madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

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madsinger
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madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Post by madsinger » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:25 pm

Here is a big fat collection of portfolios, with their August 2019 returns, 2019 YTD return, and annualized returns since 1999, 2009, 2014, and 2016 (20 years 8 months, 10 years 8 months, 5 years 8 months, 3 years 8 months). I broke them into four categories, roughly corresponding to 100/0, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60 stock/bond portfolios, sorted by 10 year Total Return. The 3 fund is 50/30/20 Total Stock/Total Int'l/Total Bond. The s&d is 10 each of VFIAX, VVIAX, VSMAX, VSIAX, VGSLX, 25 VTIAX, 5 VINEX, 20 VTABX. The coffeehouse is a 60/40 described at The Coffeehouse Investor. The Newsletter portfolios are from a newsletter following Vanguard funds. William Bernstein's "Sheltered Sam" is an all stock portfolio which is 20% VFIAX, 25% VVIAX, 5% VSMAX, 15% VSIAX, 10% VGSLX, 3% IAU, 5% each VEUSX, VPADX, VEMAX, and 7% VTRIX. The madsinger portfolio is my real-world portfolio, roughly 50/6/11/33 stock/REIT/Gold/bond. The madsingerPP portfolio is the "permanent portfolio" portion of my portfolio consisting of 25% each of stock, long bond, cash, gold.

-Brad.

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                                   CAGR    CAGR    CAGR    CAGR
                   Aug     YTD     since   since   since   since
                   2019    2019    2016    2014    2009    1999
VFINX             -1.58%  18.33%  12.44%  10.56%  13.90%   6.19%
Sheltered Sam     -2.05%  13.84%   9.59%   7.29%  11.58%   7.49%
Hot Hands         -1.70%  22.23%   4.39%   3.69%  10.45%  10.15%
                  
Newsletter G-IND   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%
Newsletter G       x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%
LS G              -1.20%  13.22%   8.77%   6.67%  10.17%   5.50%
3 fund            -1.22%  13.41%   8.81%   6.51%   9.99%   5.99%
s&d               -1.25%  12.60%   7.75%   6.05%   9.89%   7.15%

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Newsletter CG      x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%
Wellington         0.39%  14.59%   9.81%   8.03%  10.63%   7.62%
STAR              -0.56%  13.52%   8.63%   6.81%   9.89%   6.76%
coffeehouse       -0.23%  12.88%   7.45%   6.25%   9.16%   6.95%
LS MG             -0.25%  12.34%   7.79%   6.14%   8.82%   5.45%
                  
Newsletter Inc     x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%   x.xx%
Wellesley          1.68%  12.99%   7.66%   6.58%   8.67%   6.84%
LS CG              0.74%  11.42%   6.74%   5.53%   7.39%   5.14%
                  
madsinger          1.05%  12.61%   7.81%   5.53%   9.32%   
madsinger PP       4.49%  15.28%   8.18%         

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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Post by madsinger » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:31 pm

Late report this month because Vanguard did not update their "cumulative return" through August until this weekend.

August had very wide spread in asset class returns --- possibly the highest in all of my time keeping records. By the end of the month, US Large was only down about -1.5%, but small caps were down -4% to -5%. Internationals were down -2% to -4%. Total Bond market as up +2.8% (a huge jump for bonds). As for the permanent portfolio...the US Long Bonds were up over +11%, just for the month! Gold was up +7.7%. So, the PP was up almost +4.5% for the month, and now over +15% for the YTD.

Also, I caught a lucky break on the month I switched from "cash" to "short bonds" in my PP. Just for the month, short bonds were up over +1%, and basically returned in one month what cash had returned in the previous seven.

Things seem to be moving in the opposite direction for the first part of September.

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         STOCK  LONG BOND  CASH / SB   GOLD   PORTFOLIO 
January  7.97%    0.42%      0.13%     2.85%    2.71%
February 3.21%   -1.21%      0.16%    -0.47%    0.40%
March    1.91%    5.44%      0.14%    -1.59%    1.40%
April    4.02%   -1.89%      0.14%    -0.73%    0.37%
May     -6.36%    6.66%      0.18%     1.79%    0.56%
June     7.00%    1.02%      0.14%     8.15%    4.01%
July     1.40%    0.29%      0.15%     0.15%    0.49%
August  -1.42%   11.30%      1.06%     7.69%    4.55%

YTD     18.42%   22.78%      2.16%    18.29%   15.28%

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madsinger
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Post by madsinger » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:37 pm

I should say that because of the big run up in long bonds, I rebalanced in the middle of the month (sold bonds, bought stock), so my bond return 11.30% (internal rate of return) is higher than the posted mutual fund return 10.68% for the month. The act of rebalancing is pretty much a "buy low/sell high" activity. Also, my "S&P 500" return for the month was -1.42%, compared with the -1.58% for the mutual fund. The "buy" in August 15 was a relative low point.

-Brad.

Jags4186
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Post by Jags4186 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:39 pm

Since it is so popular on the board it would be great if you could add HEDGEFUNDIE's 55/45 UPRO/TMF portfolio to the list.

Your posts are great thanks for everything!

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jjustice
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Post by jjustice » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:53 pm

Wellington continues to be indomitable.

John

heyyou
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Re: madsinger monthly report (August 2019)

Post by heyyou » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:44 pm

"It will fluctuate" has been confirmed.

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