U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
At 8:15 AM, Dow futures UP 181.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I took enough tax loss in December to last many years. I can only use $3,000 a year to reduce income .oldzey wrote: ↑Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:43 pmThat would be a day for TLH.J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Sun Aug 25, 2019 9:35 pmAnything over −20.47% the record set on October 19, 1987. I lived through that one and am doing fine.
True they put in "circuit breakers" to stop the new fangled algorithms in their tracks.whodidntante wrote: ↑Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:07 pm Mankind and womankind have made many advancements since then. Now it takes two days for the stock market to go down that much.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Reminds me of this: https://fourpillarfreedom.com/charlie-m ... is-a-btch/
I finally topped $90k invested on August 1. I've had to do a vast majority of the heavy lifting so far. I was hoping to reach $100k by the end of the year, but I don't know if I'm going to make it. My contributions between now and December 31 are the requisite $10k, but we'll see if the market lets me get over the hump in time.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Another great day to do nothing about investing.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Except peeking at the paper gain I have since my purchase last Friday... A small win during this sideway market.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Does anyone have historical perspective if preceding the past recessions the media talked about it with such confidence?
I know there is always *someone* out there saying the market will crash or soar but it seems every news publication says it will crash in 1-2 years due to inverted yield.
My thought process is if everyone is saying it will crash and takes steps to prepare, then it probably won’t crash (maybe just sideways for a year or so).
Similar to when oil prices crashed in 2014 and everyone was wanting to buy in at the bottom to catch that quick recovery.
I know there is always *someone* out there saying the market will crash or soar but it seems every news publication says it will crash in 1-2 years due to inverted yield.
My thought process is if everyone is saying it will crash and takes steps to prepare, then it probably won’t crash (maybe just sideways for a year or so).
Similar to when oil prices crashed in 2014 and everyone was wanting to buy in at the bottom to catch that quick recovery.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Although I can't find it now, earlier this AM Marketwatch had an article with the title being something about "Market timing experts."
Has anyone here ever met a "market timing expert"?
I'm still looking.
Has anyone here ever met a "market timing expert"?
I'm still looking.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I would say absolutely yes. I offer nothing in the way of evidence.BanquetBeer wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:21 am Does anyone have historical perspective if preceding the past recessions the media talked about it with such confidence?
If a lot of people desire to change their asset allocations it sucks the stock market way down. This doesn't really have any direct effect on the economy, but the indirect effects are very impressive.
This time is the same
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Is everyone convinced there is going to be a recession simply because it’s been a while since the last one? I don’t really understand the fear mongering. Whatever happened to past performance doesn’t dictate future results?
Last I checked, the SP500 returned ~11% real, after inflation, returns from 1976-1999. 24 years. We’ve only been getting ~11% real, after inflation, returns for the last 10 years. It seems to me we have as much chance to continue this bull (with hiccups in between of course) as we are to hit another rut.
The 20 year return of the SP500 is far below average so I fully expect good times to continue for a while.
Last I checked, the SP500 returned ~11% real, after inflation, returns from 1976-1999. 24 years. We’ve only been getting ~11% real, after inflation, returns for the last 10 years. It seems to me we have as much chance to continue this bull (with hiccups in between of course) as we are to hit another rut.
The 20 year return of the SP500 is far below average so I fully expect good times to continue for a while.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Basically yeah.
The fact that the time since the last bear market has had no statistically significant bearing on when the next bear market came about does not seem to matter to many.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I would say absolutely yes. I offer nothing in the way of evidence.
You could imagine a world in which there is no contraction of the economy, but why would you? 95% of the economy is people offering you stuff you don't need. If you believe that it decreased every few years as long as anybody can remember, then it seems like there would be sufficient reason to think it'll happen again. You can't force people to buy more stuff, that's voluntary.
This time is the same
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Under our current economic structure and financial structure at least, it seems that recessions are destined to happen at some point. But that's very different from saying "It's been over a decade since the last recession, so another one must be right around the corner." The data do not support that latter view.firebirdparts wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:52 amYou could imagine a world in which there is no contraction of the economy, but why would you? 95% of the economy is people offering you stuff you don't need. If you believe that it decreased every few years as long as anybody can remember, then it seems like there would be sufficient reason to think it'll happen again. You can't force people to buy more stuff, that's voluntary.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Jags4186 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:30 am Is everyone convinced there is going to be a recession simply because it’s been a while since the last one? I don’t really understand the fear mongering. Whatever happened to past performance doesn’t dictate future results?
Last I checked, the SP500 returned ~11% real, after inflation, returns from 1976-1999. 24 years. We’ve only been getting ~11% real, after inflation, returns for the last 10 years. It seems to me we have as much chance to continue this bull (with hiccups in between of course) as we are to hit another rut.
The 20 year return of the SP500 is far below average so I fully expect good times to continue for a while.
I tend to agree. I think the double whammy of horrid bear markets/recessions that occurred in the prior decade have had lasting consequences mentally/emotionally. The GFC particularly caused a lot of trauma both in markets and in the general economy.
You are correct that the last 20 years have provided below average returns for equity investors. And if the projections of the next decade being poor actually occur....that would make for 30 years (an entire generation) of poor equity returns.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It’s my understanding that the worst 30 year period in US stock market history is the period beginning 1929 ending 1958. That period included the Great Depression and World War II. Equity investors earned 6.58% real.rascott wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:07 amJags4186 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:30 am Is everyone convinced there is going to be a recession simply because it’s been a while since the last one? I don’t really understand the fear mongering. Whatever happened to past performance doesn’t dictate future results?
Last I checked, the SP500 returned ~11% real, after inflation, returns from 1976-1999. 24 years. We’ve only been getting ~11% real, after inflation, returns for the last 10 years. It seems to me we have as much chance to continue this bull (with hiccups in between of course) as we are to hit another rut.
The 20 year return of the SP500 is far below average so I fully expect good times to continue for a while.
I tend to agree. I think the double whammy of horrid bear markets/recessions that occurred in the prior decade have had lasting consequences mentally/emotionally. The GFC particularly caused a lot of trauma both in markets and in the general economy.
You are correct that the last 20 years have provided below average returns for equity investors. And if the projections of the next decade being poor actually occur....that would make for 30 years (an entire generation) of poor equity returns.
From 2000-2018 the SP500 has returned 2.64% real. Are we truly living in the worst era in the history of the United States? Man that’s some bad luck!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This baby is about to melt down
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
.....
Last edited by TaxingAccount on Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The total real return is much higher than that during that period. The price only went up 2.64% real. You got to collect dividends that whole time.
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
He wasn't far off. The real annualized return of VTSMX from 2000-2018 was 2.95%. A decade of negative cumulative returns (i.e. 2000-2009) really hurt.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Pick a market high as a starting point, then you see a low return.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:38 amHe wasn't far off. The real annualized return of VTSMX from 2000-2018 was 2.95%. A decade of negative cumulative returns (i.e. 2000-2009) really hurt.
Pick a market low to start, then you see a higher return.
Big surprise.
Omit dividends and you get a false idea of returns.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Wouldn’t that have also been included in the worst 30 years starting 1929?ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am Pick a market high as a starting point, then you see a low return.
Pick a market low to start, then you see a higher return.
Big surprise.
Omit dividends and you get a false idea of returns.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This would imply that investors will be better off with cash on the sideline and buy in at market bottom. (Not that you would imply such thing).ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 amPick a market high as a starting point, then you see a low return.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:38 amHe wasn't far off. The real annualized return of VTSMX from 2000-2018 was 2.95%. A decade of negative cumulative returns (i.e. 2000-2009) really hurt.
Pick a market low to start, then you see a higher return.
Big surprise.
Omit dividends and you get a false idea of returns.
Omit tax would get the false idea of returns as well.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Funding secured
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The other side of this is what happens when the recession occurs. We could easily have a recession with a drawdown less than December 2018; we could even have one without a bear market. It isn't a golden rule that recession equals 40-60% equity declines.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:50 amBasically yeah.
The fact that the time since the last bear market has had no statistically significant bearing on when the next bear market came about does not seem to matter to many.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My point is that it's more accurate to compare a market low (!Oct. 2002) to a low (April, 2009), or a high to a high.H-Town wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:06 pmThis would imply that investors will be better off with cash on the sideline and buy in at market bottom. (Not that you would imply such thing).ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 amPick a market high as a starting point, then you see a low return.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:38 amHe wasn't far off. The real annualized return of VTSMX from 2000-2018 was 2.95%. A decade of negative cumulative returns (i.e. 2000-2009) really hurt.
Pick a market low to start, then you see a higher return.
Big surprise.
Omit dividends and you get a false idea of returns.
Omit tax would get the false idea of returns as well.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You are correct, I do not advocate holding cash waiting for a srock market low.H-Town wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:06 pmThis would imply that investors will be better off with cash on the sideline and buy in at market bottom. (Not that you would imply such thing).ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 amPick a market high as a starting point, then you see a low return.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:38 amHe wasn't far off. The real annualized return of VTSMX from 2000-2018 was 2.95%. A decade of negative cumulative returns (i.e. 2000-2009) really hurt.
Pick a market low to start, then you see a higher return.
Big surprise.
Omit dividends and you get a false idea of returns.
Omit tax would get the false idea of returns as well.
Comparing a stock market high to a later market low means little.
My point is that it's more accurate and meaningful to compare a market low (Oct. 2002) to a low (April, 2009), or a high (Aug, 2000) to a high (Oct, 2007)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The 10 Year is at 1.47 now, the 30 year has broken the 2 mark!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The 30y hit 1.98% on 8/15/2019.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:32 pm The 10 Year is at 1.47 now, the 30 year has broken the 2 mark!
The 10y hit 1.37% on 7/15/2016 and 1.43% on 7/25/2012.
Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No it wasn't. VFINX, Vanguard 500 fund, total return is 4.75% nominal from 2000-2018. Average inflation for the last 18 years has been ~2%.
You can verify this data here:
http://moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
1) I did not omit dividendsruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 amPick a market high as a starting point, then you see a low return.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:38 amHe wasn't far off. The real annualized return of VTSMX from 2000-2018 was 2.95%. A decade of negative cumulative returns (i.e. 2000-2009) really hurt.
Pick a market low to start, then you see a higher return.
Big surprise.
Omit dividends and you get a false idea of returns.
2) I compared the past 18 years to the worst 30 year period, 1929-1958 which begins just a few months *before* the crash of October 1929.
3) The 2000 SP500 1530 high came in September 2000 - very similar to the 1929 high in October 1929.
My point is that the equity returns for investors over the past 18 years have been absolutely horrible. So horrible, that if we don't continue to have a bull for the next 12 years we are in the midst of the very worst 30 year period in the history of the United States of America. It just doesn't feel that way.
Last edited by Jags4186 on Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
ruralavalon wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 amPick a market high as a starting point, then you see a low return.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:38 amHe wasn't far off. The real annualized return of VTSMX from 2000-2018 was 2.95%. A decade of negative cumulative returns (i.e. 2000-2009) really hurt.
Pick a market low to start, then you see a higher return.
Big surprise.
Omit dividends and you get a false idea of returns.
So go from 1999 to July 2019....it was like 6.5% nominal, from highs to highs, including dividends.... roughly 4.5% real. So unless we return something like 9+% real over the next 10 years....the 30 years from 1999-2029 will be the worst 30 yr period ever in the US market.
Worse than investing your money in 1929 would have been doing so in 1999?
Last edited by rascott on Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
There are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Market timers are what caused the inverted yield curve.
Last edited by J G Bankerton on Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Its easy to be a market timing expert. Just predict a crash every year and you’ll never miss one. That’s what Peter Schiff does.J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 pmThere are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well that's moderately disheartening. I don't want to be in the worst of times.
Consistently sets low goals and fails to achieve them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Luckily I did not have a hypothetical chunk of money to invest as a single lump sum payment at an arbitrary point in time.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But the guy that retired in 1999 did. I hope he's doing ok
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
people do not have the luxury of selecting starting points.. regardless of when you start, given a very long term say 20 years and we stay the course and keep investing we will reap great wealth due to compounding at 7% (most news outlets pedal this), in reality WHEN in the cycle you start could be huge.
Well, I guess 2-3% real is better than zero but for such a paltry return one had to endure 50% drawdowns and several gray hairs.
Well, I guess 2-3% real is better than zero but for such a paltry return one had to endure 50% drawdowns and several gray hairs.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Buy the dips.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm ..one had to endure 50% drawdowns and several gray hairs.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If you "keep investing" over 20 years, you're not stuck with 2%-3% real on all your money.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm people do not have the luxury of selecting starting points.. regardless of when you start, given a very long term say 20 years and we stay the course and keep investing we will reap great wealth due to compounding at 7% (most news outlets pedal this), in reality WHEN in the cycle you start could be huge.
Well, I guess 2-3% real is better than zero but for such a paltry return one had to endure 50% drawdowns and several gray hairs.
The money you invested in 2000 did poorly, the money you invested in 2001 and 2002 and 2003 did much better.
And in the end, yes, so far you reap great wealth, even if a couple of the years over the 20 you invest don't do so well.
Remember, the absolute WORST time to invest in stocks in recent memory was in 2000, and you still got a long-term 2%-3% positive real return out of it. That's pretty good for your WORST year.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's good to look on the sunny side of things, but you need to have the right temperament. Anything you had in stocks at the start of 2000 didn't even match the real return of T-Bills until 2013. A long time to wait for nothing. All the gains from stocks since 2000 have been accounted for during just the last 6+ years -- if you had the temperament to hang in there through two brutal bear markets and pocket lint after 13 years. That's the way of stocks. Lots of pain for an eventual gain. You don't get something for nothing in this world -- even from Mr. Market.HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:42 pmIf you "keep investing" over 20 years, you're not stuck with 2%-3% real on all your money.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:26 pm people do not have the luxury of selecting starting points.. regardless of when you start, given a very long term say 20 years and we stay the course and keep investing we will reap great wealth due to compounding at 7% (most news outlets pedal this), in reality WHEN in the cycle you start could be huge.
Well, I guess 2-3% real is better than zero but for such a paltry return one had to endure 50% drawdowns and several gray hairs.
The money you invested in 2000 did poorly, the money you invested in 2001 and 2002 and 2003 did much better.
And in the end, yes, so far you reap great wealth, even if a couple of the years over the 20 you invest don't do so well.
Remember, the absolute WORST time to invest in stocks in recent memory was in 2000, and you still got a long-term 2%-3% positive real return out of it. That's pretty good for your WORST year.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm too cheap to have cable, so the lure of Investment Porn does not affect me.J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 pmThere are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Market timers are what caused the inverted yield curve.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Priceless.Bluce wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 pmI'm too cheap to have cable, so the lure of Investment Porn does not affect me.J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 pmThere are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Market timers are what caused the inverted yield curve.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
LOL, yes that guy's a real beaut.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:57 pmIts easy to be a market timing expert. Just predict a crash every year and you’ll never miss one. That’s what Peter Schiff does.J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 pmThere are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Thanks to Treasuries and VWIAX, I was only down .03% today.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Thanks to Vanguard Intermediate-term Bond Index Fund (VBILX) and a 50/50 asset allocation we were down just 0.03% yesterday.Bluce wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:30 pmLOL, yes that guy's a real beaut.Jags4186 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:57 pmIts easy to be a market timing expert. Just predict a crash every year and you’ll never miss one. That’s what Peter Schiff does.J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 pmThere are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Thanks to Treasuries and VWIAX, I was only down .03% today.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Check out the Yahoo Financial Show...free Investment PornBluce wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 pmI'm too cheap to have cable, so the lure of Investment Porn does not affect me.J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 pmThere are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Market timers are what caused the inverted yield curve.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I get Cheddar Business "news". It is for millennials, all they talk about is video games and cannibals'.mindgap wrote: ↑Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:15 pmCheck out the Yahoo Financial Show...free Investment PornBluce wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:24 pmI'm too cheap to have cable, so the lure of Investment Porn does not affect me.J G Bankerton wrote: ↑Tue Aug 27, 2019 1:54 pmThere are scores of "self professed market timing experts" on CNBC.
Market timers are what caused the inverted yield curve.
https://cheddar.com/