US and I do look at valuations and may make changes based on tempting valuations, but I still read most forecasts for amusement. :D
Trade the news and you will lose.

User avatar
Topic Author
hdas
Posts: 1100
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:24 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by hdas » Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:14 am

livesoft wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:34 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:10 pm
Rebalance into large growth, then get rich!
I got my limit orders in for today, so let's see what happens. I don't think the 4% gap in day-to-day change between IJS and MTUM happens very often for whatever reasons. :twisted: (Please don't tell me one of them went ex-dividend today.)
One day too early :twisted: :wink:
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

livesoft
Posts: 67770
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by livesoft » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:08 pm

hdas wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:14 am
livesoft wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:34 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:10 pm
Rebalance into large growth, then get rich!
I got my limit orders in for today, so let's see what happens. I don't think the 4% gap in day-to-day change between IJS and MTUM happens very often for whatever reasons. :twisted: (Please don't tell me one of them went ex-dividend today.)
One day too early :twisted: :wink:
My limit orders did not execute yesterday and expired. I have not submitted any orders today so far.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.

asif408
Posts: 1765
Joined: Sun Mar 02, 2014 8:34 am
Location: Florida

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by asif408 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:10 pm

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:04 am
Thx for the response. No argument with what you say here.

To clarify, I did say "for the most part," which means I do have investments outside the US and I do look at valuations and may make changes based on tempting valuations, but I still read most forecasts for amusement. :D
Nice to know. :D

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 15069
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by abuss368 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:28 pm

H-Town wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:47 pm
As of 3:45 ET,

VTI: -0.01%
VTV: 0.73%
VOE: 0.88%
VBR: 1.46%

Tide is changing? :mrgreen: :beer :moneybag
This forum teachers ordinary investors to invest for the long term and tune out market noise. Providing an ETF quote is nearly meaningless.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!"

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 15069
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by abuss368 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:28 pm

H-Town wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:47 pm
As of 3:45 ET,

VTI: -0.01%
VTV: 0.73%
VOE: 0.88%
VBR: 1.46%

Tide is changing? :mrgreen: :beer :moneybag
This forum teachers ordinary investors to invest for the long term and tune out market noise. Providing an ETF quote is nearly meaningless.
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!"

H-Town
Posts: 1960
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 2:08 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by H-Town » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:17 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:28 pm
H-Town wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:47 pm
As of 3:45 ET,

VTI: -0.01%
VTV: 0.73%
VOE: 0.88%
VBR: 1.46%

Tide is changing? :mrgreen: :beer :moneybag
This forum teachers ordinary investors to invest for the long term and tune out market noise. Providing an ETF quote is nearly meaningless.
It's meaningless to people who think it's meaningless.

-----------------------------------------------
Update:
9/10 at closing:
VTI 0.09%
VTV 0.54%
VOE 0.63%
VBR 1.14%

Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!! as the title of this thread.

KyleAAA
Posts: 7368
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by KyleAAA » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm

H-Town wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:17 pm
abuss368 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:28 pm
H-Town wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:47 pm
As of 3:45 ET,

VTI: -0.01%
VTV: 0.73%
VOE: 0.88%
VBR: 1.46%

Tide is changing? :mrgreen: :beer :moneybag
This forum teachers ordinary investors to invest for the long term and tune out market noise. Providing an ETF quote is nearly meaningless.
It's meaningless to people who think it's meaningless.

-----------------------------------------------
Update:
9/10 at closing:
VTI 0.09%
VTV 0.54%
VOE 0.63%
VBR 1.14%

Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!! as the title of this thread.
Glad I hold IJS/VIOV instead of VBR. I'm up 1.73%. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go research which Maserati I want to buy.

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 6105
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by whodidntante » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:04 pm

KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go research which Maserati I want to buy.
You could ask the forum. One actual Maserati owner will post a thoughtful and informative reply which will hard to see among the posts recommending Toyotas and Teslas.

User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 595
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Portfolio7 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:45 pm

hdas wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:52 pm
Today is day one, of the resurrection **. Make sure to be fully loaded :twisted:

** The ratio of SCV/Large Growth had a large reversal today

Update June 4: Just a better chart (data from Tiingo) for ppl to appreciate the opportunity set.
VBR up almost 5% these past 5 trading days. That happened strong and fast. Congrats value fans.
An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.

rascott
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by rascott » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:23 pm

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:28 pm
H-Town wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 2:47 pm
As of 3:45 ET,

VTI: -0.01%
VTV: 0.73%
VOE: 0.88%
VBR: 1.46%

Tide is changing? :mrgreen: :beer :moneybag
This forum teachers ordinary investors to invest for the long term and tune out market noise. Providing an ETF quote is nearly meaningless.

Agreed... too bad one of the leaders of this forum takes every chance they can to denigrate those that tilt to SCV by always pointing out their weak returns over the last 12 months.

rascott
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by rascott » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:26 pm

There is certainly a market rotation occurring this week, something we hadn't seen in a good while. Will see if it continues. Happy to have a large stake in an equity asset class not perfectly correlated with large cap blend (VTI).

stocknoob4111
Posts: 726
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by stocknoob4111 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:13 pm

This may be the shift where Small Caps catch up...

https://youtu.be/nFI4Ms3ZLCU

schismal
Posts: 116
Joined: Sat Apr 13, 2019 8:53 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by schismal » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:50 am

The historical data said that momentum and small value are negatively correlated. As a holder of both MTUM and VIOV, I'm seeing that on full display this week.

deltaneutral83
Posts: 1235
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:25 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by deltaneutral83 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:58 am

KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
Glad I hold IJS/VIOV instead of VBR. I'm up 1.73%. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go research which Maserati I want to buy.
With the corresponding ER's of 15/20/25 bps on SLYV/VIOV/IJS, I'm curious if more tilters don't choose SLYV at least in a non taxable event? VIOV has wider spreads in my experience?? And with IJS being 10 bps higher than SLYV, I can't justify that although it is the largest AUM.

User avatar
Forester
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Forester » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:12 am

Not sure what to make of this - which fund will likely to better over the next decade, small cap value or a cheaper large cap value?

iShares VLUE
PB 1.4
PE 10.0
CF 3.8

iShares IJS
PB 1.3
PE 13.7
CF 5.2

WisdomTree DES
PB 1.5
PE 14.2
CF 5.7

caklim00
Posts: 1839
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 10:09 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by caklim00 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:32 am

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:58 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
Glad I hold IJS/VIOV instead of VBR. I'm up 1.73%. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go research which Maserati I want to buy.
With the corresponding ER's of 15/20/25 bps on SLYV/VIOV/IJS, I'm curious if more tilters don't choose SLYV at least in a non taxable event? VIOV has wider spreads in my experience?? And with IJS being 10 bps higher than SLYV, I can't justify that although it is the largest AUM.
My IRAs are just SLYV and ISCF besides my small stake in the hedgefundie excellent adventure.

I hold some VIOV (and previously IJS) in taxable but now I put most taxable contributions to VFMF instead since it appears to be more tax efficient.

YRT70
Posts: 317
Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:51 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by YRT70 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:37 am

Forester wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:12 am
Not sure what to make of this - which fund will likely to better over the next decade, small cap value or a cheaper large cap value?

iShares VLUE
PB 1.4
PE 10.0
CF 3.8

iShares IJS
PB 1.3
PE 13.7
CF 5.2

WisdomTree DES
PB 1.5
PE 14.2
CF 5.7
From what I've read the premium is larger in smaller value stocks, so I'd go with IJS. It's a lot smaller than VLUE and has deeper value exposure than DES.

User avatar
Forester
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:50 pm
Location: UK

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Forester » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:19 am

This is crazy - iShares has 8 large cap US value ETFs!

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 6105
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by whodidntante » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:42 am

Forester wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:19 am
This is crazy - iShares has 8 large cap US value ETFs!
Yes, but the correct one to use is obvious. :happy

User avatar
1789
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:31 pm
Location: OR

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by 1789 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:15 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:58 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
Glad I hold IJS/VIOV instead of VBR. I'm up 1.73%. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go research which Maserati I want to buy.
With the corresponding ER's of 15/20/25 bps on SLYV/VIOV/IJS, I'm curious if more tilters don't choose SLYV at least in a non taxable event? VIOV has wider spreads in my experience?? And with IJS being 10 bps higher than SLYV, I can't justify that although it is the largest AUM.
SLYV is great. I have that one.

Also,what do you guys think of holding DFSVX in 401k? It has ER 0.52. I don't hold it currently as i don't want to pay for this high ER

Anyone has DFSVX and happy with it?

User avatar
midareff
Posts: 6307
Joined: Mon Nov 29, 2010 10:43 am
Location: Biscayne Bay, South Florida

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by midareff » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:17 pm

Sandtrap wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:21 pm
FYI:

Vanguard Small Cap Value Index (dark blue)

Compared to S&P 500 (VTSAX Total Stock Tracks This) (green)

Compared to Small Value (orange)

Image
You could add Total International.... that would make small value look wonderful.

KyleAAA
Posts: 7368
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by KyleAAA » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:44 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:58 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
Glad I hold IJS/VIOV instead of VBR. I'm up 1.73%. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go research which Maserati I want to buy.
With the corresponding ER's of 15/20/25 bps on SLYV/VIOV/IJS, I'm curious if more tilters don't choose SLYV at least in a non taxable event? VIOV has wider spreads in my experience?? And with IJS being 10 bps higher than SLYV, I can't justify that although it is the largest AUM.
IJS is free at Fidelity and VIOV at Vanguard (although I guess everything is free at Vanguard now). With new money I might buy SLYV.

rascott
Posts: 692
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2015 10:53 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by rascott » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:50 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:58 am
KyleAAA wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:55 pm
Glad I hold IJS/VIOV instead of VBR. I'm up 1.73%. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go research which Maserati I want to buy.
With the corresponding ER's of 15/20/25 bps on SLYV/VIOV/IJS, I'm curious if more tilters don't choose SLYV at least in a non taxable event? VIOV has wider spreads in my experience?? And with IJS being 10 bps higher than SLYV, I can't justify that although it is the largest AUM.

Yep, SLYV in IRAs....IJS in taxable. I've gotten rid of IJS in taxable and upped my position in SLYV in tax advantaged.

User avatar
Topic Author
hdas
Posts: 1100
Joined: Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:24 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by hdas » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:53 pm

Portfolio7 wrote:
Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:45 pm
hdas wrote:
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:52 pm
Today is day one, of the resurrection **. Make sure to be fully loaded :twisted:

** The ratio of SCV/Large Growth had a large reversal today

Update June 4: Just a better chart (data from Tiingo) for ppl to appreciate the opportunity set.
VBR up almost 5% these past 5 trading days. That happened strong and fast. Congrats value fans.
A lot more to go in this train, perhaps not this week, but in general. Cheers :greedy
"whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires more thought" ET Jaynes

YRT70
Posts: 317
Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:51 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by YRT70 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:02 pm

1789 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:15 pm
SLYV is great. I have that one.

Also,what do you guys think of holding DFSVX in 401k? It has ER 0.52. I don't hold it currently as i don't want to pay for this high ER

Anyone has DFSVX and happy with it?
DFSVX has deeper value exposure than SLYV and it's got some other features. If value outperforms in the future I would expect it would easily make up for the higher expense rate.

User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 6105
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by whodidntante » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:03 pm

1789 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:15 pm
Anyone has DFSVX and happy with it?
That is the canonical DFA SV fund. I own a heathen DFA SV fund, DFFVX. It has a larger average market cap and a smaller ER (0.37%). The value exposure is excellent. DFSVX has good small exposure and good value exposure. Probably worth the ER.

If you want to be analytical today, run a factor regression at portfolio visualizer for that and the cheaper funds you could buy instead. Then compute cost for factor exposure. Do post the results here.

YRT70
Posts: 317
Joined: Sat Apr 27, 2019 8:51 am

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by YRT70 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:32 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:03 pm
1789 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:15 pm
Anyone has DFSVX and happy with it?
That is the canonical DFA SV fund. I own a heathen DFA SV fund, DFFVX. It has a larger average market cap and a smaller ER (0.37%). The value exposure is excellent. DFSVX has good small exposure and good value exposure. Probably worth the ER.

If you want to be analytical today, run a factor regression at portfolio visualizer for that and the cheaper funds you could buy instead. Then compute cost for factor exposure. Do post the results here.
If I remember correctly Larry told me that PV factor regression only uses book to market, and in that way it's quite limited to compute value exposure.

Does that sound about right? You probably know more about this than me.

Glockenspiel
Posts: 909
Joined: Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:20 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Glockenspiel » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:59 pm

Since Friday, IJS (iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF) is up 6.2%. VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) is only up 0.15%. Amazing.

Random Walker
Posts: 4106
Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 8:21 pm

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Post by Random Walker » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:42 pm

whodidntante wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:03 pm
1789 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:15 pm
Anyone has DFSVX and happy with it?
That is the canonical DFA SV fund. I own a heathen DFA SV fund, DFFVX. It has a larger average market cap and a smaller ER (0.37%). The value exposure is excellent. DFSVX has good small exposure and good value exposure. Probably worth the ER.

If you want to be analytical today, run a factor regression at portfolio visualizer for that and the cheaper funds you could buy instead. Then compute cost for factor exposure. Do post the results here.
One reason to consider getting a smaller market cap fund is that the other factor premia (e.g value and momentum) tend to be more pronounced in the smaller stocks.

Dave

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 28583
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:52 pm

Glockenspiel wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:59 pm
Since Friday, IJS (iShares S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF) is up 6.2%. VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund) is only up 0.15%. Amazing.
Glockenspiel:

Small Cap Value investors have endured a long and painful period of under-performance. I am happy to see that the tide may be turning.

The lesson is clear: It is dangerous to bet on one corner of the stock market.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Selecting funds that will significantly exceed market returns, a search in which hope springs eternal and in which past performance has proven of virtually no predictive value, is a loser’s game.”
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

deltaneutral83
Posts: 1235
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:25 pm

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

Post by deltaneutral83 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:58 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:52 pm
Small Cap Value investors have endured a long and painful period of under-performance. I am happy to see that the tide may be turning.
It has been 2.75 years, a mere snap of the fingers in investing?
The lesson is clear: It is dangerous to bet on one corner of the stock market.
I am not sure it has ever been dangerous to tilt to SCV in any 20+ year stretch? I certainly agree that most investers don't have the stomach to deal with under performance (look at all the Intl dumping threads) or even DIY investing in general, but being a BH in general probably indicates a high probability to deal with under performance versus the average invester?

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 28583
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

Post by Taylor Larimore » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:48 pm

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:58 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:52 pm
Small Cap Value investors have endured a long and painful period of under-performance. I am happy to see that the tide may be turning.
Deltaneutral83 wrote: It has been 2.75 years, a mere snap of the fingers in investing?
deltaneutral83:

For your information:

http://news.morningstar.com/index/indexReturn.html

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "The beauty of owning the market is that you eliminate individual stock risk, you eliminate market sector risk and you eliminate manager risk. -- In my view, owning the market and holding it forever is the ultimate strategy for winners."
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

Post Reply